England v Wales, 26 September

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ENGLAND v WALES
26 September 2015
KO: 20:00
Twickenham, London

Live on [tbc]

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Touch judges: Jaco Peyper (South Africa) & Marius Mitrea (Italy)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

A. Head to Head

126 Played 126
58 Won 56
12 Drawn 12
56 Lost 58
1,596 Points 1,456

B. Recent Form

6 February 2015
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
16 – 21 to England

9 March 2014
Twickenham Stadium, London
29 – 18 to England

16 March 2013
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
30 – 3 to Wales

25 February 2012
Twickenham Stadium, London
12 – 19 to Wales

13 August 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 9 to Wales

6 August 2011
Twickenham, London
23 – 19 to England

4 February 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 26 to England

6 February 2010
Twickenham, London
30 – 17 to England

14 February 2009
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
23 – 15 to Wales

2 February 2008
Twickenham, London
19 – 26 to Wales

C. Teams

ENGLAND

[tbc]

WALES

[tbc]

We all know the set piece will be key and I believe Wales are better in this area even with their injury list, they are also better at the breakdown.

It will be close and a lot will depend on how both teams play the Ref, just hope the Twickers crowd will make themselves heard for the close calls.

TightHEAD wrote:We all know the set piece will be key and I believe Wales are better in this area even with their injury list, they are also better at the breakdown.

It will be close and a lot will depend on how both teams play the Ref, just hope the Twickers crowd will make themselves heard for the close calls.

#

For me Gatland needs to be brave. Play Tipuric and Warburton together.

He won't but it will shake up England as their backrow is averaging what 115kg??? Good strong tacklers or not, if you beaten to the ball you will suffer.
See AUS with hooper and Pocock. They're making waves all of a sudden.

I don't think Wales are better at the breakdown based on recent encounters. Maybe if we play like we did vs France or Fiji at the breakdown. But I don't think we will

I’ve had a sick feeling about this game for months, and after the Welsh injuries started piling up it’s only got worse. I can’t really understand where the English fans who are trying to offload the “favourites” tag are getting their impression from. Just check the betting odds – England are massive favourites for this match.

That said… A ticket miraculously fell into my hands for this game last week... And I can’t help getting the feeling that Gatland’s too smart and angry a cookie not to have something up his sleeve for this game. Wales do have some genuine big-game players and to be honest they’re due a big performance. As long as Liam and Samson are fit… who knows, maybe we can pull something off! If we do, I’m pretty sure it’ll be Scott Williams who’ll be the hero again.

By the way, a friend with RFU connections texted me this morning to tell me he’s heard that SAM BURGESS WILL DEFINITELY START THIS MATCH. To be honest, it doesn’t surprise me at all, if true. I think they’ve been priming him as their secret weapon for months. They’ll want him to do a job on Roberts and expect him to rise to the occasion and be the hero they have him pegged as. It may well work. But if he’s found wanting, I think Scott Williams could be the man to make him look silly.
Come on Wales!!!

Wouldn't be a massive surprise given Barritt was well below par and there's no other big option (size wise) in the team. Bit of risk though.

I would start:

1. Marler
2. Webber
3. Cole
4. Launchbury
5. Lawes
6. Wood
7. Robshaw
8. Vunipola

9. Youngs
10. Ford
11. May
12. Burgess
13. Joseph
14. Watson
15. Brown

16. George
17. Vunipola
18. Brookes
19. Kruis
20. Haskell
21. Care
22. Farrell
23. Slade

Pack provides a solid set piece platform and a lot of grunt in the loose. Backs have a lot of fizz with Burgess providing the straight lines to spreadhead the direct attack/keeping the Welsh midfield honest. On the bench Haskell covers the whole back row, Kruis is can cover both "roles" filled by Lawes and Launchbury and would fit well in that back 5. Care, Farrell and Slade the to bring on if a different option is required to clode out the game.

My mates the grounds man at Twickers and he said Burgess apparently likes the grass 1/100 of an inch longer than it is normally cut and he has just been ordered by the English management to cut it 1/100 longer for this game!!! Ooooohhhh

fa0019 wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:We all know the set piece will be key and I believe Wales are better in this area even with their injury list, they are also better at the breakdown.

It will be close and a lot will depend on how both teams play the Ref, just hope the Twickers crowd will make themselves heard for the close calls.

