World Tour Finals Thread - Match & Prediction Thread

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

So the ATPs premier showpiece event hits the O2 on Sunday. The sixth showing at the O2 and yielded only 3 different winners. Very interesting this year. 3 virgin qualifiers in Cillic, Raonic and Nishikori. Can we see a new winner? Can Nishikori and Raonic win the biggest title of their careers to date? Federer will have an eye on the DC like his compatriot Wawrinka, though he is woefully out of form of late. Has Murray much left in the tank to win his first title here at the O2? Can Berdych do a Davydenko and strike out of nowhere? Will it be a routine Djokovic victory?

For me the 2 that qualify from each group will be:

Group A

1) Djokovic
2) Raonic

Group B

1) Murray
2) Federer

Djokovic/Murray final

Winner: Djokovic

[CaledonianCraig]

Ferrer's tenacity, dedication or fighting spirit coupled with supreme fitness are his strengths and has a solid all-round game but I have always felt he has lacked that killer shot or shot to die for.

Yes CC in the final analysis there is that one element missing.. I have such respect for the man and his work ethic, fighting to the bitter end no matter what, I am blinded to the fact you state.. shame I feel he could and should have won a major somewhere in his career.. something I would love to have seen before he retired but I fear that now will never be.

Yes it looks like his time has passed him by. He has had a great career though and been one of the most consistent performers in recent years but just falling short of that slam winning quality. He has got to the business end of many slams but has disappointed.

[CaledonianCraig]

Nishikori fires back to take the second set and at last we have a WTF 2014 match to go the distance.

[bogbrush]

So if Nish wins the 3rd Federer is top regardless. Might work to Murrays advantage for Kei to win this, since if he loses Andy still has to beat Federer anyway whereas if he wins Roger has something to achieve to finish top.

Not that this actually makes the slightest difference, I know

[sirfredperry]

Nishikori fires back to take the second set and at last we have a WTF 2014 match to go the distance.

Good to see a contest. Ferrer is the Duracell Bunny in that he keeps going. Nishi's wrist problem does not seem to be going away so David could get a win here.

[CaledonianCraig]

Nishikori is strong in the final sets so with a break up in the third you have to fancy him. If Nishi does win it means Andy must win in straight sets tonight or he is out. To be fair it does Andy a favour. In order to be in contention at this tournament he'd need to find the kind of form needed to beating Fed in straight sets anyway so it means it is time to stand up and be counted.

[Born Slippy]

Is that right CC? If Andy wins in 3, he will have the same set difference as Kei. Does it then come down to h2h (as Fed is already through on set difference in that scenario) rather than games difference?

[laverfan]

@H-n/CC... Ferrer is fabulous player, whether he wins a slam or not. He has helped Spain in DC when others were AWOL. I admire this man a lot.

[CaledonianCraig]

Is that right CC? If Andy wins in 3, he will have the same set difference as Kei. Does it then come down to h2h (as Fed is already through on set difference in that scenario) rather than games difference?

BS From the BBC site:-

If Murray defeats Federer in three sets and Nishikori defeats Ferrer in three sets, Federer wins the group and Nishikori qualifies second

[temporary21]

Murray basically needs to win in straights if Nish wins from here

[Silver]

Craig, does that mean that it goes down to H2H results before games won?

After all, if it's games difference first then Murray could still go through if he won 6-0, 6-7, 6-0 or something.

Edit: just saw BS asked the same thing, nevermind. Hopefully the Beeb are correct and not just disregarding a potential freak result.

[bogbrush]

It means Murray has to win in straight sets, for certain.

[laverfan]

Reminded of TMC 2008 when Murray beat Federer (with a back issue) when he did not need to. Will be Interesting to see how both of them handle it.

[CaledonianCraig]

Craig, does that mean that it goes down to H2H results before games won?

Basically, it has to be a straight sets win for Andy tonight or he is out.

[Silver]

Interesting. Means the rules have changed since 2009, when Murray was eliminated in the RR stage on games won (by Del Potro/Federer).

[laverfan]

I would not be surprised if Murray won in straight sets.

