Ulster 2014/2015

First topic message reminder :

Details of pre-season games to confirmed- we take on Exeter Chiefs at Ravenhill on Friday the 22nd August and then travel to Donnybrook to face Leinster on Friday the 29th August. On the transfer front, it seems like our business for the year is concluded. Second row looks strong and our back line is stronger than ever, but there are concerns about our depth in the front row and back row of the pack. A lot depends on Wiehahn Herbst turning out to be a hit and Chris Henry staying fit- our decision to spend a valuable NIQ spot on Louis Ludik and Sean Doyles departure leaves us exposed at open side with two new, extremely untested players in Reidy and Butterworth vying to be Henrys understudy. Rob Herring is another player who needs to avoid injury at all costs. Niall Annett has been allowed to leave along with Brady in recent seasons and the 3rd choice hooker is not obvious. With seedings in Europe determined by league performance, Ulster may very well rue their lack of depth in the forward pack come May.

Players Out
Johann Muller (retired), Paddy Wallace (retired), Stephen Ferris (retired), Chris Cochrane (retired), Chris Farrell (Grenoble), Niall Annett (Worcester), John Afoa (Gloucester), Tom Court (London Irish), James McKinney (Rotherham), David McIlwaine (Rotherham), Paddy McAllister (Aurillac), Sean Doyle (ACT Brumbies), Adam Macklin (Rotherham), Ian Porter (Connacht)

Players In
Franco van der Merwe (Golden Lions), Louis Ludik (Agen), Wiehahn Herbst (Natal Sharks), Ruaidhrí Murphy (ACT Brumbies), Dave Ryan (Zebre), Ian Humphreys (London Irish), Charlie Butterworth (Lansdowne), Sean Reidy (Counties Manukau)

Ulster don't do turbulent off seasons but if we did...

We've also been rocked with the seismic revelation David Humphreys is leaving the province- indeed has already left- for Gloucester. Anscombe was slated to be seeing out the last year of his contract before being quietly let go but the Humphreys bombshell left him as the odd man out, and he's been pushed out the door. The decision was partly because he was hired to work under a Director of Rugby and Ulster are looking for someone with more experience in the market to take on Humphreys role in addition to the coaching responsibilities. As usual, the rumour mill is on overdrive and opinions are polarised- but this is Ulster Rugby after all. Les Kiss is our interim Director of Rugby and it seems Allen Clarke is filling the role of forwards coach in the short term. More changes or appointments could be forthcoming.

If all that wasn't enough we've been dealt a real group of death in the new Champions Cup- double-winners Toulon will brave the Ravenhill roar along with old friends Leicester Tigers and old foes the Scarlets. All in all, this team should be capable of securing a Top 4 finish at the very least in the Pro12 and we need to target the top two, our prospects in Europe look more occluded- it might come down to best runners-up and our pool promises to be tight and competitive.

Opening fixtures

F; Exeter Chiefs (H)
F; Leinster (A)

Pro12; Scarlets (A)
Pro12; Zebre (H)
Pro12; Cardiff Blues (A)
Pro12; Zebre (A)
Pro12; Edinburgh (H)

Don't think so fly - pretty sure Anscombe would be the one leaving if that was the case.

rodders wrote:

I think he's done an awesome job and we could ask no more.

Yes...but you see how it works. He's considered to have done an awesome job. That consideration has obviously assisted him in getting the Gloucester job. But already we have one Ulster fan here saying Anscombe should get the sack for the lack of success on the field in terms of making it all work at the final hurdle. Humphreys gets the pats on the back, but Anscombe gets the blame for it not all exactly reaching the heights that Humphreys is getting the pats for.
The Poopie sticks with the coach, but the coach had less power than he might have had with such a prominently controlling Director.

rodders wrote:Don't think so fly - pretty sure Anscombe would be the one leaving if that was the case.

Not so sure. A disagreement about the way to finally get across the winning post might have just goaded Humphreys to be more open to the offer coming from Goucester. Rather than staying to fight it out with Anscombe and perhaps finally drop an uncooperative Anscombe over the side, he might have just chosen to move on himself.

Well I'm not blaming anyone for Ulster's lack of success....I actually don't think we've even had a lack of success, just a lack of silverware to show for the phenomenal success on and off the pitch we have had over the past 5 years.

Anscombe and Humphreys deserve credit, not blame, the latter more so because it's been his and Logans vision than has provided Anscombe with the squad and facilities to succeed - which to some degree he has,

My point is that if there were issues in the working relationship that would have influenced Humph in leaving, then Anscombe would be out, not Humphreys.

