Brexit

First topic message reminder :

Funniest thing to happen in years. Have been following the craziness on the FT. Despite the implications if our current crop of retards manage to push it through I can't remember when I've read the news everyday without fail and learned something new. What does everyone think of the possibility that we stay in the single market, retain freedom of movement. Pay into the EU coffers and lose our vote ??

21 percent think the Government will get a good deal out of Brexit..

As for 36 billion being touted as exit material..

Thought there wasn't any money to give people like Teachers and Nurses a pay rise ??.

Amateur night.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:21 percent think the Government will get a good deal out of Brexit..

As for 36 billion being touted as exit material..

Thought there wasn't any money to give people like Teachers and Nurses a pay rise ??.

Amateur night.

Definitely. By any rights, this should be the end of their political careers.

To try and kick some life into this a bit, has Brexit been one of the worst thought out things that a government has done and what do you know of that has been similar?

The Dangerous Dogs act, CSA, practically anything that the "Guillotine" Act was used on.

Joe Kinnear as manager of Newcastle.

The time my friend jumped off the church roof and broke his leg.

Arthur Fonzerelli jumping over a shark.

The time that Olaf the Hairy ordered 10,000 helmets with the horns on the inside.

What's the 'guillotine' act?

It is more commonly known as the Guillotine motion to be honest, but it is a parliamentary mechanism which allows the house of commons to cut out any kind of review in the house of lords. Which invariably ends in legislation riddled with errors and inconsistent clauses, which are generally unenforceable.

Derbymanc wrote:To try and kick some life into this a bit, has Brexit been one of the worst thought out things that a government has done and what do you know of that has been similar?

No, bout only by virtue of never having been thought out...

Cameron would have been secure from UKIP even without the pledge of the referendum, and then he (and others) mis-handled the remain campaign by never making the case for being in the EU (rather than reasons for not leaving), and even then didn't really expect to lose the vote. There was never really a plan as to what to do if the Referendum came out for Leave, and since then the Government has been winging it, plus ham-stringing themselves with an unnecessary General Election, which both took up two months and resulted in a weaker position for the Tories in the end.

It is the very definition of Omnishambles

I find that brexit is like a religion for a lot of brexiteers meaning that they just believe in it no matter if they have a valid reason,

for eg brexiteers may claim that they want to leave the eu because it is undemocratic, when you ask them what makes it undemocratic they say unelected officials making laws. Even if you point out to them that they are all elected eg meps are voted for by the public and meps vote on laws and the council are elected by state governments who are also voted for by the people they still refuse to believe it.

some brexiteers claim they don't like eu laws and only want British laws, when you ask them what laws they don't like they can't answer it.

they wont change their mind on brexit though even if you show them that they were lied to by the daily mail etc they just blindly want to believe in brexit, like a religious nutjob.

I would imagine some (hiya) are feeling a bit daft on just how unorganised the whole thing has become.

Muscular-mouse wrote:I find that brexit is like a religion for a lot of brexiteers meaning that they just believe in it no matter if they have a valid reason,

for eg brexiteers may claim that they want to leave the eu because it is undemocratic, when you ask them what makes it undemocratic they say unelected officials making laws. Even if you point out to them that they are all elected eg meps are voted for by the public and meps vote on laws and the council are elected by state governments who are also voted for by the people they still refuse to believe it.

some brexiteers claim they don't like eu laws and only want British laws, when you ask them what laws they don't like they can't answer it.

they wont change their mind on brexit though even if you show them that they were lied to by the daily mail etc they just blindly want to believe in brexit, like a religious nutjob.

Actually the 'undemocratic' arguments are amongst the stronger anti-EU arguments - while the MEPs are voted for, they have minimal real power, and it is a combination of the Commission (i.e. the EU Civil Service) and the Council (the representatives of the national governments + Tusk) that actually hold any real legislative power. Of course the UK Government is as much run by the Civil Servants in Whitehall as it is Parliament, so we're really just trading in 'their' bureaucrats for ours.

