Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

The best thing about our system is that every single person in the country gets an equal vote under equal circumstances. Unless a National ID card scheme is introduced this will just alienate poorer voters. Just another way to rig the system.

I've never known a cabinet / party so determined to make things worse for itself. Every time they say that they're 'getting on with what people really care about,' they're implying that the public don't care about partygate. Firstly, they know that's not true, and secondly, the implication angers people all over again. Similarly, Johnson said a number of times yesterday that partygate is merely a Westminster media obsession.

He looked awful yesterday. The numbers were clearly much worse than his team thought possible. And the cat's out of the bag now. The rebels will be emboldened by knowing how many of them there are.

No polls have been released for Tiverton yet, where the Lib Dems are seeking to reverse a 60-15% poll outcome in 2019 and which they are 1/5 to do so, but Wakefield has had two polls released with Labour leading by 20% and 23%.

I really don't see how Johnson can survive a thrashing in Wakefield, a loss in Tiverton, and 40% of his own MPs not backing him.

If he has any sense, he'll be gone by the end of the month.

Duty281 wrote:No polls have been released for Tiverton yet, where the Lib Dems are seeking to reverse a 60-15% poll outcome in 2019 and which they are 1/5 to do so, but Wakefield has had two polls released with Labour leading by 20% and 23%.

I really don't see how Johnson can survive a thrashing in Wakefield, a loss in Tiverton, and 40% of his own MPs not backing him.

If he has any sense, he'll be gone by the end of the month.

He'll need to be leant on before he goes. Bear in mind he still doesn't really think he's done anything wrong. On that point, I hate this idea that his shamelessness is a strength, that a man who doesn't know when to do the honourable thing is somehow 'defying political gravity' and should be applauded. I don't want that to take root in our politics.

If we've learnt nothing else from the last few years, Boris and his supporters will try and put a positive spin on anything they can.

The fact they are claiming its a good result and a fresh mandate is laughable.

I just hope that Labour put in their own motion of no-confidence in the house and the rebels have the balls to support it

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:No polls have been released for Tiverton yet, where the Lib Dems are seeking to reverse a 60-15% poll outcome in 2019 and which they are 1/5 to do so, but Wakefield has had two polls released with Labour leading by 20% and 23%.

I really don't see how Johnson can survive a thrashing in Wakefield, a loss in Tiverton, and 40% of his own MPs not backing him.

If he has any sense, he'll be gone by the end of the month.

He'll need to be leant on before he goes. Bear in mind he still doesn't really think he's done anything wrong. On that point, I hate this idea that his shamelessness is a strength, that a man who doesn't know when to do the honourable thing is somehow 'defying political gravity' and should be applauded. I don't want that to take root in our politics.

Boris has got away with things his entire career, so why should this be any different? Hell, his gaffe about Mrs Zagari-Ratcliffe on its own would have been the end of the front bench political career of anyone else, yet Boris somehow ended up getting promoted. Also, I know times have changed, but what has happened with Conservative family values, when Boris swaps partners like I change socks?

That's what I mean though, I don't want it to be to his credit that he gets away with things that other politicians wouldn't have, just because he's shameless where they weren't. I don't want shamelessness to be seen as a desirable quality in a leader. I don't want any more Boris Johnsons, on the right or the left.

There are plenty of past politicians who also could have kept their jobs if they were unprincipled and / or their MPs gave them carte blanche. That's the only difference. Johnson's not a genius, he's just brazen.

Good to see Boris back at pmqs.
And doing what he does best, throughing out things that are not even credable as if they're facts. We weren't the best in Europe of rolling out vaccines, and people waiting for cancer tests are at there worst in the last decade.

And he is still allowed to parrot out the Love sacks about 40 new hospitals without repercussion.

Starmer was unusually uninspired. Had an open goal and tried to be too clever. If Im him I wait until this Durham farce is over then challenge for a General Election. If Johnson wants to claim he has a new mandate then let him put his money where his mouth is.

