Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

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As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

Good Shift from Genge!

Will Evans is such an enjoyable player to watch. He just always has a positive impact on the game.

Good result by tigers...

Tom Youngs had a big impact aswell....carry, carry , carry....and he made yards.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Tom Youngs had a big impact aswell....carry, carry , carry....and he made yards.

Youngs has improved steadily since Polata-nau arrived. The return to form and fitness of our props around him has seen another improvement too. It's great to see given everything that has gone on. I still think he's a better player without the captaincy, Toomua would be a great choice there, but his performances have been getting back to his best.

king_carlos wrote:Will Evans is such an enjoyable player to watch. He just always has a positive impact on the game.

No idea why he didn't start. He made more yards than Tino who is at least two stone heavier and just as quick. Massive work rate and good hands.

Our bench was considerably better and that told. Smith ran hard and straight which eased the pressure on Ford and Toomua. Their forwards tired and ours kept up the pressure. Good victory and now up to third.

Lovely day out at the Gardens.

Warriors are absolutely dominating possession...yet our brick wall defence is just knocking them back.

Worcester tscore a try

13-13

COme on falcons we need to battle here...Wuss are totally up for it.

Hopefully Falcons can hit back and stop them getting anything ... will give LI a faint hope still given the current score at The Stoop ... sure we can manage to lose it still though.

Come on Falcons - LI on a 5 pointer now ...

Worcester try....

I luv Quins - given us 10 points this season ... shame the other teams haven't been as charitable ...

Jeez ... just as a brief chink of light appeared someone flicked the switch off again ...

Another Worcester try....

3 games on the trot now we've been genuinely poor.

We cant afford to leave here with no points at all!

What's happened to Falcons?

27-13 after a Denton try

Looks as if Te'o had a good day

So Tigers 3rd now equal points with Wasps, and 2 points ahead of 5th place Falcons and 3 points ahead of 6th place Sale.

Glous a TBP win or win away to Exeter will take them to 5th, but a loss will leave them 5 points behind the top 4.

Well humped....and no points!

No top four finish for us. We look tired. Maybe going on three fronts has stretched this squad too much ..

LondonTiger wrote:Looks as if Te'o had a good day

He was due one. What are Newcastle doing?!?

On the upside it helps Tigers top four ambitions. Would have liked to see Falcons knock Wasps down to fifth though.

Bummer - a Falcons win would certainly have made it squeaky bum time for Warriors with the LI result today against Quins ... oh well ....

LondonTiger wrote:Looks as if Te'o had a good day

Yes Te’o looked great today - don’t think I’ve seen him play better for Worcester. Denton and Spencer also did well - shame they’re off! Worcester dropped the ball on the line twice so we’re lucky that didn’t cost them more.

Newcastle’s defence awesome in the first half - couldn’t see Worcester getting through.

Very happy with that, thought a LBP was best I could hope for...

Heaf wrote:Bummer - a Falcons win would certainly have made it squeaky bum time for Warriors with the LI result today against Quins ... oh well ....

Irish playing so hard - really feel your pain.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well humped....and no points!

No top four finish for us. We look tired. Maybe going on three fronts has stretched this squad too much ..

Still GF, compare your season now to this time last year. The upwards trajectory is fantastic.

Poor 2nd half from us. We look super tired tbh, I don't think we have the squad to really challenge on 3 fronts and it showed today. Missing Welsh, Wilson and our scrum halfs (who have been on fire) has really hit home at the business end of the season.

Cheers Stub

Unfortunately it's all too late - pretty much everything that could have gone wrong did do after the first game of the season and now we're looking at at least another year in the championship (maybe permanent if the rumours are true) and losing our best young prospects yet again ...

I think I'm going to move to Devon and see if I can get a ST at Chiefs

Heaf wrote:Cheers Stub

Unfortunately it's all too late - pretty much everything that could have gone wrong did do after the first game of the season and now we're looking at at least another year in the championship (maybe permanent if the rumours are true) and losing our best young prospects yet again ...

I think I'm going to move to Devon and see if I can get a ST at Chiefs

 Haha! Hope it doesn’t come to that Heaf, but supporting a team like Worcester I can also see the attraction of Rugby in Devon!

Congrats on today Stub, well deserved win. Your lads were really up for that one in the 2nd half.

stub wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well humped....and no points!

No top four finish for us. We look tired. Maybe going on three fronts has stretched this squad too much ..

Still GF, compare your season now to this time last year. The upwards trajectory is fantastic.

No complaints mate at all..

Lots of the fans are whinging on the unoffy but I don't see why. We've had a great season. A few injuries recently haven't helped but everyteam has that.
It'll only make us stronger next year....

we need to realistic where we are...a team competing on a much smaller budget than most and doing very well at the moment.

I wanted top 6 this season...as long as we get that ill be more than happy.

Cheers Sgt, I could not see us ever getting through the Falcons so I am mightily relieved.

GeordieFalcon wrote:

stub wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well humped....and no points!

No top four finish for us. We look tired. Maybe going on three fronts has stretched this squad too much ..

Still GF, compare your season now to this time last year. The upwards trajectory is fantastic.

No complaints mate at all..

Lots of the fans are whinging on the unoffy but I don't see why. We've had a great season. A few injuries recently haven't helped but everyteam has that.
It'll only make us stronger next year....

we need to realistic where we are...a team competing on a much smaller budget than most and doing very well at the moment.

I wanted top 6 this season...as long as we get that ill be more than happy.

Absolutely GF - this is just the start, next season looks likely to bring even greater rewards.

As you and SP point out, your squad is suddenly fighting on multiple fronts and therefore greater depth is probably required.

I would be very happy if Worcester ever get into the sort of position you are in now.

Really hope quins continue to get tonked for the rest of the season, anything to precipitate the departure of the coaching team.

