Is It A New Djokovic In 2011?

He has won almost everything there is to win barring the French Open but is there anything different about the quality of Djokovics tennis compared with previous years? IMO he has always been a very good tennis player but nothing has really changed in his game this year apart from confidence. He has won some close matches recently against both Nadal and Federer but he has always run them both close. What does seem to be a bit dissapointing this year is the quality of opposition outside the top few players particualy within the top 10.

I disagree last year he was barely in the top 50 for percentage of service games held. This year he is just behind Ivo Karlovic at #2 in the ATP in hold percentage. Last year he had a huge serving and double faulting problem. Now while his serve isn't overwhelming it is really getting the job done, particularly his second serve which is proving very difficult for his opponents to attack successfully. The biggest improvement in his game is his serve bar none.

Erm, I kinda agree. I think he looks fitter, and the consistency of his shots has improved, but that's more confidence and belief than anything technical in my opinion. A year ago it was very much a top 2, and Murray and Djokovic behind them.

The way Djoko has stepped it up this year just shows that it comes down to belief and who wants it most. It's also a good lesson for Andy Murray. He should look at Djokovic and train harder than ever, get fitter than ever and push more than he ever has before. Djokovic has shown the way.

The look on his face on Sunday said to me that he had no doubt he was going to win that final. A year ago he simply didn't look anywhere near as confident. Just goes to show how much of the game is about belief when you're talking about the difference between the top players at the highest level.

The man himself seems to agree that it's all about belief, confidence and mentality:


Djokovic says his extraordinary dominance over the past six months, in which he lost only once, to Roger Federer, in 49 matches, was down to a "change in my head" when he helped Serbia win the Davis Cup in December. It gave him the self-belief he had previously lacked against the two best players in the history of the game. "The first six months of 2010 were not good for me because I struggled with my health, struggled mentally as well," he said. "There was a lot of doubt, a lot of ups and downs.

"[Nadal and Federer] always perform their best tennis in the last four [the semi-finals onwards] of a grand slam. That's been the case the past five or six years. I knew that if I wanted to win against them in the semi-finals and finals of grand slams I had to raise my game.

"They made me a better player and right now, with that mental switch that I have, I believe in myself on the court much more than I did before."

Danny, I agree that confidence has a lot to do with it. But if he was still flailing all over the place with his serve, a serve that had developed a technical hitch, do you think he would be so confident. The confidence is a byproduct of two improvements in Djokovic's game. First, his serve, and secondly finding the fix for his allergy and respiratory problems. These two issues held him back last year. Novak was always a cocky or confident player. But having confidence and lacking a serve or having breathing issues takes away from your confidence. Until he worked out those two issues he wouldn't have anything to feel confident about.

socal - so do you think the technical issues Murray has with his serve (too many moving body parts, making it hard to control) is what is holding him back from slam victories? After all, his return stats are as good as anyones.

Or do you think it is within him already, taking a bit off the first serve maybe, playing the slice more often?

Going back to Novak, possibly my favourie thing about him this year is when he nails a return and gives off that animal roar that indicates he knows its a winner from the second he hits it. Great theatre.

socal1976 wrote:I disagree last year he was barely in the top 50 for percentage of service games held. This year he is just behind Ivo Karlovic at #2 in the ATP in hold percentage. Last year he had a huge serving and double faulting problem. Now while his serve isn't overwhelming it is really getting the job done, particularly his second serve which is proving very difficult for his opponents to attack successfully. The biggest improvement in his game is his serve bar none.

This is exactly the point that most commentators make. If the stats show that he's 2nd only to Karlovic then I won't argue with the stats. However if Karlovic tops that particular chart then I doubt if that particular figure alone means much. Djokovic to me has always had a good serve. His consistancy has been better this year but that could be confidence? Its still looked more shaky when he has been pressed its just that he hasn't been pressed much. In the 3rd set of the final with Nadal it definately looked shaky and also at the beginning of the fourth. Would it have held up if Nadal had broken in that first game?

Also his backhand down the line has always been spectacular. One of the best shots in tennis?

