Forecasts for the Tri Nations...?

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Jul 2011, 2:58 pm

Yep, SH members us Northerners are all that little bit more intrigued in your three way comp this year due to the RWC in September. Not that we don't usually admire from afar, we do, just it is usually such a different spectacle to what we get in the Six nations up here we become overawed.

So for those of you who dont know, here are the historical results since 1995

1996 New Zealand 4 Wins
1997 New Zealand 4 Wins
1998 South Africa 4 Wins
1999 New Zealand 4 Wins
2000 Australia 4 Wins
2001 Australia 4 Wins
2002 New Zealand 4 Wins
2003 New Zealand 4 Wins
2004 South Africa 4 Wins
2005 New Zealand 4 Wins

The competition was expanded in 2006 and sees each of the three nations play each other three times, although the 2007 series reverted to a double round-robin to reduce fixture congestion in a World Cup year.

2006 New Zealand 6 Wins
2007 New Zealand 4 Wins
2008 New Zealand 6 Wins
2009 South Africa 6 Wins
2010 New Zealand 6 Wins

Total Games Played 68

NZ Games won 48
NZ Pints Scored 1841

SA Games won 27
SA Points Scored 1387

Oz Games Won 26
Oz Points Scored 1398

Graham Henry named a 34-man squad, including four players as injury cover, to play Fiji on July 22 and then the Tri-Nations rugby Tests against Australia and South Africa.

Forwards
John Afoa (Auckland), Corey Flynn (Canterbury), Ben Franks (Tasman), Owen Franks (Canterbury), Jarrad Hoeata (Taranaki), Andrew Hore (Taranaki), Jerome Kaino (Auckland), Richie McCaw (captain, Canterbury), Keven Mealamu (Auckland), Liam Messam (Waikato), Kieran Read (Canterbury), Adam Thomson (Otago), Brad Thorn (Canterbury), Samuel Whitelock (Canterbury), Ali Williams (Auckland), Tony Woodcock (North Harbour).

Backs
Daniel Carter (Canterbury), Jimmy Cowan (Southland), Israel Dagg (Hawkes Bay), Andy Ellis (Canterbury), Hosea Gear (Wellington), Zac Guildford (Hawkes Bay), Richard Kahui (Waikato), Mils Muliaina (Waikato), Maa Nonu (Wellington), Colin Slade (Canterbury), Conrad Smith (Wellington), Isaia Toeava (Auckland), Piri Weepu (Wellington), Sonny Bill Williams (Canterbury).

Injury replacements:
Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders), Cory Jane (Hurricanes), Sitiveni Sivivatu (Chiefs) and Ben Smith (Highlanders).

Australia coach Robbie Deans named the following expanded 40-man squad on Sunday for a test match against Samoa and for the southern hemisphere's Tri-Nations competition.

Forwards
Ben Alexander, Ben Daley, Dave Dennis, Rocky Elsom (captain), Saia Faingaa, James Hanson, Scott Higginbotham, Matt Hodgson, James Horwill, Sekope Kepu, Salesi Maafu, Ben McCalman, Stephen Moore, Dean Mumm, Wycliff Palu, David Pocock, Tatafu Polota Nau, Beau Robinson, Benn Robinson, Radike Samo, Nathan Sharpe, Rob Simmons, James Slipper, Sitaleki Timani, Dan Vickerman.

Backs
Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Luke Burgess, Quade Cooper, Rod Davies, Anthony Faingaa, Will Genia, Mark Gerrard, Matt Giteau, Digby Ioane, Pat McCabe, Luke Morahan, James O'Connor, Nick Phipps, Lachie Turner

Peter de Villiers named a 27-man squad Friday for Tri-Nations Tests in Australia and New Zealand this month:

Backs
Gio Aplon, Bjorn Basson, Adrian Jacbos, Elton Jantjies, Jean de Jongh, Patrick Lambie, Charl McLeod, Lwazi Mvovo, Odwa Ndungane, Wynand Olivier, Ruan Pienaar, Morne Steyn

Forwards
Heinrich Brussow, Jean Deysel, Deon Greyling, Alistair Hargreaves, Ashley Johnson, Ryan Kankowski, Werner Kruger, Flip van der Merwe, Johann Muller, Coenie Oosthuizen, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Danie Rossouw, John Smit (capt), Deon Stegmann, Adriaan Strauss

The team of the Tournament in the recent Super 15 as selected by Planet Rugby.com was

15 Kurtley Beale Aus (Waratahs) The 'Tahs 22-year-old backdoor man was a relatively easy pick after remarkable season. Crusaders full-back Israel Dagg was the only other serious contender. What a shame he got injured when he did.

