2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

lostinwales wrote:Still don't buy the enthusiasm for Trump. He won't win the popular vote for certain, then it becomes a game of getting the EC votes. But he still needs to get people to vote for him who didn't last time.  

We know from Labour under Corbyn that enthusiasm from the committed core does not translate into the popular vote. We also know that pollsters tweak results to account for who participates in the polls, previous results and whatever, which benefits the felon because he's outperformed polls in the past.

Anyway it's going to be chaos but hopefully orange makeup man is done

He doesn't, first of all. If Democrat turnout is depressed to 2016 levels, and Trump's turnout stays at 2020 levels, or just below, then Trump wins.

But I don't see it as difficult that Trump does win new voters. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump increased his vote by 11 million in raw terms, or 0.7% in percentage terms, after a troubled last year of his Presidency. And for almost the last four years he hasn't been President, and that's only going to boost him because the Biden Presidency has been average at best, and is losing on the topic of the economy.

I definitely wouldn't rule Trump out from winning the popular vote, either. It's very unlikely, but a number of reputable polling companies have shown ties or even Trump ahead.

Nate Silver's model ending with Harris as the very, very, very, very narrow favourite.

"At exactly midnight on Tuesday, I pressed the “go” button for the final time on our election model this year. I knew it was going to be close. I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel. We’d decided ahead of time to run 80,000 simulations instead of our usual 40K.

Harris jumped out to a huge early lead, ahead 50.7%-49.3% after the 18,000th simulation — but then Trump + no majority mounted a thrilling comeback. But on simulation #79,281, Harris went on a winning streak, claiming 15 of the next 17 simulations to turn a 5-sim deficit into a 8-sim lead and never looking back. Trump closed to within single digits again as late as simulation #79,603, but couldn’t seal the deal.

And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.

Obviously, this is quite ridiculous. If I’d closed out my 37 browser tabs and left my computer running all night, I have no idea who would have “won”.

It’s not because my default is to hedge or just throw some extra uncertainty parameters in the model for no reason. This is my fifth presidential election — and my ninth general election overall, counting midterms — and there has never been anything like this."

So, Harris is a 50.015% favourite with him. FiveThirtyEight make Harris the 50.3% favourite, slightly bigger. But she remains the 6/4 outsider on the books.

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Still don't buy the enthusiasm for Trump. He won't win the popular vote for certain, then it becomes a game of getting the EC votes. But he still needs to get people to vote for him who didn't last time.  

We know from Labour under Corbyn that enthusiasm from the committed core does not translate into the popular vote. We also know that pollsters tweak results to account for who participates in the polls, previous results and whatever, which benefits the felon because he's outperformed polls in the past.

Anyway it's going to be chaos but hopefully orange makeup man is done

He doesn't, first of all. If Democrat turnout is depressed to 2016 levels, and Trump's turnout stays at 2020 levels, or just below, then Trump wins.

But I don't see it as difficult that Trump does win new voters. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump increased his vote by 11 million in raw terms, or 0.7% in percentage terms, after a troubled last year of his Presidency. And for almost the last four years he hasn't been President, and that's only going to boost him because the Biden Presidency has been average at best, and is losing on the topic of the economy.

I definitely wouldn't rule Trump out from winning the popular vote, either. It's very unlikely, but a number of reputable polling companies have shown ties or even Trump ahead.

I'm no expert on these matters at all. Wouldn't the mail in ballot numbers indicate that turnout is likely to be fairly high though? About 80 million from what I read this morning, so about 50% of the total 2020 turnout. That was even higher in 2020 of course but the election was during covid. I'd presume from those mail in numbers alone that turnout would be expected to be slightly higher than 2020?

As said though, US elections and politics are hardly something I have an extensive knowledge of at all, so that may be a simplistic view.

Think mail in ballots are more a reflection of returning to normal after the trump campaign made massive noise about not doing it last time

And the economy is doing OK regardless of what Fox or whoever is saying. It's just ridiculous though. Trump is totally unsuited for pretty much anything let alone POTUS, and the fact he's still on the ticket is a terrible endorsement for US politics.

I'd also add that though of course social media is not at all representative (and we tend to see what we want to see) but there seem to be plenty of 'I'm Republican but voted for Harris' stories and very little the other way

king_carlos wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Still don't buy the enthusiasm for Trump. He won't win the popular vote for certain, then it becomes a game of getting the EC votes. But he still needs to get people to vote for him who didn't last time.  

