Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

First topic message reminder :

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

Oh dear, perennial disappointment Gasquet has had his backside handed to him tonight. Djokovic to Gasquet is a more extreme version of Nadal to Federer.

"Djokovic has won 12 straight sets from Gasquet, losing two or fewer games in over half of them."

Very good display from Novak but, as Danny says, Gasquet did everything wrong.

I'm looking forward to the first Novak v Rafa HC match since AO2012!

Or Lindstedt/Nestor. This is the 24th-consecutive year Nestor has played the Rogers Cup doubles.

The Special Juan wrote:"Djokovic has won 12 straight sets from Gasquet, losing two or fewer games in over half of them."

Hilarious.

BTW, SJ, Cincy draw is out so you may as well start the 606v2 World Tour thread for that one.

The Special Juan wrote:Oh dear, perennial disappointment Gasquet has had his backside handed to him tonight.  Djokovic to Gasquet is a more extreme version of Nadal to Federer.

"Djokovic has won 12 straight sets from Gasquet, losing two or fewer games in over half of them."

Clearly another good day at the office for Djoko, but not sure just how much of a parallel there is to to be made there TSJ, in terms of Djokovic/Gasquet and Nadal/Federer.........  

When you say "a more extreme version" ........ that's about as extreme a comparison as you could get !   It's true that over their careers Rafa has beaten Fed several times in straights (although interestingly, 2013 was only the first year in which he has ever managed to do this twice in a row), but Fed has done the same to Rafa on a number of occasions. (and Fed can at least take some comfort that he leads the h2h bagel tally by 2:1 !!)

In stark contrast, Reeshard has taken just four sets off Djoko in their nine meetings to date (and only five sets off Fed in 12 meetings .........)

lags72 wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:Oh dear, perennial disappointment Gasquet has had his backside handed to him tonight.  Djokovic to Gasquet is a more extreme version of Nadal to Federer.

"Djokovic has won 12 straight sets from Gasquet, losing two or fewer games in over half of them."

Clearly another good day at the office for Djoko, but not sure just how much of a parallel there is to to be made there TSJ, in terms of Djokovic/Gasquet and Nadal/Federer.........  

When you say "a more extreme version" ........ that's about as extreme a comparison as you could get !   It's true that over their careers Rafa has beaten Fed several times in straights (although interestingly, 2013 was only the first year in which he has ever managed to do this twice in a row), but Fed has done the same to Rafa on a number of occasions. (and Fed can at least take some comfort that he leads the h2h bagel tally by 2:1 !!)

In stark contrast, Reeshard has taken just four sets off Djoko in their nine meetings to date (and only five sets off Fed in 12 meetings .........)

Maybe I was a bit hasty and in all honesty it took me a while to remember when I made the comparison but I got there in the end.

I was meaning that like Federer and Nadal, Djokovic and Gasquet have very different styles but one is just a very bad match-up for the either. We all know that Federer/Nadal isn't a good match-up for Federer but because he's such a great player, he can beat Nadal. However, Djokovic is just such a bad match-up for Gasquet that there really is little hope for Gasquet every time he steps on court v Djokovic. I'm not sure if they've played on grass though and maybe the matches would be closer there but on hard courts and clay it's bad.

I should also add that of course the gap between Federer and Nadal is a lot smaller than Djokovic and Gasquet, but Djokovic is making a top 10 player look pretty silly most of the time. There are other examples of one player being a bad match-up for another which I could have used (Federer v Ferrer, Berdych v Djokovic etc, I just thought the Gasquet/Djokovic match-up was comparable to Federer/Nadal).

Hopefully that's cleared up what I meant...

Yes, it has indeed clarified things TSJ, and I'm 100% with you on the revamped analysis !

Can only agree how disappointing it is when a player of Gasquet's experience AND in his prime years can seemingly offer so little resistance in so many of his defeats. However I wonder whether on THIS occasion we should perhaps cut him a little slack, given that he seems to have run into a red-hot Djokovic who described his own performance as

"As close to perfection as you can be. In every part of my game I did almost my best."

