World Rankings - things just got interesting

First topic message reminder :

With the World Cup still a few weeks away, it's nice to try and apply some context to the week's matches.

When the official rankings come out on Monday, New Zealand will be top with 89.04, Wales will be second with 88.89 then Ireland (88.69), England (87.34), South Africa (86.83) and Australia (84.41).

Ireland don't play next week and South Africa play Argentina at home next week. Argentina are ranked so low now that a win would not allow South Africa up the rankings, and they can only lose points if they fail to win. The other two games of note are NZ at home to Australia and Wales at home to England.

There's a miniscule gap between NZ and Wales, and as Wales are playing a higher ranked team, any Wales win will see them officially ranked number 1 in the published rankings. Conversely if England beat Wales by 16+ points, England will be ranked number 1. Both these outcomes exist outside of NZ's sphere of influence.

If NZ beat Australia they'll be on 89.28 points. If they thrash Australia, they'll be on 89.40 points.

A Wales win would take them up to 89.43 points and a thrashing of England would take them to 89.71. Either of these would be more than NZ could muster against Australia.

An England win would see England up to 88.79, which is less than NZ after any kiwi win. However, an England thrashing of Wales would see them up to 89.52, and therefore above anything NZ could achieve.

England could also top the rankings with any win, if NZ fail to win against Australia. A draw against Australia would see NZ drop to 88.28 points and a loss would see them fall further. A narrow England win and an NZ draw or loss would see England top the rankings therefore.

The eagle-eyed amongst you might have noticed that "NZ fail to win - 88.28" would see NZ drop below Ireland, who would therefore rise to second. Ireland could even top the rankings if Wales and England then drew, as England would take enough points from Wales to drag them below Ireland but not enough to themselves get above Ireland.

If NZ lose at home to Australia, they would drop to third with a Wales win or 4th with a draw or an England win. If they suffered a second successive thrashing, they'd fall to 6th below Australia and South Africa. You can file that last scenario in "unlikely", but that would probably be their worst ever position.

Below the top 6 you've got Scotland and France in 7th and 8th. The winner of their game will be ranked higher at the end of the week, although neither can catch the top 6 or drop below those below them.

Old Man wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Any updates on Ezebeth?

From what I have been told by someone close to the camp, it is nothing to worry about.

So in ten minutes you’ve gone from not knowing who bolting is, to inside knowledge about why he ‘left’.

My, that is progress.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Old Man wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:Given ‘form’? Ireland’s form has been appalling and they are the #1 ranked team. Guns, enjoy the hype train buddy.

I didnt mention Irelands form.

Rassie has a 58% win rate with SA and all the hype is around him. Ireland have a higher win rate this year alone and its considered a dip. Im happy with the position we are in because there is no hype.

perhapsyou should apply the same measure to both teams.

THIS YEAR Rassie have not lost a match.

Yeah and he has played 4 games this year vs Irelands 9.

That pretty much sums up why 6N teams are even in the #1 discussion

Think you may have read that one wrong Tman. I asked if he knew if Eben Ezebeth was getting in trouble

Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

A lot of teams would be in that boat. Take Murray or Sexton out, then what? That’s a frightening prospect for the #1 team.

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

A lot of teams would be in that boat. Take Murray or Sexton out, then what? That’s a frightening prospect for the #1 team.

Really? Ireland beat New Zealand without Murray and they beat Wales without Murray and Sexton. 1 and 2 in the world at the time. They have in the past also won in SA without Sexton.

Yes most teams suffer without their first 10 it just seems like SA dont have a back up plan for the 10 position unlike most teams.

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:In my view SA are a Handre Pollard injury from it all unraveling given they have gone to Japan without playing a back up 10 on the bench in their recent games.

A lot of teams would be in that boat. Take Murray or Sexton out, then what? That’s a frightening prospect for the #1 team.

Jjantes played the full match versus Argie didnt her? What you on about. He's had a lot more experience than most back up 10's , difference being, as I kpt saying a million times, this is world cup year, different beast, and already the cracks are showing in the Welsh and Irish teams that werent there last year....and theyve only played eachother!

