EU exit - So folks what are you all thinking?

First topic message reminder :

Just curious to know what you all think and what way you will be voting.

Will it have an affect on rugby (from point of view of bringing in non-British players, coaches for example).
Will sterling devalue so that it will be impossible for English clubs to compete with French Euro clubs
What about Scotland? Will this push them out of the UK?
How about Ulster fans - are you looking forward to the reinstallation of the Border?

Exiledinborders wrote:What do we think of Brexit?

After the election I think we are leaving the EU which we should have left more than a year ago. I say this as someone who voted to remain who respects other people’s votes.

I think it may well happen but its still a dumb idea that is all but impossible to pull off without a great deal of pain. And we have a moron taking us into this.

The idiots who voted to 'get Brexit done' are disproportionally going to be done by Brexit

I do respect that there was a vote but despair over how it was sold and the lack of clarity of the reality of it all. I don't respect the result because it was too close for such a massive decision and its still a dumb idea. The result of the vote should have been to have left Brexit on the table, not the years of chaos we have had instead.

No need to respect a campaign which broke the law.

So hard brexit it is, with a Canada style FTA with no political ties finally confirmed to be the plan.

Great news for the bloke who runs weatherspoons no doubt, probably not for the rest of us.

I despair, so we are leaving the EU based on what 35% of the electorate voted after a very dodgy campaign. When is that Russian report being published? After Friday's vote I should think....

Nothing to be done about it now though, what a colossal **** up.

stub wrote:I despair, so we are leaving the EU based on what 35% of the electorate voted after a very dodgy campaign. When is that Russian report being published? After Friday's vote I should think....

Nothing to be done about it now though, what a colossal **** up.

From the center left or even center right perspective maybe, however for the far right it has been a master class in political engineering.

rodders wrote:

stub wrote:I despair, so we are leaving the EU based on what 35% of the electorate voted after a very dodgy campaign. When is that Russian report being published? After Friday's vote I should think....

Nothing to be done about it now though, what a colossal **** up.

From the center left or even center right perspective maybe, however for the far right it has been a master class in political engineering.    

Yup Rodders, bang on the money there.

stub wrote:I despair, so we are leaving the EU based on what 35% of the electorate voted after a very dodgy campaign. When is that Russian report being published? After Friday's vote I should think....

Nothing to be done about it now though, what a colossal **** up.

If you don't vote then you have no opinion so based on 52% of the voting electorate.

Massive decision though based upon 35% of potential opinions.

Regardless, all water under the bridge now.

52% of opinions.

its not surprising its happening.

the UK is one of the very few countries in Europe where i would have confidence that the referendum would carry its decision, because ultimately, whatever people believe in terms of Brexit, we in the UK care a lot about democracy.

in the 2017 general election, both major parties campaigned on a manifesto of delivering brexit and each party received a share of the national vote not seen in 20+ years and the lib dems and brexit party got wiped out.

to imagine that in the next GE, a Labour campaigning to do who the hell knows what on Brext but certainly not deliver it, would do anything other than get punished, was shown for wishful thinking.

London based media, london based left wing labour, lost touch with traditional Labour. See what Andy Burnham has said about this. he was not surprised about the Tory landslide.

if labour had a leader who didnt hate the UK, its military, and rewarding people for hard work, and they also promised to deliver Brexit, then they could possibly have won....

This is the labour party who voted through the transition yes?
The hard work thing is just silly and plays to the privilege some people pretend not to have. They do need to pander to those people more and wrap them in self delusion.

quinsforever wrote:its not surprising its happening.

the UK is one of the very few countries in Europe where i would have confidence that the referendum would carry its decision, because ultimately, whatever people believe in terms of Brexit, we in the UK care a lot about democracy.

in the 2017 general election, both major parties campaigned on a manifesto of delivering brexit and each party received a share of the national vote not seen in 20+ years and the lib dems and brexit party got wiped out.
...

The 'I don't want to walk over a cliff but we voted for it so we are going to damn well do it!' argument.

I do have a huge problem with Labour in that they did not oppose Brexit. I appreciate that its not their job to make remain a policy (although I wish it were otherwise) but they could have gone after the procedural side properly. Attacked the how - on which the Tories were hopeless, rather than the why. They could have gone after the Cambridge Analytica/ Russian interference stuff so much harder than they did. So many open goals missed, but, you know, 'buses'...

Their promises of doing their own version, not dumb in itself, just came across as just an exercise in repeating the mistakes that the Tories had made all the way through.

quinsforever wrote:its not surprising its happening.

the UK is one of the very few countries in Europe where i would have confidence that the referendum would carry its decision, because ultimately, whatever people believe in terms of Brexit, we in the UK care a lot about democracy.

I think it is clear the UK is probably the least democratic country in the Western world. For several reasons, here are some -

First past the post electoral system.

