UK General Election 2017 Thread

[Muscular-mouse]

First topic message reminder :

Ok guys what are your predictions, how will you be voting and who do you want to win.

[TRUSSMAN66]

All it means is May not showing up didn't go down well..

[Hammersmith harrier]

Whilst there's a lot of polls that have the Conservatives 10+ points up.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Best leader rating..

May 43
Corbyn 39..

50 point lead 4 weeks ago..

[Muscular-mouse]

clearly something has gone wrong over the past 2 weeks in May's campaign because she had a 20 point lead only 3 weeks ago (ish) and now some polls are saying that lead is just 5-6 points.

Maybe May will win with a massive majority, maybe she won't. We won't find out until Friday but based on how the polls are changing it looks closer NOW than it did 3/4 weeks ago.

[GSC]

They've sat on their lead essentially.

[Muscular-mouse]

Best leader rating..

May 43
Corbyn 39..

50 point lead 4 weeks ago..

This should be the biggest worry for the conservatives. Since Corbyn has appeared on the live debates where the people can see him answer questions (majority for the first time) his approval rating has rocketed.

And the reversal has happened for May, since she has been on the live debates her approval rating has gone down.

[Scottrf]

Last Ipsos mori...

Con 49
Labour 33...

Today's ipsos mori...

Con 45
Labour 40....

what does that mean for seats?

Could mean that labour have every seat, could mean that conservatives have every seat.

[Samo]

If May does end up with a majority it wont be as big as she has now, I think her gamble has backfired.

If its a hung parliament where do we go? SNP surely wont get in bed with the Tories and the Lib Dems wont make that mistake again, and UKIP wont win enough seats to be worth entering a coalition with.

[TRUSSMAN66]

My advice is to look where the Tories are campaigning...Bolsover etc..

My guess is they are happy with their private polling.

We will see.

[Crimey]

If May does end up with a majority it wont be as big as she has now, I think her gamble has backfired.

If its a hung parliament where do we go?  SNP surely wont get in bed with the Tories and the Lib Dems wont make that mistake again, and UKIP wont win enough seats to be worth entering a coalition with.

I suppose in that case, you're more likely to see a Tory minority government, or a Labour minority government with SNP, Lib Dems and Greens in theory sometimes backing or even an official coalition between Labour, SNP, Lib Dems and Greens.

[Hammersmith harrier]

My advice is to look where the Tories are campaigning...Bolsover etc..

My guess is they are happy with their private polling.

We will see.

As long as they increase their majority which they will they'll also be happy to Corbyn polling well as it would increase the likelihood of a split within Labour.

[GSC]

Tory vote has historically tended to be more efficient than Labour's. JCs new support may be centralised in a few places which is less preferable in a system where winning a seat by one vote and winning by a thousand give the same outcome

[navyblueshorts]

There's no other right wing option so I'm unlikely to ever change, UKIP have too many policies I disagree with.

So you only vote for a party if they are right wing?

Well yes I'm against left wing politics.

Me too, I prefer it when disabled people are too poor to live.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/video/2017/may/30/living-with-disabilities-youre-treated-worse-than-a-farm-animal-video

Just going to leave this here.

This is an incredibly difficult watch. I cant believe anyone can justify this.

With the greatest respect to this pretty harrowing video, it's one side of a story (in the Guardirad) and I don't think anyone is "justifying" it as fine are they? Still, must be entirely the Tories fault as they're 'evil'....

Talk about a nonsense post.

Who's fault are the cuts then, if not the Tories? Do you think that this woman did this to herself? It has to be one or the other.

...and conveniently ignore the issue re. one-sided story from a left-wing rag. If you want to see the World and its issues in simplistic black/white, carry on by all means.

You didn't answer the question. Who's fault is it that she has to live like that? Is it hers or the Tories'?

Conversely, you can't ignore the cuts that the disabled have suffered under the Tories? Care to justify them?

What question? There wasn't one originally. I can't believe you're so simplistic as to just assume "it's the Tories". Never mind...

[Muscular-mouse]

My advice is to look where the Tories are campaigning...Bolsover etc..

My guess is they are happy with their private polling.

We will see.

As long as they increase their majority which they will they'll also be happy to Corbyn polling well as it would increase the likelihood of a split within Labour.

I don't think they wanted to just increase their majority, they called the election because they thought they would get a landslide.

If Corbyn does well, and I mean well rather than better than expected than I don't think it will cause a split. If corbyn does better than Miliband and Brown in 2010 and 2015 then I can see 2 things happening. the first being Corbyn stands down because he failed to win an election and the 2nd being that he stands again as leader which I think will not cause as much of a split as last time because the main issue last time was that labour mps were worried they would lose their job as mp because they thought corbyn was unelectable. If corbyn does well then clearly he is electable and thus mps will be happy.

But to be honest if he loses (eve if he does really well) I can see him standing down. He is 66 and has had his shot at leadership and at a general election so he will probably think its time to pass the leadership on to someone else.

[GSC]

The problem I have with it is we're still kinda shifting the goalposts.