Sometimes - on those days when your opponent is absolutely on fire - I guess there really isn't a lot you can do, even if you're a top tenner.

Next up a somewhat tougher proposition for the dancing Novak .........

Yes, the match up does strongly favour Novak and he's a much better player than Gasquet of course. But Gasquet's approach was bizarre to say the least.

He sat 3 metres behind the baseline giving Novak loopy balls to hit wherever he chose. Most of those were short and Novak could pick his spot. If after the first set Gasquet had just gone for it, planted himself on the baseline and took the ball on the rise - which he's very capable of doing, particularly on the backhand - but lost because of errors, I would have thought fair play.

But he did exactly the same thing. No slice, no variety, no change of approach. His tactics were that bad that Novak would have won playing poorly.

Compare it to Wawrinka's approach in Melbourne this year. He stayed on the baseline as often as he could, took the ball on the rise, tried to move Novak around, being aggressive. Is Gasquet capable of that? Yes of course he is.

Trying everything and losing is one thing, but the approach Gasquet implemented yesterday was never going to work and never will work. He's not a good enough athlete to beat Novak 3 metres behind the baseline, even if Novak had a poor day.

I get that he probably didn't believe he could beat Novak... But his tactics set up a hammering. It is the tactics Novak would like all his opponents to implement.

As for tonight's match, make no mistake... This matters.

Players treat these tournaments as a build up to the slams, there's no getting away from that. But when the top guys meet, whether it be in a masters semi final, an exhibition match or in someone's back garden... It always matters.

Both of them have looked mightily impressive, but I think Novak will beat Rafa in 2 fairly close sets.

35 matches played, 16 of them finals. 20-15 in the h2h. 8-8 in finals

They've contested every slam final.

Nadal is the player with most wins over Djokovic.

Djokovic is the player with most wins over Nadal.

That's a proper rivalry. Tonight's match matters.

What a shame this match is a semi. I wonder if it will matter as much if Nadal wins? I reckon if Djokovic wins he will be seen as the favorite for the US Open. I also reckon that if Rafa wins Djokovic will still be seen as the favorite for the US Open.

hawkeye wrote:What a shame this match is a semi. I wonder if it will matter as much if Nadal wins? I reckon if Djokovic wins he will be seen as the favorite for the US Open. I also reckon that if Rafa wins Djokovic will still be seen as the favorite for the US Open.

You're right, Novak will be favourite no matter what the result. But then he has lost one hard court slam match in the last 5 hard cout slams. That's a 34-1 record.

A lot of people think Rafa isn't quite the same threat off the clay nowadays, and a win over Novak will show he's a genuine threat to him in New York. So it's not as if he has nothing to gain tonight. A win over Novak would be a huge boost.

Nadal isn't the player he was off of clay a few years ago and Djokovic is one of the best hard court players in the history of the game. On paper, it looks like it's heading one way, especially when we take the H2H of the past couple of years into account. Only a fool would write Nadal off completely, but I can't think of too many reasons why he'll win today. In fact, I can only think of one, albeit a good one: he's Nadal, he's great. For me, Djokovic in straight sets, something like 6-4 6-4/6-3 6-3 depending on who serves first.

The match could be significant toward Rafa's chances of YE#1.

Assuming whoever wins tonight then wins the tournament overall, the points race will be:

Rafa wins - 1420 pt lead
Rafa loses - 140 pt lead

I'd strongly fancy Novak to overhaul a 140 pt lead over this stretch of the season. A 1420 pt lead is a tougher proposition.

I agree Murdoch this match could end up deciding the year end #1, that is assuming that Rafa can put together a full hardcourt and indoor hardcourt stretch at the end of the season, which he has not done it in number of years. No question this is a big match and frankly Novak needs to hold serve on hardcourt more than Nadal has to win.

