AO 2016 - Day 11

Order of Play - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule16.html

Live Scores - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/index.html

Day 11 Preview - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-27/day_11_preview_can_roger_buck_the_trend.html

My predictions...

Williams in 2, Kerber in 2.

Djokovic in 5.

I feel as I did before the USO final.

Federer looks to be in better form than Djokovic. That's a reflection of Novak's form as much as Roger's.

Then, just as I'm about to say I think Federer may win, I consider how hard it is to take three sets from Djokovic on a court like this.

Despite my best attempts to be otherwise, I'm not impartial in my interest, so I'll refrain from any predictions. They'll doubtlessly be cautious to the point of silliness!

To my great frustration, I can't watch it and will have to keep on eye on the scores at work.

I'm not expecting a particularly productive morning...

I would prefer to pupate sometime through the night, or at least go into some form of suspended animation or induced coma, and emerge resplendent mid afternoon to learn of the (doubtless) flattening result, but unfortunately I have some customers who selfishly crave attention tomorrow morning. Hopefully I will be able to concentrate on the matter at hand and not be fretting, or telling them to shut up because I've just heard bad news from Australia.

Djokovic in 4, as usual, unless Federer really suffers from the transmission to nights.

Ive thought the same thing for Roger the last like 4 slam meetings! I cant dare punt on the result again. He just isn't allowed to play exhib mode against Novak in this format it seems, its in his court to prove that wrong on whats probably a slower court than wimby or the US.

He needs the first set, then its about 50/50. If he loses the first, oh god oh god oh god.

TBH im not that pumped, this is like the 50th time they've met, and neither need the win or the slam really to cement anything, it would just be nice for them. All my hype is in the second semi.

Adding doubles teams that I hold a candle for:

Murray/Soares in 3
Williams in 2
Kerber in 2
Djoko in 4
Hingis/Paes in 3

As a Fed fan the simple truth is that something pretty unusual needs to happen for him to get 3 sets vs. Djoko in an evening match at the latter's best slam; one wobbly match and otherwise less than stellar form thus far on the part of Djoko does not auger sufficiently well for Fed.  I'd love to be proven wrong, but as T21 says there's not a whole lot riding on it for Fed beyond the size of the dollop of icing this tournament adds to the already amazing cake of Fed's career.

Can't help feeling that Federer almost needs to get it done in 3, maybe 4 at a pinch. He has very little choice of tactics, has to just go for it, whereas Djokovic can always fall back on taking the match deep as a winning strategy. Sure, Federer is playing better than Djokovic at present, but the same was true at Wimbledon, and arguably at the US Open, and both times Djokovic raised his game enough to come through. With these conditions favouring Djokovic more, you'd fancy him to come through again, maybe in four sets. Certainly Feds needs the first set IMO.

Re the other matches, can't see Williams being troubled by Radwanska, much as I enjoy the latter's game she'll simply be overpowered, as she has been before. Think Konta vs Kerber could be close, Konta's done quite well so far at removing the pressure of the occasion in previous matches, and if she can do the same here she has a chance. Certainly her game has enough to trouble Kerber. Would be a first for either of them to reach a final, and maybe the pressure of expectation will weigh more heavily on Kerber, who rightly starts as favourite? Could be an interesting match that one IMO.

Much as Feds-Djokovic could be a high quality match, I can't be the only one feeling a wee bit underwhelmed by the whole thing. Tennis desperately needs some new blood breaking through, almost to the extent that I'd quite like Raonic to win the tournament!!

I see Novak winning in four sets. I think people underestimate is returning ability. Roger is an aggressive player who can hit winners from all over but Djokovic has the knack of being able to return shots that against others would be winners and getting Roger to play that one extra shot that can then be missed. However, we have seen Novak being vulnerable against Simon in this tournament and so if Djoko throws in another performance of that ilk then Roger can certainly win in three or four sets but I'd say that scenario is unlikely. I do feel Novak has an extra steely determination when playing Roger like we saw at the US Open. Rightly or wrongly he feels hard done by the treatment he gets in these matches as he must feel like the pantomime villain so it adds another layer to his determination as he wants to prove he is the best right now and what better way to do that than against Roger.

