Australian Open: Day Ten - 2014

First topic message reminder :

http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule15.html

Day 9 somehow got lost , but Day 10 is ready to start.



Cibulkova would be an interesting winner, but she has a hard time closing matches (she is a class apart from the recent Djokovic antics).

Vika should have an easier time, but ARad is a tough cookie.

The Mens side has seen two "upsets" already, is there room for more?

Can Grigor (Baby Fed, to the French version) do the possible and upset Nadal the Iron Man?

Perhaps Federer (the elder) is the more capable between the two to cause an upset and beat Murray?

Fun day of Tennis awaits. Goodluck to all contestants today.

Congats to Federer fans, sounds like he deserved his win today. Commiserations to murray fans but doubt he will be too disappointed.

I think there is a lot of knee jerk reactions on here. Murray and Djokovic have both lost to very good players who are showing very good form. I cannot get over the reaction to Djokovic's defeat, winning 4 oz opens in a row was a tall order.

People questioning Djokovic's bottle etc dont seem to understand just how difficult this level of the game is. I dont think for a second he bottled it, he consistently held his serve comfortably under huge pressure in the games beforehand. It was inevitable that he or stan would make a mistake and this year it was novak. Djokovic won the two close battles last year but they could have gone either way too.

I do get where people are coming from with the pattern of these losses but he won the Australian open this time last year beating the likes of Murray, Wawrinka and Berdych. At wimbledon he came through an epic 5 setter against del potro and was pretty worn out for the final. Hard to blame him there, also Murray was destined to win that!

With the US open, again Djokovic beat wawrinka in 5 sets under huge pressure and very nearly beat rafa. He was so close to a break in that 3rd set but couple of things just didnt go his way. Since then, he has beaten Nadal in the world tour finals showing great bottle and he also beat the likes of Federer, del potro, wawrinka too.

I think people really over-react to these defeats, they are human !!! Losing to wawrinka this week is nothing like Rafa losing to Darcis and federer losing to stakhovsky.

Anyway, will be interesting to see the Fedal match, will Federer finally bring out a plan B, you would have thought he might have figured something out by now ! That being said, i hope we see a new champion this week, preferably wawrinka but wouldnt begrudge berdych

Hahahaha, you're nasty HM, thought very cute

Hawkeye is just vocal, is all. I don't particularly like Murray, but I think he's a good player and probably a good person and don't think that he should be anything other than encouraged by his AO performance

lol Barry...but seriously those blisters look painful and are surely only going to get worse before the tournament ends...3hr+ today cant have helped. He hardly ever DFs but did 7 today...Fed could take advantage of any sluggish starts and errors, plus he's playing better than for a long time...ok he's not fave but a win wouldn't surprise me either given the situation right now. He has to win the 1st set...a lot will depend on scheduling too. Day favours Fed, evening Nadal.

I think Murray needs some more hours, probably take it easy in FO as a training exercise and all guns out for W.

Just watching the highlights of Nadal v Dimitrov and Nadal was very unsettled. He hasn't been playing well but thats happens relatively often and it rarely matters to Fedal matches. There is definitely room for optimism but it will be dashed. Damn it

Just changing tact - I have a sneaky to strong feeling that Berdych will beat Wawrinka in the other semi.

Same was said by some for Tsonga and Murray match, yet he prevailed. Lets see.

Haven't read the stuff about Nole, but it's amusing that as soon as Fed gets going and Murray and Novak fail (relatively speaking) some of our old friends, not seen for ages (i.e. July 2012   ) are on here having fun

Would you be playing 100% with this...?! Ouch...

lydian wrote:Would you be playing 100% with this...?! Ouch...

He wants to try rowing if he wants to know about blisters on his hands. I doubt they'll make much difference.

lydian wrote:lol Barry...but seriously those blisters look painful and are surely only going to get worse before the tournament ends...3hr+ today cant have helped. He hardly ever DFs but did 7 today...Fed could take advantage of any sluggish starts and errors, plus he's playing better than for a long time...ok he's not fave but a win wouldn't surprise me either given the situation right now. He has to win the 1st set...a lot will depend on scheduling too. Day favours Fed, evening Nadal.