Kingston's lost the squad, that much is obvious. Time to see if anyone in charge has the balls to do something.

Scottrf wrote:Lovely day out at the Gardens.

I am always happy to wear one on my old Northampton jerseys on game days. I was working A&E (called ER in America) this morning and did not have access to the scores after halftime. What a wonderful surprise to receive after a couple hours surgery. After the squad gets humiliated like today, I am happy I am wearing the jersey here in America where almost no one knows what it means or who the club is...............

Yeah my mates a Saints ST holder...hes just been on the phone and said that's possibly the worst half of rugby he has seen saints play in an awfully long time.

Not the actual rugby...but he was more alarmed by the complete lack of passion, fight , and said only about 2/3 actually looked like they cared what was happening.

Prob the worst half of saints rugby since the last time they played Sarries...

Although last time Sarries tonked them they battered us sooooo

I will watch later today or tomorrow morning.  At least we can see who have a desire to play for Saints next season and who don't.  After a dismal season like this one, now is the time to start setting examples by letting a player or two go.  

Wanderers had a great season in the A league.  So in the organization there are young players playing well enough and anxious to get game time with the top team.  Give them a go.  Can't do worse than today.

doctor_grey wrote:I will watch later today or tomorrow morning.  At least we can see who have a desire to play for Saints next season and who don't.  After a dismal season like this one, now is the time to start setting examples by letting a player or two go.  

Wanderers had a great season in the A league.  So in the organization there are young players playing well enough and anxious to get game time with the top team.  Give them a go.  Can't do worse than today.

From what get told by Saints fans the main reason the wanderers are doing well is because the majority of them are not "youngsters".

They reckon that once Saints culling finishes the wanderers will have less 25 + year old journeymen and more academy/project players.

Jesus Christ

To be fair, last Wanderers side was mainly young. But would agree generally, it's more of a sign of our recruitment than academy.

yappysnap wrote:Jesus Christ

Worst performace I have seen in a decade. Nothing seemed to work for Quins.
Senior players had stonkers (barring Robshaw), Marler and Sinks showed a bit of desire while the rest of the squad looked like they didn't want to be there.

Fans were booing at the final whistle.....never really seen that before and its obvious that the squad isn't buying into whatever the coaches are telling them.

Quins social media seems in anarchy now. Lots of hate on the FB page. Lots of chat on the Quins board that senior players are unhappy with the coaching team, especially Robshaw and Marler. Marler seems pretty outspoken with his anger too.

Jeez I hope they sack the whole coaching team and the inept board who hired this lot. Bring in a fresh team, fresh ideas and some quality leadership.

Lets hope that all the jumping up and down generates some results. Most of the posts I have seen have been STH refusing to renew if there aren't changes at the top. A significant drop in STH would surely make the board take notice.

Marler was already coming off the pitch looking up at the box shaking his head months ago. It's quite obvious Kingston has completely lost the squad.

Sack off Kingston, Mapletoft, Evans, Easter, Jones and any other chancers that are still around because of some misguided loyalty to ex-players, however good they were as players.

We've got good players in the squad (give Kingston some credit there)....but the coaches need to go.

And Kingston has just been fired.....Boom

Finally!

I hope there's more of a clear out then just JK though.

Reamining fixtures:
Newcastle vs Sale (with Sales injuries has to be a Newcastle 4-5 pointer)
Leivester vs Saints (Should be a Tigers 5 pointer continuing their upward march)
Gloucester Quins (Home advantage ..4 pointer keeping gloucester in with a sniff of the playoffs)
Wasps vs Worcester (Wasps should win but recent struggle suggest just a 4 pointer)
Saracens vs Bath ( 4/5 pointer for Saracens putting Bath pretty much out the playoff hunt)
Irish vs Exeter ( 5 pointer for Exeter ...Irish are buried)

Leicester vs Newcastle (probable 4 pointer for Tigers with Youngs and Tuilagi back by then)
Worcester vs Quins (yawn)
Gloucester vs Bath (I'll go with a home win ..both are likley to be outsiders for a playoff spot but good game for the locals)
Exeter vs Sale (not much chance of an upset here even if EWxeter takle their foot off the gas to preserve the squad)
Irish vs Saracens (5 pointer for Saracens surely)
Wasps vs Northampton (should be a comfortable win for Wasps 4/5 points)


Sale vs Tigers (Cipriani should be back for this, not sure about Solamana ...deciding factor could be that Sale have little to play for. Ill go Tigers narrow win)
Quins vs Exeter ( Probably a low key fixture. Neither team will have much to play for other than pride, Exeter should already be top seed. Exeter win)
Northampton vs Worcester (who cares)
Saracens vs Gloucteser (Saracens win)
Newcastle vs Wasps (Tough fixture. Should be a tight game, Im gonna call it a 4-1 pointer)
Bath vs Irish  Bath win. Yawn.


As far as I see it Exeter and Saracens should get home playoffs. Tigers look pretty well set for 3rd and Newcastle Wasps in a real fight for fourth. Bath Gloucester and Sale still have an outside chance of making it.

Also flags up boths ides of the playoffs argument. Exeter not winning the title would seem wrong if they do win their last 3 regular season games. But instead of having a tense exciting run in  followed by two rounds of closely matched winner takes all games we'd be feeling like the season was pretty much over already and drifting through the last 3 weeks. As it is the top 8 can still all theoreticaly win the title, and the bottom 4 all get relegated (although lets face it...its Irish).  All the fixtures currently have an impact on playoffs, relegation and eurpean qualification. Games with meaning are a good thing.

Gooseberry you obviously haven't seen our last 3 games...we're struggling.

Tiredness, and lack of key players is genuinely affecting us.

Apparently Takulua is back for tomorrow v Sale...that would be a massive boost.