Was 2011 a one-off for Djokovic?

Now before I am crucified I would just like to say that Djokovic deserves all the credit for his great performance last year. He played an incredible level and deserves all the acclaim he gets for this year.

But let's have a look at some stats:
Years Federer has won a Grand Slam so far: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010.
Years Nadal has won a Grand Slam so far: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012

As a wise man once said 'It is one thing getting to the top. It's staying there that's there hard part.'
Both these players, Federer especially, have not only reached the top of the game but stayed at a high level for so long. Nadal so consistent on clay early on and then leaping up on HC and grass, with Federer unstoppable outside clay- and even there it was only the greatest clay courter of all time he could stop him.

In 2011 Djokovic had an incredible year. He won 40+ matches in a row at the start, and even after losing to Fed in the RG, he bounced back to take the remaining two slams. Of course, to expect Djokovic to be able to play at this level is silly, and asking too much.
At the moment he is second in the 'ATP race thread' (for just 2012) although we will see how this will change after Wimbledon. But generally Djokovic's performances have really not been near his 2011 form so far.
He won the Australian, alright, but only just! In both the Semi and the Final he nearly lost- and only just managed to come through. Now he has two losses in FO and Wimby, both to the Fedal duo in 4 sets. (https://www.606v2.com/t32151-2012-fedal-bite-back).
So, this begs the question: Was 2011 just a one-off. Is Djokovic's usual level the type of tennis he played in 2010 and this year- with 2011 a simple one-off? We have seen Fedal get to the top, be challenged, and then show fortitude to get back and stay at the top. Whether Djokovic can do the same remains to be seen.

Great players can get the top. The greatest get to the top and stay there.

Eh quick answer is no! Won oz open this year, nearly took nadal to 5 at French open final and lost in semis at Wimbledon. You would swear the guy has gone out in 1st round. He has won 4 of the last 6 slams in fairness, every
Player is bound to lose occasionally. Even nadal went out early and he has been in great form

slashermcguirk wrote:Eh quick answer is no! Won oz open this year, nearly took nadal to 5 at French open final and lost in semis at Wimbledon. You would swear the guy has gone out in 1st round. He has won 4 of the last 6 slams in fairness, every
Player is bound to lose occasionally. Even nadal went out early and he has been in great form

Before 2011 we always found that when Djokovic needed to be mentally strong.. he faltered.
Many retirements.. all of which when he was losing.

Now is he going back to that mental 'mindset' (as HM Murdoch put it earlier)- this year after the AO he has faltered mentally in the biggest matches- DF on MP vs Rafa- the missed smash today against Federer in the key moment which gave Federer a chance to win the 3rd set.

He nearly lost the Ao semi and final because of strong play from his opponents who upped their game not because he played badly.

In terms of whether 2011 saw

a) the new, real Djokovic

or

b) a one off fluke

I think this is some truth in both. Maybe more in a).

Yea, it was such a fluke beating Nadal 6 times in a year...

Henman Bill wrote:He nearly lost the Ao semi and final because of strong play from his opponents who upped their game not because he played badly.

In terms of whether 2011 saw

a) the new, real Djokovic

or

b) a one off fluke

I think this is some truth in both. Maybe more in a).

That, my friend, is the question

He was poor today, Djokovic, mentally didn't look like he was there.

It's possible to answer the OP in the affirmative and still predict lengthy times at #1 and more Slams.

bogbrush wrote:It's possible to answer the OP in the affirmative and still predict lengthy times at #1 and more Slams.

Yes

If you give some detail backing up your opinion.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Yea, it was such a fluke beating Nadal 6 times in a year...

Also beat him in AO- so 7 times in a row!
It can't be a 'fluke', but was it a 'freak' period like Rosol except for a year.

Certainly didn't see Djokovic as 10+ slams material in 2010, but he will win 6 or 7 more with the motivation he has.

You can't fluke that.... people writing Djok off need to think again. He will be back.

Seifer Almasy wrote:You can't fluke that.... people writing Djok off need to think again. He will be back.

But can he reach the 2011 level?
Or will he go back to his old mental mindset...

No he will likely not reach the 2011 level, but he won't go back to 2009 level either.

He will probably settle somewhere in between and that should be enough to keep him at the top of the men's game.

