Amlin Cup Final

Team & Tactics - 0000hrs Sunday
Predictions - 2000 hrs Wednesday

Final preview - After a slightly disappointing finish to the domestic season for both Welsh and Saracens, as they both hoped to chase down the last remaining play off spot and Heineken cup rugby for next season. In the end both sides ended up on the same amount of points (52), indicating this clash could be as close as their final standings. With the chance for both sides to finish the season on a high and with some silverware, the game looks to be set up on a knife edge as the result could easily sway to eitherside.

Key men -

Ruan Pienaar (London Welsh) - The London Welsh maestro has kept his side ticking throughout the season, forming a formidable partnership with his fellow half-back Evans. With a finals depending on the accuracy and consistency of penalties and conversions, could it be Pienaar's boot that 'Ruans' Saracens last chance of a hurrah.

Conrad Smith (Saracens) - Smith has been a mainstay in the Saracens back line throughout the domestic and euorpean season, and his intelligent attacking and comitted defending has help Sarries achieve some big results in the season. However Smith will have to do it one more time to bring home some silverware for his side and guide his team mates through the final with his leadership in the backline.

London Welsh vs. Saracens
Location - RDS
Weather - Light Rain Showers, 13 degrees, 9 mph North Easterly
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wal)
Assistant referees: Leighton Hodges (Wal), Ian Davies (Wal)
TMO: Gareth Simmonds (Wal)

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London Welsh

Manager – Fluxy

01. Paul James	09. Ruan Pienaar (K)
02. David Paice	10. Nick Evans
03. David Wilson
04. George Kruis	11. Horacio Agulla
05. Paul O'Connell(C)	12. Brad Barritt
06. Tom Johnson	13. George Lowe
07. Hienrich Brussow	14. Adam Thompstone
08. Louis Picamoles	15. Maxime Medard

16. Rhys Gill 17. Frans Malherbe 18. Tom Lindsay 19. Steve Borthwick 20. Jackson Wray 21. Danny Care 22. Dominic Waldlouck 23. Topsy Ojo

Tactics

With London Welsh competing in their first European competition, the game plan shall be a simple plan much like the one implemented throughout the season. There is a mixture of youthful exuberance and experience throughtout the side, and this balance will produce a great performance.

Key Points

• We look to impose ourselves from the off and let the opposition know how we are going to play the game and how we want to dictate the pace of the game. Our brand of rugby is physical and fast, however we won't just run the ball at every opportunity.
  
  
• Play in the right areas of the paddock, and Evans knows when to attack and when we need to clear the lines. We will look to go through simple phases to reproduce quick ball to cut the defence open.
  
  
• Brilliant leaders all over the pitch in Picamoles, O'Connell, Pienaar and Evans, and they know what will be required to get we want from the game - a win. With the decent conditions, we will look to play a simple game in attack and in defence will look to force Saracens to play from in their 22 and use our strong lineout and kicking game to pressure them.
  

Set Pieces


• James and Wilson are solid technicians and will secure our own feed, to provide first phase possession for our backs. A big target for us here is to get under Kepu, and make them go backwards with constant pressure.
  
  
• With a strong lineout, POC will lead the lineout and use himself as banker ball at the front of the line with Kruis jumping in the middle. If winning own ball POC will look to call full number lineouts to tie in the Sarries forwards.
  
  Breakdown
  
  
• Our whole pack is mobile and capable of snaffling ball at the breakdown. We will look to offload in the tackle to keep moving the point of attack and tire out the big Sarries pack, this will keep Botha, McCaw, Easter and Kepu on the move.
  
  
• The Brussow Effect - Whenever Brussow has competed against McCaw, he has kept him quiet and overshadowed him at the breakdown. Brussow will look to wreak havoc at the breakdown and mark out McCaw as well.
  
  Attacking Play
  
  
• The backrow will target the halfbacks, which will lead to them rushing and making handling errors and mistakes. Big empahsis on running forwards down the Hodgson's and Allen's channel when there is slow ball. Look for Pickles to run down Hodgson's channel off scrums, and big carries down this channel in open play.
  
  
• Evans has some dangerous backs out side him, and will look to test the Sarries defence with some strong carrying of short pops off his shoulders.
  
  
• We will look to keep the ball alive, preventing them from setting any defensive lines. Evans will direct traffic with the use of quick pods systems outside the guards of the rucks, and target any of our forwards against their backs.
  
  
• Exploit the lack of pace of Goode at the by kicking the ball either side of him and when he isn't at home.
  
  Defence
  
  
• We will use a banana drift line in defence to cut down Hodgson's options and push him inside towards our back row.
  
