Final Showdown Murray vs Djokovoic

First topic message reminder :

Everything is going by the plan, it was very much anticipated Murray - Djoko finals, however some might disagree majority including bookies expected it. In my view Murray is the form horse of the tournament even ahead of Djoko right now. Lets do Swot analysis

Murray perspective -

Strengths -
New Aggressive play [was able to stand with Fed]
Backhand at its full flow
Faced a Sterner opponent in semi's
Best Wheels
New found belief to beat top dogs.
Learning to be calm under pressure

Weakness
Mid Match focus lapse

Opportunities
To become No.1 later this year
Multiple GS Achivement

Threats
Djoko's form and favorite turf

Djokovic's perspective -

Strength
Complete game
Favorite turf
Knows opponents game better than his opponent knows of his game.
Better player under pressure

Weakness -
Haven't had a tougher test outside Stan [will be tested for sure by Murray]

Opportunities -
First player in open era to win AO 3 times in a row
Cling on to No.1 with Iron fist.

Threats -
Opponent's belief
Pressure to win as he starts heavy favorite

I predicted Murray to win USO even before the start of USO [ not bragging , but just wanna say I stick to my analysis and portray what my head says more than my heart], I cast Murray as the favourite to win the title at 65-35 % , I always love to give high percentage rather than sticking my neck and say its too close to predict.

Djoko's form is very scary but the pressure is on him to win and that will favour Murray this time around, I would be pleasently surprised if Murray doesn't win come Sunday. Whats your view guys?

I think novak would have won that match in 3/4.
He still isn't as strong as novak mentally imo

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm amazed that twice as many people have gone for Murray so far!

World number 1, two time defending champion, in form, rested, won both their encounters since USO... what does Novak have to do to be the favourite?!

Novak is the bookies favourite HM. But there's way more Murray fans on here than Novak.

For what it's worth I think Novak should be, and deserves to be, favourite for the title.

Outside Socal and Murdoch I don't remember an outright Djoko fan here, surprisingly Socal as remained calm, may be pre-match tensions, Socal bro take it easy, your man still on scary form.

I am slammed with work IC, but I always do get big match jitters, silly really it isn't like Novak sends me a percentage or anything. I think NOvak is the slimmest of favorites. 52-48, something like that. It is going to come down to who serves better on the day and feels the ball from the baseline better. I don't think murray will be tired, it is just a matter of execution. Talent and ability is very close, it is the guy who feels it that day that will win. Based on past track record probably Novak, but it is the slimmest of advantages.

I disagree with luciusman, form is a fleeting thing but talent is there. What made Murray think he could beat Djokovic after getting worked in 2011 like the rest of the tour. I don't think athletically or talent wise either guy has clear edge. But the idea that Djokovic loses australia and goes in the crapper is a bit much for me. A tennis career is a marathon, at one point Agassi was playing challengers then he became the world #1 again at 33 years old. Players don't always have the same physical health or mental focus. But NOvak has shown that he is consistently a great player.

socal1976 wrote:I disagree with luciusman, form is a fleeting thing but talent is there. What made Murray think he could beat Djokovic after getting worked in 2011 like the rest of the tour. I don't think athletically or talent wise either guy has clear edge. But the idea that Djokovic loses australia and goes in the crapper is a bit much for me. A tennis career is a marathon, at one point Agassi was playing challengers then he became the world #1 again at 33 years old. Players don't always have the same physical health or mental focus. But NOvak has shown that he is consistently a great player.

What do you disagree on? I have no doubt Djokovic is talented but his claim to greatness is bound to be diminished if he cannot hold on to a single slam and also the one where he's had the most success and while he's in his peak years too. Of course all good things must come to an end and while a year ago it was Djokovic riding high and holding on 3/4 of the slams, now we come full circle to where it all began in 2011 and literally (where Djokovic won his first) and is now under threat. I've not said Djokovic is in the crapper, I just think it would be a bad thing for Djokovic to be No.1 and with no slams. How ironic would that be? Federer, Nadal and Murray would hold all the slams yet Djokovic would be No.1, weren't you or others saying it would be unjust for Fed to be No.1 with no slams and yet no one's considered the potential that Djokovic will be No.1 with zero slams.

I don't think many people think Djokovic will be performing heroics in his 30s like Agassi socal, Djokovic is a very good player, but Agassi? I don't think so.

See Lucius I didn't say any of the things you think I said. About Fed's number 1 I said that it was aided by Novak's injury at the end of 2011. I also stated he was the only one who capitalized on the opportunity and won the requisite points to overhaul Novak. So I think my analysis was pretty balanced.

I mean didn't Novak beat Andy the last two times they played? I remember the same thing happened in 09 when Murray was playing great and Novak lost to him 3 times in a row. I posted on old 606 that I felt Novak was a better player than Andy. Everybody howled in outrage and talked about the 3 losses in row and Andy moving up to #2. Well my controversial position then certainly didn't turn out to be so controversial.