Argie 2015 is Irelands last result that counts this round. The rest is prep. Boks are 100% in world cup year, Ireland havent looked convincing in a single test yet in 2019 and you're still throwing last years results in as if they mean anything?

Wake up man. Told you last year SA would be stronger this year but nope, no ears.

That was a B team game. I dont think Janjties made the bench for any of the RC games nor the last test v Japan. He doesnt seem to be in the picture.

Again you are taking about the Argentina v Ireland game in 2015. Have you watched any rugby since '15? Its like you have no other reference point. Different squad, different management team.

I think Rassie Erasmus is planning to use Jantjies for the pool matches other than the first pool match and Frans Steyn as backup 10 for the big matches

Old Man wrote:I think Rassie Erasmus is planning to use Jantjies for the pool matches other than the first pool match and Frans Steyn as backup 10 for the big matches

Looks that way alright. Its almost as if Tman doesnt follow SH rugby.

Guns, are you worried about your lineout? Looked a bit shaky.

ebop wrote:Guns, are you worried about your lineout? Looked a bit shaky.

Yes and no. It is creaking alright but the plan seems to be to sacrifice some lineout prowess for a stronger scrum which seems to be working as its in rude health.

The lineout is also improving with each game. Ryan was making the calls v Wales which to my knowledge he hasnt done before so was good to see them turn it around after a shaky start.

Was Toner dropped for Jean Kleyn?

Old Man wrote:Was Toner dropped for Jean Kleyn?

Yes, its an odd one.

I reckon Toner. must be miffed

Collapse2005 wrote:That was a B team game. I dont think Janjties made the bench for any of the RC games nor the last test v Japan. He doesnt seem to be in the picture.

Again you are taking about the Argentina v Ireland game in 2015. Have you watched any rugby since '15? Its like you have no other reference point. Different squad, different management team.

Hmmm, if true...and thats been the case since 1987, not sure what the point is though. You do know though that both Ireland and Wales still have their two losing coaches from 2015? England don't. SA don't. NZ do, for understandable reasons.

THIS time its different in world cup year? The only noticeable thing thats happened is SH sides have been more heavily depleted than ever so they can't win the level of satellite matches (i.e. the AI's that they used to). You might count the SA win in Chicago and Dublin higher than the SA win and draw here, but most wouldnt.

Other than that nothings changed in the NH. they still can't work out who the better side is, Wales and Ireland both still have the same losing coaches and many of the players of 2015, your supposed best players are either the ageing Sexton, or the even more ageing AWJ- pretty sure their world cup efforts from the past will be needed this round, and all this series showed was the cracks are starting to show. You have 'stars' coming out due to the AI wins but overall, I don't see any Carters or Lomu's amongst them, the calibre one usually needs to get to no. 1.

England though, are different. New coach, finally a fully fit side, and far more threats across the park than any other NH side. Theyve learned an awful lot since 2015. Timing in World cup year one of them.

Sometimes keeping on a coach that has lost a RWC quarter is the right move though isnt it Taylorman?

Id like to see England do well and agree they have great players but and I say this as a fan I suggest you dont read so much into the Twickers hammering of Ireland because if England do they are setting themselves up for a fall. They wont (I hope). Dont forget they did not win the six nations this year nor last year because they can blow hot and cold.

Old Man wrote:I reckon Toner. must be miffed

Good chance he will end out there at some point anyway. POC for example was injured for the 2015 quarter and Mike McCarthy was flown in.

I would be very interested to know who the new zealand public and press think are the biggest threats this year to the all blacks crown. What do you think ebop and tman?

Yoda wrote:I would be very interested to know who the new zealand public and press think are the biggest threats this year to the all blacks crown. What do you think ebop and tman?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/rwc-2019-japan/115622509/rugby-world-cup-top-five-threats-to-the-all-blacks-threepeat-in-japan

Collapse2005 wrote:

Old Man wrote:I think Rassie Erasmus is planning to use Jantjies for the pool matches other than the first pool match and Frans Steyn as backup 10 for the big matches

Looks that way alright. Its almost as if Tman doesnt follow SH rugby.

ok, doesnt follow SH rugby. 'Frans Steyn is back up 10 for the BIG matches'

ok. lets look at that.

