Lax All Black Pack Cracks But Shag Backs Dagg To Drag Match Back.

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Wow. Just wow. South Africa look to be in awesome form.

Granted Australian rugby is in its most miserable state for fifty years, but there is no disguising how intimidating  this Springbok side is.

The Boks have now married their power game with a rapier precision in the Back line and the experience to know when to switch modes. Add Morne Steyn's siege boot and back in form long range goal kicking and you have a serious unit that will be tough to beat. 

Normally poor tourists, South Africa easily outmuscled a fragile looking Australia and clinched a convincing win at the bastion of Australian resistance, the parochial Suncorp stadium.

In this kind of form I can see South Africa ending new Zealand's long run of success at Eden Park. Especially with captain Richie out injured and Dan Carter out of form.

Hats off to Heyneke Meyer. I was a detractor and I put my hand up and say I was wrong.

Most impressive is south Africa's command at the breakdown. Defensively they must have the best turn over rate in the rugby championship and on attack they can maintain pressure through numerous phases and patiently wait their chance to pounce.  Just awesome stuff.

yeah Im not so fussed with players out as much- we are used to McCaw and DC missing on a regular basis and still win without them.

Alan they did adjust their gameplan for the conditions- why- because they said they did. They just didnt do it very well, but it was good enough.

Execution is critical and that advantage lies with the AB's- they'll test the Bok midfield to the max. They went through Oz on the inside channel several times and will be aiming to do it here.

Luatua will be interesting in his one as GE says- more meat to run into this week- will he be as effective?

Tiredness is I think taken out of context. Last 20 the Boks really need to be leading as if theyre down by more than 7 they'll start getting panicky because constant bullocking doesnt get them tries vs the AB's very often. I think its a critical period- obvious comment but more poignant here, and it'll be the hardest 20 minutes for the Boks in terms of this mini tour.

One of the things about Luatua is they way the loosies have played. I think McCaw gets through a power of work in the tight, the lose and carrying the ball up (I saw stats on his combine work rate relative to other players and the guys a freak). It frees the other two loosies up a bit. I suspect that and the more intense nature of the boks forwards may limit Luatua a bit.

That could be good though- he needs to get back into the tight more as he did in his debut- especially with no McCaw I agree.

Messam is ready this week so could he put him on ahead of Luatua as the incumbant? You'd hope not. Not the best match to return from even if Hansen thinks he's still no. 1.

Out back someones gotta shut JDV down. He's being allowed a lot of running of late and he complements the bok direct approach if it gets as far as him on attack. Steyn's channel will be targeted and he's noit had a happy time in recent years vs the ABs so they might already have something on him there.

(On a side note...Compare the commitment between JDV and JOC and you just have to laugh- laughing it up with the Boks afterwards- they just shouldnt be doing that in front of thousands of paying fans who are sick of this losing).

Is Nonu going to be fit?

Taylorman wrote:yeah Im not so fussed with players out as much- we are used to McCaw and DC missing on a regular basis and still win without them.

Alan they did adjust their gameplan for the conditions- why- because they said they did. They just didnt do it very well, but it was good enough.

Execution is critical and that advantage lies with the AB's- they'll test the Bok midfield to the max. They went through Oz on the inside channel several times and will be aiming to do it here.

Luatua will be interesting in his one as GE says- more meat to run into this week- will he be as effective?

Tiredness is I think taken out of context. Last 20 the Boks really need to be leading as if theyre down by more than 7 they'll start getting panicky because constant bullocking doesnt get them tries vs the AB's very often. I think its a critical period- obvious comment but more poignant here, and it'll be the hardest 20 minutes for the Boks in terms of this mini tour.

you have to concede though that the Boks have the toughest touring schedule.

We are the onl team with three consecutive away matches.

Way tougher biltong...all the more meritorious if they win this.kia alluded to it weeks ago.

I think kapo o pango will come out for this one.Eden park, scene of the wcup final and a side to be feared and the title at stake, uphill from here if we lose and have to travel.

Shades of 2010 with the roles reversed.

Kiwis are gonna love this one...

Definitely tougher. The advantage I see is that Argentina don't seem prepared for first match. Not taking away from SA's performances but it seems Argentina start playing better at home and look off the pace in the first game.

