Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

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As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

I think top 4 is a push for us and unlikely to happen. As GF says, we're really struggling with fatigue and injuries to key players.

I'd be more than happy with a top 6 finish after seeing the last few weeks. A playoff would be an extra game we don't need and we would more than likely be hammered by a big score down at Sandy Park.

http://www.newcastlefalcons.co.uk/news/story/team-news-eight-changes-for-friday-night

Meanwhile Sale make 5 changes

http://www.salesharks.com/news/5967.php#.Ws8-diXTWeM

Well Dean has freshened things up a bit...

Gary Graham back is a he boost and the old veteran Aly Hogg has been outstanding in his few appearances this season. Lawson will keep the lineout going - apparently Calum Green is league leader in lineout takes and steals.

Joel at 10 and JPS back offers a more running attack at 12 than Matavesi does..looks like we'll open it up tomorrow night.

15 Simon Hammersley
14 Vereniki Goneva
13 Chris Harris
12 Juan Pablo Socino
11 Sinoti Sinoti
10 Joel Hodgson
9 Michael Young

1 Sam Lockwood
2 Scott Lawson
3 Scott Wilson
4 Calum Green
5 Will Witty
6 Will Welch (captain)
7 Gary Graham
8 Ally Hogg

Replacements
16 Santiago Socino
17 Rob Vickers
18 Trevor Davison
19 Evan Olmstead
20 Ryan Burrows
21 Sonatane Takulua
22 Maxime Mermoz
23 Alex Tait


Sale Starting XV:
15.Byron McGuigan;
14.Marland Yarde,
13.Sam James,
12.Luke James,
11. Paolo Odogwu;
10.AJ MacGinty,
9.Faf De Klerk;

1.Ross Harrison,
2.Rob Webber,
3.WillGriff John,
4.Bryn Evans,
5.Andrei Ostrikov,
6.Jono Ross (Capt.),
7.Ben Curry,
8.Josh Strauss.

Replacements: 16.Marc Jones, 17.Alexandru Tarus, 18. Halani Aulika, 19. Josh Beaumont, 20.TJ Ioane, 21.Tom Curry, 22.Will Cliff, 23.Cameron Redpath.

No matter their final position in the league Falcons should be really happy with this season, reminds me of Quins last couple of seasons under Deano before the event...

Hey in one of those two seasons we even got shafted by a late Tigers run up the table just like is happening to you boys too


God we can only dream of those heady days now!!

I actually wouldn't be fussed about not making the play offs Yappy.

I said top 6 this season and if we get that its been a superb season.
A bit of shrewd recruitment in the summer by the crafty old dog Dean and we'll be stronger.

Yea I think that's it, sometimes over reaching can do more harm then good.

Looking at your squad i'm stunned by how well you've done and how Poopie Quins have been. It just shows rugby is a team game and it's not the individuals that win you games but the collective.

Do you need any more signings? Or hoping for any others? I still think you need a better 10 then Hodgson, although Flood is a quality experienced player.

Hhmmm that's the question yappy.

We need a few top class props. That's a definite. Davy Wilson is done, and Scotty Wilson.... I'm not sure he's the player we hoped...think his injuries may have damaged his progress too much. A good Loosehead wouldn't go a miss also. But we do have a few lads who are being worked on who are showing potential. If they come good...all the better. Oh for Carl Hayman to be back in his prime! Best TH ive ever seen!

As for the rest...I don't think we need much at all. Only J P Socino is leaving who is a key player, but Matavesi has replaced him, and we have loads of academy lads really pushing this season as well. Kibirige finally back looking exhilarating and Radwan another winger looking insane. PLus England age group players in loads of positions.

Dean has just announced the signing of Gary Grahams young brother who is a 19 yo flanker who is supposedly potentially even better than Gary but in the same aggressive, physical style. And we have youngsters like Simon "the tank" Uzokwe coming through.

A few non 1st teamers will leave and Dean will most likely replace them with more shrewd rough diamonds or a few older guys who need their career rejuvenated...Dean is great at that.

