All Roads Lead To Indian Wells

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Well what a weekend of tennis. It seems the tennis cream is starting to rise to the top. First time in 9 months that Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal will be at the same tournament.

Novak Djokovic. Some the passages of play this last week have been what we have come to expect from the World Number 1. There have been momentarily lapses from the Serb, but again is proving tougher and tougher to beat with every passing tournament. 13-0 for the season and looking like maybe 2011 could be replicated? He had a couple of sticky moments in the week. Should've closed out the Bautista Agut when serving for the match. Was pushed by Del Potro and held his nerve when it mattered. The match with Berdych again similar to his Wawrinka match with the exception of just bizarre shot selection by the Czech. Had Djokovic on the ropes in the first set and just couldn't maintain his concentration and that missed volley at 5-4 (I think) was just horrible. Djokovic ran off 3 straight games and won the set. There is so much difference between the top 4 and the rest. Djokovic granted hasn't blown me away as an exceptional volleyer, but what he did well against Berdych was play some top approach shots followed with clinical put aways. Berdych just couldn't do the same. Djokovic's form is showing no signs of abbating and that can only mean trouble for the rest of the field.

Rafael Nadal. The man is back and how. Defeat to Zeballos in Chile led many to think maybe Nadal's invincibility on Clay might start to wane. Regardless of it being his first tournament back, it did give many a bit too much food for thought. Victory in Sao Paulo followed. There were some tricky encounters. Berlocq and Alund taking sets of the Spaniard before a straight victory over Nalbandian. Someone who he was starting to resemble when he first took to the court. Then came Acapulco. The last time it would be played on Clay. A tough field lied ahead. Matches against Mayer and Almagro did push him. Maggy certainly can count himself unlucky that he couldn't get a break of serve considering he didn't serve a single DF. Left standing in the final was 3 time champion David Ferrer. Nadal demolished him in brutal fashion. Hitting flatter FH's and BH had some zip on it. Ferrer played an awful match it has to be said. Being beaten by a guy on Clay over the years like he has must really be in the back of his mind. Nadal shortening the points considerably and frankly he looks good. If this is a sign of things to come, then Ferrer enjoy number 4 ranking while you can.

Roger Federer. The legend that is. The AO stark reality that the legs can't go the distance like they used to. Those expecting maybe a second wind of mini dominance was to follow on the back of his Wimbledon success and also his re-claiming of the number one spot. However 2013 is showing the importance of schedule management and this is something the others are now doing. Rafa did last year taking February out and also Murray doing something similar this year. Rotterdam he was playing well until he met Benneteau who nearly slane him at Wimbledon last year. This time Benny was able to do the job. Dubai started bizzarely for Federer. Strange performance against Jaziri, however he bounced back against Granollers and Davydenko. Berdych again proving to be a new thorn in his side. Defeat to him at last years US Open and now in Dubai. Faster courts despite suiting his game are fast becoming his enemy in some instances. Especially against some clean big hitters. Whilst these defeats can be rare, the performances by the big hitters are even more rare. Let's not kid ourselves. Federer is nearing 32 and it would take superhuman ability for him to continue the level and standard of play that has made him the great he is. Question is will he finish below Nadal in the rankings by the YE? Interesting.

Andy Murray - Well the new Slam champion on the scene looked like building on that success achieved at the US Open. Seemed to be getting along in the AO despite not throwing in top performances, but also the draw kindly opening up for him. Finally managed to beat Federer at a Slam in a punishing 5 setter and made his 6th Grand Slam final before tiring out and being picked off quite ruthlessly against Djokovic. Many fans will be hoping more Slam finals lie ahead which might have varying results. After the pain of his defeat at another AO final he decided to take the month off and prepare best he can for IW and Miami and also the Clay season. He clearly has ambition in mind to succeed on the red stuff. Many thought of him as being the 2nd best player on tour, however seeing Nadal against Ferrer last night has altered my view of that claim. Murray will need to hit the ground running in IW and for me must target winning the tournament. Djokovic has laid his claims and as has Nadal. Murray needs a win to kickstart his 2013 campaign. Let's hope the extra work he has put in really starts to pay off with victory at IW.