It Must Be Love wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:You can't fluke that.... people writing Djok off need to think again. He will be back.

But can he reach the 2011 level?
Or will he go back to his old mental mindset...

I think he can reach that level in the odd slam... to maintain it for all 4? No. He is not that consistent.

I would say a resounding no.

This year for me who looks emotionally spent. With the passing of his grandfather so close to FO and also onto Wimbledon, it is very difficult for any person let alone athlete to rejuvenate themselves. I do actually have a lot of sympathy for the guy.

He won the Australian Open after nearly 10 hours on court with 2 matches he won it. He made the final of the FO on par form.

In a sense like Nadal where they have exausted their reserves in emotional effort. See where Federer in this 6 week period has found like a zen like inner peace with his game and has reaped the benefits. By no gimmies of course, but it is phases. How long could Nadal and Djokovic in fairness keep up their rampages in consecutive years and not experience a decline in form.

If Federer wins Wimbledon, the rankings and race to the US Open will start become very very interesting.

I don't think Djokovic can recover the year given with what he has achieved and how well the rest of the field have played. Next year however is a different story all together.

It's just impossible for him to play at the level he did last year.

Correction Nadal won 2010 USO. , Nadal from 2005 has won a slam every year till now.

How can u forget to include 2010 in Nadal's list when its considered as his best year ever in Tennis

Novak got lucky that he had an easy opponent in the USO and Wimbledon finals. Federer would have won them both if his back had stayed in good shape.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Novak got lucky that he had an easy opponent in the USO and Wimbledon finals. Federer would have won them both if his back had stayed in good shape.

Shame Fed has a 2-8 record in slams against this 'easy opponent.'

Anyway back on topic, which Nole will turn up for the rest of the year? Can he go back on 2011 form, or will he slip?

Nadal is not easy to handle, the only player who has managed to deal with Nadal is Djokovic and he only managed to do it last year.

Things look a tad grim, surrendering his Wimbledon title rather meekly is disappointing. SoCal will be immensely disappointed with the unforced error count but what lost him the match was Fed's serve holding up. Even in the final game of the match I wasn't too worried Fed would drop serve because he'd been so consistent throughout the match. Its not all bad for Djokovic, the USO is still up for grabs but I repeatedly said even after the Aussie Open earlier this year and also last year, no player apart from Fed has gone onto to win more 3 slams the following year after clinching 3. Still, Djokoviccould end up with both the hard court slams which is not to shabby and a better year slam wise than Fed or Nadal. We'll see how he responds after this upset!

luciusmann wrote:Nadal is not easy to handle, the only player who has managed to deal with Nadal is Djokovic and he only managed to do it last year.

Things look a tad grim, surrendering his Wimbledon title rather meekly is disappointing. SoCal will be immensely disappointed with the unforced error count but what lost him the match was Fed's serve holding up. Even in the final game of the match I wasn't too worried Fed would drop serve because he'd been so consistent throughout the match. Its not all bad for Djokovic, the USO is still up for grabs but I repeatedly said even after the Aussie Open earlier this year and also last year, no player apart from Fed has gone onto to win more 3 slams the following year after clinching 3. Still, Djokoviccould end up with both the hard court slams which is not to shabby and a better year slam wise than Fed or Nadal. We'll see how he responds after this upset!

Yes I think this was a really poor performance from Djoko.
Not only Fed served better, it was Djokovic who made far too many unforced errors from the baseline.

Yes 2011 was a one off. To play at that level for two thirds of the season will probably never be seen again. It was unbelievable. Awesome. Any superlative you want to throw at it.

We'll probably not see a run like he had for another generation, its almost impossible to replicate.

However, it's far from the end of Novak as a major winner, and as a world number 1. I actually think he's been a credit to himself and the sport the way he's conducted himself as a world number 1. And if he loses that ranking on Sunday, I'm certain it won't be the last time we see him there.

Yes, 2011 was a one off. But Novak will still push towards 10 slams in my opinion, and maybe beyond.

