Brexit

by TRUSSMAN66 Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:02 pm

First topic message reminder :

Duty281 wrote:So a good day for the Prime Minister, at last. Motion carried and some pesky amendments defeated.

Yes folks a good day for the PM is telling the Country over 50 times in the Commons the UK is leaving on the 29th March and then winning an extension..

What a low bar..

by **superflyweight** Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:28 pm

Anyone see the Robert Peston interview with Boris Johnson where Johnson tried to bluff his way through his lack of knowledge and understanding of the single market? It was pathetic - it's not just his lack of knowledge it's the lack of ability to think things through that are really worrying.

It doesn't appear that there is anyone who backs hard Brexit that has a real handle on what it means in practice and the impact it would have. The alternative is that they are fully aware and they're lying and are all set to profit because they've backed against the British economy.

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:38 pm

No name Bertie wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:The Lib Dems were political destroyed because they stabbed their voters in the back following the 2010 General Election.

Similarly politically the Conservatives will be destroyed if they don't deliver some form of Brexit. It was the basis behind their 2015 General Election and their 2017 General Election. Politically they can't stab their voters in the back without being destroyed.

That is the political reality.

If exiting of the EU was so disastrous for Britain - the Conservatives should never have made the EU Referendum a central pledge in their 2015 General Election manifesto.

Politically it would be better for the Conservatives to have a no deal brexit than revoking A50.

What would be best for Britain, consistent with the various political promises and democracratic choices already made is some form of soft exit deal.
I’m happy you’re not pretending to just be down the middle like you really badly did to begin with.

None of this is fact. To be honest, I think the Lib Dem stuff has shown the power of the press as much as anything. Labour and the Tories have control of parts each, but the Lib Dems have nowt. They were easily shafted to be blamed over and over again, allowing the Tories a whipping boy for unpopular policies and Labour a way to take back the voters they lost to the LDs.

The young voters they did win didn’t automatically feel betrayed by them specifically, they just saw a time where their engagement felt worthless again. I was a student at the time and didn’t go on the marches when a lot of friends did, I don’t feel like tuition to uni should be free, but was also planning to vote Lib Dem if I voted (I then got too drunk during the day and couldn’t find my polling station)

The easy “Lib Dem betrayal” story has always annoyed me as it was so managed.

There are Tory voters who didn’t vote Brexit, that needs to be remembered too.
Do you accept as facts the number of MP seats and votes won at a general election?

General Election ... LibDem Seats ... Lib Dem Votes
2001 ........................ 46 .............. 4,814,321
2005 ........................ 52 .............. 5,985,454
2010 ........................ 62 .............. 6,836,824
2015 ........................ 08 .............. 2,415,916
2017 ........................ 08 .............. 2,371,910

I think my earlier comment was a fair assessment of the situation. Maybe the word "destroy" is an exaggeration - but it is the type of word others have used. So between 2010 and 2015 Lib Dems lost 4.4 million votes or to put it another way - they lost 2 out of every 3 voters that voted for them in 2010.

You've missed every point I've made. God love ya, Bertie, you're the same everywhere

by No name Bertie Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:38 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:
Dolphin Ziggler wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:The Lib Dems were political destroyed because they stabbed their voters in the back following the 2010 General Election.

Similarly politically the Conservatives will be destroyed if they don't deliver some form of Brexit. It was the basis behind their 2015 General Election and their 2017 General Election. Politically they can't stab their voters in the back without being destroyed.

That is the political reality.

If exiting of the EU was so disastrous for Britain - the Conservatives should never have made the EU Referendum a central pledge in their 2015 General Election manifesto.

Politically it would be better for the Conservatives to have a no deal brexit than revoking A50.

What would be best for Britain, consistent with the various political promises and democracratic choices already made is some form of soft exit deal.
I’m happy you’re not pretending to just be down the middle like you really badly did to begin with.

None of this is fact. To be honest, I think the Lib Dem stuff has shown the power of the press as much as anything. Labour and the Tories have control of parts each, but the Lib Dems have nowt. They were easily shafted to be blamed over and over again, allowing the Tories a whipping boy for unpopular policies and Labour a way to take back the voters they lost to the LDs.

The young voters they did win didn’t automatically feel betrayed by them specifically, they just saw a time where their engagement felt worthless again. I was a student at the time and didn’t go on the marches when a lot of friends did, I don’t feel like tuition to uni should be free, but was also planning to vote Lib Dem if I voted (I then got too drunk during the day and couldn’t find my polling station)

The easy “Lib Dem betrayal” story has always annoyed me as it was so managed.