Rest of the field. Gasquet, Nishikori, Raonic, Cillic, Del Potro, Ferrer and Tsonga have posted tour victories since the AO and this good set them in good stead as we head into the back end of the HC season and onto the clay season. Can these guys make a dent in the 1000 series? I hope so. I see Tsonga, Raonic and Del Potro being the likely threats on the HC and Ferrer might do something on the Clay series. Either way I hope for good things to come.

Next week is when all the fun begins and lets hope for some cracking tennis

I don't think any player aside from Tipsy would retire during a match if they weren't injured. What's the point? (Unless you are making a point of course)

The Special Juan wrote:I don't think any player aside from Tipsy would retire during a match if they weren't injured. What's the point? (Unless you are making a point of course)

Precisely. I'm not quite sure what the big fuss is all about.
Even including the matches Nadal withdrew from injury (before anyone jumps- Murray may still have won these matches if Nadal was fully fit- who knows?), Nadal leads the H2H series I was talking about.

What's much more relevant, is the improvements Murray has made in his game. His second serve is less of a weakness now, and so is his forehand. Mentally I think he's improved as well- although I was disappointed at him falling away in the AO final.

What I'm implying of course, is that Murray could use these improvements to try and turn around his record against Nadal.
That's why I believe that if Nadal comes back to his best, this could be a very exciting rivalry!

Red wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I don't think any player aside from Tipsy would retire during a match if they weren't injured. What's the point? (Unless you are making a point of course)

Precisely. I'm not quite sure what the big fuss is all about.
Even including the matches Nadal withdrew from injury (before anyone jumps- Murray may still have won these matches if Nadal was fully fit- who knows?), Nadal leads the H2H series I was talking about.

What's much more relevant, is the improvements Murray has made in his game. His second serve is less of a weakness now, and so is his forehand. Mentally I think he's improved as well- although I was disappointed at him falling away in the AO final.

I always thought Murray mentally imploded v Nadal against any other player for reasons that I just don't know. Sometimes you see Murray and think "how does he ever lose to this guy?" and sometimes you think "how has he ever beaten this guy?" Sometimes you see both during the same match (like that year at Wimbledon). It's a strange match-up: much like Federer v Murray and Federer v Nadal, the meetings are rarely very close and someone's normally on the end of a hiding.

The Special Juan wrote:

Red wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I don't think any player aside from Tipsy would retire during a match if they weren't injured. What's the point? (Unless you are making a point of course)

Precisely. I'm not quite sure what the big fuss is all about.
Even including the matches Nadal withdrew from injury (before anyone jumps- Murray may still have won these matches if Nadal was fully fit- who knows?), Nadal leads the H2H series I was talking about.

What's much more relevant, is the improvements Murray has made in his game. His second serve is less of a weakness now, and so is his forehand. Mentally I think he's improved as well- although I was disappointed at him falling away in the AO final.

I always thought Murray mentally imploded v Nadal against any other player for reasons that I just don't know. Sometimes you see Murray and think "how does he ever lose to this guy?" and sometimes you think "how has he ever beaten this guy?" Sometimes you see both during the same match (like that year at Wimbledon). It's a strange match-up: much like Federer v Murray and Federer v Nadal, the meetings are rarely very close and someone's normally on the end of a hiding.

TSJ, I don't think Nadal has ever been given a full hiding in a match.
There has been a few one sided sets either way (final set of Tokyo, few sets of Wimby 2011 etc.); but as a full match I don't think Nadal has ever been given a total hiding.
In-fact I've done some research, the only time Murray has won a match in straight sets against Nadal (not counting when he withdrew from injury) is Toronto 2010 which was 6-3 6-4. Wouldn't call that a hiding.

