World Rugby Rankings

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:



Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)



Original thread:
https://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

Current ranking

1 New Zealand 96.57
2 England 89.49
3 Australia 85.33
4 South Africa 84.85
5 Wales 82.49
6 Ireland 81.67
7 France 80.75
8 Scotland 80.44
9 Argentina 80.31
10 Fiji 75.49

6 November Internationals

If NZ win by 1-15 points 0.000 96.57 81.67 No
If NZ win by more than 15 0.000 96.57 81.67 No
If result is a draw 1.000 95.57 82.67 No
If Ire win by 1-15 points 2.000 94.57 83.67 No
If Ire win by more than 15 3.000 93.57 84.67 No

f Wal win by 1-15 points 0.984 83.47 84.35 No
If Wal win by more than 15 1.476 83.97 83.85 Yes
If result is a draw 0.016 82.47 85.35 No
If Aus win by 1-15 points 1.016 81.47 86.35 No
If Aus win by more than 15 1.524 80.97 86.85 No

Essentially Wales and Ireland could trade places and it is possible for Australia to fall below SA.

Gooseberry wrote:What these rankings do suggest though is that England maybe arent as good as we think from them winning their last 7 games. The Northern Hemisphere sides  is weak the board at the minute. Even an overweighted flump at the world cup has England comfortably above the dross, without having to beat any quality sides recently.  
Australia is the real test of where they are at compared to 2014 and 2010, the sides that went on to grow from promising performances againt SH opposition into abject failures.

"The Northern hemisphere" sides are only weak when you compare them to New Zealand. All teams from 2 to 7 are fairly evenly matched at the moment. Maybe even 2-9.

This whole run of AIs for all the Northern hem sides will be the best yard stick to measure current standings by.
All Home nations are playing at least 2 of the Southern Hem big boys (I include Argentina in that group too). They are also playing tier 2 and tier 3 nations - so there are plenty of IRB ranking points up for grabs and the potential to loose a few too.

You know what they say Gooseberry - your only as good as your last game.

propdavid_london wrote:This whole run of AIs for all the Northern hem sides will be the best yard stick to measure current standings by.  
All Home nations are playing at least 2 of the Southern Hem big boys (I include Argentina in that group too).  They are also playing tier 2 and tier 3 nations - so there are plenty of IRB ranking points up for grabs and the potential to loose a few too.

You know what they say Gooseberry - your only as good as your last game.

I'd say going on present seeming invincible form of the ABs, our 'run' is a damn sight more difficult than anybody else's to get anything positive from on points. Some might say it's the most pointless AI grouping (twice) of the season.
But, if we were to make them work harder for their win than most of their recent opponents to date, then I suppose that would still be a pretty good yard stick for us to measure where Ireland is in relation to the other NH sides. That's pretty much all we can hope for, making them sweat for their wins.

So, that's a 2-point swing either way for both NZ and Ireland.

Ireland up to 5th (would have been anyway, due to Wales' defeat to Aus).

Aus make a bit of ground on England.

Ireland now morally 1st. ... for a few weeks....

SecretFly wrote:Ireland now morally 1st. ... for a few weeks....

Aye. Canada might have it next week

Congrats by the way

Ireland win back the Raeburn shield.

Cyril wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Ireland now morally 1st. ... for a few weeks....

Aye. Canada might have it next week

Congrats by the way

Thanks Cyril A weight off a Nation's shoulders at last. They're still going to be tough to beat each and every time we meet them (they are like the Borg - they adapt and conquer). But at least that aura about them v Us is now gone. Mentally, that's a big hurdle crossed for Irish rugby.

