Wales v England thread (6 Nations)

[mikey_dragon]

First topic message reminder :

Date: 23rd Feb 2019
Time: 9:45 am (Mountain Time)
Venue: MILLENIUM Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)


Teams:

Wales: Wales: Liam Williams (Saracens); George North (Ospreys), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Worcester); Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, captain), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Aled Davies (Ospreys), Dan Biggar (Northampton), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).


England: Daly; Nowell, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; Moon, George, Sinckler, Lawes, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Williams, Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford, Cokanasiga.

ANY personal attacks will be a ban. No warnings.

[maestegmafia]

Wales online Expected Wales starting XV:

Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

[robbo277]

It's not that nice a schedule, because every other Tier 1 nation has a game against a Tier 2 team as either their penultimate or final pool game, meaning that they have at least one "soft" week before going into the knockout rounds.

Unless either France or Argentina implode completely (not impossible) England have two Tier 1 games, followed by the knockout games, and I believe that no team has ever won 5 tier 1 games on successive weekends. It's a huge ask.

The only real way to do it is to have enough starter-quality players that you can rotate the squad. I think that's why some of the experienced players who are out of the squad this 6N will be back for the RWC squad - Eddie will need to make the campaign a squad effort, and will need some reliable players even if they aren't now in possession of the shirt.

That's because teams rarely play on 5 consecutive weeks. The only time is in World Cups, and you don't normally finish the pool on two Tier 1 fixtures. Australia did in 2015 and won their next 2. They lost the final because they're not as good as New Zealand, not because they had played England 4 weeks ago.

The first two games back-to-back should be challenging but comfortably winnable. France and Argentina I'd expect two 10 point wins, especially coming off a 10 day break. After that we might not win the next 3, but that will be because of the teams we're facing, not because of the schedule we've faced.

But as you ask, New Zealand have won 5 tests in consecutive weeks against Tier 1 (ish) opponents in 2009.
31/10/09 - 32-19 vs Australia (Tokyo)
07/11/09 - 19-12 vs Wales (away)
14/11/09 - 20-6 vs Italy (away)
21/11/09 - 19-6 vs England (away)
28/11/09 - 39-12 vs France (away)

They tried to do the same in 2010 but lost the opener to Australia (before winning their next 4). Australia nearly won 5 in a row in 2010, winning 3 of their next 4 (losing to England in week 3). 2011 was a World Cup and since then they've always had a gap week before their 3 or 4 autumn games in Europe.

[RiscaGame]

Wales online Expected Wales starting XV:

Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

No surprises for me, as it is the team that played against France (Hill aside). I have no qualms about Hill playing. Our lineout hasn’t been great and Hill is the lineout caller normally, so I would expect him to start and us to try resolve our issues. I think although he loses out weight wise to Ball and Beard, he is just as effective in the tight (don’t really see either Ball or Beard making forceful carries really) and I think Hill offers more in the unfashionable stuff (dog work) and with no stats to back it up probably has a higher tackle count normally. Anyway, as I’ve said, no issues for me. The more Dragons players involved in the 23, the better

[mikey_dragon]

Should have a good bench too, although I might’ve started with Davies (Webb if available) over Williams. Anyone else see Mourad’s recent spat? Surely Webb must be looking to get away from there now among others, and we know he’s keen on featuring in the World Cup.

[Poorfour]

Robbo, haven’t you just proved my point? Yes, it’s rare to play 5 games in successive weeks (though you’ve provided several examples from outside the RWC), and no-one has won all of them against Tier 1 opposition. Italy is not a Tier 1 team, and is usually around 20 ranking points behind the All Blacks.

Australia have a pretty good record against New Zealand at the RWC; I doubt anyone would have beaten the 2015 team, but Australia’s chances will certainly have been damaged by their schedule.

The point being, it’s a really tough schedule and England’s progress is going to have to rely on effective squad rotation.

[maestegmafia]

Should have a good bench too, although I might’ve started with Davies (Webb if available) over Williams. Anyone else see Mourad’s recent spat? Surely Webb must be looking to get away from there now among others, and we know he’s keen on featuring in the World Cup.