No written constitution. Including among other things no actual right to vote or hold an election.

The sitting government can temporarily and strategically suspend parliament with consent of the monarchy at any point.

The sitting government can vote to give itself executive powers to make and amend laws without scrutiny from the HOL or parliament e.g. the repeal act.

Even the USA has much more checks and balances in place to curb the powers of the president, the UK (post brexit) by contrast is a potential fascist utopia.

Now they want to reduce the power of the courts.

the fact the Tories got a landslide after all their supposedly undemocratic actions over the last year, shows that those are just labels slapped on by those who disagree with a policy.

democracy is alive and well in the UK. lack of a written constitution is a strength imo. other countries need written constitutions to protect democracy. we just vote our politicians out when we have had enough of them.

No it doesn't. You do sum up a lot of voters though.

quinsforever wrote:the fact the Tories got a landslide after all their supposedly undemocratic actions over the last year, shows that those are just labels slapped on by those who disagree with a policy.

democracy is alive and well in the UK. lack of a written constitution is a strength imo. other countries need written constitutions to protect democracy. we just vote our politicians out when we have had enough of them.

Something that is a lot easier to say from the other side of the world.

We may well have ended up in the same situation regardless of what happened or didn't happen. But there are so many unanswered questions all the way through this process, from illegal funding and questionable tactics through the referendum, to those same people behind vote leave moving to run Boris, Boris's dodging of any scrutiny during the election campaign and of course the report on Russian interference in British politics which the cabinet office decided could not be published just yet, despite everyone else saying it could.

Its just so immensely frustrating that such an important matter has not been decided on the rights, wrongs and practicalities, but instead because the guy on one side is useless and the guy on the other is as dodgy as hell.

One good thing about the Brexit issue is that in the UK it has been settled at the ballot box. Yes there have been demonstrations and there have been court cases but despite it being the most divisive issue for decades there has been no violence. The contrast with other EU states is stark. In France a change to pensions results in petrol bomb throwing, baton charges and general mayhem. In Malta journalists are murdered by the government. In Hungary opponents are jailed and the ballots fixed.

Isolated violence rather than widespread. January 2021 is when things are likely to kick off.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Isolated violence rather than widespread. January 2021 is when things are likely to kick off.

I dearly hope it doesn't kick off, but the whole process of getting to this point seems to have relied upon appealing to some very dark tendencies. If the magic money tree stops giving to the people 'up North' who seemed to have voted for the Conservatives as a protest against the government, and they run out of faceless people to blame its easy to imagine that things could get messy.

LondonTiger wrote:

I suppose things are exactly as they were nearly 30 years ago.

?


Misprint?

"Europe, Here we Go!"?

70s typesetters - goons.

few days til the UK leaves

rugby implications?

have skills, can travel, so i dont see any issue with movement of personnel from UK to EU rugby teams and vice versa.

am sure i am missing something though.

Sounds like soccer will be impacted, apparently international transfers of U-18's are banned except between EU member states or countries within the EEA.

I'm not sure how much recruitment takes place between rugby clubs at under age level.

Post December when the withdrawal period ends, one would presume border controls will be a lot stricter travelling between the mainland UK to Ireland and mainland Europe, so perhaps a bit of more logistics for 6N away games will be there.

rodders wrote:Sounds like soccer will be impacted, apparently  international transfers of U-18's are banned except between EU member states or countries within the EEA.

I'm not sure how much recruitment takes place between rugby clubs at under age level.

Post December when the withdrawal period ends, one would presume border controls will be a lot stricter travelling between the mainland UK to Ireland and mainland Europe, so perhaps a bit of more logistics for 6N away games will be there.

Regardless of Brexit more needs to be done to stop uprooting young players from abroad to then jettison them in a few years time when they don't progress, it's not exactly a bad thing to stop happening.

Nothing is affected during the transition period which lasts until at least 31st december.

The big impact on Rugby might be the end of the Kolpak regulations under which players from Pacific Islands and South Africa have same rights as EU citizens to play. Presumably they will have to get a work permit now which might be easy for internationals but not so easy for club players.

Whether that is a good thing is debatable. Might be good for the England team as it will free up places for young players.

May shouldve got us a better deal than two tries for a bonus point

No 7&1/2 wrote:Nothing is affected during the transition period which lasts until at least 31st december.

Incorrect, some companies are already starting to hike prices to deliver to the UK - they won't wait the withdrawal period ends, especially as it is clear now there will be tariffs and restrictions on goods post December.

rodders wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Nothing is affected during the transition period which lasts until at least 31st december.

Incorrect, some companies are already starting to hike prices to deliver to the UK - they won't wait the withdrawal period ends, especially as it is clear now there will be tariffs and restrictions on goods post December.

do you actually believe this?

companies raise prices if they think the price hikes will stick. nothing to do with tariffs, quotas, delivery costs. its only to do with competition and what the consumers will absorb.