There are Tory voters who didn’t vote Brexit, that needs to be remembered too.
Do you accept as facts the number of MP seats and votes won at a general election?

General Election ... LibDem Seats ... Lib Dem Votes
2001 ........................ 46 .............. 4,814,321
2005 ........................ 52 .............. 5,985,454
2010 ........................ 62 .............. 6,836,824
2015 ........................ 08 .............. 2,415,916
2017 ........................ 08 .............. 2,371,910

I think my earlier comment was a fair assessment of the situation. Maybe the word "destroy" is an exaggeration - but it is the type of word others have used. So between 2010 and 2015 Lib Dems lost 4.4 million votes or to put it another way - they lost 2 out of every 3 voters that voted for them in 2010.
You've missed every point I've made. God love ya, Bertie, you're the same everywhere

I assume you took some sort of arts course at University?

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:49 pm

Talks have broken down. Labour saying May won't budge on a customs union.

by Duty281 Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:42 pm

Apparently the French, backed by Spain and Belgium, aren't too keen on a lengthy article 50 extension. Could well mean a no-deal exit sometime this month - I guess we'll find out in five days.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/france-spain-and-belgium-ready-for-no-deal-brexit-next-week

by TRUSSMAN66 Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:13 pm

Ukip/Brexit Party 12%....On the latest YG poll..

Extension....Then Farage as Brexit Party leader could really cause problems for the front two...

Con 32
Lab 31....

Funny thing about these figures is that EC predicts the Tories lose 30 seats and Labour gain 2 on these percentages and the SNP clean up in Scotland again..

No surprise to see talks breaking down...Both sides have too much to lose..

by No name Bertie Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:32 am

In the UK GE of 2017 UKIP had 0 MPs and had 594,068 votes.

A resurgent UKIP would only damage the Conservative Party. I can't see many voters that voted for Corbyn's Labour in 2017 switching their vote to UKIP.

Those voters that voted for the Conservative Party in 2017 in the expectation that this Conservative Party would deliver Brexit - would either not vote or vote UKIP - if the Conservatives fail to deliver Brexit. Some would still vote Conservative for fear of a Corbyn's labour coming into power, but the net result would be a damaged Conservative Party.

Apparently the Conservative Party in 2017 promised those that would vote for them a Brexit whereby Britain would be free to negotiate trade deals with anyone outside of the EU.

That promise is the reason why Theresa May and the Conservative Party are refusing a customs union with the EU - because apparently the EU refuses to sanction a country joining its customs union without also demanding control of that country's trade deals with all other countries.

by CaledonianCraig Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:50 pm

Whether it is a Deal or No Deal Brexit is now out of the UK Government's hands I would say. The Tories are never going to make a compromise with Labour and France and Belgium are known not to be wanting to back a long extension. All it will take is for one country to veto a long extension within the EU and a No Deal Brexit it will be. I'd go as far as to say that a No Deal outcome has now become favourite and is getting warmer every day.

Personally, I am ambivalent about EU really. I see benefits for it and against it. As for the referendum on it - it was incompetently handled and presented by both sides. Those pushing for it never laid out the precise plan of what Brexit meant and certainly never gave a thought to the Irish border matter. Those pushing to remain were lack lustre and never put together a convincing case.

Lets be honest here if the UK are to leave then it should be clean and complete - all ties cut. It cannot and should not be leaving and then not being able to sign new trade deals etc - that would be utterly pointless and a waste of effort and opportunity.

As for Scotland well that is a whole new issue altogether as it voted in all of its constituencies to remain. Yes I know posters here will say it was a UK-wide vote but when you have a large body of Scots that see their country as Scotland (not the UK) then being dragged out of the EU against its wishes becomes a big issue. It will re-ignite the IndyRef flame but that may not be for a few months yet.

Post-Brexit with a No Deal will bring uncertainty. It will also bring opportunities to forge new business partners and trade deals but people like Trump will now offer a hard bargain as he'll know how desperate the UK will be for deals to replace the vast chasm left by collapsed EU deals. Interesting and worrying times lie ahead.

by No name Bertie Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:01 am

I agree that the united kingdom is a strange entity - a union of four countries. Whilst there is a strong union between England and Wales - the union with Scotland and Northern Ireland is less strong. So consideration should be given to Scotland and Northern Ireland above and beyond the simple proportion of votes. The way things are the UK could be heading out of the EU with a no deal come the end of Thursday in four days time.