I was surprised to see so many unforced errors but then again I was surprised to see Fed's serve holding up even in pressure situations. I did mention to HM Murdoch and SoCal that I thought Djokovic would find it harder to deal with the pressure but anyone who saw that match wouldn't come away thinking that Djokovic handled the mental aspects of that match well. As I said before, when more has been @ stake in the match besides a final appearance, Djokovic had found it tough. This was also seen last month @ the French Open. Just like then there were critical double faults, there was also a critical double fault in this match (thankfully not on a break point or match point this time but it did set up a break point).

Of course it was a one off year. Been saying that since last year's Basel, where I witnessed live Nishikori serving him a bagel.

slashermcguirk wrote:Eh quick answer is no! Won oz open this year, nearly took nadal to 5 at French open final and lost in semis at Wimbledon. You would swear the guy has gone out in 1st round. He has won 4 of the last 6 slams in fairness, every
Player is bound to lose occasionally. Even nadal went out early and he has been in great form

Precisely, a 5 slam winner isn't a fluke. The guy has been in the top 3 three in the world for 5 years. Wishful thinking IMBL, I think Novak barring an injury will be duking it out for slams and the number 1 ranking for some time to come.

It Must Be Love wrote:

bogbrush wrote:It's possible to answer the OP in the affirmative and still predict lengthy times at #1 and more Slams.

Yes

If you give some detail backing up your opinion.

By that I mean that it's possible that he could never again win 3 and make a Semi in one year but still have great years.
Still not a fluke though. The nearest thing to be called that was his whack at the USO, but that would be harsh.

I'd say the answer lies in the middle. The Novak we see now is improved immensely over the one from a couple of years back, however the total invulnerability seems to have faded slightly. He also seems to be letting that negative mental mindset ever so slightly inside - e.g when his head dropped a couple of times today. I think ultimately 2011 was him riding a tidal wave of hunger and confidence that is simply impossible to sustain/maintain. Also though i don't take today as too much of a marker, as he has never played Federer on grass and i think he may have been daunted by feds record there.

So for me he is right up there and in his prime, but no one should have ever been expecting the domination to continue with the quality of Fedal lurking and Murray trying to cruise up behind.

Agree Tom a very tough group at the top right now that and maybe we won't see a run like 2011. I think he still has room for growth as a player. either way I still think he will finish this year as number 1 and I think he will be in the thick of things for the slams and the top ranking for the next few years. I believe this wimbeldong was his 9th straight semi at a grandslam so that bodes well for future slam chances.

Tom_____ wrote:I'd say the answer lies in the middle. The Novak we see now is improved immensely over the one from a couple of years back, however the total invulnerability seems to have faded slightly. He also seems to be letting that negative mental mindset ever so slightly inside - e.g when his head dropped a couple of times today. I think ultimately 2011 was him riding a tidal wave of hunger and confidence that is simply impossible to sustain/maintain. Also though i don't take today as too much of a marker, as he has never played Federer on grass and i think he may have been daunted before feds record there.

So for me he is right up there and in his prime, but no one should have ever been expecting the domination to continue with the quality of Fedal lurking and Murray trying to cruise up behind.

Can't disagree with that.

Definition of a one off fluke is a one slam wonder. How many slams did Novak win last year and then early this one?

Don't ask daft questions and you won't get irate responses!

I think it will be a long while before anyone emulates the sheer aura of invincibility Djokovic had for a good proportion of last year but it was by no means a fluke. To compare it to a career in music, this year is like the follow up to an all time best selling album. No matter how good it is nothing but total domination will appear like a success. He is doing great and will be one of the favourites for probably the next 16-20 slams.

I'm not saying it was a fluke.
But I do believe his level in 2011 was a one-off. I do not believe he will ever reach that level again- not for such a prolonged period of time.


Also mentally I believe Djokovic is feeling the pressure- maybe this is hindering him?

Think maybe the tough schedule of the past couple of years is catching up with him maybe?

He will win more slams, but I doubt we will see another 2011 year. Heck we probably won't see another 2011 year from any other player for a long time

Look at Nadal went from 2008 dominating than 2009 only 1 slam which then repeated in his dominating 2010 to 1 slam in 2011. Only Federer was able to get 3 in a year then come back and get 3 again.

Also stop getting overly defensive "amritia3ee", give yourself a stroke kid.

It Must Be Love wrote:I'm not saying it was a fluke.
But I do believe his level in 2011 was a one-off. I do not believe he will ever reach that level again- not for such a prolonged period of time.


