US presidential elections

First topic message reminder :

Morning all,

So after the win in Iowa for Ted Cruz last night where do we see this going?

I'm thinking Clinton v Rubio. Lots of twists and turns still to come though.

What's all this 'Hilary's super delegates' bit I keep reading about?

Seems like her & Bernie were neck & neck she could chuck in a few hundred of these, which Bern doesn't seem to have at his disposal, to pull away again.

What's the craic?

TopHat24/7 wrote:What's all this 'Hilary's super delegates' bit I keep reading about?

Seems like her & Bernie were neck & neck she could chuck in a few hundred of these, which Bern doesn't seem to have at his disposal, to pull away again.

What's the craic?

Basically, the Democrats hold a chunk of delegate spots at the convention back for party officials that can pick their own candidate. I think the idea is that it gives states where the party is well represented more say in the process, but since Clinton is a party heavyweight and Sanders wasn't even a member when he announced he'd be running (I think ballot rules in some states may have forced him to sign up), they're basically all Clinton backers. Sanders supporters obviously aren't too happy at the idea of winning states but ending up with fewer delegates because of this, and are hoping they can pressure some of them into following the voters. This almost certainly isn't going to work though, not least because Clinton's actually winning the popular vote so far (Sanders wins a lot of caucuses, which have notoriously awful turnout).

Ok. Thanks.

Next question, what the heck is a 'caucus'??!

Is it a majority white state? Thinking police here, "IC1 male"/"Caucasian male" ..... feck knows!

A caucus is a gathering. Once upon a time, when fewer people were allowed to vote, having them come together to discuss who they should back probaby made some sense. Now it's just an unbelievably time consuming way of voting used by some states. Instead of going to a polling station at some point in the day, you go to a neigbourhood location at a set time and declare your support for a candidate.

Wow, bizarre, thanks!

Google is your friend Toppy. You must love them, they don't pay any tax either!

Haha

If I remember rightly ...Superdelegates started because of the disastrous convention in 1968...I think Kennedy had the most delegates before Sirhan killed him and Johnson's VP Humphrey entered the race after this...Mcgovern??? lost to Humphrey by a smallish margin but would have won with Kennedy's delegates...

Both Mcgovern and Kennedy were anti the Vietnam war..Humphrey pro war...

As most of the membership was anti Vietnam there were violent protests outside after Humphrey got the nod from the Committee as he was thought not representative of the party..

The idea then was for superdelegates to reflect the will of the party membership..However with the power of the Clinton's it's not a fail safe option...As Sanders is screwed already.

There you go some history for you..

Boo boom..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:If I remember rightly ...Superdelegates started because of the disastrous convention in 1968...I think Kennedy had the most delegates before Sirhan killed him and Johnson's VP Humphrey entered the race after this...Mcgovern??? lost to Humphrey by a smallish margin but would have won with Kennedy's delegates...

Both Mcgovern and Kennedy were anti the Vietnam war..Humphrey pro war...

As most of the membership was anti Vietnam there were violent protests outside after Humphrey got the nod from the Committee as he was thought not representative of the party..

The idea then was for superdelegates to reflect the will of the party membership..However with the power of the Clinton's it's not a fail safe option...As Sanders is screwed already.

There you go some history for you..

Boo boom..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hillary-clinton-and-bill-de-blasio-under-fire-for-awkward-joke-about-coloured-peoples-time-a6979661.html

I think Hillary needs to shut up and look pretty before she snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

Hillary has nailed the nomination over brave Bernie.....Had the scare of her life though and a big blow for private interests that an unbought politician can go so close !!..

Trump got 16 or so more delegates than expected Tuesday night....which means Indiana isn't too important and he suddenly has a path !!!!....

This Cruz/ Kasich pact was crazy...Looks like a stitch up and the folks back home don't like those....

With the 40 or so unbound delegates Trump will be getting from Pennsyl...

Gives him 1000/1237.............

Worst Trump-case scenario.....

New Jersey 51.........
California 80/179......
40/50 from the remaining proportional states.......