It seems that the EC/EU had been willing to grant an extension of about 10 months or more but Theresa May seems to be keen to set a deadline of June - which I don't think is acceptable for the EC/EU - given the EU MEP elections of 23rd May.

by Samo Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:33 am

Extension granted until October 31st. Another referendum just became much more likely.

by **JuliusHMarx** Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:28 am

Exiting this Friday with no deal is no longer happening. Duty and JRM must be gutted.

by Duty281 Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:27 am

Yes, October 31st is the new deadline, unless European Elections aren't held, in which case it'll be June 1st. If the extension drags on past the summer, expect May to be removed as PM (although I grudgingly admire her ability to cling on when all seems lost).

If the European Elections are held, Ladbrokes seem to think it'll be between Labour (understandable, as I believe the opposition party has won every European Election with the exception of 2014) and the Brexit Party (Nigel is the defending champion) for who takes the most seats. Labour are 11/10, BP are 2/1.

by **Hero** Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:39 am

How's the Duty Swingometer on a No Deal now?

by Duty281 Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:50 am

Hero wrote:How's the Duty Swingometer on a No Deal now?

It's still the most likely scenario. As I've mentioned before, an extension does nothing except delay the inevitable. The question is still: deal or no deal?

I don't think there's going to be anything more than minor adjustments to May's deal over the next few weeks/months and, of course, this extension increases the possibility of May being removed before the end process is agreed upon and finalised, which (in turn) raises the prospect of a 'Brexiteer' being at the helm for the finale of the negotiations.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:20 pm

The question isn't deal or no deal. No deal is not the default when we can revoke Article 50. Parliament won't allow a no-deal Brexit.

by Duty281 Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:27 pm

A default is an automatic process as a result of a failure to do something. If nothing is done from now until the 31st October, we leave with no deal. Hence why it's a default. Now, some things can be done to ensure we don't leave by default - accepting a deal is one, revoking article 50 is another.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:28 pm

No deal won't happen, Duty. Parliament won't allow it. It's technically the default, but it's not happening.

by **Hero** Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:30 pm

A General Election in the coming months would be a big factor, currently parliament is still very much a Remain parliament, could see a lot of candidates in Brexit areas removing current MPs that are in conflict with the constituents. Then there's the independent factor, how will the electorate treat them, they're for the majority Remain, replace those with Brexiteers and that decision to keep kicking the can in hope it all goes away may be taken from us.

by Duty281 Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:37 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:No deal won't happen, Duty. Parliament won't allow it. It's technically the default, but it's not happening.

No technically about it; it is the default. You may think it's not happening, but it's presently the most likely scenario.

A revocation of article 50 is, almost certainly, not going to happen, as both major parties do not support it and have shown no willingness to move toward it over the past two and a half years. Hence why it's deal or no deal.

by **Hero** Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:49 pm

A default doesn't necessarily mean it's the most likely, if it was most likely then the bookies would be all over it and it's drifting. Think the general consensus is there's enough impetus towards a softer Brexit now and that at some point prior to October that'll get pushed through.
But as seen over the past two+ years these are crazy times, any scenario is still on the table.

by Duty281 Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:04 pm

I don't think no deal is the most likely entirely because it's the default option, though that is significant. It's also because May's deal is unlikely to pass, and she is likely to be replaced over the summer months. The new leader is most likely going to be a Brexiteer who will be more open to a 'no deal' scenario.

As for the other options: revoking article 50 isn't going to happen. Samo thinks another referendum is much more likely, but the chances of that are still remote, because it will take several months to get through the relevant legislation (and that's before you take into account Parliament isn't in support of this option/summer recess). A GE and a change of government is also very far-fetched (at this time) because no sane Tory would support it.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:No deal won't happen, Duty. Parliament won't allow it. It's technically the default, but it's not happening.

No technically about it; it is the default. You may think it's not happening, but it's presently the most likely scenario.

A revocation of article 50 is, almost certainly, not going to happen, as both major parties do not support it and have shown no willingness to move toward it over the past two and a half years.[/b] Hence why it's deal or no deal.

I think Parliament would revoke Article 50 before it approved leaving with No Deal.