It would be great news to have Webb available but his agents issued a statement saying he intended to honour his contract.

[Gooseberry]

Robbo, haven’t you just proved my point? Yes, it’s rare to play 5 games in successive weeks (though you’ve provided several examples from outside the RWC), and no-one has won all of them against Tier 1 opposition. Italy is not a Tier 1 team, and is usually around 20 ranking points behind the All Blacks.

Australia have a pretty good record against New Zealand at the RWC; I doubt anyone would have beaten the 2015 team, but Australia’s chances will certainly have been damaged by their schedule.

The point being, it’s a really tough schedule and England’s progress is going to have to rely on effective squad rotation.

Teir 1 has a specific definition in rugby its not based on rankings. Italy are a Tier 1 nation, several of those ranked above them arent, including two from Englands pool (US and Tonga)

But if we take your actual point ...no-one plays 5 top 10 teams in a row on consecutive weekends and wins them then there is some merit in that, but its true of any tests in or out of a world cup. Ultimately to win the world cup youre going to have to win a bunch of games in a row, and against strong opposition.

I do believe though that it would be beneficial if they could play a reserve side in the last pool fixture against a weak team to give the top stars a breather. But is it going it be the key difference in them winning or not? I doubt it, just one of those 1% things. They do have the advantage (as it stands at the moment) of not having any particularly difficult games in those pool stages, and most likely finishing top of their group to miss the top nations in the early knock outs. A gradual increase in intensity and difficulty as the tournament progresses.

It certainly looks a heckins of a lot better for them now than it did when the draw was made with both France and Argentina being at a low ebb.

[maestegmafia]

Wales online Expected Wales starting XV:

Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

No surprises for me, as it is the team that played against France (Hill aside). I have no qualms about Hill playing. Our lineout hasn’t been great and Hill is the lineout caller normally, so I would expect him to start and us to try resolve our issues. I think although he loses out weight wise to Ball and Beard, he is just as effective in the tight (don’t really see either Ball or Beard making forceful carries really) and I think Hill offers more in the unfashionable stuff (dog work) and with no stats to back it up probably has a higher tackle count normally. Anyway, as I’ve said, no issues for me. The more Dragons players involved in the 23, the better

I’m a little surprised at the halfbacks I thought experience, sniping speed at the base of the scrum and a kicking game from Biggar was what they were looking for. Not that Tom and Ga can’t offer that.

There is a hell of a lot of pressure on them to perform in this one. Will this be our halfback pairing for the RWC...? Saturdays game will be a big test for them.

[Gooseberry]

Wales online Expected Wales starting XV:

Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

No surprises for me, as it is the team that played against France (Hill aside). I have no qualms about Hill playing. Our lineout hasn’t been great and Hill is the lineout caller normally, so I would expect him to start and us to try resolve our issues. I think although he loses out weight wise to Ball and Beard, he is just as effective in the tight (don’t really see either Ball or Beard making forceful carries really) and I think Hill offers more in the unfashionable stuff (dog work) and with no stats to back it up probably has a higher tackle count normally. Anyway, as I’ve said, no issues for me. The more Dragons players involved in the 23, the better

I’m a little surprised at the halfbacks I thought experience, sniping speed at the base of the scrum and a kicking game from Biggar was what they were looking for. Not that Tom and Ga can’t offer that.

There is a hell of a lot of pressure on them to perform in this one. Will this be our halfback pairing for the RWC...? Saturdays game will be a big test for them.

I would've though Ansconmbe had firmly established himself as the first choice at FH now? Biggar didn't really do anything with his opportunity to show any different. It may have been a happy accident, but that backs division is largely the one thats been winning the big games for Wales. They have the experience in Biggar to come on if its felt thats needed.
I think Williams over Davies is a bigger call, but one that Gatland had made at the start of the tournament. Williams Anscombe is the first choice half back pairing and it looks increasingly like thats what the plan is to build the world cup team around. They need to start winning these big games together as the next step in that progression. It is a big test for them, but if they aren't ready for it then he shouldn't have been pairing them as his first choice in round 1.