= 1171/1237...........66 short.............and that is a worse case scenario...

Good luck stopping him....

Would Ted Cruz make a better US president than Donald Trump? I hear stories that Ted Cruz is a bible basher but checking his Wikipedia page he has a first class education and is a doctor of law. His parents were highly educated.

Nore Staat wrote:Would Ted Cruz make a better US president than Donald Trump?  I hear stories that Ted Cruz is a bible basher but checking his Wikipedia page he has a first class education and is a doctor of law.  His parents were highly educated.

By all accounts he's a very intelligent, cunning man. His main flaw is that it seems like everyone that gets to know him, hates him. A former (Republican) Speaker of the House called him "Lucifer in the flesh", and another senior Republican said that might be a bit harsh on Lucifer.

Yeh, but that black dude was a highly educated surgeon but it didn't stop him still being a complete f*cking whack job - pyramids were grain stores, general bible bashing rhetoric etc etc

America is funny in that way (as is any country too heavily influenced by religion) that you can have some very smart/educated people that suddenly become dumb as f*ck when something comes up to do with their religion.

Trump up by six points in Indiana in latest poll...

All she wrote for Cruz...If Trump wins the hoosier state..

See protestors have been trying to lynch him in California....Better watch his ass..No good being the nominee lying in the morgue.

Is Trump popular because of his rhetoric or despite his rhetoric?  Surely at some stage he has to tone it down.  The Wall across America, not allowing "muslims" into the country these are just silly statements - and he must know they are silly but he keeps repeating things and gets himself in trouble when examined in close detail.  Yes it is good to talk straight but he needs to also act a bit more like a politician rather than a drunk at a bar.

Some people are saying he is doing this to get free publicity because apparently he is not spending much by way of adverts in the media,

Nore Staat wrote:Is Trump popular because of his rhetoric or despite his rhetoric?

He's popular in the same way someone like Nigel Farage is. He's being supported by a large, passionate minority who eat the rhetoric up, but his overall numbers with the general public don't look good.

Nore Staat wrote:Is Trump popular because of his rhetoric or despite his rhetoric?  Surely at some stage he has to tone it down.  The Wall across America, not allowing "muslims" into the country these are just silly statements - and he must know they are silly but he keeps repeating things and gets himself in trouble when examined in close detail.  Yes it is good to talk straight but he needs to also act a bit more like a politician rather than a drunk at a bar.

Some people are saying he is doing this to get free publicity because apparently he is not spending much by way of adverts in the media,

The economy isn't great and Trump is a successful businessman and not a politician..

He's self funding so he isn't in the pocket of Wall Street..

9/11 put terror in the mind of a people that viewed Terrorism as an alien concept...Many are scared of Muslims and don't understand the various forms of Islam so Muslim bashing to many is a vote winner...

A lot of scum comes from Mexico illegally...Drugs and violence is becoming a problem in border towns and Cities....A wall would appeal to many..

While he's chucking crap at Mexicans and Muslims he can smokescreen the fact he knows nothing about politics and hasn't got any real policies..

Trump is a good sales man...and people buy his crap..

Obama has been a letdown...He came in with great expectations he was never going to live up to..

We've always been a people that reveres celebrities...Too much in my opinion..
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Anyway Trump isn't interested in the nomination or the Presidency..If he was he'd have spent more than 50 million...He's been saying stupid things probably to get out of it !!...

He's scared of the Clinton machine and should be...She's the biggest beast since LBJ....She's vicious Auntie Hill and he knows it..

She'll be exposing skeletons he doesn't even know about..

It's a vanity exercise from a sensitive guy who's probably only running because MSNBC have been saying for years he's a fraud and would never have the bollox to back up his four-yearly boasts of running for Pennsylvania Avenue...

Trump idolises the Donald Trump he created...He's nothing like him but like a protective Son he guards his "Daddy"...

Just ask Rosie O'Donnell and Bill Maher and the million others he's threatened when Daddy has been mocked !!.
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He's got to try to get out of this crap before Clinton destroys him...Probably hoping he gets screwed at the convention...as a get out of jail free card..With huge ego intact..