We know from Labour under Corbyn that enthusiasm from the committed core does not translate into the popular vote. We also know that pollsters tweak results to account for who participates in the polls, previous results and whatever, which benefits the felon because he's outperformed polls in the past.

Anyway it's going to be chaos but hopefully orange makeup man is done

He doesn't, first of all. If Democrat turnout is depressed to 2016 levels, and Trump's turnout stays at 2020 levels, or just below, then Trump wins.

But I don't see it as difficult that Trump does win new voters. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump increased his vote by 11 million in raw terms, or 0.7% in percentage terms, after a troubled last year of his Presidency. And for almost the last four years he hasn't been President, and that's only going to boost him because the Biden Presidency has been average at best, and is losing on the topic of the economy.

I definitely wouldn't rule Trump out from winning the popular vote, either. It's very unlikely, but a number of reputable polling companies have shown ties or even Trump ahead.

I'm no expert on these matters at all. Wouldn't the mail in ballot numbers indicate that turnout is likely to be fairly high though? About 80 million from what I read this morning, so about 50% of the total 2020 turnout. That was even higher in 2020 of course but the election was during covid. I'd presume from those mail in numbers alone that turnout would be expected to be slightly higher than 2020?

As said though, US elections and politics are hardly something I have an extensive knowledge of at all, so that may be a simplistic view.

Unsure.

In 2016 there were around 58 million early votes and 79 million on the day votes.
In 2020 it was 101 million early votes and 57 million on the day votes.
In 2024, it's around 80 million early votes. So if the turnout on the day is the same or greater than 2016, it'll eclipse 2020 overall.

Whether it will or not is another matter. I think more people are into the habit of voting early now, and Republicans have made more of an effort to encourage early voting amongst their base. Plus I don't think the election feels as pivotal to people in general as 2020 did.

Overall, I think 2024 turnout will be higher than 2016, but lower than 2020.

Trump's camp are talking about if Harris wins she should pardon him..That's defeatist talk.

Read between the lines and stop kidding yourself.

The gap between Women voters and Men is too hard to bridge and there isn't enough Muslims in Penn which is the key state for Stein to interfere.

lostinwales wrote:And the economy is doing OK regardless of what Fox or whoever is saying. It's just ridiculous though. Trump is totally unsuited for pretty much anything let alone POTUS, and the fact he's still on the ticket is a terrible endorsement for US politics.

Starmer.....

Vowed to cut tuition fees......Putting them up.
Vowed to keep the winter fuel allowance....Got rid.
Hammered Boris for taking freebies....
Starmer was going to abolish the House of Lords....Now he is going to stuff it full of cronies.
Charitable status for private schools...
Starmer is happy to watch Women and kids being murdered.
Starmer was going to defend free movement in the EU........and now..
I can think of plenty more..................................................................................................................

Starmer is a knob so Trump isn't completely unsuited at all.

Still some uplifting news for Trump..

Guam....50% results in.......

Harris 49
Trump 46

2020

Biden 55
Trump 41

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:And the economy is doing OK regardless of what Fox or whoever is saying. It's just ridiculous though. Trump is totally unsuited for pretty much anything let alone POTUS, and the fact he's still on the ticket is a terrible endorsement for US politics.

Starmer.....

Vowed to cut tuition fees......Putting them up.
Vowed to keep the winter fuel allowance....Got rid.
Hammered Boris for taking freebies....
Starmer was going to abolish the House of Lords....Now he is going to stuff it full of cronies.
Charitable status for private schools...
Starmer is happy to watch Women and kids being murdered.
Starmer was going to defend free movement in the EU........and now..
I can think of plenty more..................................................................................................................

Starmer is a knob so Trump isn't completely unsuited at all.

No joke, Truss. You're really sounding like a Russian bot these days.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Still some uplifting news for Trump..

Guam....50% results in.......

Harris 49
Trump 46

2020

Biden 55
Trump 41

Yep, and a huge, monumental swing to Trump in Dixville Notch.

Trump 50%; Harris 50% (2024)
Biden 100%; Trump 0% (2020)

Let's just call it now and go to sleep early.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Still some uplifting news for Trump..

Guam....50% results in.......

Harris 49
Trump 46

2020

Biden 55
Trump 41

Yep, and a huge, monumental swing to Trump in Dixville Notch.