Trouble is, many people don't find Starmer interesting or engaging, and are yet to see what he stands for.
So unless he comes up with something truly inspiring, and not just well were not the Tories, any election this year i think will end with a hung parliament or a minority government. And though the deals will be interesting, at this moment in time we need stability in my opinion (something the Tories certainly aren't).

Labour are properly snookered by the political system. They're never going to win a majority in Westminster while Scotland remains part of the U.K. The best they can do is be the largest party in Westminster, with the minor parties giving them the support they need to govern. But the price of that support is likely to be the abolition of FPTP and the installation of PR. Such an idea would be the death knell to Labour, because they are propped up in hundreds of constituencies by the element of tactical voting, which would vanish in a PR world.

Labour would probably like a GE now-ish, because Johnson is at his weakest and the cost of living crisis is at the forefront of people's minds. Labour's lead is small (about 6-7% on average) but consistent. However they have no actual method of getting a GE unless the Tories oblige, which would be madness on their part. The country needs fewer General Elections anyway; one this summer or autumn would mean four in the past seven and a bit years, which is just silly.

Labour's best bet would be the end of Starmer's beige leadership and the introduction of a leader with dynamism, charisma, vision and ideas, all things Starmer lacks.

We do need less GE, and the constant madness of being able to call one at any time suitable to the government.
But if there is one thing that will unite the Tories and stop the bickering it's a GE. Now would be a stupid time to call one to a degree, but on the other side its only going to get worse with the cost of living. Add in the conservatives have been in charge for 12 years (14 by the time the next GE is due),and all the other things that have happened during that time (austerity, Brexit and lack of movement on that front, all that's happened since Boris etc). And Labour stand a good chance unless there is a sudden upturn, or what is more likely alot of tax cuts.
Agree Labour are snookered, and need to be forth right as a party, but don't think they would agree to any form of pr, as not in there interest. But wouldn't suprise me if they do have to agree to another Scottish independent vote.
I sort of get the feel the next GE is the most important for some time, possibly since Blair won.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-06-09/brexit-cost-the-uk-billions-in-lost-trade-and-tax-revenues-research-finds

Thanks, Leave voters.

I've heard a few people saying Starmer missed an open goal by not focussing on the leadership challenge, and it was the obvious line of attack, but open goal suggests there's a keeper scrambling back and the chance is a fleeting one. There's no keeper here. Johnson is terminally weakened by the vote (the numbers are still really shocking) and Starmer hasn't missed his chance in that respect, the goal's still wide open. The really worrying thing for Johnson is that he's on a weak footing pretty much wherever Starmer focuses policy-wise. Any successes are either in the past, or made up (embellished at best).

It's almost sad watching him coming out with the same old bullish routine when so few people believe a word he says, and it's his own fault of course. Whatever 'charm' he had just doesn't work any more - but he's got nothing else to offer.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I've heard a few people saying Starmer missed an open goal by not focussing on the leadership challenge, and it was the obvious line of attack, but open goal suggests there's a keeper scrambling back and the chance is a fleeting one. There's no keeper here. Johnson is terminally weakened by the vote (the numbers are still really shocking) and Starmer hasn't missed his chance in that respect, the goal's still wide open. The really worrying thing for Johnson is that he's on a weak footing pretty much wherever Starmer focuses policy-wise. Any successes are either in the past, or made up (embellished at best).

It's almost sad watching him coming out with the same old bullish routine when so few people believe a word he says, and it's his own fault of course. Whatever 'charm' he had just doesn't work any more - but he's got nothing else to offer.

To be honest, Starmer did the right thing. Keep the focus on what's happening/not happening with the general public, eveeyone nows about the vote. No need to keep on about it, show the other issue's with the government. And how the general public are struggling.

But sooner or later he needs policies himself.

I think Labour are going fine just now as far as policy goes. If its a big enough issue they'll pressure the government into acting (windfall tax) but need to keep the cards close to the chest until its election time.