Still never a dull moment hey..

Lowlandbrit wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:Would Ted Cruz make a better US president than Donald Trump?  I hear stories that Ted Cruz is a bible basher but checking his Wikipedia page he has a first class education and is a doctor of law.  His parents were highly educated.

By all accounts he's a very intelligent, cunning man. His main flaw is that it seems like everyone that gets to know him, hates him. A former (Republican) Speaker of the House called him "Lucifer in the flesh", and another senior Republican said that might be a bit harsh on Lucifer.

Actually I was reading those comments of Joe Boehner, then a couple of hours later (granted it was on Fox) but Cruz was saying hes hardly ever met Boehner let alone worked with him....Really? can people at this level of the Republican party be so far apart? or is someone showing his support for trump without actually coming out and saying it?

Lovely guy that spent 21 hours filibustering trying to shutdown Obama care. .

That universal care system that doesn't want to see hard working families living on the streets because they can't afford the bills when their kid gets a serious illness...

Wants to turn the screw on planned parenthood...The organisation that helps and looks after vulnerable women..helping them with a wide range of issues..

Compulsive liar...Ask Carson..and Rubio..

Lovely fella...

Is Trump a great businessman? I also believe he isn't self funding, he's spending his own money as a loan to his campaign, and he will get paid back by those who have donated or support him

Is Cindy Crawford really that beautiful ?? I mean her lips could be better..

Let's all be pedantic .

Nore Staat wrote:Is Trump popular because of his rhetoric or despite his rhetoric?  Surely at some stage he has to tone it down.  The Wall across America, not allowing "muslims" into the country these are just silly statements - and he must know they are silly but he keeps repeating things and gets himself in trouble when examined in close detail.  Yes it is good to talk straight but he needs to also act a bit more like a politician rather than a drunk at a bar.

Some people are saying he is doing this to get free publicity because apparently he is not spending much by way of adverts in the media,

By the way coming from New England...Your user name isn't lost on me even if it has escaped attention on here..

aucklandlaurie wrote:Actually I was reading those comments of Joe Boehner, then a couple of hours later (granted it was on Fox) but Cruz was saying hes hardly ever met Boehner let alone worked with him....Really? can people at this level of the Republican party be so far apart? or is someone showing his support for trump without actually coming out and saying it?

Fun fact; Cruz was once Boehner's lawyer. But this is mainly about the fact that Boehner was more or less willing to negotiate with Democrats to get things done, but a faction of the party (with Cruz as one of the main figures) would rather block everything than compromise. It didn't make him many friends, and a lot of people don't like the idea of it setting an example.

Trump has just had a lawsuit chucked at him by a woman who claims he r**ed her when she was 13.....Apparently no one lives at the address the complaint has come from..

Fancy this happening with the last chance saloon Hoosier primary happening on Tuesday..

Why does Donald Trump keep doing it?  He's gone and done it again - using the word "r***" to describe China's economic relationship to America.  Donald Trump has been developing a reputation for not understanding as well as denigrating women's issues and now he starts using the word "r***" to describe the relationship between China and the US.  It is so unnecessary but he keeps doing it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36185012

Ps: I didn't realise this forum automatically censors a word that the BBC freely uses.  Presumably it is to prevent commentators from using the word in an inappropriate context - exactly what Donald Trump has just gone and done.

So now there's going to be phony outrage by the media and some loony feminists?

Should have used the word 'murdered', Mr. President, no one has a problem with that!

Trump's success is down to the fact he does say these things and is not a robot politician...Won't hurt at all...

Clinton has just had to apologise for using the derogatory term "Off the reservation" to describe Trump....

It's an old insulting term to describe native Americans...Generally those of male variety..

Hilary doesn't like men you see...She's only put up with that useless, money grabbing, sex hungry knob of a husband so he can help her bag the Whitehouse....

All Auntie's life has been in preparation for November..

Duty281 wrote:So now there's going to be phony outrage by the media and some loony feminists?

Should have used the word 'murdered', Mr. President, no one has a problem with that!