I wasn't trying to say Djokovic wasn't good. IMO he is a great player. I do think in the past he was under estimated and maybe now because he is achieving so much many believe its because of a dramatic change in his quality of play.

hawkeye wrote:He has won almost everything there is to win barring the French Open but is there anything different about the quality of Djokovics tennis compared with previous years? IMO he has always been a very good tennis player but nothing has really changed in his game this year apart from confidence. He has won some close matches recently against both Nadal and Federer but he has always run them both close. What does seem to be a bit dissapointing this year is the quality of opposition outside the top few players particualy within the top 10.

That's quite true actually. He has however improved his pace on the court and his stamina which certainly has improved his confidence.

Dany, I think Murray has a decent enough first serve, I think it is his second serve that either is to easy to read or doesn't get good enough depth with. If Murray has a techinical hitch it is the forehand. He doesn't have the fluid power and the ability to go up the line like many other of the really top players do.

The issues of Djokovic's serve are well documented. In early 2009 he changes racquets to head, in the same time period of 09 he adds a new serve with Todd martin and goes in to a huge funk with his serve. In the middle of 2010 he can martin and goes back to the old serve but it takes a few months to get right again like it used to be prior to 09. The first time I saw Novak serve with this quality was davis cup final. He was virtually unbreakable against the french team. From there on out it has been from strength to strength. I posit that if his serve was the same serve as early last year well then he would have no confidence, nothing wrecks your confidence like getting broken regularly.

Winning DC and the confidence that instilled in him was also a key factor.

Has anyone considered that Federer and Nadal might be declining?

I mean, to win things you have to beat players, not attain a new standard, and while it's obvious Federer should be well down the slop at almost 30 now, many including myself have felt Nadal would come back sooner rather than later.

Just a thought, and it doesn't preclude Djokovic having improved. But he did recently lose on a clay court against an old player on his worst surface.

It doesn't bode well if Nadal is declining already. I thought we were entering his 'peak' years. It was around Nadal's age that Federer was regularly winning 3 slams a year. He can't win 3 this year anymore, but if he wins the USO, he'll be 2 slams ahead of Fed @ the same age, otherwise, just the one. To keep up, he'd need to win either 1 or 2 next year, depending on if he wins the USO this year. I don't rate his chances of winning the Australian Open highly either, nor Wimbledon so it doesn't look too good for him at the moment, but you never know, he could make a come back. He might need to beat Djokovic first though.

socal - You say his first serve is decent enough, I would argue that when it goes in it is an excellent first serve... But the fact is it doesn't go in anywhere near as much as the other 3 players.

Murray's return stats are as good as anyone, but I don't think he's even in the top 10 for either percentage of service games won or percentage of first serves in.

I think that is a technical issue. There are so many variables in his movement when serving, lots of different moving body parts that makes it difficult to control as each serve looks a bit different in terms of his movements. He has said himself that he 'just goes for it' on a lot of first serves because when it goes in more often than not wins him the point, but if he's only getting around 50% in that's no real use in the crunch games, especially when his second serve is so attackable.

I'd like to see him try and change it completely, but that's probably unrealistic at 24.... So failing that take a bit off his first serve to try and get it up to 68-70%. Sure, it would mean less unreturns serves and aces, but it would allow him to have more control over his service games. Also, he has a great wide slice serve which he barely uses.

Not sure I agree the forehand is that much of a 'weakness'. Fact is, if his return stats are so good there can't be a lot wrong with many of his shots. Especially as a lot of players do serve to and attack the forehand, and yet his return stats aren't bettered by anyone.

I think he's adapted well to his new racquet (YouTek IG 18/20) but he has also got a much more comfortable serve and rarely gives you any free points anymore, which he was doing alot in 09 and half of last season..

I am of the view that Federer is not declining as much as the others are constantly improving....physically.

He is in my view better than in 2006 even if slower and less consistent and has certainly more problems recovering from a tough match....but his peak form now is better than in the past.

He, like everybody else, has learnt a lot over the past 5 years.

I however expect to see a tangible decline from now on.....but still with great peaks. His match v Nadal in Madrid or Djoko in Paris are in my view clear proof of his great progress since 2006/7.

He is now tested physically like he never was pre 2008. That's something we have to take into account..especially from a player we know already struggled then against guys like Hewitt.