Cyril you little troll YES I WILL

Current rankings
1 New Zealand 94.57
2 England 89.49
3 Australia 86.86
4 South Africa 84.85
5 Ireland 83.67
6 Argentina 81.46
7 Wales 80.97
8 France 80.75
9 Scotland 80.44
10 Fiji 75.49

England v South Africa
If Eng win by 1-15 points 0.236 89.73 84.61 No
If Eng win by more than 15 0.354 89.84 84.50 No
If result is a draw 0.764 88.73 85.61 No
If SA win by 1-15 points 1.764 87.73 86.61 No
If SA win by more than 15 2.646 86.84 87.50 Yes

Scotland v Australia
If Sco win by 1-15 points 1.342 81.78 85.52 No
If Sco win by more than 15 2.013 82.45 84.85 No
If result is a draw 0.342 80.78 86.52 No
If Aus win by 1-15 points 0.658 79.78 87.52 No
If Aus win by more than 15 0.987 79.45 87.85 No

Wale v Argentina
If Wal win by 1-15 points 0.749 81.72 80.71 Yes
If Wal win by more than 15 1.123 82.09 80.34 Yes
If result is a draw 0.251 80.72 81.71 No
If Arg win by 1-15 points 1.251 79.72 82.71 No
If Arg win by more than 15 1.877 79.09 83.34 No

Ireland v Canada
If Ire win by 1-15 points 0.000 83.67 64.53 No
If Ire win by more than 15 0.000 83.67 64.53 No
If result is a draw 1.000 82.67 65.53 No
If Can win by 1-15 points 2.000 81.67 66.53 No
If Can win by more than 15 3.000 80.67 67.53 No

France v Samoa
If Fra win by 1-15 points 0.000 80.75 71.37 No
If Fra win by more than 15 0.000 80.75 71.37 No
If result is a draw 1.000 79.75 72.37 No
If Sam win by 1-15 points 2.000 78.75 73.37 No
If Sam win by more than 15 3.000 77.75 74.37 No

Italy v New Zealand
If Ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 74.23 92.57 No
If Ita win by more than 15 3.000 75.23 91.57 No
If result is a draw 1.000 73.23 93.57 No
If NZ win by 1-15 points 0.000 72.23 94.57 No
If NZ win by more than 15 0.000 72.23 94.57 No

Have calculated rankings after weekend - as below
1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND        89.84
3 AUSTRALIA 88.13
4 IRELAND        83.46
5 SOUTH AFRICA 82.56
6 WALES        81.77
7 SCOTLAND 80.57
8 FRANCE        80.13
9 ARGENTINA 79.92
10 FIJI        75.49
11 JAPAN        75.20
12 GEORGIA 74.24
13 ITALY        74.16
14 SAMOA        70.91
15 TONGA        69.95

So not looking good for SA - crunch match against Wales - lose that and they will prob end up in second group for seeding for next world cup (no way to claw points back before next May).
And looking good for Ireland - beat Australia next week and do well in 6N and they are in top seeding group

Out of curiosity - ran through what happens after next weekend (purely hypothetical results mark you)
If Ireland win (possible)
and France win (Ok bit of a stretch but...)
and Wales win
and the rest go according to form with higher team winning and no more than 15 ptrs

top 10 are as follows
1 NEW ZEALAND 92.78
2 ENGLAND 89.84
3 AUSTRALIA 86.97
4 IRELAND 84.63
5 WALES 82.55
6 FRANCE 82.13
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.78
8 SCOTLAND 80.64
9 ARGENTINA 79.92
10 FIJI 75.49

thanks Mrs P.

That means that South Africa and Argentina are poised to be positioned in the same way that England and Wales were before the 2015 draw - a tier below their historical average position. Someone is going to have a very tough group.

Was hoping we'd pop over Australia by the end of this AI season. Mildly disappointed actually if that's our end result (hoping now that of course it is, and that we do beat Australia - another tough encounter if we have central player injuries) Two places is a good jump of course, but after Ireland's performance levels to date, it would be a little disappointing. The 'What might have beens' had we managed to hold onto Sexton, Stander and Henshaw.

I have seen the rankings released by World Rugby today - they seem to be rather unfair to RSA - they have given Italy 2 pts increase and RSA 2 pts off, despite the fact that the rating difference once home advantage is taken into consideration is less than 10 pts. Does this mean that playing in Florence (which I think is in Italy) does not count as a home fixture? Have emailed World Rugby to point out their possible error!