For me Starmers biggest mistake is refusing to accept Brexit is a busted flush. The "we're out and we have to make it work" isnt flying with a lot of people. I think they should be backing rejoining the single market at the very least. That would help alleviate some of the cost of living issues we have. If they campaign with that in the manifesto they'll have my vote.

Luke wrote:We do need less GE, and the constant madness of being able to call one at any time suitable to the government.
But if there is one thing that will unite the Tories and stop the bickering it's a GE. Now would be a stupid time to call one to a degree, but on the other side its only going to get worse with the cost of living. Add in the conservatives have been in charge for 12 years (14 by the time the next GE is due),and all the other things that have happened during that time (austerity, Brexit and lack of movement on that front, all that's happened since Boris etc). And Labour stand a good chance unless there is a sudden upturn, or what is more likely alot of tax cuts.  
Agree Labour are snookered, and need to be forth right as a party, but don't think they would agree to any form of pr, as not in there interest. But wouldn't suprise me if they do have to agree to another Scottish independent vote.
I sort of get the feel the next GE is the most important for some time, possibly since Blair won.

I think the Tories are gambling on the idea that the cost of living crisis will have largely abated by 2024, and that the economy would be showing signs of improvement by then, leaving them better placed to win a GE in 2024 than 2022. To that end, the Bank of England reckons that inflation will peak at 10% this year, but drop to 2% in around two years, as the current causes of inflation are not likely to last.

Duty281 wrote:

Luke wrote:We do need less GE, and the constant madness of being able to call one at any time suitable to the government.
But if there is one thing that will unite the Tories and stop the bickering it's a GE. Now would be a stupid time to call one to a degree, but on the other side its only going to get worse with the cost of living. Add in the conservatives have been in charge for 12 years (14 by the time the next GE is due),and all the other things that have happened during that time (austerity, Brexit and lack of movement on that front, all that's happened since Boris etc). And Labour stand a good chance unless there is a sudden upturn, or what is more likely alot of tax cuts.  
Agree Labour are snookered, and need to be forth right as a party, but don't think they would agree to any form of pr, as not in there interest. But wouldn't suprise me if they do have to agree to another Scottish independent vote.
I sort of get the feel the next GE is the most important for some time, possibly since Blair won.

I think the Tories are gambling on the idea that the cost of living crisis will have largely abated by 2024, and that the economy would be showing signs of improvement by then, leaving them better placed to win a GE in 2024 than 2022. To that end, the Bank of England reckons that inflation will peak at 10% this year, but drop to 2% in around two years, as the current causes of inflation are not likely to last.

The current high rate of inflation in the UK has 3 components, 2 of which are international / global and the third of our own making:
1 - The ending of Coronavirus restrictions, and associated difficulties in supply chains
2 - Russia / Ukraine - impacts on fuel supplies and also some agricultural product costs
3 - Brexit (the financial impact of which was somewhat delayed / hidden during the pandemic and because of the initial transition agreements)

Obviously, the first and third of these are really 'one time' costs hitting at the same time, while the second is less predictable in the medium and longer term. Prices will stabilise at a higher rate quite soon (i.e. 1-2 years) but the question is whether wages will generally move to keep up. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see slight deflation for a little while around 2024, as the price bubble bursts.

Wonder how much we’ll end up paying per poor desperate person to send them to Rwanda. Apparently 1 person is enough for the flight to take off

All to satisfy some sad pathetic racists

Big fan of watching Liz Truss say we need to “follow through with this agreement with Rwanda” in the same interview she talked about pulling apart the NI Protocol. Alannis Morrisette wishes could come up with irony like that.

I’ve heard conflicting reports that it costs anywhere between £30k-100k per person to charter these flights. Theres surely cheaper cuts of red meat to throw at the racists?

One of the charities working with asylum seekers tweeted that there were now only 7 tickets remaining for today’s flight. Is £500k a fair estimate of the full cost of a flight? £30-£100k sounds pretty accurate

Question is how much more of this Tory government incompetence will it be until being flown to Rwanda becomes the preferred option?