Unlikely to do with tariffs at the moment (if happening as I haven't seen the evidence of that). Clearly at the end of the transition period it seems almost certain now prices will rise as a direct result.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Unlikely to do with tariffs at the moment (if happening as I haven't seen the evidence of that). Clearly at the end of the transition period it seems almost certain now prices will rise as a direct result.

that will depend very much on what tariffs we in the UK impose on goods from the rest of the world which currently have EU tariff and quotas imposed...

yes prices may rise short term, but once we are not subject to EU quotas, particularly on fruit for example (to protect spanish and italian growers), there is every chance prices for some things could fall as non-EU producers sell to us at the market rate...

one thing is certain. it's not as straightforward as rodders would have people believe

Well we lose free market access to the eu and obviously lose the trade deals that we have now. I heard we had 4 ready to be signed last Monday. Apparently that was another lie. Goes hand in hand with the leavers.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Well we lose free market access to the eu and obviously lose the trade deals that we have now. I heard we had 4 ready to be signed last Monday. Apparently that was another lie. Goes hand in hand with the leavers.

A pompous disposition goes hand in hand with remainers.

Ah you must be one of the guys who is annoyed they got hoodwinked by leave lies soul?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Ah you must be one of the guys who is annoyed they got hoodwinked by leave lies soul?

Ah that must be it, I must be a stupid leave voter who doesn't understand anything who was most certainly conned into voting the way I did. It's either that or I think people like you are.....

Oh is that the good old 'I don't care how bad things get for me as long as its worse for you' argument?

lostinwales wrote:Oh is that the good old 'I don't care how bad things get for me as long as its worse for you' argument?

I'm just sick of having idiots making out that all leavers voted the way they did because of Farage and co despite for many it being in spite of them.

Soul Requiem wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Oh is that the good old 'I don't care how bad things get for me as long as its worse for you' argument?

I'm just sick of having idiots making out that all leavers voted the way they did because of Farage and co despite for many it being in spite of them.

They didn't. And I have respect for the people who have had long running anti EU feelings even if I think they are wrong. But what won the stupid non binding/ once in a lifetime this is it and we must never question the decision again referendum was that enough idiots did vote leave based on lies and propaganda.

lostinwales wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Oh is that the good old 'I don't care how bad things get for me as long as its worse for you' argument?

I'm just sick of having idiots making out that all leavers voted the way they did because of Farage and co despite for many it being in spite of them.

They didn't. And I have respect for the people who have had long running anti EU feelings even if I think they are wrong. But what won the stupid non binding/ once in a lifetime this is it and we must never question the decision again referendum was that enough idiots did vote leave based on lies and propaganda.

In fairness there are a lot of idiots who voted remain too that gets forgotten in all this, to be honest I'm not for everyone having a right to vote.

it will not be as bad as the doommongers hope

see Nissan's backup plan report in the FT. if WTO 10 tariffs apply, ditch production in Europe where they dont sell that many cars, and aim for 20% market share in UK which would leave their state of the art facility in the UK running at 80-90% capacity.

businesses adapt. they lobby in the meantime. but in the end they adapt. it wont all be bad.

It's all dependant on what deal is made. For instance if your example above is meant to imply we leave without a deal it makes no sense for Nissan to remain here when they could move to the eu and get tariff free access to the eu. Doubt that would stop rugby players coming here. Some may have slight doubts on the road in racism and glare crimes brexit had helped expose.

quinsforever wrote:it will not be as bad as the doommongers hope

see Nissan's backup plan report in the FT. if WTO 10 tariffs apply, ditch production in Europe where they dont sell that many cars, and aim for 20% market share in UK which would leave their state of the art facility in the UK running at 80-90% capacity.

businesses adapt. they lobby in the meantime. but in the end they adapt. it wont all be bad.

I read the piece. The key quote:

" We deny such a contingency plan exists,” said a spokesman for Nissan Europe. “We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs . . . We continue to urge UK and EU negotiators to work collaboratively towards an orderly balanced Brexit that will continue to encourage mutually beneficial trade.”

All the noise about a 20% market share is just nonsense - they are currently at around 4% of new car sales if I recall correctly. Even if the 20% market share was a true and achievable target, do you not recognise that it would be an outcome of a Brexit that meant the cost of buying any car manufactured outside of the UK would be beyond all British buyers?

Brexit is happening and I accept it reluctantly. Its the sheer disinformation, bare faced lies and twisting of reports and quotes that I can't get over.

quinsforever wrote:

rodders wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Nothing is affected during the transition period which lasts until at least 31st december.

Incorrect, some companies are already starting to hike prices to deliver to the UK - they won't wait the withdrawal period ends, especially as it is clear now there will be tariffs and restrictions on goods post December.

do you actually believe this?

companies raise prices if they think the price hikes will stick. nothing to do with tariffs, quotas, delivery costs. its only to do with competition and what the consumers will absorb.

