2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Trump now ahead in all seven states on RCP, but of course all by very narrow margins. FiveThirtyEight relegating Harris' leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to statistical ties (she leads by under 0.5% in both). And Nate Silver now places Trump as the wafer-thin 50.2% favourite. Betting-wise, more money on Trump as he tightens to 8/13.

National polls have recently been favourable to Trump. Emerson puts Harris up by 1%, Harrisx and Tipp put Harris ahead by 2% - all of those should be wins for Trump via the electoral college. A Fox poll actually put Trump 2% up in the popular vote which would be stunning.

Does appear that Trump has the beginnings of late momentum, for the third campaign in a row. If the polls are overstating him, it's probably not enough to make a difference; and if they're understating him, this late boost won't matter. But if it really is tight, it could be crucial.

An early look at the early voting data shows the Republicans doing well in Arizona and extremely well in Nevada (compared to 2020). North Carolina represents a minor boost for the Republicans compared to 2020, but Georgia seems to be going better for the Democrats than it did in 2020 with early voting (and the Democrats of course won Georgia in 2020).

The early numbers in Pennsylvania seem to be roughly parallel to 2020, with maybe the Democrats doing a smidge better. Michigan and Wisconsin are currently going a LOT better for the Democrats, however, when I compare the early voting numbers to 2020.

It's far from an exact science, as I'm comparing voters by party registration this year to roughly accurate matching data from 2020. In 2020, I thought the polls had overstated Biden in the lead up because these early voting numbers weren't matching what the polls said, and it seemed to bear fruit because the election was extremely tight, contrary to many expectations.

This year, however, polls don't seem to be putting up splits of early voters v election day voters, so the picture's not as clear. But comparing it to four years ago may be sufficient, granted voting behaviours may have altered, but probably not by a great deal.

Overall, good early numbers for Trump in Arizona, Nevada and NC, but the Democrats on the uptick in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia. Pennsylvania tight. Plenty more early voting to go, however, but I'm more impressed by the Democrat early numbers.

Do you think Trump knows that as soon as he’s elected they’ll invoke the 25th and hoof him out on his arse?

Samo wrote:Do you think Trump knows that as soon as he’s elected they’ll invoke the 25th and hoof him out on his arse?

And we'll get President Vance, a more plausible mouthpiece for the fascism of Project 2025 !

Just over two weeks to go:

Arizona - Trump leads by 1.6% on RCP (+0.6% for Trump from last week); Trump leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Nevada - Trump leads by 0.8% on RCP (+0.6% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.5% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.1% for Trump).

Georgia - Trump leads by 1.8% on RCP (+1.3% for Trump); Trump leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.8% for Trump).

North Carolina - Trump leads by 0.5% on RCP (no change); Trump leads by 0.5% on FiveThirtyEight (-0.4% for Trump).

Pennsylvania - Trump leads by 0.8% on RCP (+0.5% for Trump); Trump leads by 0.3% on FiveThirtyEight (+1% for Trump).

Michigan - Trump leads by 1.2% on RCP (+0.3% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.2% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.6% for Trump).

Wisconsin - Trump leads by 0.2% on RCP (+0.5% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.2% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.4% for Trump).

Current scores - Republicans win 312-226 with RCP's average; Republicans win 281-257 on FiveThirtyEight's average.
Nate Silver's model - Harris 46.6%-53.1% Trump (+4.4% for Trump since seven days ago).
FiveThirtyEight's model - Harris 47%-52.6% Trump (+6.6% for Trump since seven days ago).
Bet365 - Trump 4/7; Harris 11/8.

So, Trump continues to advance forward and he's into narrow favouritism now across the board.

The caveat I would say is there's been a real lack of high quality polling across the last week. Some of the move is down to garbage polling from Atlas Intel, which for whatever reason is highly rated, but came out over the weekend with a 3% national Trump lead, while at the same time only giving Trump a lead in three of the swing states (two tied). That's nonsense. If Trump really did win the national vote by 3%, which is a huge stretch, he'd sweep the seven swing states and probably be in with a good chance of winning Minnesota/NH.

The polls in Arizona look good for Trump. CBS/YouGov came out with a 3% Trump lead, and the last NYT/Siena poll put Trump 5% ahead. Other polls from the less renowned Redfield and Trafalgar also came in with narrow Trump leads. Only MorningConsult, which has a big blue bias, came in with a Democrat lead recently (1%). Early voting numbers also look good for Trump here.

In Nevada the polls look OK for Harris, but there's a real lack of them. Only Rasmussen, with its big red bias, putting Trump ahead recently. Trafalgar and Emerson putting Harris ahead. Redfield showing a tie. So far, the early voting numbers also looking OK for Harris in this one, but it is the least important of the seven.

Georgia's seeing a lot of red. Quinnipiac somehow found a 6% Trump lead, and Atlas, Insider, ECU and even Morning Consult have also shown Trump leads, though by 1%-3% margins. Emerson and Tipp have found ties in this state. But no blue for a little while. Early vote numbers look decent for Trump here, but must be remembered that in 2020 Georgia was one of the few places where Trump was actually overstated in the polling numbers.

North Carolina remains possibly the most fascinating state. Won by Trump in both 2016 and 2020, he's struggling to make it three in a row. Recent polls from Quinnipiac and Atlas have put Harris narrowly in front. But Trafalgar and Morning Consult have gone narrowly the other way. Cygnal and Emerson have shown ties. Early vote numbers so far looking slightly stronger for Trump than 2020. For all the talk of Pennsylvania and Michigan, North Carolina with its 16 EC votes might end up being the most crucial.

Pennsylvania has had barely any polling recently. Atlas gave a 3% lead for Trump, while Redfield and Bullfinch showed ties. Early vote numbers strong for the Democrats, but it's actually on par with 2020 so far, and that ended up being very close.