Overall Wales have a really good balance between experience and youth, it bodes well for the future. As with england theres plenty of competition for the lock spots and some power off the bench.

[maestegmafia]

Wales online Expected Wales starting XV:

Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

No surprises for me, as it is the team that played against France (Hill aside). I have no qualms about Hill playing. Our lineout hasn’t been great and Hill is the lineout caller normally, so I would expect him to start and us to try resolve our issues. I think although he loses out weight wise to Ball and Beard, he is just as effective in the tight (don’t really see either Ball or Beard making forceful carries really) and I think Hill offers more in the unfashionable stuff (dog work) and with no stats to back it up probably has a higher tackle count normally. Anyway, as I’ve said, no issues for me. The more Dragons players involved in the 23, the better

I’m a little surprised at the halfbacks I thought experience, sniping speed at the base of the scrum and a kicking game from Biggar was what they were looking for. Not that Tom and Ga can’t offer that.

There is a hell of a lot of pressure on them to perform in this one. Will this be our halfback pairing for the RWC...? Saturdays game will be a big test for them.

I would've though Ansconmbe had firmly established himself as the first choice at FH now?  Biggar didn't really do anything with his opportunity to show any different. It may have been a happy accident, but that backs division is largely the one thats been winning the big games for Wales. They have the experience in Biggar to come on if its felt thats needed.
I think Williams over Davies is a bigger call, but one that Gatland had made at the start of the tournament. Williams Anscombe is the first choice half back pairing and it looks increasingly like thats what the plan is to build the world cup team around. They need to start winning these big games together as the next step in that progression. It is a big test for them, but if they aren't ready for it then he shouldn't have been pairing them as his first choice in round 1.

Overall Wales have a really good balance between experience and youth, it bodes well for the future. As with england theres plenty of competition for the lock spots and some power off the bench.

The general consensus was that Biggar played really well when he came on against France, showed that he knows how to boss the game. Williams was only picked ahead of Davies due to Davies recovering from an injury before the win in Paris.

Davies and Biggar have proven match temperament for big occasions like knock out World Cup games, it is great to see us give the rookies a go but it is a very big call. I think we all expect England to select their strongest team for this match.

[Guest]

I would have gone for Biggar and Davies, personally. They've got plenty of experience of big international games. And I think they'll be better behind a scrum that's under immense pressure and perhaps even going backwards.

Anscombe and Williams are going to have to step up massively compared to their France showing.

[Poorfour]

Teir 1 has a specific definition in rugby its not based on rankings. Italy are a Tier 1 nation, several of those ranked above them arent, including two from Englands pool (US and Tonga)

But if we take your actual point ...no-one plays 5 top 10 teams in a row on consecutive weekends and wins them then there is some merit in that, but its true of any tests in or out of a world cup. Ultimately to win the world cup youre going to have to win a bunch of games in a row, and against strong opposition.

I do believe though that it would be beneficial if they could play a reserve side in the last pool fixture against a weak team to give the top stars a breather. But is it going it be the key difference in them winning or not? I doubt it, just one of those 1% things. They do have the advantage (as it stands at the moment) of not having any particularly difficult games in those pool stages, and most likely finishing top of their group to miss the top nations in the early knock outs. A gradual increase in intensity and difficulty as the tournament progresses.

It certainly looks a heckins of a lot better for them now than it did when the draw was made with both France and Argentina being at a low ebb.

You're right about Italy - I'd forgotten that "Tier 1" is "teams we let into the the top annual competitions" rather than a measure of form. The fact remains that Italy are by some distance less of a challenge than any other team in the Tier 1 category.

Rugby's an attritional game, and a game of small margins. 1% is often the difference between winning and losing at the top level. The point is just that it helps enormously if a QF-bound team can rest some of its players in the last couple of rounds of the pool stages. Winning 3 big games in a row is quite a bit easier than winning 4 and much less challenging than winning 5, because maintaining that level of intensity week-in, week-out is tough.

