Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Soft thread split, hard thread split, no-deal thread split. Who gives a sh!t as long as we get a thread split by the 15:35 deadline.

It Must Be Love wrote:

Afro wrote:In my defence, I ultimately said that I felt abolishing private schools was a step too far. I think the focus should be on improving the standard of all state schools is on a par with the private sector. Parents still have a choice but having money doesn’t entitle you to a better education.

I’m sure it’s not achievable for all schools but it is a bar to aim for.

And I would fund by taxing private schools, and removing their charitable status.

Yeah those are fair points.

Labour's move to the authoritarian far left is chilling. Despite poor polling, Corbyn could easily end up as PM, all he needs is 280 seats and he'll have a coalition with the SNP, who won't moderate him.

It really is absurd that they could and should be wiping the floor with the Boris-led Tories just by looking moderate and competent, and yet the Trots have taken over and their big headline policies are to abolish Private schools (Class War politics at its finest) and the pie in the sky 32 hours working week with no drop in wages (tell Tesco how they can staff their shop for the same cost when each member of staff is working a day less a week). And yet they can't produce a coherent Brexit policy, or at least one that takes less than 15 minutes to explain...

Corbyn and Momentum seem to be re-fighting the battles that were lost in the 80s...

A 32 hour working week doesnt automatically mean a 4 day working week.

The biggest public sent employees are NHS workers.
Doctors and nurses currently work around 60 hours a week. If Labour reduced the number of hours to 32 hours but promised same income, they would have to double the number of staff in the NHS, double the cost too.
This would most certainly bankrupt the NHS. No doubt Labour would then try and rescue the NHS with tax rates of 75%+ for the rich. But at that point wealthy people and businesses, who can afford to relocate, would leave. With the NHS bankrupt and economy in ruins, maybe they'd then start seizing private property to keep UK solvent?

dummy_half wrote:

It really is absurd that they could and should be wiping the floor with the Boris-led Tories just by looking moderate and competent, and yet the Trots have taken over and their big headline policies are to abolish Private schools (Class War politics at its finest) and the pie in the sky 32 hours working week with no drop in wages (tell Tesco how they can staff their shop for the same cost when each member of staff is working a day less a week). And yet they can't produce a coherent Brexit policy, or at least one that takes less than 15 minutes to explain...

Corbyn and Momentum seem to be re-fighting the battles that were lost in the 80s...

I fear for the country, and it's remarkable to observe how we've got here. I normally hate it when people are hysterical about future prospects, but for once it's completely valid.
On the one hand we could have Boris taking us out with No Deal (probably Jan 2020), which would cause serious short and long term economic damage. There's a reason no Brexiter talked about a WTO exit during the ref, because they knew that objective analysis was accurate and not 'Project Fear'.
Meanwhile Corbyn, if Labour get 280 seats in GE, could be propped up by the equally left wing SNP and wreck the UK economy with authoritarian policies. It's true private schools confer an advantage, but Corbyn attended one and got 2Es in A levels, and I doubt any of them were in economics.

So what's the way out? Perhaps Labour minority but moderated by Lib Dems on domestic policy? Would Libs even have a spine to vote down populist but economically illiterate legislation? Also, I think that a 2nd ref with soft brexit vs remain would be toxic, and Leave voters would legitimately say they've been stitched up. I'd predict unpleasant forces make a come back in UK politics for quite a while.

So perhaps the best outcome after next GE is Tory minority government, but one relying on moderate independents such as Rory Stewart and Nick Boles to get anything passed? Boris, with 20 Labour Leave votes cancelling the ERG, could get through May's Deal. On domestic economic policy Boris is actually quite centrist, not ideologically wedded to austerity like Osborne.

The UK is walking a tightrope, fall to the right or fall to the left, we all plunge.

The thing is Independents like Stewart and Boles won't be getting elected at the next election, the former is in just about the most nailed on Tory constituency that there is and the latter is Grantham which is about as Tory as it gets. The withdrawal of the party whip from the rebels wasn't at all random, they were all MPs of incredibly safe seats going forward, the problem is people like Rudd who surrendered the whip.

The next election will be a choice between Brexit worries or Labour worries.

dummy_half wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

Afro wrote:In my defence, I ultimately said that I felt abolishing private schools was a step too far. I think the focus should be on improving the standard of all state schools is on a par with the private sector. Parents still have a choice but having money doesn’t entitle you to a better education.