Michigan, again, a lack of polling. Mitchell Research and Atlas both putting up leads for Trump, with Bullfinch putting in a crazy 8% lead for Harris, which is obviously silly. Ties with Redfield and RMG. Early voting numbers currently looking stronger for the Democrats than 2020, it's a very encouraging picture for them.

And Wisconsin not a lot of polling either. Atlas, Redfield and Bullfinch have all given narrow Harris leads, while RMG, Rasmussen and 'Patriot Polling' (you can guess the bias!) have all thrown up narrow Trump leads. Like Michigan, early voting numbers currently looking strong for the Democrats.

If I had to predict right now, I'd say Trump would win Arizona, Georgia and NC, while Harris would win Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but, really, the race is too close! I'd keep an eye on Texas and Florida as well, because they're far from watertight for Trump.

Washington Post just came up with this:

GA: Harris+4
WI: Harris+3
MI: Harris+2
PA: Harris+2
NV: Tie
AZ: Trump+3
NC: Trump+3

That's a very unlikely result in Georgia, but who knows? Good numbers for Harris. She's still my favourite.

Duty281 wrote:
Pennsylvania has had barely any polling recently. Atlas gave a 3% lead for Trump, while Redfield and Bullfinch showed ties. Early vote numbers strong for the Democrats, but it's actually on par with 2020 so far, and that ended up being very close.

Be interesting to see if Musk's bribes-for-voting scheme has any effect ('cos that's what it is, despite it being couched in vaguer terms).

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:
Pennsylvania has had barely any polling recently. Atlas gave a 3% lead for Trump, while Redfield and Bullfinch showed ties. Early vote numbers strong for the Democrats, but it's actually on par with 2020 so far, and that ended up being very close.

Be interesting to see if Musk's bribes-for-voting scheme has any effect ('cos that's what it is, despite it being couched in vaguer terms).

I don't think it'll make much difference. In any case, Harris is vastly outspending Trump - $270 million in September was Harris' spend, versus $78 million for Trump.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Very good early numbers for Trump in Nevada. Much stronger than anticipated. Is this a harbinger of a Trump sweep across the swing states, or just an indication that more Republicans are voting early, with fewer coming out on election day?

Some more tidy numbers for Trump.

Emerson showing Trump ahead by 1% in Pennsylvania, 1% in Wisconsin and 2% in North Carolina. Marist, another highly regarded polling company, showing Trump leading by 1% in Arizona, 2% in North Carolina and a tie, interestingly, in Georgia.

But Quinnipiac polling a 3% lead for Harris in Michigan and a tie in Wisconsin. Quinnipiac are highly rated, but their polling has been wild in this election cycle. Their previous poll in Michigan, just a couple of weeks ago, had Trump up by 4%!

Early numbers currently looking good for Trump in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and NC. Pennsylvania is currently weaker for the Democrats in early numbers than four years ago, but Michigan and Wisconsin continue to look fairly strong.

Marist actually put up the early voting numbers in their poll:

Harris 55%-43% Trump in NC (actual early numbers show 34% Rep registered voters have voted; 35% Democrats; 21% independent)
Harris 56%-44% Trump in Arizona (actual early numbers show 42% Rep registered voters have voted; 36% Democrats; 22% independent)
Harris 55%-45% Trump in Georgia (actual early numbers show 48% Rep registered voters have voted; 46% Democrats; 6% independent)

Can't ignore the national vote numbers now, which seem to be in decline for Harris.

The highly rated NY Times/Siena poll found a national tie between Harris and Trump. And this was replicated in a CNN poll. Overall, Harris' national lead has declined from 2.9% to 1.5% on RCP in the space of a month.

And she's unlikely to win the EC if she only wins the popular vote by 1.5%. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and narrowly lost; Biden won it by 4.5% and narrowly won.

A few moments ago at Trump's rally in Novi, Michigan, a group of Arab and Muslim community leaders joined the former president on stage to endorse him and explain why they're backing him.

The largest Arab population in the US is in Dearborn, Michigan, not far from where Trump is speaking - and one of those on stage is the mayor of Dearborn.

They voiced their support for Trump and desire for peace in the Middle East, which they believe he can bring. Trump said the Muslim vote could help turn Michigan for him.

Weird timeline gets weirder. Will this provide the little edge Trump needs to win Michigan?

Duty281 wrote:Can't ignore the national vote numbers now, which seem to be in decline for Harris.

The highly rated NY Times/Siena poll found a national tie between Harris and Trump. And this was replicated in a CNN poll. Overall, Harris' national lead has declined from 2.9% to 1.5% on RCP in the space of a month.

And she's unlikely to win the EC if she only wins the popular vote by 1.5%. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and narrowly lost; Biden won it by 4.5% and narrowly won.

Way more people that are newly registered to vote are registering as Democrats.....It's the elephant in the room for anybody thinking the early numbers are significant.

Harris wins......Probably not Pennsylvania.......Trump needs Stein to take Muslim support away and when faced with the "I may let Trump in if I do vote Stein".....Will they change their mind. Enough will.

I think it's over...

Not long now:

Arizona - Trump leads by 1.5% on RCP (-0.1% for Trump from last week); Trump leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Nevada - Trump leads by 0.7% on RCP (-0.1% for Trump); Trump leads by 0.2% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.7% for Trump).

Georgia - Trump leads by 2.3% on RCP (+0.5% for Trump); Trump leads by 1.5% on FiveThirtyEight (-0.3% for Trump).

North Carolina - Trump leads by 0.8% on RCP (+0.3% for Trump); Trump leads by 1.3% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.8% for Trump).

Pennsylvania - Trump leads by 0.5% on RCP (-0.3% for Trump); Trump leads by 0.3% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Michigan - Trump leads by 0.2% on RCP (-1% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.4% on FiveThirtyEight (-0.2% for Trump).

