Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

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As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

Newcastle Falcons team v Wasps (Saturday, 4pm, Kingston Park Stadium, live on BT Sport)

15 Simon Hammersley
14 Alex Tait
13 Chris Harris
12 Juan Pablo Socino
11 Zach Kibirige
10 Josh Matavesi
9 Sonatane Takulua

1 Rob Vickers
2 Scott Lawson
3 Trevor Davison
4 Evan Olmstead
5 Will Witty
6 Mark Wilson (captain)
7 Gary Graham
8 Ally Hogg

Replacements

16 Santiago Socino
17 Sam Lockwood
18 David Wilson
19 Glen Young
20 Nili Latu
21 Sam Stuart
22 Craig Willis
23 Tom Penny

Wasps

15 Willie Le Roux
14 Josh Bassett
13 Gaby Lovobalavu
12 Kyle Eastmond
11 Elliot Daly
10 Danny Cipriani
9 Joe Simpson

1 Ben Harris
2 Tom Cruse
3 Marty Moore
4 Joe Launchbury (captain)
5 Kearnan Myall
6 James Haskell
7 Thomas Young
8 Jack Willis

Replacements

16 Tommy Taylor
17 Matt Mullan
18 Jake Cooper-Woolley
19 Will Rowlands
20 Guy Thompson
21 Dan Robson
22 Jimmy Gopperth
23 Juan De Jongh

Sold out KP,

Falcons in the play offs...

Vickers and Hoggs last game at KP as they retire...JP Socino's last as he moves to Edinburgh ( )

Bank holiday weekend,

The sun expected to be blasting down (yeah you read correct!) its hot at the moment...

Theres going to be a party atmosphere!!!

The two pinters will be flowing!!

doctor_grey wrote:

king_carlos wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Really not happy that Evans is excluded. He may need to move clubs

That's currently my biggest worry about MOCs selection policy. Evans has been ill/injured throughout points this season when MOC has been criticised for picking unbalanced back rows. He is fit and playing well now though, yet still isn't selected.

MOCs tactics seem to be using his forwards as blunt instruments then going wing to wing through the backs. Neither will work against the best sides that Tigers should be challenging.

We have a talented, academy developed player, in a key position, who almost always has a positive impact on games when he plays. Yet he isn't selected...

You Leicester guys think MOC survives the off season?  I am not nearly as close to it as you are, but my old man lives in Market Harborough and hears a lot of dissatisfaction with him.  

Word of mouth is that he's been told that if we qualify for Europe he gets next season, if we don't he goes.

He was hired due to lack of other options and little interest from the few available. Opinions around fans are a bit split but overall MOC isn't popular with long term fans - which is a recurring theme across MOCs career...

Ged Glynn (head of rugby operations) has many doubters too, as do a lot of the board. Glynn was a good scout who is out of his depth running recruitment at a club such as Tigers. There are several issues at board level, a clear out of some suits to get a bit of fresh air is desperately needed.

I don't like MOCs tactics or selections but cutting him this early would depend on the coaching team replacing him. If the top job could tempt Paul Gustard then I'd be very interested in changes being made.

doctor_grey wrote:

king_carlos wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Really not happy that Evans is excluded. He may need to move clubs

That's currently my biggest worry about MOCs selection policy. Evans has been ill/injured throughout points this season when MOC has been criticised for picking unbalanced back rows. He is fit and playing well now though, yet still isn't selected.

MOCs tactics seem to be using his forwards as blunt instruments then going wing to wing through the backs. Neither will work against the best sides that Tigers should be challenging.

We have a talented, academy developed player, in a key position, who almost always has a positive impact on games when he plays. Yet he isn't selected...

You Leicester guys think MOC survives the off season?  I am not nearly as close to it as you are, but my old man lives in Market Harborough and hears a lot of dissatisfaction with him.  

I know of no Tigers fan who is happy with him and I play rugby in the north of the county and work in Leicester city centre. MOC is the board's man, we had a consultancy firm suggest three potential candidates and board opted to ignore those three options and go for a man popular with some of the senior players. This season has been a disaster though, there's been an improvement in squad but the same dirge on the pitch.

