Ulster 2015/2016

First topic message reminder :

Thought i would give ol' GC a helping hand and try and get Ulster types looking inward at what has been a tricky season and looking forward to next season and how we should improve. Dont have time to put down all my own theories but will do so later. This thread is a matawalu free zone btw!

Would VDM and Williams salary not pretty much add up to a marquee signing salary though?

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think of the level that Piutau is getting. This is the one occasion I would be absolutely delighted to be on the losing side of the argument here btw

For me, it would raise the issue of salary caps in the Pro12. Top-ups for national team players are one thing and should obviously be exempt from any salary cap, but if we could afford to bring in Piutau, Pienaar and another player of that magnitude it becomes too unbalanced with what the other teams can afford.

Balance is in the best interests of everybody in the league... The difficulty is finding the balance between allowing the complete ineptitude of the regions as business entities to set any salary cap too low for us to compete on the European front, with trying to create a level playing field... because of course European Rugby sells the most season tickets and feeds into wider interest, just because it captures the imagination in a way the league doesn't.

I'm a big fan of salary caps but as the controversy in England shows they are difficult to implement when you have the kind of money that exists in France. If only a European Salary Cap could be established, along with foreign player quotas, we would be on track to having a real quality set of competitions.

Ulster are selling out nearly every home game, Ireland have won the last two 6 Nations, we are about to go into a World Cup and we are into the second season of the Sky deal.

It could well be that Ulster are at least expecting to be working on a bigger budget next season due to one or all of the above reasons

Notch wrote:Thats a pretty disingenuous statement. Here's a list of the players we have in the squad besides Ludik who can/have played fullback; Jared Payne, Stuart Olding, Tommy Bowe, Craig Gilroy, Peter Nelson. Thats some quality cover in my opinion. If Ludik left tomorrow I think we could cover that position until the end of the season, no worries.

I would argue that Jared Payne is better than Ludik, Peter Nelson, Craig Gilroy and Stuart Olding are most certainly better fullbacks than Reidy, Ross, Taggart etc. are back rows and probably better than Faloon is as a back row, if not at least as good. I think there's more mileage in Trimble and Bowes respective tanks than there is in Roger Wilsons.

Where the IRFU demands we play Henderson and Payne is crucial. For Ireland, they are considered as being a lock and a centre respectively. We have great depth in both positions with Peter Browne looking decent early on and Alan O'Connor coming through behind Franco and Tuohy, centre depth is well documented. Our need is greatest in the back row and at fullback. If we are not allowed to move Payne back thats one thing, but after the RWC guys like Marhsall, Olding and McCloskey will be pushing Henshaw out to 13 lessening the need for him to play there all the time whereas Henderson will remain essential to replacing O'Connell. I still anticipate Ireland will need Payne as a centre for a while longer, but surely the IRFU could have been persuaded to give us a little leeway there and save 350k a year.

We can probably put out a team without an NIQ lock in the near future with O'Connor coming through plus Tuohy, Browne and Stevenson (and Henderson now looking like O'Connells partner for the RWC). We all anticipate that that is where the cut will come.

My issue is getting a marquee back row to replace Williams and retaining Ludik, who is a very good player surrounded by other very good players in a back line with great strength in depth, would be a much better use of resources than cutting Ludik, bringing in a very expensive fullback and then trying to find a decent replacement for Williams on a Ludik-sized salary.

It's not a disingenuous statement at all - it's based on what Logan (and Humphreys) said about the future of Ulster - in short two test players for EVERY position. Ludik isn't a Test player, nor are any of the others you list as fullbacks so Ulster don't even have one there never mind two. While I rate someone like Nelson highly he is a work in progress, not the finished article. As for Payne playing 15, your speculation is that he will return there, but I suspect that may have already been explored by Ulster and isn't happening.

I also have misgivings about Diack and Wilson but they are capped at Test level as are Henry and Henderson + Williams at Junior AB level. Judging by the yardstick which Logan/Humphreys created there is far more quality in the back row than at fullback.