That said SA is in the best position at the moment with bonus points and away wins and that puts less pressure on them for their home games. To be in that position they've had to play very well so they're deservedly putting pressure on NZ for their home game.

One aspect of the Springbok game that has improved rather noticeably is their last twenty minutes.

They have upped their game consistently in all three matches thus far, if you go back to the June test series the same thing has occurred.

They don;t allow easy points at the end, and outscored their opponents in every match in the last quarter.

This suggests to me that the mindset has changed, where in the past we would hang on to leads or struggle to chase, we now move forward in that time. Fitness perhaps? Impact players?

Yeah, liking SA at the moment. Always fear SA when they're in a good head space. It sounds like Biltong is playing it down but his boys seem to have that swagger.

the match SA vs Oz gives us our first point of reference with that match being the first common opponent for the year. gotta be said this looks the toughest matchup weve had for a while and being able to see another side ahead half way through tournament means we wont be caught out. So it does mean that SA are going to have to be at their best. They look like theyre ready this time.

What I'm really impressed about the boks recently is their fitness.... Biltong spoke about the last 20 mins and I think Meyer has seriously addressed it.

When the anthems were being belted out I noticed how trim a lot of the boks were.... JDV, Beast, Bismarck all looked seriously cut and lighter then before.... then when the lineup weights were shown I realised these guys are actually the heaviest they have ever been.

AUS were smashed upfront in a way the lions did in the 3rd test but in the last 20 we pulled away like we haven't been able to do so before. If the boks are to win next week they will need a strong last 20 like never before.... either to come back into the match or to hold off an almighty kiwi backlash.

The bench is also becoming seriously strong... Gunthro, Strauss, Oosthuizen & Kruger, what great versatility to have as options in the tight.

Personally I don't think they need to win to secure the RC. If they at worst get a losing bonus point and stop NZ from scoring 4 tries I think the trophy will be their's to lose. That puts a little less pressure on the boks to win the next match. Its not vital, they can relax a little more and concentrate on their game, it makes an everest like assault seem like K2 (you know the slightly smaller mountain apparently tougher to climb... makes no sense!!!)

SA in their final quarter during this season.

South Africa scored 24 of their 44 points against Italy in the last 20 minutes conceding no points in that time.

Against a feisty Scotland South Africa was under the cosh leading into the 56th minute, they were trailing by four. Then South Africa upped the tempo and scored 17 unanswered points including two tries.

Against Samoa South Africa was never really under pressure, but they still managed to run in 4 tries in the final 24 minutes and conceded one try.

Argentina at home was a blow out, however the first 30 minutes was close, then on the 54th minutes mark South Africa opened up and scored 6 tries, conceding one right at the death.

Mendoza was again a banana peel for the Springboks, with 11 minutes remaining on the clock they were trailing Argentina by one, finally got their act together and started piling on the pressure which ultimately led to two penalty goals.

Australia followed a similar pattern in that the game was not yet done and dusted, with 21 minutes to go, South Africa was only leading by seven points, and then the breakout came, the pace increased and South Africa ran in three tries, whilst conceding no points in the final 20 minutes.

NZ bench is not as strong as it had been traditionally. We used to have a bunch of impact players who would come on to open things up. But Barrett, messam, coles et al don't provide the same punch. 

I think NZ will Rene Ranger who provided that role against France, and I'd look to bring in Frank Halai, super rugby's top try scorer to play that role.

The Tongan? You think he'll represent NZ at full level then?

No 7&1/2 wrote:The Tongan? You think he'll represent NZ at full level then?

I'm pretty sure he's ineligible to play for anyone else as he's played for NZ sevens (our nominated side). Point taken though not sure of his history, know he was born in Tonga, suspect he might have been here on a scholarship. If so would rather he was playing for Tonga.

Wasn't sure how it worked. Have no problem if he chooses to play for NZ just didn't know if he would want to do so.

Halai is an NZ 7s rep, and was in the All Blacks wider training squad earlier in the year. Wouldn't be much of a stretch for him to become an All Black. Reminds me a bit of a young Rokocoko.

Just wiki-ed him. Didn't realise he was born in Tonga. No doubt if he debuts for us the usual northern hemisphere suspects will be whinging about poaching PI talent.