[MrInvisible]

Well we finally got a decent competitive match - I knew Ferrer wouldn't let us down. Impressed with how Nishikori closed it out - his mental toughness is one of his strengths these days.

I hope for the sake of the crowd that Murray wins the 1st set, or at least takes it to tie-break, otherwise the atmosphere could get pretty flat in what will essentially become a dead rubber.

[Silver]

Yeah, kudos to Ferru. It couldn't have been easy stepping in at the last moment, but he competed admirably. Kei did a great job too considering he'd already played two matches. Good quality tennis!

[DirectView2]

Just a quick question, had Ferrer won today against kei in St. sets and Andy lost to Fed, then how would that impact Ferrer's chances to semis?

Will Roanic's lost points and matches go against him, or just the matches and not the games?

[DirectView2]

Well we finally got a decent competitive match - I knew Ferrer wouldn't let us down.  Impressed with how Nishikori closed it out - his mental toughness is one of his strengths these days.

I hope for the sake of the crowd that Murray wins the 1st set, or at least takes it to tie-break, otherwise the atmosphere could get pretty flat in what will essentially become a dead rubber.

Don't underestimate Murray's chances, the match is 50-50 in my view.

[It Must Be Love]

How can Murray come first in the group ?

[DirectView2]

Craig, does that mean that it goes down to H2H results before games won?

Basically, it has to be a straight sets win for Andy tonight or he is out.

H2h results cannot be applied on a 3 way tie, coz each willl have a win over the other and hence on a 3 way tie it will be set won vs games won.

[CaledonianCraig]

How can Murray come first in the group ?

Murray will top the group if he wins in straight sets but if he wins in three sets he is out.

[temporary21]

How can Murray come first in the group ?

Murray will top the group if he wins in straight sets but if he wins in three sets he is out.

Aye its top or nothing. Federer will be playing proper for sure, not that he woudnt anyway but he does NOT want Novak in the semis

[CaledonianCraig]

Another thing - Andy's hasn't fired at all so far here so if he cannot explode into life and win in straight sets then it would be fair to say he won't have merited a semi-final spot.

Obviously, a win in three sets for him would mean elimination but it could mean a heck of a lot as in 200 more ranking points and the massive boost of a win against one of the top players in the world - a next step in Andy's rehabilitation.

[Henman Bill]

Singles Group B qualification scenarios
http://www.barclaysatpworldtourfinals.com/en/scores-centre/2014-scenarios
1) Regardless of score, if R. FEDERER defeats A. MURRAY then R. FEDERER wins the group and K. NISHIKORI qualifies 2nd.
2) If A. MURRAY defeats R. FEDERER in 2 then A. MURRAY wins the group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.
3) If A. MURRAY defeats R. FEDERER in 3 sets then R. FEDERER wins the group and K. NISHIKORI qualifies 2nd.

[Henman Bill]

So one thing to note here is that once Federer wins a set the rest of the match becomes a dead rubber with nothing at stake.

[Danny_1982]

Cannot for a second see a Murray straight sets win. He's not playing particularly well, and Federer is. Federer is moving better, serving better, and as if that wasn't tough enough he has the freedom of already being through.

If Andy wins a set I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Henman Bill]

Just a quick question, had Ferrer won today against kei in St. sets and Andy lost to Fed, then how would that impact Ferrer's chances to semis?

Will Roanic's lost points and matches go against him, or just the matches and not the games?

No, he does not get Raonic's record.

Ferrer had no chance. if points are tied, the first thing they go to, before sets, games, or head to head, is total matches played, and the more than better. Someone with 1 win and 2 defeats qualifies ahead of 1 win out of 1 match, and 2-0 W-L loses to 2-1 W-L for example. One of the dumbest rules out there - I believe Greg Rusedski was scuppered by it many years ago.

[CaledonianCraig]

Cannot for a second see a Murray straight sets win. He's not playing particularly well, and Federer is. Federer is moving better, serving better, and as if that wasn't tough enough he has the freedom of already being through.

If Andy wins a set I'll be pleasantly surprised.

