Lax All Black Pack Cracks But Shag Backs Dagg To Drag Match Back.

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Wow. Just wow. South Africa look to be in awesome form.

Granted Australian rugby is in its most miserable state for fifty years, but there is no disguising how intimidating  this Springbok side is.

The Boks have now married their power game with a rapier precision in the Back line and the experience to know when to switch modes. Add Morne Steyn's siege boot and back in form long range goal kicking and you have a serious unit that will be tough to beat. 

Normally poor tourists, South Africa easily outmuscled a fragile looking Australia and clinched a convincing win at the bastion of Australian resistance, the parochial Suncorp stadium.

In this kind of form I can see South Africa ending new Zealand's long run of success at Eden Park. Especially with captain Richie out injured and Dan Carter out of form.

Hats off to Heyneke Meyer. I was a detractor and I put my hand up and say I was wrong.

Most impressive is south Africa's command at the breakdown. Defensively they must have the best turn over rate in the rugby championship and on attack they can maintain pressure through numerous phases and patiently wait their chance to pounce.  Just awesome stuff.

True, NZ are more used to the conditions and weather than we are, but heavy rain is always a leveller.

Just look at OZ vs Scotland a few years ago.

Score was 6-3.

fa

You didnt see them last week in the rain then?

Lets just hope we get a referee with some empathy for the conditions who can spot cynical fouls in open play and punish them accordingly.

GE: Roman Poite is our Northern Hemisphere referee this week.

Oh Poopie, he loves us.


NOT.

aucklandlaurie wrote: fa

 You didnt see them last week in the rain then?

na didn't catch the NZ match as I was on my way to watching the boks. They didn't perform?

fa, we didnt play to the conditions, a lot of reckless regard for the ball, put it this way if we do the same against you guys on Saturday night we will come second.

The ABs said the wet weather experience after training all week for a fast open game gave them a wake up and they worked hard at changing the gameplan at short notice. They thought it was valuable experience and see it as an advantage over the boks as they wont have played in the conditions yet.

It does help negate the ABs fast plays so thats gotta be a plus for the boks alone.

How we already know the game will be wet Saturday night on Tuesday I dont know...the last two  were definitely going to be dry as it didnt rain all week- until kickoff... surreal...

Perhaps the fact that you were playing Argentina had something to do with it. Minds on bok game the week after... and the argies love a scrap too.

No doubt NZ will be fully concentrating on this next game. When was the last time NZ played 2 poor games in a row (to their own standards obviously)???

aucklandlaurie wrote:
GE: Roman Poite is our Northern Hemisphere referee this week.

Oh FFS. 

Another 80 minutes of scrum resets and penalties dished out for everything, replete with 5 minute advantage periods. Yet strangely allowing a free for all at every ruck, unless its within 5 meters of the try line in which case its an automatic penalty to the defence.

We need to do away with this "neutral" ref idea and just get the best refs. If prefer NZ v SA reffed by Craig Joubert than that French idiot.

Either that or Australia need to train a referee.

Actually on that count we are luckier than SA, as the boks never get to play a game with Craig Joubert as ref.

fa there were some very good facets to the AB game last week so I wouldnt be fooled by that. When rain of that strength hits all of a sudden and the side has to deconstruct the entire weeks training, moves, mindset in seconds isnt easy. Being able to do it in some respects is what DC meant about it being an advantage.

Too right theyll be focussing on this match- big time. no ambush, end of season, hong kong scenario this one and we have to go back to 2011 3N decider since we lost one that meant as much as this week.

GloriousEmpire wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:
GE: Roman Poite is our Northern Hemisphere referee this week.

Oh FFS. 

Another 80 minutes of scrum resets and penalties dished out for everything, replete with 5 minute advantage periods. Yet strangely allowing a free for all at every ruck, unless its within 5 meters of the try line in which case its an automatic penalty to the defence.

We need to do away with this "neutral" ref idea and just get the best refs. If prefer NZ v SA reffed by Craig Joubert than that French idiot.

Either that or Australia need to train a referee.

We trained up walshy for them, will he do?

man does bob skinstead ever age? on reunion looks as young as when he first played...

Team NZ destroy Oracle in race 5 with a 1 minute margin and oracle racing refuse to go out for race six. Calling a tactical move to rebuild their confidence.

Chicken noise. Chicken noise.