#

For me Gatland needs to be brave. Play Tipuric and Warburton together.

He won't but it will shake up England as their backrow is averaging what 115kg??? Good strong tacklers or not, if you beaten to the ball you will suffer.
See AUS with hooper and Pocock. They're making waves all of a sudden.

The record between these two teams is close over the last few years - 5 each isnt it? But that is down to Wales dominating in the first part of that period. Last time Wales won was that game back in Cardiff in 2013. We all know that Wales were brilliant on that day but there were mitigating factors that have been done to death.

If he plays Tips and Warburton together then they are not going to be able to add as much muscle into the scrums as with Lydiate. This puts a lot of onus on the Welsh props to perform throughout the match. With the 'fragile' options Wales currently have available that pack is going to be very stretched as the game runs its course.

I think Wales should have an edge in the lineout, but in attack they have looked toothless against England in recent games. They will score through Biggar kicking but they just don't have the tools to score many tries against England. They have a great record defensively, but do look vulnerable out wide with the number of injuries. Do they have anyone to do the 'last ditch body on the line' stuff that Halfpenny usually does?

Its going to be a hell of a battle but for all the bluster and BS Wales are up against it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if its a rerun of the 6N. Wales all out at the start and looking good then it turns into one way traffic. If they can get an initial lead it will of course make things tougher. If they don't its gonna be a long day.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:I’ve had a sick feeling about this game for months, and after the Welsh injuries started piling up it’s only got worse.  I can’t really understand where the English fans who are trying to offload the “favourites” tag are getting their impression from.  Just check the betting odds – England are massive favourites for this match.  

That said… A ticket miraculously fell into my hands for this game last week...  And I can’t help getting the feeling that Gatland’s too smart and angry a cookie not to have something up his sleeve for this game.  Wales do have some genuine big-game players and to be honest they’re due a big performance.  As long as Liam and Samson are fit… who knows, maybe we can pull something off!  If we do, I’m pretty sure it’ll be Scott Williams who’ll be the hero again.

By the way, a friend with RFU connections texted me this morning to tell me he’s heard that SAM BURGESS WILL DEFINITELY START THIS MATCH.  To be honest, it doesn’t surprise me at all, if true.  I think they’ve been priming him as their secret weapon for months.  They’ll want him to do a job on Roberts and expect him to rise to the occasion and be the hero they have him pegged as.  It may well work.  But if he’s found wanting, I think Scott Williams could be the man to make him look silly.
Come on Wales!!!

If Wales are going to do something like this then (assuming Burgess starts) I'd agree Scott Williams is going to be the danger man.

TightHEAD wrote:My mates the grounds man at Twickers and he said Burgess apparently likes the grass 1/100 of an inch longer than it is normally cut and he has just been ordered by the English management to cut it 1/100 longer for this game!!! Ooooohhhh

Don't tell my Mrs. that you can buy a lawnmower that makes the grass LONGER, she will want to buy one, she like nothing better than nagging me to "cut the bloody grass, it's too long"

Not sure if anyone else has seen this...

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/watch-moment-welsh-fans-shocked-10105177

Put a lump in my throat... I just hope it put a lump in the English teams Y-Fronts (lump in the back of their pants that is, not in an aroused way )

So JJ is injured and is a doubt for the game anyone else heard this?

TightHEAD wrote:So JJ is injured and is a doubt for the game anyone else heard this?

Thats a new one and I hope its not a wind up . Slade may get a look in in that case, which on the bright side means substituting one box of tricks for another

TightHEAD wrote:So JJ is injured and is a doubt for the game anyone else heard this?

Yeah was just released in the English news conference. Also heard Burgess may start, think it will depend on JJs fitness.

Wales online are running the story

Big blow if true surely Slade will have to come in and not a midfield of Barritt and Burgess!!!!

TightHEAD wrote:Big blow if true surely Slade will have to come in and not a midfield of Barritt and Burgess!!!!

I think the talk is that if JJ is injured they may go with the Burgess/Slade pairing.

Mail reporting JJ doubtful. Who goes with Slade? Barritt or Burgess?

I'd be tempted to go Farrell Burgess Slade acrually, after the pergormance against France. Obviously Ford would be far more likely snd possibly more sensible to start.