14 Kade Poki NZ (Highlanders) The first of a few tough calls as the Highlanders' flyer ended on a dead heat with Lelia Masaga. But we gave Poki the nod for his part in the Highlanders' outstanding early season charge. Honourable mentions must also go to Sean Maitland, Rod Davies, Rene Ranger, Henry Speight and JP Pietersen.

13 Robbie Freuan NZ (Crusaders) Graham Henry doesn't reckon he's good enough for the All Blacks (at least not yet) but Freuan has been a constant figure in our selections since early March. Some say Sonny Bill Williams makes him look better than he really is...time will tell if he's the real deal. The Stormers' Jaques Fourie was next best.

12 Sonny Bill Williams NZ (Crusaders) A clear winner here. SBW has set a new benchmark for what is possible on attack, leading the offload stats by quite some distance. The All Blacks are spoilt for choice at 12 because Ma'a Nonu had a strong finish to the season and Luke McAlister also got regular mentions.

11 Digby Ioane Aus (Reds) Ok, ok, we'll admit that Queensland's newest breakdancing sensation was picked as a centre in Round Seven. Zac Guildford and Drew Mitchell both made the weekly selection three times but the latter didn't finish the season and neither can boast Ioane's versatility nor his way-cool dance moves...so we bent the rules a little. Go on Digby, get down with your bad self.

10 Dan Carter NZ (Crusaders) As we expected at the start of the year, this was a close run thing and Quade Cooper can justifiably feel a little unlucky since he was the tournament's top points scorer. But when Cooperman went head-to-head with DC in Round Fifteen, he came off second best, which ultimately tipped the count in the Crusaders pivot's favour. All hail king Carter.

9 Will Genia AUS (Reds) We don't expect too many arguments here, especially after that try in the final. Charl McLeod and try-machine Sarel Pretorious deserve a mention.

8 Kieran Read NZ (Crusaders) Another clear choice from the losing finalists. Read revelled in the responsibility of leading the travelling Crusaders for much of the season in the absence of Richie McCaw. Quite possibly the best 8 in the world at the moment.

7 Ashley Johnson SA (Cheetahs) Eh? What about Matt Todd? Every team deserves a surprise package. Johnson got the nod at 7 for three consecutive weeks between Rounds Thirteen and Fifteen and once at number eight in Round Two. Johnson scored four tries for the Cheetahs, including one in their upset win over the Crusaders (when Todd was on the bench).

6 Scott Higginbotham Aus (Reds) Our Man of the Match in the final, Higginbotham was a key element in the Reds' winning formula. A mention must also go to Highlanders captain Adam Thomson, who scored six tries, the most for any forward in the competition.

5 Victor Matfield SA (Bulls) So much is expected of Matfield that when his name isn't in lights every weekend the naysayers immediately claim he's past it. But over the course of the season his name cropped up enough to remind us all of his class. Andries Bekker wasn't far behind but went missing in the Stormers' biggest game of the year.

4 Nathan Sharpe AUS (Western Force) Yes, we know Sharpe was wearing a '5' on his back for most of the season but he was the standout second rower of the tournament and can't be left out. Workhorse Brad Thorn kept on grafting in the trenches while Rynhardt Elstadt was one of finds of the season.

3 John Afoa NZ (Blues) A dead heat with WP Nel (Cheetahs) and Owen Franks (Crusaders) but we'll go with Afoa, who produced arguably his best season for the Blues - his last before heading to Ulster.

2 Bismarck du Plessis SA (Sharks) The Sharks charger finished level with Keven Mealamu thanks partly to the Blues playing two extra games and the Du Plessis-Smit situation at the Sharks.

1 Wyatt Crockett NZ (Crusaders) Crocket's game has come on in leaps and bounds all around the field this year but his scrummaging has been phenomenal. The Crusaders' demolition of the Stormers' set-piece in Cape Town will go down as one of the highlights of the season. A mention too for the Highlanders' Jamie Mackintosh.

Fixtures

July 2011

Sat 23, Australia v South Africa

Stadium Australia, Sydney
20:00 local, 10:00 GMT, 11:00 BST

Sat 30, New Zealand v South Africa

Westpac Stadium, Wellington
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

August 2011

Sat 6, New Zealand v Australia
Eden Park, Auckland
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

Sat 13, South Africa v Australia
Kings Park Stadium, Durban
17:05 local, 15:05 GMT, 16:05 BST

Sat 20, South Africa v New Zealand
Nelson Mandela Bay, Port Elizabeth
17:05 local, 15:05 GMT, 16:05 BST

Sat 27, Australia v New Zealand
Lang Park, Brisbane
20:05 local, 10:05 GMT, 11:05 BST

Sat 23, Australia v South Africa
(20:00 local, 10:00 GMT, 11:00 BST)

Lets hear your thoughts and opinions...

by **Biltong** Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:00 pm

Well it won't be good for SA on the away leg.

by funnyExiledScot Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:09 pm

SA to lose all its away games but to do ok at home - beating Aus.

