Miami

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Draw is out.

Projected Q/F:
Wawrinka v Goffin
Federer v Thiem
Raonic v Rafa
Nishikori v Cilic

Del Potro draws Fed in R3. Kyrgios in Goffin quarter (so potential Stan QF). Alex Zverev could play Stan in R4. Dimitrov in Rafa's quarter.

Kyle Edmund plays a qualifier then Mischa Zverev. Dan Evans plays a qualifier then Verdasco. Good draws for them.

I actually agree that Rafa isn't playing too much better than last year. One thing that I think has made the difference is that he is more confident and is playing the big points better - just not against Federer. The Rafa of last year probably would have lost to Dimitrov at the AO and maybe even to Zverev or Raonic.

I still think an on form Djokovic or Murray would have the beating of him. Even on clay.

I was not expecting that - just watched the highlights and I thought I saw a few interesting things: (i) Fed's backhand is such a weapon now that Nadal has abandoned his former tactic of peppering it; (ii) there were quite a lot of errors from both sides - with Fed it was shanking, Nadal it seemed to be distance control; (iii) Fed's serve is such a key - it did not look v. impressive in terms of 1st serves and aces all over the place, but he seems to get so much variety and put so much onto his 2nd serve that Nadal was having to get into the rally.

In short, for the time being he's got Nadal's number on hard courts, and I suspect grass as well.  Maybe Nadal can get it back by just doing what he's doing at the moment better; he can certainly make it tighter by avoiding some of the errors, but tactically it seems to me that the rivalry has really swung Fed's way and that has got into each of their minds.  On the clay.....?  I'd expect Nadal to win, not least because he has more of the mental advantage, but it would be v. interesting to see what he does about Fed's backhand.

Fed's on-court interview was v. interesting - he was explicit that the ranking from point of view of seedings has now taken care of itself (that was obviously a goal - particularly for Wimbledon), and he volunteered talk of No. 1 possibilities, being careful to say he's a long way off.  It's an extraordinary comeback, the ATP Tour must be thrilled that these two greats are back thrilling crowds at the back end of tournaments.

As for Nadal - you've got to expect him to do very well on the clay - but a word of caution from looking back at the two years thus far he's reached the AO Final and had good runs in IW/Miami when he's dropped off due to injury in the latter half of the year, namely 2009 & 2012. It's quite possible he's viewing the season similarly to Federer - making sure that he's at his best for the bits that are most important for him, and that we'll see a huge clay effort and then a relative drop back after June.

Sorry don't agree that in form Djoko and Murray would probably beat this Rafa. Rafa did beat Murray at MC last year, and he had his wrist injury after that. This season he's fit and healthy, I doubt he would lose to them on clay. Further more both Djoko and Murray aren't playing well right now, to expect them to regain form and beat Rafa on clay, as if Rafa can't play better than he is now, to me it's just not being realistic. Rafa is certainly playing better than his 2015 and 2016, he's certainly the big fav in all the clay events.

He's not won a set off Djokovic since 2014. I think Djokovic matches up to him very well, even on clay.

Rafa has obviously declined physically and he won't get that back.

Murray has less clay pedigree than Djokovic but has won 2 of the last 3 against Nadal on clay.

It seems to be me that Federer is taking the ball earlier.  He has always taken the ball early, but he is taking it even earlier.  With such a tactic there will be shanks but more often than not Federer will get ahead on the point, dictate more, win more points.  I think also Nadal is not spinning the balls quite so much, or at least the balls are not bouncing as high.  In the past Nadal killed Federer with repetitive high bouncing balls to Federer's backhand, which meant he was striking the ball above his shoulder, and that killed Federer.  Somehow that dynamic has changed.

No name Bertie wrote:It seems to be me that Federer is taking the ball earlier.  He has always taken the ball early, but he is taking it even earlier.  With such a tactic there will be shanks but more often than not Federer will get ahead on the point, dictate more, win more points.  I think also Nadal is not spinning the balls quite so much, or they are not bouncing as high.  In the past Nadal killed Federer with repetitive high bouncing balls to Federer's backhand, which meant he was striking the ball above his shoulder, and that killed Federer.  Somehow that dynamic has changed.

I agree.

