EU exit - So folks what are you all thinking?

First topic message reminder :

Just curious to know what you all think and what way you will be voting.

Will it have an affect on rugby (from point of view of bringing in non-British players, coaches for example).
Will sterling devalue so that it will be impossible for English clubs to compete with French Euro clubs
What about Scotland? Will this push them out of the UK?
How about Ulster fans - are you looking forward to the reinstallation of the Border?

SecretFly wrote:EU needs to simply admit the game is over.  DOD will love that idea....  

The game is up.  The EU was tried, it isn't working, European Nations still exist, still want to exist - and they all could try something else.
History is full of major resets when things don't work.  Unfortunately, it usually takes a war to bring about the reset.  Pity that humans are so stubborn.  
Let's try doing the New Way peacefully this time?  Decide together to kill off the parasitic, overblown bureaucratic EU gravy train for nod nod lobbyists and pointless talk-shop invisible MEPs

- go back to the purity of the beginning - an ordinary, boring trading bloc without the grandiose United States of Europe politburo crud.

The growing resistant and 'disobedient' Nations aren't the problem - the EU itself is.  Even the fanboys will eventually realise the truth.

The EU was never just a trading block.

DOD - think Fly's opposition to the EU is an anti globalism stance.

Arent Trump/UKIP/AFD/le pen etc all anti globalisation?

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:EU needs to simply admit the game is over.  DOD will love that idea....  

The game is up.  The EU was tried, it isn't working, European Nations still exist, still want to exist - and they all could try something else.
History is full of major resets when things don't work.  Unfortunately, it usually takes a war to bring about the reset.  Pity that humans are so stubborn.  
Let's try doing the New Way peacefully this time?  Decide together to kill off the parasitic, overblown bureaucratic EU gravy train for nod nod lobbyists and pointless talk-shop invisible MEPs

- go back to the purity of the beginning - an ordinary, boring trading bloc without the grandiose United States of Europe politburo crud.

The growing resistant and 'disobedient' Nations aren't the problem - the EU itself is.  Even the fanboys will eventually realise the truth.

The EU was never just a trading block.

DOD - think Fly's opposition to the EU is an anti globalism stance.

But it is easier to quantify the effects of trade (or losing it) Many of the other bits are hard to explain, especially when people just take them for granted

For my sins I have forced myself to watch Question Time on a regular basis. At this stage the only heroic figure that hasn’t been brought up that fought off Johnny Foreigner has been bodecia against the Romans. It’s hilarious.

Having lived in London when Boris was Mayor, I have to wonder what is in a No Deal Brexit for him.

As Mayor he was in the pocket of the developers, notably Chinese investors, affordable housing to Boris was £400K so all the developments that had planning restrictions stating that say 20% of the dwellings had to be affordable, Boris used his powers to lower that and then the level of affordability was set at levels the vast majority could not afford. Case in point Battersea Power Station redevelopment.

Now he is PM he is pushing us headlong into a no deal Brexit, knowing full well that sufficient of the Tory PMs will back the opposition in a vote of no confidence against him, (it only takes one), immediately they get back. It might not be able to stop Brexit, but it means he is out of a job and a general election will be called or worse, Corbyn becomes PM.

A general election is likely to result in a hung parliament so unless the Lib Dems have another Clegg as leader, they will not back the Tories after Brexit. Result Boris is back in Uxbridge as MP, if he gets re-elected.

So what is in it for him, is the big question? He does nothing that he doe snot profit from.

Boris main objective is to keep his job. Having been a europhile for much of his career (to keep his journalism job, then to become mayor) he switched sides to appeal to the Tory membership. I doubt he expected to win, after all he cannot have expected Cameron, Osborne and Corbyn to be so lacklustre.

Now he is actively pushing no deal because:

1) He believes he will be able to present a mildly polished version of May's agreement as a capitulation by EU.
2) Should he fail to get the very minor rewording he needs, Cummings has convinced him that whether he can force no deal through or not, he will storm through a general election by portraying himself as on the side of the people, and traitorous MPs only in it for themselves. View it as our version of the Trump /Banning playbook. Support from Farrage, the bulk of the press plus public distrust of Corbyn could easily see him home. The biggest risk to BoJo could be his Uxbridge Constituents. 

Legally leaving with no deal is the default position currently. Boris if necessary will bluster his way through to All Saints Day and whatever that may bring.

LT, if he loses a vote of no confidence, does that not automatically exclude him from standing as leader of the Tory Party again under Tory party rules.

If so, he cannot be PM after an election.