Ford Burgess is a club combo so either way things should work

lostinwales wrote:Ford Burgess is a club combo so either way things should work

Aye, Ford would be more than fine, but I just think that maybe Farrell would be better for this. I have no real good reason for thinking it mind (apart from the first France game). Immaterial really, Ford will start and I bet Burgess does too.

If it comes down to it, I would be more excited than scared to see Slade take the field. He is a very serious talent.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Jesus, JJ being out is not good news if true, hopefully he can make it, but don't want him risked if he's not fully fit

lostinwales wrote:Ford Burgess is a club combo so either way things should work

Weeellllllll. not wanting to incite fanboy but:

You can count the numebr of premiership matches that saw ford n Sam start at 10 n 12 on the thumbs of one hand.

LondonTiger wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Ford Burgess is a club combo so either way things should work

Weeellllllll. not wanting to incite fanboy but:

You can count the numebr of premiership matches that saw ford n Sam start at 10 n 12 on the thumbs of one hand.

teehee. True but at least they will have trained a fair bit together, although of course we now also know that that is useless

It's a shame that JJ is out but I feel a bit more confident now. He was one of England's most potent weapons in the backline and could have run circles around our big centre's. Just waiting to hear if there are any further injuries to guys like Brown, May and Watson...

My prediction may be wrong after this news, Wales will win by more than 2pts.

Brown goes down we are left with (not)Goode.

May or Watson goes down you get to face Nowell, who isnt as quick but is very busy and very good at being a right pain in the backside.

Hold your horses, guys - word is JJ may not be fit - it certainly isn't for sure. It seems there's all kinds of misinformation flying around from both sides - neither willing to show their hand/teamsheet prematurely. It seems England want to keep Wales guessing about who'll they'll be up against in the centres until the last minute.

Anyway, I'm hoping Wales keep ball in hand and do less kicking, but at the same time execute less crashball tactics. It might mean having Tips and Warbs on the pitch together so we can be first to every breakdown, but perhaps at the expense of Faletau rather than Lydiate.

I'm fairly sure we'll see something a bit different from Wales on Saturday (if they get enough ball!) - whether it works or not!

You can get wales to win with a 9 point headstart on the handicap at 2-1. Even as an england fan I couldn't turn that down. Have £20 on it

Where? I saw the same handicap but at evens.

Bet365

Samoa are also us 21 again at 2-1 against SA!

My bad it is at evens. Still worth a flutter.

Since Warren Gatland took over, Wales and England have played 10 times, with England victorious 5 times and Wales 5 time.

The points different for all those games is +19 to Wales (or +13 if you exclude the World cup warm-up games)

5 of the 10 games have finished within a score, with 9 out of the 10 within two scores.

+27 of Wales' points difference comes from one match, where most England fans and many neutrals would tell you the scoreline was distorted by the ref.

In other words, it's very, very close - especially if 20,000 loud Welshmen nullify home advantage to some extent.

The crowd factor will be interesting to see. I'd always expected the RWC atmosphere to be flatter than people were expecting - mainly because there is such a large corporate contingent, and lots of spectators who are their on favours etc, and just not as vocal or passionate as fans in a 6N match. This may not be the case, but it certainly was at Wales RWC games held in Cardiff back in 2007, where the atmosphere was really flat compared with 6N matches. I read the Telegraph piece and it's basically some fairly liberal conjecture on possible numbers. However, I do certainly think there'll certainly be enough Welsh fans there to make themselves heard (+1 here, anyway!).

How much French support was there in the ground on the last 6N game in Twickers? Were any of you there...? HQ sounded pretty loud and partisan that day on the TV!

The France game was one of the loudest I've ever experienced at Twickenham - and the Fiji one was pretty good too. I can imagine there will be a lot of back and forth on Saturday!

wrfc1980 wrote:You can get wales to win with a 9 point headstart on the handicap at 2-1. Even as an england fan I couldn't turn that down. Have £20 on it

If you want to do some handicap betting, take a look at Scotland-Japan tomorrow. 11/10 that Japan win with a +16 start; 2/1 for a +8 start.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/scotland-v-japan/handicaps

Poorfour wrote:+27 of Wales' points difference comes from one match, where most England fans and many neutrals would tell you the scoreline was distorted by the ref.

In other words, it's very, very close - especially if 20,000 loud Welshmen nullify home advantage to some extent.