He aint better than 06 in my opinion, maybe in the FO he was as good as 06 but other than that I haven't been convinced.

We have to look at the opposition. in 2006 we did not have as fit players to test him.

I think its fair to surmise that Fed particularly, and Nadal maybe, are declining. Who knows though - its hard to gauge because there is no constant yardstick in tennis, the game moves on all the time.

Nadal has been playing at a high level on tour for a long time now - since 2004 really, thats almost 7 years at #1/#2 in the world which is a long time in this present day and age. Ok, he's only 25 but he;s been hard at it since an 17/18 year old. Djokovic has been much less successful in previous years and his peak is now here.

How longs a player stays at peak for isnt assured, or they may dip and peak many times before a general decline occurs. I think Nadal is just suffering from mental burn-out at the moment, his year by most standards has been pretty amazing really. Lets see how he goes for the rest of the year before we start to draw many conclusions but its not out of the realm of impossibility he's starting to decline - even the loss of 1-2% can make all the difference if others are improving too - the tipping point is reach sooner.

It's obvious Djokovic has improvedby the way he has been beating the rest the of the field. Nadal is certainly not declining.

Had he lost his close match v Petzchner or Haase last year, woudl we have said he was declining? Nadal lost very close matches in IW and MIami v a much improved Djoko. Nadal lost against a weaker Djoko in 2010 and 2009 There is certainly no argument to say that Nadal is declining.

I agree Tenez, he's lost most of his matches to one player. If his losses start to spread across to other players (like Federer) then there's case he is declining, but that isn't happening yet. Time will tell.

Murray is improving, right? Nadal took Murray apart and it sure looked to me that Nadal had improved plenty.

That's what happens when your forehand is feeble, droogle.

Federer and Nadal declining? Based on one tourament? Just a few weeks ago Federer beat Djokovic at FO (in very high quality match) and Nadal came away with the trophy. At Wimbledon again it was two of the top three in the final. Based on recent evidence it appears little has changed. A very dominant top three with so far this year relatively weak opposition.

He is the new Djoko as the old Djoko never beat Nadal 5 times in a row.

wow wrote:
He is the new Djoko as the old Djoko never beat Nadal 5 times in a row.

Djokovic has beaten Nadal 3 times in a row before now... and Nadal has beaten Djokovic 5 times in a row. So whats changed?

hawkeye wrote:

wow wrote:
He is the new Djoko as the old Djoko never beat Nadal 5 times in a row.

Djokovic has beaten Nadal 3 times in a row before now... and Nadal has beaten Djokovic 5 times in a row. So whats changed?

Nadal has beaten lots of players 5 times in a row but no one has ever beaten Nadal 5 times in a row and that is a significant change.

3 times in a row or 5 times in a row. Nadal and Djokovic have played some close matches in the past and hopefully will continue to do so in the future. However I don't see any drastic changes in Djokovics game that indicate that Nadal won't continue to win his fair share in the future.

hawkeye wrote:3 times in a row or 5 times in a row. Nadal and Djokovic have played some close matches in the past and hopefully will continue to do so in the future. However I don't see any drastic changes in Djokovics game that indicate that Nadal won't continue to win his fair share in the future.

Before 2011 h2h was 16-7 and now it is 16-12. Djoko had always run Nadal closer but was not able to cross that threshold.Now that has been done and Djoko has beaten Nadal in a slam as well and taken the no. 1 ranking away from him.

This Djoko is much more serious and he means business like he showed in Wimby final. You watch the match and you can see the fire in his eyes, the confidence and the belief that he will come out as the winner. He is no more the old Djoker.

Also the matches before 2011 were not the finals. In 2011, the matches were finals and the pressure was more.

wow

If the difference between the old Novak and the new is as you say "the fire in his eyes, the confidence and the belief that he will come out as the winner." and not a difference in his quality of play then things can change again relatively easily. Maybe if Nadal hadn't given that first set away in the final so easily or had won the break point in the first game of the fourth set? Djokovic didn't look or play super confident in the third set in fact he looked like the imagined Djokovic of old.