Also mentally I believe Djokovic is feeling the pressure- maybe this is hindering him?

If you mean by fluke that last year was phenomenal in that he won 3 slams and couldn't repeat that this year, then yes, I'd agree with that. I think many got a little ahead of themselves when he won the Aussie Open this year and made the RG final that he would go on and probably win Wimbledon and very likely the USO and thus repeat last year. Only one man has done that before and that was Federer himself! I remember many others saying that Djokovic would lower the intensity for Masters 1000 tournaments but peak for the slams and therefore do what Federer had been able to do. Well, I didn't think it was likely then and it's been proven now. I still think Djokovic would be the favourite for the USO (although I'll be interested to see how the American hard court summer swing goes) but 2 slams (if he does it) isn't shabby.

However, if Fed wins Wimbledon on Sunday, I think that will be a shot in the arm for him and he will feel supremely confident with a slam actually under his belt and he will be able to push Djokovic @ the USO but they won't meet in the semis now so that would be the final if they both made it, given how the last 2 USO semis have been so close, you sense in a final Fed could edge it but that's for another time! When you think about it, Fed's mini come back is remarkable, even if he doesn't win Wimbledon, as a Fed fan I'm proud he hasn't allowed the media narrative of being an old ineffective has been to become the case.

Djoko will be back. His start to last year was incredible and it's hard to see anyone repeating it any time soon.
OK, he had a tough loss to Rog yesterday but Fed did have match points against him at two successive USOs and JWT could, praps should, have beaten Nole at RG this year. So there have been warning signs.
Djoko looked, for the first time in ages, a little mentally frail in the Rog S-F yesterday and made far more UEs than usual. But you often learn more from your defeats than your victories. Nole is gonna be there or there abouts for some time to come.

I know this year would never be as good as 2011, but Djokovic has so far disappointed me this year.
Mentally especially he has struggled in the bigger points, which is surprising and unexpected for a great champion like Djokovic.

The quality of his play this year for me has been slightly better than 2008. You could argue 'he has reached the latter stages of all the Grand Slams' but after AO he has been poor in the big matches. He loses 3 finals in a row to Nadal, OK Nadal is the king of clay, but he made double faults match point down twice.
Wimbledon, he was poor against Roger, making many unforced errors. Against Roger, a great player on grass, making the poor errors he was making is not affordable. So poor in the first set of Cincy final against Roger, losing 6-0, then loses key points in tiebreak of 2nd set. He won Toronto, but did not have to beat any top 5 player there.
And now in the US, look at the errors he made in the crucial game in the second set 6-5 down! That game arguably cost him the match.

Titles:
2006- 1
2007- 5
2008- 4 (1 slam)
2009- 5
2010- 2
2011- 10 (3 Slams)
2012 (so far)- 3 (1 Slam)

So 2011 does look like an anomaly here, title wise.

Was 2011 a one-off. Not sure what you mean, The game continues to evolve from one year to the next. 2011 was Djokovic's real break-through year. He has maintained that as he is right at the top level in 2012. In 2010 he was still trailing behind Federer and Nadal.

All that's happened in 2012 is that Murray has got better and so has Federer. Wimbledon seemed to play a little more slippery than in 2011 - and Djokovic was like an ice skater on the surface compared to the sure footedness of Federer. However Djokovic thrashed Federer on the clay (FO 2012 SF). So 2011 is not a one-off, Djokovic is still there or there abouts at No 1-ish.

With your stats you also have to include finals and semi-finals.

Slams 2012 Won 1
Two finals (five sets and four sets)
One semi-final.

I seem to recall that on some of his slam successes in 2011 he had match points against him (e.g. USO 2011 SF).

Nore Staat wrote:Was 2011 a one-off. Not sure what you mean, The game continues to evolve from one year to the next. 2011 was Djokovic's real break-through year. He has maintained that as he is right at the top level in 2012. In 2010 he was still trailing behind Federer and Nadal.

All that's happened in 2012 is that Murray has got better and so has Federer. Wimbledon seemed to play a little more slippery than in 2011 - and Djokovic was like an ice skater on the surface compared to the sure footedness of Federer. However Djokovic thrashed Federer on the clay (FO 2012 SF). So 2011 is not a one-off, Djokovic is still there or there abouts at No 1-ish.