I have been banging on about Ulster's backrow shortcomings since Pollock had to retire, but I am increasingly convinced that the forwards coaching is the real issue rather than the mix of personnel. Ulster just aren't bringing forwards through and don't seem to recognise the ones they have like Sean Dougal.

I'd be all for moving Payne back to what is his best position for Ulster. He works at 15 in a way he'll never perform at 13 for us and with our glut of centres it's criminal to block their places. If one of our young guns can really make the 13 shirt their own during the RWC period I'd like to think it's Jared's to win back rather than the IRFU's to demand.

Well, I can't see Ulster winning any trophies anytime soon. In fact I think we are going to have a tough season. An injury to Henry or Henderson (who are already going to be unavailable a lot with Ireland) and we are completely screwed. Our back row isn't good enough for the Pro 12 never mind the Champions Cup.

It doesn't matter how good our backline may be, if they don't have quality ball to work with, they will look average.

Right now we are completely reliant on Stuart McCloskey, he provides some much needed momentum going forward. Take him out of the equation and I can't see our backline doing a whole lot of damage.

Hang on. Wasn't Ludik the greatest thing since Keira Knightley themed Post-It notes last season? What happened?

Ludik is great, and Payne is best at centre in the current squad, regardless of whether or not he is a better fullback than Ludik.

We had a bad day yesterday, but the issue isn't the quality of the players. The issue is that most of them couldn't be bothered turning up. Another issue has to be the coaching. We were terrible yesterday. Failing really badly in the basics, and those failings cost us at least a couple of tries.

Ludik is a lot better than he's being made out to be here. To say Diack and Wilson are test quality because of a few caps against Georgia, Japan and a tour to Argentina where a good few first choices were rested is wishful thinking. Put it like this; in the back three as a unit we have several real test quality players. In the centres we have several real test quality players- to the extent that we still have test quality players in our back line when the internationals are away. In the back row we have two- Henderson and Henry- and little depth behind that. And we might have to use one at lock.

Ludik is a very good, solid player, I think an underrated player on here, and with the quality that exists around him there is absolutely no problem with him playing for us at Heineken Cup level, right into the knockout stages. The back row is not the same. You can look at fullback in isolation and say that our need is greater there from a first XV, but looking at units its obvious that if we retain Ludik we still have an extremely strong unit in that back three whereas we are not so well-equipped up front.

I agree that the coaching of the back line is considerably better than the coaching of the forwards in open play- I've been happy with the set piece and the maul, but breakdown hasn't been so good.

Agreed Munchkin, we know what sort of quality players we have but that yesterday lies with the leadership on and off the pitch. Our onfield captains were anonymous, a bit like the coaching the players had received.

Has Marshall lost a lot of bulk or is it just next to McCloskey he looks smaller?

The talk of back row and test standard has to be a separate topic and is totally irrelevant to the loss the other yesterday.

Just which pro12 teams are turning out sides with fantastic quality back rows during the world cup??

The reality is that despite the rugby world cup, we are able to field players who are surely better than most pro12 counterparts. At least across most of the 15 - and the rest are at least equally mediocre as there counterparts.

Players like Herring, Herbst, Tuohy, Williams (historically) and McCloskey, Marshall, Ludik and Gilroy are a fine example of top quality players to call upon during a world cup.

Yesterday was just not good enough. And once again i find myself asking is the plan to effectively waste two seasons to eventually have Les Kiss' full attention really worth it?

Convince me that Ulster have made the best coaching choice by sacking Anscombe last season. I still don't buy it. And it's very disappointing for myself as a home tv viewer. I assume for those handing over their hard earned cast to Kingspan on a regular basis must be failing quite let down by poor efforts and seemingly poor coaching.