Wisconsin - Trump leads by 0.2% on RCP (no change); Harris leads by 0.2% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Current scores - Republicans win 312-226 with RCP's average; Republicans win 287-251 on FiveThirtyEight's average.
Nate Silver's model - Harris 46.8%-52.9% Trump (-0.2% for Trump since seven days ago).
FiveThirtyEight's model - Harris 45.2%-54.5% Trump (+1.9% for Trump since seven days ago).
Bet365 - Trump 8/15; Harris 6/4.

Usual, race remains super close. Trump is a justified narrow favourite now.

One thing not widely talked about, but I think is interesting, is where Trump is holding his final campaign rallies. In his previous two election campaigns he's made sensible choices. In 2020 he was closing out with rallies in places that were very feasible to win. This year, as well as going to the usual stops, like Georgia/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Nevada, he's also making trips to New Mexico and Virginia.

NM and Virginia are soft blue states, ones you'd only expect Harris to be in danger of losing if Trump did extraordinarily well. Trump's willingness to campaign there so close to the election might indicate that his internal polling is showing strong numbers for him. And his campaigning in NY might indicate a push to win the popular vote, with the external polls certainly tightening in that regard. Or it might indicate Trump's lost his mind, but like I say, he generally has been sensible with rally choices in the past.

The fundamental question is who is it that Trump appeals to? There are the standard lines about anybody with half a brain - and there do seem to be far too many people in the states with only half a brain. But of more significance is the simple question of where does he get more votes from than he did last time out? Because ignoring election rigging he has to get more people out voting for him than last time out, and outside of his core voters he's not doing anything to encourage those people to switch.

lostinwales wrote:The fundamental question is who is it that Trump appeals to? There are the standard lines about anybody with half a brain - and there do seem to be far too many people in the states with only half a brain. But of more significance is the simple question of where does he get more votes from than he did last time out? Because ignoring election rigging he has to get more people out voting for him than last time out, and outside of his core voters he's not doing anything to encourage those people to switch.

Charlatans always thrive when times get hard....Farage at the moment is the most popular leader in the UK according to Yougov and Survation.

Old people remember how easy it was for them to get on the housing ladder, how the gas for their cars was cheaper and see their kids and grandkids struggling. Youngsters bemoan the fact they can work full time but see no way to buying their own house or if they can don't see how they can afford kids.  They see sleazy politicians taking freebies and being bought by Countries like Israel.  

When politicians tell them that things are getting better they don't see it because of trickle down politics.

Trump comes along and highlights the money wasted on immigration, highlights the sewer of Washington..The red tape..offers tax cuts.

Easy to see really......Politicians have never been more hated and rightly so....Trump sets himself as an outsider.

Harris will win big by the way.  One pollster has her seven points ahead at the moment and I do think she will lose Penn but win the rest.....including Georgia.

You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

Of course, that 'comedian' didn't reflect the views of the candidate. At all. Not one bit.

lostinwales wrote:The fundamental question is who is it that Trump appeals to? There are the standard lines about anybody with half a brain - and there do seem to be far too many people in the states with only half a brain. But of more significance is the simple question of where does he get more votes from than he did last time out? Because ignoring election rigging he has to get more people out voting for him than last time out, and outside of his core voters he's not doing anything to encourage those people to switch.

He doesn't necessarily have to get more votes. He got more votes in 2020 than 2016 (46.8% + 74.2 million v 46.1% + 63 million) and didn't win. A slump in Democrat turnout will get him over the line, which he was incredibly close to doing in 2020.

And that's what this election is, really, it's a referendum on the Biden/Harris government of the last four years. And it is an unpopular government.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

It was a rally that generated national headlines and reach. From the Silver Bulletin:"today and yesterday are the top days of Google search traffic for Trump since the second assassination attempt against him in September. "

I do think it was a push to rack up the enthusiasm in one of the most populous states and make a step towards winning the popular vote.

Another good day for Trump in the polling.

A Suffolk poll, highly regarded, put Trump with a 1% lead in Wisconsin. A New Hampshire poll, a soft blue state, was a surprise tie, and a Minnesota poll showed a smaller than expected Harris lead of just 3%.

InsiderAdvantage gave Trump small leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Rasmussen, not one I take much notice of usually, polled two states - in Texas they showed a reasonable 6% lead for Trump, which is why it was interesting to see Virginia, where Trump will campaign, have only a 2% Harris lead.

NY Times/Siena also coming in with a 10% Trump lead in Texas, improved on their last poll (6%), and would be a slightly bigger victory for Trump in the state than 2016.

Beginning to look very good for Trump. He's up to 55% probability on Silver's forecast.

All Trump's leads are margin of error. Some of Harris leads aren't in the margin of error.

Best not to confuse what you want to see with what you are going to see.

A comfortable Harris win....Like I said a lot more new democrat voters have signed up to vote than Republicans.

Stein is Trump's only hope.....and it's a vain one.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:All Trump's leads are margin of error.  Some of Harris leads aren't in the margin of error.

Best not to confuse what you want to see with what you are going to see.

A comfortable Harris win....Like I said a lot more new democrat voters have signed up to vote than Republicans.

Stein is Trump's only hope.....and it's a vain one.

Objectively false and, even if true, entirely irrelevant, as that could still lead to a Trump victory.

If you're convinced on Harris, though, best get your life savings on at 7/4.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

It was a rally that generated national headlines and reach. From the Silver Bulletin:"today and yesterday are the top days of Google search traffic for Trump since the second assassination attempt against him in September. "

I do think it was a push to rack up the enthusiasm in one of the most populous states and make a step towards winning the popular vote.

You're confusing attention for favourability. Trump does it himself when he talks about how many people tuned in to watch this or that press conference. He assumes that everyone who watched did so because they like him.

And I don't doubt that they were trying to 'rack up the enthusiasm' - but amongst who? That was my point.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

It was a rally that generated national headlines and reach. From the Silver Bulletin:"today and yesterday are the top days of Google search traffic for Trump since the second assassination attempt against him in September. "

I do think it was a push to rack up the enthusiasm in one of the most populous states and make a step towards winning the popular vote.