Not getting obliterated by the massive lead the Tories had one stage isn't really winning, this government should be getting a real kicking given the last 2 years

[Crimey]

If Labour do really poorly in this election, I'm honestly not sure where they go. The centre ground is so crowded right now. I for one think if they go back to New Labour principles after this election that I'm not sure they'll have my support.

[GSC]

Reality would be a start

[Crimey]

Reality would be a start

I mean Labour's manifesto is fully costed, unlike the Conservatives. Of course you can disagree with how they plan to collect the money needed, or that you think how they're going to collect it is unrealistic, or that by collecting that money they will make the economy worse, but they do have a plan to pay for what's in the manifesto. 

It's also worth pointing out that if Labour were to raise Corporation Tax, it would still be lower than other G20 countries. 

Corporation Tax Ranking

Of course, we have the problem with Brexit complicating matters and whether UK needs to become a tax haven to compete, but that all depends on the deal the UK gets from the EU and if it's close to Free Trade again then raising Corporation Tax to the levels proposed would not be a disaster at all because companies don't have any particular alternatives.

[Pr4wn]

There's no other right wing option so I'm unlikely to ever change, UKIP have too many policies I disagree with.

So you only vote for a party if they are right wing?

Well yes I'm against left wing politics.

Me too, I prefer it when disabled people are too poor to live.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/video/2017/may/30/living-with-disabilities-youre-treated-worse-than-a-farm-animal-video

Just going to leave this here.

This is an incredibly difficult watch. I cant believe anyone can justify this.

With the greatest respect to this pretty harrowing video, it's one side of a story (in the Guardirad) and I don't think anyone is "justifying" it as fine are they? Still, must be entirely the Tories fault as they're 'evil'....

Talk about a nonsense post.

Who's fault are the cuts then, if not the Tories? Do you think that this woman did this to herself? It has to be one or the other.

...and conveniently ignore the issue re. one-sided story from a left-wing rag. If you want to see the World and its issues in simplistic black/white, carry on by all means.

You didn't answer the question. Who's fault is it that she has to live like that? Is it hers or the Tories'?

Conversely, you can't ignore the cuts that the disabled have suffered under the Tories? Care to justify them?

What question? There wasn't one originally. I can't believe you're so simplistic as to just assume "it's the Tories". Never mind...

I put it in bold for you seeing as you're having difficulties. I mean, there must be reason for this sudden increase in disabled poverty. It's obviously not the Tories and their slashing of disabled benefits. Must be something else.

[TRUSSMAN66]

If Labour do really poorly in this election, I'm honestly not sure where they go. The centre ground is so crowded right now. I for one think if they go back to New Labour principles after this election that I'm not sure they'll have my support.

They don't have to go anywhere..Just wait for Brexit.

[Muscular-mouse]

If Labour do really poorly in this election, I'm honestly not sure where they go. The centre ground is so crowded right now. I for one think if they go back to New Labour principles after this election that I'm not sure they'll have my support.

They don't have to go anywhere..Just wait for Brexit.

I agree, at the moment brexit is a strong point for conservatives but that may change over the next couple of years if we get a bad deal.

for the 2022 election labour could go for a safe leader, safe meaning a les controversial figure than corbyn. Brexit will be over by 2022 so it will be back to domestic issues only which I think labour perform stronger in.

However I have a funny feeling we may be getting a hung parliament next week. I don't know why but I just feel the conservatives will either gain around 30/40 seats or lose between 5-30 which could mean hung parliament.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Take some medicine...

No chance of a Hung parliament.

[Samo]

If Labour do really poorly in this election, I'm honestly not sure where they go. The centre ground is so crowded right now. I for one think if they go back to New Labour principles after this election that I'm not sure they'll have my support.

I think Labour need to stick with Corbyn and stay to the left. Like you said the centre ground is so dilute you're basically picking your favourite colour & UKIP are merging back into the Conservatives so a left wing Labour is the only real, viable opposition we have.

[Crimey]

The major problem is that I can't see a left wing candidate getting elected as mainstream media is generally heavily skewed right with some obvious exceptions. The internet is then a great resource for less controlled opinions but generally people (including those on the left-wing) stick to their own echo chambers meaning nobody ever changes their mind.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

They need to back him as a party properly or promote someone who resonates with the young voters but can speak to the centre more. As I've said before Chuka Umunna looks to me like someone with real potential

[Pr4wn]

I assume you're making a mistake when you suggest that British Media is left-leaning?

[Dolphin Ziggler]

They could also do with hammering home more points about the NHS and education as they have huge support from people inside both and they really haven't done enough to get people talking about education cuts.

[Samo]

This is the kind of thing Labour should be screaming from the rooftops.

Spoiler:

[Crimey]

I assume you're making a mistake when you suggest that British Media is left-leaning?

Yeah, obviously meant right, my point wouldn't make sense otherwise haha. I've edited.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Sanders had little money and no media bar TYT helping him.

Corbyn is doing okay...I live in a Tory area and work with mainly Tory supporters..

But elsewhere I'm seeing more interest in Labour than under Ed...

Posters...Flyers in cars..

If you want him Crimey and Musclular-mouse then get out and do your bit..

Slim hasn't left town yet.