No.  r*** itself is an outrage.  If you were a woman and had been r***** then maybe you would have a different attitude.  r*** victims are not loony feminists.  

Anyway I hope you can at least recognise that for a sizeable proportion of the electorate this type of language is viewed as entirely inappropriate (see below) especially for someone running for the top political job in the US and probably the world.  Also Donald Trump has history over the use of inappropriate and potentially derogatory comments towards and about women.

Wikipedia wrote:r*** prevalence among women in the U.S. (the percentage of women who experienced r*** at least once in their lifetime so far) is in the range of 15–20%, with different studies disagreeing with each other. (National Violence against Women survey, 1995, found 17.6% prevalence rate;[12] a 2007 national study for the Department of Justice on r*** found 18% prevalence rate.[13]) According to a March 2013 report from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, from 1995 to 2010, the estimated annual rate of female r*** or sexual assault declined 58%, from 5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to 2.1 per 1,000. Assaults on young women aged 12–17 declined from 11.3 per 1,000 in 1994-1998 to 4.1 per 1,000 in 2005-2010; assaults on women aged 18–34 also declined over the same period, from 7.0 per 1,000 to 3.7.[14][15]


12. Prevalence, Incidence, and Consequences of Violence Against Women: Findings From the National Violence Against Women Survey. (PDF) . Retrieved on 2011-10-01.
13. Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; Conoscenti, Lauren M.; McCauley, Jenna (July 2007). "Drug-facilitated, Incapacitated, and Forcible r***: A National Study" (pdf). National Criminal Justice Reference Service. United States Department of Justice. pp. 43–45. Retrieved 16 March 2015.
14. "Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010". JournalistsResource.org, retrieved March 24, 2012
15. Berzofsky, Marcus; Krebs, Christopher; Langton, Lynn; Planty, Michael; Smiley-McDonald, Hope (March 7, 2013). "Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010". Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Nore Staat wrote:

Duty281 wrote:So now there's going to be phony outrage by the media and some loony feminists?

Should have used the word 'murdered', Mr. President, no one has a problem with that!

No.  r*** itself is an outrage.  If you were a woman and had been r***** then maybe you would have a different attitude.

What do you mean 'if I were a woman'? Men can be victims of r*** as well.

And I never said r*** victims were loony feminists, either.

I didn't realise Women owned the word r**e either...

Look what is happening on this thread. I will stop here. Donald Trump's comments bring nothing but deep seated division.

Nore Staat wrote:Anyway I hope you can at least recognise that for a sizeable proportion of the electorate this type of language is viewed as entirely inappropriate (see below) especially for someone running for the top political job in the US and probably the world.  Also Donald Trump has history over the use of inappropriate and potentially derogatory comments towards and about women.

You appear to have missed my point entirely. Let me give you an example.

When Tottenham play Chelsea tonight, let's imagine that Harry Kane scores 4 goals. The commentator might say that "Kane has murdered Chelsea tonight" - and no one will bat an eyelid or have any problem with it.

Now let's imagine, same scenario, the commentator says that "Kane has raped Chelsea tonight" - and every front page, radio/TV discussion will be dedicated to the phony outrage that will inevitably occur. How dare he use such a word?!!!! What a disgusting individual!!!! etc. And of course said commentator will lose his job and be publicly disgraced.

And really, what's the difference? Both refer to crimes at the horrific end of the spectrum, yet one is deemed to be acceptable as a throwaway line, the other is not.

Ludicrous.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I didn't realise Women owned the word r**e either...

Such an idea is the logic of the self-righteous, loony feminists!

Trump has been nothing but divisive..

Muslims..

Women who have abortions need punishing..

Most Mexicans are scum..

That's his game...He doesn't want any part of Hillary...It's why she has the media in the bag and the SDs...

She always repays her debts...

He'll end up on Ryker Island if he ends up taking her on..

If he isn't scared he should be...She's the biggest heavyweight since LBJ....and she bears grudges..

Nore Staat wrote:Look what is happening on this thread.  I will stop here.  Donald Trump's comments bring nothing but deep seated division.