MrsP wrote:Out of curiosity - ran through what happens after next weekend (purely hypothetical results mark you)
If Ireland win (possible)
and France win (Ok bit of a stretch but...)
and Wales win
and the rest go according to form with higher team winning and no more than 15 ptrs

top 10 are as follows
1 NEW ZEALAND 92.78
2 ENGLAND 89.84
3 AUSTRALIA 86.97
4 IRELAND 84.63
5 WALES 82.55
6 FRANCE 82.13
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.78
8 SCOTLAND 80.64
9 ARGENTINA 79.92
10 FIJI 75.49

Quite a drop for SA. They really need to deal with the political side of things. Do that and I can see them rise to top 3 again.

Ireland still has work to do to get into the top 3. That will be sorted once we get the Slam though

Analysis of upcoming weekend based on current rankings pos'n. Sadly gets more complicated as it goes down table.
There are a lot of figures - if anyone wants them click below

click for table:

1 NZ top no matter how they do
2 England - if they lose to Argentina and Australia win - swap with Australia. If they lose to Argentina by more than 15 they swap with Australia  even if Australia lose. (edited - unless Australie lose by more than 15)
3 Australia - as above - cannot drop below 3rd regardless of results
4. Ireland - Cannot climb a place - if lose and SA win drop to 5th. If lose by more than 15 and Wales win drop to 5th
5. South Africa - If win climb to 4th if Ireland lose. If lose are overtaken by Wales, and overtaken by France and Argentine if they win
6 Wales - If win overtake SA - can only overtake Ireland if Ireland lose by more than 15 or Ireland lose and Wales win by more than 15. If lose they drop below Scotland, France and Argentina if each of them win.
7 Scotland - if win will hold place unless Wales loses when they will overtake Wales. If lose - drop below France and Argentina regardless of their results. If France or Argentina win scotland lose a place to them regardless of their own result.
8 France - if win overtake Scotland regardless of their result. Win will overtake Wales and South Africa if they lose. A win by more than 15 will overtake Ireland if they lose.
9 Argentina - If win move ahead of Scotland regardless and will move ahead of France, Wales and S Africa if any of them lose
10. Fiji - If win - no movement. If lose drop below Japan. Drop below Georgia and Italy if they win
11 Japan - if win swop places with Fiji. If lose drop below Georgia and Italy if they win
12 Georgia - If win move above Fiji and Japan if they lose. A win by more than 15 moves them above Fiji and  Japan regardless of their results.
13 Italy - Win puts them above Fiji, Japan and Georgia if they lose. Otherwise no change.
14 Samoa - no game
15 Tonga - win puts them above Samoa and above Italy if they beat them by more than 15.

So important matches all round - especially for South Africa and Argentina as it is their last chance to get points before World Cup seeding next May.Losses for either mean they are dependent on other results to get back into top 4 (RSA) or top 8 (Argentina)

Eh? So much of the above is wrong. What calculation method are you using?

The calculations are accurate. Where is any of it wrong

I think you must be using the the wrong calculation method or perhaps an old set of rankings.

Have a look on the World Rugby site

Calculation as from World Rugby
Step One: Check pre match ratings
Step Two: Allow for home advantage
To 'handicap' the home side, we treat them as though they are three points stronger than their current rating,
Step Three: Calculate the Rating Gap
The Rating Gap is the difference between the ratings of the two sides
Step Four: Check the possible Core Rating Changes
Core Rating Changes are based on the match result and the Rating Gap
On The World Rugby site they show this by graphical means but the formula is easily worked out - this applies between -10 and +10 rating gap - outside those limits the rating change is fixed at -10 or +10 result
The formula is Rating Change = Score for match result- (1 + Rating Gap * 0.1) where score is 2 for win,  1 for draw and 0 for loss
Step Five: Apply weighting factors
If one side has won by more than 15 points, we multiply the Core Rating Change by 1.5.
If the match was part of the World Cup Finals, we would then double the Rating Change.