Aus to do well against SA and NZ at home. Lose to SA away.

NZ to win at home and sneak an away win or two sufficient to come out on top overall.

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:11 pm

Itll be nice for you to have something you can get your teeth stuck into Biltong mate...!

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts...!

by GunsGerms Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:19 pm

8 Kieran Read (Crusaders) Another clear choice from the losing finalists. Read revelled in the responsibility of leading the travelling Crusaders for much of the season in the absence of Richie McCaw. Quite possibly the best 8 in the world at the moment.

--------

Kieran Read by a distance but there aren't a lot of outstanding 8s in Super rugby. Been plenty of debate on this before but don't think he is the best 8 in the world. Parisse, Heaslip and Harinordiquy are just as good.

Reckon NZ will win again but the most interesting sub plot will be South Africa's development and tactics. Will they continue playing the DuPreez box kick and chase ultra physical gameplan where they concentrate on phase one attacks and set piece domination with a view to attracting penalties and let their excellent kickers chip away or throw it round a bit more.

Bulls were the dominant force in SA the Stormers are now. Will SA play a bit more like the Stormers?

by **Biltong** Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:21 pm

OK, here goes.

This is most likely the team from SA that will face Australia and New Zealand.

1. Dean Greyling
2. John Smit
3. Werner Kruger
4. Flip van der Merwe
5. Johan Muller (hamstring so may be replaced by Gerhard Mostert)
6. Heinrich Brussouw
7. Ashley Johnson
8. Ryan Kankowski
9. Ruan Pienaar
10. Morne Steyn
11. Mvovo
12. Wynand Olivier
13. Juan du Jongh
14. Ndungane
15. Lambie.

Bench.
16. Chilliboy
17. Coenie Oosthuizen
18. Danie Russouw
19. Jean deysel
20. Charl Mcleod
21. Gio Aplon
22. Adrian Jacobs.

Although most of these players are quality, they have not played together much. It is almost more like a SA barnarian team than a Springbok team.

THey do not strike fear into the opposition, Taylorman and myself was discussing this the other day, and he reckons these guys have an opportunity to impress. Perhaps so, but under pressure there will be few chances to impress, let alone gain parity.

Our biggest potential problem here will be defence. There will be very little understanding between the players, and they might just pick up a heavy defeat along the way.

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:26 pm

biltongbek wrote:
Although most of these players are quality, they have not played together much. It is almost more like a SA barnarian team than a Springbok team.

THey do not strike fear into the opposition, Taylorman and myself was discussing this the other day, and he reckons these guys have an opportunity to impress. Perhaps so, but under pressure there will be few chances to impress, let alone gain parity.

Our biggest potential problem here will be defence. There will be very little understanding between the players, and they might just pick up a heavy defeat along the way.

Fair play many of those names are not on the tips of our tongues when we think of a choice Bok team at the moment.

If this team doesnt work do you think that PDV will revert to a few of the old faithful?

by **Biltong** Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:26 pm

leinsterbaby wrote:
Reckon NZ will win again but the most interesting sub plot will be South Africa's development and tactics. Will they continue playing the DuPreez box kick and chase ultra physical gameplan where they concentrate on phase one attacks and set piece domination with a view to attracting penalties and let their excellent kickers chip away or throw it round a bit more.

Bulls were the dominant force in SA the Stormers are now. Will SA play a bit more like the Stormers?

We need to use the physicality of the sharks and Bull forwards. The defensive organisation of the Stormers. The kick and chase of the bulls ala Bjorn Basson's accuracy, and the attacking flair of the cheetahs.

by GunsGerms Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:28 pm

biltongbek wrote:OK, here goes.

This is most likely the team from SA that will face Australia and New Zealand.

1. Dean Greyling
2. John Smit
3. Werner Kruger
4. Flip van der Merwe
5. Johan Muller (hamstring so may be replaced by Gerhard Mostert)
6. Heinrich Brussouw
7. Ashley Johnson
8. Ryan Kankowski
9. Ruan Pienaar
10. Morne Steyn
11. Mvovo
12. Wynand Olivier
13. Juan du Jongh
14. Ndungane
15. Lambie.

Bench.
16. Chilliboy
17. Coenie Oosthuizen
18. Danie Russouw
19. Jean deysel
20. Charl Mcleod
21. Gio Aplon
22. Adrian Jacobs.