[maestegmafia]

I would have gone for Biggar and Davies, personally.  They've got plenty of experience of big international games.  And I think they'll be better behind a scrum that's under immense pressure and perhaps even going backwards.  

Anscombe and Williams are going to have to step up massively compared to their France showing.  

I agree. They both have shown superb potential and now is the game they really have to deliver. It is brilliant to have a Biggar available after last weeks scare for Saints, that injury worry may have been a factor

[maestegmafia]

England announce their team first today at 10.30am before a press conference at 11am.

Wales will officially name their squad at midday, followed by a press conference at 1pm.

[Guest]

I think the Summer was a turning point for the 9 shirt. TW showed against SA in particular that he was ready to compete. The next key game was Australia - TW replaced GD and instantly Wales looked a lot more secure at ruck time.

Whilst I'm yet to be convinced of Anscombe's test ability/reliability at 10 he's clearly first choice. As mentioned in the other thread, he was brought over from NZ by Gatland who wanted to play him in the '15 RWC but he wasn't ready in time. Biggar ended up playing his best rugby in that tournament as well.

Honestly, I like the pairing coming from the bench. I see no issue with it. I don't really have a problem with Anscombe either as he offers a running threat at 10 that Wales haven't had since Hook was in form. His passing's not too bad either but can be hit and miss: he's not a Priestland-style distributor who can play flat and bring players into the game phase after phase.

The issue I have is the lack of second playmaker. And obviously Gatland considers Parkes to be that man but, frankly, Parkes played his best rugby when he was moved around the Scarlets team as a utility man. He earnt praise in his adaptability and how he looked great at 12, 13, and even 14 and sometimes 15. He's got a good all round skillset and, at his best, his decision-making and reading of the game is what made him valuable.

But he's not a playmaker. He's not a Slade, or Farrell-at-12, kind of player who will be that second 10 figure wider out or later on in a set move. He's an ok kicker, a good passer (although seems to be throwing intercepts at the moment), and a very good crash ball 12 at club level. But this is international and England have Tuilagi for that kind of carrying work. Frankly, he's not in the same league.

But all this means is that Anscombe is relying on Parkes to share a load and I'm not entirely convinced either is good enough. I know Gatland's probably trying to create a Kiwi combination at 10-12 and hoping they can instinctively work well with each other but, to me, there's not enough reliable creativity in that team. Liam Williams doesn't really offer it either, more of a runner and jinker than playmaker.

Honestly, I hope I'm wrong, but Parkes to me feels second-rate in the way Wales' back play feels second rate. Too often the offloading/passing game is relatively static and 'phase-based'. Even against SA and Aus in the AIs this was the case. By contrast, England are obviously attacking at pace, at deeper angles, and making lots of ground in one phase.

It'll be Wales' defence that wins the game, if they are to win, and counter attacking. That's where Anscombe might shine.

[Scottrf]

1. Moon
2. George
3. Sinckler
4. Lawes
5. Kruis
6. Wilson
7. Curry
8. Vunipola
9. Youngs
10. Farrell
11. May
12. Tuilagi
13. Slade
14. Nowell
15. Daly
16. Cowan-Dickie
17. Genge
18. Williams
19. Launchbury
20. Shields
21. Robson
22. Ford
23. Cockanasiga

No surprises then (except some expectation of Genge to start I guess).

[munkian]

BRING IT

[Ricardo74]

I guess Shields onto the bench ahead of Hughes is the only one worthy of comment - everything else is as predicted; notwithstanding discussion of Moon / Genge in starter vs finisher role.

[Sgt_Pooly]

Wilson ahead of Shields......

Happy with that selection, only really Mako/Underhill/Itoje that could really improve that lineup. Some good impact from the bench which could be key. Can't wait to see Genge and Big Joe rampaging about.

[Scottrf]

Can't believe we've gone 14 pages of a Wales vs England thread with no locks! Quite civil.

So buzzing for this game now.

[Duty281]

Surprised that Shields is on the bench, but otherwise it's as expected. Excellent that England are starting to get relatively consistent XVs ahead of the World Cup, and the bench looks formidable. If this England side delivers a good performance they will win on Saturday, irrespective of what Wales can bring.