Red wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:

Red wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I don't think any player aside from Tipsy would retire during a match if they weren't injured. What's the point? (Unless you are making a point of course)

Precisely. I'm not quite sure what the big fuss is all about.
Even including the matches Nadal withdrew from injury (before anyone jumps- Murray may still have won these matches if Nadal was fully fit- who knows?), Nadal leads the H2H series I was talking about.

What's much more relevant, is the improvements Murray has made in his game. His second serve is less of a weakness now, and so is his forehand. Mentally I think he's improved as well- although I was disappointed at him falling away in the AO final.

I always thought Murray mentally imploded v Nadal against any other player for reasons that I just don't know. Sometimes you see Murray and think "how does he ever lose to this guy?" and sometimes you think "how has he ever beaten this guy?" Sometimes you see both during the same match (like that year at Wimbledon). It's a strange match-up: much like Federer v Murray and Federer v Nadal, the meetings are rarely very close and someone's normally on the end of a hiding.

TSJ, I don't think Nadal has ever been given a full hiding in a match.
There has been a few one sided sets either way (final set of Tokyo, few sets of Wimby 2011 etc.); but as a full match I don't think Nadal has ever been given a total hiding.
In-fact I've done some research, the only time Murray has won a match in straight sets against Nadal (not counting when he withdrew from injury) is Toronto 2010 which was 6-3 6-4. Wouldn't call that a hiding.

There have been a couple of 3rd set bagels but Murray rarely beats him

Back to Indian Wells. This probably the best hard court tournament for Nadal to make his HC debut for the year. Traditionally, it is probably the slowest MS1000 tournament outside of clay. He has won the title twice, and with the wind normally a factor, his pretty much peerless control in trying times means he could feasibly make some inroads. That said with this being his first tournament on a 'unnatural' surface, he may well get knocked out first round.

With that glowing report out of the way. Djokovic is the mean to beat. Unbeaten to start the year, although it doesnt quite have the 2011 "Mr. Invincible" feel, Berdych and Wawrinka had real chances.

Federer, playing only one MS in the first North American swing, should be very competitive. After this he only plays again at Madrid, if I'm not mistaken. I would be suprised, truth if he doesn't put in a decent showing.

Murray is still on a slight tear. Slam finalist, and already has a title. Probably second favourite after Djokovic.

As for rest... Well Ferrer should be around there. Berdych, Tsonga and JMDP should produce an upset between them.

So in order of those most likely to win
Djokovic
Murray
Federer
Nadal (if he trusts the knee)
Berdych (seems to at least be trying)
JMDP
Tsonga
Ferrer (likely to beat the above three, but less likely to beat the big 4 than other 3)

Can't disagree with that KingRaf

I believe you are not giving murray enough credit (i.e. So really 6-3 (in terms of a not injured Nadal - I don't agree with this bit at all).

I think what you said is harsh on murray. Murray was the better man on the day in aus 2010. J'ai fini, over and out.

Speaking of improved serves: Odds on Rafa using the 135-140 mph howitzer more often in his second coming? I know he doesnt like serving huge as the ball comes back faster, but does he have another choice if he wishes to remain healthy and competitive outside of clay? Him owning that type of serve and not using it is akin to to a formula 1 driver electing not to use the fastest car on the team.

Luvsports- I did say Murray may have won even if not for the injury.

I agree with Kingraf's order of favourites.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/tenniss-fab-four-reunited-again-at-indian-wells-after-travelling-on-long-and-winding-road-8518554.htm

article re the FAB FOUR AND INDIAN WELLS from the INDFEPENDENT

Interesting article, even though Federer is harldy mentioned - the forgotten man of tennis?

Djokovic full of praise for the so-called (by socal) 'snooze-fest' tournament in Dubai.