We are moving into his constituency in October, 2 more votes against him if the election is after we move. Having previously lived in constituencies where Hammond was the MP and next to Gove's constituency we have had some sh!t MPs.

Although I have to respect Hammond for the way he will not bend to the will of Johnson.

From what I have seen and heard locally, the blue rinse brigade love him but anyone under 30..................Urrrghhh and I live in the most Tory of Tory boroughs, neighbour to the Queen and all.

Well Past It - to the best of my knowledge its only if he loses a Tory party vote of no confidence that he ceases to be leader of the Conservative party. Given how popular he is with the membership I don't think that will happen. If he loses a parliamentary vote of no confidence that just means he either stand aside for someone that can win a confidence vote (which he would probably refuse to do), change his program to win a vote of confidence, or call a General election. He would still be tory party leader in that election though, and if he gets a big enough majority he can push his agenda through even with some remain rebels. I think the latter is what he wants, assuming a consolidated leave support base will thrash a fragmented remain vote under first part the post.

Also agree with LT that the biggest risk to Boris is his own constituency. I wonder if he will stand in a safer one (safer for his agenda that is)? Either way the other parties need to look hard at how to work together to beat him.

So if he loses a vote of No Confidence, what does that mean for the TP, Corbyn cannot gather enough support to form a new government, but some of the more centrist Labour MPs might be able to. If a new government was formed under the pretext of seeing us through either a managed Brexit or a no Brexit, I assume they would have until the end of this parliament to do their worst i.e. try and push through a Corbynesque agenda, which will see them kicked out as they have no majority, or see us through to a position where it would take another referendum to allow a Brexit.

Farrage, can sod off to the US to become Trumps spokesperson of Europe and what ever government gets in can increase the education budget sufficient that Brexiteers can see through the propaganda and lies of the Brexit campaign and Trumpism.

Rees Mogg can be loaned out to the Tower of London for life as a perpetual reminder of what happens to people that live in the 17th century.

“If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.”

“Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans? That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU. In or out of the EU, we must have a clear vision of how we are going to be competitive in a global economy.”

A quote from a telegraph piece by Boris Johnson a few years ago when Cameron was PM

Yes, maest.  But he is saying these non-EU problems have been happening from within the EU.  100 years - the first half spent fending off the warlike imperialist desires of continental European states, the second half attached to the EU.
So whilst EU champions might run at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson said our problems weren't caused by the EU".
EU sceptics would rush at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson admits EU membership has not solved British issues, and indeed on the contrary has increased the laziness, lack of competitive spirit, lack of skills, too much indulgence in EU luxuries of sea, sand, sun, sex and South of France wine guzzling."

In brief, inside a too cosy European Union didn't solve British shortfalls. Falling outside the comfort blanket might ramp up the need to fix all those issues finally.

In the 70s the UK was bankrupt. We were bailed out by the IMF and since then things improved. Many things have helped drive this, one of the major ones being our membership of the EU.

Maybe leaving will free us to thrive in a global market. Or maybe we will become a genuine vassal state serving the needs of the "benevolent" US.

SecretFly wrote:Yes, maest.  But he is saying these non-EU problems have been happening from within the EU.  100 years - the first half spent fending off the warlike imperialist desires of continental European states, the second half attached to the EU.
So whilst EU champions might run at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson said our problems weren't caused by the EU".
EU sceptics would rush at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson admits EU membership has not solved British issues, and indeed on the contrary has increased the laziness, lack of competitive spirit, lack of skills, too much indulgence in EU luxuries of sea, sand, sun, sex and South of France wine guzzling."

In brief, inside a too cosy European Union didn't solve British shortfalls.  Falling outside the comfort blanket might ramp up the need to fix all those issues finally.

British problems stem from voting for governments that refused to invest in infrastructure, that were anti-tax, that were after evermore short term gains. Thatcherism is a curse that has ruined the societal mentality that once made Britain strong.

maestegmafia wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Yes, maest.  But he is saying these non-EU problems have been happening from within the EU.  100 years - the first half spent fending off the warlike imperialist desires of continental European states, the second half attached to the EU.
So whilst EU champions might run at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson said our problems weren't caused by the EU".
EU sceptics would rush at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson admits EU membership has not solved British issues, and indeed on the contrary has increased the laziness, lack of competitive spirit, lack of skills, too much indulgence in EU luxuries of sea, sand, sun, sex and South of France wine guzzling."

In brief, inside a too cosy European Union didn't solve British shortfalls.  Falling outside the comfort blanket might ramp up the need to fix all those issues finally.