I feel like we've had one-off performances this bad under each of the previous regimes all the way back to Alan Solomons. I feel like this game is pretty similar in performance to the one we lost 28-23 to Cardiff Blues under Anscombe in 2014, and pretty similar in terms of fan reaction; there were other poor days when he was there too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26772311

I saw somebody else say we never saw such basic errors under McLaughlin; I don't think that is true either. I remember another defeat to Scarlets which was a fourth straight loss and marked by absolutely terrible skills and a lack of confidence.

http://www.skysports.com/rugby-union/scarlets-vs-ulster/report/48493

I'm sure you're looking at this and saying 'Sure, maybe the older coaches were no better than what we have now but we still haven't made much progress.' And I agree. I think the coaching team is neither better nor worse than Anscombes or McLaughlins. After all, most of the current coaches have actually been very influential voices in both those regimes. There's been a lot of back room continuity from McLaughlin to Anscombe to Doak. But I am hopeful that Kiss will make progress when he arrives, more so than settling for what was out there immediately when Anscombe left. I don't think post-Anscombe the coaches that were immediately available where really better than who we have whereas I think Kiss has the potential to be better. Whether it's right or not I don't know but I think we were on a downward curve under Anscombe after his excellent first year and I don't think he would have us looking any better.

I don't feel let down because even though I spend money on my season ticket etc. they don't owe me anything. I can always vote with my feet. But I don't think I ever would, unless a work opportunity came outside NI that couldn't be ignored. Don't get me wrong, I used to get very down and depressed after a defeat like this. But why torture myself? I love going to Ravenhill, I love the sport of rugby union. I want us to be successful as much as any fan but I intend to derive as much enjoyment from it as possible regardless.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Well, I can't see Ulster winning any trophies anytime soon. In fact I think we are going to have a tough season. An injury to Henry or Henderson (who are already going to be unavailable a lot with Ireland) and we are completely screwed. Our back row isn't good enough for the Pro 12 never mind the Champions Cup.

It doesn't matter how good our backline may be, if they don't have quality ball to work with, they will look average.

Ulster should be looking at Dom Ryan. A quality backrow who might not get too many games in Leinster especially now with Conan, Van Der Flier and Leavy coming through as well as Ruddock coming back from injury soon.

There is a crazy amount of depth and quality in both the Munster and Leinster back row. I would be shocked if Ulster hadn't approached a few players for both teams. I don't think any of them want to move, they are all fighting for a place in their respective province.

Leinster:

Heaslip, O'Brien, Ruddock, Murphy, McLaughlin, Ryan, Conan, Van Der Flier, Leavy

Munster:

O'Mahony, Stander, O'Donnell, O'Callaghan, Copeland, O'Donoghue, Coughlan

Munster may be lacking a few openside flankers though.

Notch wrote:Ludik is a lot better than he's being made out to be here. To say Diack and Wilson are test quality because of a few caps against Georgia, Japan and a tour to Argentina where a good few first choices were rested is wishful thinking. Put it like this; in the back three as a unit we have several real test quality players. In the centres we have several real test quality players- to the extent that we still have test quality players in our back line when the internationals are away. In the back row we have two- Henderson and Henry- and little depth behind that. And we might have to use one at lock.

Ludik is a very good, solid player, I think an underrated player on here, and with the quality that exists around him there is absolutely no problem with him playing for us at Heineken Cup level, right into the knockout stages. The back row is not the same. You can look at fullback in isolation and say that our need is greater there from a first XV, but looking at units its obvious that if we retain Ludik we still have an extremely strong unit in that back three whereas we are not so well-equipped up front.

I agree that the coaching of the back line is considerably better than the coaching of the forwards in open play- I've been happy with the set piece and the maul, but breakdown hasn't been so good.

Not wishful thing at all Notch - Test caps aren't qualified by who the opponent is. Irrespective of who the backrow caps were won against the other full backs (including Ludik) don't have any against Georgia, Japan, Uruguay or Namibia or anyone else for that matter. I'm not saying the backrow is hunky dory, far from it, just pointing out that the decision to sign Piutau is not "absolute madness".

It isn't absolute madness; he is a quality player, but I don't think it was a smart signing.