Although most of these players are quality, they have not played together much. It is almost more like a SA barnarian team than a Springbok team.

THey do not strike fear into the opposition, Taylorman and myself was discussing this the other day, and he reckons these guys have an opportunity to impress. Perhaps so, but under pressure there will be few chances to impress, let alone gain parity.

Our biggest potential problem here will be defence. There will be very little understanding between the players, and they might just pick up a heavy defeat along the way.

How did you come up with that team? Are there lots of injuries? No Spies, DeVilliers, beast, Habanna or Fourie

by **Biltong** Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:28 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
biltongbek wrote:
Although most of these players are quality, they have not played together much. It is almost more like a SA barnarian team than a Springbok team.

THey do not strike fear into the opposition, Taylorman and myself was discussing this the other day, and he reckons these guys have an opportunity to impress. Perhaps so, but under pressure there will be few chances to impress, let alone gain parity.

Our biggest potential problem here will be defence. There will be very little understanding between the players, and they might just pick up a heavy defeat along the way.

Fair play many of those names are not on the tips of our tongues when we think of a choice Bok team at the moment.

If this team doesnt work do you think that JDV will revert to a few of the old faithful?

I assume you mean PDV? No I doubt it, he has made his decision, no use sending half the Springbok first choice "injured" players halfway across the world to play one match in New Zealand.

I personally think he has written off the away leg.

by **Biltong** Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:30 pm

Leinsterbaby, here is a link to the original thread I wrote on this away squad.

https://www.606v2.com/t9154-looking-at-the-possible-away-match-day-selections-for-pdv

It is on the bottom of our first rugby union page.

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:33 pm

leinsterbaby wrote:

Kieran Read by a distance but there aren't a lot of outstanding 8s in Super rugby. Been plenty of debate on this before but don't think he is the best 8 in the world. Parisse, Heaslip and Harinordiquy are just as good.

Interesting point, and I must say i rate Kieran Read very highly, though i do wish that Jonathan Thomas had been in your list of valuable number eight talent, as it would be a great boost to Wales that possibly our poorest eight was in those ranks... UNFORTUNATELY not...!

by GunsGerms Tue 12 Jul 2011, 3:36 pm

biltongbek wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:
Reckon NZ will win again but the most interesting sub plot will be South Africa's development and tactics. Will they continue playing the DuPreez box kick and chase ultra physical gameplan where they concentrate on phase one attacks and set piece domination with a view to attracting penalties and let their excellent kickers chip away or throw it round a bit more.

Bulls were the dominant force in SA the Stormers are now. Will SA play a bit more like the Stormers?

We need to use the physicality of the sharks and Bull forwards. The defensive organisation of the Stormers. The kick and chase of the bulls ala Bjorn Basson's accuracy, and the attacking flair of the cheetahs.

Good answer. I think it was SAs physicality that won the 09 Tri nations but they were heavily penalised last year and I felt they weren't allowed be as physical as they traditionally are. Will be very interesting to see how it pans out this year.

by emack2 Tue 12 Jul 2011, 4:13 pm

I have been reading the NZ press over the last few days all full of gloom and doom.Crusaders had by there best standards an off day versus Reds on Saturday.
"All The wrong game plan"",how do we cope with Genia and Cooper"
"Henry needs to change his game plan,for RWC can he?".
" Crusaders need rest,not more games?".almost like a team in melt down.
You would`nt believe this was the side that won a 3Ns 6-0,lost one game at the last minute.To a team they had beaten 10 out of the last 11 games.
NZ has the best team and the worst press in the World,a Nz side is not allowed to lose.Pride is one thing but this is taking it to extremes.
The Australians get there press and fans behind there team,there expectations are not as high.
The Boks are a proud side,the squad picked I expect them to accquit themselves well.
This may well be a Wallaby reviveval when they take the 3Ns,Bledisloe and RWC,but it is not the done deal some people are talking about.
As to the Boks using dominating physicallity they want to look at there Scrum.The 3-4-1 is afterall a Bok invention,but there scrummaging of late has been poor compared to the glory days.The last decent Prop fielded by the Boks was Os Du Randt and he was a great.

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Jul 2011, 4:20 pm

emack2 wrote:
This may well be a Wallaby reviveval when they take the 3Ns,Bledisloe and RWC,but it is not the done deal some people are talking about.

I agree with that point, that the Wallabies are a team on the rise. I wouldnt be surprised to see them do well in this years tri-nations.

They are capable of taking all their home games and a few away too.

by TheGreyGhost Tue 12 Jul 2011, 5:06 pm

What on earth does the S15 have to do with the Wallabies?

SA S15 sides romped the S14 last year, but SA had a terrible year following it.

