UK General Election 2017 Thread

[Muscular-mouse]

First topic message reminder :

Ok guys what are your predictions, how will you be voting and who do you want to win.

[TopHat24/7]

Lol

Trawl back through the archives to find a anomolously wide polling result to compare to one most recent closer poll.

MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS

Stick to the 'roids.

Watch the tone, toppy. Policing this section of the forum isn't fun around election time

Understood. Am sure you keep as keen eye on the WUMs as you do us that kick back....

[navyblueshorts]

Lol

Trawl back through the archives to find a anomolously wide polling result to compare to one most recent closer poll.

MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS

Stick to the 'roids.

Watch the tone, toppy. Policing this section of the forum isn't fun around election time

It might help if you had a better quality of moderator (present company excluded, of course, with you being my second favourite poster)

Nice. And there was me thinking I deleted stuff fine yesterday on the Trump thread...

[Galted]

Lol

Trawl back through the archives to find a anomolously wide polling result to compare to one most recent closer poll.

MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS MASSIVE GAINS

Stick to the 'roids.

Watch the tone, toppy. Policing this section of the forum isn't fun around election time

It might help if you had a better quality of moderator (present company excluded, of course, with you being my second favourite poster)

Nice. And there was me thinking I deleted stuff fine yesterday on the Trump thread...

Not nearly enough use of the red font option, and the odd line in hold would help you to stand out.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Toppy's tone is his tone....Nothing to be arsed about.

Happy to complain about his lack of ability to form a decent argument though..

Let's move on....Old people favor May by over 50 points....Note to Yvette Cooper when she wins in 2022 after Brexit goes hey diddle diddle..

Lower the voting age to 17...

[Dolphin Ziggler]

It's always better done like this:


I SHOULD HAVE PM'D YOU BUT I WAS TOO TIRED TO BOTHER WITH THE EXTRA BUTTON.


Then ending with a:


Back on topic please.

[TRUSSMAN66]

I miss your little love letters to me Dolph..and how it was going to break your heart to kick me off ....and you thoughtfully kept sending them me too... knowing that I have a problem with forgetfulness..

I treasure the memories...

Have a good weekend guys....Labour up to 37 by Monday..

[GSC]

I miss being banned for 24 hours for having a different opinion to Dolph

[ShahenshahG]

I miss Dolph losing his nut over west ham and their sexist, racist, thuggish, ageist and vegan hooligan fans.

[GSC]

Tories up 15% in Scotland on average roughly half coming from Labour and the SNP each, though the latter retain a 13 point lead

[Ent]

Projected to win 8 seats in Scotland.

If the SNP lose any seats that is a big fat no to another referendum.

[GSC]

Maybe. Doesn't seem like theres much momentum behind it right now anyway. The last indyref combined with 2 GEs and the Brexit vote are going to kill interest in politics in the near future.

SNP finding what most governments do, getting into power is significantly easier than holding it. Most politicians can attack, the best ones can defend.

[CaledonianCraig]

Tactical voting and a begging call from the Tories and it might just might muster 8 seats (a gain of 7) yet you call that as a stand against a second referendum? What next a comfortable Labour defeat being painted as a landslide for them? And I am really damned puzzled here. We have: A. A rallying call from a unionist party to band together against independence. B. And by the opinion of posters on this forum we have a useless SNP government in power. And yet the SNP are set to win 75% of all seats after around a decade in power. How can that be so? Either the call for independence is still loud and strong or the SNP are governing very well. Take your pick folks.

[Derbymanc]

I miss arguing with CS with Dolph

[TRUSSMAN66]

Yougov... Con 44...Labour 35...

Imagine it is an outlier.. The dementia tax is not having an affect on the polling according to the breakdown which is good for May...

Corbyn is up with the 18-24s...

[GSC]

It struck me as May testing the waters of what her lead can withstand.

[ShahenshahG]

Just wondering if the tories are fiddling with the polls somehow to make sure complacency doesn't set in.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Think it is more to do with a Lib squeeze...If you look at the video of Corbyn at the Libertines concert last night...maybe like Sanders he is hitting a nerve with kids.