I agree. I have watched tennis for long enough to realise that to beat Roger in straight sets you invariably have to be at the top of your game and Andy isn't. His consistency is all over the place and Roger may already have qualified but there is still a lot at stake for him. He'll want to win to ensure he avoids Novak in the semis and you always feel a bit of needle exists between Roger and Andy so he'll want to grind Andy's nose in it and come out top in the head-to-head between them is an added small bonus.

[hawkeye]

If Djokovic loses to Berdych and then loses in the semi's then isn't there something for Federer to play for? I thought he would be year end number one if he wins the WTF undefeated in those circumstances?

Also I thought if it is a tie between Murray and Kei in terms of matches won and lost doesn't their H2H count?

The situation with the alternate is confusing too. They play but they have no chance of progressing?

[Henman Bill]

Here are the rules:
http://www.barclaysatpworldtourfinals.com/en/event/semifinal-qualifying-procedure

If three players are tied on points then we go to number of sets. The key point is that, if after considering the numbers of sets, all three have identical records still, we go to % games. But, if after considering sets, one player has a superier sets record, while only two remain tied, then those two are separated by head to head and games % is not considered.

[Silver]

Craig, does that mean that it goes down to H2H results before games won?

Basically, it has to be a straight sets win for Andy tonight or he is out.

H2h results cannot be applied on a 3 way tie, coz each willl have a win over the other and hence on a 3 way tie it will be set won vs games won.

That's what happened in 2009, but in this case it doesn't matter because three players can't be on a 3-way tie.

If Murrays wins in straights: he and Federer are 4-2 each with Kei on 4-3. Murray tops the group on H2H.
If Murray wins in three: Federer is 5-2, with Murray and Kei both on 4-3, in which case Murray goes out on H2H.

So it does in fact go to H2H first. The only reason 2009 happened is because all three players had beaten each other in a triangle, so it had to go to games won.

Edit: In any case, HB just busted out the rule book so that makes it all a bit clearer!

Sadly, can't see Andy managing it. Federer is still playing for both points and the title, even if the #1 chance has gone.

[temporary21]

Ok question slightly tangential

Roger Vasselin and Benneteau are currently playing Dodig and Melo at the WTF. Soo France has an all France team... in the top 8

They havent been picked for the DC because.........

[hawkeye]

Ok question slightly tangential

Roger Vasselin and Benneteau are currently playing Dodig and Melo at the WTF. Soo France has an all France team... in the top 8

They havent been picked for the DC because.........

Whisper it quietly.... The French DC captain rates his singles players as better doubles players than players who play on the doubles tour.

[Henman Bill]

If Murray wins 2-0 we will produce a three way tie on matches won.
We then go to sets.
Murray would, hypothetically, have 4-2 on sets, Federer 4-2, Nishikori 4-3, which puts Nishikori out. To settle the placings, we go to head to head as we are left with a 2-way tie. Murray has beaten Federer, so he tops the group.

If Murray wins 2-1 we produce a three way tie on matches won.
We then go to sets.
Federer would hypothetically have 5-2 on sets, Murray 4-3 and Nishikori 4-3. That puts Federer top of the group. To settle the placings, we go to head to head. Nishikori beat Murray, so Murray is out.

If Murray wins 2-1 his elimination is decided by the fact it is a 2-way tie with Nishikori rather than a 3-way. If Federer had somehow also ended up with the same set record (not possible, but just as a pedant's curiosity) then the 3-way tie would remain after sets and be decided by games, which would likely lead to Murray progressing, since he will likely end up with better games % than Nishikori if he wins.

All in all, a bit tricky. In my view head to head is always what screws up 3-way permutations. You are better off leaving head to head out of it unless games are tied in my view. I've always thought so.

[Born Slippy]

Tend to agree HB. It would make far more sense to say when there is a 3 way tie it is set % then game %.

Hope Andy comes out firing tonight. A meek defeat in a match he has to win easily would be very frustrating. He's probably the one player on tour who can totally dismantle Roger's serve and that's what he needs to do tonight.