Julius let me ask you if they paid a six figure fee to show up, put you up in a suite at the burg al Arab, and then you walked away with nearly half a million dollars for a weeks work at a tournament you have won 4 times, would you not find something nice to say about dubai. I don't doubt he believes what he says and I don't doubt that I have different opinion. If I was Djokovic I would vote for elevating it to a slam. Outside of Fed's match with Berdy can't really think of another halfway interesting match in the whole tournament. But this makes this year's snoozefest much better than last year's dull version of this event.

Good post Kingraf, pretty well thought out on the favorites I can't disagree much. As to the conditions of indian wells the ball actually moves through the air very quickly in the dry desert there, the court though is probably the slowest of all hardcourts. And the wind can be monstrous, they have giant windfarm about 10 miles up the road not exactly a good idea to locate tennis tournaments in areas that support wind turbines. But hey everything else about the event is pretty great, plus the massive prize money and attendance it draws every year. This year I will be attending but only for the third round I bought tickets late and couldn't get good seats any other day. The good seats sold out way faster this year than in the past.

"They have over 100,000 people coming to watch. I think these facts say enough...." Or not, depending who you talk to

Isn't Murray 5-3 on hard against Rafa since his first win against him? He has twice as many titles on hard courts and won the last match they played dropping 4 points in the final set. Hard to see why anyone would think Rafa would be favourite against him.

JuliusHMarx wrote:"They have over 100,000 people coming to watch. I think these facts say enough...." Or not, depending who you talk to

Wow, 100,000 people go to the dubai event well that makes about one fifth the attendance of IW and about 1/3 the attendance of cincy. The stadium is way too small for a master's anyway.

Silver wrote:
I've been thinking about this a lot in regards to RG, laverfan. Assuming that the rankings stay as they are, with Nadal defending a shedload of points leading up to the tournament and perhaps unlikely to overtake Ferrer, then we could end up with some sort of insanity like Murray, Fed, Nadal and JMDP all on one side of the draw - with Novak, Ferrer and Tsonga on the other side. Alternatively swap Novak with Andy or Roger, depending on who's at #2. Regardless, the wildcard that is Nadal at #5 could make it one of the most draw-dependent slams in many years due to his prowess on the surface.

Very interesting stuff!

Ferrer at #4 now (6665) has - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/David-Ferrer.aspx?t=rb
Nadal at #5 now (6105) has - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb

A 500 points differential, Berdych (4,740) and Del Potro (4,410) are too far away from Nadal-Ferrer, but in theory could win MSes (IW/Miami)

Nadal has 2,720 (MC-W, Rome-W, IW-SF, Miami-SF) while Ferrer has 765 (MC-R32, Rome-S, Madrid-QF, Miami-QF). If Ferrer plays steady and reaches QFs/SFs then Nadal has to defend MC/Rome to be close to #4, otherwise Nadal will at #5.

Nadal probably needs to win all three clay court masters and Barcelona to overtake Ferrer.

I don't see how he could BS overtake Ferrer even if he did that, he pretty much won everything last year on clay except madrid so where is he going to pick up points on ferrer especially if he doesn't play miami and loses points there as well?

socal1976 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:"They have over 100,000 people coming to watch. I think these facts say enough...." Or not, depending who you talk to

Wow, 100,000 people go to the dubai event well that makes about one fifth the attendance of IW and about 1/3 the attendance of cincy. The stadium is way too small for a master's anyway.

What does upgrading to a Masters have to do with the fact that so many people enjoy what you term a 'snooze-fest'? Is it really so very hard to admit that so many fans (and players) enjoy tennis on a faster surface and enjoy a style of tennis that you speak of in derisory terms?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:"They have over 100,000 people coming to watch. I think these facts say enough...." Or not, depending who you talk to

Wow, 100,000 people go to the dubai event well that makes about one fifth the attendance of IW and about 1/3 the attendance of cincy. The stadium is way too small for a master's anyway.

What does upgrading to a Masters have to do with the fact that so many people enjoy what you term a 'snooze-fest'? Is it really so very hard to admit that so many fans (and players) enjoy tennis on a faster surface and enjoy a style of tennis that you speak of in derisory terms?

