THE Open Championship 2013

First topic message reminder :

In response to PD's plea, here's my effort at a thread for this week's ET event, which just happens to be the most important event on that particular calendar, if not in the world of golf as a whole. I'll try to keep it factual, other than the 'ones to watch' at the end.

The 142nd Open Championship gets underway this week at Muirfield, just outside Edinburgh. Defending champion, in both respects, is Ernie Els, the big South African having followed up his playoff win at Muirfield in 2002 with last year's surprise victory at Lytham.

Els has quite a record in this event. He missed the cut on debut in 1989, but has played every year since 1992, recording 2 wins, 3 runner-up positions and a further 7 top tens. He's missed the cut just twice in that run, in 2010 when so many were caught out by the weather on the Friday at St. Andrews, and again in poor conditions at RSG the following year. In that context, his win last year is even more remarkable. Other notable stats for the Big Easy at the oldest major include twice recording 4 rounds in the 60s without winning, in 1993 and 2004 (brownie points on offer for naming the only other player to do this and the year), finishing under par most often since 1963 alongside two other huge names in the recent history of the Open (easy to guess who so I'd like the number of times too please), and he edges both of them on overall number of rounds under 70, 39 to their 37 and 33. Interestingly they both have more rounds under par than Ernie, which I suppose means when he's good he's very good. Testament to that would be his 29 on the front 9 in the second round at Muirfield in 2002, and his seven consecutive rounds under 70 in 1993-4.

Muirfield as a venue commands, it seems, a great deal of respect from the players even though the male only status of the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers as a club casts something of a shadow over an otherwise excellent location for this great championship. I have no intention of expressing an opinion on that particular issue, not least because this week has nothing to do with the membership of the club and everything to do with the best players in the world. At 7,192 yards it's no beast, and indeed may even be considered short these days, even though they've added some 158 yards this time around. That won't detract from the substantial test that it's bound to provide, the rough at least providing some defence even if the weather doesn't look like it's going to. It's not an in and out type links, rather the front 9 loops clockwise around the anti-clockwise homeward 9. Par is 71, with 3 par 5s (5,9,17) and 4 par 3 holes (4,7,13,16). The prevailing wind will help on 5 and 17, so look for those holes to be eagle opportunities, while 9 plays back into it and at over 550 yards will be out of reach for most if there's any kind of breeze. 2, 3 and 11 are par 4s under 400 yards and ought to offer birdie opportunities, especially since the wind is likely to be helping on those holes. With the exception of the 4th, the par 3s are all around 180-190 yards, so should be no more than a mid-iron for most of the field.  

Previous champions here have included some of the game's true greats - Els, Faldo of course, twice, as well as Nicklaus, Watson, Trevino, Player and Cotton. Nobody has won the Open here by default. Faldo's 18 pars to edge out Azinger in 1987 will be part of Open Championship folk lore for centuries, even though his finish here in 1992 was arguably more inspired following his mid-round stumble which let John Cook have a sniff of victory.

Perhaps important to note is that although we look back on those last 7 Muirfield winners as greats of the game, for some of them victory here was their first in the Open (2 names?) or indeed in a major championship of any sort (another 2?). As such, could this be the first of many Opens for a new great (Rory, Justin, Adam?)

Victory in Scotland this week for Phil Mickelson has to mean he should be considered as another great player with the potential to win at Muirfield, although the fairways there will surely look like tiny islands in a sea of rough in relation to the giant swathes of short grass that the contenders at Castle Stuart were faced with this past week. So who else could be lifting the claret jug next Sunday?

Rory McIlroy - the world no. 2 hasn't given anybody any reason to suspect he'll be able to turn his form so far this season around, and this isn't his favourite event on the calendar. If the weather remains as calm as forecast that may change, but there will surely be too many genuine contenders for Rory to sneak up on the rails and pinch this one?

Tiger Woods - we've not seen numero uno since his latest injury, to his left elbow, forced him to miss his own tournament at Congressional. He's apparently 'full go' for the Open, albeit recognising that staying out of the rough will be an even better idea than usual! The length, or lack of it, of the course means he can afford to leave the driver in the bag most of the time and still have scoring opportunities but as with Rory, there are too many other serious contenders to think that Woods might win here when he was only able to muster a T28 here last time, which included a very wet, windy and rough-strewn third round 81.  