It's a guarantee for nights, no way are they scheduling this 2nd class. I want speed!

I think Rafa said they were better today.

I cannot see how blisters get better when the area affected is being heavily used holding a racquet tightly. The only way they will get better is when he has a week or so off - in my opinion.

They all carry niggles, injuries of one sort or another - some more visible than others. I doubt you'd find more than a handful of matches between the big 4 where both players are at 100%.

Well whatever the case with blisters this has to represent Roger's best chance to beat Rafa in a long while. Roger is in a fine vein of form and playing consistently whilst Rafa has looked vulnerable in his last two matches and not in the form he was in at the end of last season.

barrystar wrote:

lydian wrote:Would you be playing 100% with this...?! Ouch...

He wants to try rowing if he wants to know about blisters on his hands.  I doubt they'll make much difference.

Those would hurt rowing, though you'd grit through the pain. In rowing though there's no change of grip, little rest to reduce your tolerance to the pain and even long rowing outings don't last as long as Tennis matches. Plus you don't need any fine control over your hands, even feathering is a pretty coarse action. It's not like he's not playing or really struggling, just making things a bit harder, and most rowers would find a race a bit harder with a blister like that (pretty bad even for a rower) and the blister would affect what they were doing less


Yours,

A rower

Intriguing quote from Roger's press conference:

I'm looking forward to speaking to Stefan, because when we spoke together, you know, when he came to Dubai and we spoke about the game, we clearly spoke about playing Rafa, as well.

He thought he had some good ideas, so I'm looking forward to what he has to say.  Clearly with Severin, he knows him inside out.  I'm looking forward to hear what the boys have to say.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall for those discussions.

lydian wrote:Would you be playing 100% with this...?! Ouch...

Some of the kids I coach get blisters every so often, but very rarely have I seen one that bad. Ouch!

Grip change will definitely affect that, and not surprised to hear that there were DFs all over the place. I can't imagine trying to hit a serve with any sort of action on it with that sort of impediment. Still, there'll be heavy medical treatment over the next two days for Rafa, hopefully it won't hamper him unduly against Federer.

Thanks for the gracious words after the loss today, Danny and Craig.

Going on a punt here. Fed I think wil win with comfort. If Rafa was playing well like agaisnt Monfils, without the blister, hed be fave. Current form suggests Fed in 3 or 4, it depends really on whether he stil has the bottle to take on the Mallorcan wall.

ChequeredJersey wrote:

barrystar wrote:

lydian wrote:Would you be playing 100% with this...?! Ouch...

He wants to try rowing if he wants to know about blisters on his hands.  I doubt they'll make much difference.

Those would hurt rowing, though you'd grit through the pain. In rowing though there's no change of grip, little rest to reduce your tolerance to the pain and even long rowing outings don't last as long as Tennis matches. Plus you don't need any fine control over your hands, even feathering is a pretty coarse action. It's not like he's not playing or really struggling, just making things a bit harder, and most rowers would find a race a bit harder with a blister like that (pretty bad even for a rower) and the blister would affect what they were doing less


Yours,

A rower

 
I haven't rowed for a while, but I remember just gritting through the pain as you say and most of your points are fair enough - I'd agree that rowing makes less sophisticated demands on your hands for a shorter time.  Even so, I used to hate them.  I remember having three rows of blisters, across the inside of the bottom bones of the fingers, across the inside of the knuckles, and a deeper row in the middle of the palms - not to mention the inside of the thumb.  It was relentless and however hard your skin got there was always a handful of blisters in the course of creation, a bit like painting the Forth Bridge.
 
I can imagine it's a handicap, but a marginal one and I'm sure Nadal can manage to grit through the pain with a slam final on the line.

