2024 US Presidential Election

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

If Kamala Harris loses then our emotive commentators need to recognise she was the anti-Democratic Candidate. She didn't win the Primary Election. Biden won only to be forced out later. Trump despite being labelled a threat to democracy won his primary.

Duty281 wrote:

lostinwales wrote:Still don't buy the enthusiasm for Trump. He won't win the popular vote for certain, then it becomes a game of getting the EC votes. But he still needs to get people to vote for him who didn't last time.  

We know from Labour under Corbyn that enthusiasm from the committed core does not translate into the popular vote. We also know that pollsters tweak results to account for who participates in the polls, previous results and whatever, which benefits the felon because he's outperformed polls in the past.

Anyway it's going to be chaos but hopefully orange makeup man is done

He doesn't, first of all. If Democrat turnout is depressed to 2016 levels, and Trump's turnout stays at 2020 levels, or just below, then Trump wins.

But I don't see it as difficult that Trump does win new voters. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump increased his vote by 11 million in raw terms, or 0.7% in percentage terms, after a troubled last year of his Presidency. And for almost the last four years he hasn't been President, and that's only going to boost him because the Biden Presidency has been average at best, and is losing on the topic of the economy.

I definitely wouldn't rule Trump out from winning the popular vote, either. It's very unlikely, but a number of reputable polling companies have shown ties or even Trump ahead.

This appears to have happened. Democrats got 65.8 million in 2016, 81.2 million in 2020, now down to 60.4 million in 2024. That's a live figure, I think it'll end up around the 2016 figure, with half of California to announce. Meanwhile Trump's popular vote figure appears to be right between his 2016 and 2020 tally.

I am surprised at Trump winning the popular vote (as looks highly likely). I didn't take the polls highly seriously in that regard and I should have done.

Overall turnout appears to have landed between 2016 and 2020.

alfie wrote:Oh I don't deny the hip pocket was the major factor , PJ  - it usually is.  Just expressing surprise at the suggestion that more whites voted for Harris as that seems unlikely on the overall figures.

As you say , it doesn't matter .  But I wish I could be as relaxed as you are about four years of Trump.  Have a very bad feeling about it on a number of fronts.

Relax alfie. Don't worry about anything. Musk has probably already got someone else to invent a new laser gun to protect us all.

If Trump wins I wonder how many more assassination attempts we are going to get. Even in this comments section the emotion runs high in some.

No name Bertie wrote:If Trump wins I wonder how many more assassination attempts we are going to get.  Even in this comments section the emotion runs high in some.

JD Vance will probably be considering where to place a full-sized bust of Jed Clampett in the Oval Office.

An end to the keys nonsense as well. That's great.

Wisconsin + Pennsylvania + the race should be called now. There's about 5% of the vote left in Pennsylvania and Trump leads by 3%; 10% of the vote left in Wisconsin and Trump leads by 4%. There's no coming back.

Trump won some states by terrific margins. Texas by 15%. Florida by 13%. Ohio by 11%. Iowa by 14%. Stupendous margins and barely believable. New York he's only losing by 11% v 23% in 2020. He's really run up the margins in those non battleground states, but won the battleground states by unspectacular, but solid, lengths.

I think that Kamala Harris not coming through the primary election is key.

Pennsylvania called. Just call Wisconsin and get it over with.

Looks like Trump has won Nevada also. 7% lead with 7% of the vote left. That early vote sealed it. That can be called too. It looks as though he'll hold on in Michigan too.

Just Arizona for the battleground sweep and it looks as though he'll get it. He might run Minnesota close as well. Actually, no, he shouldn't.

No name Bertie wrote:If Kamala Harris loses then our emotive commentators need to recognise she was the anti-Democratic Candidate.   She didn't win the Primary Election.   Biden won only to be forced out later.  Trump despite being labelled a threat to democracy won his primary.

And despite being a felon and a r***ist. America the great.

Trump is going to win and the world will lose. I imagine Zelensky heart sinking at this, Putin be rubbing his bloody hands in glee.

Good luck USA, you voted him in now deal with it.

To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

Michigan has a 323k Trump lead, with about 920k votes left. It's very unlikely for Harris to overcome that deficit.

Wisconsin is over, but hasn't been called. Trump has a narrow advantage in Arizona, with about half the vote left, and he should be fine. I think Nevada should be called, if over 90% of the vote has been counted.