So sorry that was a long way of saying yes we need props (really good ones) but no not a lot else...the team just needs to continue gaining experience and getting better at Deans systems.

We need a few signings as GF says, especially if we want to kick on to the next level and challenge the top 4. 2 x good props, a good carrying backrower and possibly a centre (Johnny Williams?)

Halfbacks, back 3 and locks are well covered, we've got Cavubati who's not even made an appearance from what I recall.

Ben Youngs back ( on bench) for tigers

Veainu, Thompstone, Smith, May, Ford, Harrison, Genge, Youngs, Cole, Kitchener, Fitzgerald, Mapapalangi, Hamilton, Kalamafoni.

TPN, Bateman, Logo, Wells, Evans, Youngs, Worth, Holmes

Leicester Tigers (v Northampton Saints, Welford Road, Saturday 3.00pm)

15 Telusa Veainu

14 Adam Thompstone

13 Matt Smith

12 Matt Toomua

11 Jonny May

10 George Ford

9 Sam Harrison

1 Ellis Genge

2 Tom Youngs (c)

3 Dan Cole

4 Mike Fitzgerald

5 Graham Kitchener

6 Valentino Mapapalangi

7 Luke Hamilton

8 Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements

16 Tatafu Polota-Nau

17 Greg Bateman

18 Logovi’i Mulipola

19 Harry Wells

20 Will Evans

21 Ben Youngs

22 George Worth

23 Jonah Holmes

Northampton Saints: 15 Ahsee Tuala, 14 Ben Foden, 13 Rob Horne (c), 12 Piers Francis, 11 George North, 10 Stephen Myler, 9 Cobus Reinach; 1 Campese Ma’afu, 2 Mikey Haywood, 3 Paul Hill, 4 Api Ratuniyarawa, 5 James Craig, 6 Jamie Gibson, 7 Teimana Harrison, 8 Mitch Eadie

Replacements: 16 Charlie Clare, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Ehren Painter, 19 Michael Paterson, 20 Ben Nutley, 21 Alex Mitchell, 22 Luther Burrell, 23 Tom Collins

I'd have liked to see Evans start but other than that it's as expected pretty much.

HARLEQUINS HAS TODAY NAMED THE MATCHDAY 23 TO FACE GLOUCESTER RUGBY AT KINGSHOLM IN ROUND 20 OF THE AVIVA PREMIERSHIP (SATURDAY 14TH APRIL, KICK-OFF 15:00).

There are five changes to the starting 15 from last week's encounter with London Irish.

In the backs, Jamie Roberts comes in to partner Joe Marchant in the centres as Francis Saili misses out (shoulder). Alofa Alofa also starts, to form the back three alongside Mike Brown and Charlie Walker.

In the forwards there are three changes, with Joe Gray starting at hooker. There is a brand new second row as club captain James Horwill packs down with George Merrick in the engine room. Merrick starts for the first time since January following his recovery from injury.

In the replacements, Elia Elia will look to feature for the first time since January.

Harlequins squad to play Gloucester Rugby

15. Mike Brown
14. Charlie Walker
13. Joe Marchant
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Alofa Alofa
10. Marcus Smith
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Joe Gray
3. Kyle Sinckler
4. George Merrick
5. James Horwill (Captain)
6. Jack Clifford
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Mat Luamanu

16. Elia Elia
17. Mark Lambert
18. Will Collier
19. Stan South
20. Luke Wallace
21. Dave Lewis
22. James Lang
23. Gabriel Ibitoye

Good team that. You look at those names and on paper that's a top 6 team easily. Got to ask what the coaches have been doing, how can so many good players underperform so badly.

Still great to see Horwill and Merrick back. Strong backline too and the subs bench for once looks exciting!

Very much a game of two halves at Kingston Park last night. It seemed to take Sale 30 minutes to shake off travel rust by which time Falcons had the TBP.

Overall an entertaining match.

Be interesting to see how Jack Clifford goes.

What a player that Toomua is....top class!

