All Roads Lead To Indian Wells

Well what a weekend of tennis. It seems the tennis cream is starting to rise to the top. First time in 9 months that Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal will be at the same tournament.

Novak Djokovic. Some the passages of play this last week have been what we have come to expect from the World Number 1. There have been momentarily lapses from the Serb, but again is proving tougher and tougher to beat with every passing tournament. 13-0 for the season and looking like maybe 2011 could be replicated? He had a couple of sticky moments in the week. Should've closed out the Bautista Agut when serving for the match. Was pushed by Del Potro and held his nerve when it mattered. The match with Berdych again similar to his Wawrinka match with the exception of just bizarre shot selection by the Czech. Had Djokovic on the ropes in the first set and just couldn't maintain his concentration and that missed volley at 5-4 (I think) was just horrible. Djokovic ran off 3 straight games and won the set. There is so much difference between the top 4 and the rest. Djokovic granted hasn't blown me away as an exceptional volleyer, but what he did well against Berdych was play some top approach shots followed with clinical put aways. Berdych just couldn't do the same. Djokovic's form is showing no signs of abbating and that can only mean trouble for the rest of the field.

Rafael Nadal. The man is back and how. Defeat to Zeballos in Chile led many to think maybe Nadal's invincibility on Clay might start to wane. Regardless of it being his first tournament back, it did give many a bit too much food for thought. Victory in Sao Paulo followed. There were some tricky encounters. Berlocq and Alund taking sets of the Spaniard before a straight victory over Nalbandian. Someone who he was starting to resemble when he first took to the court. Then came Acapulco. The last time it would be played on Clay. A tough field lied ahead. Matches against Mayer and Almagro did push him. Maggy certainly can count himself unlucky that he couldn't get a break of serve considering he didn't serve a single DF. Left standing in the final was 3 time champion David Ferrer. Nadal demolished him in brutal fashion. Hitting flatter FH's and BH had some zip on it. Ferrer played an awful match it has to be said. Being beaten by a guy on Clay over the years like he has must really be in the back of his mind. Nadal shortening the points considerably and frankly he looks good. If this is a sign of things to come, then Ferrer enjoy number 4 ranking while you can.

Roger Federer. The legend that is. The AO stark reality that the legs can't go the distance like they used to. Those expecting maybe a second wind of mini dominance was to follow on the back of his Wimbledon success and also his re-claiming of the number one spot. However 2013 is showing the importance of schedule management and this is something the others are now doing. Rafa did last year taking February out and also Murray doing something similar this year. Rotterdam he was playing well until he met Benneteau who nearly slane him at Wimbledon last year. This time Benny was able to do the job. Dubai started bizzarely for Federer. Strange performance against Jaziri, however he bounced back against Granollers and Davydenko. Berdych again proving to be a new thorn in his side. Defeat to him at last years US Open and now in Dubai. Faster courts despite suiting his game are fast becoming his enemy in some instances. Especially against some clean big hitters. Whilst these defeats can be rare, the performances by the big hitters are even more rare. Let's not kid ourselves. Federer is nearing 32 and it would take superhuman ability for him to continue the level and standard of play that has made him the great he is. Question is will he finish below Nadal in the rankings by the YE? Interesting.

Andy Murray - Well the new Slam champion on the scene looked like building on that success achieved at the US Open. Seemed to be getting along in the AO despite not throwing in top performances, but also the draw kindly opening up for him. Finally managed to beat Federer at a Slam in a punishing 5 setter and made his 6th Grand Slam final before tiring out and being picked off quite ruthlessly against Djokovic. Many fans will be hoping more Slam finals lie ahead which might have varying results. After the pain of his defeat at another AO final he decided to take the month off and prepare best he can for IW and Miami and also the Clay season. He clearly has ambition in mind to succeed on the red stuff. Many thought of him as being the 2nd best player on tour, however seeing Nadal against Ferrer last night has altered my view of that claim. Murray will need to hit the ground running in IW and for me must target winning the tournament. Djokovic has laid his claims and as has Nadal. Murray needs a win to kickstart his 2013 campaign. Let's hope the extra work he has put in really starts to pay off with victory at IW.