Thankfully the flight hasn’t taken off. Excellent news for all non racists

BamBam wrote:Thankfully the flight hasn’t taken off. Excellent news for all non racists

But disappointing for plane spotters who'd been assured it would take off.

Dont be fooled, this is exactly what the Tories wanted. This plane was never going to take off, but now they can blame everyone from the EU, the “elite establishment”, “lefty lawyers” and the ECHR, which will pave the way for them to trash our human rights altogether.

Maybe so, but that is a battle for another day.

For now I’m just happy that some desperate people weren’t deported for the sole purpose of satisfying disgusting knuckle dragging racists whose biggest accomplishment in life is dropping out of their mother’s vagina on a certain bit of land

BamBam wrote:Maybe so, but that is a battle for another day.

For now I’m just happy that some desperate people weren’t deported for the sole purpose of satisfying disgusting knuckle dragging racists whose biggest accomplishment in life is dropping out of their mother’s vagina on a certain bit of land

You've been reading the Golf section again, I see.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/15/lib-dems-say-they-trail-only-narrowly-in-tiverton-and-honiton-race

Tories have given up on Wakefield, which is fair enough. All concentration being put into the battle in Tiverton, where the Lib Dems reckon they're two points behind and nicely poised to win the by-election. If that's an accurate poll, I'm surprised the Tories are doing that well. More likely it's a poll to galvanise Lib Dem activists and voters into action with eight days left.

Samo wrote:Dont be fooled, this is exactly what the Tories wanted. This plane was never going to take off, but now they can blame everyone from the EU, the “elite establishment”, “lefty lawyers” and the ECHR, which will pave the way for them to trash our human rights altogether.

Which Boris is already hinting at by leaving the convention of human rights.

Luke wrote:

Samo wrote:Dont be fooled, this is exactly what the Tories wanted. This plane was never going to take off, but now they can blame everyone from the EU, the “elite establishment”, “lefty lawyers” and the ECHR, which will pave the way for them to trash our human rights altogether.

Which Boris is already hinting at by leaving the convention of human rights.

Theres a word for a government attacking and undermining institutions that can stand up to them, but I cant quite put my finger on it…

Big week politically.

Johnson will move closer to the exit door if the Tories fail to hold Tiverton on Thursday. It would be difficult to survive two damaging by-election defeats on top of 40% of his MPs not supporting him. But a Tory hold in Tiverton will sustain his premiership for a little while longer.  The Lib Dems, probably underselling it on their side, claim that the race is 45-45% equal; the betting markets say they're 1/3 favourites to win. Wakefield is obviously a lost cause, but the scale of the Tory defeat will be interesting to view. The Tories managed 47% of the vote in 2019, but are unlikely to get more than 30% in the by-election.

If Labour win by 25%+ in Wakefield, plus the Lib Dems win in Tiverton, it'll be a devastating night for Johnson and one he can't recover from.

Starmer is also getting closer to what could be the final judgement from Durham police. In a separate matter, Starmer is also under investigation by the Parliament's Standards Commissioner, as is David Lammy.

In two months time there could be two different political leaders at the helm of the two major parties. That would be too sweet.

Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes. Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

I mean its not like there party have been in power for 12 years or anything.

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

Yes it is.

Samo wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

Yes it is.

It's really not.

So explain it to us. How is it the fault of the party who havent been in power for 12 years, and not the fault of the one who has been. The same party who have overseen the worst cost of living crisis in generations, who havent given public sector workers a real term pay rise in years, and whos transport minister refused to meet with the union and mediate discussions?

Labour are so beholden to the unions that they wilfully turn a blind eye to industrial action, you don't have to be in power to influence decisions such as these nor is it a binary one party is right and the other is wrong. Both can be in the wrong at the same time.

This isnt a one party is right and one is wrong situation, one party is in power and so the other isnt. You’re aswell blaming the Lib Dems and SNP - they’ve had exactly the same amount of affect as Labour has.