Well Nadal changed his game to counter Djokovic, then succumbed to injury.
Did Federer improve that much? I believe Federer's level was nearly as high as in 2011- remember he was sensational in the FO 2011 and nearly beat him in USO 2011 too.
Murray I feel has improved under Lendl, but I still think Djoko 2011 beats Murray 2012.

Nore Staat wrote:With your stats you also have to include finals and semi-finals.

Slams 2012 Won 1
Two finals (five sets and four sets)
One semi-final.

Yes
It's his second best year so far.

I am guessing Rafa will be his normal self come AO 2013. Rafa looked fine to me in his last match against Rosol (Rafa nearly won it - maybe he would have if he was really a few percent below par due to onset of knee issues).

Djoko has at least one more year in him where he wins 2 or 3 slams in a season. I know this is not a popular belief here on this site but between the middle of 2010 and the end of 2010 he got better and got even better in the offseason. I respect IMBL's opinion but she is not a close observer of Novak's game, no player on the tour works as tirelessly to add to his game and his body like Djoko. T

The big hurdle for Novak was his serve which was one of the worst serves forget about in the top 10 or 20 but in the entire top 50. This hurdle was pretty much overcome by Davis Cup of 2010 when he served lights out. He was the only player in the top 50 2010 with more doubles than aces. Now he isn't the biggest server on tour but he has improved it and gotten back the very quality delivery he had back in 08 and 07. O9 and 10 represented a failed a experiment with his serve, a new racquet, and terrible sharapova type yips. Since that time the serve has been much, much better like it was originally. This isn't a case of Nadal who came into the tour serving 110 and now has built a serve out of scratch. This was a man whose serve was a weapon at the AO 2008 and all through the early part of his career but now was pitiful in that regards. Lesser players like Tsonga and Roddick who he dominated early in his career started to have success against him in multiple matches during this time.

But all things considered with easily the worst serve in the top 30 or 40 guys he managed to finish #3 in the world and lead the tour in break percentage. So it wasn't much of a mystery that when he solved his serve problems that his results skyrocketed. Of course other things improved simultaneously his fitness and that also was a key factor.

This year he has been up and down. Not his best play frankly. I think Novak is the most complete baseliner maybe in the history of the game that is how he managed to finish top 3 with a bad WTA serve in 2009 and 2010. This year the issues have been more mental as opposed to technical like they were in 09 and 10. Once he gets that little bit of focus and belief back look out that is my honest opinion.

SoCal

Interesting observation about Djokovic's serve. My impression in the Olympic semi-final v Murray was that something just didn't look quite 'right' about it, as though he wasn't getting his racket arm back enough with and following the ball toss - the result was an unconvincing display (his first serves were mainly around 110-115mph and not with great accuracy, whereas he is usually in the low 120s and accurate) and him losing a match quite heavily. The USO final was better (even allowing for the conditions), but was still not quite enough to win, although that match probably turned on the result of the first set tie-breaker.

Most complete baseliner? Not sure, although certainly would be in the debate with Federer, Nadal and Agassi, each of who had somewhat different styles.

Not convinced he will ever play as well again as he did for the first part of 2011, but then very few players have ever gone on a comparable run (and history suggests that such great years are very rarely able to reproduce it, Federer in 05 and 06 maybe the best ever back to back years). However, playing a little less well than the heights of 2011 still makes Djokovic a very strong challenger at all 4 slams and for the #1 ranking, and I'd still expect him to pick up 1 or 2 slams a year for the next two or three years.

Socal I would agree with your judgment.
I don't think Novak has been at his best this year, and for me 2011 so far really does stand out as by far his best year.

But I also agree that Djokovic has the ability to pick himself up, and win many more Slams, there is no doubt.

dummy_half wrote:SoCal

Interesting observation about Djokovic's serve. My impression in the Olympic semi-final v Murray was that something just didn't look quite 'right' about it, as though he wasn't getting his racket arm back enough with and following the ball toss - the result was an unconvincing display (his first serves were mainly around 110-115mph and not with great accuracy, whereas he is usually in the low 120s and accurate) and him losing a match quite heavily. The USO final was better (even allowing for the conditions), but was still not quite enough to win, although that match probably turned on the result of the first set tie-breaker.