  
• Target the carrying of Botha, Mako, Brown and Easter, same with every other opposition player. Get them to the floor as soon as possible and then get men legally over the ball. Making a contest of the tackle and breakdown area and causing isolations and penalties will allow us to kick for territory and the lineout.
  
  
• Key positions with experience in pressure situations. The kicking of Pienaar, Medard and Agulla can help alleviate the pressure on Nev in defence.
  
  
• Pienaar will use his box kicks to turn defence into attack, with wingers and forwards contesting the catch and getting behind the Sarries defence.
  
  Substitutions and other points
  
  
• Look to use our strong bench for impact later in the game. To get an advantage in the scrum, and collisions with big impact players.
  
  
• Pieaar will kick all points, he can kick from within their half, so this indicates that Saracens should be wary of giving away penalties. Look to keep the scoreboard ticking as the penalties mount up.
  
  
• The control of POC, Pickles and Nevanaar will guide the team through the final and to the big result.

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Saracens

Manager – ChequeredJersey

01. Mako Vunipola	09. Morgan Parra (k)
02. Rob Buchanan	10. Charlie Hodgson
03. Sekope Kepu
04. Donnacha Ryan	11. Tom Williams
05. Bakkies Botha	12. Anthony Allen
06. Kelly Brown	13. Conrad Smith
07. Richie McCaw (c.)	14. Leigh Halfpenny (lk)
08. Nick Easter	15. Alex Goode

16. Matt Mullen 17. Schalk Brits 18. Ben Tameifunia 19. Ollie Kohn 20. Will Fraser 21. Billy Vunipola 22. Ben Spencer 23. Vereniki Goneva

Tactics- with a bit of rain we will look to keep things tight and simple, and focus on competing at and winning at the breakdown, kicking game, lineout and scrum

Breakdown-

work as a unit, McCaw securing and slowing ball, Easter hitting rucks to clear them out and Brown helping both with Ryan and the others chipping in. Brown and Easter are also both great at the breakdown and McCaw is unparalleled with in-form Fraser on the bench as a pure 7. Don't overcommit unless the turnover is on (for either side), then flood the ruck with numbers.


Lineout

Without kickers we should have plenty of territory to play with so really attack the opposition lineout with Botha jumping at the front and Ryan as a mobile back pod. McCaw or Brown to put the 9 or 10 under immediate pressure off the top. On our throw, Ryan calls, keep it simple with 1st/ 2nd jumper receptions but mix up the 2nd jumper. Maul it to tire their pack and get the back-lifter (Mako) to cycle around for a pop off a mini-maul into the 5m channel in their 22 as a surprise attack.

Scrum

Go hard here with Buchanan and Kepu aiming to pop Paice up and Mako targeting Wilson with his bulk. Class replacements in tight and loose play in front row so don't worry about fatigue. Run 8 at the blindside occasionally to force their flankers to tackle not ruck.

Kicking

Class kickers at 9, 10, 14 and 15 so kick for territory and attack the resulting setpiece. Height on kicks to put them under pressure and don't be afraid to go for dropped goals, crossfield kicks or chips as our wings are canny. Take all points available, 1/2p if long. McCaw to chase all kicks. Also, Parra to be an annoying pest and get the ref on side with McCaw.

Attack

Keep slow ball tight in the pack in groups of 3 for support. Don't be afraid to box-kick or kick for territory if the ball isn't great either, or to set up mauls to sap their energy. Quicker ball either; sent to Hodgson who will stand deep or flat, depending on where we are; or to be taken on by Parra on the run; or taken on by McCaw or Easter acting as linkmen recycling straight to the the backs. McCaw and one of Easter/Brown to chase the ball to secure ruck-ball/support all runs. In backs, Hodgson look for space outwide to crossfield into, or simple pass to Allen running from deep with Smith and wings in support. Goode to be mostly defensive today. Blindside wingers looking for work off wing coming onto small pop. I want big forwards like Mako on Hodgson/Allen's inside shoulder for the pop and to target Nev's inside shoulder. Don't look to offload under pressure.

Defence

Blitz led by Smith, Brown leads fringes, Parra covers breaks and Buchanan chips. Goode stays on defence. McCaw gives Nev no space.

Bench

McCaw and Easter will tire will this game plan- replace them if needed, ditto front row. Kohn adds bulk. Goode to 10 if needed. Impact up front from Brits, Ben T and Billy V

Targets

If Nev is given no space his excellent all-round game falters dramatically. 7 and Parra to pester him and cut his space entirely and Mako etc to test his defence. Chop down POC and Pickles early in the tackle. When Lindsay comes on really target his throwing - by pressurising the front jumper make him throw long where he is very dodgy. When Care comes on, Parra mark him tightly on the quick tap

Anyone fancy doing the previews for this one as I'm in it?