Think he came here as a 15 year old on a scholarship. If so they'd have a point for once. The only twist you could argue is that I think he was a league player (I wouldn't go there).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-YjNji2LJ8

I dont think the travel will be as big a thing as people make out.  Think NZ will win by less than seven and could be a kicking game with two tight defenses and strong breakdowns so lots of slow balls penalties.
I think it will be tense which is just as good as exciting.

biltongs made a good point about the boks finishing of matches this year and thats going to be critical for an away third in a row at probably the toughest ground for the Boks- some absolutely historical matches between the two there with Peter Jones clinching the 56 series and the infamous 81 flour bomb match etc and 2010 the start of the AB dominance over the next 3 seasons.

Still think the last 20 will count against them with the ABs best chance of winning this reliant on two things- frantic pace, and execution, the rest- the set pieces and breakdowns I think cancelling each other out.

Will Morne Steyn go to pieces against NZ again? We seem to be his bogey team.

What are you talking about?

Just checking you were still alive biltong.

But seriously check his stats, they are 20% worse against NZ than any other team.

What stats GE?

any stats to now wont look favourable but its no secret that steyns last tests vs the ABs have not been good. But hes been around and looks to have a second life at this level. Ive been impressed since the steyn of 2 odd years ago. Its his channel that theyll target but the boks will know that and cover it with the loosies well enough. Its the momentum from that that could provide the advantage. Steyns definitely the target if there is one as this wider game is not one the ABs will want to live with for long. Not a lot of weaknesses anywhere else anyway.

Accuracy. Points. Handling errors. Everything.

They all seem to go haywire when he's in NZ.

You'll have to do better than that GE.

Throwing words around won't convince me of anything.

South Africa haven't won in Auckland since 1937
NZ haven't lost at Eden Park in 19 years

Morne took over in 2009 and not only did SA tries reduce by half but SA winning percentages has been in the mid 50 percents consistently.

Year Mat Won Lost Draw Win % Tries
2003 12 7 5 0 58.33 36
2004 13 9 4 0 69.23 45
2005 12 8 3 1 70.83 46
2006 12 5 7 0 41.66 22
2007 17 14 3 0 82.35 81
2008 13 9 4 0 69.23 42
2009 12 8 4 0 66.66 21
2010 13 7 6 0 53.84 36
2011 9 5 4 0 55.55 24
2012 7 3 2 2 57.14 13

Looking at leading try scorers one sees that their try scoring took a knock after Morne became the Bok flyhalf.

Total With Morne Without Morne
Player Matches Tries Matches Tries Matches Tries

Bryan Habana 81 43 35 11 46 32
Jaque Fourie 69 32 26 8 43 24
Jean de Villiers 79 20 33 3 46 17
JP Pietersen 45 14 21 4 24 10
Fourie du Preez 62 13 19 3 43 10

But it is against NZ where Morne struggles most.

This time last year, the Boks lost to NZ in dunedin 21 - 11. Steyn started at 10. The kicking record was 2 from 10 (including one missed drop goal).

Much was made of Morne Steyn becoming the higest scoring fly half against the All Blacks. But his paltry 56 points, just 2 ahead of Joel Stranksy is half of kicking legend Percy Montgomery's tally who kicked from full back and in comparison with Dan Carter's 221 versus the boks, and Andrew Mehrtens 209 it's a shocking record.

NZ 40 - South Africa 7. Ring a bell? Whilst Dan Carter was becoming the world's top points scorer, Morne Steyn suddenly got the wobbles - Against NZ again - breaking his sequence of 49 consecutive successful kicks with a shocking miss right out in front four minutes into the game.

Or the 17th July 2010 where NZ overcame world champions South Africa 31-17 with Steyn again managing to slot just a single penalty and two conversions from 8 chances? in a year when he was kicking at 91%?

I tell you. The guy falls apart when he sees the black.

GE, firstly you are quoting try stats and blaming one player.

You need to step back and ask why we didn't score tries, it had very little to do with Steyn.

Bu everything to do with Pieter de zvilliers and his capitulation to player power.

The blame lies squarely on the shoulders of three senior Springboks in particular.

John Smit, Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez. They refused to adapt after the law changes in 2009.

Just look at Habana's try scoring record.

Under Jake White he scored 30 tries in thirty five tests (when the kick and chase still worked)

Then Habana left the Bulls at the same time Heyneke Meyer left, end of 2007.