Yeah I'm sure he will, it will make him a bit vulnerable though, so Roger has got to capitalise by attacking the serve. Basically, even with Rafa's matchup advantage, physically and in terms of play right now Fed should win. The real battle will be, as it often is, mental. If Roger can believe he is going to win and doesn't try too hard, he should do. But even then he has to overcome Nadal's allergy to losing the big matches and the big points

I would suggest that Federer, Luthi, Edberg (and perhaps the twins) gather around a television set and watch young Dimitrov v Nadal for inspiration and notes.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Yeah I'm sure he will, it will make him a bit vulnerable though, so Roger has got to capitalise by attacking the serve. Basically, even with Rafa's matchup advantage, physically and in terms of play right now Fed should win. The real battle will be, as it often is, mental. If Roger can believe he is going to win and doesn't try too hard, he should do. But even then he has to overcome Nadal's allergy to losing the big matches and the big points

One of the worst aspects of the match up for Federer is that a preponderance of key points arise when the server is serving into the advantage Court - Nadal can hit a nice high wide spinning serve out to the back hand, and when Federer goes out wide on his serve it's straight into that nightmarish forehand.

Obviously, Nadal has to be a marvellous player to pressure Federer whichever hand he plays with, but I'm sure that aspect of the match-up plays quite a big part in why Fed squanders so many bp's on the Nadal serve and why his own serve is so relatively difficult to hold vs. Nadal.

Nobody's denying Nadal's mental strength, but it can only be enhanced by knowing that about your match up.

I think facing Federer across the net adds a good chunk of juice into the Nadal batteries, I really don't see Federer managing it, but I'd love it if he can inject some interest into the 'rivalry' by winning with a new Plan B.

Why? Rafa played poorly and still won in 4...

It was interesting to hear Fed after the match today, saying he's not very good at winning break points.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Why? Rafa played poorly and still won in 4...

That was to laverfan btw

I thought that was interesting of Federer to say he was not very good at winning break points. In my opinion there has never been a better big point player than Nadal, he delivers time and again when he needs it most. Does anybody know the career tie break records of the top players, i bet Nadal must be on top, particularly given he has arguably the slowest (not the worst) serve.

Federer looking forward to the Rafa match, about as realistic as I've ever heard him in relation to the great nemesis, although I wonder about the memory loss, he must be referring to the last slam match:
 

Q.  Given Rafa has had a good record against you in recent years, especially in slams.  Do you take any comfort in the fact that he is struggling a little bit with his left hand, which means he can't serve quite as well as normal?
ROGER FEDERER:  Then 210 bombs are coming my way again.  Who knows.  He's been tough to play against, no doubt.  I'm happy I get a chance to play him in a slam again.  I don't remember the last time we played.

The head to head record is in his favor.  I'm looking forward to speaking to Stefan, because when we spoke together, you know, when he came to Dubai and we spoke about the game, we clearly spoke about playing Rafa, as well.

He thought he had some good ideas, so I'm looking forward to what he has to say.  Clearly with Severin, he knows him inside out.  I'm looking forward to hear what the boys have to say.  We'll prepare.  I hope I can get a win.  We'll see.

I'm very interested to see what Edberg has seen that can be exploited in Nadal's game (excluding the crater). Not dismissing it off hand, I've just seen Federer try every tactic known to tennis over the last four years, and with the exception of WTF 2011, I can't say that one has been a resounding success... Maybe he'll have him serve volley on a frequent non-frequent basis? Slow down his service games to make Rafa wait for once? Prepare some Suisse chocolate and promptly give every ball-boy, line judge, and umpire a sample?

On a serious note, I'm actually very interested to see what Federer can do that he hasn't already tried yet..

slashermcguirk wrote:I thought that was interesting of Federer to say he was not very good at winning break points. In my opinion there has never been a better big point player than Nadal, he delivers time and again when he needs it most. Does anybody know the career tie break records of the top players, i bet Nadal must be on top, particularly given he has arguably the slowest (not the worst) serve.