Rest of the field. Gasquet, Nishikori, Raonic, Cillic, Del Potro, Ferrer and Tsonga have posted tour victories since the AO and this good set them in good stead as we head into the back end of the HC season and onto the clay season. Can these guys make a dent in the 1000 series? I hope so. I see Tsonga, Raonic and Del Potro being the likely threats on the HC and Ferrer might do something on the Clay series. Either way I hope for good things to come.

Next week is when all the fun begins and lets hope for some cracking tennis

Interesting to see how the loathesome trophy biter gets on in a proper tournament and not a 1 point one

Probably QF I would think.

Don't know about that. Ferrer was dismantled completely and if he is the world number 4, I doubt that he will remain there much longer. I don't think he will be there come RG.

If the Top 10 were split in half, Ferrer, 30+ yo, is so much better than the remainder of the bottom half of such a Top 10.

His physical stature is a reminder of Laver and Rosewall. I wonder how many matches Ferrer has lost while holding MPs?

Is that a question you will endeavour to answer LF?

It was a bad day at the office for Ferrer for sure. His FH let him down massively against Nadal and he is much better than what he displayed. He couldn't work the angles around the court and found himself playing up the middle.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Is that a question you will endeavour to answer LF?

Yes, I think I should.

legendkillarV2 wrote:It was a bad day at the office for Ferrer for sure. His FH let him down massively against Nadal and he is much better than what he displayed. He couldn't work the angles around the court and found himself playing up the middle.

It was terrible, putting up mid-court high-bouncing balls in Nadal's strike zone. Maggy handled Nadal better than Ferrer did. Ferrer is considered the energiser bunny, but no one pays attention to his age, IMO. He has been very consistent, without being outstanding, and hence gets consigned to the mediocrity bin of Tennis. The elusive slam final may be something he can aim for, but may never get to one.

Leaving Ferrer out of the discussion for a minute, I am looking forward to Nadal on HC and Federer facing a full gamut to defend his title. This will be Djokovic/Murray, IMO.

There is a slight discrepancy http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/Players/Player-Landing.aspx in this list with Nadal being 4 and Ferrer being 5. Nadal at 5 can cause the draw to appear lopsided.

It could be Federer/Murray/Nadal and Djokovic/Ferrer/Berdych or something strange.

I think Ferrer is a little too predictable in his rallies. Always lines up for a wide FH to the BH in a bid to control the rally and win it. Federer and more recently Djokovic have exposed that ploy with a slice into the court that forces Ferrer to come up with something different and he tends to follow up with a powder puff short ball. Some of Ferrer's serving was brilliant against Nadal. Especially the opening game when he found the T.

I think lack of power and umph in his shots will prevent him achieving that elusive Slam.

Nice article LK. I'm looking forward to seeing how they all perform at the same tournament. I'm slightly surprised at Nadal's decision to actually play, though. If Gulbis is playing (I assume he'll be able to enter the qualifying draw?), it'll be interesting to see whether he can build on his Delray Beach win. It's going to be a fascinating tournament, I bet socal's glad that he's going along this year.

laverfan wrote:Leaving Ferrer out of the discussion for a minute, I am looking forward to Nadal on HC and Federer facing a full gamut to defend his title. This will be Djokovic/Murray, IMO.

There is a slight discrepancy http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/Players/Player-Landing.aspx in this list with Nadal being 4 and Ferrer being 5. Nadal at 5 can cause the draw to appear lopsided.

It could be Federer/Murray/Nadal and Djokovic/Ferrer/Berdych or something strange.