You're confusing attention for favourability. Trump does it himself when he talks about how many people tuned in to watch this or that press conference. He assumes that everyone who watched did so because they like him.

And I don't doubt that they were trying to 'rack up the enthusiasm' - but amongst who? That was my point.

Not confusing the two at all. Trump needs attention and wants to dominate the news cycle. He's being vastly outspent, as in the last two elections, so goes for these ostentatious rallies to grab the headlines (though I think this was the most ostentatious).

He's trying to rack up the enthusiasm amongst Republicans in New York, a place where turnout is stifled because it's not a battleground state, but also more generally around Trump leaners who may or may not vote. Trump is also in the unusual position of (narrowly) leading in the polls, something that wasn't the case in 2016/2020, so he may be trying to avoid complacency amongst his voters.

Emerson with a 1% Trump lead in Michigan. First time he's led with that polling company in that state since July.

Better news for Harris with a tied poll in North Carolina, albeit the fieldwork was completed 12 days ago, so might not matter much.

Republicans also coming in with 'unprecedented' early vote numbers in Nevada.

"Monday's numbers gave another large boost to Republicans, increasing their statewide ballot lead over Democrats to 40,000, or 5.7 percent. This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Dangerous to speculate, of course, and never take these things for granted, but if Trump wins Nevada (which would be a first for the Republicans since 2004) it would be very difficult to see Arizona going blue. To be fair, it's already slightly difficult with the polling numbers.

Might also indicate a wider national picture of high Republican enthusiasm + low Democrat enthusiasm, leading into the polls understating Trump again (leading to a big victory); or it could indicate something unusual in more Republicans voting early.

Overall, things looking good for Trump in all seven swing states, and it's becoming harder to make a case for Harris, but it does still remain a close race.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can see that Harris is trying to reach new voters - especially trying to prise away Republican voters who must wonder what's happened to their party. But someone's going to have to explain to me how Trump's rally last night was anything other than an extreme shrinking back to the MAGA base. Red meat for true believers everywhere you look - but how was that meant to broaden his appeal?

It was a rally that generated national headlines and reach. From the Silver Bulletin:"today and yesterday are the top days of Google search traffic for Trump since the second assassination attempt against him in September. "

I do think it was a push to rack up the enthusiasm in one of the most populous states and make a step towards winning the popular vote.

You're confusing attention for favourability. Trump does it himself when he talks about how many people tuned in to watch this or that press conference. He assumes that everyone who watched did so because they like him.

And I don't doubt that they were trying to 'rack up the enthusiasm' - but amongst who? That was my point.

Not confusing the two at all. Trump needs attention and wants to dominate the news cycle. He's being vastly outspent, as in the last two elections, so goes for these ostentatious rallies to grab the headlines (though I think this was the most ostentatious).

He's trying to rack up the enthusiasm amongst Republicans in New York, a place where turnout is stifled because it's not a battleground state, but also more generally around Trump leaners who may or may not vote. Trump is also in the unusual position of (narrowly) leading in the polls, something that wasn't the case in 2016/2020, so he may be trying to avoid complacency amongst his voters.

I still say you're confusing the two, or if you're not, you've missed my original point. It's not about how much noise Trump is making, it's about how the noise he's making is meant to change people's opinion of him for the better i.e. broadening his appeal. I can't see how the rally on the weekend was aimed at anyone other than those who already like him.

There's a difference between good attention and bad attention. Just because more people are talking about him since the weekend doesn't mean what they're saying is complimentary.

I see Bannon has just been released from jail after serving a 4 month sentence for defying a subpoena in the congressional investigation into the US Capitol attack.

“The four months in federal prison not only didn’t break me, it empowered me,” Bannon said. “I am more energised and more focused than I’ve ever been in my entire life.”

The timing suits him. I imagine he'll have Pelosi in his sights for some retribution; especially if Trump gets up next week. It never ends does it?

Duty281 wrote:Dangerous to speculate, of course, and never take these things for granted, but if Trump wins Nevada (which would be a first for the Republicans since 2004) it would be very difficult to see Arizona going blue. To be fair, it's already slightly difficult with the polling numbers.

Might also indicate a wider national picture of high Republican enthusiasm + low Democrat enthusiasm, leading into the polls understating Trump again (leading to a big victory); or it could indicate something unusual in more Republicans voting early.

Overall, things looking good for Trump in all seven swing states, and it's becoming harder to make a case for Harris, but it does still remain a close race.

There's a lot of statistical coin flips that could go either way all over the place, and there's also some suggestions that Trump has changed the Republican voter coalition to the point that some assumptions might prove to be outdated (so we could get some unexpected surprises). For instance, there's a fairly plausible route for him to win the popular vote but lose the election (which I'm sure would go down well...).

Lowlandbrit wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Dangerous to speculate, of course, and never take these things for granted, but if Trump wins Nevada (which would be a first for the Republicans since 2004) it would be very difficult to see Arizona going blue. To be fair, it's already slightly difficult with the polling numbers.

Might also indicate a wider national picture of high Republican enthusiasm + low Democrat enthusiasm, leading into the polls understating Trump again (leading to a big victory); or it could indicate something unusual in more Republicans voting early.

Overall, things looking good for Trump in all seven swing states, and it's becoming harder to make a case for Harris, but it does still remain a close race.

There's a lot of statistical coin flips that could go either way all over the place, and there's also some suggestions that Trump has changed the Republican voter coalition to the point that some assumptions might prove to be outdated (so we could get some unexpected surprises). For instance, there's a fairly plausible route for him to win the popular vote but lose the election (which I'm sure would go down well...).

There has been more talk of Trump winning the popular vote, but losing the EC, which would be hilarious. I think talk has increased in this area because of the national polls getting tighter (Harris' lead just 1.4% on RCP's polling average), but the state polls also remaining close. It still remains a quite outlandish proposition though.

Bit better news in the polls for Harris.