During his playing under PDV he scored a mere 10 tries in 43 tests.

Since Heyneke Meyer has taken over Aana has scored 11 tries in 15 tests.

Another stat for you.

In 2012 Mornr Steyn had lost form even before England came to tour SA, his kicking percentage was near 50% until eventually under pressure from the media Steyn was dropped for the znovember tour.

In the period from last year to present the Boks have scored 37 tries via their backline, compared to 15 by their forwards, plus two penalty tries.

Looking at a stat against the All Blacks where we have lost 5 of our last 6 test matches and ascribing those losses to Morne Steyn is not only ludicrous but rather hilarious.

We have been poor against NZ and OZ for the past three years, the fact tha we keep on winning against the other teams have kept us high in the rankings.

But believe me, it had sweet buggerall to do with Steyn cracking aganst the All Blacks.

Just one final comment on this ludicrous thought process you have going here.

EVERYBODY struggles against NZ.

But the statistics point to an equal likelihood of Steyn being the culprit, despite the easy of blaming PDivvy. In fact, the Boks were effective in 2007 until Steyn's appearance in 2009.  How do we explain this? Even with PD long gone, Steyn's influence continued (apparently backed by stats) to spoil SA chances...

In fact I count that Steyn won only the game when NZ named a second string line up in anticipation of the RWC 2011, and once when Francois Steyn did all the kicking and SA prevailed 32-29...it's quite damning if you look at it.

The Corey jane runaround didnt help the experiemnt at Fullback either. All this is why we were appealing to South Africans to go for the Lambies, Goosens etc.

This is all water under the proverbial now...Steyn and the Boks are different player/s now. Steyn went back to his roots at the Bulls and persevered while those around him tripped over themselves in the 10 jersey. He looks stronger now and is behind a confident side. Back then they were in disarray, had coaching and man management problems, injuries, media and fans on their baks.

This year theyve quietly progressed while the fuss of the Lions took the stage and have come out and announced their arrival with the trouncing of Oz.

They havnt beaten Oz in Brisbane since 71 but that didnt stop them so for them history is there simply to be broken.

All I can say is be aware, those stats wont mean anything on Saturday GE...

Well it's not just me. According to today's Herald article, the All Blacks themselves doubted Morne Steyn's ability against them in Dunedin last year - and were apparently proved correct.

The result is history: with even Meyer admitting their kicking had let them down...

Look, I am no fan of Morne Steyn, have never been and never will be, Lambie and Goosen is better than him any day.

Yes, it is easy to blame PDV because it is true, he brought nothing to the Boks to evolve their game plan, people were laughing at him, his nonsensical comments was found entertaining and I am sure the Boks respected him as a person.

But he capitulated under pressure and had no impact on our game, you just need to look at his record which got worse every year, to realise there was no intellectual analysis or methodology to improve our game.

GloriousEmpire wrote:Well it's not just me. According to today's Herald article, the All Blacks themselves doubted Morne Steyn's ability against them in Dunedin last year - and were apparently proved correct.

The result is history: with even Meyer admitting their kicking had let them down...

his kicking let us down from the first test he played last year.
Against England he had a 58% success rate, by the time he got to NZ he was a nervous wreck from the oressure from the SA supporters demanding him being dropped.

So if he did crack it started in June last year against England.

Well SA look in great form and im sure they'll be a tough act to beat.

Even if Steyn does have an off day with the boot.

If its still a reality, and the AB's will be banking on the fact that it is, he'll need to overcome it- thats exactly why he'll be targeted- to see if he's still prone to pressure in the toughest matches. I reckon he'll be ok and we shouldnt rely on it too much, but it does coincide with the AB's ability to attack the 10 channel lately- Toomua/ Cooper- lilo defensive patterns all up the wop, and Stene there will only serve to keep that up.

Meyers not dumb though and he's got the players to plug it. We're going to need more than relying on an error prone Steyn getting stuck in the headlights to win this...but it will help...

Morning guys, well here we are at one of the biggest International rugby tests of the year, and all I know is that I'm nervous as hell.

Oh and by the way blue skies/ fine in Auckland.
Just went out and checked out the front and theres a big black cloud. but I do think a fine firm track will suit the ABs more however the Springboks have methods in "pacing" the game.