So as an example - take France V Australia game played last weekend.
Calculating rating change for France
Step 1 France rating (as of 14th Nov) 80.75 Australia rating 87.51
Step 2 France rating increases to 83.75
Step 3 Rating Gap = 83.75 - 87.51 = -3.76
Step 4 Australia win so score is 0 (loss for France)
      Rating Change (for France) = 0-(1-(3.76*0.1)) = 0-(1-0.376)=0-0.624 =-0.624
Step 5 Loss by less than 15 pts so no weighting factor

So France new rating = 80.75-0.624=80.126 =rounded up to 80.13

That is the method I used - and it correlates with the change in rating given on World Rugby.
Same method used for all the results given in the table - and I have cross checked my figures with the online calculator given at the top of this topic (http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh (Courtesy of Robbo277)) The rankings used for the calculation were those posted on the World Rugby site for 21st November. The figures may be 0.01 out depending on what method World Rugby uses to round the figures. The Fiji/Japan match has been calculated with no change in rating for home advantage as it is a neutral venue I think.
If there are any specific figures you have issue with please indicate them - I accept the possibility of an error in transcription although on rechecking the figures I can find none.

Further reassurance is from the calculation I did (but accidentally posted under the wifes tag) last week on the rating changes for this week shown below. The figures I got are the same as World Rugby  got (bar the odd hundredth) apart from South Africa/Italy where from some strange reason World Rugby have treated it as a neutral ground rather than home advantage for Italy
 

Previous post:

Yep, you're right. I was looking at an old list myself

OK France NZ match still to be finished but current ranking points are as follows presuming All Blacks win

1	NEW ZEALAND	94.78
2	ENGLAND	89.84
3	AUSTRALIA	86.97
4	IRELAND	84.63
5	WALES	82.54
6	SOUTH AFRICA	81.72
7	SCOTLAND	80.67
8	FRANCE	80.13
9	ARGENTINA	79.91
10	FIJI	76.46
11	JAPAN	74.23
12	GEORGIA	74.14
13	ITALY	72.47
14	TONGA	71.95
15	SAMOA	70.91

If France beat NZ then they move to 6th with  a ranking score of 82.13. If they beat the All Blacks by more than 15 they move to 5th with points of 83.13

It will take time for the rankings to catch up with reality

Ireland are a better side than Australia
South Africa should be 3 places lower than the table shows them - a totally shambolic outfit

Fortunately for South Africa - they have no more games to lose before the RWC seeding. Otherwise on current form they could be down into the third tier. Wouldn't be surprised if they drop to 8th as I think France and Scotland have a lower ranking than they deserve. However none of the teams below 8th pos can get enough points to climb above SA by next May. Italy are the only ones with games in hand and they are over 9 points short, so they would need to beat all the other 6N teams (and some by more than 15 pts) to claw that back.

Of course - South Africa being a team nobody is afraid of now doesn't necessarily mean they'll be a side the 'top seeds' will love getting in 2019.  These seedings are meaningless.  You worry about who is in your group in the weeks leading into the start of the actual WC.  3rd seeds might by then be world number 1.

geoff999rugby wrote:It will take time for the rankings to catch up with reality

Ireland are a better side than Australia
South Africa should be 3 places lower than the table shows them - a totally shambolic outfit

I'm not sure about this. Ireland beat Aus by 3 points at home and could easily have lost. I would think the Aussies would expect to overcome that difference on a neutral ground or at home.

I expect France to improve their ranking during the 6 Nations. Scotland, I think, will fall back to 9th after the tournament.

Ireland have a lot to work on - a lot.  But there is the rub.  They are getting these results as they continue to try and work on their 'lots to still do'.  So had Sexton and Henshaw and O'Brien been playing?  What would the Aussie's have expected then?  Had we kept a seasoned 15 instead of a rookie 10 at the back, what would the Aussie's have expected? Had we kept a seasoned wing instead of a scrumhalf out on the wing in the second half, what would the Aussie's have expected?

The promising bit is that Ireland probably have the least 'sexy' backline in the NH (even when all seasoned players are playing)....and still the side are pulling off these results and still scoring tries.  If we get a little sexier in the backline - and we've seen some promise there with the younglings....  well, we'd certainly look even better. But we're doing fine for now.

I think that shows you need better depth to get above 4th in the world, Fly I'd say the Aussies or a little better than Ireland at the moment, but not by much.

It's funny with Ireland, it was 'Schmidt out' for many a few months ago. It'll be interesting if they can maintain progress or fall back again.