If there were issues in working conditions that would make Humph walk then they came from above and not below. I think the joint lure of much more money and a new challenge is sufficient explanation for me without having to speculate much further though...

Not if Humphreys chooses to move out first.  Anscombe had his contract renewed.  Maybe then they started to have discussions about making all the bells ring strongly enough to collect some silverware and.......... discussions weren't working out. What do you do? Sack a coach that has had his contract renewed? Besides, sacking a coach might be seen as scapegoating the personel hirer.

Oh who is to know.  It's sudden, that's all.  It's sudden...and it was cloaked - and that doesn't seem like the work of such an astute organiser unless it was meant to hit the fan in the way it did.  
That tends to mean friction of a sort prior to leaving.  Whether that's Logan or Anscombe or a combination of all three, it seems the behind the scenes frustrations of always being so close and not collecting the silverware decided Humphey's decision.

I can understand that a lot of folks on here are taking this decision very personally. But in reality, none of us know why Humphs has taken the decision to leave, so we shouldn't judge him. I would imagine that there's a combination of reasons - most of which have been mentioned in previous posts.

But he's gone now and we should all be looking forward to the challenges ahead for Ulster.

Thanks for the memories, David. Good luck at Gloucester, don't let the door hit you on the ar$e on the way out.

So, what's next? Does this change the landscape with regard to Anscombe's future? I would imagine it must have been difficult having your boss looking over your shoulder (literally...) during every game. I really don't share or understand a lot of the criticism on here about Anscombe. I think he's done a very good job, albeit we have failed to get the result in the big games. But overall, I think he has improved the team and has brought more consistency to our game. Show me where there is a glaringly better candidate who is prepared to come to Ravenhill (err, I mean, Kingspan Stadium) and who Ulster can afford.

Can Logan step up to the plate and show the off-field leadership that we need to identify and sign new talent?

Most of the team seems to be set for next season with the exception of a few 'squad fillers' so it's not like Humphs walked out having left everyone in the lurch. I'm disappointed in the quality of the replacements for Muller and Afoa - and unlike others on here, I don't think that Roger Wilson or Callum Black are good enough for a team looking to challenge for honours in its league, nevermind the European Cup. Would having David Humphreys here have negated those concerns?

SecretFly wrote:Not if Humphreys chooses to move out first.  Anscombe had his contract renewed.  Maybe then they started to have discussions about making all the bells ring strongly enough to collect some silverware and.......... discussions weren't working out.  What do you do?  Sack a coach that has had his contract renewed?  Besides, sacking a coach might be seen as scapegoating the personel hirer.

Anscombe only has a year extension though fly, and Humph would have had a big say on that. Even if there was a subsequent fall out it would be nonsensical that Humph would leave a club he's been involved with his whole life for the sake of working with a coach (who he's the boss of anyways) for the sake of 1 season., when he could appoint Anscombe's successor by Christmas.

By all accounts Humph had a rockier relationship with McLaughlin than Anscombe.

I find it difficult to judge success purely by silverware. For that matter if we'd had lady luck shine on us a little more last season with regards to injuries and certain big game decisions we'd possibly have been holding some silverware. Those little bits of bad luck doesn't mean Ulster haven't had a successful season. Unbeaten in the European groups, quarter final HC exit (only just and with only 14 player) and a semi final pro12 exit (only just and with only 14 players).

We will need someone who can see Ulster as a successful side who are going places, someone with the same kind of vision and dealbreaking abilities of Dr Dave. Has Logan got these qualities? We'll see.

Anscombe will not be here for 2015-16.

I am as certain of that as I can be

Pete330v2 wrote:I find it difficult to judge success purely by silverware. For that matter if we'd had lady luck shine on us a little more last season with regards to injuries and certain big game decisions we'd possibly have been holding some silverware. Those little bits of bad luck doesn't mean Ulster haven't had a successful season. Unbeaten in the European groups, quarter final HC exit (only just and with only 14 player) and a semi final pro12 exit (only just and with only 14 players).

We will need someone who can see Ulster as a successful side who are going places, someone with the same kind of vision and dealbreaking abilities of Dr Dave. Has Logan got these qualities? We'll see.

Totally agree Pete. Ulster have a lot of positives and is an attractive assignment. Most of the negatives for me really are based on factors outside out control - i.e. issues around the Rabo and new European comp, the rising salaries in France.... balancing the needs of the IRFU and national set up.

Most things within our control are being done exceptionally well - the facilities, the marketing, the S&C team, the academy - or at least they are being done far better than ever in the past. No one can ask more than that and much of it is down to Humph.

geoff998rugby wrote:Anscombe will not be here for 2015-16.