Funnily enough, Federer has the top %, and he's played way more than Nadal or any of the other top guys according to Wiki. I suspect it's because his serve is so reliable:

Tiebreakers % * W–L
1. Switzerland Roger Federer 65.10 342-183
2. United States John Isner 64.60 199-109
3. Serbia Novak Djokovic 64.26 160-89
4. United States Pete Sampras 63.70 274-156
5. Spain Rafael Nadal 63.67 170-97
6. United Kingdom Andy Murray 62.40 126-76
7. United States Andy Roddick 62.20 304-185
8. Argentina David Nalbandian 60.20 130-86
9. Germany Michael Stich 60.10 134-89
= Sweden Stefan Edberg 60.10 107-71
* minimum 100 wins

slashermcguirk wrote:I thought that was interesting of Federer to say he was not very good at winning break points. In my opinion there has never been a better big point player than Nadal, he delivers time and again when he needs it most. Does anybody know the career tie break records of the top players, i bet Nadal must be on top, particularly given he has arguably the slowest (not the worst) serve.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Reliability-Zone/Reliability-Tie-Breakers-Career-List.aspx

Fed at the top, Rafa fifth.

Sorry, I was a bit slow there

kingraf wrote:I'm very interested to see what Edberg has seen that can be exploited in Nadal's game (excluding the crater). Not dismissing it off hand, I've just seen Federer try every tactic known to tennis over the last four years, and with the exception of WTF 2011, I can't say that one has been a resounding success... Maybe he'll have him serve volley on a frequent non-frequent basis? Slow down his service games to make Rafa wait for once? Prepare some Suisse chocolate and promptly give every ball-boy, line judge, and umpire a sample?

On a serious note, I'm actually very interested to see what Federer can do that he hasn't already tried yet..

Maybe just go back to what he did at Wimby? It was more successful than unsuccessful.

Djokovic has a better tie break record than Rafa?

Wow, that surprises me.

I agree, I suspect Federer's record comes from his ability to find a really good first serve at big moments.

Federer's serve was immaculate for the first hour or so today. I think I saw a stat pop up just into the second set that was something like 83% first serves in, 91% points won on first serve. Ridiculous.

Wow, thanks Barrystar. Really surprised to see Nadal further down the list. Even today when he wasnt playing great, he still managed to play the big points well and take the breakers. I suppose i was just going by my own experience of watching nadal matches and i rarely can remember him losing one.

I am not surprised that Federer is right up there with his incredible serve but expected Nadal to at least be on a par with him. Interesting that Djokovic is ahead of both Nadal and Murray, again I wouldnt have expected that.

No big shock to see big Isner up there.

slashermcguirk wrote:I thought that was interesting of Federer to say he was not very good at winning break points. In my opinion there has never been a better big point player than Nadal, he delivers time and again when he needs it most. Does anybody know the career tie break records of the top players, i bet Nadal must be on top, particularly given he has arguably the slowest (not the worst) serve.

Federer is actually the all time leader in tiebreaks both in numbers won and winning %... Nadal is 5th
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Reliability-Zone/Reliability-Tie-Breakers-Career-List.aspx

Federer isn't bad at winning break points-- he generates so many chances he usually gets one in the end... He just doesn't convert in as high percentage as Nadal and some of the other top guys.   IF someone plays a match and wins 3 out of 5 breaks.... and Federer wins his match and converts 4 out of 15 breaks-  that stats show Federer had worst percentage etc, but he still generated tons of chances and broke more.  That's what typically happens in a Fed match...   Against Rafa- it's true that while Fed does generate the chances-- he def has trouble converting, but that also has a lot to do with the lefty serve to ad.

sorry- I see I was the slowest of all to show the tiebreak stats!

Funny how quickly things change and how people flip and flop.... couple of weeks ago, every tennis forum is talking about how Federer has lost it permantly. can't even beat Hewitt in Brisbane.. Last year- even his fans are screaming for him to retire... Now a couple of weeks later- he's been probably the best player in the AO, dominant on serve, people talking about his form is good enough to beat his boogyman Nadal....... Might all be true, just interesting how quickly things turn.

Fed is playing with confidence and the results definitely make me want to believe... but I also remember multiple times he's entered a Nadal watch playing better tennis than Nadal and still doesn't win.. The year he went into the French having knocked of Djoko- he virtually dominated most of the 1st set against Nadal, missed a set point by a few millimeter and that was it... The patterns just don't favor Fed in this match. I hate to say it as one of his biggest fans, and I truly belive he is the GOAT and greater than Nadal, but a matchup issue is a matchup issue. However- as many mention- there are factors at play like Nadals blisters,etc... so it will be interesting. Win or lose though- it's been a great tournament for Fed and I think he's shown that he's still a force in the near term. I don't think it's farfetched to now say that another Major is a definite possibility.