[munkian]

Surprised that Shields is on the bench, but otherwise it's as expected. Excellent that England are starting to get relatively consistent XVs ahead of the World Cup, and the bench looks formidable. If this England side delivers a good performance they will win on Saturday,irrespective of what Wales can bring.

Unless Wales have a better performance ?

[Duty281]

Surprised that Shields is on the bench, but otherwise it's as expected. Excellent that England are starting to get relatively consistent XVs ahead of the World Cup, and the bench looks formidable. If this England side delivers a good performance they will win on Saturday,irrespective of what Wales can bring.

Unless Wales have a better performance ?

Nah, not good enough. If England deliver a 7/10 performance, or better, it'll be more than Wales can bring.

[munkian]

Surprised that Shields is on the bench, but otherwise it's as expected. Excellent that England are starting to get relatively consistent XVs ahead of the World Cup, and the bench looks formidable. If this England side delivers a good performance they will win on Saturday,irrespective of what Wales can bring.

Unless Wales have a better performance ?

Nah, not good enough. If England deliver a 7/10 performance, or better, it'll be more than Wales can bring.

Riiiight...

[Guest]

Very scientific/dismissive there.

Aside from the obvious two things stand out to me: firsty Cokanasiga's power from the bench, and the fact that England have a weakness at 9.

[Duty281]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

[munkian]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

[Ricardo74]

Very scientific/dismissive there.

Aside from the obvious two things stand out to me: firsty Cokanasiga's power from the bench, and the fact that England have a weakness at 9.

I think it's only a weakness at 9 in terms of game time for Robson. Huge game, and if Youngs limps off after 10 mins it'll be a big ask for him! That said, I believe he's got the quality, even if Eddie seems to have his doubts!

Big Joe and Genge coming on rampaging for the last 20 mins could be tasty as anything.

Looking forward to seeing the Welsh side in a bit. Cannot *wait* for this game!

[Duty281]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

Pretty much. In form and settled. The polar opposite of Wales.

[Guest]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

[Duty281]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

Yes, exactly. England are strong favourites.

[munkian]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

Pretty much. In form and settled. The polar opposite of Wales.

Play a team with an actual FB and we'll talk.

[Guest]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

Yes, exactly. England are strong favourites.

In your mind...

[Scottrf]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

Pretty much. In form and settled. The polar opposite of Wales.

Play a team with an actual FB and we'll talk.

How about Folau? 37-18.

[munkian]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

Pretty much. In form and settled. The polar opposite of Wales.

Play a team with an actual FB and we'll talk.

How about Folau? 37-18.

Oh we are going back to last year are we ? Jesus...

[Duty281]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

Yes, exactly. England are strong favourites.

In your mind...

'Tis the point of an opinion forum. England have very little to fear from Wales, it's just because of the rivalry factor that makes it seem closer. Were England playing Argentina this Saturday, no one would have any problem chalking England up as strong favourites. As it is, the bookmakers do give England a 64% chance, there or thereabouts.

[Scottrf]

It's not a detraction of Wales' ability, more a reflection of how good England are at this present moment.

Based on two games ? Got ya.

Pretty much. In form and settled. The polar opposite of Wales.

Play a team with an actual FB and we'll talk.

How about Folau? 37-18.

Oh we are going back to last year are we ? Jesus...

You've literally just criticised someone for basing a prediction on two games, then criticised someone if they go one game further back.

[compelling and rich]

Can't believe we've gone 14 pages of a Wales vs England thread with no locks! Quite civil.

So buzzing for this game now.

duty took it upon himself to wind the welsh up right after this

im keeping quiet on predictions, Englands recent record when ive been attending has been poor. hoping it changes Saturday, im sure the welsh will be magnanimous in victory if not

[BigTrevsbigmac]

Surprised that Shields is on the bench, but otherwise it's as expected. Excellent that England are starting to get relatively consistent XVs ahead of the World Cup, and the bench looks formidable. If this England side delivers a good performance they will win on Saturday, irrespective of what Wales can bring.