I am as certain of that as I can be

Why is he so bad though, Geoff? -  Considering he has to work with players he hasn't had too much say (if any) in choosing?

A coach should always be central in choosing the players he wants for the strategies/style he'd like to play.  You seem to be blaming him for not hitting the heights with players chosen by someone who doesn't coach?

Think you're being tough on him as I see him having his players well drilled and hungry - for example they were often savagely competitive when down a man.  As people say, luck isn't being good to them at crunch times but also, he's a coach coaching someone else's selection.  You might argue all Provincial coaches are under such limitations but only in Ulster was there such a prominent "I'm boss and hire man" standing so promintently behind a Head Coach.

I would suggest Anscombe has had a degree of input into the signings but like all things it is relative to Humphreys and also the irfu and the year (pre RWC year not so many are moving).

I don't agree with all the flak he gets though (Anscombe that is) and I think things conspired against him this year.

Don't agree with UiK though. I think Wilson and Black have shown themselves to be more than capable at HEC level. Also not certain how we can judge Herbst and VDM before they set foot here. VDM is a recent springbok cap and by all accounts an excellent lock. Muller, despite his massive impact was diminished in a playing capacity last season so it's his leadership that will be missed. Ludik, Herbst, Murphy etc should be judged on what they do in a white shirt, nothing more

I don't agree with over the top criticism of Anscombe either, but I don't see him having the credentials to hold onto the job now Humphreys has gone. He was brought in purely as a coach working under a Director of Rugby- handling signings etc. wasn't a concern. His total lack of a track record in that regard wasn't the issue it has suddenly become.

Now that Humphreys is gone, I would want us to sign a top quality Head Coach who will bring in his own staff and be responsible for the rugby side of things including signings. Matt Sexton would be ideal.

Unfortunately next season could be one of rebuilding, but rugby is funny. We could still be in with a shot at the Pro12 title.

No coach will be allowed to bring in their own Staff Doak and Bell have permanent contracts with the branch and have been invested in as pro coaches.

It's the same at all the provinces. Any coach who comes in, part of their role is to groom these guys for the head roles like Penney had to with Foley.

Clarke as well.

Anscombe has had input into the team - Williams is here because of him no one else.
Maybe Doyle as well - but I am less sure of that.

Fact is, rightly, or wrongly, he is not rated by some.

His treatment of young Nelson.
His public comments about Payne and McKinney were not professional for example.
Didn't go to the players end of year do.

Seems small thing in themselves but reflective of a wider issue in terms of player relationships.

Also as he is our forward coach - the rolling maul and breakdown have not been as good as they should have been.

With Humphreys going we will be looking either for a significantly higher profile coach, or a internal appointment, when he goes.
Or it could be both (McCall available next summer?   )

Could be wrong Rodders but I believe Doak and Bell (and someone else I can't recall) signed a one year extension at some point this year.

I am sceptical about Doak but not Bell. Ultimately I think three years is a decent stint for any head coach so I don't see how Anscombe will be retained

I think Clarke has a permanent contract but as far as I know Doak and Bell have contracts that expire at the same time as Anscombes. Niall Malone too.

http://www.ulsterrugby.com/News/LatestNews/TabId/149/ArtMID/793/ArticleID/1322/Management-team-agree-contract-extensions-.aspx

I stand corrected, re Doak and Bell. The point stands though that the provincial head coaches rarely have much input into the coaching staff and part of the condition of signing NIE coaches is to develop the indigenous ones.

I read this on t'other forum and I think it says it all about Hump's departure...

"It's like finding out your Dad has a secret family, and is leaving to be with them . . ."

Standulstermen wrote:Could be wrong Rodders but I believe Doak and Bell (and someone else I can't recall) signed a one year extension at some point this year.

I am sceptical about Doak but not Bell. Ultimately I think three years is a decent stint for any head coach so I don't see how Anscombe will be retained

They did indeed.

I don't think we will see any big changes this summer.
The NIQ signings are done - we still need a couple of backrowers though.

I suspect the same coaching line up for a year but a complete turn around in the summer with a big name coming in.
As some above alluded to it with all the players leaving this looks like a year of consolidation.
If we tread water for 12 months that is as much as I would expect.

What would the salary expectations of a big name coach be and could we realistically expect to meet them, if French or English clubs are likely to able to afford to pay more than we can for the foreseeable future?

I wonder if a head coach is already lined up. Perhaps post world cup. But perhaps this coach has insisted taking davey's responsibilities. Davey perhaps t0ok his way out this season when it was offered since next season he may not have got as good an offer.