I've been thinking about this a lot in regards to RG, laverfan. Assuming that the rankings stay as they are, with Nadal defending a shedload of points leading up to the tournament and perhaps unlikely to overtake Ferrer, then we could end up with some sort of insanity like Murray, Fed, Nadal and JMDP all on one side of the draw - with Novak, Ferrer and Tsonga on the other side. Alternatively swap Novak with Andy or Roger, depending on who's at #2. Regardless, the wildcard that is Nadal at #5 could make it one of the most draw-dependent slams in many years due to his prowess on the surface.

Very interesting stuff!

Legendkiller, very good article

Excellent post Silver, nice to hear from you again, yes Nadal's unnatural ranking at #5 makes the draws of these tournaments much more important than they otherwise would be if Nadal was 3 or 4. For example on of the big 4 could hypothetically have to play all 3 of the other big 4 members in one tournament to win the title. While another big 4 member could skate away with just playing one big 4 match in the final. Again assuming that everything goes to seeding.

Good posts gents. From a very selfish point of view, I'd love Murray to run through Nadal, Federer and Djokovic on the way to the title but that's pretty unlikely. I don't really have anything else to add except I'm looking forward to a good tournament. Novak's the man to beat, but that's pretty obvious, yes, no? (Sorry )

If Nadal remains fit his low ranking could enable him to do some real damage. He could steal a good few points by beating higher ranked players in the quarters rather than the semi's or final.

The Special Juan wrote:Good posts gents. From a very selfish point of view, I'd love Murray to run through Nadal, Federer and Djokovic on the way to the title but that's pretty unlikely. I don't really have anything else to add except I'm looking forward to a good tournament. Novak's the man to beat, but that's pretty obvious, yes, no? (Sorry )

Yes Juan I think Djoko goes in as the favorite, good post, Murray has had a good rest and should be very dangerous as well as I think the surface and conditions will suit his game as well.

hawkeye wrote:If Nadal remains fit his low ranking could enable him to do some real damage. He could steal a good few points by beating higher ranked players in the quarters rather than the semi's or final.

Worth noting that he will be seeded top 4 if he decides to play Miami and top 4 again in MC, so IW is the only tournament for a while where this scenario occurs. In practical terms, he's the underdog on hard against the other big 4 players even when he is fully fit, so he'll obviously be hoping for Ferrer's section.

Born Slippy wrote: In practical terms, he's the underdog on hard against the other big 4 players even when he is fully fit, so he'll obviously be hoping for Ferrer's section.

If Nadal's fully fit and at his best, Nadal is only underdog against Djokovic in reality.
I'm not sure which 4 players you are talking about. Federer, at the moment has lost a bit of his intensity, and Nadal has a very favourable record against him especially on outdoor hard court. Murray is another one Nadal has a fantastic record against, including hard courts, but Murray has tweaked his game so that could be a really interesting rivalry. And not sure which other player you are talking about Born Slippy? Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro and co. have a chance against a fully fit Rafa but no way would they start favourite.

Born Slippy wrote:In practical terms, he's the underdog on hard against the other big 4 players even when he is fully fit, so he'll obviously be hoping for Ferrer's section.

Ha, I was just going to say don't let Hawkeye see you saying that - but IMBL has replied anyway.

Djokovic would be favourite for sure, Federer & Murray not so sure - will have to see how the earlier rounds go to decide.

IMBL, I think BS just meant the other 3 of the big 4.

especially on indoor hard court?

LuvSports! wrote:especially on indoor hard court?

I immediately edited it back to outdoor hard court

On indoor hard Federer beats Nadal.

YvonneT wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:In practical terms, he's the underdog on hard against the other big 4 players even when he is fully fit, so he'll obviously be hoping for Ferrer's section.

Ha, I was just going to say don't let Hawkeye see you saying that - but IMBL has replied anyway.

Djokovic would be favourite for sure, Federer & Murray not so sure - will have to see how the earlier rounds go to decide.

IMBL, I think BS just meant the other 3 of the big 4.

Well I was talking about if Nadal could return to his earlier level/ intensity on all surfaces.
Of course if Nadal is below that I'd see Federer and Murray favourite over him, and that's what I think is the case this year in Indian Wells.