Trump trails by 26k in New Hampshire, with about 130k votes left. Harris should hold on here, but no guarantees.

Trump's popular vote, currently 69.2, might go close to his 2020 high of 74.23 million, as about half of California still needs to count.

Don't understand why they're holding off confirming what has been known for a while.

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

You need to change your handle to No Brain Bertie.

One positive, albeit I wouldn't put it past Trump to attempt to alter the Constitution on this, is that the World has to endure him for only another four years. Suggest everyone battens down hatches, delays etc, until the next time. That said, suspect the GOP will think this is a winning formula (why wouldn't they?), which means even if not Trump in four years time, everyone will likely have to put up with more of the same rubbish for some while.

The fact the GOP looks like they'll have the Senate and House as well is another worry.

Like it or not, most of those voting have bought into the nonsense peddled. Enjoy, everyone...

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

The Democrats have had a black President, a female candidate and a black female candidate. Can you see who the racists are now?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:If Kamala Harris loses then our emotive commentators need to recognise she was the anti-Democratic Candidate.   She didn't win the Primary Election.   Biden won only to be forced out later.  Trump despite being labelled a threat to democracy won his primary.

And despite being a felon and a r***ist. America the great.

What nonsense, he's not a realist.

Honestly don't think it really changes much internationally. Not that likely to pull support for Ukraine considering the wider implications of losing ties with Europe and having to get closer to Russia/Ukraine imo.

Domestically he has more rhetoric than ideas but much like his last term he inherits an improving economy so if he again achieves little of note, it probably still reflects well

Dems should probably learn that america would rather elect a criminal/sex offender than a woman by now

Hopefully Melania will go real hard on cybercrime again.

GSC wrote:Dems should probably learn that america would rather elect a criminal/sex offender than a woman by now

That's certainly one factor. The other is that they love money probably more than any other nation and if they think a criminal/sex offender can get them more money in their pockets then that's who they will vote for, morality be damned. Somewhere in the Bible it says that the love of money is the root of all evil, and whilst not religious in any way I don't disagree with that.

GSC wrote:...much like his last term he inherits an improving economy so if he again achieves little of note, it probably still reflects well

Funny that, isn't it? GOP break the economy/enrich their mates etc, Dems take over and deliver the bad tasting medicine, GOP paint them as 'nasty' etc, economy improves towards end of Dems' term, GOP get back in and get all the credit. Almost like Dubya and Obama all over again....

GSC wrote:Dems should probably learn that america would rather elect a criminal/sex offender than a woman by now

Should also have probably not gone with a bloke who clearly could not run again before switching him out at the 11th hour for a VP that the party/him had barely promoted for his entire presidency. Let alone that VP being a black woman (hardly a candidate the yanks are gonna go for en masse!)

Duty - looks like our 6/4 bet on Kamala to win the popular vote, Trump the EC will come up well short. Wonder what odds on Trump sweeping both were!

Trump will now become even more vindictive, he'll go after those perceived to have wronged him. He'll get any charges against him quashed, likely try and change Constitution to see if he can run again.


Yep, democracy in action.

CNN taking the p!ss as they load up a projection, maximise the anticipation...then it's NJ going for Harris.

Just call Wisconsin and call the race over. Should have been done hours ago.

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:

GSC wrote:Dems should probably learn that america would rather elect a criminal/sex offender than a woman by now

Should also have probably not gone with a bloke who clearly could not run again before switching him out at the 11th hour for a VP that the party/him had barely promoted for his entire presidency. Let alone that VP being a black woman (hardly a candidate the yanks are gonna go for en masse!)

Duty - looks like our 6/4 bet on Kamala to win the popular vote, Trump the EC will come up well short. Wonder what odds on Trump sweeping both were!

Aye, shocking reversal!

Duty281 wrote:

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:

GSC wrote:Dems should probably learn that america would rather elect a criminal/sex offender than a woman by now

Should also have probably not gone with a bloke who clearly could not run again before switching him out at the 11th hour for a VP that the party/him had barely promoted for his entire presidency. Let alone that VP being a black woman (hardly a candidate the yanks are gonna go for en masse!)

Duty - looks like our 6/4 bet on Kamala to win the popular vote, Trump the EC will come up well short. Wonder what odds on Trump sweeping both were!

Aye, shocking reversal!