Also Rafa hits too many short balls these days. Federer jumps on them (even on the backhand) and usually wins the point.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Sorry don't agree that in form Djoko and Murray would probably beat this Rafa.  Rafa did beat Murray at MC last year,  and he had his wrist injury after that. This season he's fit and healthy, I doubt he would lose to them on clay. Further more both Djoko and Murray aren't playing well right now, to expect them to regain form and beat Rafa on clay, as if Rafa can't play better than he is now, to me it's just not being realistic.  Rafa is certainly playing better than his 2015 and 2016, he's certainly the big fav in all the clay events.

Murray beat Nadal in the semi at Madrid after Monte Carlo. Nadal was not injured then. So it was 1 each on clay last year. I would agree though on current match fitness/form I would make Nadal favourite were they to meet on clay in the next few weeks.

Rafa did mix it up instead of hitting to Fed's BH all the time. Compared to IW, this Rafa did force BPs on Fed. It's just that he wasn't good enough to take one or two of them, to me that's because 1) he was playing from too far back, thus hitting short, and on one BP chance in the fifth game, he netted his FH DTL shot, 2) his FH was misfiring in set two and he rarely hit his FH DTL, perhaps not feeling too confident.

Fed knew Rafa was getting better, and it's a matter of time that Rafa would execute his game plan a bit better and make it difficult for Fed. I believe a few titles on clay, and Rafa would be feeling more confident and those FH misses or misfirings would be reduced. Once he has the belief that he can win titles again, there's nothing to stop him from playing more aggressively, like in 2013, to win on HCs again, though I don't think he will be as good as his 2013 level. It's on the quicker HCs of the USO series that Rafa tends to play more aggressive tennis. On the slower HCs, he tends to play clayourt style tennis and has to grind more.

On grass Fed would certainly have the advantage now but chances of them meeting on grass are slim, likewise on clay.

The Rafa now is better than the Rafa of 2015 and 2016 whilst it's the reverse for both Djoko and Murray. Rafa will have the advantage on clay now vs both of them. Rafa is of a better pedigree on clay than both Djoko and Murray, he's in better form now than both of them, so I have him as fav over them on clay.

Guest, so you think Rafa has physically declined but not Djoko and Murray?? You think they are as young as ever? Both of them are in poor form now, and I doubt that they can be physically as fit as before due to their age too.

Fed knows Rafa well and he said that Rafa would tear through the clay season! Good to know Fed's thoughts about Rafa's level of play at this moment.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:The Rafa now is better than the Rafa of 2015 and 2016 whilst it's the reverse for both Djoko and Murray.  Rafa will have the advantage on clay now vs both of them.  Rafa is of a better pedigree on clay than both Djoko and Murray, he's in better form now than both of them, so I have him as fav over them on clay.

I think you are probably right overall that Nadal is marginal favourite on the clay, but I'm not sure I agree that Murray's current form is such a feature. Andy went into last year's clay season in poor form on hard courts having gone out early at both IW and Miami, but he did a huge amount of work and ended up having an excellent season on the clay. This year I think he's also really targeting the clay, he said as much when he pulled out of Miami - I would not be surprised if he got himself into top form for the clay again.

You have to factor in Murray's elbow injury this year. Why would he pull out of Miami when he can gain points and ground over Djoko? Last season he wasn't injured, lost early at both IW/Miami as he's not well prepared for them, being busy in Feb during birth of his daughter. This year, he's injured.

He's better on the HCs than on clay, so all the more he won't just pull out of Miami for nothing.

I can see why Rafa would be favourite on clay, against anyone currently.

But, from what I have seen he isn't playing like the unbeatable Rafa of old. I think if Murray or Djokovic show up in reasonable form then they would both have the beating of him.

In the last two seasons only Djokovic and Nadal have beaten Murray on clay. He actually leads the h2h with Nadal in that period 2v1.

Rafa of old? Which version? The 2016 Rafa was good enough to beat Murray and Rafa is playing better now in 2017; don't see how Murray would beat Rafa when I don't see Murray playing better than his 2016 self.

As for Djoko, I also can't see him playing better than his 2016, there's no sign of him playing better when he couldn't even win on his fav slow HCs.

Rafa actually plays much better than his 2016 - 3 finals so far and 2235 points vs 800 points last year same period. I don't see why Rafa is not playing better by much this year over last.