Australia were even beaten by England twice last year...conceded the BC, and were white-washed in the the 2x3N by NZ.

It's amazing how hysterical folks will get over the result of one game. A home game. In dry conditions. In July.

The Aussies have lost some serious experience, still struggle at the set piece and currently rely on individual brilliance to dig them out.

Had the Crusaders won the S15 the talk would all be about how they'd peaked and would burn out prior to October.

by Taylorman Tue 12 Jul 2011, 5:57 pm

The press have been a bit gloomy in typical oh well lets start again mode and the difference as usual is unlike any other country, the NZ press still expects to win its rugby regardless of all the unlikely factors.
I guess we're stuck with it.agree with GG. Sxv has little to do with the 3N and i think much of that is to do with the coaching setups and ability to select the right players and gameplan.
GH has said hes been in full analysis mode for 7 months now.
This is critical to the NZ chances this year and presently i think he will know more about the game of rugby than anyone on the planet in that not only is the analysis key he knows how to apply it.
So the ab team that goes out this month will be nothing like any of the nz sxv teams this year. Theyll be fresher smarter and will have their own identity,as ab teams usually do.
So NZ still sits in the box seat for the 3N because thats how it was last year
. But what will this year bring? what are deans and pdv's findings?
I guess we will know soon enough.

by emack2 Tue 12 Jul 2011, 7:09 pm

Taylorman the only observations I would make are,that helter skelter Rugby
was introduced under Mitchell and has been accepted as the norm since.
There is no such thing as people have written the Bok way or All Black way of winning.
The way over the last couple of seasons has been the IRB
directive at the breakdown seeming different in 2009,2010.and yet again this.Sh and NH have different views on it they should`nt have but they do.
There is now an increase in the McCaw is a cheat campaign and he is penalised more than before,also seems not yet to be fully match fit.
The 3Ns will give all three SH sides time to fine tune for RWC then adjust the squad accordingly .

by Shifty Tue 12 Jul 2011, 7:12 pm

New Zealand will walk it.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 5:49 am

Whoever wins the Bledisloe this will take 3N.

I agree not much overlap between the S15 and 3N.

Except confidence.

Wallabies scrum will be 50% different to last year with Kepu, TPN, Horwill and Palu coming in.

Like it or not, Reds winning the S15 was a shock to NZ given the side contains the majority of ABs. It stunned them and their fans and they are worried. Success comes from momentum and confidence and you have not seen a Wallabies outfit this confident for years.

They are on the rise.

Where are the ABs? Better than last year like the Wallabies? I very much doubt it. Their peak is probably behind them.

I think the first test between ABs and Wallabies this year will tell the story of who wins 3N.

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 6:36 am

How have you come to the conclusion that the wallabies are better than last year and the abs arent when neither have played?
superrxv win perhaps? Nz had 2 out of 4 semi sides and none in the bottom 5 cluttered with Sa and oz teams
and momentum from what?
the end of year tour where they were inconsistent where the abs won all but one all year?
Or momentum from sxv? like that that the bulls stormers got for SA last year.
I think abs are building nicely. Have no major injuries.
But fair enough. You sure see a lot more than we do.
Yes reds won but you must be jpking if that translates through to the abs.
Lot to learn rob. Lot to learn.
Was that a 50% different scrum or better. Because i sure aint see better. And now robinson is out. Hmmm...

by maestegmafia Thu 14 Jul 2011, 6:54 am

Taylorman wrote:How have you come to the conclusion that the wallabies are better than last year and the abs arent when neither have played?
superrxv win perhaps? Nz had 2 out of 4 semi sides and none in the bottom 5 cluttered with Sa and oz teams
and momentum from what?
the end of year tour where they were inconsistent where the abs won all but one all year?
Or momentum from sxv? like that that the bulls stormers got for SA last year.
I think abs are building nicely. Have no major injuries.
But fair enough. You sure see a lot more than we do.
Yes reds won but you must be jpking if that translates through to the abs.
Lot to learn rob. Lot to learn.
Was that a 50% different scrum or better. Because i sure aint see better. And now robinson is out. Hmmm...

Who won the last game between the two sides? Maybe that is also a fair statement of form?

You cant deny that Australia is a better team than the sum of its parts. Good Aussie teams have been based on the dominance of one Franchise. Brumbies were the majority of a strong Australia before.

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 7:17 am

I didnt say aussie werent better than the sum of its parts. Who other than the boks isnt.you cant deny theyre inconsistent either. 5 wins from last 10 confirms it.
The challenge for deans is to realise the potential of the team given the reds success.
That has yet to be done. It looks promising but certainly no more than the nz players this year.
In terms of readiness i would say abs are well ahead.
Deans has a huge challenge and in contrast several key areas the abs are just about sorted. The tight being the major one. Its more about selection gameplan and motivation for henry but for deans its about balance and building key combinations- some from scratch if he goes for new reds players. He also needs a functional front row. The superxv didnt clearly give him that.
Aus have huge potential but youre asking a lot for deans to make the reds efforts conversion to the test arena on such a short time

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 7:19 am

Maybe I do because I use both eyes.