Chicken poop alright and a bit underhand using a 'gear break' clause to buy time, typical Coutts.

If SA win, would they leap frog the ABs on the IRB rankings?

I reckon SA looked really strong. It's not that they are big, it's that they are fast - I reckon as a team they are faster than they have ever been.
Not sure who will benefit from rain more - I would guess NZ to be honest - don't remember seeing too many wet games in SA.

Dunno guys I reckon it's 50/50

I know us kiwis are nervous about this game this weekend, but not as nervous as the Aussies theyve gone and dropped Genia...

Well, I must have watched the last 3 matches of both sides at least 2-3 times each now and I know I'm going to change my mind match time but at this moment I think the Boks are going to win this.

This side is ticking boxes it hasnt been ticking for years- and I'm not even sure it was ticking them back in 2010 and 2007.

It has all the usual Bok attributes- big forwards, solid set pieces, good goalkicker etc.

But this side has a lot more-

Momentum- theyve won 10 on the trot now
Endurance- theyre staying till the end, and finishing the match better than the opposition
Expansive backplay- the last few maches has for me produced the slickest back play I've seen from the Boks in years. Passes are now beating the man (Le Roux's timing to get the ball away quicker to Kirsten than you'd expect was sharp) and the home match versus the Argies produced several where the timing of the running onto the ball made the difference between easy and a tussle- something the AB's do well.

Confidence- theyre not shouting, not full of ego, not playing up to the opposition. They carry themselves with the look of champions, JDV's airport interview had all the hallmarks of what lies beneath this side.

They make mistakes like anyone, but simply, right now they look the best all round side of the two.

This makes Morne even more the key and thats where I think the nails going to come from. This side is giving him confidence.

Sorry Kiwi's- just my opinion at the mo based on an eyes wide open assessment...waiting for it to change...any day now...

Wow, Taylorman shows some total respect for the Springboks for once.

But you are reading too much into it Taylorman. We are showing improvement, but have not yet shown consistency.

It is still a case of the All Blacks having to lose this one, rather that the Springboks will win it.

Carter made a comment that this Bok team is a threat. In the past they were able to outthink their tactics. This team is building on the variety you were asking for BB and it's making NZ sit up and notice. NZ responded well to SA's mauling of Oz at home and shut down their confidence in the following game.

This week the SA team is much stronger and NZ have some injuries. But we're playing at our fortress. Didn't work for Oz but it's fair to say Oz is not working. Much like last year NZ hasn't put in a totally convincing performance yet. Now the threat is there like playing away I expect NZ to bring their performance up a level from where they've been so far. Will SA be able to raise theirs because both sides won't be happy with certain aspects of their game. SA has been more convincing overall but far from perfect.

NZ have looked a bit toothless to me this year so far. Ben Smith's sublime form has been flattering an attack that otherwise looks off the pace. Ball control has been patchy. Decision making has been erratic. The breakdown has been loose. The scrum shakey. And the goal kicking has been poor. The All Blacks are not giving me that feeling of confidence, that they are in control. The ball is being pushed with a feeling of hopefulness and options are sometimes over ambitious.

I too think NZ will get a hurry up from the Boks. But I think it's timely. NZ and SA have a proud history of providing the mutual
Ambition to improve by battling it out at the absolute zenith of the game like cyclists sharing the load of riding into the wind while the rest of the pack chases, and I sense a change of guard in the sharp edge of the wind. 

With Kev, Andrew Hore and woodcock (our only World Cup final try scorer ) set to retire the front row needs rebuilding, timely, to meet the new law interpretation. The back row rebalancing and the midfield suring up.  SA are two years further down this road and this is where they will have the edge. 

Also I'm sorry but DC is just off the pace and not the player he was. He no longer suits the All Blacks game as they push for yet more pace. Cruden is now #1 and this must be recognised. 

We lose something in goal kicking with Cruden though who is erratic. 

South Africa will win and it will be constructed around bombarding Savea with high and turning kicks, pilfering intercepts from the long passing attempting to flank the rush and through scrum penalties dished out by Poite.  A simple, familiar but inevitable plan. But SA have now shown they can counter attack with precision when an opposition team is chasing the game.

I wrote 50/50 because I was so out of tune compared to everyone else.

I agree with Taylorman. The ABs are stuttering and have been for a little while. We've been winning against teams out of shape and then struggling with teams that bring it on.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
I know us kiwis are nervous about this game this weekend, but not as nervous as the Aussies theyve gone and dropped Genia...