Could be an outlier.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

YouGov are Tory owned, aren't they? Seen a lot of suggestions that this is being squeezed for a reason

[GSC]

Everyone bar the extreme left news sources seem to be Tory owned.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Integrity is too important in an occupation like Yougov's......

2 million people have applied to vote since the G.E was called.....There are people going around getting the homeless to apply giving the address of the hostels..

Clever stuff..

on 20 may 2017....94,000 applied..

Under 25s - 39,100
25-34 - 31,300
35-44 - 12,600
45-54 - 6.400
55-64 - 3.000
0ver 65 - 1,600

[Hammersmith harrier]

I don't believe for a second the polls are correct, come election day most of those who stay quiet end up voting Tory.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Valid belief..Hammer....

Would say though they thought the same thing about Trump and earlier Sanders.

[Hammersmith harrier]

Valid belief..Hammer....

Would say though they thought the same thing about Trump and earlier Sanders.

This isn't America so don't feel it's a valid comparison, in my lifetime of voting the Tories always do better than the polls suggest.

[GSC]

Brexit is a valid comparison to the Trump election though

[Hammersmith harrier]

I wouldn't agree with that, it wasn't particularly fashionable to admit you were voting leave and as soon as you did you'd end up receiving endless vitriol.

[TRUSSMAN66]

1.2 million youngsters have registered to vote in 3 weeks.

The Sanders comparison isn't too wide off the mark....

That is where Corbyn's bump is coming from.

Yougov. .Con 44.. . Labour 35

Survation. .Con 43...Labour 34...

Looking like Yougov wasn't an outlier...

[GSC]

Don't think it was particularly fashionable to vote Trump either.

The last few years have taught us to never write off the outsider. Political apathy is giving momentum to those "outside" the system

[TRUSSMAN66]

Valid belief..Hammer....

Would say though they thought the same thing about Trump and earlier Sanders.

This isn't America so don't feel it's a valid comparison, in my lifetime of voting the Tories always do better than the polls suggest.

You mean when they were 10 points up before voting day against Brown and they ended up in Coalition

[GSC]

That said, I doubt the Tories are sweating. They unveiled a pretty hard line manifesto and still hold a near double digit lead. And now they're deploying the dirt they have on Corbyn

[GSC]

Other thing is Tory vote tends to be pretty efficient in winning seats by close margins where as Labour tend to win big. Usually means the Tories get more seats out of a similar vote share.

[Hammersmith harrier]

Don't think it was particularly fashionable to vote Trump either.

The last few years have taught us to never write off the outsider. Political apathy is giving momentum to those "outside" the system

The UK is not America, there are no comparisons at all.

[Hammersmith harrier]

Valid belief..Hammer....

Would say though they thought the same thing about Trump and earlier Sanders.

This isn't America so don't feel it's a valid comparison, in my lifetime of voting the Tories always do better than the polls suggest.

You mean when they were 10 points up before voting day against Brown and they ended up in Coalition

The coalition that had been predicted for weeks before the election.

[TRUSSMAN66]

No it wasn't.....

He was ten points ahead..Look it up...

ICM....Con 42.............Lab 32..................Lib 18..............Apr 13 2010......

It was a hung parliament because Brown kept it to 7 points......Thanks to Clegg getting the Liberals to 23..

[GSC]

Don't think it was particularly fashionable to vote Trump either.

The last few years have taught us to never write off the outsider. Political apathy is giving momentum to those "outside" the system

The UK is not America, there are no comparisons at all.

You'd be surprised once you stop generalising.

[Hammersmith harrier]

No it wasn't.....

He was ten points ahead..Look it up...

ICM....Con 42.............Lab 32..................Lib 18..............Apr 13 2010......

It was a hung parliament because Brown kept it to 7 points......Thanks to Clegg getting the Liberals to 23..

A whole month before the actual election and using a singular poll that had them 10 points up, the polling in 2010 was all over the place. You say Clegg getting LD to 23% but the polls had them at 34 during the lead up.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Don't think it was particularly fashionable to vote Trump either.

The last few years have taught us to never write off the outsider. Political apathy is giving momentum to those "outside" the system

The UK is not America, there are no comparisons at all.

You'd be surprised once you stop generalising.