You also say “turn a blind eye to industrial action” as if you view that as a bad thing. You dont support workers rights?

Samo wrote:This isnt a one party is right and one is wrong situation, one party is in power and so the other isnt. You’re aswell blaming the Lib Dems and SNP - they’ve had exactly the same amount of affect as Labour has.

You also say “turn a blind eye to industrial action” as if you view that as a bad thing. You dont support workers rights?

The Lib Dems and SNP have the same relationship with trade unions as Labour do?

I support workers rights and for that exact reason I cannot support strikes that affect millions up and down the country.

Its thanks to strikes up and down the country that affected millions that gave us things like paid holiday leave, sickness pay, safer working environments, accident compensation, paid mat/paternity leave and extra levels of job protection.

All bloody Keir Starmers fault though. Somehow.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:This isnt a one party is right and one is wrong situation, one party is in power and so the other isnt. You’re aswell blaming the Lib Dems and SNP - they’ve had exactly the same amount of affect as Labour has.

You also say “turn a blind eye to industrial action” as if you view that as a bad thing. You dont support workers rights?

The Lib Dems and SNP have the same relationship with trade unions as Labour do?

I support workers rights and for that exact reason I cannot support strikes that affect millions up and down the country.

That’s the point of strikes though surely.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:This isnt a one party is right and one is wrong situation, one party is in power and so the other isnt. You’re aswell blaming the Lib Dems and SNP - they’ve had exactly the same amount of affect as Labour has.

You also say “turn a blind eye to industrial action” as if you view that as a bad thing. You dont support workers rights?

The Lib Dems and SNP have the same relationship with trade unions as Labour do?

I support workers rights and for that exact reason I cannot support strikes that affect millions up and down the country.

Irony-o-meter is at 1,000, guys.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

The RMT is not affiliated with Labour at all.

In a world where receiving funding from Unions is bad but funding from Russian oligarchs is completely OK.

To be fair I am not the greatest fan of unions get involved in politics, especially given the tortuous versions of 'democracy' that some run internally. Unions are really important though

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

The RMT is not affiliated with Labour at all.

That's just semantics to be honest, the RMT support the left of Labour and always have. For that reason they hold a fair bit of sway when it comes to the overall party.

What do you think of donors paying £120k for dinner with Tory ministers? All fine and dandy I assume?

Soul Requiem wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Tory MP's (particularly those from the class of 2019) and right wing media trying their best to blame Starmer and Labour for the train strikes.  Its honestly beyond parody and satire at this point.

The unions and Labour go hand in hand so it's not exactly an incorrect assertion to make.

The RMT is not affiliated with Labour at all.

That's just semantics to be honest, the RMT support the left of Labour and always have. For that reason they hold a fair bit of sway when it comes to the overall party.

You do know why the Labour party was founded, right? You do know who it was founded by?

Didn't take long for top boot shiner to slink away

lostinwales wrote:In a world where receiving funding from Unions is bad but funding from Russian oligarchs is completely OK.

To be fair I am not the greatest fan of unions get involved in politics, especially given the tortuous versions of 'democracy' that some run internally. Unions are really important though

There are, and always have been, Unions and Unions though. Some have always had the welfare of their members as their guiding principle, whereas others are more interested in getting involved in political battles - from that perspective, the RMT appears to have taken the mantle of Scargill's NUM in trying to take on the (Conservative) Government, which I'm not convinced is a good thing to do at this time*. Didn't, ultimately, work out well for the miners and gave Thatcher a close at hand enemy that allowed her to push through some quite radical economic reforms

*Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake, and with Boris in chearge there are plenty of those...

Awaiting official confirmation, but it seems the Tories have lost Wakefield and Tiverton. Some rumours that they've lost Tiverton by a double-digit margin, which would be astonishing. Pressure will intensify on Johnson over the next few days, if so.

Starmer's fine/no fine rumoured to be announced later on Friday.