You guys should have been here yesterday.
My horse came in at $81... or 41 quid. Only put a tenner on it... and $10 on 2 others with (slightly shorter) long odds. Third year in a row I picked the winner.
Not bad for a non-gambler like me.

But Mum did better. She got 1st and 3rd amongst her table of pals. Used to be 4 tables of 4 but there have been quite a few permanent scratchings in recent years.

mountain man wrote:Trump will now become even more vindictive, he'll go after those perceived to have wronged him. He'll get any charges against him quashed, likely try and change Constitution to see if he can run again.


Yep, democracy in action.

Sentencing in 3 weeks I think. No way any judge will give jail time - too much risk of rioting if they did.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

mountain man wrote:Trump will now become even more vindictive, he'll go after those perceived to have wronged him. He'll get any charges against him quashed, likely try and change Constitution to see if he can run again.


Yep, democracy in action.

Sentencing in 3 weeks I think. No way any judge will give jail time - too much risk of rioting if they did.

Wouldn't surprise me if Bannon pretends to 'make up' with Pelosi and slips some horse tranquiliser into her whisky sour either. Sorry... tranquilizer.

Think you guys are giving Trump too much credit. He didn't really do much his first term when he was fully cognitive. Vance is probably eyeing his own Kamala on Biden strategy

You really think Trump would step down? Never in a million years. Not a hope.

If theres a massive swing, and Harris somehow ends up winning the remaining states, how quickly would the US descend into chaos?

GSC wrote:Think you guys are giving Trump too much credit. He didn't really do much his first term when he was fully cognitive. Vance is probably eyeing his own Kamala on Biden strategy

I think Trump knows more now about the mechanisms of power, how government operates, and where to appoint people etc. His first term he was literally learning on the job reducing his effectiveness. He'll be better prepared this time.

Agree about Vance. He never liked Trump originally, but pivoted to supporting him and is now in a dream place to assume the Presidency should Trump's health fail and/or set up a 2028 bid.

It was over five and a half hours ago, but the race is now officially over as Wisconsin is called for Trump.

First President to have non consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland.

Alaska also comes in for Trump.

Michigan might be a tight finish, but Trump is likely to hold on, which will be a clear sweep of the rust belt. Maine and NH will go into Harris' column.

Nevada is almost certainly red. Arizona most probably red. Will leave Trump with a 311-227 victory, bigger than his 2016 win. The popular vote on top makes this the Republican party's most decisive win since 1988.

Harris' political career is in tatters. This will be her legacy. Unable to galvanise anything beyond a low, miserable Democrat turnout, leading to a crushing defeat, a second Trump Presidency, and a huge mandate for the Republican party for at least the next two years. It's worse than Clinton's defeat.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

The Democrats have had a black President, a female candidate and a black female candidate. Can you see who the racists are now?

Tories and Labour....

Soul Requiem wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

The Democrats have had a black President, a female candidate and a black female candidate. Can you see who the racists are now?

Tories and Labour....

Yeah that was my point. Bertie implied that Labour's chosen leaders meant they were racist compared to the Tories but did not make the same implication about the Republicans when compared to the Democrats.

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

I don't think you should have the right to vote.

Never had much street cred and now I've got none at all...

Well done to Duty and Oliie for calling it better than I did..Good work with the polling data that was relentlessly put on here that was of interest as well.

I do think Harris lost this election rather than Trump winning it..

Looking like Black working class men stayed at home in sizeable numbers as they did in 2016. All when and good spending a billion calling someone a Pervert and Nazi but it doesn't help these people in their struggles...

So Democrats......Don't blame the voters this time and instead reflect on why these voting blocs aren't coming out. Stop patronising and start energising.

Or don't learn and struggle.....

Harris may be considered to have 'lost' this one, but I think many might live to regret this outcome. We'll see, I guess.

Certainly, it illustrates what the majority priorities are in the U.S., whether or not Trump ever delivers (or really intends to deliver) on them.

Harris was a weak candidiate for sure, didn't inspire etc but when you consider what Trump is like then it's still amazing he won.
What's laughable, well it would be if not so consequential is the schtick he has about "doing it for the people" whereas it's blindingly obvious he only cares about himself.

superflyweight wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

I don't think you should have the right to vote.  

Typical boorish example of our entitled leisure classes gaslighting the poorer classes with their authoritarian dictatorship of the mind. Proper General Melchett wannabees filled with hate for anyone that has a slightly varied opinion to themselves only interested in carving out their own safe spaces of the like minded. No discussion, no nuance, they profit while everyone else pays for it. Pushing narratives continually and revealing their character with their constant patronizing and condescending personal attacks on real people that live among them.