And Genge is like a young Mike Tyson, just angry and insanely powerful.

Genge has to be in the England squad, what a threat.

Tigers lineout is awful, Youngs is throwing a few stinkers.

Youngs was never the best lineout technician mind. But yes he's not having a great day in that department.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:Genge has to be in the England squad, what a threat.

Imagine him and Sinkler at prop. That'll be fireworks...in more than one way

How the hell are we losing?

Well I know, really. Butchering chances and the lineout. Hopefully we can sort things out, because every time we have the ball we look dangerous.

Can't see you losing this one LT, you look like scoring everytime you get in the Saints half.

Maybe I spoke too soon...very impressive from Saints. Great to see Paul Hill back and playing well too.

I agree with the commentators, Temeina Harrison has had an excellent game today at 7.

But he's not going to challenge the Curry Brothers for that 7 spot. I was hugely impressed with them last night.

I didn't see that one coming! Huge result for Saints.

Harrison was good but not quite physical to make the step for me. I've never seen the Curry boys really impress that much, I'll have to watch replay of the game yesterday.

Ah FFS...

Saints better play like that v Wasps otherwise I will have zero respect for them.... (Please beat wasps )

Gonna be a tight run in.

I'm still backing tigers to beat Falcons at Home, Sale away though also Wasps v Falcons final game.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:I didn't see that one coming! Huge result for Saints.

Harrison was good but not quite physical to make the step for me. I've never seen the Curry boys really impress that much, I'll have to watch replay of the game yesterday.

Didn't see this coming either.  Especially with a lot of Saints forwards injured.  The level of effort was better than in many games this season, so someone must have lit a candle under Saints.  

It did seem Tigers had the ball a lot more than Saints and seemed to be always on the cusp of breaking through.  But Tigers defense seemed a bit sloppy and a lot of Saints better attacking runs included at least one missed tackle.  Also Tigers lineout was poor.  So somewhat hard to tell how much of the result was Saints or Tigers..............

Thought Reinach very good.  Probably his best game.  Gibson, Hill, Myler, Harrison, and Foden pretty good, too.  

Genge is a beast.

Genge was rather good again wasn't he. Toomua will be kicking himself. Through with players supporting him twice and 2 abysmal decisions/execution of passes.

How old is Genge? The commentators were painting him as being a bit on the edge, somewhat out of control, always looking for confrontation. I saw that too, but not sure if that is just a young, strong player growing into his game or something else. Hopefully just the growing pains, so to speak. He is powerful and is a talent.

doctor_grey wrote:How old is Genge?  The commentators were painting him as being a bit on the edge, somewhat out of control, always looking for confrontation.  I saw that too, but not sure if that is just a young, strong player growing into his game or something else.  Hopefully just the growing pains, so to speak.  He is powerful and is a talent.  

Just turned 23

Genge likes to get in the face of the opposition. He's very confrontational on the pitch particularly with the opposition tighthead. There was a great shot after the game Vs Bath where he'd had a running battle with Shaun Knight and generally pasted the Bath tighthead at the scrum but after the game they were doing a lap of the pitch applauding the fans having a casual chat.

I don't think he's out of control, what he does is calculated. Sometimes the refs don't like it so he occasionally concedes a penalty then reels it in.

I'm unsure what to make of Tigers. I think I back the players but not the head coach. We've seen that Tigers badly need an openside on the field and that Evans has started off the bench but MOC is just too blinkered to adapt. I would be adverse to a change at the top this summer but retaining the rest of the coaching structure.

Four Saracens tries from four daft Bath mistakes today.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Genge likes to get in the face of the opposition. He's very confrontational on the pitch particularly with the opposition tighthead. There was a great shot after the game Vs Bath where he'd had a running battle with Shaun Knight and generally pasted the Bath tighthead at the scrum but after the game they were doing a lap of the pitch applauding the fans having a casual chat.

I don't think he's out of control, what he does is calculated. Sometimes the refs don't like it so he occasionally concedes a penalty then reels it in.