Key shot of the year so far is Van In on Rafa serve at 3-2 in final set at the AO. Rafa hits a cross-court forehand which hits the top of the net and flies into the trams. An inch higher and he's 4-2 up and probably on his way to win the Australian. Might have changed the whole complexion of the season.
That's all conjecture. What is more certain is that Rafa will be a force on clay as usual this year

I may be missing something, but to me it seems that Rafael Nadal's after match speeches have undergone a significant change, suggesting he has matured from a boy to a man in his thinking.  Or at least one can sense someone of a distinct character.  Whereas before his aftermatch speeches seemed very sweet, very humble, praising his opponent and everyone.  Now he is able to say he would have preferred to win and goes a little more into the details of his disappointment.  He has never been one for tears, but he has been overly saccharine in the past - and that seems to have now gone - we are seeing the man - an extremely determined, extremely committed to his sport man.

barrystar wrote:I was not expecting that - just watched the highlights and I thought I saw a few interesting things: (i) Fed's backhand is such a weapon now that Nadal has abandoned his former tactic of peppering it; (ii) there were quite a lot of errors from both sides - with Fed it was shanking, Nadal it seemed to be distance control .....

I agree with you on the first point,

However on the question of distance control he did do a good job, when on the defensive, of floating some long balls right to the baseline when needed. I'm not sure if that's what you mean by distance goal.

Always good to see your contributions.

Before the AO, I wasn't too excited about a Federer victory, seeing it as being just a chance to get one over a faded Rafa. However, the match was of a good quality, and Rafa played well, somewhere towards at his peak, making it, in the end, quite a great victory.

However Indian Wells Rafa just looked below par. Quite an easy victory.

And Miami again he didn't look at his best either. Federer had a couple of lulls with errors that he would have taken advantage of in the past. Match was more in the balance at least, but I think that was more due to Federer dropping of his hot peak.

At Indian Wells and Miami 17th ranked Sock is the highest ranked player Rafa defeated. With the exception of the Australian Open, he has struggled to get wins against top ranked players for quite some time now.

Henman Bill wrote:

barrystar wrote:I was not expecting that - just watched the highlights and I thought I saw a few interesting things: (i) Fed's backhand is such a weapon now that Nadal has abandoned his former tactic of peppering it; (ii) there were quite a lot of errors from both sides - with Fed it was shanking, Nadal it seemed to be distance control .....

I agree with you on the first point,

However on the question of distance control he did do a good job, when on the defensive, of floating some long balls right to the baseline when needed. I'm not sure if that's what you mean by distance goal.

Always good to see your contributions.

Thanks - I meant that Nadal's errors tended not to be spraying it wide, but hitting it long and out; he also hit too many balls too short for Federer to attack, or even into the net - he obviously hit some great shots and controlled a few rallies - but when he was under pressure I did not see a consistent nagging length that prevented Federer from being able to attack.

In relation to his opponents - he also beat Cilic in Mexico - but I'd agree that his form in Australia was more impressive than at IW/Miami.

I sound like a stuck record I know, but thus far in his career when he's reached the Australian Open Final and had a few wins and/or deep runs before the start of clay court season he's managed to keep that up and do pretty well during the clay season, but has tended to fade later on: e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2014. It will be interesting to see if he can avoid a similar pattern this year.

Henman Bill wrote:it would be interesting to see a clay meeting with Rafa

I bet you did not expect two years ago that you would be writing this sentence.

Well don't expect Rafa to go all out to win at IW/Miami when the clay season is round the corner. On clay Rafa will be a different animal; you won't be seeing the same Rafa that you saw at Miami, and I'll bet it'll be Rafa over Fed on clay. It'll be more like AO and this time Rafa comes out on top.

In 2009, Rafa made the dumb decision of playing at Rotterdam (where he got injured in the final), and then played at D.C. tie against Serbia. To me that was the main reason his knees gave way during the clay season, not helped by that 4 hour match on clay vs Djoko at Madrid that year. Djoko also suffered an early exit at FO that year, lost in R3 to Kohl.

In 2012 he had the 6+ hours battle vs Djoko at the AO, and by Miami, he had to withdraw from the SF vs Murray as he had his knee issue and was not going to jeopardize his clay season. In 2014 he had his back issue at the AO2014 final and wrist issue while practicing for the USO series, followed with appendicitis at end of season.

Rafa seems fine this season, probably helped by longer break last year end than usual, plus playing Acapulco only in March, giving himself one full month in Feb to rest. I think it's wise scheduling this time; we'll see how he fares come the clay season.

I would expect Rafa to beat Federer on clay, should they play. With Federer only playing RG and I would guess he would take a QF there and move onto Wimbledon then I think unlikely they will play.