If we finish 7th MOC will be in an untenable position, quite frankly he was earlier in the season but the appointment if Bakewell and some positive results saved him. Finish in the top 6 and he'll be given the start of next season but if he starts badly then he was always an unpopular appointment and come late Autumn it's entirely plausible to have a coach from the SH replace him. If a top replacement were to come available he might not even make it that far.

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

propdavid_london wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Bloody hell Quins! When's the season over??

Completely Agree Yappy.....Position in the table is about where they deserve to be at the moment.
If Worcester do a number on Saints then we will drop to 11 as I don't expect anything against Chiefs (even if they field a 2nd string side to rest players).

As much as the coaches are to blame for the last couple of seasons, the players only have themselves to blame for these last few abject performances.

I don't think I've ever seen a team give up so completely before the end of the season, in any comp. Even the likes of Sunwolves, or Western Force who are tinker every season by every team going show more pride.

Who ever the new coach is needs to crack some heads and I wouldn't be surprised to see some players get moved along, far too comfy.

Welcome to the comfy low end of the table where expectations are not so...........stressful.  We are keeping each other company.  Relax.  Have a pint or three.  Summer's almost here.................
(the agro can start again in September).  

Cheers Doc, I didn't think we'd be relaxing in these parts again. But here we are. It's almost winter here, but the seasons almost over and we can all hope that next season will be better. Just one last weekend to make it through! Please go easy Exeter!

yappysnap wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

propdavid_london wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Bloody hell Quins! When's the season over??

Completely Agree Yappy.....Position in the table is about where they deserve to be at the moment.
If Worcester do a number on Saints then we will drop to 11 as I don't expect anything against Chiefs (even if they field a 2nd string side to rest players).

As much as the coaches are to blame for the last couple of seasons, the players only have themselves to blame for these last few abject performances.

I don't think I've ever seen a team give up so completely before the end of the season, in any comp. Even the likes of Sunwolves, or Western Force who are tinker every season by every team going show more pride.

Who ever the new coach is needs to crack some heads and I wouldn't be surprised to see some players get moved along, far too comfy.

Welcome to the comfy low end of the table where expectations are not so...........stressful.  We are keeping each other company.  Relax.  Have a pint or three.  Summer's almost here.................
(the agro can start again in September).  

Cheers Doc, I didn't think we'd be relaxing in these parts again. But here we are. It's almost winter here, but the seasons almost over and we can all hope that next season will be better. Just one last weekend to make it through! Please go easy Exeter!

Let's hope next season we are pushing each other upwards.........

Enjoy your winter.  Where you are, I hope, doesn't really have big boy winters?  Here in beautiful New Jersey we hit 33°C yesterday!  Time for a:  
Let's make it two.

I think someone needs to remind Wayne Barnes that if the ball is beyond the backfoot the ball is out. Twice he's got that obviously wrong so far.

Falcons not playing well. Poor scrums, charge downs, missed touch. Wasps deserved leaders

20pts away from home in last 4 matches. 6pts in that time at home. Go figure.

Nice end to a poor season for Saints. Ben Foden scores a try in his last game and Stevie Myler scores the last points of the match. Over 550 Saints games played between the two of them. Phenomenal. End of an era.

George Ford looked like his old self. Has he been allowed to play as he wants? Gone was the game plan we've used all season and it was back to Ford challenging the game line and and hitting runners off him.

Interesting that he initially opted to let Joe take the final kick before Logo took it off him. Was that to be a final farewell to Joe?

I wonder if with Toomua on the pitch, Youngs and Ford shovel the ball on, rather than dictating play as they did today.

Falcons become first side to make the playoffs with a negative points difference I think.

i think that is a valid point do we try to play through Toomua too much?

Doubt J.ford will be off.

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

propdavid_london wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Bloody hell Quins! When's the season over??

Completely Agree Yappy.....Position in the table is about where they deserve to be at the moment.
If Worcester do a number on Saints then we will drop to 11 as I don't expect anything against Chiefs (even if they field a 2nd string side to rest players).