Djoko always wins all the big matches since 12/13
Djoko to win - either in 3 sets or a comfortable 4
This should be the match that confirms this rivalry has past its best and is now dull and predictable
There isn't really a top rivalry in tennis at the moment...you know, a top 2 rivalry that's genuinely close to 50/50 on who will win
A bit of jeopardy missing. Djoko/Rafa and Djoko/Murray rivalries are similar
Djoko/Stan has been the best in recent years actually

Let's hope Jamie Murray can get that doubles slam his career has perhaps merited

Fed/Djok at 5.30am here in Chile
I have a meeting at 6am
Should be able to catch the second half of the match

Rain forecast so probably roof closed which at Laver slows things down even more. Hard to see how Fed hits through Djoko tonight. I'm going with Djoko in 4.

Still amazing results for old Fed and I think Djoko will be set for another dominant year.

its like 8:30 in the morning here. As my phd is in jubblies last few months I can afford to just work at home, so I can catch it... if I wake up that is.

IF you wake up by 8.30am or if you wake before it finishes at lunch time? Typical student

There's no doubt that a big match v Federer seems to motivate Novak these days more than any other. And more so perhaps than v Rafa (when Novak generally seems very calm & assured, with little of the occasional edginess that Fed can still cause him at times).

Even though Djokovic didn't put in perfect performances at either Wimbledon or the USO last year, he certainly won the crucial points ; not least, the 18 out of 23 BP's that he saved so impressively in New York. That sort of resistance - coupled with Federer's unfortunate ability to dip below the high levels we often see from him in the run-up to these big clashes - does not augur well for the Swiss star.

Like most here, I would go with Novak in 4 ; and quite possibly 3.

The story so far :

- 44 matches played

- 22 victories apiece

First 22 matches : 13-9 in favour of Federer
Next 22 matches : 13-9 in favour of Djokovic

CaledonianCraig wrote:I see Novak winning in four sets. I think people underestimate is returning ability. Roger is an aggressive player who can hit winners from all over but Djokovic has the knack of being able to return shots that against others would be winners and getting Roger to play that one extra shot that can then be missed

................................................

THIS !

In a nutshell.

Sums up why Federer still remains a scary prospect for pretty much anyone on Tour - except Djokovic.

As long as my insomnia isn't playing up I'll be fine

Murray/Soares win 6-3 6-1.
Only lost 1 set on the way to the final, and that was in a tiebreak, to Klaasen/Ram who beat the Bryan brothers.

Other semi is Nestor/Stepanek vs Cuevas/Granollers. I assume that's tomorrow.

The match starts 3:30am tomorrow, so going to bed early tonight. Not sure if I will be coming here during the match as I will be half asleep, so, as always:

Good luck, Roger!

It's two hours And change before the match and I am little tipsy I will stay up the requisite time to watch this great rivalry. Novak in four, he has had to deal with a lot of silliness and some poor form but in recent months he has been able to pull out clutch performances when needed. Although I think Fed has a better chance than what some are giving him, at best I would give djokovic between a 60-40 and two to one favorite.

Novak's serve has been a bright spot and if he serves well limiting Fed's break chances than this will be a relatively more routine Novak win. Because you know on this slower court over 5 sets he will create a few break chances. fed needs a good return day compounded with a slightly off Novak serve.

Just have a feeling Fed will do it today. His level has been insane in the last couple of matches and this court is playing quicker than people are saying. Needs to serve exceptionally but if he hits 65% on the first serve then I think he's got the edge. Roger in 4.