Shields can cover the whole back row and is more versatile than Hughes. I think it’s the right call. Shields will come good I have every confidence.
Robson won’t let anyone down either, he should have been given a chance a while ago when Jones insisted only ever having 2 SHs in his squads.
I am really excited with our bench that will be some impact!

[Guest]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

Yes, exactly. England are strong favourites.

In your mind...

'Tis the point of an opinion forum. England have very little to fear from Wales, it's just because of the rivalry factor that makes it seem closer. Were England playing Argentina this Saturday, no one would have any problem chalking England up as strong favourites. As it is, the bookmakers do give England a 64% chance, there or thereabouts.

Except, of course, Wales comfortably beat Argentina in Argentina last Summer...haha, what are you on about?! It's a bit like saying "well, if Wales were playing France this weekend, no-one would be talking about this as a Grand Slam decider!"

As I said, the strong favourites tag is all in your mind. England are favourites but to suggest all they have to do is turn up and perform has no grounding in recent history.

1. Wales beat them in 2015 despite suffering a plethora of injuries, at Twickenham, in a RWC, by kicking their goals and forcing England into mistakes by keeping the ball moving. By the end of the game they were the better side.
2. England battered Wales at HQ for the first 50 mins yet Wales again came back into it late on, scoring 3 tries and may well have won the game had a SH, England-favouring ref not incorrectly called North in touch in England's 22. England went on to win the GS. Harsh, but again, despite being outplayed WALES NEARLY NICKED THE WIN. This is the key point to remember here.
3. The only home game of the 4 here. Wales outplayed England for the most part but couldn't score tries to save their life. It took a big collective mistake from Wales for England to get the decisive score to win by 5 points. England went on the win the title.
4. At HQ, Wales have a try incorrectly disallowed. Again, played the better running rugby, but physically dominated in the tackle area. Lost the game by 6 points in dreadful conditions that favoured England.

So nothing in history suggests England simply have to play '7 out of 10' and they'll win the game.

The issue is, as ever, English fans overvaluing their team (which is hard to do at the moment as they're looking very good - but you've managed it!) and also undervaluing the opposition because you only watch them when they're on the BBC.

[Scottrf]

If we can't go back to November 2018, we definitely can't go back to September 2015.

[Duty281]

Can't believe we've gone 14 pages of a Wales vs England thread with no locks! Quite civil.

So buzzing for this game now.

duty took it upon himself to wind the welsh up right after this

im keeping quiet on predictions, Englands recent record when ive been attending has been poor. hoping it changes Saturday, im sure the welsh will be magnanimous in victory if not

I'm genuinely not on the wind-up, I'm only saying it how I see it. If I thought England would lose I would say so! As it is, England have delivered two performances of the highest quality, whilst Wales have struggled to victory in both their games. England have a settled selection, Wales do not. England have scored more tries + points than Wales, and conceded fewer tries + points, in the two games thus far. All that and England have faced tougher opposition.

England have the stronger squad on paper and the better coaching staff (some of England's recent displays have been tactical masterclasses).  Advantage at the line-out, maul and breakdown all go to England. England also have the psychological advantage of winning four consecutive games over the Welsh. What Wales do have is home advantage, but I'm unsure how big a factor this will be as England have won on their last two visits to Cardiff.

I'd struggle to make an argument for Wales winning this.

[Guest]

If I thought England would lose I would say so!

If the opposite was all you'd said no-one would have had an issue. But it wasn't.

Anyway, the game doesn't take place here.

[Duty281]

It literally is. You're saying that all England have to do is turn up and put in a good to very good performance and they'll win away from home. Irrespetive of the fact that Wales have come very close to winning 3 of the last 4 competitive games despite either marginally losing or being comprhensively beaten in the physial aspects.

So, all in all, it's a bit of a stupid statement.

Yes, exactly. England are strong favourites.

In your mind...

'Tis the point of an opinion forum. England have very little to fear from Wales, it's just because of the rivalry factor that makes it seem closer. Were England playing Argentina this Saturday, no one would have any problem chalking England up as strong favourites. As it is, the bookmakers do give England a 64% chance, there or thereabouts.