Remember that Rafa hasn't won a HC title for 2 and a half years.
In that time Murray has won 6, Fed has won 4 and Djoko has won 13 (and that's just outdoor numbers)

Add to that Rafa's time off and it's hard to place him 2nd favourite for IW.

Julius, I don't think anyone said Nadal is second favourite for IW.
As for his HC record, I believe Nadal has reached many hard court finals, and lost to Djokovic! Not so much to Federer or Murray.

A lot of it of course depends on the level Nadal can return to on all surfaces. He seemed to be serving well, but we'll see what happens in the next few months.
If he can return to his best imo the only player he should really fear his Djokovic. Maybe Murray as well, but at the moment Nadal holds the edge on hard courts if we look at previous matches. 6-5 to Nadal, and 2 of those losses were matches where Nadal was severely injured. So really 6-3 (in terms of a not injured Nadal).

Red wrote:Julius, I don't think anyone said Nadal is second favourite for IW.
As for his HC record, I believe Nadal has reached many hard court finals, and lost to Djokovic! Not so much to Federer or Murray.

I think you'll find my stats are accurate

If you are alluding to the 2010 aus open match murray was dominating it before rafa retired and he only stopped running in the 3rd set, so don't try the "severly injured" trick.

LuvSports! wrote:If you are alluding to the 2010 aus open match murray was dominating it before rafa retired and he only stopped running in the 3rd set, so don't try the "severly injured" trick.

Oh c'mon, you have to try the 'severly injured' trick - if you get lucky, someone could fall for it.

In AO 2010 the first set Murray won, but Nadal hurt his knee just before the second set TB. Then I believe Nadal withdrew in the third set.
Murray may have won that even if Nadal was fully fit all the way through, or Nadal may have come back to win. Who knows? Still, all credit to Murray for going through, it's not his fault Nadal had injury problems.
I don't think Nadal would have retired unless he was actually injured Julius- so I don't think Nadal was trying any trick.

As for the Rotterdam match, I think one should see Murray's comments in the pre-match speech.

Good analysis by the way from LK, in particular I concur on the fact that Nadal has laid down his marker and is again looking like at least the second best player on tour. He has 2 titles and only one loss so far this season albeit he didn't play in the biggest tourney of the year at the AO. It will be intriguing how he handles his first physical test of that leg on a hardcourt.

Red wrote:As for his HC record, I believe Nadal has reached many hard court finals, and lost to Djokovic! Not so much to Federer or Murray.

I assumed there would be quite a lot of hard court finals since his last title hardcourt title in Tokyo 2010. When I started to count them, it's not as many as I thought.
2 slams (USO 2011 & AO 2012 both lost to Djokovic). AO 2011 lost to Ferrer & didn't play USO 2012 or AO 2013.
2 masters (IW 2011 & Miami 2011 both lost to Djokovic)
1 ATP500 (Tokyo 2011 lost to Murray)
plus one indoor final at WTF2010 (lost to Federer).

Whether we can attribute his pre-final losses in the other tournaments to being out of sorts after some of the 2011 losses to Djokovic or being tired in the later part of the season or the tournament not mattering to him or whatever, it seems it is not as hard to beat Rafa in a BO3 tournament as I had instinctively thought.

(Of course, in the interests of balance, if I did the same with Federer & Murray, I wouldn't find great consistency either - that's really just for Djokovic - but still maybe even at his best he's not a firm 2nd favourite in a BO3 hardcourt tournament).

Red wrote:In AO 2010 the first set Murray won, but Nadal hurt his knee just before the second set TB. Then I believe Nadal withdrew in the third set.
Murray may have won that even if Nadal was fully fit all the way through, or Nadal may have come back to win. Who knows? Still, all credit to Murray for going through, it's not his fault Nadal had injury problems.
I don't think Nadal would have retired unless he was actually injured Julius- so I don't think Nadal was trying any trick.