I'm unsure what to make of Tigers. I think I back the players but not the head coach. We've seen that Tigers badly need an openside on the field and that Evans has started off the bench but MOC is just too blinkered to adapt. I would be adverse to a change at the top this summer but retaining the rest of the coaching structure.

I mean the players where pretty crap anyway.
I agree on the openside, but too many senior players making silly errors against a saints team playing their final basically.

If we play like that v Falcons I am going to be worried about the future going forward but if we return to the last 5 games form before that and beat them not so much.

Welly wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Genge likes to get in the face of the opposition. He's very confrontational on the pitch particularly with the opposition tighthead. There was a great shot after the game Vs Bath where he'd had a running battle with Shaun Knight and generally pasted the Bath tighthead at the scrum but after the game they were doing a lap of the pitch applauding the fans having a casual chat.

I don't think he's out of control, what he does is calculated. Sometimes the refs don't like it so he occasionally concedes a penalty then reels it in.

I'm unsure what to make of Tigers. I think I back the players but not the head coach. We've seen that Tigers badly need an openside on the field and that Evans has started off the bench but MOC is just too blinkered to adapt. I would be adverse to a change at the top this summer but retaining the rest of the coaching structure.

I mean the players where pretty crap anyway.  
I agree on the openside, but too many senior players making silly errors against a saints team playing their final basically.  

If we play like that v Falcons I am going to be worried about the future going forward but if we return to the last 5 games form before that and beat them not so much.

I think this was probably the sloppiest game I recall seeing Leicester play. The lineout was poor, the tackling was mediocre, decision making not great. Really kept Saints in the match and they eventually took advantage. Not sure if this is a player problem, a coaching problem, but I suspect a bit of both. At times looked a little like some Saints matches from last season (this season clearly more horrible).

Really dissapointing friom Tigers, that'll teach me to show some optimism.

Whilst the top 2 are pretty much set the race for 3rd/4th is wide open ,  Gloucester have put themslves back in the mix with a big win. Newcastle fans predictions of doom seem unfounded ... a top 4 finish for them would be a hell of an achievement if they can stay there.

I am still struggling to believe we threw that game away.

The frustrating thing is that Tigers are actually a good side when they play a simpler, more direct game off 9, rather than always going for the killer move. Sometimes it almost feels like the team think that style of rugby is beneath them and should only be used as a back up plan if the fancy stuff out wide isn't working.

A lot has been said about the Saints backlash from the Sarries game, but having watched the game twice now I just can't see it. They weren't particularly physical, the defence wasn't ferocious and the linespeed was standard - if anything I think Tigers won the gainline battle. I genuinely believe if Tigers played the same style of rugby as last week and was willing to grind out a lead before going for tries, Saints would've been out of it before half time.

Actually sod all that, if the lineout had the 93% success rate that it's had since Bakewell arrived it probably would've been a win. The first time in a long time that I've thought Tigers lost the match as much as the opposition won it, and I absolutely hate seeing fans say that.

Top 4 still doable thanks to Worcester, but it's a much tougher task now.

We dominated possession and territory. We seemed to cut them apart almost with ease (especially first half) with a huge number of clean breaks from us and missed tackles by Saints. We got into their 22 over a dozen times without scoring (due mainly to lineout failures and poor decision making). Saints were really physical against us at the start of the season following their first Sarries man shaming, but this time their pack (until Genge went off) was barely a feature. Saints were clinical though - scoring every time they got close to our line.

I see Toomua made a few of the papers teams of the weak - but he completely botched a certain try with an appalling pass near the end. Support runners failed to get close enough to him in the first half, Veainu dropped a pass when he had an easy run-in, a poor cut out pass to May (Toomua again?) in the first half stopped his momentum and allowed the cover tackle in the corner.

Saints won because they took their chances while under minimal pressure we failed to take enough of ours.