Taylorman, if NZ are going to focus on attacing the ten channel they will fail.

Steyn is not a poor defender by any means.

Id of thought that we'd be better off keeping as wide from the inside channel as we can.....thats presuming we can get and retain the ball.

Biltong wrote:Taylorman, if NZ are going to focus on attacing the ten channel they will fail.

Steyn is not a poor defender by any means.

No he's ok but involving him in the game as much as possible is one way of testing his nerve in other areas of his game. Fact is he hasnt gone well previously and that automatically puts pressure on him. But, give him his dues, I think he's a tougher customer now- hes just got to 'update' his AB membership card and have a good one to put it all behind him. Its inevitable the media will focus on Steyn this week.

See Biltong, like Laurie...we're getting nervous and all the rubbish talk is coming out- wouldnt have it any other way...I'm going into town to watch this one thats for sure.

You going Laurie?

I would prefer it if you guys didn't get nervous, and rather under estimated us.

Stats mean little last Saturday the All Blacks equalled the team with the best record of wins in
Test Rugby.FRANCE put that in perspective it was there 327 th win out of something like 400odd.In France`s case it was out of 650 matches played barely a 50 percent win rate the AB`s is 75% plus.Australia have beaten the AB`s more than any other side and once more than SA
in the Pro era.BUT since 1906 SA with few blips has been one of the top 2 sides in world rugby
had there not been a quota system there results would have been more consistent.
Morne Steyn for all his faults is probably the most consistent Goalkicker in current Test rugby
over any decent period.
Heresy Biltong you`re actually blaming your senior players not PDV for the lack of changing
style when it was found out.PDV achieved a Lions Series win a 5/6 and a 3-0 win ratio versus
the ABs and a win at the old "House of Pain".
Traditionally the Boks have been more successful using a 10 man forward orientated game
than a more balanced format[I wrote a long thesis here about it a couple of years ago.
The All Blacks too have been able to score points late to win matches and they will go the full
80 every match.To be honest the draw this year favours the Boks Argentina twice then Australia in disarray has meant.They have had chances to pick up bonus points early even
if they lose at Eden Park.They then have two home games which frankly I expect they will
win and with it the Championship.
This year is the time for NZ to inject New Blood especially if the veterans don`t manage the course to 2015.
Nonu now seems likely to be France bound,Dan the Man and Conrad Smith on sabbatical next year any thing can happen.
Isn`t it a joke players at 31 being considered past it in the modern game.

Taylorman wrote:

Biltong wrote:Taylorman, if NZ are going to focus on attacing the ten channel they will fail.

Steyn is not a poor defender by any means.

No he's ok but involving him in the game as much as possible is one way of testing his nerve in other areas of his game. Fact is he hasnt gone well previously and that automatically puts pressure on him. But, give him his dues, I think he's a tougher customer now- hes just got to 'update' his AB membership card and have a good one to put it all behind him. Its inevitable the media will focus on Steyn this week.

See Biltong, like Laurie...we're getting nervous and all the rubbish talk is coming out- wouldnt have it any other way...I'm going into town to watch this one thats for sure.

You going Laurie?

I havent got a ticket yet, as Ive got work first thing Sunday morning, but if that phone call comes "Hey Laurie weve got a spare ticket because someone cant go ....," Then Ill be off like a robbers dog.

Biltong wrote:Look, I am no fan of Morne Steyn, have never been and never will be, Lambie and Goosen is better than him any day.

I think Lambie already lost out now. He wasn't playing well when he played at 10 or 15 for the boks last year (I know he hasnt gotten much time). He won't push Morne out and he won't push Kirchner out. Goosen might push Morne out and Frans Steyn might push Kirchner out.

Like it or not, the Bulls are our premier team. And how they played against Aus is how the Bulls played when they were on top of there game. So expect a strong Bulls flavour in the next few years.

gee...wouldnt that be a change...

Nonu looks to be back this weekend.

Heavy rain forecast for Saturday.

Mudfest.

Will be a close one then.

If so I think it could suit the boks more. We're more conservative, Morne is starting, the boks have bigger forwards, a slower backrow and our backs are less potent with running with the ball.

In the end its not like NZ won't be used to playing in these conditions... its their country after all.