World Rugby Rankings

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:



Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)



Original thread:
https://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

I would love if Scotland got to 4th ranking.

World rankings after weekend

1	NEW ZEALAND	94.78
2	ENGLAND	91.01
3	AUSTRALIA	86.35
4	IRELAND	83.18(-1.00)
5	SCOTLAND	82.18
6(+1)	WALES	82.16(1.00)
7(-1)	SOUTH AFRICA	81.79
8	FRANCE	81.21(0.64)
9	ARGENTINA	79.91
10	FIJI	76.46
11	JAPAN	74.23
12	GEORGIA	74.14
13	TONGA	71.94
14(+1)	SAMOA	71.25
15(-1)	ITALY	71.17(-0.64)

Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th

When are the seeding groups officially made?

propdavid_london wrote:When are the seeding groups officially made?

May.

poissonrouge wrote:World rankings after weekend

1	NEW ZEALAND	94.78
2	ENGLAND	91.01
3	AUSTRALIA	86.35
4	IRELAND	83.18(-1.00)
5	SCOTLAND	82.18
6(+1)	WALES	82.16(1.00)
7(-1)	SOUTH AFRICA	81.79
8	FRANCE	81.21(0.64)
9	ARGENTINA	79.91
10	FIJI	76.46
11	JAPAN	74.23
12	GEORGIA	74.14
13	TONGA	71.94
14(+1)	SAMOA	71.25
15(-1)	ITALY	71.17(-0.64)

Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.

Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.

poissonrouge wrote:

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.

Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.

It is now - it wasn't when I posted. Been a bit thick and only just worked out that South Africa and Samoa moving is because of Wales and Italy gaining and losing points.

New OP

The much maligned ranking system has once again acted as a pretty relaible indicator of victors and margins for the 6 nations. If you include the +3 home wieghting then only one game hasnt gone the way the pre match rankings had suggested, and all the games with a +10 or greater ratings differnetial have been won by 15 points plus.
Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.

Using that approach we come to the startling conclusion that England should beat Ireland in a competitive game
France should beat Wales in a close game
And Scotland should add further embaressment to Italys campaign.

Which is what most people would predict as the likely outcomes anyway. But its still a thing. The curveball may be France ripping up their team sheet as they have a habit of doing ..plus the effects on some players of the uncertainty around Racing/Stade. Scotland injuries too could test their squad depth (which they dont have). And then theres Englands record in these final "gimme" games for a title/grand slam.

Even so I know where the smart money is (tax free offshore low risk investment portfolios)


Only England know which pot they will be in for the world cup draw. Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot. France could drop below Argentina into pot 3 which would certainly be a thing. It leaves the possibility of a world cup group with New Zealand, South Africa, and France in it. Theres also an the extreme oustide chance that Italy win by 15+ and leapfrog Samoa Tonga and Georgia to sneak 12th spot and pot 3.

Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot.

Sorry Scotland cannot get to 4th. They are currently on 82.18 ranking points. They cannot increase that as they are more than 10pts ahead of Italy. Lowest Ireland can drop is to 82.40 pts (lose by >15pts against England). So Scotland cannot get above Ireland - ipso facto Scotland cannot get to 4th.

Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.

Scotland Wales and Scotland Ireland also went against the ranking prediction surely?

OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1	NEW ZEALAND	94.78
2	ENGLAND	89.53
3	AUSTRALIA	86.35
4	IRELAND	84.66
5	SCOTLAND	82.18
6	FRANCE	82.00
7	SOUTH AFRICA	81.79
8	WALES	81.36
9	ARGENTINA	79.91
10	FIJI	76.46
11	JAPAN	74.23
12	GEORGIA	74.14
13	TONGA	71.94
14	SAMOA	71.25
15	ITALY	71.17

So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd

I think Argentina and Japan (at home) are the ones you don't want in your group.

poissonrouge wrote:OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1	NEW ZEALAND	94.78
2	ENGLAND	89.53
3	AUSTRALIA	86.35
4	IRELAND	84.66
5	SCOTLAND	82.18
6	FRANCE	82.00
7	SOUTH AFRICA	81.79
8	WALES	81.36
9	ARGENTINA	79.91
10	FIJI	76.46
11	JAPAN	74.23
12	GEORGIA	74.14
13	TONGA	71.94
14	SAMOA	71.25
15	ITALY	71.17

So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd

Cheers Mrs P.
A nice end to the season for you!

The Canolas are grossly over-rated there in 3rd place. It's an abysmal situation here at the moment.

How are Australia still third in the world?

Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

Yeah but..., no but...., yeah but..., no but


What did they ever do to moral victory points? How come World Rugby have banned them?

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.

They must have already had a healthy lead over the chasing pack and had some handy wins in the Rugby Championship last year (finishing 2nd). At the time, SA and Argentina were higher ranked and losing to NZ won't have lost them many if any points.

That's the way it's weighted, not just on simple wins and losses.

Australia started off with 89.33 pts - they lost the guts of 5 pts by 3 defeats to England at home (losing to a team below you hurts and losing at home hurts)
They then lost to NZ (well above them - small loss of ranking points- 0.2) won one/lost one to SA (minimal change in points) and beat Arg home and away (net gain of 1.1 pts) So gained about 1 ranking point from Rugby Championship
Then they went on tour - so away from home so more profit for wins. Beat Wales, Scotland and France - and beat Wales by >15 pts when Wales were 5th in the rankings. Net gain nearly 3 pts (1.5 from Wales match, 1.3 from other 2)
Then lost to Ireland and England - lost 1.8 pts from those losses
So overall - 8 losses, 6 wins
4.9 pt loss from England tour
0.9 gain from Rugby championship
2.81 gain from their victories over Scotland, France and especially Wales
1.79 loss from England and Ireland games
Overall points change 2.98
With regard to Ireland in 6 Nations - they just about broke even on the ranking points as a result of losing to Scotland and Wales. If they had beaten Wales they would have got above Australia.

Pretty much what I said then

It still doesn't feel too good though. They deserve to be ranked about 8th or 9th.
The RWC seems like it was in a completely different era... a distant dream. It's been mostly downhill since then.

There needs to be a massive shake up in our rugby admin (who have been sitting on their hands since 2015) and some sort of new injection into the game here. They've lost their impetus and desire to compete at the higher levels - it seems. Quite sad and depressing.
To say the Wallabies now have their backs to the wall would be a gross understatement!

The wallaby forwards are quite weak and there doesn't seem to be a lot of depth. Australia seems over reliant on imports too.

Yeah, I was at a SR game a couple weeks ago. Same old indiscipline, sloppishness, sluggishness, given a schooling, useless defence, poor handling, lack of vision for most of it... then a late surge far too late when the game was long since lost. That's no way to play rugby.

They are really doing their best to make it hard for themselves! Horrible to watch.

Not sure the national side will be much better. You need at least 5-7 top notch 'stars'... minimum... to make a fist of it on the international stage. Seems like we have about half a star at the minute. I just can't see who is going to step up and lead by example so that we have a slim hope of others following suit.

The Loaded Dog wrote:Yeah, I was at a SR game a couple weeks ago. Same old indiscipline, sloppishness, sluggishness, given a schooling, useless defence, poor handling, lack of vision for most of it... then a late surge far too late when the game was long since lost. That's no way to play rugby.

They are really doing their best to make it hard for themselves! Horrible to watch.

Not sure the national side will be much better. You need at least 5-7 top notch 'stars'... minimum... to make a fist of it on the international stage. Seems like we have about half a star at the minute. I just can't see who is going to step up and lead by example so that we have a slim hope of others following suit.

Not sure you really do need stars. I dont think Ireland or England have any stars but are playing to a very high level at the moment because both have very good coaching teams, highly organised unions (particularly the IRFU) and good squad depth.

Sometimes star players can be a distraction. Guys like Giteau, O'Connor, Beale and Cooper were/are all stars but all caused a lot of issues at least partially due to their star status.

Bit of exageration on how bad aus have been ...although the current super rugby mess doesnt bode well for this season.
They did beat the sides ranked 9-5 last time they played them though, its only 1,2 and 4 who beat them. So maybe 4th right now would be a fairer reflection, with a danger of slipping further if they dont get their act together in a way the franchises havent.

Its always been tough for Union in Aus though, in many ways theyve done well to keep their side near the top for so long with such a small market and player base squeezed by NARL and Aussie Rules as well as the rise of soccer.

Yes, of course Goose. The rise of football in particular has taken a huge chunk of the market. Even in western Sydney you see hordes of kids (boys and girls) playing soccer and AFL along with RL. RU is practically non-existent - except for a few small pockets in the northern and eastern suburbs.

Maybe I'm being too harsh but it's very frustrating as you know. Yes, they probably should be around 4th or 5th given their current state of play.

GG - I should have said especially skilled players who excel at their position rather than "stars" but I take your point. We don't need any pretty boys or show pony types that's for sure. Depth is a real problem... as is coaching and the Union's organisation.