[Henman Bill]

If Djokovic loses to Berdych and then loses in the semi's then isn't there something for Federer to play for? I thought he would be year end number one if he wins the WTF undefeated in those circumstances?

Only if he also wins both Davis cup matches and his team win the tournament so he can get the Davis Cup bonus points. Even then, both his matches have to be live matches for him to get some bonus points he also needs as he has to win a certain number of live matches, as well as the tournament, to get those points. If either team takes a lead of 3-0 in the Davis Cup final then Federer cannot be year end number 1 no matter what happens at world tour finals.

Djokovic is already guaranteed to be ranked no 1 after the world tour finals. To achieve year end no 1, he needs one more win or Federer loss. Really, Federer's chances are hanging by a thread. He needs 2 Djokovic losses, 5 of his own wins, and not one of those matches can go against him, and he needs his team to win in the Davis Cup final, and his last match must be a live rubber. At this stage, Djokovic has about a 99% chance I'd say.

This is all down to my own calculation.

[hawkeye]

I can understand why H2H is used. It's a little odd to beat someone and then have to go home whilst they progress.

I'm also curious about the alternate. If an alternate plays after one match do they have no chance of progressing? The group becomes a battle of 3 players not 4? I can't see many circumstances were an alternate takes a players place before a ball has been struck. If that's the case I can understand the reluctance of players to turn up as an alternate. I can certainly see where Dimitrov was coming from. Why struggle to get a win off a Federer or Djokovic when your playing to please the crowd and they're playing a tournament.

[Henman Bill]

I assume they still get some prize money and a ranking points of 200 which is sizeable, about 5%+ of your total, for a player at that ranking level.

As an alternate, if you come in after only one match, and win 2 lose zero, you can go through, as long as you avoid one of those 3-way tie scenarios.

[Born Slippy]

I can understand why H2H is used. It's a little odd to beat someone and then have to go home whilst they progress.

I'm also curious about the alternate. If an alternate plays after one match do they have no chance of progressing? The group becomes a battle of 3 players not 4? I can't see many circumstances were an alternate takes a players place before a ball has been struck. If that's the case I can understand the reluctance of players to turn up as an alternate. I can certainly see where Dimitrov was coming from. Why struggle to get a win off a Federer or Djokovic when your playing to please the crowd and they're playing a tournament.

Except that if Murray beats Fed in 3 sets (the scenario we are describing) that is precisely what will happen.

As for the alternate, if they play and win 2 matches I would have thought they have a decent shot at qualifying. If the player their predecessor lost to wins all three or loses both others then they would definitely qualify. Otherwise, they still get 400 points and prize money which would both be very significant.

[lags72]

This is a big, big match coming up, easily the most intriguing of what has thus far been a less than enthralling event, so here's hoping for something lively.

IMO it's a tricky one to call. On the face of it, Federer comes in as favourite ; but ..... the level of Andy's improvement from first to second match has been pretty dramatic - in contrast to Fed, whose level, if anything, dropped a little v Nishikori - when he undoubtedly got the job done without any major fuss, but did not really impress (other than in fleeting moments).

I think Andy's confidence will be quite high after his last performance, and I'm giving him the edge - just. But no result would actually surprise me that much - except perhaps an easy victory in straights by Andy.

[It Must Be Love]

I don't think given what I've seen recently that this match will be much a contest. Hopefully so.

[lags72]

Packed to the Rafters (even though no sign of Pat) at the O2 - which is very rarely the case for other indoor tournies elsewhere in the world - certainly not for an arena of this size.

Fingers crossed for a good show !

[socal1976]

Come on Andy whip his arse and take his cream colored leisure suit as a war trophy.

[Jahu]

Fed in 2 sets.

Come onnnn, fix his back and man him up.

[Jahu]

Fleming saying that was the worst second serve on Pro Tour at 76mph, and he gets the point.

Fed serve aint good either so far.

[Guest]

Aces galore!!

[Jahu]

Break him NOW.

[Guest]

That's the worst FH he has hit in a while!

[Guest]

Right Masterchef it is!

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