As much as the coaches are to blame for the last couple of seasons, the players only have themselves to blame for these last few abject performances.

I don't think I've ever seen a team give up so completely before the end of the season, in any comp. Even the likes of Sunwolves, or Western Force who are tinker every season by every team going show more pride.

Who ever the new coach is needs to crack some heads and I wouldn't be surprised to see some players get moved along, far too comfy.

Welcome to the comfy low end of the table where expectations are not so...........stressful.  We are keeping each other company.  Relax.  Have a pint or three.  Summer's almost here.................
(the agro can start again in September).  

Cheers Doc, I didn't think we'd be relaxing in these parts again. But here we are. It's almost winter here, but the seasons almost over and we can all hope that next season will be better. Just one last weekend to make it through! Please go easy Exeter!

Let's hope next season we are pushing each other upwards.........

Enjoy your winter.  Where you are, I hope, doesn't really have big boy winters?  Here in beautiful New Jersey we hit 33°C yesterday!  Time for a:  
Let's make it two.

Christchurch NZ, It's almost winter now and still 19c so not too bad. Compared to England the winter out here is a walk in the park with the temperature not really getting below 0. Definitely whiskey and wood burner weather though.

Still got a whole load of super rugby to get through yet, Crusaders are going well too which is a plus

Welly wrote: i think that is a valid point do we try to play through Toomua too much?

Doubt J.ford will be off.

I'm not sure it's that straight forward. We haven't had those runners on Ford's shoulders all season, it's one of the reasons he's looked so isolated. I wonder if there was some experimentation of the game plan with the pressure off and the season effectively over. We have previously used Tait as a Toomua stand in with fairly average results.

I hope this is the template for next season. A few less offloads being thrown but some more direct running playing to the strengths of Youngs, Ford and Manu. Could work even better with Toomua as you could use him and Ford as right and left side playmakers and keep the opposition defence guessing.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Welly wrote: i think that is a valid point do we try to play through Toomua too much?

Doubt J.ford will be off.

I'm not sure it's that straight forward. We haven't had those runners on Ford's shoulders all season, it's one of the reasons he's looked so isolated. I wonder if there was some experimentation of the game plan with the pressure off and the season effectively over. We have previously used Tait as a Toomua stand in with fairly average results.

I hope this is the template for next season. A few less offloads being thrown but some more direct running playing to the strengths of Youngs, Ford and Manu. Could work even better with Toomua as you could use him and Ford as right and left side playmakers and keep the opposition defence guessing.

I didn't watch the game on Saturday as I was busy watching my Saints. But I am wondering if this was the biggest problem Tigers had. The Tigers matches I saw later on in the season had a fair amount of sloppy play. Not just the recent problems with poor line outs and ball handling. But also some defensive mistakes, too, and sometimes the attack seemed disjointed or uncoordinated (was this what you referring to about running off Ford?). It stands out to me because it is so unusual to see a Leicester club play like that. Even if they did not have the best players, they pulled out so many games through solid fundamental play.....

doctor_grey wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Welly wrote: i think that is a valid point do we try to play through Toomua too much?

Doubt J.ford will be off.

I'm not sure it's that straight forward. We haven't had those runners on Ford's shoulders all season, it's one of the reasons he's looked so isolated. I wonder if there was some experimentation of the game plan with the pressure off and the season effectively over. We have previously used Tait as a Toomua stand in with fairly average results.

I hope this is the template for next season. A few less offloads being thrown but some more direct running playing to the strengths of Youngs, Ford and Manu. Could work even better with Toomua as you could use him and Ford as right and left side playmakers and keep the opposition defence guessing.

I didn't watch the game on Saturday as I was busy watching my Saints.  But I am wondering if this was the biggest problem Tigers had.  The Tigers matches I saw later on in the season had a fair amount of sloppy play.  Not just the recent problems with poor line outs and ball handling.  But also some defensive mistakes, too, and sometimes the attack seemed disjointed or uncoordinated (was this what you referring to about running off Ford?).  It stands out to me because it is so unusual to see a Leicester club play like that.  Even if they did not have the best players, they pulled out so many games through solid fundamental play.....    