Susquehanna showed her five points ahead in Michigan, and CNN showed a 1% advantage in Arizona. CNN then went a bit wild, showing  outliers of a 5% lead for Harris in Michigan (maybe not too much of an outlier) and 6% in Wisconsin, but also, weirdly a tie in Pennsylvania. Marquette came through with a 1% lead for Harris in Wisconsin.

There were further ties in Pennsylvania with Susquehanna + Monmouth and in Michigan with Suffolk.

Trump was shown to be narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania with Quinnipiac, and Atlas Intel (not a polling company that looks credible but is highly rated) showed Trump ahead in six of the seven swing states, losing out in only NC.

Arizona's early turnout is nearly half of the total turnout in 2020, with the Republicans appearing to have a good edge in the numbers. Neighbouring Nevada's early turnout has gone beyond half of the total turnout in 2020, with the Republicans appearing to be in the lead and turning up very good numbers. It's difficult to see Trump losing those two as things stand.

Georgia's early turnout has eclipsed two thirds of the total turnout in 2020, with the Republicans apparently edging it and looking tough to beat. It might just show that Republicans are more keen to vote early than previous elections, or it could indicate another astonishing turnout (turnout in 2020 was the highest ever in raw number across the USA).

North Carolina's early turnout is 60% of the total turnout in 2020. Republicans doing fractionally better than at the same stage in 2020, but it is appearing to be the close battle the polls think it will be.

Meanwhile Pennsylvania's early turnout isn't even a quarter of the total numbers in 2020, and the Democrats are appearing to do worse here with early numbers than in 2020, and the relatively low early turnout indicates there's a big wave to come on election day. Such a wave is normally red, so I think they can be optimistic here.

Michigan's early turnout is nearly 2/5ths of 2020, so while there is plenty left to vote, the early numbers are so far stronger for the Democrats than four years ago. That bodes well for them.

Wisconsin's early numbers at about a third of 2020, so a similar story, but they appear a lot stronger for the Democrats than four years ago, however there is a much bigger independent registered vote than last time, shrouding it in some mystery.

Plenty of time left, but if I had to predict now, I'd say Trump will win Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, NC and Pennsylvania, with Harris taking Michigan and Wisconsin. But it is so finely balanced! Trump's position is beginning to look solid in Arizona and Nevada and Georgia, though Georgia was overstated for him last time. Not seeing much potential for upsets outside of those states.

I've found your polling updates very handy Duty, it's easy to miss some of them.

There's something very familiar about Trump alleging fraud in Pennsylvania. It doesn't scream 'I'm on track to win this state'.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I've found your polling updates very handy Duty, it's easy to miss some of them.

There's something very familiar about Trump alleging fraud in Pennsylvania. It doesn't scream 'I'm on track to win this state'.

It seems very different to 2020 though, Lucky.

Apparently the majority of the thousands in the polling queues who were turned away at the cut-off time were Republicans (judging from the caps and paraphernalia).
So Trump has scored a win there with the judge agreeing with him that they have a right to cast their vote that same day and the polling centres have to stay open until the queues are cleared. How they manage that though is anyone's guess.

Also think that it's different to 2020 when the Dems were more energised and encouraged to vote early compared to the Republicans, who were told to vote on election day only. This time it appears to be the other way round. Someone said (forget who... but Duty has also touched on it above) when the Democrats 'smell blood' they come out to vote early (as in 2020) but the same now can be said about the Republicans... who seem to be encouraged to not make that same mistake again.

This voting behaviour could also affect the outcome of the popular vote too. It will be interesting to see the actual voting numbers on the day compared to the early voting numbers leading up to next Tuesday. I note this is an increasing trend across the western world. Used to be around 15% (from memory) a decade ago; then c. 25-30% say 5 years ago (in Oz) but now it can be up to 40-50%... sometimes even more (50-60%) who will get it over and done with early to avoid the queues on election day.

Thing is... those queues have now shifted to the week/s before the actual polling day.

Seems to me anyone claiming they can predict this election result is kidding themselves. Polls are all over the place : and they've been swinging around so much you have to wonder if many of those polled aren't getting so bored of the whole business they are giving false answers to the pollsters

Obviously all the Trump fans are going to come out in force , early or on the day : there has never been any chance of swaying them . And that is a big number. Equally the dedicated Dems and those who just can't stand Trump are also going to be counted. But the election in all those contested States is going to be decided by the uncommitted and the relatively uninterested (as most elections everywhere are). And it is anyone's guess how many of them will (a) vote for either candidate (b) vote for a third option : or (c) not bother to vote at all.

Lot of conjecture about the effect of the Middle East conflict on a large voting contingent of Palestinian ancestry. Can understand why many might be somewhat unhappy with the Biden administration over this issue ; but hard to see this translating into actual support for Trump given his past plans , surely ?  Trying to ban Muslim immigrants ? Encouraging Netanyahu in West Bank settlements ? Jerusalem as Israeli capital ? Hard to see how his presidency would be better for Palestine... Main problem I see there for Harris is if a large number of them choose not to vote.

Similarly with Latinos. Hasn't Trump made enough comments that demonstrate his attitude towards them fairly obvious ? And sharing a stage with racist comedians might not be a vote winner. Unless a lot of them have adopted the position "well we are all settled nicely here , let's pull up the drawbridge now so no more of our lot get in" (admittedly something some immigrants in various countries have been known to do ). But again , there is no way to be sure of the numbers turning out for either side.

Ah well it will all be over in another week or so - as long as they can get enough votes counted so that we are just left with a (hopefully soundly defeated ) Trump ranting and launching fruitless law suits... Don't like to think about the consequences if he somehow gets installed for another shot at indulging his narcissistic fantasies... But I have no idea what will actually happen on polling day so just keeping fingers crossed.

Trump's back up to 55% win probability with Nate Silver. But this is largely on the back of another favourable set of Atlas Intel polls, which seem unduly favourable to Trump.