British problems stem from voting for governments that refused to invest in infrastructure, that were anti-tax, that were after evermore short term gains. Thatcherism is a curse that has ruined the societal mentality that once made Britain strong.

Manufacturing industry was in an appalling state pre Thatcher. She just put much of it out of its misery rather than trying to update it. Have to say the Thatcherite stress filled environment that SecretFly seems to favour hasn't done a great deal for our industry at all. It has improved- but it is more in the area of specialist technology, much of which could be very vulnerable to Brexit. No BMW, VAG or Mercedes for us.

SecretFly wrote:Yes, maest.  But he is saying these non-EU problems have been happening from within the EU.  100 years - the first half spent fending off the warlike imperialist desires of continental European states, the second half attached to the EU.
So whilst EU champions might run at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson said our problems weren't caused by the EU".
EU sceptics would rush at his comment and say "There!  Even Johnson admits EU membership has not solved British issues, and indeed on the contrary has increased the laziness, lack of competitive spirit, lack of skills, too much indulgence in EU luxuries of sea, sand, sun, sex and South of France wine guzzling."

In brief, inside a too cosy European Union didn't solve British shortfalls.  Falling outside the comfort blanket might ramp up the need to fix all those issues finally.

So just to be clear you are saying that Britain’s industrial/manufacturing problems are because of being part of the eu/eec and that leaving it may solve it?

Now you may actually be right I honestly don’t know. But given the uk only joined at the same time as us poor leprechauns not that long ago. Don’t you think you are giving the eu too much credit?

We've really opened a can of worms here eh!

The Yellowhammer docs are saying things like sectarian nonsense could increase in the West Coast of Scotland in the event of a no deal brexit!

A door has been opened that cant be shut now. All this talk of leave/stay, new referendums, borders, the union. With the Scottish courts saying closing parliament is not legal, the leavers in the rest of the UK are now kicking off saying Scotland doesn’t have the right to stop England from leaving the EU so now they want Scotland to be independent so England can leave the EU!

My worry is that the SNP are plotting away in the background and will use the Brexit nonsense to fuel further anti union rhetoric. We could then see another Indy Ref and it could well be that the union is going to be split.

I hand on heart think that is a terrible outcome and I can see Scotland facing the old troubles that Ireland and NI faced with loyalists and republicans kicking off at each other.

In this day and age, wanting to separate yourself from your neighbours is just an odd way of thinking to me and in a world where travel is so easy and everyone can see what everyone else is up to, putting up borders and being divisive just complicates things.

When is the world cup starting? Will be great to have something else on the tele!

I want out.

Sooner the better

TightHEAD wrote:I want out.

Sooner the better

^ This.  I'm BREXIT party all the way at this point, I don't care what any Labour or Tory does, I'm not even going to listen to them.

Shifty wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:I want out.

Sooner the better

^ This.  I'm BREXIT party all the way at this point, I don't care what any Labour or Tory does, I'm not even going to listen to them.

I don't suppose Farage, Widdicombe & Co. could be any worse than that rabble of a Tory Gov. that was on display in the HoC today.

Shifty wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:I want out.

Sooner the better

^ This.  I'm BREXIT party all the way at this point, I don't care what any Labour or Tory does, I'm not even going to listen to them.

Your opinions are no more or less valuable than anyone else's unless you shut your eyes and ears to what is going on. If you don't engage then you don't get a say in what happens next, and please understand there is no such thing as a clean split. This stuff will go on for years.

When they stop people giving a damn about what they do they can do anything.

Shifty wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:I want out.

Sooner the better

^ This.  I'm BREXIT party all the way at this point, I don't care what any Labour or Tory does, I'm not even going to listen to them.

https://nation.cymru/news/brexit-to-cost-wales-over-2-3-billion-in-lost-eu-investment-analysis-shows/

Turkeys voting for Christmas. If you're really lucky, Ford will be the first of many in Bridgend!

BamBam wrote:

Shifty wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:I want out.

Sooner the better

^ This.  I'm BREXIT party all the way at this point, I don't care what any Labour or Tory does, I'm not even going to listen to them.

https://nation.cymru/news/brexit-to-cost-wales-over-2-3-billion-in-lost-eu-investment-analysis-shows/

Turkeys voting for Christmas. If you're really lucky, Ford will be the first of many in Bridgend!

Care to explain these comments ?

Not sure what needs explaining.