How do you conclude the ABs are in the box seat when they haven't played? Because GH has done lots and lots of analysis over the past 7 months? Is that it? Is it because GH knows more about rugby that ANYONE on the planet? Geez.

I base it on a few things - we are ALL in predictive mode here of course as no one has played yet.

- the last test between the 2 teams where the ABs lost. That will count for confidence and momentum. It dealt an enormous psychological blow in favour of W.

- the youth in W means these players are still developing and they, in their early 20s just keep getting better and better. There is no reason to think their development will stop this year, Cooper is a much more mature player than in 2010. Look at how he controlled the Stormers game in SA through field position. He has shown he can adjust his game when he needs to. Blokes like Genia, Beale, O'Connor, Pocock just keep getting better and better

- they will have a much stonger forward pack with half of them new coming in who were out injured for whole of 2010. They have much better depth this year across the park.

- ABs. I suggest we have seen their best year. If not, I cannot see them getting any better. It is called a peak. DC safe, but he is not at his best. A few stars on the wrong side of their peak: Mealamu, Thorn, McCaw, DC.

- Doubt. No doubt about it: a few seeds of doubt creeping in. Look at Mealamu's comments in the press after the final. Doubt being the inverse of confidence.

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 7:38 am

Then we will see wont we. The biggest task still remains. Converting the abilities to the top level is huge.
With beale oconnor pocock cooper the faainga bros and genia this has been done.
Is there time to bring the rest on.
Perhaps.

by emack2 Thu 14 Jul 2011, 7:40 am

not to be pedantic for the record Matches played 68.
winners 1996 NZ 4-0
winners1997 NZ 4-0
winners 1998 SA 4-0
winners 1999 NZ 3-1
winners 2000 Aus 3-1
winners 2001 Aus 2-1-1
winners 2002 NZ 3-1.
winners 2003 NZ 4-0
winners 2004 SA 2-2[bonus points win]
Winners 2005 NZ 3-1
winners 2006 NZ 5-1
Winners 2007 NZ 3-1
winners 2008 NZ 4-2
winners 2009 SA 5-1
winners 2010 NZ 6-0
NZ 10 titles 48 wins
SA 3 titles 13wins 1 draw[1!title on bonus points]
Aus 2 titles 12 wins 1 draw
titles won to nil NZ 5.SA 1,AUS nil.
Bookies Favourites 2011 NZ

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 8:03 am

Abs are obvious faves alan. Hard not to be with their recent record. Is this team too old? Perhaps but not in the key areas. Leadership onfield is strong.
Oz are about confidence and potential. They have to be. SA? No idea what they will bring.
Perhaps the young guard will rebel and prove themselves but somehow i think theyre pdvs way of proving hes right in sticking with his even older army!
Oz and kiwis to sort it and hopefully another in the bag.

by kiakahaaotearoa Thu 14 Jul 2011, 10:56 am

What I find interesting with this 3N so close to the RWC is the tactics that will be used. There was talk that the Crusaders played a too lateral game against the Reds. But do you change tactics now and drive it up the middle punching holes in the defence and exposing them out wide? Do you break their confidence now but give them time to regroup. Or another option is you change tactics and still lose and then your own confidence is shattered.

I agree the Wallabies are on the rise simply because they are a huge confidence team. Get the right results and the self belief is there. So the first up game between them is a huge match. NZ don´t want to lose any of their home matches. Richie McCaw needs some rugby now to play himself into form.

There are injuries for all sides. Robinson for the Wallabies is a big blow as sticks in the front row aren´t exactly brimming full of options. With the Boks playing a Barbarians team, they in a way take themselves out of the psychological battles. They can always claim that their big artillery are due back later in the year so any read into their form is impossible. But the Wallabies have the most to gain from putting in a good performance. They can show that it wasn´t just Super rugby, that the national side is also capable of winning.

Make no mistake, these games matter for the 3N despite their ostensible irrelevance in a world cup year. But how much will each team give away? How much will a win mean for each side? How will tactics be employed? Going to be fascinating to find out. How I love this sport!

by boomeranga Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:03 am

All sports teams require confidence though. To say it's jet the wallabies is too simple.

by TheGreyGhost Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:05 am

Folks keep saying the Wallabies are on the rise. But I fail to see the evidence for it. It seems to be entirely based on one late-snatched victory over NZ last year, against the rotated AB squad while Donald did the Duck of Death...and the Reds winning the S15 at home, on the back of what is regarded as a wildly unfairly structured league.