And there was some weird polling from Echelon, a bit like the opposite of CNN from a couple of days ago. Echelon showed ties in Michigan and Wisconsin, but then went wild with a 5% Trump lead in Pennsylvania.

Overnight, Marist came in with excellent polls for Harris - 2% leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 3% in Michigan.

CNN also had a 1% lead for Trump in Georgia, but 1% for Harris in NC. If Trump were to lose NC, he'd need Pennsylvania and Nevada to offset it.

Overall, Arizona and Georgia looking good for Trump. Michigan looking good for Harris. Nevada tight, but those early vote numbers definitely favouring Trump. Pennsylvania close but leaning towards Trump. Wisconsin the same but the lean is towards Harris. NC...who knows!

Very close race, just like 2020, only difference is this time everyone is acknowledging it's a very close race!

Setting aside the polls for a moment, and turning to the early voting stats, one thing those stats won't show is the number of registered Republicans who have actually voted for Harris. (It's true that registered Democrats might vote for Trump, but that seems significantly less likely.) Given how many prominent Republicans have come out endorsing Harris and condemning Trump, I'd guess that a significant, and potentially decisive, number of votes you'd previously assume were votes for the Republican candidate will actually have been votes for the Democrat. Which is all very interesting, but it means that even the early voting stats might not be particularly helpful when it comes to predicting the outcome in these states!

There may also be some strong and intelligent women (including their extended families) who say they are voting for Trump but who actually will vote for Harris... or a third party. Or some strong and intelligent women (excluding their extended families) who prefer not to say who they are voting for but who might actually vote for either candidate.

I hope that makes it more clear (or more clearer) for everyone.

Latest New Mexico poll from a good organisation, KOB/Survey USA, showing Harris leading by only 6%, which is approaching margin of error territory. Biden won it by nearly 11% in 2020.

The poll also states that Harris leads with early voters by 40%, but this isn't borne out by the early figures, which show a 48-37-15 Dem/Rep/Ind split in registration for early voters.

Maybe it somewhat vindicates Trump's decision to spend campaign time in New Mexico, which is where he was yesterday. However, NM is only worth 5 EC votes, less than Nevada, so is unlikely to be worth much even if Trump wins it, which is still incredibly unlikely; and even if he did win it, he'd likely be sweeping up the entire set of swing states anyway, making NM a superfluous win.

Nevada and Pennsylvania even in other polls. C'est la vie.

Everyone shook to the roots as a highly rated polling company shows Harris with a 3% lead in...Iowa. Not really on anyone's radar in this election, but if true would surely leave Trump's presidential hopes in tatters. It is a big outlier though, and to calm the waters Emerson revealed a 9% Trump lead in the state.

Atlas Intel also dropped another set of polls, showing Trump leading in all seven swing states, including Nevada by 6%, which replicates a recent Susquehanna poll. Atlas also showing a national vote lead for Trump. I regard their polling, while not impossible, as suspicious, as they flood the average in Trump's favour, while being weirdly highly-rated.

But maybe they're accurate? Not long now.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Setting aside the polls for a moment, and turning to the early voting stats, one thing those stats won't show is the number of registered Republicans who have actually voted for Harris. (It's true that registered Democrats might vote for Trump, but that seems significantly less likely.) Given how many prominent Republicans have come out endorsing Harris and condemning Trump, I'd guess that a significant, and potentially decisive, number of votes you'd previously assume were votes for the Republican candidate will actually have been votes for the Democrat. Which is all very interesting, but it means that even the early voting stats might not be particularly helpful when it comes to predicting the outcome in these states!

This is likely to be small and inconsequential numbers. There's always a tiny number of registered Democrats/Republicans who vote for the other side, but the polling shows it's roughly equal, so will be a minuscule to non existent effect.

Duty281 wrote:Everyone shook to the roots as a highly rated polling company shows Harris with a 3% lead in...Iowa. Not really on anyone's radar in this election, but if true would surely leave Trump's presidential hopes in tatters. It is a big outlier though, and to calm the waters Emerson revealed a 9% Trump lead in the state.

Atlas Intel also dropped another set of polls, showing Trump leading in all seven swing states, including Nevada by 6%, which replicates a recent Susquehanna poll. Atlas also showing a national vote lead for Trump. I regard their polling, while not impossible, as suspicious, as they flood the average in Trump's favour, while being weirdly highly-rated.

But maybe they're accurate? Not long now.

Saw the reaction to that Iowa poll dropping - whilst very accurate in the past, think it reflects that nobody really knows what is going to happen come Tuesday/this week.

Don't think the Trump campaign in these last few weeks has been particularly well co-ordinated, and has left the door more than ajar for Harris/Dems.

Will all be over soon. Thank goodness. Personally, I'm hoping for Trump winning the popular vote, but getting done over by the EC system allowing Harris to be the next President. That would be hilarious.

Kinda suspect the polls are now over balancing to trump

Final prediction/thoughts then:

Arizona - Trump strong favourite. Really difficult to see beyond Trump in Arizona. FiveThirtyEight's, RCP's and Silver Bulletin's polling average all puts Trump 2.6% ahead.

You have to go back nearly two weeks to find the last Democrat lead here. It's been a sea of red. Atlas' last poll put Trump 7% ahead; InsiderAdvantage 3% ahead; NYT/Siena 4% ahead. Even the last Morning Consult poll, a polling company with blue bias, could only find a tie.

Added to that, the early vote figures indicate a decent early lead for Trump in the state. About 2/3rds have already voted, relative to the 2020 turnout.

I would be surprised if Trump lost Arizona. He's a 3/10 favourite here with Bet365.

Nevada - Trump solid favourite. Didn't quite expect this, it's not gone red since 2004, but the early indications are promising for Trump.

Nevada is the state where you can read into the early numbers more than any other state. With around 80% already voting, Trump has a decent lead, thanks to a heavy rural turnout. Ralston is of the view that if the overall turnout is around what is expected, he can't see how Harris will win the state; if the turnout is greater than expected, however, Harris has a chance.