Jantjes played more tests since 2015 at 10 while waiting for Pollards return.

Frans Steyn has started ONCE (at 10) vs Italy 2008 in Cape town for the Boks and other than subbing there vs japan last subbed there in 2008.

In three of five of those subbed matches they lost to NZ and Oz.

Aha, so your synopsis is against the All Blacks or England in a knockout they're going to start a 10 thats NEVER started for them before in a mildly big match and hasnt even started for the Boks at any time since 2012.

And if Steyn does in fact provide any value by being northern based, then you have again confirmation that in a world cup year, the NH depletion of SH resource, and therefore SH losses, don't hit them so hard.

You're in a dreamworld. I don't know SH rugby? Geez...

Yoda wrote:I would be very interested to know who the new zealand public and press think are the biggest threats this year to the all blacks crown. What do you think ebop and tman?

For me, easily SA and England. Ireland, Oz and Wales have semi credentials but fully expect one of the three to win it.

Taylorman Steyn has been back up 10 for SAs biggest games this year. Have you not noticed? Read this:

https://m.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/boks-need-to-keep-pollard-on-the-park-20190903

I assume you at least noticed that SAs resurgance coincided with Pollard being reinstated as first choice 10 for SA and Jantjies being dropped?

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Old Man wrote:I think Rassie Erasmus is planning to use Jantjies for the pool matches other than the first pool match and Frans Steyn as backup 10 for the big matches

Looks that way alright. Its almost as if Tman doesnt follow SH rugby.

ok, doesnt follow SH rugby. 'Frans Steyn is back up 10 for the BIG matches'

ok. lets look at that.

Jantjes played more tests since 2015 at 10 while waiting for Pollards return.

Frans Steyn has started ONCE (vs Italy 2008) in Cape town for the Boks and other than subbing there vs japan last subbed there in 2008.

In three of five of those subbed matches they lost to NZ and Oz.

Aha, so your synopsis is against the All Blacks or England in a knockout they're going to start a 10 thats NEVER started for them before in a mildly big match and hasnt even started for the Boks at any time since 2012.

And if Steyn does in fact provide any value by being northern based, then you have again confirmation that in a world cup year, the NH depletion of SH resource, and therefore SH losses, don't hit them so hard.

You're in a dreamworld. I don't know SH rugby? Geez...

Frans Steyn is known to have had issues with SARU, in the 2011 RWC he was our form player up until his injury that took him out of the QF vs Australia.

Since 2012 he rarely featured for SA due to (according to him) promises made by SARU that they never kept.

How true it is I don’t know, but nevertheless he didn’t feature.

Rassie Erasmus knows Frans Steyn since he was very young, and Rassie said he knows Frans Steyn very well and knows what he can do, he also said Frans Steyn was always going to be in his RWC squad. When discussions came about in regards to Damian Willemse he said regardless of whether Damian was selected Steyn was his man.

You can read into that what you will, but for reasons unknown to me, Frans Steyn is highly rated by Rassie.

Old Man wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Old Man wrote:I think Rassie Erasmus is planning to use Jantjies for the pool matches other than the first pool match and Frans Steyn as backup 10 for the big matches

Looks that way alright. Its almost as if Tman doesnt follow SH rugby.

ok, doesnt follow SH rugby. 'Frans Steyn is back up 10 for the BIG matches'

ok. lets look at that.

Jantjes played more tests since 2015 at 10 while waiting for Pollards return.

Frans Steyn has started ONCE (vs Italy 2008) in Cape town for the Boks and other than subbing there vs japan last subbed there in 2008.

In three of five of those subbed matches they lost to NZ and Oz.

Aha, so your synopsis is against the All Blacks or England in a knockout they're going to start a 10 thats NEVER started for them before in a mildly big match and hasnt even started for the Boks at any time since 2012.