The lack of accuracy has been a problem all season, as you say Tigers normally lock down the basics. The defence has been a mess for some time though so not massively surprised that has been hit and miss this season.

All season we've played this awful attacking structure where the forwards run short and hard and then the backs go wide with the the 13 running a dummy line and the pass going behind to the 12. It's been embarrassingly obvious and impotent. Against Sale we had Ben orchestrating the attack in and around the breakdown with more than just popping it out to a runner otherwise we played far more through 10 with forwards and backs offering options for Ford to pick from. Ford's confidence soared and he was mixing his play like we've not seen for a couple of years, playing flat with both passing and running as well as tactical kicks straight out of the O'Gara playbook.

Defence has been an issue a nice Allen retired. Not sure who the onfield defence captain is, but Niki's second try last week was typical of our lack of organisation. The whole Robin Hood stand was screaming for additional players out left, but we were even slower than Micky Young in reacting to the situation.

LondonTiger wrote:Defence has been an issue a nice Allen retired. Not sure who the onfield defence captain is, but Niki's second try last week was typical of our lack of organisation. The whole Robin Hood stand was screaming for additional players out left, but we were even slower than Micky Young in reacting to the situation.

Ant Allen was a very underrated player. Well outside of Welford Road anyway, shame he was playing at a time when size is such a determining factor for international aspirations. If he'd been around ten years earlier he'd have had a lot more caps to his name.

Looking at Will Evans last instagram story looks like he is London in a hospital of some kind, might be getting specialist surgery maybe. (Speculation).

Either that or he is going to Quins and having a very odd medical....

Welly wrote: Looking at Will Evans last instagram story looks like he is London in a hospital of some kind, might be getting specialist surgery maybe. (Speculation).

Either that or he is going to Quins and having a very odd medical....

Lots of players will be having little clean up ops. Plenty of time to be fully ready for pre season. Given his playing style he'll pick up plenty of knocks.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Defence has been an issue a nice Allen retired. Not sure who the onfield defence captain is, but Niki's second try last week was typical of our lack of organisation. The whole Robin Hood stand was screaming for additional players out left, but we were even slower than Micky Young in reacting to the situation.

Ant Allen was a very underrated player. Well outside of Welford Road anyway, shame he was playing at a time when size is such a determining factor for international aspirations. If he'd been around ten years earlier he'd have had a lot more caps to his name.

He wasn't underrated down the road at Saints. We considered him a royal pain in the a**. Smart player too.

Wasps in adversity..... The odds are against them, away with nothing to lose. All the pressure on Sarries. The vibe is good!

Saracens v Wasps is a lot closer tie than us v Exeter...poor Exeter are HUGE under dogs...

I do like the Devonian mentality. There is something very honest in their brutality.
Still get that young barrel chested 8 off the bench and you never know. Happy days...

In reality, I think it could be a long day at the office for us if Exeter really bring their A game.

In all honesty (despite us actually being there) I don't think we're a top four side just yet. Top 6 yes, and we will continue to improve...but very much a work in progress and inconsistent in certain areas of our game.

But I tell you one thing.....no matter what happens in Exeter.... its great to be a falcon fan at the moment.

But I tell you one thing.....no matter what happens in Exeter.... its great to be a falcon fan at the moment

Especially when they get that roof on the North Stand.

If it was windy you lost the first inch of your beer and if it was raining you could never finish it!


Lots to look forward to but deep down we know the relegation dogfight is never far away...

Have you heard when the building will start?

What a night for Falcons....

Deano - DOR of the year
Goneva - Player of the year
Sinoti - Try of the year
Goneva - Top try scorer
Goneva & Green - Team of the season

What do we think of Gloucester's new logo?

I think its laughable, so imo its a perfect fit for them and its fans.

Have you heard when the building will start?

Nope - all quiet on that front. Hoping this off season, although the Thunder's season will be in full swing then won't it?