Polling has been inconsistent and a little wild, but Trump retains very narrow favourability on the three polling averages. Atlas Intel and SusqueHanna finding 6% Trump leads; NYT/Siena with a 3% Harris lead and Emerson with 1%.

This is, on paper, the least important swing state, but it could prove to be pivotal. If Trump wins Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Harris wins North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin, then Nevada will actually decide the race...and Nevada could take a week to count everything. What larks.

I think Trump's favourite here, but by no means set in stone. It's 4/6 for Trump here; 6/5 for Harris.

Georgia - Trump solid favourite. My hesitancy here is that Georgia was the one place in 2020 where Trump was actually overstated, but indications are he's on course to win this state.

Trump has a lead in the three polling averages here, between 1% and 2%, so slightly greater than Nevada. Polling leads have been consistent for Trump in this state, but all by small margins of 1%-2%, which is of course in margin for error territory. But it has been consistent 1%-2% across a range of polling companies - Atlas, YouGov, Redfield, Morning Consult, Trafalgar. NYT/Siena did come up with a 1% Harris lead very recently, just to throw further doubt in!

Early numbers look good for Trump. He appears to have a lead, with four million having already voted (five million voted in Georgia in 2020). Trump is likely, based on polling data, to have an advantage of on the day voters also.

Same as Nevada, really, Trump's favourite, but I wouldn't put the house on it. Odds here are more favourable for Trump though - he's 4/9, Harris 7/4.

North Carolina - Trump narrow favourite. Well, isn't this strange? North Carolina, pretty comfortable for Trump in 2016, got a bit tighter in 2020, now it looks as though it may be nicked by Harris.

Trump leads in all three polling averages here, but by a tighter margin than Georgia. And, similar to Georgia, it's been consistent red leads of a small nature, with the exception of NYT/Siena, which came through with a 2% Harris lead.

Can't really read much into the early numbers in this state, except to say it looks marginally better for Trump at this stage than it did four years ago. About 75% have already voted, relative to 2020 turnout.

I think this one's really tight, and while I think Trump will triumph, it's currently looking tighter than Nevada/Georgia, so I wouldn't even raise an eyebrow if Harris won here. Trump's 8/15 here, Harris 6/4.

Pennsylvania - Harris narrow favourite. This could be the one. Trump needs at least one of the three rust belt states to triumph, and this is perhaps his most likely. Narrowly won by Trump in 2016, narrowly lost by Trump in 2020, and considered to be the most likely tipping point state.

Technically, Trump leads in all three polling averages in this state. Realistically, it's too close to call, as those leads are all between 0.1% and 0.4%! In terms of the polls, it's pick your poll time. Maybe you like Atlas? 2% Trump lead. Emerson? 1% Trump lead. Washington Post? 1% Harris lead. Marist? 2% Harris lead. Muhlenberg? 2% Harris lead. NYT/Siena, which appears to have a little blue lean, shows a tie, but don't worry, because Redfield, which has a little red lean, also shows a tie!

Early numbers are a fair bit weaker for the Democrats than four years ago, with only about 25% turnout relative to 2020, so a lot going to vote on the day. When I say early numbers are a fair bit weaker for the Democrats, they do still have a significant advantage in the early numbers, and it's a case of whether a red wave comes out on Tuesday to flip it Trump's way.

I'm leaning towards Harris because too many red biased polls have inflated Trump's polling average to ghastly proportions, so I think Harris is actually ahead in those terms; Harris has, in cricket terms, batted first and already put a good lead on the board; and Marist's poll, which showed Harris 2% up, really nailed the early numbers.

But, it's super, super close, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump did win this state. But definitely leaning towards Harris. Harris is 11/10, Trump 8/11.

Michigan - Harris narrow favourite. Looking good for Harris here.

This is one state where Harris leads in the three polling averages, but only by around 1% in all of them, so nothing watertight. Trump leads in this state have been a bit sparse. Atlas and Trafalgar (Red bias) the only ones to find leads recently. Emerson with 2% for Harris, Marist and YouGov with 3%, Quinnipiac with 4% and Susquehanna with 5%. Fox and NYT/Siena with ties, however.

Where I'm seeing it as tight is that the early vote numbers, about 60% of the 2020 total, are closer than expected. The Democrats appear to have a small lead, but they were projected to have a much bigger lead, and it is anticipated that many Republicans will be coming out on Tuesday (to vote).

So, tipping Harris because of her polling advantage, but those early vote numbers are a concern from her perspective, and consequently there's no shock here if Trump wins. Harris a solid 1/2 favourite, Trump 13/8.

Wisconsin - Harris narrow favourite. Another close one.

Harris has a tiny lead in all three polling averages, nothing greater than a percent. And this one is thrown into further doubt because of less polling data. But we have the usual Trump lead through Atlas, where would we be without it? A tie from Emerson. And 2% leads for Harris in NYT/Siena and Marist giving her the narrow advantage. But that's all it is.

Early vote data looking solid for the Democrats, but I wouldn't go any further than that due to the heavy independent presence. Maybe just under half, relative to 2020, have already voted.

Another close one. Trump has dramatically outperformed the polls here in 2016 and 2020, and both times it was decided by less than 1%, and I wouldn't bet against it happening again! Harris 4/7; Trump 11/8.

Overall, that leads to a score of 270-268 Harris, but four of those states are wafer thin. I give Harris narrow favouritism in all three rust belt states, but I would be surprised if she won all three, as the margins are so close (barring polling error!). Trump is in an arguably better position on the battleground map, because Arizona and Georgia and Nevada are looking good for him, while Harris has nothing that looks as strong for her currently.