With twp days to go until London Wlesh participate in their first Euorpean final, Director of rugby Fluxy has named his side ahead of the clash with fellow domestic league side Saracens. Flux stated that after having a week off with the Semi-finals of the Aviva Play-off taking place it has given it side extra time to prepare and heal for what will be a hotly contested battle. Flux has named a settled side with some youngster complementing the experience throughout his lineup. Young lads like George Kruis, George Lowe and Adam Thompstone in the starting XV and Jackson Wray, Tom Lindsay and Dom Waldlouck, for them this will be their first final. But Flux has stated he has faith in his players as they are young and hungry and hvae played in big games before so this should be no different to them.

London Welsh

Manager – Fluxy

01. Paul James	09. Ruan Pienaar (K)
02. David Paice	10. Nick Evans
03. David Wilson
04. George Kruis	11. Horacio Agulla
05. Paul O'Connell(C)	12. Brad Barritt
06. Tom Johnson	13. George Lowe
07. Hienrich Brussow	14. Adam Thompstone
08. Louis Picamoles	15. Maxime Medard

16. Rhys Gill 17. Frans Malherbe 18. Tom Lindsay 19. Steve Borthwick 20. Jackson Wray 21. Danny Care 22. Dominic Waldlouck 23. Topsy Ojo

Tactics

Saracens
Manager – ChequeredJersey

01. Mako Vunipola	09. Morgan Parra (k)
02. Rob Buchanan	10. Charlie Hodgson
03. Sekope Kepu
04. Donnacha Ryan	11. Tom Williams
05. Bakkies Botha	12. Anthony Allen
06. Kelly Brown	13. Conrad Smith
07. Richie McCaw (c.)	14. Leigh Halfpenny (lk)
08. Nick Easter	15. Alex Goode

16. Matt Mullen 17. Schalk Brits 18. Ben Tameifunia 19. Ollie Kohn 20. Will Fraser 21. Billy Vunipola 22. Ben Spencer 23. Vereniki Goneva

Tactics- with a bit of rain we will look to keep things tight and simple, and focus on competing at and winning at the breakdown, kicking game, lineout and scrum

Breakdown-

work as a unit, McCaw securing and slowing ball, Easter hitting rucks to clear them out and Brown helping both with Ryan and the others chipping in. Brown and Easter are also both great at the breakdown and McCaw is unparalleled with in-form Fraser on the bench as a pure 7. Don't overcommit unless the turnover is on (for either side), then flood the ruck with numbers.


Lineout

Without kickers we should have plenty of territory to play with so really attack the opposition lineout with Botha jumping at the front and Ryan as a mobile back pod. McCaw or Brown to put the 9 or 10 under immediate pressure off the top. On our throw, Ryan calls, keep it simple with 1st/ 2nd jumper receptions but mix up the 2nd jumper. Maul it to tire their pack and get the back-lifter (Mako) to cycle around for a pop off a mini-maul into the 5m channel in their 22 as a surprise attack.

Scrum

Go hard here with Buchanan and Kepu aiming to pop Paice up and Mako targeting Wilson with his bulk. Class replacements in tight and loose play in front row so don't worry about fatigue. Run 8 at the blindside occasionally to force their flankers to tackle not ruck.

Kicking

Class kickers at 9, 10, 14 and 15 so kick for territory and attack the resulting setpiece. Height on kicks to put them under pressure and don't be afraid to go for dropped goals, crossfield kicks or chips as our wings are canny. Take all points available, 1/2p if long. McCaw to chase all kicks. Also, Parra to be an annoying pest and get the ref on side with McCaw.

Attack

Keep slow ball tight in the pack in groups of 3 for support. Don't be afraid to box-kick or kick for territory if the ball isn't great either, or to set up mauls to sap their energy. Quicker ball either; sent to Hodgson who will stand deep or flat, depending on where we are; or to be taken on by Parra on the run; or taken on by McCaw or Easter acting as linkmen recycling straight to the the backs. McCaw and one of Easter/Brown to chase the ball to secure ruck-ball/support all runs. In backs, Hodgson look for space outwide to crossfield into, or simple pass to Allen running from deep with Smith and wings in support. Goode to be mostly defensive today. Blindside wingers looking for work off wing coming onto small pop. I want big forwards like Mako on Hodgson/Allen's inside shoulder for the pop and to target Nev's inside shoulder. Don't look to offload under pressure.