Blanket statements.....

I have never experienced an Election like this one...........Corbyn is a radical.

Whilst I think there is a case for suggesting some people will play it safe..................2 million + new voters most of them young added to the 20 million that voted for the two parties combined last time.................Con 11m......Lab 9m.............Offers a slightly different dimension..I'd be surprised if the majority of new voters won't be for Corbyn..

Miliband's whole strategy seemed to be I'm not a Tory..

My guess is Corbyn doesn't have many maybes.....................You love his vision or hate it..............I just want him to keep the majority down................Let us see how this IRA stuff resonates.....My guess is the Tories have brought it forward from the final week because of the Dementia tax debacle......

[TRUSSMAN66]

No it wasn't.....

He was ten points ahead..Look it up...

ICM....Con 42.............Lab 32..................Lib 18..............Apr 13 2010......

It was a hung parliament because Brown kept it to 7 points......Thanks to Clegg getting the Liberals to 23..

A whole month before the actual election and using a singular poll that had them 10 points up, the polling in 2010 was all over the place. You say Clegg getting LD to 23% but the polls had them at 34 during the lead up.

Final Angus reid poll.............Con 36......Lab 24
Final populus pol...................Con 37..... Lab 28
Ipsos Mori final poll..............Con 36.......Lab 29
Final opinion poll..................Con 35.......Lab 27

RESULT.................Con 36....Lab 29............Labour exceeded expectation......


Stop squirming and admit you're wrong.........For once..

[Hammersmith harrier]

That simply isn't true Truss and you're fully aware of that, at no point was a Conservative majority ever going to happen.

[TRUSSMAN66]

I'm happy with my position........Brown was history and then he wasn't........The Lib dems had a surge with students like Corbyn is now......

Which is why you shouldn't take too many lessons from previous Elections.....

Because this one isn't for the fence sitters..

Relax May is going to win and comfortably.............But it is amusing seeing the Tories rush the IRA stuff out...Have no doubts that was reserved for the final push and final days...

The Tories aren't setting the agenda for the first time in GE2017......

[GSC]

Flip side is how many votes will Corbyn pick up from Conservative voters vs how many will he bleed to Theresa from 2 years ago.

Also expect turnout to be down because people just can't be arsed with another vote, which favours Corbyn.

He has a very vocal core support like Bernie, but it is it big enough to make a difference

[TRUSSMAN66]

That simply isn't true Truss and you're fully aware of that, at no point was a Conservative majority ever going to happen.

I've given you the breakdown..Look up a couple of posts.

[Hammersmith harrier]

That simply isn't true Truss and you're fully aware of that, at no point was a Conservative majority ever going to happen.

I've given you the breakdown..Look up a couple of posts.

You've given your version of it based on a hand picked polls.

[TRUSSMAN66]

U-turn coming on the Dementia tax apparently.....

Remember...."Strong and Stable"

[GSC]

U-turn coming on the Dementia tax apparently.....

Remember...."Strong and Stable"  

Osbourne would know...

Still suspect Mays testing the waters and limits of her lead.

[ShahenshahG]

Aye but bit daft to do it at this juncture GSC. It will stick in the minds of some voters.

[TRUSSMAN66]

U-turn coming on the Dementia tax apparently.....

Remember...."Strong and Stable"  

Osbourne would know...

Still suspect Mays testing the waters and limits of her lead.

You don't give the other side Momentum (Pardon the pun).............In the last 24 hours they have tried to get the story back about Brexit and now the IRA...They have lost control of the narrative.....Postal votes are out from today which is why they are on damage limitation...

They have given Labour a small gift......and they know it.........U turn might change that ........Who knows..

[GSC]

Aye but bit daft to do it at this juncture GSC. It will stick in the minds of some voters.

True, a measure of how seriously they're taking Corbyn. Whether they get away with it is yet to be seen

[GSC]

Should also remind everyone that today is the last day to register to vote.

Think the site went down last time because of people trying to do it last minute.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Like I said Postal votes are being delivered today....

They wouldn't be testing leads out now..........People are voting !!!!!

[GSC]

If they were taking Corbyn as seriously as they should.

I suspect they aren't.

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