As for the Rotterdam match, I think one should see Murray's comments in the pre-match speech.

No, we weren't saying it was Rafa trying the trick.

He wouldn't withdraw from a match unless he was actually injured. Anyway I'm not quite sure why that's your main focus.

Yvonne makes a good post Nadal has not played particularly well on hardcourts the last couple of years, albeit in 2011 I think he did play well on hardcourts reaching many finals of the most prestigious hardcourt events but losing everyone to Djokovic. Frankly on a hardcourt I would favor Djokovic as 1, Murray as 2, Nadal as 3, and Federer as 4. This is assuming an outdoor hardcourt. On indoor I think Federer moves up the list as he does on grass.

You say hasn't played well on HC in the last 2 years, but:

2011- AO was injured against Ferrer. After that reached all the finals in the major events closing to Djokovic (IW, Miami, US).
Late 2011 seemed deflated after his losses to Djokovic and also suffered from a shoulder issue in the indoor hard court season- no doubt had some poor results.
2012- Reached final of AO, losing in epic to Djokovic. Was playing really well.
IW- beaten by Federer who was in fine form, then withdrew injured from Miami. The injured from HC for rest of season.
I think Djokovic has dominated him, not sure anyone else can say that too confidently. We'll have to see which level Nadal can get back on, he will be working on improving his game.

Yes, it is fair to say that in 2011 he was the second best player on a hardcourt as he reached almost every final Amritia. That is a fair point that you make and I alluded to it in my post. The injury issues certainly did keep him from doing much last year. I don't doubt Nadal can beat anyone on his day on a hardcourt, I just think Murray has become a better hardcourt player and has shown his chops by winning some big events (masters and slams). I think if we are going to rate the best on hardcourt we have to take into account the fact that murray has played in the last 2 hardcourt slam finals and has won one of those matches. So for me on an outdoor hardcourt right now it goes 1. Djoko 2. Murray 3. Nadal

Fair point Socal, but I think we have to see how Nadal comes back.
He has got that extra edge if he plays his best that I don't think Murray possesses- on any surface. But it's really close, and Murray has improved his game no doubt- it is a potentially exciting rivalry.

Red wrote:In AO 2010 the first set Murray won, but Nadal hurt his knee just before the second set TB. Then I believe Nadal withdrew in the third set.
Murray may have won that even if Nadal was fully fit all the way through, or Nadal may have come back to win. Who knows? Still, all credit to Murray for going through, it's not his fault Nadal had injury problems.
I don't think Nadal would have retired unless he was actually injured Julius- so I don't think Nadal was trying any trick.

As for the Rotterdam match, I think one should see Murray's comments in the pre-match speech.

You've just backtracked there.
The way murray played for 2 sets and the way nadal did before he got injured, imo murray was going to win in straights, maybe 4.

He may have, Nadal may have also come back. We don't know.
Nadal also said his knee started hindering him in the second set tiebreak. In the first set when Murray was serving for the set at 5-3 Nadal also had numerous break points to break back- so it's wasn't a hugely one sided match.
My point about the injury stays, I don't think Nadal would retire from a match unless he would actually be injured.
Overall I'm not sure why you and Julius keep talking about this lal, even including this and the match where Nadal was bagelled while hobbling in Rotterdam Nadal still leads the H2H vs Murray on hard courts.

Looking at the finals info that I posted, I really think you have to separate out Rafa's BO3 hardcourt record from BO5.

BO3 not only is he is he prone to occasional losses to Murray & Federer but to more random upsets (Dodig, Mayer, GGL). As I said, you can attribute these to various factors - I'm sure these tournaments were not his top targets for the season - but what BO3 hardcourt tournament is? Hence why I'm thinking he shouldn't be 2nd favourite - even not just coming back from injury. Though then I'd have to find a 2nd favourite who's not subject to random losses on hardcourt in BO3, which may present a problem!