I would question if he can consistently beat Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and even the likes of Thiem on clay this year. I think he will be right in the mix, but I don't think he will dominate.

I'd be surprised if Rafa beats either Novak or Fed on clay. He's lost 17 sets in a row to Novak and he's just been routined twice by Fed on courts which traditionally favour him in that match up. He looks to have lost a step and his forehand is considerably more error prone. I don't think a move to clay is, in itself, sufficient to bridge the significant gap.

Personally, I expect Novak to return and be the dominant player on clay. I suspect the rest with have re-focussed him and, if so, he should dominate comfortably.

I would also be surprised if Fed doesn't play one masters (probably Rome). His improved game should translate well to clay and, if he can cruise to the semis (which he should if he has some match practice), he's only two genius performances away from a second RG.

Nah, Rafa would not kill himself for winning Miami, he's taking good care of himself before the clay season begins. He has learned his lessons from the past (2009, 2012, 2014) when after his good run at the AO, he got injured.

He has now arrived at the clay season in good physical conditions. You talked about 2015/2016 when Rafa was in a slump, and he did mention his wrist wasn't perfect during Madrid last year. Also 2015/2016 were the years when Djoko was playing his best tennis, which coincided with Rafa's slump.

This season it's Djoko in his slump whilst Rafa is doing well, so I don't see this Djoko giving Rafa straight sets beatdowns on clay; I think Rafa will reverse the order here, we'll see.

BS is too optimistic about Fed's chances on clay. Stan or Thiem will have good chances of beating him on clay, don't even need to talk about Rafa.

Djoko had not dominated comfortably on clay last season, I doubt he would this season. His dominance was back in 2015, even then he struggled through many of his matches, hardly a comfortable dominance.

I hope I've got this right - I make it that if Rafa were to fail to defend Monte Carlo or Barcelona he would not be holding a single's title for the first time ever since his first title. i.e. >12 months without a title.

There's no clear favourite for the French Open right now, but one may emerge before the tournament starts.

French Open odds
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/winner
Rafa 2
Novak 2-3
Murray 3-4
Stan 7-8
Federer 12-16
Thiem 20-25
Nishikori 20-30
Kyrgios 25-33
Del Potro 40-50
Raonic 40-50
Zverev/Goffin/Monfils/Tsonga/Dimitrov/Berdych 50-100

Federer offers slightly better value perhaps (?) but all the odds seem reasonable.

I had a look at the US Open. I think 20-1 is tempting for Kyrgios?

Gosh, those odds on Fed look a little long. OK, he's not going to be playing much, if at all, before RG, but he's only got to get thru a couple of rounds and the odds will shorten dramatically. Almost worth a punt.
I would ALWAYS make Rafa favourite for the French, even if he was out of form and with one leg cut off. With two legs cut off, I would still back him to make, say, the semis.

I think you can make a case for any of the top five in the betting winning it. I think it'll be Murray or Djokovic myself - I don't see that both of them will carry on the poor form.

Kyrgios at 16/1 for Wimbledon looks quite generous to me.

sirfredperry wrote:Gosh, those odds on Fed look a little long. OK, he's not going to be playing much, if at all, before RG, but he's only got to get thru a couple of rounds and the odds will shorten dramatically. Almost worth a punt.
 I would ALWAYS make Rafa favourite for the French, even if he was out of form and with one leg cut off. With two legs cut off, I would still back him to make, say, the semis.

haven't you forgot to add with one arm tied behind his back and wearing a blindfold...then I would agree

I fancy Rafael Nadal for the French. The hunger and determination is there. In my opinion it is just a question whether he remains fit and healthy.

Really enjoying 2017. Roger showing everyone how great he really is. Nadal fighting like crazy to regain relevance and he's close to getting back. Murray being a chump most pathetic #1 ever.

Jermaine2015 wrote:Really enjoying 2017. Roger showing everyone how great he really is. Nadal fighting like crazy to regain relevance and he's close to getting back. Murray being a chump most pathetic #1 ever.

Murray is the best male tennis player Britain has ever had.   He is not a patch on Federer or Nadal however, but then not many are.  Jermaine from Germany - I guess you are not the epitomy of impartiality.  Without Andy Murray Britain would have had nobody to cheer on for ten years.  Why doesn't Germany have a grand slam tennis tournament?  Not much history for tennis?