Trump 50%; Harris 50% (2024)
Biden 100%; Trump 0% (2020)

Let's just call it now and go to sleep early.

Good early numbers in Nevada for Harris.....They are confident Nevada is going blue.....It's over give it up.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:It's over give it up.

Unlikely, as they still haven't given up on the 2020 election!

JuliusHMarx wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:It's over give it up.

Unlikely, as they still haven't given up on the 2020 election!

Good point   .........Gender split that have voted in North Carolina so far + the early voting.. is 55% Women.....Men 44%....I guess 1% of Aliens must have voted too.

Obviously more Men vote later in the day but it is a substantial difference...Trump needs the old boys to come out en masse.

After the early morning voting in Pennsylvania according to reports its around 56% v 43% with Dems ahead...But Democrats not as bullish as they are about Nevada according to CNN.

Can't see Dems losing Penn but if they do it's over..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:And the economy is doing OK regardless of what Fox or whoever is saying. It's just ridiculous though. Trump is totally unsuited for pretty much anything let alone POTUS, and the fact he's still on the ticket is a terrible endorsement for US politics.

Starmer.....

Vowed to cut tuition fees......Putting them up.
Vowed to keep the winter fuel allowance....Got rid.
Hammered Boris for taking freebies....
Starmer was going to abolish the House of Lords....Now he is going to stuff it full of cronies.
Charitable status for private schools...
Starmer is happy to watch Women and kids being murdered.
Starmer was going to defend free movement in the EU........and now..
I can think of plenty more..................................................................................................................

Starmer is a knob so Trump isn't completely unsuited at all.

What have you been doing to your brain?

Nearly time then.

It would be quite poetic if this election were a blowout for either candidate. 2016 and 2020 weren't expected to be close, but they both were, 2020 especially. This time we're expecting a nail-biter, so how about one candidate gets 350+ and it's all over by 4am?

"A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!

Philadelphia and Detroit! Heavy Law Enforcement is there!!!"

Slow down, Donald. It's not Wednesday yet.

Love how fast Florida counts its votes.

Early numbers looking better for Trump in that state than in 2020.

As said previously, I'm no expert here. Maybe I'll be called a cynic, but, bear with me, I have this subtle hunch that the Trump campaign might not be getting positive news out of Philly...?

Trump on course to win Miami-Dade county in Florida. He didn't win it in 2016 or 2020. Early numbers crushing it in the sunshine state.

Trump 9% ahead in Florida after 2/3rds of the vote. A lot of rural red counties still to declare. Astonishing margin. Trump won Florida by just 3.5% in 2020 and 1.2% in 2016.

Early numbers in Georgia, and it is early, looking roughly similar to 2020, which was a very tight race. Trump does have an early lead, 61%-38% after 13% est., but it is of course rurals getting counted early. Urban turnout key.

Doesn't look like anything to worry about for Harris in Virginia, and I think New Hampshire is looking fine as well.

Actually, as Georgia moves to 25% reporting, I'd say Trump is looking in a marginally stronger position than 2020, which is what he needs.

Ohio looking a fair bit weaker for Trump than 2020, but it was a state he won by 8% then, so shouldn't be any alarm bells. One to keep an eye on though. Nearly 25% in.

Trump may begin panicking in Ohio as he trails by 6% with 2/3rds left. Presuming they've counted mail in first? Perhaps not. He should still win, but looking tighter than it should be.

Big drop of votes in Fulton County, Georgia, not going for Harris as much as it needed to, so Trump looking OK in Georgia.

Early indications favourable for Trump in North Carolina.

Georgia's up to 50% reporting and Trump has a 55%-44% advantage. There's been a strong turnout for Trump in the rural south part of the state, and he's holding up OK in the weaker areas. Still not an insurmountable task for Harris in this state, but it's looking tricky to turn it blue. Trump's 2/9 in this state now.

Trump's now hit the front in Ohio, so I think it's relaxation time there.

Trump on paper running it close in Virginia, and he is certainly doing better than 2020 thus far, but the bigger counties are still to declare, and they should, quite strongly, support Harris.

A mixed start for Trump in NC, 17% of the vote declared, but mixed will do as he won it by just over a 1% in 2020.

Still can't believe that Florida result. 13% lead for Trump with nearly all the vote declared. It's turned from purple to safe red over the last eight years.

Trump now 1/3 to win the Presidency, but I remember he was 1/8 to beat Biden in-running in 2020.