Perhaps a. Big name coach in the backline is also why weve see a reduction in big salaries among the squad.

clivemcl wrote:I wonder if a head coach is already lined up. Perhaps post world cup. But perhaps this coach has insisted taking davey's responsibilities. Davey perhaps t0ok his way out this season when it was offered since next season he may not have got as good an offer.

Perhaps a. Big name coach in the backline is also why weve see a reduction in big salaries among the squad.

I'm not so sure that Declan wants to return to full coaching so soon. But you might be right.

Monkeyan wrote:What would the salary expectations of a big name coach be and could we realistically expect to meet them, if French or English clubs are likely to able to afford to pay more than we can for the foreseeable future?

Money is not a problem - if you take Humphreys and Anscombes salaries together we can aim for the top.
Whatever else is an issue at Ulster money worries isn't one of them.

clivemcl wrote:I wonder if a head coach is already lined up. Perhaps post world cup. But perhaps this coach has insisted taking davey's responsibilities. Davey perhaps t0ok his way out this season when it was offered since next season he may not have got as good an offer.

Perhaps a. Big name coach in the backline is also why weve see a reduction in big salaries among the squad.

The reason we are seeing a reduction in big NIQ salaries is a realization we will have to pay IQ players more to keep them.
This is happening at all 3 major provinces.
Also for Ulster we have a number of young lads on low salaries who when they come round next time for a contract renewal will be looking for considerable increases - we need to accomodate them.

Very Hard pool draw for next year

Toulon
Leicester Tigers
Ulster Rugby
Scarlets

trustedwomble wrote:Very Hard pool draw for next year

Toulon
Leicester Tigers
Ulster Rugby
Scarlets

Not a problem, bring em on

Well the bad news keeps on coming -

Toulon, Leicester, Scarlets.

Doubt more than one from this group and I can't see it being us

Well, we have a pool of death. Absolute minimum we should target is four wins- all three home games and away to the Scarlets- but it'll be hard to see that qualifying us.

We should mainly target the Pro12 next season to get seeded higher for this competition, giving us a more realistic chance of securing a quarter-final place. A top two finish in the league is our number one priority.

But seriously, Ulster Rugby haven't had one iota of luck since the end of the Six Nations. It's been a comically bad run of bad news.

geoff998rugby wrote:Well the bad news keeps on coming -

Toulon, Leicester, Scarlets.

Doubt more than one from this group and I can't see it being us

Toulon will not have DeadEye Jonny to keep their scorecard ticking over though so....................... all is not lost.

To be fair most of the groups look hard, with pool 2 and 4 looking the easiest

Pool 2
Leinster
Castes
Harlequins
Wasps

Pool 4
Glasgow
Montpellier
Bath
Toulouse

Ulster will realise they can't compete with the big French clubs, so should concentrate on the PRO12, and use the ERC Cup as a development tool!

The fact that three of last years semi-finalists are all in the same pool tells you everything you need to know about this seeding system...

Pool 2
Leinster
Castes
Harlequins
Wasps

On paper that looks quite......... well, it does.  But O'Connor will need to be more urgent in his coaching methods for Leinster to reap the benefits of what looks less omenous than it might have looked.

Ulster do have a nightmare for them.  But the result of the nightmare is that Leicester and Toulon will be thinking similar thoughts.  I doubt any side feels comfortable looking at their opponents.

SecretFly wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Well the bad news keeps on coming -

Toulon, Leicester, Scarlets.

Doubt more than one from this group and I can't see it being us

Toulon will not have DeadEye Jonny to keep their scorecard ticking over though so....................... all is not lost.

Fly they will have Halfpenny to do that instead

marty2086 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Well the bad news keeps on coming -

Toulon, Leicester, Scarlets.

Doubt more than one from this group and I can't see it being us

Toulon will not have DeadEye Jonny to keep their scorecard ticking over though so....................... all is not lost.

Fly they will have Halfpenny to do that instead

Different bundle...different conditions attached to his kicking. Different climate. We'll see. I think if Toulon think they're getting a Jonny replacement with Halfpenny then they might get a surprise. But we'll see.

SecretFly wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Well the bad news keeps on coming -

Toulon, Leicester, Scarlets.

Doubt more than one from this group and I can't see it being us

Toulon will not have DeadEye Jonny to keep their scorecard ticking over though so....................... all is not lost.

Fly they will have Halfpenny to do that instead

Different bundle...different conditions attached to his kicking.  Different climate.  We'll see.  I think if Toulon think they're getting a Jonny replacement with Halfpenny then they might get a surprise. But we'll see.