I'm not trying to dismiss Djokovics achievements. He's had an amazing year. IMO until he went on this winning streak he didn't get the recognition he deserved.

Djokovic has said he lost focus in the third set and started playing in a more relaxed way and we saw the result. It was more the Djokovic of old, indulging in a mini mental meltdown, but it didn't matter, two sets down against a player like Djokovic, and Djokovic knowing he had the time to recover for the next set, Nadal was pretty much finished (that's not to say he didn't have his chances afterwards).

Interestingly, no player has got into double digit wins over Nadal until now with Djokovic. Nor has any player had double digits wins over Federer apart from Nadal - all adds to the intriguing debate about match ups.

luciusmann wrote:Djokovic has said he lost focus in the third set and started playing in a more relaxed way and we saw the result. It was more the Djokovic of old, indulging in a mini mental meltdown, but it didn't matter, two sets down against a player like Djokovic, and Djokovic knowing he had the time to recover for the next set, Nadal was pretty much finished (that's not to say he didn't have his chances afterwards).

Interestingly, no player has got into double digit wins over Nadal until now with Djokovic. Nor has any player had double digits wins over Federer apart from Nadal - all adds to the intriguing debate about match ups.

I don't think either player played particularly well in the Wimbledon final so maybe its not the best match to judge their rivalry with. Djokovic didn't do anything different or play at a higher standard than he did prior to 2011. Djokovic was in a great position when he went 2 sets to love up but if he had gone down a break in the fourth against a player like Nadal things may have got a little tough for him. Djokovic looked very wobbly in that first game. If Nadal had got the break and hung it to take the fourth set Nadal probably would have been the favourite to take the title.

If? But? Shame it didn't happen as it could have been a great 5th set...

It might have been, although, if I'm correct, they played the 4 sets in 2 hours 29 minutes, even if it went to a fifth set, I doubt Nadal would have been able to rescue the match. Something like 5 sets over 4 hours might have done it, but certainly not around 3 hours.

I agree, Djokovic didn't play that differently (there were improvements, but were not talking about dramatic differences and he's said that), he just played that bit more consistently though and that put Rafa under more pressure. Djokovic did look like the player who was able to break at will in that match, whereas Rafa had to work hard to get his breaks and often got them when Djokovic lost focus.

A good match to watch is the Miami match earlier in the year, where it went all the way and it turned into a real slugfest (you think Wimbledon is something, you ain't seen anything yet!), with Djokovic winning the final set in a tie breaker. Of course, Wimbledon doesn't have a tie breaker in the final set so that does change things, and that certainly might have favoured Rafa, so I see what you're getting at.

hawkeye wrote:3 times in a row or 5 times in a row. Nadal and Djokovic have played some close matches in the past and hopefully will continue to do so in the future. However I don't see any drastic changes in Djokovics game that indicate that Nadal won't continue to win his fair share in the future.

Maybe those matches Nadal won were thight,but,ownage is ownage. In 2010 everybody was saying "Rafa owns Novak",so it should work same way around...

masterplanl wrote:

hawkeye wrote:3 times in a row or 5 times in a row. Nadal and Djokovic have played some close matches in the past and hopefully will continue to do so in the future. However I don't see any drastic changes in Djokovics game that indicate that Nadal won't continue to win his fair share in the future.

Maybe those matches Nadal won were thight,but,ownage is ownage. In 2010 everybody was saying "Rafa owns Novak",so it should work same way around...

IMO anyone that said "Rafa owned Djokovic" prior to this year was wrong. Just as anyone saying the reverse is now. Djokovic hasn't drastically improved and Nadal hasn't declined. I expect to continue to see some close matches between them in the future and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nadal winning 3 or 5 times in a row again.

Oh I don't think I can see it that way, hawkeye. My perspective is that what was a close match leaning Nadals way has become less close, and in Djokovics' favour. I'd expect another 3 matches if held at Wimbledon right now to all go the same way.

The clay match I saw, in Madrid, really looked quite clear cut to me. More so that Indian Wells or Miami. That's why I've suggested Nadal might actually have a better chance at faster courts because he needs some help to get the ball out of Djokovics' reach.

bogbrush

We shall have to wait and see...