Shifty wants a no deal Brexit, I posted a link evaluating what the potential impact on Wales would be from losing EU investment, ie turkeys voting for Christmas

Given Ford have already announced their closure in Bridgend citing Brexit, if Shifty gets really lucky with what he's voting for, Ford will only be the first of many

Is that simple enough to follow?

50 people on a bus, 49 passengers and the driver. Passengers are offered the choice of a day trip to Windsor Castle. It is familiar they have all been there before. Or they can go on a magical mystery tour - no-one knows the destination but it is new and could be exciting. The vote is 25-24 for the mystery tour.

The bus sets off but when it stops at a service station the driver, who lets face was a bit boring is replaced by a much funnier driver. He makes rather risky jokes over the tannoy, but those offended keep quiet. Suddenly while driving at full speed he tells everyone that the destination is Beachy Head and they will be driving off the cliff at full speed. But do not worry if we show some bull dog courage all will be fine.

LondonTiger wrote:50 people on a bus, 49 passengers and the driver. Passengers are offered the choice of a day trip to Windsor Castle. It is familiar they have all been there before. Or they can go on a magical mystery tour - no-one knows the destination but it is new and could be exciting. The vote is 25-24 for the mystery tour.

The bus sets off but when it stops at a service station the driver, who lets face was a bit boring is replaced by a much funnier driver. He makes rather risky jokes over the tannoy, but those offended keep quiet. Suddenly while driving at full speed he tells everyone that the destination is Beachy Head and they will be driving off the cliff at full speed. But do not worry if we show some bull dog courage all will be fine.

Good analogy which has been done before. Worth remembering that, to be more accurate, of the 49 passengers only 35 were permitted to vote, the others being either too young or 'forrin' (of which there were 4) Out of that 35 13 voted for the mystery ride and 12 voted for Windsor and the other 10 couldn't or didn't bother to vote.

Of that 13 who voted for the mystery ride, 3 have sadly departed the bus and been replaced by 3 of the 14 who were too young to vote

BamBam wrote:Not sure what needs explaining.

Shifty wants a no deal Brexit, I posted a link evaluating what the potential impact on Wales would be from losing EU investment, ie turkeys voting for Christmas

Given Ford have already announced their closure in Bridgend citing Brexit, if Shifty gets really lucky with what he's voting for, Ford will only be the first of many

Is that simple enough to follow?

It is more to the fact that you seem to be gloating at the fact that lots of people in Bridgend are losing their jobs, and are hoping that more will follow. It just shows you up for the person you are.

Also, we are not leaving the EU because of Wales/The Welsh, we are leaving because most of the UK voted for it. I know lots of people do not agree, me being one of them, but I accept democracy, and I am now fully behind the result, even if it's just to shut people like you up.

Another thing, a moderator has actually read what you have written and deemed it OK. Poor form.

Yes, pointing out what Wales stands to lose is a definite example of gloating about job losses.

Comprehension and debate clearly aren't your strong points, stick to carpets

BamBam wrote:Turkeys voting for Christmas. If you're really lucky, Ford will be the first of many in Bridgend!

I do not know how to converse

I suggest you keep your suggestions to yourself, there's a good little chap

I'll point out stupidity everywhere I see it

Read LT's post, it brings the debate down to a level you might just be able to understand

I can't even be bothered to explain why I've locked this. If you need it explaining, get a piece of paper and just draw a circle for 10 minutes.

Give you another chance as I'm sure most of you can debate without poor manners.

We're all in this together. Ie we will all be on the ballot for who gets to cook and eat who afterwards.

I am far too fatty, we need to look at those with tasty meat - the boys with muscles.

??

Wot is this thread about again?  Something about Gordon Ramsey eating one of his staff it appears???
As long as he used fava beans, then I have no issue with it.

All our fava beans are imported from Italy, so that may be a problem.

LondonTiger wrote:All our fava beans are imported from Italy, so that may be a problem.

Finally a real reason for tearing up Article 50.

I voted to remain, I was gutted when the result came out, but here we are, we live in a democracy, and we have to respect that. I know want us out, just to move on.

Now, since the result, our MP's have seriously let us down, and what some are doing, to hold off brexit, it must be against the law, our MP's are not respecting democracy, something we pride ourselves in, and some thing we went to war to protect 70 years ago. As soon as our MP's started their nonsense, it was advantage EU, they had us by the short and curly's.

But besides LT's attempt to poke fun, he has seriously touched on something that we have to bargain with in our pocket.