In case no one's run across it yet, this site is pretty useful for working out permutations on the rankings:
https://rawling.github.io/wr-calc/

Cyril wrote:I think that shows you need better depth to get above 4th in the world, Fly I'd say the Aussies or a little better than Ireland at the moment, but not by much.

It's funny with Ireland, it was 'Schmidt out' for many a few months ago. It'll be interesting if they can maintain progress or fall back again.

I've said this before.  Not from me...and not from most of the Irish boys on this site

We're checking out the depth Cyril - we're testing it out.  That was my point...and still beating sides above us on the ranking whilst doing so.  England have been ready to be world beaters for a few years now.  They're as slick as they need to be in most departments.  But Ireland haven't the sexy boys in the back yet and still get the results.

Australia.  Had they met Ireland's more ideal side, with the subs we could then put on instead of using from the off?  They'd have been beaten with more space in that scoreline.  We're doing fine for a side still trying to find a settled backline that has more razor edge.

There's a heck of a lot more to come from England too. We're scoring plenty of tries and Jones hasn't really started on the backs yet

Both England and Ireland should have plenty to look forward to

In case no one's run across it yet, this site is pretty useful for working out permutations on the rankings:
https://rawling.github.io/wr-calc/

Wish I had known about that - just spent a few hrs creating the same thing in Excel - not quite as sophisticated yet but still a work in progress.

Cyril wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:It will take time for the rankings to catch up with reality

Ireland are a better side than Australia
South Africa should be 3 places lower than the table shows them - a totally shambolic outfit

I'm not sure about this. Ireland beat Aus by 3 points at home and could easily have lost. I would think the Aussies would expect to overcome that difference on a neutral ground or at home.

I expect France to improve their ranking during the 6 Nations. Scotland, I think, will fall back to 9th after the tournament.

Look at the 2nd half back line up for Ireland.

Inexperienced 10, at Provincial level, playing 15.
SH playing on wing
Not fully fit winger playing
Inexperienced 13 playing at 12
Winger playing 13
Second string 10

In truth we were a shambles but still held on

Kearney, Trimble, Henshaw, Payne, Gilroy
Olding, Kelleher, Marshall, McCloskey, Adeolokun

That is two sets of players 11 to 15 better than the ones on the pitch (as units) missing

In the first half Australia were struggling to live with Ireland.
Not just basing it on that game though - Ireland went tow to tow with New Zealand in 2 games and gave as good as they got.
Australia scraped past Scotland and France by comparison.

If you play with both precision and intensity Australia struggle - give them space they destroy you.
NZ, England and Ireland, at the , moment are the only ones who can play the game required to best them

As I have said Ireland have raised there level of performance this autumn - leaving the pack of Aus, Wales, France, Argentina behind and
now playing at a level to contest with the big boys.

England and Ireland will be very interesting in the 6N if Ireland maintain the improvement

Pretty interesting match next w/end - the consequences of Australia losing this week and England being at home means that the result of the match will decide who is 2nd in rankings. England lose and there is 1.59 ranking points change hands so England drop to 88.25 and Aus climb to 88.56.
Whereas an England win only results in 0.41 ranking points change. Being higher in the rankings makes it a hell of a lot more painful to lose!

Could have added Scannell and O'Halloran to that list and next year Ludik and Aki

Strength in depth in the centre and not as bad as I thought at 15

Well , the bestie tournament is nearly on us.

Shame about them not making it a European Four Nations (yet).

New OP.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Well , the bestie tournament is nearly on us.

Shame about them not making it a European Four Nations (yet).

New OP.

Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales?

Well for me, it'd be just on the European rankings. So taking from the current world ranking positions (of course, in reality they'd have to strip out any games involving non European sides) there would be Div 1 Eng Ire Wal Sco, Div 2 Fra, Geo Ita Rom.

6 games per team - home and away.

Promotion/relegation based entirely on rankings - not position in previous 4Ns.

Nah, potentially too many UK sides with an unfair number of participants.

Let's just keep it like a club.  An old boys exclusive club.  The other old boys can have their very own golf club in the next town.  Everyone is happy.  Relegation for Six Nation sides is much too much like 'Club'/League habits trying to gain entry.

There's nowt as fair and rewarding as a good old-fashioned oligarchachal cartel.