After the frustration of RG, I also think it's important for Novak to get a win over Rafa early in the  HC swing.

I agree with Socal, a loss would matter more to Novak than Rafa.

As a follow up to TSJ and Lags' chat about the Djoko-Gasquet match up, some interesting comments here from Gasquet's press conference:

Q.  Yesterday you showed that you had a fighting spirit turning the match around.  How about today?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Today it was Djokovic.  Nishikori is a good player.  Djokovic is No. 1 in the world.  The score might have been a little bit better if I had been able to serve better, but he is incredible.  He is the player who impressed me most since I've been playing tennis.  He plays extremely fast.

Q.  And what about Federer or Nadal, they don't seem to give you as much trouble?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Yes, indeed.  They give me fewer problems.  He's a lot stronger than I am on both sides, and he hits the ball very flat.  My backhand doesn't give him trouble at all, and it's a weapon I need and often use against other players.  He also serves very well.
As far as my serve was concerned, today I didn't have very much of a reference to serve well.  In fact, it was a catastrophe.

Q.  But you had a plan with your coach?
RICHARD GASQUET:  The plan was to hold the line.  I believe it didn't work very well today (smiling).

Q.  During the past six matches you played against him, you didn't win a single set.  Is there a sort of block against him for you?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Yes, I believe so.  His game bothers me a lot more than the game of the other three top players.  He's the most difficult player to play for me.
He has an extremely fast backhand and very good returns.  For me, he's the strongest player.  Could have improved the score a little bit, but it all went so fast.

Measured purely in terms of the 7 titles he has picked up post-layoff, this has actually been one of Rafa's very best years (although not necessarily points-wise) on tour since turning pro. But of course all but one of those titles came on clay and any successes in the post-Wimbledon part of previous seasons have been few & far between.

2010 was of course a very notable exception, so it will be interesting to see just what he can produce over the remainder of 2013, and indeed the start of 2014.  

Yep, interesting reflections there from Gasquet on his loss to Novak HMM.

Don't suppose any fellow Murray fans have seen the Cinci draw, have they?  *laughs uproariously*

HM Murdoch wrote:As a follow up to TSJ and Lags' chat about the Djoko-Gasquet match up, some interesting comments here from Gasquet's press conference:

Q.  Yesterday you showed that you had a fighting spirit turning the match around.  How about today?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Today it was Djokovic.  Nishikori is a good player.  Djokovic is No. 1 in the world.  The score might have been a little bit better if I had been able to serve better, but he is incredible.  He is the player who impressed me most since I've been playing tennis.  He plays extremely fast.

Q.  And what about Federer or Nadal, they don't seem to give you as much trouble?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Yes, indeed.  They give me fewer problems.  He's a lot stronger than I am on both sides, and he hits the ball very flat.  My backhand doesn't give him trouble at all, and it's a weapon I need and often use against other players.  He also serves very well.
As far as my serve was concerned, today I didn't have very much of a reference to serve well.  In fact, it was a catastrophe.

Q.  But you had a plan with your coach?
RICHARD GASQUET:  The plan was to hold the line.  I believe it didn't work very well today (smiling).

Q.  During the past six matches you played against him, you didn't win a single set.  Is there a sort of block against him for you?
RICHARD GASQUET:  Yes, I believe so.  His game bothers me a lot more than the game of the other three top players.  He's the most difficult player to play for me.
He has an extremely fast backhand and very good returns.  For me, he's the strongest player.  Could have improved the score a little bit, but it all went so fast.

As a follow up on this good quote is that as a fan of both players, I would say Gazza is always among the top guys for me to want to watch and root for, I have always noticed how hopeless Gazza is in his match ups against Novak. Tennis is a game of matchups and Novak seems to really hold it over Gasquet. Richard is very honest and correct in his assessment he just doesn't have very much to hurt Djokovic with and on top of that Novak hits the ball earlier, harder, deeper, and flatter.