Djokovic's serve was superb at the start of 2008. then in 2009 it dramatically fell away.
In 2011 of course it improved a lot, but this year in key moments it has let him down. Double faulting in key moments, and he simply hasn't looked assured on serve.

In 2011 of course it improved a lot, but this year in key moments it has let him down. Double faulting in key moments, and he simply hasn't looked assured on serve.

He is intent on spinning the ball in on serve again, like in 2009/10.

Nadal actually plays with less spin on his first serve than Djokovic

dummy_half wrote:SoCal

Interesting observation about Djokovic's serve. My impression in the Olympic semi-final v Murray was that something just didn't look quite 'right' about it, as though he wasn't getting his racket arm back enough with and following the ball toss - the result was an unconvincing display (his first serves were mainly around 110-115mph and not with great accuracy, whereas he is usually in the low 120s and accurate) and him losing a match quite heavily. The USO final was better (even allowing for the conditions), but was still not quite enough to win, although that match probably turned on the result of the first set tie-breaker.

Most complete baseliner? Not sure, although certainly would be in the debate with Federer, Nadal and Agassi, each of who had somewhat different styles.

Not convinced he will ever play as well again as he did for the first part of 2011, but then very few players have ever gone on a comparable run (and history suggests that such great years are very rarely able to reproduce it, Federer in 05 and 06 maybe the best ever back to back years). However, playing a little less well than the heights of 2011 still makes Djokovic a very strong challenger at all 4 slams and for the #1 ranking, and I'd still expect him to pick up 1 or 2 slams a year for the next two or three years.

Dummy when I mean complete compare all those players you listed Nadal, Agassi, and Federer and Djoko out points them when purely looking at baseline play. Andre had the better forehand and I would say even on the backhand but the speed of Djokovic puts him in another league defensively. Federer better forehand but not as good speed wise even in his peak and Djoko has the big edge in backhand. Nadal, Djoko's match in speed, defense, and fitness but I wouldn't rate his forehand better than Djoko's on a hardcourt on clay I would, and his backhand is not as lethal especially up the line as Djokos.

Actually dummy think Novak has served real well this year, I never have seen him get as many free points and aces with as little doubles. But his problem on serve has really been more this season with how he has backed it up with his forehand, there is almost a service game every set this year where he goes on walkabout with the forehand. He makes two or three quick errors from neutral balls or in points that he is ahead in and dictating. His serve is like Nadal's serve and many others a set up for the big forehand but there seems to be more up and down with the forehand than he has had with that shot in some time. It just seems that he goes through a lull mentally and gifts a quick succession of errors on points he should win in at least one service game a match or set.

Personally I think Djokovic's backhand has made far more unforced errors than last year.
You can watch the Wimbledon semi-final, how many times does he miss that normally reliable back-hand.

I think Djokovic will pick himself up though, he is a great player and I think he will 3 slams next year. With Nadal injured and out, Federer ageing, apart from Murray there really isn't much competition for him at the moment.

It Must Be Love wrote:Personally I think Djokovic's backhand has made far more unforced errors than last year.
You can watch the Wimbledon semi-final, how many times does he miss that normally reliable back-hand.

I think Djokovic will pick himself up though, he is a great player and I think he will 3 slams next year. With Nadal injured and out, Federer ageing, apart from Murray there really isn't much competition for him at the moment.

My over under slams for him next year is 2. With his health willing and with his strong bond with Vajda when he gets a chance to go back to the lab he will retool and comeback a bit better. The big question is Nadal, if nadal is healthy no question he is in any tournament and any #1 race we could discuss. To me that is just the lingering question mark that despite being a Djoko fan I hope he comes back as healthy as can be. He could win 3 as well lets remember he is in the semis and finals of all these slams and the margins between him lifting the trophy and losing in the semis or finals is not that big. But he has been off this year and I think it isn't technical. It isn't like one shot is always misfiring like the serve was in 09, there seems to be a bit of tension and loss of focus in his general play and demeanor from last year. One thing I have always loved about novak is his ambition he isn't going to rest, he isn't going to be one of those champions that has a great year and decides to go on extended vacation ala Wilander or Becker.