Did the winner get a hat? No. Pfft!

Born Slippy wrote:Isn't Murray 5-3 on hard against Rafa since his first win against him? He has twice as many titles on hard courts and won the last match they played dropping 4 points in the final set. Hard to see why anyone would think Rafa would be favourite against him.

Lal Born Slippy, that's Amritia-style manipulation of stats.
Firstly not sure why we should randomly start counting since Murray has won. It just clearly gives an advantage to one player. Can I start counting since Nadal's first win? Nadal is only one year older, and Nadal himself was not so good on hard-courts when he was younger. Infact in 2010 Nadal took it up another level, his performance in his 2012 loss in AO final was fantastic.
Overall Nadal leads 6-5 on hard-courts, and two of these wins were influenced by Nadal's injury. Rotterdam pre-match speech Murray said himself 'I'm surprised Nadal played that well with only one leg'- he was bagelled and could barely move his knee in the final set. AO 2010 Nadal had to withdraw after sustaining an knee injury at the start of the second set TB. Of course Murray may have won both these matches anyway, or Nadal may have; we can't really know for sure.
Overall it's a close and exciting rivalry- and will hopefully continue to be so if Nadal can come back to his best.

And btw Born, I remember you said earlier that you think even if Nadal comes back to his fully fit best you think Federer would be favourite against him? Can you back this up please?
We could have a really good debate there, looking forward to that.

hawkeye wrote:Did the winner get a hat? No. Pfft!

The winner got a fast dhow, which when worn upside down will allow you to race on water or walk on water, while a sombrero, with all it's colours would make one look like a buoy at sea.

Other uses of a dhow in the Gulf of Aden are to race up to the Horn of Africa and kidnap an oil tanker for ransom, a la the Somalian pirates. Mexican pirates just will have a pretty pinata to sit on the beach with.

Pfft!

At the end of the day I think Nadal just possesses that something extra- another gear in- in the biggest moments that Murray can't produce.
It is why Nadal is only one year older than Murray but has 11 Grand Slams compared to 1.

Now I'm not denying that Murray is a great player, but I don't see him in the same league as any of the top 3. I don't think that ability wise it's a big difference, I feel the other three all of the X factor mentality- they can raise their games in the biggest moments. I know he did really well in the US Open, but I am seeing his record overall- 1 win out of 6 Grand Slam finals.

I love this concept of a pre-match speech that Rotterdam were experimenting with - and how spookily accurate the players predictions could be

YvonneT wrote:I love this concept of a pre-match speech that Rotterdam were experimenting with - and how spookily accurate the players predictions could be

Lal, I meant post-match

Red wrote:Lal Born Slippy, that's Amritia-style manipulation of stats.

Should I consider this an admission of guilt, like the tobacco stat.

Red wrote:... and two of these wins were influenced by Nadal's injury. Rotterdam pre-match speech Murray said himself 'I'm surprised Nadal played that well with only one leg'- he was bagelled and could barely move his knee in the final set.

Ah the Rotterdam bagel on one leg or the Tokyo bagel on both, take your pick.

laverfan wrote:

Red wrote:Lal Born Slippy, that's Amritia-style manipulation of stats.

Should I consider this an admission of guilt, like the tobacco stat.

I'm telling you- cigarettes are bad for your lungs. Just take my word for it.

laverfan wrote:

Red wrote:... and two of these wins were influenced by Nadal's injury. Rotterdam pre-match speech Murray said himself 'I'm surprised Nadal played that well with only one leg'- he was bagelled and could barely move his knee in the final set.

Ah the Rotterdam bagel on one leg or the Tokyo bagel on both, take your pick.

I don't get what's funny there.
Do you want a quote from Murray on the post match speech of Murray in Rotterdam Nadal was hobbling around the court in the 3rd set.
Different from Tokyo final where Murray went ultra-aggressive while Nadal had lost his intensity slightly... which resulted in the whitewash.