Could still be tight in Georgia. Harris closes to 209k votes behind with maybe about 1.5m votes left? Would need around 850k votes of what's left and there's still a fair few rural counties with thousands of votes left. Most of the votes in blue areas have been counted, but when you've got 30% left in Fulton County, a quarter left in Cobb County etc. it does add up.

It's a big task for Harris, not an impossible one though. Trump's 1/7 in Georgia, but he's not that strong.

Beginning to look very tough for Harris in North Carolina, the first of the 'magic four'. She's just not running up the totals as she should be in her strongholds.

Trump leads by 5% with 60% of the vote left.

Trump leads in Virginia, but Henrico County should pile up a good number for Harris. Still no clear picture in Pennsylvania or Michigan yet.

Trump continues to lead in North Carolina. 4% ahead with around 45% left. Struggle to see it going any other way with most of the blue areas nearly fully declared.

Virginia remains stubbornly close. Trump has also started off a bit better in New Mexico than anticipated, but he lost that by 11% last time, so needs to do considerably stronger than a bit better.

Pennsylvania has started off decently for Harris, but it looks as though mail in ballots have been counted first. So that's one where she'll need to hold on - a reverse of Georgia, where Trump's grip remains strong.

Trump holding on to a narrow lead in Virginia, but while Harris is leaving it late, she should still win here. She's probably not thankful for the 23k votes that Stein has got.

Trump seemingly driving up high rural turnout in Pennsylvania, it'll be close.

Very early indications that Trump is outperforming 2020 in Michigan, but he lost by nearly 3% in 2020, so it will need to be a big improvement.

Trump has definitely started well in Wisconsin, with a 1/3rd of the vote counted. And keeping 200k ahead in Georgia.

Looking promising for Trump. Now a 1/5 favourite to win the EC, and even touching evens to win the popular vote. But it looked more than promising this time four years ago.

Trump now 1/9 to win the EC and 4/9 to win the popular vote.

Trump's popular vote lead is 4.7 million. California might be worth 5 million and can wipe it out, if Democrat turnout is good in that state.

Average first vote drop for Trump in Arizona. Pretty much on par with 2020, where he lost, but we'll see the composition of that vote later. Numbers starting to look good in Pennsylvania for Trump. He has a fractional lead after roughly half of the vote. Continuing to look better in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Ah, I see. NYT is projecting Trump will win the popular vote by 0.8%, on their needle. Hence the odds switch.

Huge vote drop in Gwinnett County, Georgia, but Trump still leads by 170k, about 85% declared, and Harris is beginning to run out of room.

NC is nearly done as well. Trump with a 131k lead, 3%, with only about 17% of the vote left.

Trump's into a 3% lead in Pennsylvania, but that's far from finished. Erie County is a good bellwether for that state, and is nowhere near through yet. Similar with Sauk County in Wisconsin, but seems a good start for Trump in that state.

Arizona definitely in play, but Trump an obvious favourite there. Harris is at least pulling away in Virginia.

Iowa's also come in for Trump very easily. Such an embarrassing, far-off poll, from a reputable company, makes me wonder if something was deliberately off with that.

Nice work, Duty. A long night for you! ("Likes" for all of the above)

Interesting flicking between all the channels for the expert reactions. Gotta love John King's calm analysis.

Well, it certainly helps me stay awake!

Georgia and North Carolina looking safe for Trump, but no guarantees. Georgia looked pretty safe in 2020 for Trump, but Biden still pulled it out. Trump's lead down to 137k there, about 10% left to declare.

Not the best early picture for Trump in Arizona. He leads by 0.1%, with about half of the vote counted, but the sizable Pima County, which will back Harris, still has around half the votes to declare, as does Maricopa, another sizable one with a slight edge to Harris. However, Pima's County next batch of votes might be more favourable to Trump. He lost Pima County by 19% in 2020, he's currently down 26%, you wouldn't expect that to last, so perhaps Trump will be OK in Arizona.

Trump still maintaining the 3% lead in Pennsylvania, around a third left to declare. Trump beginning to look a considerable favourite in Wisconsin. Michigan still early though. One of those three + Arizona + Georgia + NC and he's home.

Trump now 1/20 to win and 2/7 to win the popular vote. A night beyond his wildest dreams if he pulls that double off. But tI wouldn't quite be celebrating yet if I were Trump.

I've been up since 4am... 3pm now.