And if Steyn does in fact provide any value by being northern based, then you have again confirmation that in a world cup year, the NH depletion of SH resource, and therefore SH losses, don't hit them so hard.

You're in a dreamworld. I don't know SH rugby? Geez...

Frans Steyn is known to have had issues with SARU, in the 2011 RWC he was our form player up until his injury that took him out of the QF vs Australia.

Since 2012 he rarely featured for SA due to (according to him) promises made by SARU that they never kept.

How true it is I don’t know, but nevertheless he didn’t feature.

Rassie Erasmus knows Frans Steyn since he was very young, and Rassie said he knows Frans Steyn very well and knows what he can do, he also said Frans Steyn was always going to be in his RWC squad. When discussions came about in regards to Damian Willemse he said regardless of whether Damian was selected Steyn was his man.

You can read into that what you will, but for reasons unknown to me, Frans Steyn is highly rated by Rassie.

I'm not the one reading a lot into anything. You're the one saying he's back up 10 in the BIG matches.

He must be 'highly rated' as for you that means he's willing to start him at 10 vs the All Blacks in a world cup knockout, despite next to zero validation that he'll remotely stand up to that occasion, even to a point that he hasnt even bothered to start him there...ever.

Thats not 'highly rated' thats pure love, probably at a level we've probably never seen before.

Collapse2005 wrote:Taylorman Steyn has been back up 10 for SAs biggest games this year. Have you not noticed? Read this:

https://m.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/boks-need-to-keep-pollard-on-the-park-20190903

I assume you at least noticed that SAs resurgance coincided with Pollard being reinstated as first choice 10 for SA and Jantjies being dropped?

Yes agree Pollards a key reason, but he's not the nly reason. No single player ever is. And I see he's been whisked off to France as soon as its over, SA back to losing matches to Ireland again next year it seems, but that doesnt make the argument that Steyn will be the back up...in fact nothing does.

You still dont get it do you Tman. If Steyn is back up 10 on the bench and Pollard gets injured Steyn will be playing 10.

I am not saying he is back up, I am saying by the looks of how things are panning out he looks to be the back up.

Collapse2005 wrote:You still dont get it do you Tman. If Steyn is back up 10 on the bench and Pollard gets injured Steyn will be playing 10.

You're saying if Pollard pulled out now Franbs Steyn will be the starting 10 this campaign? In which case their chances take a big hit anyway.

He could be 3rd back up to Pollard, 'cos theres no one else' but he wont be the starter in BIG matches, not at 10.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:You still dont get it do you Tman. If Steyn is back up 10 on the bench and Pollard gets injured Steyn will be playing 10.

You're saying if Pollard pulled out now Franbs Steyn will be the starting 10 this campaign? In which case their chances take a big hit anyway.

He could be 3rd back up to Pollard, 'cos theres no one else' but he wont be the starter in BIG matches, not at 10.

You can only speculate but it looks that way. It looks highly likely that Steyn will be bench cover at 10 for all big games. Pollard goes down mid game Steyn will be on at 10.

My biggest concern re SA aside from them being good is they now have an informer in their camp. Felix Jones their new attack coach has been involved in a number of Ireland camps including our tour to Japan two years ago. Not great.

Yes Rassie clarified his position, he will analyse opposition defences and look at weaknesses to exploit.

Felix Jones interview

Nice thanks

Collapse2005 wrote:My biggest concern re SA aside from them being good is they now have an informer in their camp. Felix Jones their new attack coach has been involved in a number of Ireland camps including our tour to Japan two years ago. Not great.

Geez, we gave up worrying about 'informers' in other camps long ago. There's an entire culture of them in the NH and the world over. Welcome to our world.
I'd be more concerned about his attacking abilities.

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:My biggest concern re SA aside from them being good is they now have an informer in their camp. Felix Jones their new attack coach has been involved in a number of Ireland camps including our tour to Japan two years ago. Not great.

Geez, we gave up worrying about 'informers' in other camps long ago. There's an entire culture of them in the NH and the world over. Welcome to our world.


I'd be more concerned about his attacking abilities.