I’m sure it’s not achievable for all schools but it is a bar to aim for.

And I would fund by taxing private schools, and removing their charitable status.

Yeah those are fair points.

Labour's move to the authoritarian far left is chilling. Despite poor polling, Corbyn could easily end up as PM, all he needs is 280 seats and he'll have a coalition with the SNP, who won't moderate him.

It really is absurd that they could and should be wiping the floor with the Boris-led Tories just by looking moderate and competent, and yet the Trots have taken over and their big headline policies are to abolish Private schools (Class War politics at its finest) and the pie in the sky 32 hours working week with no drop in wages (tell Tesco how they can staff their shop for the same cost when each member of staff is working a day less a week). And yet they can't produce a coherent Brexit policy, or at least one that takes less than 15 minutes to explain...

Corbyn and Momentum seem to be re-fighting the battles that were lost in the 80s...

The optics have changed back to 2010...

When the Lib Dems got 23% and Labour got 27% under Brown and Con was on 34...

Lib Dems are eating into the Labour vote again and the Tories are eating into Farage..

We are in Brexit defined territory....No other subjects like Health..Education..Poverty are getting a look in..

Should Labour be well ahead maybe...But these aren't normal times.

So prorogation is justiciable, so first point of discussion lost by the government.

And decision to prorogue then deemed unlawful

Another nail in Johnsons coffin. On top of the “personal friend” scandal parliament are going to rip him to bits.

Unanimous 11-0 decision with no further appeal

So what are the consequences of that decision. The Commons ripping him apart is not going to make much difference, it will just wash over him like water off a ducks back

Afro wrote:So what are the consequences of that decision. The Commons ripping him apart is not going to make much difference, it will just wash over him like water off a ducks back

That is my view as well. I see BJ issuing a thinly-veiled pop at the Supreme Court and saying it is business as usual.

He SHOULD resign, however he’s a stubborn b*****d. So there should probably be a vote of no confidence. He’s pissed off that many of his own MP’s its unlikely he’d win.

It would all depend on who would take interim charge until a GE Is called.

It's going to be one helluva an Election when it eventually comes.

Biblical.

The cult of leave probably won't even blink

I'll make a prediction - Johnson and Cabinet will get rid of Cummings later today as a scapegoat to try and take the heat off Johnson who will attempt to brazen it out.

It says a heck of a lot for options out there though that for all their utter lies, incompetence, contempt of parliament, messing up Brexit and loathsome characters that the Tories will probably still end up with most seats at the next election (across the UK that is but certainly not in Scotland).

BamBam wrote:The cult of leave probably won't even blink

The amount of people I’ve seen on social media claiming its a “remainer stitch up” is depressing. Its almost impressive. L. Ron Hubbard took decades to craft a religion out of his cowpat. The Leave side managed in just 4 years.

Samo wrote:

The amount of people I’ve seen on social media claiming its a “remainer stitch up” is depressing.

You're not wrong.

A lot predicted chaos as a consequence of voting leave due to the extent that we were voting for the unknown, and it was brushed off as Project Fear. And now it is happening, its the Remainers fault apparently.

The result was we voted Leave, now accept the consequences of that vote because you didn't want to hear what the experts were telling you. You can't cherry pick only the consequences you like.

MrInvisible wrote:I'll make a prediction - Johnson and Cabinet will get rid of Cummings later today as a scapegoat to try and take the heat off Johnson who will attempt to brazen it out.

I wouldn't be surprised if that happened, although it will have the silver lining that it will get Cummings out of the picture. He is a horrible, megalomaniac man, who is trying to run the country himself through his puppet Johnson

Very damning....Lady Grey went so far as to insinuate he lied to the Queen..

Hard to see how in anything other than a Banana Republic he stays in place...

The argument that the court decision is a remainer conspiracy is self defeating, as if prorogation IS to do with brexit, that means Boris lies to the queen, thus proving the Supreme Court right.

Just imagine if we'd had chaos with Ed Miliband though!

Samo wrote:He SHOULD resign, however he’s a stubborn b*****d. So there should probably be a vote of no confidence. He’s pissed off that many of his own MP’s its unlikely he’d win.

It would all depend on who would take interim charge until a GE Is called.

It would have to be Harman or Clarke you would think.