I usually haunt a forum that a few City planners or ex planners frequent (mainly to keep an eye out for new pubs opening) but even that lot have nothing to say at the minute.

Yeah but thunder don't get high numbers so they could crack on with the stand during their season

Saracens team to play Wasps (Sarries appearances):
15 Alex Goode (259)
14 Sean Maitland (40)
13 Alex Lozowski (58)
12 Brad Barritt (221)
11 Chris Wyles (252)
10 Owen Farrell (172)
9 Richard Wigglesworth (208)
1 Mako Vunipola (142)
2 Jamie George (194)
3 Vincent Koch (37)
4 Maro Itoje (192)
5 George Kruis (157)
6 Nick Isiekwe (33)
7 Jackson Wray (199)
8 Billy Vunipola (83)

16 Schalk Brits (220)
17 Richard Barrington (134)
18 Juan Figallo (88)
19 Will Skelton (23)
20 Michael Rhodes (67)
21 Ben Spencer (130)
22 Marcelo Bosch (119)
23 Nathan Earle (36)

Wasps team to play Saracens

15. Willie Le Roux
14. Christian Wade
13. Juan De Jongh
12. Jimmy Gopperth
11. Elliot Daly
10. Danny Cipriani
9. Dan Robson
1. Ben Harris
2. Tom Cruse
3. Jake Cooper-Woolley
4. Joe Launchbury
5. Kearnan Myall
6. Jack Willis
7. Thomas Young
8. Nathan Hughes

Replacements:

16. TJ Harris
17. Matt Mullan
18. Marty Moore
19. James Gaskell
20. Guy Thompson
21. Joe Simpson
22. Kyle Eastmond
23. Josh Bassett

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE NEWCASTLE FALCONS

15 Lachie Turner
14 Jack Nowell
13 Henry Slade
12 Sam Hill
11 Olly Woodburn
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Nic White
1 Alec Hepburn
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Mitch Lees
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Ewers
7 Don Armand (capt)
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Ben Moon
18 Greg Holmes
19 Sam Skinner
20 Thomas Waldrom
21 Stuart Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Ian Whitten

Newcastle Falcons team to face Exeter Chiefs (Saturday, 3.30pm, Sandy Park, live on BT Sport)

15 Simon Hammersley
14 Vereniki Goneva
13 Chris Harris
12 Josh Matavesi
11 Sinoti Sinoti
10 Toby Flood
9 Michael Young
1 Sam Lockwood
2 Kyle Cooper
3 Scott Wilson
4 Calum Green
5 Evan Olmstead
6 Mark Wilson (captain)
7 Gary Graham
8 Ally Hogg

Replacements

16 Santiago Socino
17 Rob Vickers
18 David Wilson
19 Will Witty
20 Nili Latu
21 Sonatane Takulua
22 Juan Pablo Socino
23 Alex Tait

Initial observations:

Billy and Hughes both playing.
Lozowski at 13 and no Liam Williams
Isiekwe starts at 6 ahead of specialists
No Haskell, Willis continues at 6 (has he played 7 for Wasps?)

Still no Harry Williams - will he be fit for SA tour?
Toby Flood back in.

Mako is having a great game, what a player.

Did not watch the Sarries - Wasps game but wish I had now, that was some final score...

Saw most of the second half. Looked more like a end of season President's game. Really good watch with both teams letting loose in attack and some thumping hits in defence. Shame I missed the first half as that seems to have been the significant half in deciding the game.

Sarries were outstanding. Dominated the set piece and the collisions from the off. Mako, Itoje and Farrell were top class, Billy put in a big shift too. Sarries just had carrying options all over the park, easy win.

Looked like a swinging arm to the head in that Exeter clear out

Massive forward pass missed too ... officials already sloppy

I'm surprised it was missed as it could of been a red card

Sarries v Wasps match was great to watch but the officiating in that was a bit lax too - near the end forward passes were almost routine ...

Yeah I have a feeling this game will be the same, letting alot go

Seems so - just hope it's even to both sides

It won't be, he can't stop blowing the whistle