If NZ had lost home and away to England, won just 2 from 6 in the last 3N's, conceded the BC 3-1 and capped it all off with a loss to an Irish regional team on the most recent EOYT...but the Chiefs had got up and won the S15...would we all be declaring them "a rising force" and penciling them in as RWC finalists? I think not.

by kiakahaaotearoa Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:11 am

I didn´t say it was just the Wallabies mate. Of course, for every side momentum and confidence from winning is hugely important. Look at England after winning this year´s 6N.

I also think the Wallabies are one of the best sides in the world to negate their deficiencies and play to their strengths. But you could see how much it meant to them with that win in Hong Kong. But take a team like France who are the NH side with the best record against the ABs and a win for them seems to have no relevance the next time they play as invariably they get beaten quite convincingly. SA can play some drab rugby against the NH sides and get a few losses but it doesn´t seem to affect them that much psychologically when it comes to playing Australia and NZ.

by BATH_BTGOG Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:12 am

1 of the 3 will win it again :run1:

by red_stag Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:16 am

"Forecasts for the Tri Nations...?"

Probably decent weather with scattered showers Smile

by **Biltong** Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:27 am

In a way I agree with Greyghost (surprised?).

The Wallabies still have a few questionable issues.

Depth.
Tight five.
The mental toughness of a young team.

The Super XV have shown their conference to be the least competitive. So that clearly shows depth is not as great as SA and NZ

With some new injuries their tight five may have some problems

Although some of their youngsters do have some 20 odd test mtaches under the belt, Australia has lost some games they shouldn't have, so the mentality is still not proven.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:29 am

emack2 wrote:not to be pedantic for the record Matches played 68.
winners 1996 NZ 4-0
winners1997 NZ 4-0
winners 1998 SA 4-0
winners 1999 NZ 3-1
winners 2000 Aus 3-1
winners 2001 Aus 2-1-1
winners 2002 NZ 3-1.
winners 2003 NZ 4-0
winners 2004 SA 2-2[bonus points win]
Winners 2005 NZ 3-1
winners 2006 NZ 5-1
Winners 2007 NZ 3-1
winners 2008 NZ 4-2
winners 2009 SA 5-1
winners 2010 NZ 6-0
NZ 10 titles 48 wins
SA 3 titles 13wins 1 draw[1!title on bonus points]
Aus 2 titles 12 wins 1 draw
titles won to nil NZ 5.SA 1,AUS nil.
Bookies Favourites 2011 NZ

Yeah the bookies are great indicators - heavily backed the Crusaders as well.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:49 am

TheGreyGhost wrote:Folks keep saying the Wallabies are on the rise. But I fail to see the evidence for it. It seems to be entirely based on one late-snatched victory over NZ last year, against the rotated AB squad while Donald did the Duck of Death...and the Reds winning the S15 at home, on the back of what is regarded as a wildly unfairly structured league.

If NZ had lost home and away to England, won just 2 from 6 in the last 3N's, conceded the BC 3-1 and capped it all off with a loss to an Irish regional team on the most recent EOYT...but the Chiefs had got up and won the S15...would we all be declaring them "a rising force" and penciling them in as RWC finalists? I think not.

As to a rising force - it is all relative, but they are and relative to NZ of course they are.

It is not one off the back of one game - but I do detect the usual unwillingness to give any credit " EXCUSE (i) it was a one off game" EXCUSE (ii) squad rotation (gee, that's a new one) EXCUSE (iii) Donald Duck. The bloke who knows more about rugby than anyone on the planet put him on - maybe he hadn't started his 7 months of detailed analysis at that stage.

They have gone from the doldrums from a No 5 ranking to a No. 2 ranking. Many losses, then 2010 turned the corner with some poor results also some excellent ones:

Wins over SA both in Aust and at altitude - the first time in over 40 years.

AI: Beating everyone except England with No scrum, penalty tries conceded yet they still win.

On HKG and Brit tour 4-1 win / loss record. Same as ABs.

Demolishing France scoring 59 points.

ABs looking a bit tired and old. They have been ready for the RWC for 18 months - problem is they aren't able to hold form for that long.

by kiakahaaotearoa Thu 14 Jul 2011, 12:38 pm

ABs looking a bit tired and old.

Hmmm, based on their Super15? If you´d been travelling more than 100 000 km in a year, I think you´d be looking a bit tired too!

It´s true McCaw is in need of some more rugby. Keiran Read hadn´t been in any great form for much of the season compared with his impressive form from last year. You could say that about players like Nonu, Smith, Muliaina, Jane, Gear, Donnelley etc didn´t play very well this year.