Keep telling yourself that.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:The crowd factor will be interesting to see.  I'd always expected the RWC atmosphere to be flatter than people were expecting - mainly because there is such a large corporate contingent, and lots of spectators who are their on favours etc, and just not as vocal or passionate as fans in a 6N match.  This may not be the case, but it certainly was at Wales RWC games held in Cardiff back in 2007, where the atmosphere was really flat compared with 6N matches.  I read the Telegraph piece and it's basically some fairly liberal conjecture on possible numbers.  However, I do certainly think there'll certainly be enough Welsh fans there to make themselves heard (+1 here, anyway!).  

How much French support was there in the ground on the last 6N game in Twickers? Were any of you there...?  HQ sounded pretty loud and partisan that day on the TV!

Twickenham is usually mainly corporate sales. I reckon there will be more "fans" this time out than suits.

wales606 wrote:Since Warren Gatland took over, Wales and England have played 10 times, with England victorious 5 times and Wales 5 time.

The points different for all those games is +19 to Wales (or +13 if you exclude the World cup warm-up games)

5 of the 10 games have finished within a score, with 9 out of the 10 within two scores.

Ok, Wales and England have played 10 times during Gats tenure.. Check.. got that..

5 of the 10 games have finished within a score... Ok, will buy that.. Not sure, haven't checked, but seems logical, so will take it as read...

with 9 out of the 10 within two scores... Hang on a minute.. How can 5 out of 10 (50%) be within a score and then 9 out of 10 (90%) be within two scores.. Am I going mad, or does that maths not add up..

I heard you can make stats show anything, but I think this has gone a step too far...

No9 wrote:

wales606 wrote:Since Warren Gatland took over, Wales and England have played 10 times, with England victorious 5 times and Wales 5 time.

The points different for all those games is +19 to Wales (or +13 if you exclude the World cup warm-up games)

5 of the 10 games have finished within a score, with 9 out of the 10 within two scores.

Ok, Wales and England have played 10 times during Gats tenure.. Check.. got that..

5 of the 10 games have finished within a score... Ok, will buy that.. Not sure, haven't checked, but seems logical, so will take it as read...

with 9 out of the 10 within two scores... Hang on a minute.. How can 5 out of 10 (50%) be within a score and then 9 out of 10 (90%) be within two scores.. Am I going mad, or does that maths not add up..

I heard you can make stats show anything, but I think this has gone a step too far...

I see what your saying now... the 9 out of 10 includes the 5 out of 10 as well...

Sorry been a long day at the office...

You're going mad.

By definition those within one score are also within two scores. If a game is won with a margin of 5 points, then it's within one score. It's also within two scores, three scores, four scores, five scores etc.

You're thinking of different categories:

- within one score (5 games)
- within two scores, but a difference greater than one score (4 games)
- greater difference than two scores (1 game)

Thanks for pointing that out.. I did twig, hence my 2nd post illustrating my error..

No9 wrote: Thanks for pointing that out.. I did twig, hence my 2nd post illustrating my error..

Sorry. The fussy lawyer within me couldn't help myself.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:I’ve had a sick feeling about this game for months, and after the Welsh injuries started piling up it’s only got worse.  I can’t really understand where the English fans who are trying to offload the “favourites” tag are getting their impression from.  Just check the betting odds – England are massive favourites for this match.  

That said… A ticket miraculously fell into my hands for this game last week...  And I can’t help getting the feeling that Gatland’s too smart and angry a cookie not to have something up his sleeve for this game.  Wales do have some genuine big-game players and to be honest they’re due a big performance.  As long as Liam and Samson are fit… who knows, maybe we can pull something off!  If we do, I’m pretty sure it’ll be Scott Williams who’ll be the hero again.

By the way, a friend with RFU connections texted me this morning to tell me he’s heard that SAM BURGESS WILL DEFINITELY START THIS MATCH.  To be honest, it doesn’t surprise me at all, if true.  I think they’ve been priming him as their secret weapon for months.  They’ll want him to do a job on Roberts and expect him to rise to the occasion and be the hero they have him pegged as.  It may well work.  But if he’s found wanting, I think Scott Williams could be the man to make him look silly.
Come on Wales!!!

Beating Ireland in Dublin wasn't a big performance ?