I actually think Novak will go down as a better player than Andre, you still can't even call a player with 5 slams, who has played in the last 6 straight hardcourt slams a great player, and won two master's cup a "great" player. It is almost laughable that you call djokovic a very good player. That is like saying John Holmes had an above-average endowment.

Socal's arrival is heating up the thread, we certainly need some Djoko fans in this thread to keep it alive. Fed-Murray thread was a cracker but somehow Djoko- Murray thread is not exploding yet, may be people are still tired after the marathon exhaustion match.

I do have that effect on people IC, I am actually a harmless Cat cat really. I think it will be a great match, I like the gladitorial matches, some don't I like the battle of wills and test of nerves. I like to see the warriors suffer and preserve but at the end come out victorious or go out in a blaze of glory. Much ado about how this matchup is bad aesthetically, it isn't for me, and I think most tennis fans do enjoy the rivalry. I think these two over the next couple years will fight it out for dominance at the top. If Nadal comes back healthy he will be in the mix as well.

For f's sake we can't use pusssy in conjunction with cat?

I agree socal. Whoever loses here it is no massive big deal. If it is Noval he can shrug his shoulders in the knowledge that there will surely be many more chances in the months and years to vome. Similar for Andy as well as he has now progressed into a consistent slam finalist (this being his third in succession). Like all of these big matches it will come down to who plays the big points best and whose serve percentage holds up. May the best man win.

Exactly, craig these two have rivalry dating back to juniors and have both gotten their licks in. When they play it isn't a matter of one being vastly superior to one or the other, it is a matter of small margins and who feels it that day, whose timing and body is better on that particular day. Andy can beat Novak even if Novak plays well, and vice versa. I already view it as a pretty even rivalry despite the fact that Novak has won more slams. Today and right now not much separates the two and it comes down to who is feeling it that day.

Good comments Craig and socal.

I read an interview with Novak today which kinda backs up what you're both saying. Novak said it took him only a day or two to get over the US open final. He said its the easiest he's ever got over such a loss, because: "I didn't do anything wrong. I played very well. He just played a little bit better on that particular day, so I had no regrets."

Impressive from Novak, and I agree with him.

Murray will win easily if he keeps a first serve percentage of 72% up for the entire match just as he did for the first set and a bit V Federer in the semi-final.

I think if djokovic serves 72 percent for he whole match he will win also gboycottnut, that is probably not something he will do for a whole 5 set match. But I agree if he does, he most likely wins, but then again you can say the same thing about Djokovic. Whenever these two play the player who gets a higher percentage of first serves in is going to be at an advantage because of how well they both return.

It took Murray 5 sets to beat Federer who at 31 is not the force he was in Tennis anymore. How he can be made favourite I cannot understand. Those lapses he had vs Federer allowed Federer back into the match.

I think after Djoko's scare vs Stan he has got it together. Be assured, Djokovic does not have a dodgy back and a poor serve so I expect things to be much tougher tomorrow when Murray faces him. Unless Djokovic plays a shocker tomorrow, I think he has the edge. Mentally he is strong and I think maybe playing 3 days in a row at the USO did eventually have an effect on him.

If Djokovic starts slow as he did in NY or Shanghai he risks blowing this. If he starts out sharp and with intent, it should be a good match.

I'll be very surprised if Murray wins tomorrow. I still think the dodgy conditions played a big part at the USO, Murray is a much better hacker than Djokovic, who isn't really so flexible in that way.

I think 3 sets, maybe 4. I'd like Murray to win though.

If the match turns into a war like it usually does, and goes to a fifth set... Then you have to favour Novak slightly after his quick semi and extra day rest.

For me Murray needs to win this in 4 sets as I think Novak would outlast him in a fifth. In terms of serves, returns, defence... They both have the ability to outdo each other, so it's simply about who does it a little better on the day.

Last year they were neck and neck in virtually every match. If that's the same tomorrow, and it goes the distance, that's why I'd just edge Novak. Just. Hope I'm wrong obviously.

Just wanted to point out as well, Novak could move into tied 6th on the match win list for the AO if he emerges victorious today - very impressive considering his age. He'd break his current tie with Roddick, and move into 6th with Ferreira on 39 wins. Sampras would be on the hit list next year, with 45 wins.

bogbrush wrote:I'll be very surprised if Murray wins tomorrow. I still think the dodgy conditions played a big part at the USO, Murray is a much better hacker than Djokovic, who isn't really so flexible in that way.

I think 3 sets, maybe 4. I'd like Murray to win though.

I would be really surprised if Djoko wins, I don't more than 4 sets , CC and Murray fans/lovers gonna have a great night, as long as the forum doesn't explodes everything is fine

Murray haters get ready with your threads for reasoning this as asterix.