One of the Brexit lies was exposed yesterday - our net contribution to the EU last year was about half of the £350 million per day claimed, even excluding money that comes back in e.g. Europe-wide research grants (difficult to account directly, but thought to account for about £1.5 billion out of the £8 billion net contribution)

Well the commission are elected 1 per member state (government elects them) and member state governments are elected by the people so really it is democracy it is just representative democracy rather than direct eg you vote for people and they make a decision on your behalf.

I wouldn't say meps have minimal real power, they vote on whether eu laws should be passed or not.

Derbymanc wrote:I would imagine some (hiya) are feeling a bit daft on just how unorganised the whole thing has become.

It is incredibly unorganised, and after nearly 6 months of negotiations we actually don't have anything agreed on.

Labour rebels are right to talk about staying in the single market.

Problem is..

1. Corbyn won't shift and with 60 percent of members no one dare challenge him.

2. If moderates start a new party..Labour polled 40% in GE 2017 and no one from the right will risk Corbyn in Downing Street...Career suicide for any non Corbyn heavyweight to join a new party.

Left v Right..Forget the center ground.

Trump..Corbyn..Sanders..Brexit....It's a new politics and maybe an "All bets are off" politics is good.

Maybe we will get politicians that engage in future..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Labour rebels are right to talk about staying in the single market.

Problem is..

1. Corbyn won't shift and with 60 percent of members no one dare challenge him.

2. If moderates start a new party..Labour polled 40% in GE 2017 and no one from the right will risk Corbyn in Downing Street...Career suicide for any non Corbyn heavyweight to join a new party.

Left v Right..Forget the center ground.

Trump..Corbyn..Sanders..Brexit....It's a new politics and maybe an "All bets are off" politics is good.

Maybe we will get politicians that engage in future..

I think that we will have a 2nd referendum on Europe anyway. After all the negotiations are done we will be offered a leave the eu on the terms negotiated or stay in the EU referendum.

The last referendum was so close and it is such a big political decision for generations that we do really need a 2nd referendum.

https://twitter.com/StuartWilksHeeg/status/481452927610257409

Mad for Chelsea wrote:https://twitter.com/StuartWilksHeeg/status/481452927610257409

Breaking 2014 news.

yeah I know, but only found it this morning as it seems to have resurfaced somehow. Just thought it was amusing TBH, as whenever you ask Brexiteers which laws the EU has "forced" on us they usually Hmm and Ahh a bit before going "it's the principle of the thing!".

I love it when a brexiteer says that they voted to leave because they don't like EU laws because I always reply with 'which laws do you dislike' to which they can't actually name any. It literally happens with every brexit supporter.

Muscular-mouse wrote:Well the commission are elected 1 per member state (government elects them) and member state governments are elected by the people so really it is democracy it is just representative democracy rather than direct eg you vote for people and they make a decision on your behalf.

I wouldn't say meps have minimal real power, they vote on whether eu laws should be passed or not.

Not only that, the President of the Commission (Juncker at the moment), is elected by the European Parliament and the Council (28 leaders of countries) are more or less obliged to go along with what they say. Merkel (like Cameron) didn't want Juncker, but unlike Cameron, she bit her lip and didn't throw her toys out of the pram over it.

Juncker election by European Parliament:

The European Parliament confirmed Juncker as European Commission President, by 422 votes in favour out of 729. He needed at least 376. 250 MEPs voted against, 47 abstained and 10 votes were considered invalid.

He got 26 votes to 2 by the Council of Ministers (Cameron & Orban).

It was interesting to hear someone say that the British negotiating team were disappointed to hear that Michel Barnier had absolutely no room to manouvre in the negotiations. The Council of Ministers are pulling all the strings for that one. Barnier has been given his guidelines and he has to stick to them.

Anyway, the whole thing is a right mess from everyone's point of view.

Muscular-mouse wrote:I love it when a brexiteer says that they voted to leave because they don't like EU laws because I always reply with 'which laws do you dislike' to which they can't actually name any. It literally happens with every brexit supporter.