Im actually wrong ...ethey lost their last game (away) to SA. But yeah the generasl point remains...they are in amongst that group of 3-7 who can all beat each other "on their day" but a step above 8-10 group.
At the moment it loosk like they might get worse, but historicaly this is a low and as with SA you fancy them getting their act together at some point even if theres a furtehr slump this season.

Plus the strength of England's run of 18 unbeaten games relies on the idea that Australia are a really strong side.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Plus the strength of England's run of 18 unbeaten games relies on the idea that Australia are a really strong side.

Poopooing their run which was everyone except new zealand is a bit like poopooing new zelands for never having to face themselves.

regardless they still acheived something theyve never even come close to doing before in that run. And youd still struggle to suatin a paper rocks scissors argument that Ireland are more better when they lost to flipping Scotland (whos ranking in turn relies on the idea that Wales arent an embaressment ...)

And so it goes ....

Im just kidding Gooseberry, it was a great run.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Im just kidding Gooseberry, it was a great run.

Your only saying that because Irelands claim to superiority relies on having ended both runs

Haha you got me. Perfect counter.

poissonrouge wrote:Australia started off with 89.33 pts - they lost the guts of 5 pts by 3 defeats to England at home (losing to a team below you hurts and losing at home hurts)
They then lost to NZ (well above them - small loss of ranking points- 0.2) won one/lost one to SA (minimal change in points) and beat Arg home and away (net gain of 1.1 pts) So gained about 1 ranking point from Rugby Championship
Then they went on tour - so away from home so more profit for wins. Beat Wales, Scotland and France - and beat Wales by >15 pts when Wales were 5th in the rankings. Net gain nearly 3 pts (1.5 from Wales match, 1.3 from other 2)
Then lost to Ireland and England - lost 1.8 pts from those losses
So overall - 8 losses, 6 wins
4.9 pt loss from England tour
0.9 gain from Rugby championship
2.81 gain from their victories over Scotland, France and especially Wales
1.79 loss from England and Ireland games
Overall points change 2.98
With regard to Ireland in 6 Nations - they just about broke even on the ranking points as a result of losing to Scotland and Wales. If they had beaten Wales they would have got above Australia.

I wonder if poissonrouge would like to harness the shackles of this thread?

I fought hard to get it sorted as a sticky, and it's not difficult. But it's not to be passed over to any Tom, Dick or Harry.

But I'm losing interest in rugby since it became uberprofessional und fussballisch.

And say hello to MrsP.

Changes from weekends internationals - have listed top 9 teams with ranking points/changes
NEW ZEALAND - no change
ENGLAND no change in position 0.34 inc in pts
AUSTRALIA and IRELAND no change
SOUTH AFRICA pts increase of 1.08 moved up to 5th
SCOTLAND pts increase of 0.3 but pushed down to 6th
WALES moved up to 7th at expense of France
FRANCE lost 1.08 pts and dropped to 8th
ARGENTINA lost 0.34 pts but remain in 9th

England up in the 90s now

Close to NZ than their next chaser (Ireland).

You can throw a blanket over Ireland, Aus, Scotland and SA.

A few moves from the results -
No change in position for NZ or Eng - still 1st and 2nd
Aus lost a place to Ireland - thanks to Ireland win and Aus loss
Scotland pass SA into 5th ( not 4th as BBC scotland posted in this link )
In fact on looking across the web - there a a lot of pages which appear to have got the calculations wrong and have Scotland passing Australia into 4th - but they needed to win by > 15 pts to achieve that
Rest of top 10 as before

Current ranking points as below acc to my calculations

NEW ZEALAND	94.78
ENGLAND	90.14
IRELAND	85.09
AUSTRALIA	84.63
SCOTLAND	83.90
SOUTH AFRICA	83.63
WALES	81.45
FRANCE	80.16
ARGENTINA	79.31
FIJI	76.63

It seems incredible that the Beeb somehow got the placing wrong for 4th/5th. Well, perhaps not given that they get players names wrong half the time.

France and Argentina looking like excellent group mates for England. A long way to go though.

Wasn't just the Beeb - most reports posted that Scotland moved to 4th - whether that is one site piggybacking off another and repeating their news, or due to all of them not actually reading the World rugby rankings news - where it stated that Scotland could move to 4th -if they won by more than 15 pts - I bet they didn't actually read the bit in bold.
And a few websites who did get Scotlands position as 5th were lauding how they had moved to their highest position of 5th - despite the fact that they have been 5th since the end of Feb apart from last week when SA beat France.

