French Open 2015 Day 13 - Let's get ready to mumble....

....to ourselves in Murray-like fashion.

OK.

I felt very optimistic about Novak beating Rafa but I feel pretty much the opposite about today's match.

I've long had a hunch that Andy may scupper Novak's RG dream this year and this was the predicted match that I was most worried about.

I know all the stats would make Novak the favourite but it's just a gut feeling I can't shake.

Hot, humid, rain delays, pressure, an in-form opponent... there's potential for it to go very wrong.

I'm not going to play at reverse-jinxing and say that Novak will lose. But after 5 rounds of feeling quite relaxed and not too much of a fanboy, I'm much more knotted today!

HM Murdoch wrote:OK.

Wonder what Brad said to upset him so badly.

HM Murdoch wrote:I felt very optimistic about Novak beating Rafa but I feel pretty much the opposite about today's match.

I've long had a hunch that Andy may scupper Novak's RG dream this year and this was the predicted match that I was most worried about.

I know all the stats would make Novak the favourite but it's just a gut feeling I can't shake.

Hot, humid, rain delays, pressure, an in-form opponent... there's potential for it to go very wrong.

I'm not going to play at reverse-jinxing and say that Novak will lose. But after 5 rounds of feeling quite relaxed and not too much of a fanboy, I'm much more knotted today!

Novak's a very strong favourite for me, but if Andy can put in a great performance and keep it tight, I think nerves could become a big factor. There's undoubtedly more pressure on Novak and that could tell.

Novak in 3. Very similar score to the Rafa match I think.

Stan in 5 in the other match. Atmosphere will be amazing though.

No way.

Andy in 5.

Stan in 4.

JuliusHMarx wrote:....to ourselves in Murray-like fashion.

f***king w**k*r HIT THE F****G Ball YOU STUPID T**T

:handovermouth:


Is that about right?

Murray has more chance than people think, he will attack Djokovic, but he has to do it the way Djokovic did Nadal - get inside the baseline and drive him deep & wide point after point.

He who gets to stand inside the baseline wins the match.

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Novak's a very strong favourite for me, but if Andy can put in a great performance and keep it tight, I think nerves could become a big factor. There's undoubtedly more pressure on Novak and that could tell.

"Swaggering Andy" i.e. the confident version, is a match up that always bothers Novak. It looks to me like that player is back on the scene.

Novak has the tools to beat him, no doubt. It's just that Andy has the ability to make Novak a bit crazy. His game has really got under his skin in the past.

It says a lot about my years of watching Novak that his recent relative calm doesn't make me think he's changed but rather that he is due a meltdown!

As an aside, I'm expecting a terrible game.

Loooooong rallies that are exciting at first but by the end of the 2nd set, you just want it to be over.

Chuck in possible rain interruptions and I can't see this one being a great spectacle.

HMM - I think I know what you mean about Djoko today. How he would have wished that the Rafa match was the final.
Instead, he has the toughest opponent (according to current form) he could face in the semis, knowing that it could still all go horribly wrong.
I think Djoko will win (but then I thought Rafa would win the q-f) but he'll be nervous and I expect that even if Andy loses he will be a tougher nut to crack than in some of their previous matches.
We're really into 2009 RG territory here. Back then, Fed faced Haas in the q-fs and del Potro in the s-f knowing that Rafa was out and this was his - probably only - chance to win the French.
Fed almost lost to Haas and had to come from behind to beat del Potro before the straight sets win in the final. But it was tough and it could be tough for Djoko today, too.

sirfredperry wrote:   We're really into 2009 RG territory here. Back then, Fed faced Haas in the q-fs and del Potro in the s-f knowing that Rafa was out and this was his - probably only - chance to win the French.
Fed almost lost to Haas and had to come from behind to beat del Potro before the straight sets win in the final. But it was tough and it could be tough for Djoko today, too.

This was in my mind too.

There was talk about Fed's RG09 on another thread and it reminded just how close that was. Pushed to limit by Del Potro, that inside out forehand to save going 2-0 and a break in the third down to Haas... boy, that title turned on narrow margins.

Federer won that title because he was the best player in the draw and was mentally tough enough to navigate stormy waters.

Novak is the best player in the draw but is he mentally tough enough?

We'll soon find out!

HM Murdoch wrote:As an aside, I'm expecting a terrible game.

Loooooong rallies that are exciting at first but by the end of the 2nd set, you just want it to be over.

Chuck in possible rain interruptions and I can't see this one being a great spectacle.

Yes, not sure they've ever served up a spectacle - there's just no contrast.