No Taylorman there are no coaches that have coached in the ABs camp in the last few years coaching in another RWC camp now is there?

Also I think NZ rugby are actually a bit paranoid about informers.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/rugby/international-rugby/bizarre-and-unbelievable-steve-hansen-stunned-after-all-blacks-security-consultant-arrested-over-bugging-incident-35430246.html

It's the perfect Joe plan.  Who do we think got Felix sacked just in time to be available for Rassie looking for an angle?

Fill Felix full of fudge for a few years, then call Nucifora and initiate Operation Munster.  Nucifora's Stalinist influence forces Munster to offer Felix a contract he had to refuse and then just wait to see when Rassie would bite.....



Perfecto from the Master.  Felix knows zilch.  Ireland will play a decidedly different way in the WC.


.... to those who get offended by such flights of conspiracy fantasy, I am but spoofing........ or so Joe has ordered me to say anyway

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:My biggest concern re SA aside from them being good is they now have an informer in their camp. Felix Jones their new attack coach has been involved in a number of Ireland camps including our tour to Japan two years ago. Not great.

Geez, we gave up worrying about 'informers' in other camps long ago. There's an entire culture of them in the NH and the world over. Welcome to our world.


I'd be more concerned about his attacking abilities.

No Taylorman there are no coaches that have coached in the ABs camp in the last few years coaching in another RWC camp now is there?

Also I think NZ rugby are actually a bit paranoid about informers.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/rugby/international-rugby/bizarre-and-unbelievable-steve-hansen-stunned-after-all-blacks-security-consultant-arrested-over-bugging-incident-35430246.html

a non event. Love how you take one miniscule occurrance, like an AI win, or some obscure individual test performance, or some bit coach that's now somewhere else, as something significant.

The AB's get most of their game from Super rugby, so you have the basis of what makes NZ rugby strong 'littered' through both your coaching AND playing lines- in fact you have more Super rugby players and coaches THAN WE DO.

That is where Schmidt GOT his knowledge from remember. Gats got it as a player and ITM coach. 'Its why theyre there'.

If one little ol' attack coach in another camp is even remotely a concern, then theres bigger probs than that.

SecretFly wrote:It's the perfect Joe plan.  Who do we think got Felix sacked just in time to be available for Rassie looking for an angle?

Fill Felix full of fudge for a few years, then call Nucifora and initiate Operation Munster.  Nucifora's Stalinist influence forces Munster to offer Felix a contract he had to refuse and then just wait to see when Rassie would bite.....



Perfecto from the Master.  Felix knows zilch.  Ireland will play a decidedly different way in the WC.


.... to those who get offended by such flights of conspiracy fantasy, I am but spoofing........ or so Joe has ordered me to say anyway

Only Felix I know of...is a cat...

The more I think of it the less I think I'm joking!

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:My biggest concern re SA aside from them being good is they now have an informer in their camp. Felix Jones their new attack coach has been involved in a number of Ireland camps including our tour to Japan two years ago. Not great.

Geez, we gave up worrying about 'informers' in other camps long ago. There's an entire culture of them in the NH and the world over. Welcome to our world.


I'd be more concerned about his attacking abilities.

No Taylorman there are no coaches that have coached in the ABs camp in the last few years coaching in another RWC camp now is there?

Also I think NZ rugby are actually a bit paranoid about informers.

https://m.independent.ie/sport/rugby/international-rugby/bizarre-and-unbelievable-steve-hansen-stunned-after-all-blacks-security-consultant-arrested-over-bugging-incident-35430246.html

a non event. Love how you take one miniscule occurrance, like an AI win, or some obscure individual test performance, or some bit coach that's now somewhere else, as something significant.

The AB's get most of their game from Super rugby, so you have the basis of what makes NZ rugby strong 'littered' through both your coaching AND playing lines- in fact you have more Super rugby players and coaches  THAN WE DO.

That is where Schmidt GOT his knowledge from remember. Gats got it as a player and ITM coach. 'Its why theyre there'.

If one little ol' attack coach in another camp is even remotely a concern, then theres bigger probs than that.