[Muscular-mouse]

Sanders had little money and no media bar TYT helping him.

Corbyn is doing okay...I live in a Tory area and work with mainly Tory supporters..

But elsewhere I'm seeing more interest in Labour than under Ed...

Posters...Flyers in cars..

If you want him Crimey and Musclular-mouse then get out and do your bit..

Slim hasn't left town yet.

I am doing my bit by trying to convince people to vote labour on numerous websites and forums.

The biggest barrier to Corbyn is the daily mail and the Sun. Every day they have smeared Corbyn and people believe them. Wasn't that long ago when they made the headline that corbyn said ' it was a travesty that Osama Bin Laden was killed'. Their readers read that and instantly believed that Corbyn supported Bin laden. The truth is that those newspapers twisted the actual quote which was that ' It is a travesty that Osama Bin Laden was killed because he should have been detained and put in front of an international court to face justice'.

[GSC]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

[Crimey]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

But unfortunately history shows that challenge is rarely overcome. Not a surprise that in my lifetime, whomever The Sun supports has gotten elected.

[Hammersmith harrier]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

The more someone tries to convince me of the virtues of Jeremy Corbyn the more it makes me realise how absurd his ideals are.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Sanders had little money and no media bar TYT helping him.

Corbyn is doing okay...I live in a Tory area and work with mainly Tory supporters..

But elsewhere I'm seeing more interest in Labour than under Ed...

Posters...Flyers in cars..

If you want him Crimey and Musclular-mouse then get out and do your bit..

Slim hasn't left town yet.

I am doing my bit by trying to convince people to vote labour on numerous websites and forums.

The biggest barrier to Corbyn is the daily mail and the Sun. Every day they have smeared Corbyn and people believe them. Wasn't that long ago when they made the headline that corbyn said ' it was a travesty that Osama Bin Laden was killed'. Their readers read that and instantly believed that Corbyn supported Bin laden. The truth is that those newspapers twisted the actual quote which was that ' It is a travesty that Osama Bin Laden was killed because he should have been detained and put in front of an international court to face justice'.

Don't worry about Bin Laden and the IRA...It's not that kind of election....You have the kids...Get them out...

They are the only chance you have of an Earthquake.

[Crimey]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

The more someone tries to convince me of the virtues of Jeremy Corbyn the more it makes me realise how absurd his ideals are.

I despair....

[GSC]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

But unfortunately history shows that challenge is rarely overcome. Not a surprise that in my lifetime, whomever The Sun supports has gotten elected.

Each side has multiple tame media outlets. Maybe the Sun is just really good at picking a winner

[GSC]

The next person to be convinced by somebody on the internet will be the first.

Media being biased is not a new challenge for any politician

The more someone tries to convince me of the virtues of Jeremy Corbyn the more it makes me realise how absurd his ideals are.

I despair....

Of people having different values and opinions?

[Pr4wn]

More of people making inane posts that don't mean anything, I think.

[GSC]

I've seen him post on Liverpool, that can't be true.

[TRUSSMAN66]

Best leader rating..

May 43
Corbyn 39..

50 point lead 4 weeks ago..

This should be the biggest worry for the conservatives. Since Corbyn has appeared on the live debates where the people can see him answer questions (majority for the first time) his approval rating has rocketed.

And the reversal has happened for May, since she has been on the live debates her approval rating has gone down.

If you're actively campaigning I suggest you and your mates on the networks start "operation grab a granny"....A charm offensive where you get Gran to vote Labour...

Think to have any hope you will need to cut into the over 65 numbers.

[Hammersmith harrier]

More of people making inane posts that don't mean anything, I think.

Like this one?

I despair at the foolishness of youth but hey you're entitled to your misplaced opinions.

[Samo]

More of people making inane posts that don't mean anything, I think.

Like this one?

I despair at the foolishness of youth but hey you're entitled to your misplaced opinions.

Yeah, an equal society is misplaced but selling the NHS and killing disabled people is perfectly reasonable.

[Hammersmith harrier]

You'll understand one day I'm sure, we're not equal but if it makes you feel better thinking we are crack on.

[Samo]

You make that sound like a bad thing.

[Hammersmith harrier]

It to me shows a lack of achievement and ambition to think you deserve the same as someone more successful.

You must like ABBA, Gimme, Gimme, Gimme.

[Samo]

When did I say that? I make enough to support myself, im fine. Its the people less fortunate than me I worry about - you know, the people stuck in a poverty cycle or the disabled having benefits cut to the point of suicide.

No ones proposing a flat equal share like some marxist dream, but that the most rich in society help the most poor just a little bit more.

But screw all that, lets just let the rich keep getting richer eh? Pip pip tally ho.

[Hammersmith harrier]

Tax the rich more and see the effect it has on poor families.

[Samo]

Like using the funds raised to introduce a living wage to match the rises in inflation? Or reinstating harsh benefit cuts? Providing cheaper prescriptions to those who require repeated and constant treatment?

Aye, none of that would have an effect at all, right enough.

[Hammersmith harrier]

Sounds good but not likely to ever happen, think more job cuts as the big bosses need to recoup the money they no longer have.

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