No name Bertie wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

I don't think you should have the right to vote.  

Typical boorish example of our entitled leisure classes gaslighting the poorer classes with their authoritarian dictatorship of the mind.   Proper General Melchett wannabees filled with hate for anyone that has a slightly varied opinion to themselves only interested in carving out their own safe spaces of the like minded.  No discussion, no nuance, they profit while everyone else pays for it.   Pushing narratives continually and revealing their character with their constant patronizing and condescending personal attacks on real people that live among them.

No name Bertie wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:To avoid four years of the pathetic whines of the entitled leisure classes telling the poorer classes how they are supposed to think would have been one benefit of a Kamala Harris victory.

I don't think you should have the right to vote.  

Typical boorish example of our entitled leisure classes gaslighting the poorer classes with their authoritarian dictatorship of the mind.   Proper General Melchett wannabees filled with hate for anyone that has a slightly varied opinion to themselves only interested in carving out their own safe spaces of the like minded.  No discussion, no nuance, they profit while everyone else pays for it.   Pushing narratives continually and revealing their character with their constant patronizing and condescending personal attacks on real people that live among them.

To be clear, I'm happy for everyone else to have the right to vote. Except you.

Couple of things that strike me:
- definitely feels like a potential seismic shift in that we could see the Republicans become the broad national working class party, and the Democrats needing to fine tune a targeted approach to maximising results
- whether it sticks (and how easy it's going to be to target) is going to depend a lot on what (who) comes next, because once again Trump has generally performed an awful lot better than his biggest fans. Some Senate races, as of writing:
AZ: Lake 47.7 - 50.4 Gallego (T 52 - 47.2 H)
NV: Brown 47.3 - 47.2 Rosen (T 51.5 - 46.8 H)
NE: Fischer 53.9 - 46.2 Osborn (I) (T 60.2 - 38.5 H)
MN: White 40.5 - 56.3 Klobuchar (T 46.8 - 51.1 H)
OH: Moreno 50.2 - 46.4 Brown (T 55.2 - 43.9 H)

NC Gov: Robinson 40.2 - 54.8 Stein (T 51.1 - 47.7 H)

Michigan called for Trump. He wins by about 2%. Maine should be called soon for Harris, as should Nevada for Trump. That just leaves Arizona, which looks very likely for Trump, but not yet a guarantee.

Trump leads the popular vote by 4.9 million. Unbelievable margin. That may deteriorate a little as late mail in ballots come in, but the story is essentially that Trump maintained near 2020 levels of turnout, while the Democrats sunk well below it, losing at least ten million votes from 2020 (the current count is 14 million lost).

It's borne out in the safe states. Trump winning some of his safe red states by incredible margins, and cutting the gap in numerous safe blue states to narrow levels - something which will have knock on effects for 2028. Yet, the battleground states he won were by respectable margins, nothing crazy or out of the ordinary. It seems as though Democrats had little energy to turn out. Complacency/disinterest in the safe blue/red states, and a lack of numbers in the battlegrounds.

Republicans confirmed to have a majority in the Senate. House of Representatives may take up to a week.

Duty281 wrote:If Trump wins, I expect rioting in many cities.

Why? And when do you expect them to start?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:If Trump wins, I expect rioting in many cities.

Why? And when do you expect them to start?

Because it happened in 2016 after Trump won and I feel the political atmosphere is more volatile now, with Trump literally having to survive assassination attempts during this campaign.

https://metro.co.uk/2016/11/09/rioting-breaks-out-in-the-us-in-reaction-to-donald-trumps-shock-victory-6246293/
https://www.ibtimes.com/donald-trump-elected-president-riots-break-out-university-campuses-after-republicans-2443978

However, as Trump's victory has not been a surprise, and because he won the popular vote which I feel increases his legitimacy, and as people have become also dulled to his presence, and because many have already got through a Trump Presidential term, and because Harris did a good concession speech, I'm hopeful the waters are calmer.

If they do happen, I expect them to kick off at a large scale protest in the aftermath of his win, if such protests are happening again (there were so many in the immediate aftermath of 2016). The majority of these protests will be peaceful, but probably not all.

It also happened when Trump lost in 2020 but for some reason you didn't think it would happen if he lost again.