Now if Scotland beat Fiji by more than 15pts next week they will move to 4th. And if Ireland lost to Japan they would get to 3rd. Or if Australia lose to Italy, Scotland get to 4th (and Aus go to 6th).But if Scotland lost they drop to 6th even if Aus lose.
Interesting times!!

Is that SA up to 4th with Aus and Scotland dropping a place each? SA have now smashed France 3 weeks in a row and Scotland's humbling by Fiji will have seen their ranking points taking a battering. Aus won't gain anything by beating Italy.

SA go up to 5th, swapping places with Scotland. Only other change in the top 20 is Italy edging ahead of Samoa to take 14th.


# Team Points
1 New Zealand 94.78
2 England 90.14
3 Ireland 85.39 (+0.30)
4 Australia 84.63
5 (↑6) South Africa 84.16 (+0.53)
6 (↓5) Scotland 82.47 (-1.43)
7 Wales 81.73 (+0.28)
8 France 79.63 (-0.53)
9 Argentina 79.50 (+0.20)
10 Fiji 78.06 (+1.43)
11 Japan 73.79 (-0.30)
12 Georgia 73.41 (-0.20)
13 Tonga 71.85
14 (↑15) Italy 71.00
15 (↓14) Samoa 70.97 (-0.28)
16 Romania 70.27
17 USA 65.71 (-0.39)
18 Uruguay 63.15
19 Spain 63.15
20 Russia 63.13

Whatever stops the Scots gloating for a while is okay by me.

Cheeky mikey

To Mods and Poissonrouge

I wonder if poissonrouge would like to harness the shackles of this thread?

I fought hard to get it sorted as a sticky, and it's not difficult. But it's not to be passed over to any Tom, Dick or Harry.

But I'm losing interest in rugby since it became uberprofessional und fussballisch.

Poissonrouge has PMed me to state that he is willing to take over the responsibility (and burden) of  control of this thread.

I'm sorry that I didn't notice the message before, but that's because I now only rarely log on to the board these days.

I'm sure that he'll continue to do an excellent job.

The online calculator is at http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh (as specified in the OP).

Thanks, PR, and if you need any tips, then please give me a shout.

tip: if you want to continue to use the OP container (to edit new OPs), use the <> (code) icon in the message box. It's useful for managing the apparent size of posts to prevent users having to do loads of scrolling to access the replies (particularly on busy weekends when th OP becomes yards long).

Mods, can you please do the necessary?

Good luck!  

1. New Zealand.
 2. England.
 3. Australia.

France down to 9th after drawing with Japan.

Okay.  Too few stats, numbers and figures in 606 recently.

So, to keep all you mathematicians a little busy if such be your desire, given that neither Ireland nor England will gain much from any of their opponents during the coming 6N, and given that they only let us meet on the last day, is it possible to compute whether Ireland would overtake England in the rankings if we were to win all our games before the encounter and that last 'away' game too?

SecretFly wrote:Okay.  Too few stats, numbers and figures in 606 recently.

So, to keep all you mathematicians a little busy if such be your desire, given that neither Ireland nor England will gain much from any of their opponents during the coming 6N, and given that they only let us meet on the last day, is it possible to compute whether Ireland would overtake England in the rankings if we were to win all our games before the encounter and that last 'away' game too?

England would stay above, barring losing elsewhere.

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Okay.  Too few stats, numbers and figures in 606 recently.

So, to keep all you mathematicians a little busy if such be your desire, given that neither Ireland nor England will gain much from any of their opponents during the coming 6N, and given that they only let us meet on the last day, is it possible to compute whether Ireland would overtake England in the rankings if we were to win all our games before the encounter and that last 'away' game too?

England would stay above, barring losing elsewhere.

Yeah, that's what my non mathematical brain guessed at, Scott. The world ain't fair!!!

I have analysed the figures.
If England and Ireland win all games up to last round then if Ireland beat England by more than 15pts Ireland go past England. If England lose by 15 pts or less then England stay above them.
Likely ranking point difference going into the game is around 4 pts, but England are at home so they get the extra points for that so it works out at around 7 ranking points difference. That equates to around 1.7 ranking points for an Ireland win by 15pts or less, but more than 15pts multiplies that by 1.5 so that equates to over 2.5 ranking points. As Ireland are playing England, what one gains the other loses
So plain win - 3.4 pts swing
Big win - 5 pts swing
And 4 pts difference - Ireland go above England by 1 ranking point.
If anyone wants I have detailed figures - doesn't matter too much if wins up to that point are by more or less than 15.