If Ulster have signed Piutau with the intent of adding real strength to the backrow, then it's an excellent signing. We won't know the truth of that for a few months yet. If this a Kiss signing then I have to believe that Kiss knows what he is doing, and Piutau's signing will make sense to all, and before the start of next season.

Just read that it's 3 years to the day since Nevin Spence passed. I remember how absolutely shocking that was at the time and it's still terribly sad.

Very sad indeed - great player and am totally convinced he'd have had a great career for Ulster and Ireland, based on what he'd achieved already.

Ulster Rugby have done a great job of honoring his memory.

http://www.ulsterrugby.com/News/LatestNews/TabId/149/ArtMID/793/ArticleID/3877/Nevin-Spence-Always-with-us.aspx

Reading those I remember watching him at Deramore the night before he died playing for the Ravens against Munster A. He was just back from injury but wasn't holding back. He looked far better than Hanrahan in midfield that night and everyone was excited to see him back.
I also remember seeing him come on in a pre-season game for his first appearance for Ulster. I overheard Humphreys and McLaughlin talking about bringing him on and it went something like 'What about Spence, is it time yet? (reply) Absolutely!'. I could hear the excitement in their voices, they were like kids with a new toy who couldn't wait to try it.
The Nevin Spence Centre is a testament to the values and sportsmanship he lived by, and Logan's target of having every kid in Ulster pass through it at least twice before they leave school shows what an outstanding role model he was.

Going to try and explain player movements next year, and beyond, as far as I understand it.
As you will see it is heavily overlayed with ifs, buts and maybes.

The IRFU intention is to reduce 4+1 to 3+1 from 2016-17.
The restriction re only 1 player per position in Ireland as a whole is dead in the water.

On that premise Ulster will have Pienaer, Piatau, (unnamed backrower) + Herbst
So Ludik, Williams and de Merwe are out the door.
Simple........well not exactly

To understand why it is complicated we have to go back to one of David Nuciforas remits - to move players around between Provinces when it suits Irish rugby as a whole.
This is not going well with respect to Ulster. We already have had a couple of instances of Leinster backrowers preferring to be 6,7,8th choice in Dublin as opposed to 4,5,6th choice in Belfast and refusing to move. I would not hold your breath for that to change next year.
Therefore there is a growing recognition that Ulster need to be treated differently to Leinster and Munster and we may well be allowed 3 +2.

So we will look for a 'Project' backrower as well as the above and Ludik, de Merwe and Williams still go ......well...maybe.
As I understand it if we sign a marquee backrower and a Project backrower of sufficient quality Williams and de Merwe are definitely out the door. However if we do not find a Project backrower of the required quality (a lot better than the likes of Ross or Reidy) we will have the option of one of those 2 players for 1 year.
(as an aside Hendersons contract is a Branch contract this year and a central contract from next year (same arrangement as Payne) and as consequence he will be a 2nd rower full time next year, except in very exceptional circumstances)

The other issue is our excess of very good centres - firstly, McCloskey, Cave, Olding and Arnold are going nowhere under any circumstances all nailed on for 2016-17.

That leaves Marshall and Payne.
If and it is a big if we do happen to arrange a swap for a decent backrower it will be one of those that goes.
If it is Payne then we will, probably, be allowed to keep Ludik as he will be qualified in 2017-18.


As you can see as clear as mud - what do I think???
No swap so Marshall and Payne both stay - unless Marshall chooses to leave.
Ludik and Williams go and if we find a half decent Project backrower so will de Merwe.

The marquee backrower we sign I expect to be top draw

I see well I think I see or do I lol well I will see next year I guess lol Good to have you back though Geoff for the info

geoff999rugby wrote:The other issue is our excess of very good centres - firstly, McCloskey, Cave, Olding and Arnold are going nowhere under any circumstances all nailed on for 2016-17.

That leaves Marshall and Payne.
If and it is a big if we do happen to arrange a swap for a decent backrower it will be one of those that goes.
If it is Payne then we will, probably, be allowed to keep Ludik as he will be qualified in 2017-18.