Tariff's are just one aspect, if goods need to be checked at customs then there is an administrative cost which will be passed to the consumer. Some smaller companies are already adding this to export to the UK in expectation of this.

quinsforever wrote:it will not be as bad as the doommongers hope

see Nissan's backup plan report in the FT. if WTO 10 tariffs apply, ditch production in Europe where they dont sell that many cars, and aim for 20% market share in UK which would leave their state of the art facility in the UK running at 80-90% capacity.

businesses adapt. they lobby in the meantime. but in the end they adapt. it wont all be bad.

Where do you think Nissan will source their parts and materials from?

Business adapt by adjusting prices and relocating to where costs and conditions are most advantageous, If there are tariffs on UK goods going to the EU, where does the UK hold competitive advantage for business post Brexit?

The answer is as a low wage, light standard and low cost exporter to outside the EU to the US, China, South America and India.

Expect a no deal/WTO exit from the EU, followed very quickly by legislative changes, expedited under the repeal act, to reduce labor and business regulations which will be justified as necessary to help UK business stay competitive against cheap imports.

Why do you think the UK is so keen to avoid any legally binding alignment commitments to EU standards?

It's not doom-mongering it is all very clear what lies ahead and whether or not any of us will benefit or not from being outside the EU, depending on our individual circumstance. I'd suggest if you work for a living then most likely not.

rodders wrote:
Why do you think the UK is so keen to avoid any legally binding alignment commitments to EU standards?

It's not doom-mongering it is all very clear what lies ahead and whether or not any of us will benefit or not from being outside the EU, depending on our individual circumstance. I'd suggest if you work for a living then most likely not.

So EU standards increase the cost of production, increase the cost of products to the consumer, increase the cost of living, increase the wages demanded by workers?
It's natural.  It's a natural flow.

So in that full economic loop, where's the brake? The EU adds more and more 'standards', as they are very much more an habitual law creating legislative body than a simple Trading bloc/entity.  They won't stop producing higher standards for everything because that's how they do the 'protectionist' element and create an internal captive market for EU produced goods.
Ask any farmer you might know, for example, how much bookwork is now demanded from people who simply want to, have the skills to and enjoyed producing foodstuffs for the market.  Farmers are not natural Office people - they are producers.  
Employing someone else to look after the bookwork increases their costs.  That finally gets to the consumer.  Getting a spouse to do the bookwork for free is giving the State yet another unpaid worker bee.

Yes, there is a need for quality assurances when public health is to be considered but farmers know how many acres of the paperwork is excessive and actively designed to kill off their enthusiasm so that Agriculture becomes solely a big industry with large companies controlling most agricultural acreage. Excessive Standards kill off people who wish to Work for a living.

So the alternative?  The loop in reverse?  Less bureaucratic standards and compliance paperwork, less cost of production, less price to the consumer, more competitiveness with the larger world outside EU borders, less burden on consumers buying services and products, less need for soaring salaries.... but still income enough to live comfortably within that alternative loop?
Greed creates the template for ever increasing standard demands as companies themselves can lobby for tougher codes as they know doing so forces weaker competitors out of the market and indeed, as a consequence, virtually turns their services or products into mandatory purchases.  But greed creates the first chunk in that Standards loop that goes all the way to ever highening costs of living v ever increasing need for more income.[/quote]

SecretFly wrote:
Greed creates the template for ever increasing standard demands as companies themselves can lobby for tougher codes as they know doing so forces weaker competitors out of the market and indeed, as a consequence, virtually turns their services or products into mandatory purchases.  But greed creates the first chunk in that Standards loop that goes all the way to ever highening costs of living v ever increasing need for more income.

Fly that is a really good point. But if you look at the US for example, where regulation is much less there is no evidence that this helps competitiveness. In fact the opposite  is true with big business having much greater control.

The bottom line is EU rules means higher standards and wages, within the bloc and for those who wish to trade with it without restrictions. The downside is higher costs but in my view that is better than the alternative where you have multi nationals going completely unregulated and dictating government policy, something much harder to do with a supranational body like the EU, as the likes of Murdoch and Trump have openly admitted.  

If the EU really does benefit primarily the big business then why primarily do it's critics and enemies come from right of center?

there is so much wrong with your post it's impossible to know where to start

bottom line. the EU cannot stop itself from REGULATING in the belief that IT KNOWS BEST.

the UK, and US, believe that CONSUMERS and INDIVIDUALS are the best ones to make their own decisions and that the market (and not government regulation) is the best way for an economy to allocate resources to meet that consumer demand.

i know which system my bet is on in anything beyond the very political short-term.

Question for you quins. What version of brexit would you consider a failure?