I'm still curious as to why you think only women can be victims of r***?

If he's that easily offended I'm not sure Off topic is for him..

Why does the v2 forum censor the word r***?
Why is this the lead story on the BBC website?

As this is a sensitive issue I will not respond to personalised comments on this matter.  The point I would like to contribute to this thread is that this is an example of Donald Trump creating division amongst people.   For this reason alone I no longer consider him to be electable.  Having a non-viable candidate for President leaves the Republican Party in a difficult position.  The British Labour Party is in the same position IMO. Having a non-viable candidate in a two party electoral system calls into question democracy.

He's not electable....

Really ?? ..

Polls are all skewed in Indiana..

Cruz up by 15 in one and Trump us 6 in another...

Trump wins it's over...He loses its close to being over.

Donald Dares Criticise China...in public too!  Now there's a refreshing bite of fair play, given the grovelling bended knee many National Leaders choose to use instead. "Oh we did raise our concerns for human rights...away from the public in private discussions .... just as the Chinese delegation demanded"

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, - another word banned from the English language?

So that's N*****, H***** and R***.  Soon we'll have a full Cambridge Dictionary full of asterisks, and entire Encyclopaedia volumes dedicated to interesting historic events that few will be able to decipher given the multitude of blotted-out words and phrases.

What word was a problem now?

Oh I can't......................

It's up there already.

Oh okay... I will then........

.........it's R***.

There! I said it, and be damned!

Trump has had some bad news..He's been told he is odds on to win Indiana tonight..

Time to say something else that's stupid....

Apparently he's linking Cruz Dad to the JFK assassination..

Trump reminds me of Richard Pryor in Brewster's millions..

It's gonna be an entertaining four years. Send the kids to bed early, put your feet up and enjoy the show.

If I was Trump I'd start watching "Escape plan" and "Escape from Alcatraz..."

Give him some tips for when Hillary wins in November and starts dishing out presents...

I'd always loan Hillary money...Because she always pays you back twice as much..

Hillary will get mad.  Trump knows this.  And all he knows he has to do to accomplish said task is to repeat some of his more whacky comments.  She'll get loud, she'll get mad, she'll call him this and that; her followers will call him worse stuff (uncensored).  He'll be booed and protesters will try to close him down and stop him speaking.....

...and all the while, the Republicans, with now only one cowboy to follow, will get behind their guy even more in the face of all the insults thrown his way by the 'liberal coastal lefties!'.

If Hillary doesn't hold in the righteous anger, then she'll end up doing most of Trump's work for him as he sits back and watches mid-America come to his rescue.

Trump is the kinda guy that can quickly hang himself but not if his enemies are too eager to do that job themselves.

Demographics have changed....It's why he's twenty points behind..

Hispanics, blacks and women are for Hillary in such numbers..

It isn't even a race...

Still she could still be charged by the FBI...

With Ted Cruz pulling out of the nomination race that leaves only John Kasich to prevent Donald Trump from getting a winning margin.  So it looks a certainty Donald Trump will be the Republican Nominee.

Two Ways Donald Trump wins the Presidency.
Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton vs independent Bernie Sanders.  Sanders & Clinton split the Democrat vote and Trump wins.

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton with some financial scandal hitting Clinton during the presidential race.

Nore Staat wrote:With Ted Cruz pulling out of the nomination race that leaves only John Kasich to prevent Donald Trump from getting a winning margin.  So it looks a certainty Donald Trump will be the Republican Nominee.

At this point you pretty much have to assume Kasich is only staying in to avoid finishing behind Rubio.

Nore Staat wrote:Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton vs independent Bernie Sanders.

Various states have rules that would make it extremely difficult for Sanders to run an independent campaign. The Libertarian party must be delighted though, as they're likely to have the only other candidate who's on every ballot.

Bernie's wife has already stated he won't run independently as he is loyal to the party.

His win in Indiana will be another shock to Hillary as she was expected to sweep home. I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz followers got behind Bernie in the last stretch.

Republicans can't vote in the Democratic primaries.