Splutter, cough, what????

Just saw that the springboks camp has the flu this week.  Possibly this might ride to NZs aid.

Hmmm, Suzy virus?  

On a serious note, you do realise that NZ has kicked more in the tournament thus far than South Africa?

Bombs are just one method for us to gain territory.

SA this year so far.

VS Argentina at home 26
Vs Italy at home 28
VS Samoa at home 23
VS Australia away 29
VS Scotland at home 23
VS Argentina away 26

Average kicks per game this year, 25.8

NZ so far this year.
VS France at home 44
VS Australia away 26
VS France at home 34
VS Argentina at home 23
VS France at home 17
Vs Australia at home 30

Average kicks per match 29.

Teams use kicks in different ways, we use the kick and chase, Willie le roux uses the grubber and chip kick into space, we use line kicks out of our 22, something not all teams do, Australia for example this year have chosen to run our of their 22, so their kicking has reduced dramatically and their success have reduced drastically as well as they failed to be successful at running out of their 22.

At the end of the day, the question is whether your tactical kicking is effective. To not kick at certain stages is suicide, just look at the number of turn over tries Australia have conceded this year because they run out of their 22 and do not have a proper exit strategy out of their 22.

They want to "entertain" their spectators, they only succeeded so far in entertaining the NZ and SA supporters.

There are times when the kick into space is the right decision, sometimes the up and under is the right decision and other times the cross kick is the right decision, as long as they are being executed correctly.

Cruden, used the kick into space for his outside players to chase very successfully.

So what is the difference in kicking into space and box kicking, at the end of the day teams use these two tactical kicks in more or lesser amounts, but at the end of the day it is a 50/50 ball, one to force errors, and the other opportunistic.

Same difference.

This insistence of saying SA have a kick and chase philosophy is nonsense, I might as well say NZ have a kick into space and chase philosophy, neither will be correct.

Sa charges with their forward, but too very little pick and drives, NZ charges with their forwards and do more pick and drives, Australia does the most pick and drives. Perhaps the reason for their forwards struggling to gain front foot ball as they don't have enough momentum when they hit the line.

Australia goes wide all the time, side to side gaining no ground.

SA goes side to side less than NZ, but use the side to side with the last man doing the inside pass or the inside line with the full back running either in or out.

NZ attacks and tries to offload in the tackle more than any other team, trying to avoid the rucks and maintain momentum to keep the defences unorganised.

They have the skill to do that, we have the pace to go wide more than the skill to do inside offloads in the tackle.

Each team plays to their strengths, or what they perceive as their strengths (foolishly so at times).

At the end of the day, labelling a team for one aspect of their game is total foolishness.

I didnt say anything about it BT. Are you getting paranoid over there?

GE wrote:South Africa will win and it will be constructed around bombarding Savea with high and turning kicks

It isn't just you GE, I read this on every rugby forum, and getting a tad tired of it.

In the press conferences last week, Steve Hansen remarked that he felt that the ABs should have kicked more.

Biltong wrote:

GE wrote:South Africa will win and it will be constructed around bombarding Savea with high and turning kicks

It isn't just you GE, I read this on every rugby forum, and getting a tad tired of it.

It looks to me that SA are the leading try scorers this year by some distance and the Backline seems to be running better than it has for a while. Steyn seems to be playing with more freedom and I think it's been widely commented on, there's a whole article on it in today's NZ herald. 

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=11122553


Relax BT, I think the world are currently impressed by the Boks.

I don't really need them to be impressed GE, I am more irritated by the consistent perceptions.

Meyer is slowly bringing in more expansive rugby, but there is more talk about our forwards and kicking and little recognition of the fact that our backs have outscored our forwards by three tires to one this season.

How you feeling about kirchner biltong? I recall you weren't his biggest fan but he's doing alright at the moment I thought.

I am still not Ebop.

I mean him being your biggest fan. Got that muddled.

Sweet, just checking. I only saw bits of the game last week but i recall your boys capitalised on mistakes very well last week, with accuracy, scary when that happens (for us) when add everything else together.

Still no Ebop.

He is safe under the high ball, he can score tries, but any back worth his salt can score tries, especially when Willie le Roux does all the work for you.

He is still predictable, still doesn't pass and still doesn't have a creative bone in his body.