I think the kicking percentages will see a drop but he's still a pretty decent replacement, the problem will be elsewhere. At times without him this season they looked lost and short of creativity, the Racing game he went off for a while and they looked lost and went from side to side with the ball until he came back

I would agree with Notch, I think we really need to target the league next year. There is little to be gained from finishing second in that group as (most likely) it won't be one of the best runners up. If the league decides the seeding then finish as high up there as possible. If it is a rebuilding year (and with our losses it is looking that way) then that's were the focus should be

marty2086 wrote:At times without him this season they looked lost and short of creativity

There you go - my very point. He might be famous for his kicking but he's also been a useful playmaker (not only given his position but also because in his own right, his career has proved him effective) Halfpenny is far more an on the fringes man, waiting for his kicking opportunities rather than being involved at the engine room actively working those opportunities.

I dont think it will be a case of targetting the league straight away but I do think that if the first couple of European matches go badly then we should not waste our efforts in the December double header.

Likewise if we were out of it after the double header then reserves for the January games.

Just reality but at the same time we will go full bore for the first two games and if results go ok - say a home win to Leicester and an away win to Scarlets - we should give it a lash.

Anyone have any idea when the fixtures will be announced ?

That's fair enough Geoff. Personally if we had Toulon in France and the week after Glasgow in scotstoun I know which game I would target

Given the amount of money being spent in France and England, Ulster have to accept they can't compete on two fronts each season as they just don't have the quality of squad. They should resign themselves to try and win the league one year and then with their high seeding go for the ERC Cup in the following one. They will effectively have to 'do an Edinburgh' to protect their squad in the cup year, which in turn will mean dropping to the Challenge cup the following year allowing them to focus on the League again.

It would be tough for Ulster to get out of this ERC Cup pool and even if they did they almost certainly would not get a home quarter. This really is a year to give European experience to fringe players to build the depth necessary to have a proper shot next season. The trouble is next season is a RWC year and Ulster will struggle in the ERC Cup then too!

We have to play the hand we're dealt and we're up against a straight flush there.

There's no reason why we can't take the Tigers who hate playing us in Europe now and as for Toulon, well a home win against them and anything could happen. We've proven that we can face up to the very best (even with 14 men) and I believe the Ulster squad will look at that pool in a very positive way knowing they can do it. Fortress Ravenhill is a feared place on the rugby map so don't forget that.

Pete330v2 wrote:We have to play the hand we're dealt and we're up against a straight flush there.

There's no reason why we can't take the Tigers who hate playing us in Europe now and as for Toulon, well a home win against them and anything could happen. We've proven that we can face up to the very best (even with 14 men) and I believe the Ulster squad will look at that pool in a very positive way knowing they can do it. Fortress Ravenhill Kingspan Stadium is a feared place on the rugby map so don't forget that.

Fixed that typo for you Pete   

But Ulster didn't exactly have an easy group last season with Montpelier one of the form teams when Ulster went to France and beat them and Leicester may well be a weaker team next season with no Flood and Coles injury

marty2086 wrote:

Pete330v2 wrote:We have to play the hand we're dealt and we're up against a straight flush there.

There's no reason why we can't take the Tigers who hate playing us in Europe now and as for Toulon, well a home win against them and anything could happen. We've proven that we can face up to the very best (even with 14 men) and I believe the Ulster squad will look at that pool in a very positive way knowing they can do it. Fortress Ravenhill Kingspan Stadium is a feared place on the rugby map so don't forget that.

Fixed that typo for you Pete   

But Ulster didn't exactly have an easy group last season with Montpelier one of the form teams when Ulster went to France and beat them and Leicester may well be a weaker team next season with no Flood and Coles injury

Aaaaagh Marty I refuse to say or type the word Kinspan......damn it just did

Home games dont worry me 1 defeat in the last 5 years in the groups is testimony to that.

But will need to win somewhere other than Scarlets to be sure and I cant believe Leicester will be as poor again.

Mind you me and my mate are thinking a mid winter trip to the south of France sounds interesting  

PS Notch can you add S. Ferris to the Players OUT in the header please   

I don't think its too bad a draw actually - Munster's is worse.

Toulon won't fancy the kingspan, we have a good record against the Tigers and whatever about the Scarlets we can win our home games comfortably and 2 on the road.

I do agree that the League has to be high priority but wouldn't throw the towel in here although its hard to look past the big guns in England and France.

I wouldn't give up on Europe just yet... firstly, all the games are winnable apart from Toulon away, and secondly 3 runners-up will qualify from 5 groups in the new format instead of 2 from 6.