OK, I am no fan of Boris Johnson, he is an oaf, but the best thing he has done, is put no deal back on the table, and he is serious about going down that road, what has this now done ? Well, BMW, Mercedies, Volkswagon, all the car giants in Europe, they see the UK as their cash cow, that is what they call us, also, we are the biggest consumers of prosecco in the world, it all comes from Italy, French wine, Belgian chocolate, the Irish farming industries rely on the UK to take just a few examples. If the EU do not deal with us, then the economies within EU would collapse like a house of cards. They need us, as much as we need them, but no deal now puts the UK back on the front foot.  

Something has to happen, no deal will not happen, but the fact that we can now break away without a deal will now put the fear of God into Brussels and they would be forced to be more cooperative.

Just to end, we are leaving, we might not like it, but we are, we might as well get used to it, and we need to put pressure on these MP's who are deliberately causing mischief to suit their own ends. They are ruining our country, not brexit.

No it is Brexit. Out of interest what made you move from initially preferring leave to voting remain? Not a lot of people publically come out as changing their minds.

No 7&1/2 wrote:No it is Brexit. Out of interest what made you move from initially preferring leave to voting remain? Not a lot of people publically come out as changing their minds.

When I realised it was more to do with our MP's trying to suit their own ends, and what it could potentially do for industry in the UK. But I am still sick to the back teeth with what remaining in the EU would mean to us.

At first I wanted to leave because of immigration and the fact that we had somebody in Brussels, who probably did not know where my town is on a map, or has ever been to my town, or surrounding area, making decisions on our rates, and how we should run a business. Becuase of the EU, my business pays the same rates as a multinational business in Cardiff. Small businesses have to fight tooth and nail to survive and they are the backbone of this country.

Also, brexit is not ruining our country, the people who we trust to deliver it are ruining our country.

Boris Johnson's own sister thinks he might be beholden to those who have invested billions shorting the £ in the event of a no deal. That is the reality of the situation, and all those babbling about German car manufacturers and French cheese have literally no clue

The guy went back to the EU with Theresa May's withdrawal agreement and just crossed out the backstop - is this meant to be a serious negotiating strategy intended to get a deal?

Cummings is far cleverer than any Tory, and he knows how to weaponize the gammon brigade - he's already at it with the "surrender, betrayal, appeasement" narrative, and has already started flooding Facebook with those slogans aimed solely at the over 45s, because that is the most gullible, most susceptible group. Half of them think Brexit means no more brown and black faces like mine, as seen by the numerous cases of people being told to "go home we voted to leave"

The referendum was called to try and keep the Tory party in power, not for the good of the country. We're heading for no deal to keep the Tory party in power, not for the good of the country.

No deal will be fine.

Quite honest of you LD. Impressed with that at least!

Based on the 2011 census, the town of Merthyr Tydfil had a population of 58,802.

Length of Residence in the UK
Born in the UK - 56,161
Resident in the UK for less than 2 years - 487
Resident in the UK for 2 to 5 years - 830
Resident in the UK for 5 to 10 years - 668
Resident in the UK for 10 years or more - 656

http://www.ukcensusdata.com/merthyr-tydfil-w06000024#sthash.bcVnivXK.TPHJYvkz.dpbs

Yes, immigration must be destroying the way of life up in Merthyr

I think it will cut down on foreign players in england (top level ones at least). Not a good thing for me.

LordDowlais wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:No it is Brexit. Out of interest what made you move from initially preferring leave to voting remain? Not a lot of people publically come out as changing their minds.

When I realised it was more to do with our MP's trying to suit their own ends, and what it could potentially do for industry in the UK. But I am still sick to the back teeth with what remaining in the EU would mean to us.

At first I wanted to leave because of immigration and the fact that we had somebody in Brussels, who probably did not know where my town is on a map, or has ever been to my town, or surrounding area, making decisions on our rates, and how we should run a business. Becuase of the EU, my business pays the same rates as a multinational business in Cardiff. Small businesses have to fight tooth and nail to survive and they are the backbone of this country.

You are talking about Business Rates? If so the control of the rules around that is totally within the remit of the Government, with local councils then setting the amount. For our business site in Scotland the Scottish Government have given us a reduction due to devolved taxation powers, for our Cambridgeshire site we do not get the same as despite talking big our Westminster Parliament is beholden to Amazon etc. 

Of course if you are talking about something else, you can ignore what I have written (though please explain to me what you mean)

He is talking about that but in regards to what he initially thought. He changed his mind.

No 7&1/2 wrote:I think it will cut down on foreign players in england (top level ones at least). Not a good thing for me.

How so?

If you look at football as an example being from within or outside of the EU makes very little difference if you're regarded as a special talent.