In my opinion it is all on a knife edge and could go either way. Key will be first serve percentages and who plays the bigger points better. May the best man win and whoever it is they will be smashing records. Enjoy.

Good luck Craig, it is really late here so I may go to bed and miss the last part of the match till tomorrow morning. If by chance you guys don't hear from me and Novak wins, I will be in later for the celebration and if he loses congrats to andy and his fans. Agree with the points you indicate I hope it is a great match.

Not a great tennis fan but am watching the final. Come on Murray

Important hold from Andy there. Didn't look likely at 1 point.

When will the commentators wise up and stop making a fuss when Andy or Novak hold their thighs or look pinged?

What an awful non-put away!

Come on Andy, smash him to bits.

are people watching on the bbc? eurosport? espn?

Murrays running far too much, he'll be toast unless he wins quickly.

Without the wind Djokovic is playing closer to the lines than in the USO final.

Murray not with a lot of pop in his legs. Novak the better player so far. Serving better.

Murray not getting a look in on Djokovic's serve. Tie-break, if it gets that far, only likely to go 1 way you'd think.

Where is the Andy from Friday? He's too soft on his friend, blla blla, come onnn Andyyyy

Jahu wrote:Where is the Andy from Friday? He's too soft on his friend, blla blla, come onnn Andyyyy

Conditions totally different.

Djoko better player till 6-6. Murray better when it mattered.

didn't expect that 2bh 1-0 murray

Murray wins the first set on the tie-break, why is it so quiet on here?

TopoftheChops wrote:Murray wins the first set on the tie-break, why is it so quiet on here?

We're protesting against the tournament favouring boring pushers thus electing not to watch any of it.

I always feel to make a great spectacle you need an attacker involved, Murray, Djokovic and Nadal can hit incredible passing shots but if no one comes to net there is no wow factor to their games, what made the Djokovic vs Nadal great towards the end was Rafas comeback, it was pretty routine until late in the fourth set

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

TopoftheChops wrote:Murray wins the first set on the tie-break, why is it so quiet on here?

We're protesting against the tournament favouring boring pushers thus electing not to watch any of it.

+1, thought I'll watch and cheer any one that beats the cr@p out of Joker.

TopoftheChops wrote:Murray wins the first set on the tie-break, why is it so quiet on here?

If I wrote that it would be called a leading question.

I'm watching and I'm quite enjoying it. Pleased that it's going well for Murray - but I hope he won't rue missing that opportunity at 0-40.

the reaction tends to support the theory offered by someone yesterday that it's contrasting styles and not contrasting personalities or back-stories which is at the root of strong rivalry between tennis fans.

I'm pleased to see Murray leading and if he takes the second set, even better but just like at the USO, Murray needs to be weary, Djokovic can come roaring back even when he's two sets down. There's no doubt Murray could finish this in str8 sets but that would requite maximum concentration for him and hoping Djokovic doesn't hit that special gear he often has in the past. As I said before, it could be over in 4 sets but at the moment you might think in 3....

Murray's serve is so much more potent these days.

That's what I like about Djoko - Murray won the point with a fantastic backhand down the line, and there's Djoko tapping his racqet to say "good shot".

Just tuned in, has it been a good match so far?

I will put my head on the block - whoever wins this second set wins the match.

Well I'll say it BB. I stayed tuned in for a set and a bit but have to admit I'm zoning out abit now...there is something about this match up that doesn't get me revved up, and I live and breathe tennis currently. Their games are just too similar for me...and try as much as I like over the years I just can't warm to Murray as a sporting personality on court, and I find Novak's play robotic/drill-like at times. Thankfully I've got a tennis tournament to take my son to so won't have to sit through another hour or so of this low-contrast baseline attrition.

emancipator wrote:Just tuned in, has it been a good match so far?

It is what it is. I'm dipping in & out and not losing the thread.

Murray looks the better player, for variety but Djokovic is well in it obviously.

It looks to me like it's on Murray's racquet unless Djoko steps up a gear - Murray has missed 4 bp's this set which he'll feel very uncomfortable about if he doesn't get this breaker, especially since he's fallen behind with a double.

If Novak wins this set then there's at least another 2 hours of this, possibly more. Murray may have had some upper hand but he's also ran more miles in my opinion and that may start to count in the 4th...if Novak wins this 2nd.

not really eman, not my cuppa tea and i don't even like tea

lydian wrote:If Novak wins this set then there's at least another 2 hours of this, possibly more. Murray may have had some upper hand but he's also ran more miles in my opinion and that may start to count in the 4th...if Novak wins this 2nd.

Yep.

Just as the first set was a bad one for Djoko to lose, that was a very bad one for Murray to lose, now he's having treatment on what look like nasty blisters on his feet.