Just because I say its my biggest concern doesnt make it a big concern. Schmidt got his knowledge from Mullingar RFC.

ha ha yeah sure, he got contracted overseas not because he knew anything about rugby, just on a whim that he might be a good punt at a club, then a Heineken cup winning one then a multiple 6N test one.

Such foresight... who was it? Mullingar had at the time.

Everyone getting very excited about spies or even poor Felix. Let’s be clear about something it’s not like Rassie is going to have some epiphany about how ireland play because his mate Felix is with the boks for the wc. The only reason that would be very worrying as opposed to slightly bemusing is if Rassie had been up in the high veldt for the last 6 years as a goat herd with no access to tv and had only just got the sa coaching gig by accident.

Forgot to mention that the only way Rassie the goatherd would get something out of it is if he hadn’t seen a joe team playing in the intervening six years. Because not much has changed

Taylorman wrote:ha ha yeah sure, he got contracted overseas not because he knew anything about rugby, just on a whim that he might be a good punt at a club, then a Heineken cup winning one then a multiple 6N test one.

Such foresight... who was it? Mullingar had at the time.

He was in Mullingar to teach not to coach rugby. Mullingar is a tiny club Taylorman it was a joke.

Geen sport voor watjes wrote:Forgot to mention that the only way Rassie the goatherd would get something out of it is if he hadn’t seen a joe team playing in the intervening six years. Because not much has changed

Well if he ain't getting some wonderful inside info on Joe's best kept secret battleplans..... exactly what IS he getting from Felix?

Felix got laid off by (I mean suddenly wanted to leave) Munster. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the 'attack coach' bit of his CV?

Millingar is famous for having an actual statue of Joe in the town centre! Unknown fact for our Kiwi friends.

Check it out on Google. Though be warned, it was sculpted by Emanuel Santos.

Geen sport voor watjes wrote:Everyone getting very excited about spies or even poor Felix. Let’s be clear about something it’s not like Rassie is going to have some epiphany about how ireland play because his mate Felix is with the boks for the wc. The only reason that would be very worrying as opposed to slightly bemusing is if Rassie had been up in the high veldt for the last 6 years as a goat herd with no access to tv and had only just got the sa coaching gig by accident.

Well inside knowledge is overated anyway. Look at Eddie J. Hes been in both the Oz and SA camps in World cup finals, and worked out how to knock the Boks over with Japan even!

Mitchell has coached in NZ, Oz and SA to high levels. Doesnt matter when it was. Each team has a commonality that runs through it in terms of player psyche and team culture.

Rugbys a global game and some will be winning it for others. The chances of a non NZ originated pro coach or player being involved in the final is I'd say, about zero.That would require none of NZ, England, Ireland, Oz, Wales, probably Scotland, Samoa, Tonga and probably five or six more to be in the final.

A France SA final is probably the best bet, and thats only cos I can't recall any from there.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:ha ha yeah sure, he got contracted overseas not because he knew anything about rugby, just on a whim that he might be a good punt at a club, then a Heineken cup winning one then a multiple 6N test one.

Such foresight... who was it? Mullingar had at the time.

He was in Mullingar to teach not to coach rugby. Mullingar is a tiny club Taylorman it was a joke.

ok, Go here and you can get to see Sexton holding up the trophy:

https://www.606v2.com/t69026-new-mobile-game-rugby-world-championship-2



I wonder if it has a player management module like the real game. Sly looking poachers, forged passport entry dates, raving French Quadrillionaires, wonky ranking systems, compromised referees (oh, thats only available in the deluxe version). Be a lot of fun...

SecretFly wrote:Millingar is famous for having an actual statue of Joe in the town centre!  Unknown fact for our Kiwi friends.

Check it out on Google.  Though be warned, it was sculpted by Emanuel Santos.

Ha wrong Joe

It's a bad day for World Rugby when you're even denied a gloating thread After winning a few games.

Despicable!

I see the Irish gloating thread got closed down.... on account of some Welsh lads showing up and ruining it.

Where do we go now to boast about how sweet life will be after we win the World Cup.... for the second time in a row in 2023?