Soul Requiem wrote:The thing is Independents like Stewart and Boles won't be getting elected at the next election, the former is in just about the most nailed on Tory constituency that there is and the latter is Grantham which is about as Tory as it gets. The withdrawal of the party whip from the rebels wasn't at all random, they were all MPs of incredibly safe seats going forward, the problem is people like Rudd who surrendered the whip.

The next election will be a choice between Brexit worries or Labour worries.

Rules change and nothing is certain anymore. Stewart in particular is high profile in public and in his constituency and there is no guarantee that an alternative Conservative would get in ahead of him.

We are also getting close to the point where Lib Dems can be considered a viable alternative. If (and yes that is still a big IF) we get to the point when people stop thinking its a choice between Cons/ Labour or a protest vote the political landscape could change very quickly. I would not be at all surprised if there were more defections to them in the near future, given what an utter CF the Labour party is.

BamBam wrote:Just imagine if we'd had chaos with Ed Miliband though!

He changed his twitter handle to that for a while

Won't be Harman...

Corbyn won't want someone who is a threat...Besides another Labour MP would undermine his status..

Be Beckett though if it is Labour....She is ancient and no threat to the succession.

Most probably be a senior Tory though if it happens.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Very damning....Lady Grey went so far as to insinuate he lied to the Queen..

Hard to see how in anything other than a Banana Republic he stays in place...

It's a pity she wasn't more explicit, because that's exactly what he did, and he knows damned well it was. Only the 'political' niceties prevent MPs being called out as liars more often.

Be interesting what happens next; he could easily just prorogue again on Parliament's return I reckon. Depends how brazen he is and what he really wants - if it's no-deal followed by GE, I wouldn't be surprised if he effectively tells the Supreme Court to go hang until we're out.

Beckett is another option, the thinking behind Clarke was that as the father of the house it isn't an arbitrary choice.

lostinwales wrote:...We are also getting close to the point where Lib Dems can be considered a viable alternative. If (and yes that is still a big IF) we get to the point when people stop thinking its a choice between Cons/ Labour or a protest vote the political landscape could change very quickly. I would not be at all surprised if there were more defections to them in the near future, given what an utter CF the Labour party is.

Interesting, eh? Have they played a quiet blinder here? I certainly don't think they'd consider another coalition as a minority partner without very explicit, upfront guaratees.

I think it's clear for all to see that we now need a national government.

Lib Dems would probably be supply and demand arrangement with agreement that remain would be on a 2nd ref

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Won't be Harman...

Corbyn won't want someone who is a threat...Besides another Labour MP would undermine his status..

Be Beckett though if it is Labour....She is ancient and no threat  to the succession.

Most probably be a senior Tory though if it happens.

Can see the issue, but if they don't trust the Speaker to be independent, what's the point? May as well get someone off the street, or preferably an English-speaking foreigner who has no vested interest in our political system or country.

GSC wrote:Lib Dems would probably be supply and demand arrangement with agreement that remain would be on a 2nd ref

Yeah its going to be a while before any party can build a majority in parliament.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Very damning....Lady Grey went so far as to insinuate he lied to the Queen..

Hard to see how in anything other than a Banana Republic he stays in place...

It's a pity she wasn't more explicit, because that's exactly what he did, and he knows damned well it was. Only the 'political' niceties prevent MPs being called out as liars more often.

Be interesting what happens next; he could easily just prorogue again on Parliament's return I reckon. Depends how brazen he is and what he really wants - if it's no-deal followed by GE, I wouldn't be surprised if he effectively tells the Supreme Court to go hang until we're out.

But now that the Supreme Court has ruled that it was unlawful, any further attempt to prorogue (other than in the usual procedural way that Johnson pretended (and people like Duty bought) that he was employing would be quickly deemed to be unlawful by the court of first instance with no grounds for appeal.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Won't be Harman...

Corbyn won't want someone who is a threat...Besides another Labour MP would undermine his status..

Be Beckett though if it is Labour....She is ancient and no threat  to the succession.

Most probably be a senior Tory though if it happens.

Can see the issue, but if they don't trust the Speaker to be independent, what's the point? May as well get someone off the street, or preferably an English-speaking foreigner who has no vested interest in our political system or country.

The glorious revolution. It has been done before. If you add in the Hanoverians you might argue more than once.

superflyweight wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Very damning....Lady Grey went so far as to insinuate he lied to the Queen..

Hard to see how in anything other than a Banana Republic he stays in place...