No name Bertie wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:Really enjoying 2017. Roger showing everyone how great he really is. Nadal fighting like crazy to regain relevance and he's close to getting back. Murray being a chump most pathetic #1 ever.

Murray is the best male tennis player Britain has ever had.   He is not a patch on Federer or Nadal however, but then not many are.  Jermaine from Germany - I guess you are not the epitomy of impartiality.  Without Andy Murray Britain would have had nobody to cheer on for ten years.  Why doesn't Germany have a grand slam tennis tournament?  Not much history for tennis?

Nah we don't excel at tennis...guys and girls like Becker, Graff, Kerber total novices...

Kerber - age 29, 10 career titles (including 2 slams) in one of the weakest eras of women's tennis, no titles this year.

Murray - aged 29, 45 titles (including 3 slams) competing for his entire career against 3 ATGs, 1 title this year.

In Jermaine's mind, Kerber is a worthy champion worth mentioning literally in the same sentence as Graf and Becker. Murray, in contrast, is the "most pathetic number 1 ever"...

Seems like a fair and balanced assessment...

Born Slippy wrote:Kerber - age 29, 10 career titles (including 2 slams) in one of the weakest eras of women's tennis, no titles this year.

Murray - aged 29, 45 titles (including 3 slams) competing for his entire career against 3 ATGs, 1 title this year.

In Jermaine's mind, Kerber is a worthy champion worth mentioning literally in the same sentence as Graf and Becker. Murray, in contrast, is the "most pathetic number 1 ever"...

Seems like a fair and balanced assessment...

Remind me how how times Murray has beaten Federer(GOAT no debate about it) in a major final? Ah yes zero, because Murray is a mental midget. Murray fluked his way to #1 after Djokovic couldn't keep his piece in his pants...no more no less.

Whether Kerber is good or bad, at least on her CV it says she beat Serena in the 2016 Australian open final.

Born Slippy wrote:Kerber - age 29, 10 career titles (including 2 slams) in one of the weakest eras of women's tennis, no titles this year.

Murray - aged 29, 45 titles (including 3 slams) competing for his entire career against 3 ATGs, 1 title this year.

When I see it written like this, it has the opposite effect on me from what you intend.  I normally think of Kerber as someone who was nowhere for years and then stumbled to #1 whereas I think of Andy as a guy who has for years been just below the top tier and was the most natural guy to take over when those above him faltered - so I think of Andy way more highly than of Kerber.

But summing up their entire careers in a few words like you did; they come out surprisingly similar.  Both have a couple of slams and a shortish stint at #1 during a period when the bigger names failed to shine.  10 career titles vs 45 is a big gap, but that is very much a second tier stat that most people forget (do I know if Ashe won more or fewer titles than Nastase?  No I do not).

summerblues wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Kerber - age 29, 10 career titles (including 2 slams) in one of the weakest eras of women's tennis, no titles this year.

Murray - aged 29, 45 titles (including 3 slams) competing for his entire career against 3 ATGs, 1 title this year.

When I see it written like this, it has the opposite effect on me from what you intend.  I normally think of Kerber as someone who was nowhere for years and then stumbled to #1 whereas I think of Andy as a guy who has for years been just below the top tier and was the most natural guy to take over when those above him faltered - so I think of Andy way more highly than of Kerber.

But summing up their entire careers in a few words like you did; they come out surprisingly similar.  Both have a couple of slams and a shortish stint at #1 during a period when the bigger names failed to shine.  10 career titles vs 45 is a big gap, but that is very much a second tier stat that most people forget (do I know if Ashe won more or fewer titles than Nastase?  No I do not).

My intention was to point out Jermaine's obvious wumming - given the similar but less impressive stats of a player he has just lauded. Having lost again yesterday, Kerber currently sits at number 1 whilst being the proud holder of two titles. By comparison, Murray currently holds 9.

Murray fluked many titles last year when Djokovic was playing away from home. Roll back to the beginning of 2016 and Djokovic was slapping Murray silly. Murray is a pathetic #1

Oh do change the record why don't ya

Anybody could think you don't like him

Murray is the only man or woman to win two Olympics singles titles - 2012 and 2016.

He's also won a Davis Cup with him being the main contributor. Don't think he lost a game and he beat some good players to get the title.

Compare this to Kerber whose never won the Fed Cup.

Murray will obviously be rated behind Djokovic,Federer and Nadal but no shame in that.

He's still been a very consistent player.