I think I'll carry a presumption that Trump wins Arizona and Georgia, and then it'll come down to the magic four states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And they are all so very, very close. Trump can close it out if he just wins Pennsylvania, provided he also wins Nevada. He cannot get over the line if he wins any of the other three states + Nevada, because they don't carry enough EC votes (NC + Nevada = 268; Michigan + Nevada = 267; Wisconsin + Nevada = 262).

Failing to win Nevada means Trump will need to win two of these magic four states, 50% of these wafer thin battles, in order to return to the White House, while Harris will need to win three.

Because of that, Trump is my very, very, very, very, very narrow favourite to win the election. I think Trump's order of likelihood, from most to least, in the magic four is North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Polling error? Well, the thing that perturbs me most about the polls is the very weird national polling. Trump lost the national vote to Clinton by 2.1% and won the EC by around 90k votes. Trump then lost the national vote to Biden by 4.5% and lost the EC by around 40k votes.

But now the polls are telling us that Harris's popular vote lead is around 1% on average, with many polls tied, and a fair few even saying that Trump will win the popular vote and become the first Republican to do so since Dubya in 2004. Yet, at the same time, the polls are forecasting a race that is going to be as tight as 2020.

To me, the two things don't marry up, unless Trump is really running up the totals in populous blue states like California and New York. So I'm thinking that there's either going to be a slight polling underestimate of Harris's national lead, which will tie in with the close swing state polls, and we'll see Harris win the popular vote by at least 2% and the EC could go either way (most likely scenario); OR the national polls are roughly on point, in which case Trump's polling in the swing states has been underestimated, and we'll see Harris' national vote lead be around a 1% win or fewer and Trump crushes the EC, sweeping up all the battleground states and maybe pinching something like NH/Minnesota/NM/Virginia.

Either way, I really struggle to see Trump winning the popular vote, unless Democrat turnout is on the floor. And while it's fair to say Harris isn't really galvanising her base, I would have thought the prospect of four more years of Trump would be enough to turn out the blue.

And, of course, there could be a polling error in Harris' favour. If that happens, she should easily take all seven battleground states and maybe pinch something like Texas, Florida, Ohio or...Iowa?

Other states? Unlikely to see any shocks in the other 43 states. That's why they're shocks, of course, we don't see 'em coming. But the only indication of an earthquake was that poll from Iowa, which was just one data point and not followed up. If I had to pick, the most likely Republican shock win will be in Virginia, and the most likely Democrat shock win will be in Alaska.

Aftermath? Very ugly, whoever wins. If it's as tight as everything suggests, the final result may not be known for days, perhaps weeks, which will allow rumours to circulate. I expect Trump to claim victory no matter what, and allege fraud if he loses, but hopefully in a position of less power will mitigate the worst effects. Hopefully. If Trump wins, I expect rioting in many cities.

It should be the end of Trump's political career if he loses. His cult like grip on the Republican party ensured he clung on to the nomination, but I'm not sure he can survive two consecutive defeats, with more and more young Republicans coming through. And, of course, Trump is nearly 80 and has nearly lost whatever sanity he had in the first place. There surely won't be any place for him to contest 2028, at which point he will be 82. If he wins, it's doubtful he'll see out a full four years, but maybe he'll remain the figurehead until the end of his term, as Biden is currently doing.

Bets I like. 6/4 Trump wins the EC and loses the popular vote. 11/8 on Trump to win Wisconsin. 13/8 on Trump to win Michigan. 11/10 on Harris to win Pennsylvania. 6/4 on Harris to win North Carolina.

I didn't read all of that. What's the summary? You're very sensible. Trump will win Arizona and Georgia, most probably. He then needs to win at least two of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to win the race. These four are all very close battles. Or he can win Nevada + Pennsylvania, which would also win the race. Fail to do either of those and it's over. Fail to win Arizona and Georgia and it's over. A polling error is more likely to occur in Trump's favour.

I'll be happy to not see the US election in the news day after day, week after week, month after months. I expect the upcoming civil war to be much more interesting.

GSC wrote:Kinda suspect the polls are now over balancing to trump

Not surprised given his penchant for junk food. He was also a bit wobbly in his run up.

It's done and dusted the little enthusiasm there is, is with Harris....Women are with Harris, and Iowa looking crap for Trump when he beat Biden by 8 points there is more than concerting for flat top..

The early voting is with Harris. He's cooked and so are the Palestinians. Only interesting thing left is to see how many votes Dr Stein gets. The only one with integrity.

I along with probably most people in Europe still can't understand how anyone can vote for Trump, aside from all the court cases, his comments on women etc the rhetoric he has used during the campaign is astonishing. Literally hate speech and pretty undisguised calls for attacks on Harris. Incredible.

I honestly fear for safety of world should he get elected.

Duty281 wrote:
Bets I like. 6/4 Trump wins the EC and loses the popular vote. 11/8 on Trump to win Wisconsin. 13/8 on Trump to win Michigan. 11/10 on Harris to win Pennsylvania. 6/4 on Harris to win North Carolina.

Followed you in on these Duty - like the 6/4 on Trump wins the EC but loses popular vote in particular.

Still don't buy the enthusiasm for Trump. He won't win the popular vote for certain, then it becomes a game of getting the EC votes. But he still needs to get people to vote for him who didn't last time.

We know from Labour under Corbyn that enthusiasm from the committed core does not translate into the popular vote. We also know that pollsters tweak results to account for who participates in the polls, previous results and whatever, which benefits the felon because he's outperformed polls in the past.

Anyway it's going to be chaos but hopefully orange makeup man is done

mountain man wrote:I along with probably most people in Europe still can't understand how anyone can vote for Trump, aside from all the court cases, his comments on women etc the rhetoric he has used during the campaign is astonishing. Literally hate speech and pretty undisguised calls for attacks on Harris. Incredible.

I honestly fear for safety of world should he get elected.

A not insignificant number of people in this country voted for Farages company, this shouldnt shock anyone.

Yeah but Farage and Reform were never going to win election whereas Trump probably/possibly will. Huge difference in % population who voted Reform as opposed to those voting Republican.