Ernie Els - the defending champion has to be a very serious contender this week, his excellent Open record combining with some pretty good recent form including of course victory in Germany 3 weeks ago. With no wind to blow him off course as he wedges his belly putter into place, you have to think Els will be in the mix next Sunday.

Graeme McDowell - another recent winner, and the all or nothing man of 2013. To mix missed cuts and wins the way GMac has done of late suggests huge mental strength, something that Muirfield Open champions have in common.

Lee Westwood - as some of you may know I'm a big fan of Lee's, but I don't really know why. Ordinarily my pessimistic, cynical nature would predict a good start to the tournament for Lee only to whimper out of contention on Friday and Saturday to the point where he hasn't got a realistic chance of winning on Sunday. However, he took the decision to miss the French Open in order to be better rested for the Open, and I'm hoping that will pay off. He's straight enough to win, especially if his recently improved short game holds out, but whether he has the mental strength I mentioned above remains to be seen!

Justin Rose - mental strength can't be questioned following that tremendous finish at Merion, and he certainly has the game to win at Muirfield. He doesn't have a great record in the Open though, his famous 4th place as an amateur in 1998 at Birkdale comfortably his best finish. 12th in 2007 and 13th in 2009 are his best pro finishes. Given his exertions at Merion, I think victory here would be asking too much.

Adam Scott - Justin's big pal and the other major champion of 2013 so far should arguably be defending champion this week. I was at Lytham to witness his demise on the Sunday, and it was pretty clear as he played the 18th that he wasn't in a good place mentally. Much like Rory he bounced back from throwing away a major by winning one very soon after, but I just have a feeling that also like Rory the one that got away will take a bit longer to finally reel in. Rory will most likely win the Masters one day, just as Adam will probably win an Open, but I fear the memories will still be too fresh for the Aussie this week.

All in all then, GMac, Ernie or Lee. All are around 25/1. If you want an outside bet; Brooks Koepke will return you 5 times as much as those big names - he's had a phenomenal year on the Challenge tour, graduating to the main ET via 3 wins before July and he played pretty well at Castle Stuart this week.

With the weather promising to be very pleasant, the course is likely to be hard and running, with the rough therefore coming more into play. Muirfield will doubtless produce a fantastic tournament and another excellent golfer will be announced by Peter Dawson around 7pm next Sunday as 'winner of the gold medal and champion golfer for the year'.

come on Lee- BIG PUTT

Top bogey putt there. Can take a bit of confidence for the next hole

SmithersJones wrote:Wheels coming decidedly off, now missed a fairway with an iron by quite some way. You had to bring me into it, didn't you? If you'd just left it alone till he finished I'd have gladly swallowed all the humble pie in the world to see him post (as crossed my mind) 62 and set a new record for a low round in a major.

 I blame his turn entirey on you posting. Please return to wherever you were before.

Good putt to only drop the 1 shot on 14. Needs to pick at least one of those up before 17, or make 3 there I reckon.

I shall now retire until he finishes. Fingers crossed.

SmithersJones wrote:Good putt to only drop the 1 shot on 14. Needs to pick at least one of those up before 17, or make 3 there I reckon.

Why??

Par in would be great. -3 for 36 holes puts him in super position.

Smithers, he's just gone into a bunker. I suspect you're still somewhere on this forum.

John Cregan wrote:

SmithersJones wrote:Good putt to only drop the 1 shot on 14. Needs to pick at least one of those up before 17, or make 3 there I reckon.

Why??

Par in would be great. -3 for 36 holes puts him in super position.

This. Could easily be in the lead, as mysti says it's getting harder again as the day goes on.

3 under is not going to be far away. they may be one or two freak good scores - but I think 3 under well return a top 8 minimum

"Westwood misses by a whisker with that right-to-lefter and that's another shot gone - I'm so, so sorry...
1254:
Since I suggested aloud that Westwood might win this he's found the rough off the tee with an iron and made two bogeys - and here he is in a bunker on 15. Decent escape but he's got a 15-footer for par, as has playing partner Sergio Garcia, who's one under today."