Willie le Roux, not familiar with this fulla. Will keep an eye on him. Thanks for the heads up.

Wasn't he a flyhalf at the Cheetahs?

le Roux loses a lot of possession. He might bring x-factor, but I would still rather have Kirchner, especially in a match where I suspect we will be under the cosh a lot.

Overall Im very excited about this match, its like our equivalent of the Ashes. Already bought tickets of the return leg.

Such relief getting that off my chest...

now I can sit back and enjoy the match. One things for sure... this is one match the ABs will have to dig deep for...and a good test for Read as stand in captain.

Has anyone put up the teams yet?

If not the abridged version is:

South Africa: Same as last week.

New Zealand:

Owen Franks in for Faumuina,
Liam Messam in for Luatua,
Nonu in for saili,
(talk about kick all the Aucklanders out)
Luatua will cover cover Lock/blind/No8 from bench.....(Dumb against SA).
Matt Todd onto the bench.

Oh and by the way its been raining for the last twelve hours. Im about 10 k from Eden Park.

Luatua out I don't like at all. Wouldn't want to see him come on as a lock. The others make sense to me. I see it as safety for Cane so why pick him? Would much prefer Messam as backrow cover with Luatua and Todd starting and a proper lock on the bench. Are they expecting Messam will come out champing at the bit having seen the rookie outshine him? Think we've missed an opportunity to see Luatua perform among the big SA forwards and the impact he can have. Even if he comes on at 6 from the bench, we don't get to see how he starts fresh against this Bok pack.

I agree kia, a 6 that plays 4, is a completely different creature to a 4 that plays 6, which is what South Africa have done in the past.

Messam/Cane would make sense if it was going to be a dry track, I cant recall Rennie useing that combination with the Chiefs.,

Hansen has simply gone for experience over anything else with 100+ caps and I expected that, especially with McCaw out. Those guys have been there done that many times so there's some sound logic to it. The risk is that Messam and Nonu havnt played for a while. Luatuas definitely the future but all up its experience in winning thats going to best combat this Bok side if its gonna happen. Predictable selection and typical Hansen backing his hardened players when the backs to the wall.

The starting team has a definite experienced feel about it but that bench is looking awfully green and lacking impact. Hansen is obviously plumping for his starting team to get the job done and to make the changes only if required. If we're behind though and need changes to turn the situation around, I think we're severely limited on that front.

Messam has had more of a lay off than Nonu but he could've played last week and didn't. I wonder, as you allude to, whether Hansen originally would have kept Luatua on or whether McCaw's injury has enforced this. It does have a distinct whiff of the latter. Luatua had been ranging wider on the work of McCaw. Maybe he didn't have trust in Luatua of making that adjustment to come back in tighter but he seemed to do it well in the tests against Australia. I think the Bok bench is much stronger and the workload is more evenly distributed.

Maybe Messam and Nonu pull out those special performances they're capable of and Shag proves he's a genius. But I'm worried about our balance in the backrow and the physical presence we need to compete at the breakdown. We came off a rough win with an even rougher performance against SA and sneaked a win due to naive SA tactics. SA are playing a much wiser and effective game this year so we're going to need some brilliance from our back three to gain an edge. I just don't think our pack and the Bok defence will give us the space those boys need to weave their magic. So let's see what Foster comes up to counter that Bok rush defence because we don't look convincing when our space is shut down.

I forgot to mention Coles is starting at hooker.

Heres the Herald's story.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11123314

Do we really need to see where Cole is at if Hore is going to be leaving test rugby at the end of the year? I like the argument of looking to the future. I just think the Pumas test is a good test for a young hooker and save your two veteran hookers for the SA game.

I must confess this nervous pre-game energy is a good sign. I haven't seen myself or the Kiwi fans this jumpy before a game since... maybe 2011 semi final. And not even then. Pressure is what we need though for these young guys to experience now before 2015. What doesn't kill you, only makes you stronger. kia kaha

Whats so different about this test is that we are so used to going into tests and knowing that we are going to win, this time we truely dont know, the players, coaches and supporters are all out of our comfort zones.

NZ will win, home ground, has no fear if the Boks, there is alot of lip service about this being a war, this being the ultimate test etc etc.

South Africa aren't there yet. They could win at home, but they aren't going to beat NZ in NZ.

The All Blacks will be up for this, they know if they stop us now they break our momentum for the RWC.