Come on murray fans I watched that match, Nadal came up lame. Murray was playing great that slam and might have beaten a healthy nadal but the guy couldn't make a go of it and was clearly injured, I don't even know what the discussion is about. I mean is it all over the adjective "serious"?

BO3 hard courts Nadal is dodgy. But Murray does has had some poor results in Masters 1000 matches on the surfaces as well (although he does do well in the Asia swing after the US).

We only keep talking about it because you keep talking about it. In fact, you wwere the one who brought it up. I'm not sure whether to lo l or lal - or lolal.

Red wrote:He may have, Nadal may have also come back. We don't know.
Nadal also said his knee started hindering him in the second set tiebreak. In the first set when Murray was serving for the set at 5-3 Nadal also had numerous break points to break back- so it's wasn't a hugely one sided match.
My point about the injury stays, I don't think Nadal would retire from a match unless he would actually be injured.
Overall I'm not sure why you and Julius keep talking about this lal, even including this and the match where Nadal was bagelled while hobbling in Rotterdam Nadal still leads the H2H vs Murray on hard courts.

Yes because out of the blue I just randomly brought up their aus open match.....
Of course you know why I am talking about it, because you brought it up! Your rather imprudent comment about being "severely injured" made me respond as I didn't agree.
Murray was inspired that day, nadal was at times outplayed, but nadal wasn't at his best but at the start there was no hint of an injury.

Julius, I wrote quite a few posts talking about the permutations of the top players, and how Nadal has done on hard courts in the past few years and his previous record against the likes of Murray and Federer on hard courts. I also mentioned that Nadal was seriously injured for 2 of them (withdrawing after sustaining one in the TB in the second set of AO 2010, and bagelled after injury in Rotterdam).
Out of all my points you are only really interested in drilling me on my side note about the Nadal injury.

Julius is interested in drilling other dudes, that is new information that I need time to digest.

socal1976 wrote:Julius is interested in drilling other dudes, that is new information that I need time to digest.

Only a virtual drilling, of course!

socal1976 wrote:Julius is interested in drilling other dudes, that is new information that I need time to digest.

I meant metaphorically.
Seriously though, I write a long post about Nadal's prospects on hard courts and his record; but Julius and LuvSports just wait so that they can criticise my wording on one of my mundane side points.
At no point did I say Nadal was injured at the start of AO, I would be lying as it was at the start of the second set TB. I do think Nadal would only withdraw if he was seriously injured, if he was fine then he wouldn't randomly quit.

no you didn't, twice you said nadal was injured, first "severely" and then "seriously".

You do a disservice to murray saying that, he was on top in the match, no doubt about it. So because of your comment, which i disagreed with, I decided to call you on it, what is so bad about that?

Your point comes across that if Nadal wasn't "seriously" injured, murray would not have won. On that one day, of the many times they have played, murray was the better man. Simple.

Perhaps IMBL, in future you could helpfully note which portions of your posts are up for discussion and which we're not supposed to talk about.

LuvSports! wrote:no you didn't, twice you said nadal was injured, first "severely" and then "seriously".

??
I know I said that. I don't think Nadal would withdraw unless he was seriously injured, he picked up this injury at the start of the second set TB. As for the Rotterdam match, see Murray's comments in the pre-match speech

LuvSports! wrote:
Your point comes across that if Nadal wasn't "seriously" injured, murray would not have won.

That's simply not true. This feels more like an interrogation session than a discussion.
This is what I said at 7:19 pm:
Murray may have won that even if Nadal was fully fit all the way through, or Nadal may have come back to win. Who knows? Still, all credit to Murray for going through, it's not his fault Nadal had injury problems.

Red wrote:Seriously though, I write a long post about Nadal's prospects on hard courts and his record; but Julius and LuvSports just wait so that they can criticise my wording on one of my mundane side points.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Perhaps IMBL, in future you could helpfully note which portions of your posts are up for discussion and which we're not supposed to talk about.

I think you understand what I'm trying to say.