There are enough sensible MPs in Parliament that they wouldn't allow us to crash out.

by No name Bertie Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:36 pm

Politically the Conservatives and Theresa May cannot revoke A50 and they haven't been close to revoking it. Yet many commentators on social media are absolutely adamant that Theresa May and the Conservatives absolutely have to revoke A50 - but I suspect these are people who would never vote for the conservatives and who are "hard core" remainers.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:58 pm

I just think that if we got to the day before leaving with no deal, there'd be a majority in Parliament in favour of revoking Article 50 instead, given those two options.

It shouldn't need saying that revoking Article 50 doesn't necessarily mean the end of Brexit forever - just the end of Brexit for the time being. It's sort of like cancelling a driving test because you know you'd be a danger on the road, and that you need a f*ckload more lessons.

by TRUSSMAN66 Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:18 pm

So Farage is back and his new Brexit Party has raised just under one million in 24 hours...

Never been a better time for a Trump like populist...

Polling in a few weeks could be interesting...

Wouldn't vote for these privileged bunch of posers but I fear that timing is everything in Politics.

Odds have already come in on The Brexit Party winning the Euro Elections..

If a deal isn't agreed next week of course.

Interesting times..

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:21 pm

One thing you have to say about Farage is that he's a hell of an opportunist, and he knows how to exploit a situation.

Apparently he said today, 'of course there will be questions about broader issues of policy, and we'll come to that in time'. But naturally that can wait. The main thing is to seize the moment. He knows that people will vote for them even if they don't come up with a manifesto that stretches beyond Brexit.

2016 is a lesson that all you need is slogans, a scapegoat or two, and to convince people that there's a simple solution to all the ills in society. The less detail the better.

His attendance record as an MEP? Doesn't matter. Tell people what they want to hear, and they'll be putty in your hands.

by Duty281 Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:25 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:2016 is a lesson that all you need is slogans, a scapegoat or two, and to convince people that there's a simple solution to all the ills in society. The less detail the better.

Welcome to 21st century politics, from all parts of the political spectrum.

by Duty281 Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:29 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:So Farage is back and his new Brexit Party has raised just under one million in 24 hours...

Never been a better time for a Trump like populist...

Polling in a few weeks could be interesting...

Wouldn't vote for these privileged bunch of posers but I fear that timing is everything in Politics.

Odds have already come in on The Brexit Party winning the Euro Elections..

If a deal isn't agreed next week of course.

Interesting times..

Difficult to see the Brexit Party winning, as Leave supporters also have the option of UKIP, which is a more established choice. 2nd place? Most probably. The Tories are going to get hammered.

It'll be more interesting to see how Labour do - they should win it. But, at the same time, it's difficult to see Labour attracting the vote of firm supporters of both Remain and Leave.

by GSC Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:33 pm

Yet another party that will do a better job of putting pressure on an inept government than the actual opposition

by Samo Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:26 pm

You've got to despair at Farage saying he'll stand up against 'career politicians' despite being a founding member of UKIP in 93, and being an elected MEP for 20 years, and the muppets with sh*t for brains lap it all up. Demagoguery at its absolute finest.

by TRUSSMAN66 Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:33 pm

GSC wrote:Yet another party that will do a better job of putting pressure on an inept government than the actual opposition

The opposition that is in Downing Street with 7 pollsters out of 8..

Labour have sat on the fence....The Lib Dems have gone on all in on remain as have the Greens..

They have 11% between them..

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:33 pm

Also, putting Rees-Mogg's sister up as a candidate and saying it's striking a blow against the establishment. Jesus wept.

by TRUSSMAN66 Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:30 pm

Hard left Labour can't introduce a radical agenda while stuck in an in/out Europe.....Disillusioned Hard right people that see a name like Mogg in this new Party will be attracted...

Be surprised if this new Party isn't a big player..

by No name Bertie Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:42 pm

As far as I know Farage is not a "career politician" - he is more like a "conviction politician" or just a lobbyist. He is someone who wants Britain to be "independent" - in the sense of sovereignty, being free to makes its own trade deals, control its own borders etc - for better or worse.

This new "party" - the Brexit Party - is just another single agenda party / lobbyist group - that will disappear if and when Britain is no longer formerly a part of the EU.

I think Labour will hold its votes - those that voted for labour in the past especially the recent past (2017 General Election - Corbyn's labour) will continue to vote for (Corbyns) Labour.

It is the Conservative vote that will be reduced. Basically the EU Referendum, the In / Out choice and Brexit formed the core of the Conservative Party Manifesto in the recent 2015 and 2017 UK General Elections. It is the COnservatives that have so far failed to deliver.