BBC Sport (above) reporting a LW boger on 15. Leaderboard gives him a Par. Whats the story??

he hit the bunker in 1 John- the put was for birdie !!


basically he crushed his drive 380 and hit the bunker 60 yards short of the pin. The bunker shot was to 15 foot and he two putted for par- just missing his bird

another superb par putt for lee. Holding on really well

LW wont be reaching the 17th in two- hit the rough- But to be honest its a beast today.. Will have to play it as a 3 shotter. No dramas - the way this boy can putt

mystiroakey wrote:3 under is not going to be far away. they may be one or two freak good scores - but I think 3 under well return a top 8 minimum

Are we talking at the end of today or on Sunday? There's not a chance of 3 under being any worse than 4th.

today

Gmac may well be the best Northern Irish golfer   - but he needs to sort this out a bit!!

Then yeah, "8th minimum" is very very optimistic about afternoon scoring!

SmithersJones wrote:Westwood is now all over the shop. Sad, but that really has to be it for him and majors now, I fear.

Knowledgeable crowd

I am very happy to be slightly prudent in this estimation Ned !

Another par save putt from Lee. I haven't seen him putting this consistently well in a Major for a while.

4 clutch putts on the spin for westy.Slightly worrying that his long game has gone a bit- but this game is all about them clutch putts..

Where is kwini?

I would like to hear his thoughts on this thing so far.

maybe a bit early for him?

I don't know what to do for the best. Being stupidly pessimistic seemed to work, until someone pointed out how silly it looked. I tried to continue the anti-bock but to no avail, then tried not posting and he went in a bunker. At blue's request I then stayed away entirely only to see him bogey the last. I can only conclude, crazy as it may seem, that my comments have absolutely no bearing on how he plays.

Not bad, 68 and -2, but he'll feel he's let a few go. Be interesting to see how far back he is at the end of the day, and who he's paired with. Wouldn't be surprised if it's Woods.

Kwini is in transit isn't he, or possibly even back in Blighty already but presumably too busy to come on here?

Smithers- nothing we can do on here will affect him..

Well not any more!!! In the old days when he posted we could have affected him!

R&A do not put tiger and lee together!! even if the US networks try and bung you a few quid!

Mysti - I think that would be a fine idea! A terrific round from LW today, and Tiger held on pretty well, but certainly not an inspired effort. Tons of golf left and I hope the wind picks up over the weekend.

Lee plays better when he is top dog. I dont want them paired up

mystiroakey wrote:R&A do not put tiger and lee together!! even if the US networks try and bung you a few quid!

Stenson finished after LW and before TW, so that makes a TW/LW pairing impossible............i think!

Well if they go by who finished first rather than just making it up. Then it is still possible. It depends if there is an odd number or even number on 3 under and above

Could also depend on what the guys ahead do too John

1GrumpyGolfer wrote:Could also depend on what the guys ahead do too John

Apologies guys,

I had the order wrong in which Stenson LW & TW finished.

TW & LW finished directly before/after each other of the -2's so it is a 50/50 chance as to whether they play together or not in Round 3................

+6 should comfortably make it..............+7 in with a chance......

John Cregan wrote:+6 should comfortably make it..............+7 in with a chance......

To win or make the cut?

How could that putt by Zach Johnson not drop????  

AlciG wrote:How could that putt by Zach Johnson not drop???? :shock: 

physics

McLaren wrote:

John Cregan wrote:+6 should comfortably make it..............+7 in with a chance......

To win or make the cut?

Mc is on fire!!

will -2 lead after round 2?

John not quite a 50/50 shot!!

There is no one in the clubhouse better.. sorry for being pedantic.

I don't know what the odds are but if an odd number of players finish on -3 or better, then LW & TW will play together tomorrow. An even number will mean they won't as LW will play with Stenson.

mystiroakey wrote:John not quite a 50/50 shot!!

There is no one in the clubhouse better.. sorry for being pedantic.

Agreed!! Being a pedantic person, i understand!!

Tinmar wrote:I don't know what the odds are but if an odd number of players finish on -3 or better, then LW & TW will play together tomorrow. An even number will mean they won't as LW will play with Stenson.

Bang on Tinmar.............

Not worry about lee or tiger Miguel angel hopefully in last group. Hopefully with Cabrera. They can smoke as they play.

I've never seen a major so sparsely attended...

That was one brutal afternoon !!! I love major golf!

The groupings for tomorrow are class!!! Harrington and Garcia....and about every pairing from 1:35!

Poulter and Bubba a nice pairing as well. I wonder who will drive who nuts first!

feik it - It is a tiger LW 3rd round!

oh well he is well placed, just a shame about the pairing.

Surely playing Woods won't put Westwood off....or do you mean the crowd?

westy never plays well with woods or big players.