Apparently Harris has sent out a memo to staff: Keep up the hope... there's still a very, very narrow path.
Probably hookers, hamburgers and balloons being ordered at Mar a Lago.

10s of thousands of mail-in ballots arriving in Philadelphia at 11:55pm. So, that could well help Kamala.

Pennsylvania at 51%-48% Trump with about a quarter of the vote left. A lead of 165k with about 1.3 million left? Harris would need about 735k. Not insurmountable. And there's plenty of votes to come from blue areas. About half in Chester and Montgomery, which may account for 350k ballots. It's definitely in Trump's favour, but far from impossible for Harris.

Michigan has a 2% Harris lead, but still 2/3rds of the vote left. Still early.

Wisconsin, though, looking very favourable to Trump. The strongest of the three rust belt states so far. 48k lead with 666k or so votes left, but looks like more red areas to count.

Looks like we'll drag into Wednesday though. Florida gets through 10 million votes in a couple of hours. Other states will take days to count much fewer votes.

North Carolina and Georgia should be called for Trump.

CNN projects North Carolina for Trump. That's one of the magic four. He's won it three times in a row.

No reason to not call Georgia either. I can't see that the maths is there for her to mount a comeback, unless turnout has been underestimated.

Early drop for Trump in one Nevada county, the first drop in that state, looking better for Trump than 2020. Obviously early days.

Trump is nearly there in Pennsylvania, also, and almost there in Wisconsin. If he can pick up those two, plus Georgia, no need to worry about Arizona or Nevada or Michigan, and the race can be called soon.

Trump has actually flipped into a 4% lead in Michigan.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia look done. I don't see how Harris can pull them back. And that's enough for  Trump.

Trump's into a 4% lead in Wisconsin. He looks to have won the key county of Sauk.

Pennsylvania, Trump's lead is 3.5%. Georgia, it's 3% and only 7% of the vote left. That state should be called.

Not seeing how Harris wins from here. I think it's all over.

Plus Trump has backup in the form of Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

Popular vote still at 4 million for Trump. It's staggering. I thought the national vote polls overrated him and the swing state polls were right in saying it was a close race. If anything, the national polls underrated him and the swing state polls were off. Unbelievable stuff. Republicans winning both houses as well, it seems.

Ever since Trump said he would run for President back in 2015 the BBC, Academia, and many others have gone hysterical. Even when Joe Biden was declared President following the 2020 election we have had to endure the hysterical reporting of Trump over the Biden years even as Biden and BoJo moved the world towards nuclear oblivion with Russia and destroyed the economy with massive inflation by starting trade wars. If Trump wins then we are going to get another four years of hysterical reportage. A lot of champagne socialists will probably be so enraged that their golfing handicaps may rise by a stroke or two.

I can't see how Harris can get back from here , to be honest. We certainly saw big changes late in the count 4 years ago but this just looks too all over Red : asking a lot for all these important States to swing enough now.

I am both surprised (though not totally shocked : American politics is pretty weird) at how Trump has managed to win all these votes across the country ; and alarmed at what this is going to mean - given he also looks like having unfettered control of House and Senate.

One might say - maybe a bit harshly - that Americans will deserve what they get. But the rest of the world (especially Ukraine as one obvious case) are likely to suffer too. Calling this a black day all round.

Erie County in Pennsylvania turns red, along with Northampton (95% counted in both counties).

I earmarked these counties because they both voted Trump in 2016 as he won the state. They both voted Biden in 2020 when he won the state. Now they're both going for Trump and I feel that's key.

It's for a similar reason that I'm not keen on Trump's chances in Michigan, even though he leads by 6% after half the vote.

Wisconsin still looking secure for Trump though. Georgia should be called for Trump.

OK, Georgia's been called for Trump. Puts Trump to 246.

Pennsylvania should be called soon. There's about 600k votes left and Harris would need to win at least 67%, which isn't a realistic proposition. A similar steep hill exists in Wisconsin.

Members of Labour Party were over in America campaigning on behalf of Kamala Harris. If Harris loses and the "threat to democracy" Trump is elected will the Labour Party put America on their list of antidemocrat nations to undermine?

alfie wrote:I can't see how Harris can get back from here , to be honest.  We certainly saw big changes late in the count 4 years ago but this just looks too all over Red : asking a lot for all these important States to swing enough now.  