Leicester Tigers (v Newcastle Falcons, Welford Road, Friday 7.45pm)

15 Telusa Veainu
14 Adam Thompstone
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Matt Toomua
11 Jonny May
10 George Ford (c)
9 Ben Youngs
1 Ellis Genge
2 Tatafu Polota-Nau
3 Dan Cole
4 Mike Fitzgerald
5 Graham Kitchener
6 Luke Hamilton
7 Brendon O’Connor
8 Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements

16 Tom Youngs
17 Greg Bateman
18 Logovi’i Mulipola
19 Harry Wells
20 Mike Williams
21 Sam Harrison
22 Mathew Tait
23 Jonah Holmes

Newcastle Falcons: 15 Simon Hammersley, 14 Vereniki Goneva, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Josh Matavesi, 11 Sinoti Sinoti, 10 Joel Hodgson, 9 Michael Young; 1 Sam Lockwood, 2 Scott Lawson, 3 Scott Wilson, 4 Calum Green, 5 Sean Robinson, 6 Mark Wilson (c), 7 Gary Graham, 8 Ally Hogg
Replacements: 16 Santiago Socino, 17 Rob Vickers, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Will Witty, 20 Ryan Burrows, 21 Sonatane Takulua, 22 Juan Pablo Socino, 23 Alex Tait

Tigers pretty much at full strength for this must win game. Shame that the return of BOC and Williams means no place for Evans.

LondonTiger wrote:Tigers pretty much at full strength for this must win game. Shame that the return of BOC and Williams means no place for Evans.

Agreed.

I wonder how many late fitness tests will be required beforehand and whether we'll see any late changes.

Should be a good game looking at those teams. I'd hope home advantage and the greater experience we have in the front row and midfield will help us control the game. I do worry for our lineout as that creaked last weekend and with Green and Robinson up against us this weekend they'll be a lot of pressure on Kitch, Wells may come off the bench earlier to help him out if Fitz isn't proving the best foil.

Can't think of anyone else who would be ahead of those players on paper.

Glad to see BOC he was the form 7 before his injury.
Going to be a big hard battle with that Falcons backrow Wilson, Graham and Hogg not really fetchers but will clear out rucks all day.

Best starting 15 of the season so far? Maybe for the last couple of years even. Only changes I'd have is Malouf ahead of Thompstone and I think Williams provides a better balance with BOC and Sione, though Hamilton is a better player overall.

The squad is in a real good position in terms of injuries and the coaching team are now well settled so no excuses this season, time to see whether they are good enough.

That's a strong looking Tigers side!

We're missing a few key players in Welsh, Cooper, Welch, Latu....so I would certainly give you the advantage. I'm not looking forward to seeing the scrum contest either, could be messy.

I'm going for Tigers 38-20 Falcons

Newcastle Falcons team to face Leicester Tigers (Friday, 7.45pm, Welford Road, live on BT Sport)

15 Simon Hammersley
14 Vereniki Goneva
13 Chris Harris
12 Josh Matavesi
11 Sinoti Sinoti
10 Joel Hodgson
9 Michael Young

1 Sam Lockwood
2 Scott Lawson
3 Scott Wilson
4 Calum Green
5 Sean Robinson
6 Mark Wilson (captain)
7 Gary Graham
8 Ally Hogg

Replacements
16 Santiago Socino
17 Rob Vickers
18 Trevor Davison
19 Will Witty
20 Ryan Burrows
21 Sonatane Takulua
22 Juan Pablo Socino
23 Alex Tait

My problem with this side, is that theres only really 4 good carriers in the whole side.

Sinoti, Goneva, Hodgson and Graham. Matavesi is no JP in the running department.

I think we'll lose this and probably the next game v Wasps at home.

GeordieFalcon wrote:My problem with this side, is that theres only really 4 good carriers in the whole side.

Sinoti, Goneva, Hodgson and Graham. Matavesi is no JP in the running department.

I think we'll lose this and probably the next game v Wasps at home.

As a Glaws fan I am praying for a draw and a five point win for us. Feel free to lose against Wasps though.

Looking at the games I would hazard a guess at Sale missing out on the top 6 and Leicester making the top 4.