I'm getting a bit tired of this stuff at this stage. With regard to the Irish border, the British Gov. are saying that to facilitate an open border, one of the options would be for the UK to adopt all EU standards so that nothing effectively changes. Elsewhere, Arlene Foster is saying that one of the reasons to vote for Brexit is to get rid of all these EU rules and regs, and since the DUP advised the British Gov. on what to do about the Irish border, she doesn't seem to think that she is contradicting what British Gov. are saying!

She went onto say something about global Britain and how NI would be better able to compete outside the EU, which is complete boloney of course. The EU hasn't stopped the ROI for example, exporting all over the world.

Think they should do research on how many voted for the 350m into the NHS crap and if the number is significant.

Have another ref.

Hopefully this'll show that instead of trying to smear sides it would be better to just come out with the benefits of whatever your campaigning for.

Think we should Trussy baby

Hope all this talk of 50 billion is nonsense for the Tories sake.....

Nighty night.......If that kind of money gets handed over..

They have absolutely no idea of what they're doing. Davis is clearly out of his depth.

Out of his depth based on the words of Barnier who seems to think he and the EU can bully us, each day that passes solidifies my desire to leave.

Please explain how the EU asking the UK to pay what it has committed to is bullying.

We dont know what we are doing, we have no concensus and we are totally unprepared for this.

LionsV2 wrote:Out of his depth based on the words of Barnier who seems to think he and the EU can bully us, each day that passes solidifies my desire to leave.

In a lot of things you seem to be a realist so not sure what's happened regarding this. The EU isn't bullying anyone. The EU didn't trigger article 50 before they were ready, nor did they post out vague aspiration on their position papers. All they want is that we agree on principles of the bill so they can move on to the next phase. If we don't cough up what we previously promised why should they spend considerable resources on working on a new deal. There seems to be a confusion around divorce bill which is a bit of a misnomer as it's mostly a past commitments bill.

The strange thing is that we're hanging it up on such a small amount of money relatively because most of it is money we will pay anyway while we are still in the union and the transition phase. So by the end of it it'll be about 4 - 10 billion and out of that we will be getting some back as it's regarding loans to Ukraine etc. Then if we take UK pension liabilities on and add it to the civil service bill because that's what they are effectively you've ended up with a small amount.

The issue seems to be a political one and reneging on past commitments is not a good way to start negotiations on future deals with the EU or anyone else. This will lead to ironclad clauses in the contract in which our sovereignty is genuinely threatened as we will be held liable for any losses companies from the other contracting country incur if we change the laws for example. It will also increase the amount we borrow and the cost of borrowing and the reputation damage will stick around long after we are both dead.

It makes no sense to blame the EU for looking after its member states interests when all the laws we are now struggling with were our own idea. We built the wall then moved ourselves outside of it and now want the EU to knock down the wall so that we can benefit from it. Unfortunately if they knock down the wall for us they would be obliged to do it for others as WTO rules demand. It would damage the integrity of the whole project unless they changed the laws to suit us.

As for Barnier threatening, he has said that no one has genuinely explained ... the word he used is explained not educate or teach...that's just mischief on the part of UK papers. It's a truth, most people don't have a clue and once they find out what it involves they will balk but by then it may be too late. For example it my end up that neither UK licenses are valid on the continent and EU licenses are not valid here so transporting food becomes a complete nightmare and most of it is spoiled at the borders. Hundreds of things like these will crop up and cause hassle, shortages and increased costs. That's why this minor quibbling over what is already peanuts and becomes even less once you take out what already exist's is baffling everyone with a bit of sense

Yeah Shah, but what about the fact that they are foreigners? Add that to the fact that we used to have an Empire and that we won two World Wars against their sort and I think you'll find that your argument just doesn't stand up.

I know you're mocking him but you've kind of made another point for consideration. As they are foreigners they have a different format of government or a different method where coalitions are the norm the evil sneaky bar stewards. So they're used to compromise and know well enough that once you have consensus you leave well enough alone. It's difficult enough to juggle competing interests once per issue let alone go back and juggle them again under different conditions. So our intransigence in the face of a reasonable request in an attempt to divide and conquer the EU is probably not going to work. Then you have to consider that divisions are counterproductive as we want unanimity so that our deal is sorted in time renders the whole thing moronic. He acknowledges that it's a race against time but he is the one holding it up

Pr4wn wrote:They have absolutely no idea of what they're doing. Davis is clearly out of his depth.

catchweight wrote:We dont know what we are doing, we have no concensus and we are totally unprepared for this.