Ouch, a very poor showing from Team Flurray tonight so far albeit against a proper doubles pairing instead of a really average pair (the number 5 seeds), a geriatric and a part-time pairing.

Murray's called for a MTO to have his back worked on...

First set to Team Flurray!! 6-3

I take it they must have turned things around since your initial posts TSJ, as I see that they've won the first set now.

Yep, a complete 180. They're up a double break in the 2nd now.

And it's a bagel. Whatever they did to Murray's back must have worked!

Bagelled.... Incredible. Fleming needs less Marray and more Murray it appears!! Whoever Murray's masseuse is needs a raise too, although I wonder what happened to Lindstedt/Nestor to make them collapse like that. Peya/Soares up next for Flurray.

Its so good to see the real Nadal back in action - he's striking the ball so well at the moment. Djokovic started off in erratic fashion but has settled & its a good contest thus far... (4-2 Nadal)

Djoko has been erratic all match. Nadal has looked pretty good.
Finally djoko strings some good points together and breaks back for 3-5.

@LS... you recall the first set of Djokovic v Istomin.

In this match (Nadal v Djokovic) BPs 1/5 in first set, while Nadal is 2/2. just a couple of bad points in second set, and Djokovic will be toast.

I can see nadal winning this in 2 LF. Just errors galore from novak.

Now Nadal's level has dropped off whilst Novak has elevated his game a little (though he's still not playing 'great'). Too many fluctuations! Oh well, final set it is...

Sorry but the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry is still the most intriguing and fiesty contest on the ATP tour. Both guys are really going for it in the third! (I'm sure Djokovic isn't "that" upset Nadal aimed a ball at his head  )

This reminds me of their miami '11 encounter.
Nadal better in the first, djoko in the 2nd, pretty even in the 3rd so far.

Nadal on the brink

Superb win for Nadal, very impressive.

On the balance I think its a deserved win for Nadal. The matches between these two really are so close every time - just fine margins here and there. Somewhat error-strewn at times but still a fine match overall.

Thank God Nadal won.  

Another match against a main rival, another match Novak underperforms in.

After serving beautifully all week, he chucks in 7 double faults when it really matters.

In 2011, Novak's match record v Rafa and Andy was 8-1.

Since 2011, his record is 7-8.

Where does this leave us now? I now have no doubt in my mind that Rafa is the world's best player. I'd also say that Novak is now third favourite for New York behind Rafa and Andy. His hard court record is excellent but his record against his rivals is not good enough to be favourite.

Well done Nadal  Obviously Uncle Toni was right to be upbeat in the wake of the Wimbledon defeat! He has been the player of the year by some margin.

Very disappointing that Djokovic is just not finding that 'steel' in the moments when it really matters.

Wow! What a great match. High quality from both players. Very impressed with the super aggressive game Rafa is using on hard courts it made for some spectacular rally's.

HM Murdoch wrote:Another match against a main rival, another match Novak underperforms in.

After serving beautifully all week, he chucks in 7 double faults when it really matters.

In 2011, Novak's match record v Rafa and Andy was 8-1.

Since 2011, his record is 7-8.

Where does this leave us now? I now have no doubt in my mind that Rafa is the world's best player. I'd also say that Novak is now third favourite for New York behind Rafa and Andy. His hard court record is excellent but his record against his rivals is not good enough to be favourite.

Did you watch or just look at the stats? Djokovic played great putting in one of his best performances as he tends to do against both Nadal and Federer. Win or lose he would have had no need to put on a variety act afterwards to ensure the crowd had been entertained.

I'm not sure why you are blending Rafa's H2H with Murray's as it disguises that Djokovic had a positive H2H with Murray in 2011 and has a positive H2H since then. It was 2-1 in 2011 with Murray's win due to a retirement by Djokovic and is 5-4 since. Everyone knows about Nadal's H2H against Djokovic in 2011 but since then it is now 5-2. Djokovic's biggest problem is Nadal not Murray.