Anyway I'm gong to sleep now. If anyone sees Born Slippy to back up his/her comments of how Federer will be favourite against Rafa if Nadal comes back to his fully fit best.
Indoor hard excluded, that sounds like a really enjoyable and fun debate.

Red wrote:I'm telling you- cigarettes are bad for your lungs. Just take my word for it.

Agreed.

Red wrote:... and two of these wins were influenced by Nadal's injury. Rotterdam pre-match speech Murray said himself 'I'm surprised Nadal played that well with only one leg'- he was bagelled and could barely move his knee in the final set.

laverfan wrote:Ah the Rotterdam bagel on one leg or the Tokyo bagel on both, take your pick.

I don't get what's funny there.
Do you want a quote from Murray on the post match speech of Murray in Rotterdam Nadal was hobbling around the court in the 3rd set.
Different from Tokyo final where Murray went ultra-aggressive while Nadal had lost his intensity slightly... which resulted in the whitewash.

I watched both matches, I do realise Rotterdam was different. If I were Nadal in the Rotterdam match, I would have retired. Nadal had quite a few issues in 2009.

Laverfan

JuliusHMarx wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:"They have over 100,000 people coming to watch. I think these facts say enough...." Or not, depending who you talk to

Wow, 100,000 people go to the dubai event well that makes about one fifth the attendance of IW and about 1/3 the attendance of cincy. The stadium is way too small for a master's anyway.

What does upgrading to a Masters have to do with the fact that so many people enjoy what you term a 'snooze-fest'? Is it really so very hard to admit that so many fans (and players) enjoy tennis on a faster surface and enjoy a style of tennis that you speak of in derisory terms?

Enjoy it but the tournament rarely produces very good tennis. It didn't this year either eventhough Djoko won, there was one close 3 set match this year though that was intriguing, which is one more than it had last year. It is a good event but it is usually pretty dissapointing when compared to the field that shows up.

Apparently it is that hard to admit.

I personally like Dubai. But, the quality of play is usually less than stellar. I put it down to the faster surface.

How high above sea level is IW, Socal? I live in Johannesburg, about 1700m above sea level. Thus I usually laugh at any claims about places where the ball travels fast through the air. Especially Madrid at its puny 900m.

Isn't wind more the issue at IW?

The road to RG for Nadal and Ferrer

Ferrer - 1,075 points to defend
Nadal - 3,310 points to defend

The pressure is really on for Nadal, though I doubt he won't sweat it.

Agree. He's just glad to be back playing and will, I suspect, be happy to face whoever he has to at RG, even if he ended up 9th seed and playing Murray in round of 16.

lydian wrote:Agree. He's just glad to be back playing and will, I suspect, be happy to face whoever he has to at RG, even if he ended up 9th seed and playing Murray in round of 16.

...it isn't going to happen in reality but Nadal isn't a guy to worry too much about draws...he's going to beat just about anyone at RG no matter what order they line them up in...

If Nadal goes in at number 5 seed at RG, Djokovic, Murray and Federer will be bricking it.

legendkillarV2 wrote:If Nadal goes in at number 5 seed at RG, Djokovic, Murray and Federer will be bricking it.

Very true.

You have to say that if Ferrer ends up with Nadal in his half, draw fixing will come flying back into the spotlight.

kingraf wrote:How high above sea level is IW, Socal? I live in Johannesburg, about 1700m above sea level. Thus I usually laugh at any claims about places where the ball travels fast through the air. Especially Madrid at its puny 900m.

Indian wells is not a high altitude tournament very close to sea level, although it is surrounded by hills and mountains it is in a valley.

lydian wrote:Isn't wind more the issue at IW?

Yep, it is right up the road from a giant windfarm.

Isn´t it prone to being a bit on the windy side Socal ..or am I thinking of somewhere else.. I remember one year the match between Rafa and Andy being stopped on several occasions because of flotsum and jetsum being tossed around the court.

Sorry I missed Lydian´s question