ChequeredJersey wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:Why? Rafa played poorly and still won in 4...

That was to laverfan btw

I think Nadal played very well. Dimitrov missed chances as this article mentions.

There are two moments, both in the crucial third set, that will keep Grigor Dimitrov from sleeping tonight.

A pair of forehand errors at 6-6 and 7-8 in the third-set tiebreak when the match was still in the balance helped seal Dimitrov's fate in Wednesday's 3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(7) 6-2 loss to world No.1 Rafael Nadal at Rod Laver Arena.

http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2014-01-22/rafa_wins_war_of_attrition.html

I think last year Fed beat 2 Top 10 players - Delpo (twice?) and someone else. This year he's beaten 2 already. By 2017 he should be back to his best

I'm a bit late but well done to The Fed I think he has a better chance than normal against Nadal so he might fancy his chances in that one. I prefer the second semi in terms of the match-up though and hope it goes the way of Stan. It's a shame I can't watch either but I'll tune into the final if possible.

I am now watching the match. I am about 2 weeks behind!!

(moved to Roger vs Rafa thread )

First set over. Federer is forcing the pace totally and dominating the rallies. Murray towards end of the set showing signs of aggression. Needs to find some first serves. Federer in full flow. Superb at the net.

Sorry I cant look beyond those blisters that caused Nadal to DF 3 times in one game today. Its Federer's to lose IMO as that blister will be no better by Friday and he wont be able to practice properly either. I read the comments above but come on guys thats a monstrous blister, withdrawal type stuff. No idea how he can give 100& with that. Honestly.

kingraf wrote:I'm very interested to see what Edberg has seen that can be exploited in Nadal's game (excluding the crater). Not dismissing it off hand, I've just seen Federer try every tactic known to tennis over the last four years, and with the exception of WTF 2011, I can't say that one has been a resounding success... Maybe he'll have him serve volley on a frequent non-frequent basis? Slow down his service games to make Rafa wait for once? Prepare some Suisse chocolate and promptly give every ball-boy, line judge, and umpire a sample?

On a serious note, I'm actually very interested to see what Federer can do that he hasn't already tried yet..

"The Crater"   

Fans. Bless us, every one!

lydian wrote:Sorry I cant look beyond those blisters that caused Nadal to DF 3 times in one game today. Its Federer's to lose IMO as that blister will be no better by Friday and he wont be able to practice properly either. I read the comments above but come on guys thats a monstrous blister, withdrawal type stuff. No idea how he can give 100& with that. Honestly.

I agree with you Lydian he has suffered pain for much of his career but this is different.. it affects the way he holds his racquet, the power and accuracy of his shots and above all his serve.  If it goes to a long match as I see that it will with Fed playing some supreme stuff in this tournament. its hardly "lets stick a band aid on it and forget about it is it?"  . I fear it will affect the result.

But he doesn't always NEED to give 100% lydian.

He very often wins when quite some way below his best.....

lags72 wrote:But he doesn't always NEED to give 100% lydian.

He very often wins when quite some way below his best.....

Something tells me he will have to give at least 95% Roger has the bit between his teeth and his sights high

bogbrush wrote:

kingraf wrote:I'm very interested to see what Edberg has seen that can be exploited in Nadal's game (excluding the crater). Not dismissing it off hand, I've just seen Federer try every tactic known to tennis over the last four years, and with the exception of WTF 2011, I can't say that one has been a resounding success... Maybe he'll have him serve volley on a frequent non-frequent basis? Slow down his service games to make Rafa wait for once? Prepare some Suisse chocolate and promptly give every ball-boy, line judge, and umpire a sample?

On a serious note, I'm actually very interested to see what Federer can do that he hasn't already tried yet..

"The Crater"   

Fans. Bless us, every one!

It was a reference to Julius' reference which referenced my original moniker for the blister to end all blisters, the crater..