Henman Bill wrote:Murray/Soares win 6-3 6-1.
Only lost 1 set on the way to the final, and that was in a tiebreak, to Klaasen/Ram who beat the Bryan brothers.

Other semi is Nestor/Stepanek vs Cuevas/Granollers. I assume that's tomorrow.

No, Nestor and Stepanek are through - I'd love to see JM pick up a slam, odds are that he'll keep on making chances and get one in the next year or so, but I have Nestor and Stepanek as pretty warm favourites this tourhament because they can both play doubles, but Stepanek will be by some distance the best and most powerful player on Court. There's quite a gap between doubles specialists and singles players these days and Stepanek is a very handy hybrid to have in your pairing.

Very tough match to call. Federer has been playing better than Djokovic through this tournament, yes, but you anticipate the Serbian's revival at any moment.

Federer to nick a 5-setter. Couple of tie-breakers along the way.

This is an excellent article on the AO site about how Djokovic fries Federer's mind and makes him back off from his aggressive game in bo5 matches http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-28/ao_analyst_djokovic_v_federer.html.  There are a host of good quotes, here is one:

That’s exactly what Djokovic does to Federer - makes him second-guess his winning tactics at crunch time, allowing the Serb to play the big points on his terms.

Rod Laver court is full - it's pat to the rafters.

Superb start from Djokovic and breaks to lead 2-0. Federer hitting hard but everything came back with interest.

Break = first set = match?
Move along folks, there's nothing to see here.

This is looking bad already, Federer seems uncomfortable and Novak in the zone

It just struck me that Federer's inspiration for the Bertie Bassett outfit might be del Potro from RG 2009.

Desperate start going 0-3 down in the first set - it's a distinctly uphill march from here.

Djoko in control hitting deep and painting the lines and Roger has no answer at the moment Novak leads 3-0 after 7 minutes. Roof open as well.

Roger holds to love to get his first game on the board. He trails 3-1. Can he make inroads now to Novak's serve?

Well he made dome inroads but Novak still holds to 30 and leads 4-1.

Ah this is the Serbian's revival! Instantaneous rather than delayed.

Fe looking like an amateur.

Wake the f up man.

Too good from Novak. He breaks again to lead 5-1. Roger just not getting a look in.

It's an UE fest from Federer. 

I will tune in for the award ceremony on Sunday.

Jahu wrote:Fe looking like an amateur.

Wake the f up man.

He is fully awake but getting beat and he is not getting any chance to impose himself. At times like this you have to say too good.

Twenty-two minutes for the opening set.

First set, 6-1, 22 minutes, 6/14 points won on serve.  Unless something extraordinary happens the best Fed can hope for in this match is to make the scoreline look a bit more respectable before he's hustled off the scene.

That is why Novak is the world No.1.

Roger needs Novsk's level to drop and fast.

Crucial hold from Federer, seeing off a break point chance.

CC, sure sure, not good.

This is what I was saying last night. Roger is hitting shots that ends up as winners against 99% of tennis players but such is Novak's ability he returns them and Roger then presses harder for the winner often on his next shot and misses. Crucial hold by Roger.

Fed like he is playing Nadal, scared

Djokovic breaks to love. Federer trying all he knows but nothing working as Novak has all bases covered.

Novak is playing well but Fed is serving poorly so Novak is all over him when the ball is in play

Missing so much as well, even when it's not a deep return

CAS clear to me why that is. The man on the other side of the net - that point there demonstrates it.

Djokovic isn't in Federer class and never will be. Federer is old and Djokovic is picking him off to boost the H2H. Peak Federer beats this chump every day of the week. Slow courts aiding this weak era King.

Duty281 wrote:Crucial hold from Federer, seeing off a break point chance.

Sadly I don't think that anything Fed does in this match will be "crucial" - it's over, it's just a question of how big the beating is.

Federer hit a rasping shot that looked all ends up a winner yet Djoko got it back and ended up winning thevpoint.

Fed has sold this match, he has played better with back injury