Poor sweet Georgia.

But I'm always bemused by that argument, Port.

You might as well argue that the 6N sides should be allowed compete in the SH Championship.  After all, it's a slur on the ability of number 2 ranked side in the world that it should be forced to play in a competition that doesn't include the number 1 ranked side?

Why can't Georgia, a Nation not so small and I'm sure with a robust enough economy, get together with Romania, Russia and one or two more Nations in central or eastern Europe and go for it - create their own highly funded Nations Cup between them.  As I always say, the population density is there to have more than one Group of Six in a highly publicised, highly marketed European based Rugby Union competition - and money wouldn't exactly be short in Russia and other places in the east that would allow for such a Rival Competition to succeed if backed and marketed well enough.

I don't get this constant drive for 'Expansion' of everything.  Why not just say we're happy with our 6N gig, the SH Championship are getting by on theirs, and there is more than enough of a population and money to get another 6N kind of event going for teams like Georgia in Europe.

And then we all meet up for a big party during the World Cup.  I don't get this Expand, Expand, Expand/League-ise, League-ise, League-ise obsession.  I think it's seriously an obsession amongst rugby followers right now.  

Another Rival Competition (a well marketed one) to the 6N would suffice.

Let the children play, but don't let them grow up.

Is that what you mean?

Twenty bloody years we've been waiting for Italy to grow up. And they won't whilst they continue to be cosseted and patronised.

No I mean what I say.  This obsession with 'expansion' of everything rugby related is a plague.  It's a plague.

There is NO reason.... NONE ....why five or six other Unions in Europe can't form a strong Nations Cup event with eventually as much sparkle as the 6N.  There is then NO reason why the sides that would be part of that well crafted, well marketed event couldn't bring the standard of their rugby up and up to be largely on a level playing field with the 6N sides in time.  
You already admit that being in the 6N didn't exactly improve Italy - so instead you play the elitist card (not the expansionist one) when saying Italy should be dropped and let wallow in its mediocrity and perhaps just die offcompletely ...but Georgia!  Let them in because you simply seem to have a personal love for them.

If Georgia are already a more worthy side than Italy whilst being outside the 6N, then the necessity for them to join the 6N is less obvious if your argument is to give them the means to improve still more.  Georgia, in a well organised group of other Nations, wouldn't need 6N exposure to improve still further.

Are the 6N afraid of true competition? - i.e. a completely different Rival competition that would seek the hearts and minds of the continental casual rugby watchers?

Do the 6N boys (and we know the two powerful Unions/Nations involved) want to control every blasted angle of rugby on this continent - so that all the loose change in Europe ends up in their pockets?

Better late than never.
New OP.

Inside the gated community, that is.

England pick up half a point from Wales to move within 4 points of NZ, and France take nearly a point off Scotland to swap places.

In the next couple of rounds:
England can only lose points against Italy and Scotland.
Ireland can pick up about half a point from each of France and Wales (who could therefore pick up something like 1.5 points for a win away from home)
Scotland can pick up a fraction from Italy and there's nearly a whole point at stake against Wales

Assuming England and Ireland both win both their matches, as seems fairly likely, there'll be about two thirds of a point available to England and one and a third available to Ireland in the big finale. Quite high stakes.

New OP with new feature : best betting odds from oddschecker

After week 3 of 6N
England and Italy - no change in ranking points
Ireland - up 0.42 pts - no change in position (4)
Scotland move up to 5th in rankings with 1.28 more ranking points
Wales drop below SA to 7th (they lose 1.28 pts)
France drop to 8th (losing 0.42 pts)

If Ireland beat Wales next round -
a) either Wales or France will drop below Argentina by end of 6N (whoever loses between them last round)
b) Ireland are guaranteed 4th place regardless of result of their match against England unless Scotland can beat England by > 15 pts

If Ireland lose to Wales they can drop below 4th if either
a) Wales also beat France
b) Scotland beat England (and Italy)
if (b) occurs Scotland go to 4th regardless of (a) occurring - if (a) occurs but not (b) then Wales go to 4th

Scotland having nosebleeds in the rarified air.
Italy's funeral plans being made.

New OP.