I am both surprised (though not totally shocked : American politics is pretty weird) at how Trump has managed to win all these votes across the country ; and alarmed at what this is going to mean - given he also looks like having unfettered control of House and Senate.

One might say - maybe a bit harshly - that Americans will deserve what they get.  But the rest of the world (especially Ukraine as one obvious case) are likely to suffer too. Calling this a black day all round.

Heard a comment a couple of hours ago: more blacks voted for Trump and more whites voted for Harris.

Pal Joey wrote:

alfie wrote:I can't see how Harris can get back from here , to be honest.  We certainly saw big changes late in the count 4 years ago but this just looks too all over Red : asking a lot for all these important States to swing enough now.  

I am both surprised (though not totally shocked : American politics is pretty weird) at how Trump has managed to win all these votes across the country ; and alarmed at what this is going to mean - given he also looks like having unfettered control of House and Senate.

One might say - maybe a bit harshly - that Americans will deserve what they get.  But the rest of the world (especially Ukraine as one obvious case) are likely to suffer too. Calling this a black day all round.

Heard a comment a couple of hours ago: more blacks voted for Trump and more whites voted for Harris.

Can't be right though can it ? Surprisingly large support for Trump among black males but did Harris really get more "white" votes ? Presume we will have all sorts of detailed breakdowns of demographics in the coming weeks...but I think I will be tuning out of US media for a while...

My view is simply this.

If the inevitable happens and Trump is sworn in again - just strap yourselves in and go along for the 'ride'. There's nothing any of us can do about it.
It won't be the end of the world. In fact, this outcome probably gives us 4 more years of relative stability. Hopefully. Might also give some good folks a proper reality check.

It will surely be more 'interesting' than Miss Opportunity kicking the can down the road and appeasing all sides all at once. That's even more dangerous for everyone and would encourage the enemies to test her 'leadership'. I never seen a bullet stopped by a word salad... or a joyous feeling.

I'm more concerned with what could happen around 2027 and 2028 when the deck gets shuffled again.

Good figures for Trump in Nevada. Looking like he'll win 6 or 7 of the battleground states. Only Michigan really having doubts at the moment. Trump looks like he has a good lead in Michigan, but Wayne County, heavily blue, still has a lot of votes to declare.

Expect the call for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the next hour, which will confirm the race.

Big recriminations for the Democrats. An utterly horrendous loss and looks as though they've (possibly, not yet confirmed) lost the popular vote for the first time in 20 years, as well as both houses and the Presidency. They did screw up. Biden should have been a one time option and they should have had a proper selection process. Instead they hurriedly crowned Kamala after trying to smuggle Biden in. She wasn't the worst candidate, but she ran a poor campaign which relied on people's dislike of Trump and it backfired. Plus, Biden has been a poor President, and the economic picture was weak, which further hindered their chances.

I expect there'll be some revisionism, and some will claim Biden should have ran, but that would have likely led to Trump getting 400 on the EC scoreboard.

alfie wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

alfie wrote:I can't see how Harris can get back from here , to be honest.  We certainly saw big changes late in the count 4 years ago but this just looks too all over Red : asking a lot for all these important States to swing enough now.  

I am both surprised (though not totally shocked : American politics is pretty weird) at how Trump has managed to win all these votes across the country ; and alarmed at what this is going to mean - given he also looks like having unfettered control of House and Senate.

One might say - maybe a bit harshly - that Americans will deserve what they get.  But the rest of the world (especially Ukraine as one obvious case) are likely to suffer too. Calling this a black day all round.

Heard a comment a couple of hours ago: more blacks voted for Trump and more whites voted for Harris.

Can't be right though can it ?  Surprisingly large support for Trump among black males but did Harris really get more "white" votes ?  Presume we will have all sorts of detailed breakdowns of demographics in the coming weeks...but I think I will be tuning out of US media for a while...

Forget the demographic breakdowns, alfie. That's all BS. Nothing is ever so clear cut. It's all thrown into a blender... and the switch is flicked.
It all comes down to the hip pocket in the end. People were hurting very badly (and still are) and the so-called stupid, ignorant deplorables had their say again.

Oh I don't deny the hip pocket was the major factor , PJ - it usually is. Just expressing surprise at the suggestion that more whites voted for Harris as that seems unlikely on the overall figures.

As you say , it doesn't matter . But I wish I could be as relaxed as you are about four years of Trump. Have a very bad feeling about it on a number of fronts.