Absolutely right.

LionsV2 wrote:Out of his depth based on the words of Barnier who seems to think he and the EU can bully us, each day that passes solidifies my desire to leave.

Well, yes, the EU can bully us. They have the whip hand as was pointed out when that idiot, Fox, whined about so-called 'blackmail' - only the one with the crappy hand shouts about 'blackmail'.

Davis knows what he is doing...Stalling for time.

The problem is the Government have no idea what kind of deal they want....

You can't negotiate without a position from which to manoeuvre.

Anyone would be out of their depth in Davis' position. None of the politicians have a clue how to handle this.

Totally ill thought out disaster with a timeframe thats totally unrealistic. We want to leave the EU but we cant even find the exit.

Whatever about leaving the EU, its obvious that to do it in this fashion is a total disaster.

Hopefully it will go through efta and we won't be plunged into a massive recession.

Europe will punish GB and I for years of arrogance and colonialism....we snubbed them so of course they will take their point of flesh, they don't like us anyway. UK voters are idiots.

Spain, Portugal, France, Germany and Italy have no history of colonialism do they?

LionsV2 wrote:Spain, Portugal, France, Germany and Italy have no history of colonialism do they?

Just what I was going to say...

And Belgium.

They're not going to punish us they've said Brexit is punishment enough and the way these useless c*nts are going at it were going to see what that means very soon. We do still have empire delusions but Europe isn't going to punish us for that nor have they ever said they would. You seem to be mixing up many different issues that are interesting to you and sticking it to it. Voting leave was f*cling moronic but no point wasting breath on that now.

And the Netherlands

Voting stay was moronic but oh well.

I see the government still pushing the "we buy German cars so they'll give us a deal" line. Davis's bare-faced cheek yesterday in pretending that no one had ever said the process would be easy was quite astounding.

He's still under the impression that the EU can give what he is asking for without being in efta or in the EU. They would have to change the laws to comply and that's a 5 year project on its own. Unfortunately the legatum institute has his ear and they are disaster capitalists. They make no secret of the fact that they profit when economies are in turmoil the only thing different this time is that they are influencing our government towards failure rather than just taking the opportunitits that arise from failure.

Was gobsmacked when Redwood suggested we could trade on WTO rules as we do with other countries ..which we generally don't as we have many micro agreements with them to mitigate costs and ntbs and Davis just nodded along. Redwood is far too clever to be that stupid so you have to think that he is doing it on purpose. He thinks the EU can offer zero tariffs in exchange for zero tariff here but they can't lest they fall foul of anti discrimination laws at the WTO. They also fall foul of the rules of the single market which we helped shape.

Can't help but feel that it's game over for the UK for at least 2 decades if this is the best we can do.

LionsV2 wrote:Voting stay was moronic but oh well.

Nothing to back that up? No, thought not.

Anyway, after seeing that leaked government paper on immigration yesterday, I'm sure the EU are just dying to give us a great deal.

A belief in my country is all I need, not that I need to justify my opinions to someone who lives in Canada.

And there's Brexit in a nutshell.

LionsV2 wrote:A belief in my country is all I need, not that I need to justify my opinions to someone who lives in Canada.

This guy has to be a troll, right?

ShahenshahG wrote:And there's Brexit in a nutshell.

Maybe it is, I don't see a problem with it myself. I see myself as English not British so want no part of the EU.

navyblueshorts wrote:

LionsV2 wrote:Spain, Portugal, France, Germany and Italy have no history of colonialism do they?

Just what I was going to say...

Oh please, all tiny players by comparison to GB and her frankly evil colonial career....only France really compares, the rest tried to be colonialists but not to any extent in modern 19th and 20th century history.