All Roads Lead To Indian Wells

First topic message reminder :

Well what a weekend of tennis. It seems the tennis cream is starting to rise to the top. First time in 9 months that Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal will be at the same tournament.

Novak Djokovic. Some the passages of play this last week have been what we have come to expect from the World Number 1. There have been momentarily lapses from the Serb, but again is proving tougher and tougher to beat with every passing tournament. 13-0 for the season and looking like maybe 2011 could be replicated? He had a couple of sticky moments in the week. Should've closed out the Bautista Agut when serving for the match. Was pushed by Del Potro and held his nerve when it mattered. The match with Berdych again similar to his Wawrinka match with the exception of just bizarre shot selection by the Czech. Had Djokovic on the ropes in the first set and just couldn't maintain his concentration and that missed volley at 5-4 (I think) was just horrible. Djokovic ran off 3 straight games and won the set. There is so much difference between the top 4 and the rest. Djokovic granted hasn't blown me away as an exceptional volleyer, but what he did well against Berdych was play some top approach shots followed with clinical put aways. Berdych just couldn't do the same. Djokovic's form is showing no signs of abbating and that can only mean trouble for the rest of the field.

Rafael Nadal. The man is back and how. Defeat to Zeballos in Chile led many to think maybe Nadal's invincibility on Clay might start to wane. Regardless of it being his first tournament back, it did give many a bit too much food for thought. Victory in Sao Paulo followed. There were some tricky encounters. Berlocq and Alund taking sets of the Spaniard before a straight victory over Nalbandian. Someone who he was starting to resemble when he first took to the court. Then came Acapulco. The last time it would be played on Clay. A tough field lied ahead. Matches against Mayer and Almagro did push him. Maggy certainly can count himself unlucky that he couldn't get a break of serve considering he didn't serve a single DF. Left standing in the final was 3 time champion David Ferrer. Nadal demolished him in brutal fashion. Hitting flatter FH's and BH had some zip on it. Ferrer played an awful match it has to be said. Being beaten by a guy on Clay over the years like he has must really be in the back of his mind. Nadal shortening the points considerably and frankly he looks good. If this is a sign of things to come, then Ferrer enjoy number 4 ranking while you can.

Roger Federer. The legend that is. The AO stark reality that the legs can't go the distance like they used to. Those expecting maybe a second wind of mini dominance was to follow on the back of his Wimbledon success and also his re-claiming of the number one spot. However 2013 is showing the importance of schedule management and this is something the others are now doing. Rafa did last year taking February out and also Murray doing something similar this year. Rotterdam he was playing well until he met Benneteau who nearly slane him at Wimbledon last year. This time Benny was able to do the job. Dubai started bizzarely for Federer. Strange performance against Jaziri, however he bounced back against Granollers and Davydenko. Berdych again proving to be a new thorn in his side. Defeat to him at last years US Open and now in Dubai. Faster courts despite suiting his game are fast becoming his enemy in some instances. Especially against some clean big hitters. Whilst these defeats can be rare, the performances by the big hitters are even more rare. Let's not kid ourselves. Federer is nearing 32 and it would take superhuman ability for him to continue the level and standard of play that has made him the great he is. Question is will he finish below Nadal in the rankings by the YE? Interesting.

Andy Murray - Well the new Slam champion on the scene looked like building on that success achieved at the US Open. Seemed to be getting along in the AO despite not throwing in top performances, but also the draw kindly opening up for him. Finally managed to beat Federer at a Slam in a punishing 5 setter and made his 6th Grand Slam final before tiring out and being picked off quite ruthlessly against Djokovic. Many fans will be hoping more Slam finals lie ahead which might have varying results. After the pain of his defeat at another AO final he decided to take the month off and prepare best he can for IW and Miami and also the Clay season. He clearly has ambition in mind to succeed on the red stuff. Many thought of him as being the 2nd best player on tour, however seeing Nadal against Ferrer last night has altered my view of that claim. Murray will need to hit the ground running in IW and for me must target winning the tournament. Djokovic has laid his claims and as has Nadal. Murray needs a win to kickstart his 2013 campaign. Let's hope the extra work he has put in really starts to pay off with victory at IW.