Labour just have to hold tight and they will likely win the next General Election if the General Election is called early - especially given the next generation of voters have to some extent been indoctrinated by lefties that now dominate the school and university systems (at least at the teacher / lecturer / professor level).

The SNP will likely again sweep Scotland and likely get an opportunity for a second Scottish Independence referendum - and this time they might win. If at that time Corbyn is the Prime Minister of the UK it will be interesting to see whether he would at least secretly support the break up of the United Kingdom. I think Corbyn would be very happy to see a "united Ireland" as well as an end to the British Monarchy.

With regard the "Brexit Party" I think its main focus is to cause "trouble" for the Conservatives - in now trying to ensure Brexit occurs. Its focus will be on the MEP elections - where there will be plenty of opportunity for air time on national media to get their message across - and to try to cause havoc in the EU Parliament if they get MEPs elected and Britain is still in the EU come 30th June - the first day of the new EU Parliament.

Anyway this is how I see it - and I see myself as more or less apolitical.

by **Pr4wn** Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:09 am

Nigel Farage. The turd that just won't flush.

by TRUSSMAN66 Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:36 am

Yougov....EU Election intention..

Lab....24%
Con....16%
Brex...15%
UKIP...14%

I imagine now the Brexit Party has been properly launched we will see some UKIP transfers....

Think they will take the Euros but can they transition into a big player on the domestic front....

by TRUSSMAN66 Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:40 am

No name Bertie wrote:As far as I know Farage is not a "career politician" - he is more like a "conviction politician" or just a lobbyist. He is someone who wants Britain to be "independent" - in the sense of sovereignty, being free to makes its own trade deals, control its own borders etc - for better or worse.

This new "party" - the Brexit Party - is just another single agenda party / lobbyist group - that will disappear if and when Britain is no longer formerly a part of the EU.

I think Labour will hold its votes - those that voted for labour in the past especially the recent past (2017 General Election - Corbyn's labour) will continue to vote for (Corbyns) Labour.

It is the Conservative vote that will be reduced. Basically the EU Referendum, the In / Out choice and Brexit formed the core of the Conservative Party Manifesto in the recent 2015 and 2017 UK General Elections. It is the COnservatives that have so far failed to deliver.

Labour just have to hold tight and they will likely win the next General Election if the General Election is called early - especially given the next generation of voters have to some extent been indoctrinated by lefties that now dominate the school and university systems (at least at the teacher / lecturer / professor level).

The SNP will likely again sweep Scotland and likely get an opportunity for a second Scottish Independence referendum - and this time they might win. If at that time Corbyn is the Prime Minister of the UK it will be interesting to see whether he would at least secretly support the break up of the United Kingdom. I think Corbyn would be very happy to see a "united Ireland" as well as an end to the British Monarchy.

With regard the "Brexit Party" I think its main focus is to cause "trouble" for the Conservatives - in now trying to ensure Brexit occurs. Its focus will be on the MEP elections - where there will be plenty of opportunity for air time on national media to get their message across - and to try to cause havoc in the EU Parliament if they get MEPs elected and Britain is still in the EU come 30th June - the first day of the new EU Parliament.

Anyway this is how I see it - and I see myself as more or less apolitical.

I think the Tory vote will hold up while Corbyn is there....Hugely polarising..

But good analysis....Don't think anyone knows what will happen..All peeing In the dark..

by Duty281 Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:57 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Yougov....EU Election intention..

Lab....24%
Con....16%
Brex...15%
UKIP...14%

Very low starting point for Labour and Tory. Despite the split with UKIP, the Brexit Party could actually win the European Election, when the campaigning begins properly - that would make it the third national election in a row to signal clear support for getting out of the EU.

by Samo Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:02 am

Farage could barely get 100 people on his march yet his Brexit Party have managed to raise over £750k in donations before their official website launched. In donations of £500 no less. The £500 part is significnt because its the minimum donation a party can receive that is not covered under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (PPERA). They dont need to be declared or queried, the party can just accept the money.

Now it gets interesting, because these donations are made exclusively through Paypal - which conceals the donaters identity - and the maximum you can donate through their website is, you guessed it, £500. This could all be probed by law but its harder if you dont have the jurisdiction, probably why the Brexit Party website server is located in Michigan.

Its also impressive to see a party who’s website was incomplete as late as the 5th of April and has only been getting publicity for less than a week get more donations in a comparable time than Labour supporting machine Momentum.