Except, of course, Wales comfortably beat Argentina in Argentina last Summer...haha, what are you on about?! It's a bit like saying "well, if Wales were playing France this weekend, no-one would be talking about this as a Grand Slam decider!"

As I said, the strong favourites tag is all in your mind. England are favourites but to suggest all they have to do is turn up and perform has no grounding in recent history.

1. Wales beat them in 2015 despite suffering a plethora of injuries, at Twickenham, in a RWC, by kicking their goals and forcing England into mistakes by keeping the ball moving. By the end of the game they were the better side.
2. England battered Wales at HQ for the first 50 mins yet Wales again came back into it late on, scoring 3 tries and may well have won the game had a SH, England-favouring ref not incorrectly called North in touch in England's 22. England went on to win the GS. Harsh, but again, despite being outplayed WALES NEARLY NICKED THE WIN. This is the key point to remember here.
3. The only home game of the 4 here. Wales outplayed England for the most part but couldn't score tries to save their life. It took a big collective mistake from Wales for England to get the decisive score to win by 5 points. England went on the win the title.
4. At HQ, Wales have a try incorrectly disallowed. Again, played the better running rugby, but physically dominated in the tackle area. Lost the game by 6 points in dreadful conditions that favoured England.

So nothing in history suggests England simply have to play '7 out of 10' and they'll win the game.

The issue is, as ever, English fans overvaluing their team (which is hard to do at the moment as they're looking very good - but you've managed it!) and also undervaluing the opposition because you only watch them when they're on the BBC.

1) 2015 = irrelevant.
2) In your mind.
3) In your mind.
4) In your mind.

I don't only watch Wales on the BBC either (I also watch them on ITV and weren't they on Channel 4 not too long ago?). I'm not dealing with history, mainly the present. If England play as they do against Ireland, Wales have nil chance.

The strong favourites tag is not only in my mind, either, as the bookmakers make England strong favourites.

[Duty281]

If I thought England would lose I would say so!

If the opposite was all you'd said no-one would have had an issue. But it wasn't.

Anyway, the game doesn't take place here.

If I thought Wales only had to deliver a 7/10 performance to beat England, I'd say so.

[eirebilly]

English fans have every right to feel confident going into this weekends match, they have been by far the best team so far.

That said, Wales are not a side I am ever confident about facing.

Think this may be a lot closer than the form books will have us believe.

[Guest]

If we can't go back to November 2018, we definitely can't go back to September 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSW1kUtuVQk

[Scottrf]

If we can't go back to November 2018, we definitely can't go back to September 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSW1kUtuVQk

One of those isn't playing, one is in Ireland and one is in a different sport. I'd be nervous if that's what I was clinging to.

[Guest]

If England play as they do against Ireland, Wales have nil chance.

After wondering where you pulled the '7/10' metric as being decisive to deciding England's victory, it's now clear to see that numbers aren't really your strong point.

Try not to get stuck under the Severn Bridge if you are coming to see the game, Duty!

[Guest]

I'm more than happy for the English to think this will be a walk over.  Hopefully the players too.  Every time we play England we're written off, yet the win ratio is not far off 50%.  So wales might....might...... have a really small tincy wincy outside chance of a win.  Like 0.000000000001% chance.  But we've taken that 0.000000000001% in the past and won almost every other game.  So it can be done.  If a miracle happens

We know this is not a big game for England.  It never is.  But is is for Wales and always will be.  It doesn't have to work both ways.  We get that.  That's part of what fuels us.  We know we're just an insignificant speck lumped onto the side of England (geographically).  We know we're the poor relations.  Literally.  We know it's the upper classes vs the working classes.  The overlords vs the underlings.  And that's why it means nothing to you.  But it means the world to us!  It's like the game between the guards and the prisoners, or the mine owners vs the miners.  A chance to strike back against those who generally look down their noses at us.  THAT is why it is often closer than it should be on paper.  It gives the Welsh an extra 10-20% somehow.  Physically.  Psychologically.  The Welsh players will be all out for this one.  Even if the English are not

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