Rest of the field. Gasquet, Nishikori, Raonic, Cillic, Del Potro, Ferrer and Tsonga have posted tour victories since the AO and this good set them in good stead as we head into the back end of the HC season and onto the clay season. Can these guys make a dent in the 1000 series? I hope so. I see Tsonga, Raonic and Del Potro being the likely threats on the HC and Ferrer might do something on the Clay series. Either way I hope for good things to come.

Next week is when all the fun begins and lets hope for some cracking tennis

Surely the wind farm cant be responsible for the wind at IW?

lydian wrote:Surely the wind farm cant be responsible for the wind at IW?

No lydian it isn't responsible, they have giant wind turbines there because it is so windy and the land many years ago wasn't worth squat. Now with the boom of the Palm springs area they would never build that many wind turbines on the land makes more sense to put up resorts or condos. The wind farm is there because of the wind, not the other way around, maybe my terminology was what is wrong, it is an energy generating facility from wind. It is there because it is really windy there.

Red wrote:Anyway I'm gong to sleep now. If anyone sees Born Slippy to back up his/her comments of how Federer will be favourite against Rafa if Nadal comes back to his fully fit best.
Indoor hard excluded, that sounds like a really enjoyable and fun debate.

To be honest, i was more meaning best of 3. Best of 5 i probably would make Nadal favourite over both Fed and Murray because of his superior fitness (assuming he still has that). Best of 3 I would give Fed the narrow edge - crushed him easily last time and leads the overall bo3 hard court h2h (leaving out indoor matches really is manipulating the stats).

I don't agree Born Slippy, federer plays much better indoors, indoors are always a bit different than a regular hardcourt favoring the attacking player more. I wouldn't give fed an edge over Nadal in any outdoor hardcourt maybe with the exception of cincy. Whether it would 3 sets or 5 sets. Still not a good matchup for federer.

The draws at 11 I think, I'll stick up a thread some time tomorrow for the World Tour.

legendkillarV2 wrote:You have to say that if Ferrer ends up with Nadal in his half, draw fixing will come flying back into the spotlight.

I'd say more questions will be asked if Ferrer ends up with his own half

Nervous Fed fans?

Born Slippy wrote:

Red wrote:Anyway I'm gong to sleep now. If anyone sees Born Slippy to back up his/her comments of how Federer will be favourite against Rafa if Nadal comes back to his fully fit best.
Indoor hard excluded, that sounds like a really enjoyable and fun debate.

To be honest, i was more meaning best of 3. Best of 5 i probably would make Nadal favourite over both Fed and Murray because of his superior fitness (assuming he still has that). Best of 3 I would give Fed the narrow edge - crushed him easily last time and leads the overall bo3 hard court h2h (leaving out indoor matches really is manipulating the stats).

Leaving out indoor hard courts isn't manipulating the stats at all- because there's a massive difference between the match record outdoors, and their match record indoors.
Outdoors HC H2H: 4-2 Nadal
Indoors HC H2H: 4-0 Federer

So there's a massive difference, and we can't just ignore that. I think as a Nadal fan I say that on indoor hard Federer is favourite, and on outdoor hard Federer fans would say Nadal is favourite- and for a good reason too.

Based on current rankings (for RG 2013) a potential draw is...

Djokovic/Ferrer/Berdych/Tsonga/Gasquet - Upper RG half, (1,4,6,8,10)
+ Federer/Murray/Nadal/Del Potro/Tipsy - Lower RG half (2,3,5,7,9)

== Loads of Fun.

Another draw is...

Djokovic/Murray/Nadal/Del Potro/Gasquet - Upper RG half, (1,3,5,7,10)
+ Federer/Ferrer/Berdych/Tsonga/Tipsy - Lower RG half (2,4,6,8,9)

== Conspiracy theories.

Quarters if it goes to seeding at IW

Djokovic v Tsonga
Murray v del Potro
Ferrer v Berdych
Nadal v Federer

If Federer is to get to Nadal, he's got a possible rematch with Benny to get through first.