This could all be innocent of course, but it wouldnt be the first case of donater fraud hiding in plain sight. This whole situation stinks to high heaven.

by Duty281 Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:28 am

The Brexit Party has around 40,000 'registered supporters', all of whom have paid at least £25 for the privilege.

The party also asked for £100 from potential MEP candidates, of which I'm led to believe there were a few hundred (though I'm unsure if that counts as a donation).

by No name Bertie Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:11 pm

What Brexit has revealed is how easy it is to polarise the British public. In another era and setting it would be very easy to create civil war - like you got elsewhere in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia. Also generation Z = screen generation - the generation of people that have grown up with a social media screen in front of them are especially mouldable. Look how easy it has been to demonise individuals like Farage and Donald Trump. There are people trapped in social media echo chambers who don't live in the US spending their lives talking about Donald Trump who for them is a figure of hate, akin to a Hitler, a Stalin and Satan himself.

by **JuliusHMarx** Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:19 pm

Farage and Trump are doing a lot of the moulding of the especially mouldable.

by Samo Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:47 pm

No name Bertie wrote:What Brexit has revealed is how easy it is to polarise the British public. In another era and setting it would be very easy to create civil war - like you got elsewhere in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia. Also generation Z = screen generation - the generation of people that have grown up with a social media screen in front of them are especially mouldable. Look how easy it has been to demonise individuals like ~~Farage~~ Corbyn and ~~Donald Trump~~ Barack Obama. There are people trapped in social media echo chambers who don't live in the US spending their lives talking about ~~Donald Trump~~ Barack Obama who for them is a figure of hate, akin to a Hitler, a Stalin and Satan himself.

by No name Bertie Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:47 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:Farage and Trump are doing a lot of the moulding of the especially mouldable.

Of course. Absolutely. But how do you know what you know? When someone says look over there - do you look? But what about over there - where no-one is telling you to look? What is news and what is not news? What is important and what is not important - who gets to decide? You think you are thinking for yourself - but how do you know you have not been the victim of auto-suggestion? How can this "news" story be reported differently? What effect does it have on the viewer? Anyway - I'm done with this. Let's try to focus on relevant facts and relevant process.

by No name Bertie Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:51 pm

Samo wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:What Brexit has revealed is how easy it is to polarise the British public. In another era and setting it would be very easy to create civil war - like you got elsewhere in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia. Also generation Z = screen generation - the generation of people that have grown up with a social media screen in front of them are especially mouldable. Look how easy it has been to demonise individuals like ~~Farage~~ Corbyn and ~~Donald Trump~~ Barack Obama. There are people trapped in social media echo chambers who don't live in the US spending their lives talking about ~~Donald Trump~~ Barack Obama who for them is a figure of hate, akin to a Hitler, a Stalin and Satan himself.

That is right - you have to treat both Corbyn and Obama as normal people. I never understood the demonisation of Obama. With Corbyn you don't have to demonise him to know his political history.

by **JuliusHMarx** Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:10 pm

No name Bertie wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Farage and Trump are doing a lot of the moulding of the especially mouldable.
Of course. Absolutely. But how do you know what you know? When someone says look over there - do you look? But what about over there - where no-one is telling you to look? What is news and what is not news? What is important and what is not important - who gets to decide? You think you are thinking for yourself - but how do you know you have not been the victim of auto-suggestion? How can this "news" story be reported differently? What effect does it have on the viewer? Anyway - I'm done with this. Let's try to focus on relevant facts and relevant process.

Exactly. If Brexit happens and no-one is there to hear it, is it actually the sound of one Mogg clapping?

by **Dolphin Ziggler** Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:22 am

Old man blames younger generation

by Beer Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:03 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Old man blames younger generation

He'll be yelling at a cloud next.

by Duty281 Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:51 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Yougov....EU Election intention..

Lab....24%
Con....16%
Brex...15%
UKIP...14%

Very low starting point for Labour and Tory. Despite the split with UKIP, the Brexit Party could actually win the European Election, when the campaigning begins properly - that would make it the third national election in a row to signal clear support for getting out of the EU.

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

Brexit Party now odds-on favourites to win the European Elections with Ladbrokes (8/11).

by TRUSSMAN66 Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:56 pm

Certainly a Heavyweight politician Farage I will give him that.

Next GE Poll with The Brexit Party in might be interesting.

This new Centrist Party ChangeUK still not really taking off..

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