Sounds like a terrible deal for Ulster.

Ulster risk losing Payne who is a Test centre and world class full back, or Marshall who has also looked to be Test class in return for a "decent" backrower. Ulster need an 8, so if Marshall is to be swapped the "decent" backrower should be either Jordi Murphy or Jack Conan. If it is Payne it should be for either O'Brien or Stander.

I should clarify if it is Payne it will have to be a player good enough for the 1st XV, if Marshall about Diack level I would guess i.e a good cover player who will not let you down.

One thing causing concern is the age profile of the team.
From 4 to 9 we are, largely, a team of old men and to be honest not much coming through.
We keep signing players to fill gaps but to honest nearly all are not good enough.

Just think in a few years time - Tuohy, Best, Stevenson, Henry, Wilson are all the wrong side of 30 and Diack will be in a few weeks.

Talking of retirements - I am convinced Humphreys has lost his mojo and cant wait to retire - I expect to see very little of him this year.
As to Windsor lets just say he wouldn't make my top 4 10's at the club.
He was only signed because Olding was injured - he would have been our 10 in these opening games if fit.
On better news he was out with lads on Friday and looking great, making much better progress than expected - outside chance of being back before Christmas.

Also see that Williams did not play for personal reason, I don't know what they are, but I hope has not gone and done something stupid (at the same time that would. obviously, be better than a family tragedy)
Another player has had some sought of warning from the police for his anti-social player.
When I started this post I wasn't going to name him - but why not its Roger Wilson - the one truly unpleasant player at the club.
A bit of tool if I am honest

Great news regarding Stuart Olding, but to be honest I will be wincing every time I see him go into contact. Two cruciate ligament injuries within a few years is certainly not good for any professional player. Will he truly recover from such injuries?

Fingers crossed he can get his fitness back to scratch and have an injury free career. He is an exceptional player.

Cheers for the info Geoff - confirming my belief that we are still targeting a top class backrower as well as signing Piatau.

As for Marshall or Payne leaving - I think we have to think carefully though. Some points:
- Cave has only a few years left
- We haven't fully seen if Arnold can be great, or just average.
- Marshall has historical concussion problems
- Olding has had a bad injury which is fairly common to re-occur
- Payne is not Ulster born and bred and I'd doubt he would turn down money for love of NI like Pienaar did. He could be lured away at any time.

Fingers crossed we will be allowed that second project spot, and fingers crossed it will be a decent one.

That said - Reidy did a decent job the other night...

I would far rather see Marshall leave than Payne.

However given Oldings injury profile and Cave more on the Ireland radar these days I don't know if we have as much depth as it looks.

Pienaar starting to look his age a bit too.

Maybe stick Piutau at 7, McCloskey to 8, Payne at 6 and move Olding to scrum half.

It worked with Nelson to 10, so why not!

As I said my money is both will stay because I simply don't believe Nucifora will be able to persuade a decent backrower to come north.
I honestly believe that the concept of moving players around the provinces is close to dead in the water when it comes to Ulster.

Also as an aside the Payne is contract till 2017 anyway.
Marshall will only leave if he believes his chances of playing for Ireland have disappeared , and maybe not even then.
No player will move to another province without the consent of the player leaving - we don't compete against each other

In simple terms my judgement is Piatau comes then Ludik leave
Williams will go and be replaced by a better player
It is a Project backrower of de Merwe - given that Henderson will be a Lock next year, my money is on the former, but if we cant find anyone decent de Merwe may just stay.

geoff999rugby wrote:As I said my money is both will stay because I simply don't believe Nucifora will be able to persuade a decent backrower to come north.
I honestly believe that the concept of moving players around the provinces is close to dead in the water when it comes to Ulster.

geoff is there any reasons ever given for why some Irish players don't fancy playing for Ulster?

marty2086 wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:As I said my money is both will stay because I simply don't believe Nucifora will be able to persuade a decent backrower to come north.
I honestly believe that the concept of moving players around the provinces is close to dead in the water when it comes to Ulster.

geoff is there any reasons ever given for why some Irish players don't fancy playing for Ulster?