It's a pity she wasn't more explicit, because that's exactly what he did, and he knows damned well it was. Only the 'political' niceties prevent MPs being called out as liars more often.

Be interesting what happens next; he could easily just prorogue again on Parliament's return I reckon. Depends how brazen he is and what he really wants - if it's no-deal followed by GE, I wouldn't be surprised if he effectively tells the Supreme Court to go hang until we're out.

But now that the Supreme Court has ruled that it was unlawful, any further attempt to prorogue (other than in the usual procedural way that Johnson pretended (and people like Duty bought) that he was employing would be quickly deemed to be unlawful by the court of first instance with no grounds for appeal.  

Oh, agreed. More time wasted though; how quick would it take a Court to decide that way? Maybe quicker than I think I guess so perhaps that option's effectively a non-runner for the PM.

lostinwales wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Won't be Harman...

Corbyn won't want someone who is a threat...Besides another Labour MP would undermine his status..

Be Beckett though if it is Labour....She is ancient and no threat  to the succession.

Most probably be a senior Tory though if it happens.

Can see the issue, but if they don't trust the Speaker to be independent, what's the point? May as well get someone off the street, or preferably an English-speaking foreigner who has no vested interest in our political system or country.

The glorious revolution. It has been done before. If you add in the Hanoverians you might argue more than once.

French friend of mine always said that occasionally you have to guillotine some heads as it keeps the politicians etc honest...

What odds on May's deal being put before Commons again I wonder?

Big fan of this guy's well articulated and considered views

https://twitter.com/sachinnakrani/status/1176452319472508928?s=21

Dame Gina Miller anyone? What's she's done certainly worthy of some award I reckon.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:He SHOULD resign, however he’s a stubborn b*****d. So there should probably be a vote of no confidence. He’s pissed off that many of his own MP’s its unlikely he’d win.

It would all depend on who would take interim charge until a GE Is called.

It would have to be Harman or Clarke you would think.

Theres always the possibility of a Government of Unity lead by both of them. Would only be temporary and long enough to organize a GE.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:He SHOULD resign, however he’s a stubborn b*****d. So there should probably be a vote of no confidence. He’s pissed off that many of his own MP’s its unlikely he’d win.

It would all depend on who would take interim charge until a GE Is called.

It would have to be Harman or Clarke you would think.

Theres always the possibility of a Government of Unity lead by both of them.  Would only be temporary and long enough to organize a GE.

I think that's what the Lib Dems are going to push for, it's a balancing act of perception going forward into a general election.

Oct 31st is a big problem for Johnson...I can't see the UK not having an extension and with the Brexit Party ready to crap all over the Govt if that happens..

Thinking Johnson's best bet is to try to manufacture a vote of VONC and blame someone else......He really is in a spot..

more interested in the short term in who takes the fall for this.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Oct 31st is a big problem for Johnson...I can't see the UK not having an extension and with the Brexit Party ready to crap all over the Govt if that happens..

Thinking Johnson's best bet is to try to manufacture a vote of VONC and blame someone else......He really is in a spot..

I don't see the Brexit party doing that come election time if I'm honest, their only chance of seeing Brexit through is with Johnson as PM.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Oct 31st is a big problem for Johnson...I can't see the UK not having an extension and with the Brexit Party ready to crap all over the Govt if that happens..

Thinking Johnson's best bet is to try to manufacture a vote of VONC and blame someone else......He really is in a spot..

If they table a VONC, is there a limit to when they can call another VONC is it is unsuccessful? I know there is on a VONC from the MPs to their own leader, but not sure about a VONC from parliament towards the government

Afro wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Oct 31st is a big problem for Johnson...I can't see the UK not having an extension and with the Brexit Party ready to crap all over the Govt if that happens..

Thinking Johnson's best bet is to try to manufacture a vote of VONC and blame someone else......He really is in a spot..

If they table a VONC, is there a limit to when they can call another VONC is it is unsuccessful? I know there is on a VONC from the MPs to their own leader, but not sure about a VONC from parliament towards the government

You could it again the very next day if you so wished.

wouldnt it fall under the same thing as when May's 2nd attempt to get a vote for her deal failed. You cant keep bringing the exact same deal

The question was prompted by my thinking, what if BoJo or his cronies table their own motion of no-confidence.

Could it leave the rest of the Commons with the quandary of supporting and the election period overlapping 31st October or opposing and not being able to bring the same motion again until the next parliamentary session