Defence

Blitz led by Smith, Brown leads fringes, Parra covers breaks and Buchanan chips. Goode stays on defence. McCaw gives Nev no space.

Bench

McCaw and Easter will tire will this game plan- replace them if needed, ditto front row. Kohn adds bulk. Goode to 10 if needed. Impact up front from Brits, Ben T and Billy V

Targets

If Nev is given no space his excellent all-round game falters dramatically. 7 and Parra to pester him and cut his space entirely and Mako etc to test his defence. Chop down POC and Pickles early in the tackle. When Lindsay comes on really target his throwing - by pressurising the front jumper make him throw long where he is very dodgy. When Care comes on, Parra mark him tightly on the quick tap

Openn...

London Welsh 17 Saracens 20

Both sides set out well with good plans of attack but more quality in Sarries side. See them home

Welsh 23-25 Saracens

FR - Two good units, a little more for Welsh in terms of from and they'll edge scrum with similar around the field
SR - Again 2 top units, just think Sarries have more class and physicality with better lineout options also
BR - Class acts, Sarries just edge
HB - 2 generals at 9 will dictate play, nothing in the 10's on this seasons form
CE - Smith gives Sarries an edge here with Lowe although v good not at his best this season
B3 - Not much in the units, Sarries perhaps lack a bit of gas but a good
Overall - A really good game and both teams tactics work for the sides. I just think Sarries have a little more and they'll sneak home.

Welsh 24-25 Sarries
SP: Close battle here, can't call it.
BK: Good from both, Sarries just edge this.
HB: Form-wise I'd go for Sarries but Welsh do have game-changers.
AT: Think Sarries may get a bit of a better go-forward but not much between the two.
BE: Like the call of 5-2 from Sarries, both teams have good impact.
TA: Welsh set out incredibly well here playing to their strengths and Sarries' weaknesses. Sarries do the same and feel that Parra could dictate Evans' downfall a bit here with McCaw the standout in the back-row. Great game congratulations to you both!

welsh 40- Sarries- 30

Welsh 26-33 Sarries
Sarries have a stronger front five IMO although there isnt a huge amount between the sets. Back rows is another toughie. Half backs due to form have to go to Sarries. The rest of the backs and Sarrie bench helps win the game.

wow, tactics got out of hand since I last predicted!

Welsh 18 - 14 Sarries
FR - Two solid props for Welsh, both in cracking form. Mako the standout in the loose, but in the scrum, Welsh will have real joy I think. Paice a solid thrower as well
SR - A bit more brutality in the Sarries second row helps them compensate for the loss in the front row, but Welsh might have more joy at the lineout, with more athleticism
BR - A wily unit from Sarries takes some beating, with great balance, with the exception of any great pace. The Welsh trio are much quicker to the ball and breakdown, but slightly outclassed
HB - Two great combos, with SH matched, but Evans better than Hodgson as he has a more varied game
CE - Barritt will have some joy against Allen, but Conrad will catch out Lowe
B3 - A touch more class from Welsh, with Halfpenny wasted on the wing

Welsh have some joy at the set piece, which is crucial. Pienaar and Evans will play them into the right areas and make the most of this. Sarries probably have more game breakers in the loose, but I think might struggle for possession, so Welsh edge it.

Yea not too sure what happened here, let it slip as its a final

Neither set of tactics exceeds the amounts laid out in the rules..., though technically the paragraphing needs to be different, the rules state it must not exceed 10 x2 lines plus 1x10 line paragraph, which is a lot more than either of us wrote.

TACTICS

Must not exceed:

1 x 10 line paragraph (on 606)
+
10 x 2 line max bullet points (on 606)

( I make mine 20 lines total, well within limits, plus headings)


Though feel free to cut it down if you want for next season, or penalise because we've both got too many line-breaks

I'll tweak for next season, don't want it getting out of hand (which it hasn't tbh)

It's a max of 10 line para (in one bulk)

then

max of 10 bullets at 2 lines each.

It's not an issue as I said earlier.

Just hope for a few more predo's.

CF any feedback on the 10 point loss predicted so I can know what to change? You've predicted me losses the last few weeks, some result-changing but I need feedback if I am going to improve

RESULT:

London Welsh 26-27 Saracens



Fantastic game, went right to the wire.

Congratulations to CJ on winning the Amlin Cup.

Thought I was set to lose that! Commiserations, Fluxy, great match and the way you've improved your side is a real credit to you

Well done for winning something in your first season mate

I'll be back next season!

You've had a great season Flux, massive turnaround at Welsh.