Sorry but I am the opposite to HM Murdoch. Sure Andy is in the clay form of his life but there were still peaks and troughs in his match against Ferrer. That will not get the job done against a Novak fuelled high on confidence after beating Rafa hands-down. For Andy to win he will need the following pre-requisites: First serve is on fire, he is aggressive, he faces a Novak suddely struck by a realisation of how close he is to a career slam and freezes to a degree and that Andy maintains focus and belief throughout.

If this were on grass I'd feel so much more positive but hopefully it will be a match that won't completely deflate Andy should he lose with the grass court season just around the corner. Gut and head says Novak in three. Heart says Murray in four.

Going Andy in Five.
Stan in four.

Wawrinka to live up to my predictions of him being a two time major champion.

Realistically
Djokovic in three
Wawrinka in five

Djokovic to wipe the floor with Wawrinka

Craig has it right though. It doesn't really matter how well Murray plays, if Djokovic is switched on, there's only one winner. Djokovic is either gonna need to be on a comedown from Wednesdays high, or get all Gollum thinking that the precious is in sight.

As for the other semi that should be very interesting. I just feel Stan is more proven in the big matches of his career than Jo. Stan to win in four for me.

I think Andy will put up a good fight. But I don't think he'll win. This is still clay and despite all the improvements he's made you still don't get the absolute best of Andy on this surface. And it would need the absolute best of Andy to win this match.

He's moving way better, and playing up the court more often, but it's still not completely natural to him. I think Novak in 4 sets, but Andy heads into Wimbledon brimming with confidence and I think he might win there.

Murray's playing well and progressing on the clay surface but I don't think THIS Djokovic can be beaten on clay and not by Murray anyway, perhaps top Nadal, prime Federer or other clay greats, no one that is around now imo. It remains to be seen what's happening in Wimbledon to get a flavour for his Grand slam chances which are good imo.

Tsonga - Wawry is uncallable, on the day each one could either play great and win this easily or do the opposite.

Forecast has high chance of storms and showers in Paris from mid-afternoon onwards.

Djoko-Murray almost certain to be interrupted.

They'd be better putting them on Lenglen and starting earlier.

The Stan-JWT semi is tough to call. You could make a convincing case for either. Stan is probably slight favourite given his big-match experience over the last 18 months.
But it aint so long ago that JWT took some big names out at a 1,000-point Masters. Stan in five, for me.

For Djoko v Murray, I have it about 50% of the time being an easy Djoko win, 40% a Djoko win after a battle and a 10% chance for Andy. I think for Andy to win he'll have to play very well and have Novak drop level a bit.

Stan v Tsonga is interesting - both are rather streaky players who appear to be in good form this tournament. I think Stan should win because he is more consistent off both sides, while Jo's backhand (especially on the serve return) can go AWOL. Jo does though have the advantage of the crowd on his side.

Stan is a better player than Jo, and there is less pressure on him. Then again, both of those things were true of Nish in the last round and Jo won!

With the French crowd on his side this really could go any way. But I will go with Stan in 4 sets. Cracking day of tennis coming up.

Wawrinka- Djokovic final for me although I would like it to be the opposite. Just think that Novak will continue to be too strong for Andy. Hope he puts up a good fight though. Wawrinka seems to have his confidence back in this tournament and when he is on song he is a match for anyone (even Djokovic). He needs to get on top early and quieten the crowd. Likewise a good start for Jo would give him momentum. Think Stan will come through though.

I predict a tight match between Djokovic and Murray. I think the fact that Murray is in his best ever form on clay and that coupled with the huge expectation on the shoulders of Novak will make this a tight match.

The good thing for Novak is he has won their last 7 meetings including two meetings in slams. However if Murray comes out all guns blazing and serving well, this could be very close indeed.

Wawrinka vs Tsonga will depend on what wawrinka turns up. I think if they both play to their potential, stan will take this one. It could work out in two ways for Tsonga, he either gets inspired by the crowd behind him or the weight of expectation will destroy him like it did last time he reached this stage against Ferrer if memory serves me well.

Could be two tight matches though. Never thought I would say this but I have been very impressed by Murrays form on clay!

sirfredperry wrote:HMM - I think I know what you mean about Djoko today. How he would have wished that the Rafa match was the final.
  Instead, he has the toughest opponent (according to current form) he could face in the semis, knowing that it could still all go horribly wrong.
  I think Djoko will win (but then I thought Rafa would win the q-f) but he'll be nervous and I expect that even if Andy loses he will be a tougher nut to crack than in some of their previous matches.
  We're really into 2009 RG territory here. Back then, Fed faced Haas in the q-fs and del Potro in the s-f knowing that Rafa was out and this was his - probably only - chance to win the French.
  Fed almost lost to Haas and had to come from behind to beat del Potro before the straight sets win in the final. But it was tough and it could be tough for Djoko today, too.