Well the weather isn't great for one thing.....

I think certain players just love Dublin too much.

rodders wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:As I said my money is both will stay because I simply don't believe Nucifora will be able to persuade a decent backrower to come north.
I honestly believe that the concept of moving players around the provinces is close to dead in the water when it comes to Ulster.

geoff is there any reasons ever given for why some Irish players don't fancy playing for Ulster?

Well the weather isn't great for one thing.....

I forgot that Dublin and Limerick were Irelands answer to the Caribbean, that explains Donncha O'Callaghans year round tan

I can't help but think that Belfast's image is still tarnished (undeservingly) by the annual silly season of stand-offs etc which didn't even happen this year. I must only really kick off when we get decent weather Do our siblings from across the border still see the north as being a little dodgy. I know one colleague of mine who got his current job up here was a little nervous as to what the reception would be to his southern accent. He was very pleasantly surprised but is this a factor?

Pete, as a free stater living in the north, i would have to say that the reputation is still tarnished. I don't think undeserveredly at times. There is still too much nonsense going on. I have to say i would have the same issues regarding the accent at times.

Sure you'd have trouble with the accent down in Toulon or Grenoble too

NI is going down the toilet in fairness, it's nearly as bad as Munster these days so you can't blame folks for being apprehensive.

I would say that any apprehension is based on a false perception, but let's not talk NI politics on these boards. Depressing stuff. No, if we are going to be depressed, we should be depressed for the right reasons. Like Ulster getting stuffed by Edinburgh at the weekend.

Munchkin wrote:I would say that any apprehension is based on a false perception, but let's not talk NI politics on these boards. Depressing stuff. No, if we are going to be depressed, we should be depressed for the right reasons. Like Ulster getting stuffed by Edinburgh at the weekend.

That's not something to worry about Id be more focused on the league game the following week

marty2086 wrote:

Munchkin wrote:I would say that any apprehension is based on a false perception, but let's not talk NI politics on these boards. Depressing stuff. No, if we are going to be depressed, we should be depressed for the right reasons. Like Ulster getting stuffed by Edinburgh at the weekend.

That's not something to worry about Id be more focused on the league game the following week

Cardiff at home

Munchkin wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

Munchkin wrote:I would say that any apprehension is based on a false perception, but let's not talk NI politics on these boards. Depressing stuff. No, if we are going to be depressed, we should be depressed for the right reasons. Like Ulster getting stuffed by Edinburgh at the weekend.

That's not something to worry about Id be more focused on the league game the following week

Cardiff at home

I mean the league game against Edinburgh, its not until the 16th, Cardiff is the 23rd

but I said 'Edinburgh'

Sorry, my fault, marty. I was trying to funny with a predicted loss against Edinburgh, not that I don't think it can't happen.

My funny doesn't translate well, online. I need one of Rodders, Fly or ME, to give me lessons

Not me, I'm depressed now at the thought of losing to Edinburgh.

hmmmm.....ok.....Ulster are going to destroy Edinburgh was a dazzling display of speed, skill and power








...did it work o0

Munchkin wrote:but I said 'Edinburgh'

Sorry, my fault, marty. I was trying to funny with a predicted loss against Edinburgh, not that I don't think it can't happen.

My funny doesn't translate well, online. I need one of Rodders, Fly or ME, to give me lessons

Were you doing typing with a Free State accent?

I haven't seen Edinburgh this season how have they been playing? I know they beat Leinster with IRFU employee Peter Fitzgibbon as ref so they must have played really well with the odds stacked against them like that

I don't even know what a free state is. I was charged for my for shopping the last time I was in Dublin. Maybe they just charge Nordies

Haven't watched Edinburgh, myself. Seem to be on a decent run though, and they did come close to beating us the last time we travelled over there. They should have beat us really. Going by the defeat to Scarlets, with us just not turning up to play, my confidence of a win is fairly shaky. On paper, we should win, but.....