I wonder if Nadal will now pull out of Cincy? If he does so I'm sure there will be more than a few sighs of relief...

I include Andy because he, as well as Rafa, is Novak's main rival.

I disagree on Novak's performance. Some good tennis in the middle can't hide the fact that he started badly in the first set and went out with a whimper in the tie break.

Both Rafa and Andy look much more composed than him in their recent matches. And that's the root problem of Novak failing to truly capitalise on an amazing 2011.

I can't comment as I never saw the match but it would seem it was a continuation of that missing ingredient in key matches for Novak. When the going got tough last year and 2011 Novak got going but this season he has wilted in the heat of the moment for some reason. He needs to re-find that ingredient. Credit to Rafa though and great to see he is in the shape to be right in the mix on hard courts - it adds extra spice to the up coming US Open and if he can rediscover the winning formula on a non-clay slam then it could rekindle his chances challenging Federer's slam total.

HM Murdoch. I wouldn't be discouraged by Djokovics's loss. If he can produce tennis like that he will be tough to beat.

I like Djokovic but sometimes find his tennis a little flat and mechanic. But Nadal forced him to play outside his comfort zone (as Djokovic did to Nadal) and IMO this resulted in some spectacular tennis. I'm not alone in thinking this

But Rafa's 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (2) victory was still a titanic struggle. So much so that, from a ball-striking perspective, this one ranks near the top of the list of the best matches these two have played, and that’s saying something.

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/08/montreal-nadal-d-djokovic/48709/#.UgdMoW0kyAU

Anyone who hasn't watched I can recommend it. Your in for a treat!

Just watched it. Terrific match, both played well in patches and Rafa put himself right in the US open conversation. He maybe looked as good as he ever has on a hard court. Good to see a bit of needle between them too, when Nadal hit the ball into Novak's face returning a drop shot. Novak not impressed, but the intensity levels went up from that point onwards.

I would still edge it to Novak if they met in New York, but Rafa is now right amongst it in terms of taking the final slam of the season. Assuming that the top 3 go far in New York, the title could depend on which half Rafa falls in.

Rafa will probably have to beat 2 great players to win it, so my favourite will be the person who only has to beat 1.

hawkeye wrote:
Did you watch or just look at the stats? Djokovic played great putting in one of his best performances as he tends to do against both Nadal and Federer. Win or lose he would have had no need to put on a variety act afterwards to ensure the crowd had been entertained.

You are deluded if you think Djoko put in a great performance, but I expected it from you to big up nadal again.
Nadal played a huge part in that by not giving him any rhythm, time and was really outpowering him at times.
The crowd was actually pulling for novak, a very rare thing indeed.

Danny_1982 wrote:Just watched it. Terrific match, both played well in patches and Rafa put himself right in the US open conversation. He maybe looked as good as he ever has on a hard court. Good to see a bit of needle between them too, when Nadal hit the ball into Novak's face returning a drop shot. Novak not impressed, but the intensity levels went up from that point onwards.

I would still edge it to Novak if they met in New York, but Rafa is now right amongst it in terms of taking the final slam of the season. Assuming that the top 3 go far in New York, the title could depend on which half Rafa falls in.

Rafa will probably have to beat 2 great players to win it, so my favourite will be the person who only has to beat 1.

I think anyone with half an eye could see that was unintentional by Rafa and nobody could have looked more devastated by his own actions if he had tried. He apologised at the time to Nole acknowledged his mistake to the umpire and crowd and then again at the net when they had finished the match. Djokovic took it in good part realising that it was an accident it wasn´t intended to be "needle" and I feel sure that Novak knew that.

Haddie - there's no need to defend Rafa, he did nothing wrong. Going straight at someone is a high percentage shot at the net as they've no time to react. Novak looked annoyed at the the time but they were all smiles afterwards.

These are big boys, they can handle a tennis ball in the neck.