Not sure I totally agree with the 09 parallels. With prime Rafa being such a beast on clay and Fed's age and general match-up disadvantages, it's not at all surprising if Fed, at the time, felt like that was his one chance. Sure, with Rafa out the way, this is a great chance for Novak to complete the career slam, but something pretty seismic will have to happen in the world of tennis for Novak not to be there or there abouts next year too.

Having said that, there's no doubt the elusive RG crown means a lot to Novak. It just remains to be seen whether he embraces his destiny and powers unstoppably to the finish or starts to flap and ends up vulnerable to a Murray ambush.

If Novak wins the first set, I think it will be tough for Murray to win three of the next four sets.

If Murray wins the first set, I'm going to turn off all media, sit in a corner and check the score in 4 hours time (so I can find out how things stand during the third set! Boom boom!)

How much store should we be putting on the 7 match losing streak? A good chunk of those came when Andy was some way off his best and, frankly, struggling to beat anyone in the top 10, let alone Novak. That's certainly not the case now. In fact, I think I'm right in saying that, so far this year, the only top 10 player Andy has lost to is Novak, so he's probably something like 8-0 against the rest of the chasing pack.

Of course, Novak just isn't losing to anyone at the moment and is generally looking a class apart. So, even if Andy has a blinder, I think he will need some assistance from Novak to get the win. I'm hoping for a spate of crazy drop shots like at Wimby 13.

Re the other match, my money would be on Stan, but it's really a tough one to call, particularly with the crowd factor. Stan's A game is more of a threat than Jo's, so I'm pretty certain Novak (and Andy) would much prefer Jo in the final.

Tsonga looking like he is hitting big. Stan in the past has outhit Jo, maybe not today. 15-40.

Tsonga was lucky to get out of jail after being two sets up and then losing two. He has no such luxury v Wawrinka. Wawrinka in 3 or 4.

Murray is very different than Djokovic v Nadal. I am surprised it is the later match, because it is likely to stretch longer than the first SF. Djokovic in 4.

Good hold from Stan. Really entertaining first game.

What a bh stan to break!

I think for Andy v Novak we need to remember their clashes this season, both of which have been high quality close encounters but have ended with Novak sprinting away due to Andy falling off a cliff physically/mentally/both.

On this surface, on a day like today, there will be a need to stay in it for the long run. Andy hasn't been able to do that against Novak this season. He gets mentally and/or physically outlasted by Novak. That has to be a factor today.

Very enjoyable first set of tennis. High quality. Stan takes it!

Stan, give him a set, for local sake

So first blood to Stan the Man. Looks to be serving well . Danny 1982 - Djoko aint so hot in the heat, so to speak. He was not at his best in very warm weather in the final at Wimbledon in 2013 and it could be argued that he does well at the AO cos he's normally playing at night.
This is over-simplistic, I know. But I'm clutching at straws, here, in the hopes of an Andy victory.

I just feel Stan is better mentally equipped for this type of match. Crunch slam match against a lower-ranked player whereas Jo seems mentally flakier at business ends of tournaments.

Hmmm can I add a late pre-requisite if Andy is to win? Don't watch what Novak is doing between points - focus on your side of the net and the next point to be played. If he wants to do the dying swan act let him do it to the Phillipe Chatrier audience but not him.

Just switched on. How well is Stan playing? Good enough to seriously challenge Novak?

Good point CC. That did seem to affect him at AO. I just hope Andy gets into a position where Novak feels the need to resort to his dying swan routine.

ALLEZ!

Stans outfit really is a shocker. Neither shorts nor shirt look good in isolation and they don't go together as a pair.

He looks like he's forgotten his PE kit and had to wear clothes from lost property.

His shirts alright, but his shorts look like swimming trunks...

Tsonga now 5-4 ahead

Stan was in firm control but has dipped and Tsonga now on a roll. Stan looks to be more affected by this heat.

2 bp's for Stan.

Pivotal game this you feel. Tsonga loses it he loses the match for me.

And Jo manages to hold serve. Stan to serve to take us to a second set tie-breaker.

Tiebreak time. Crucial Tsonga takes it.

Come on tsonga, take the tie break. Need to extend this match so I can get home for the other match :-)