Then again Carter didn´t play very well last year in Super rugby. There were a lot of players coming back from injury or loss in form who excelled in 2010. Don´t get me wrong, the Wallaby selectors have a headache on their hands with respect to who is going to make the team with a lot of players putting up their hand for selection. But the Boks showed last year that Super rugby doesn´t necessarily translate to test rugby. If the Wallabies score an away win and get some home wins then by all means say that they´re on the rise. But until we see some test rugby played, then I don´t see how you make this claim of the ABs being tired and old.

by emack2 Thu 14 Jul 2011, 1:12 pm

Stating the obvious,how can you say the All Blacks look tired they have`nt played since November 2010.
NZ lost to a last minute penalty in Hong Kong,Australia lost to England twice home and away.
In both cases they lost due to inexperience or poor goal kicking,certainly
Australia and England are improving.
S15 results Reds were invincible in Brisbane,but all matches are`nt played at Brisbane in a 3Ns.
Adapting to the other sides game is the sign of a good side,not going in with preconceived ideas and only one style of play.
If any side can play helter skelter Rugby as well as NZ is OZ.
What SA will do no one yet knows.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 1:28 pm

emack2 wrote:Stating the obvious,how can you say the All Blacks look tired they have`nt played since November 2010.

[10 of them played last Saturday - looked tired to me. But more to the point, their star players are on the wane a bit: DC, McCaw, Thorn, Mealamu are not the players they were last year. They have plateaued]

NZ lost to a last minute penalty in Hong Kong [ No they didn't; they lost to a converted try] ,Australia lost to England twice home and away.

[ If I were England I wouldn't put too much weight on it. They won in Aust because Giteau missed a penalty in front of the posts 18 yards out at the death. If he had have done what my grandmother could have done Asutralia would have the series 2-0 with no scrum]. Certainly Aust were no themselves at Twickenam; no intensity and was a lowpoint. I think the drubbing of France showed what they can do.]

In both cases they lost due to inexperience or poor goal kicking,certainly
Australia and England are improving.
S15 results Reds were invincible in Brisbane,but all matches are`nt played at Brisbane in a 3Ns.

[I haven't suggested W will win because of Reds results. I have suggested that that win will impact negatively on the confidence levels of the ABs]
Adapting to the other sides game is the sign of a good side,not going in with preconceived ideas and only one style of play.

[ Not sure what the reference is to one style of play. Reds played various styles this year. Take a look at what they did to the Stormers in SA.]
If any side can play helter skelter Rugby as well as NZ is OZ.
What SA will do no one yet knows.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 1:48 pm

biltongbek wrote:In a way I agree with Greyghost (surprised?).

The Wallabies still have a few questionable issues.

Depth.
Tight five.
The mental toughness of a young team.

The Super XV have shown their conference to be the least competitive. So that clearly shows depth is not as great as SA and NZ

With some new injuries their tight five may have some problems

Although some of their youngsters do have some 20 odd test mtaches under the belt, Australia has lost some games they shouldn't have, so the mentality is still not proven.

The depth of talent in Australia for rugby has always been spread thin at Super Rugby level and below that. However, their top 30 players match the depth of any team, Players 31 to 150 agree the depth falls away progressively. Not surpring really - rugby is a distant third football code in Aust. Rugby League and AFL are enormous. It is a totally new venture at Rebels and rugby has no profile in WA where Force is based. All the players are purchased. I think depth in top 30 this year will be better than previous years.

Tight five: agree depth issues for the props but not hookers or locks, unlike last year. Though with players returning from injury, props looking a lot better than last year NWS Robinson's injury.

Mental toughness - they have it spades and keep showing it. They continue to show they can show solutions in tight moments. ABs test in HKG - last minute try and conversion by a 20 year old. Genia and Cooper have displayed incredible toughness in pressured situations.

by kiakahaaotearoa Thu 14 Jul 2011, 2:07 pm

No complaints with the claim of mental toughness Rob. But might I point out the Sydney test where the Wallabies played great rugby and ABs showed great mental toughness to come out on top. Or the previous week where they were down against the Boks and found a way to come back at the dead.

No doubt the Wallabies are closing the gap but one win from 4 matches last year against the ABs isn´t necessarily an indication of mental toughness that they have in spades and keep on showing.

by disneychilly Thu 14 Jul 2011, 2:18 pm

Know what you're saying Rob and the Wallabies are definitely on the rise but for every HK triumph there's also a loss from 22-9 up to temper any optimism.

I hate to say it as I love the scrum but Australia has showed you don't need to have one to win.

Aussie is NZ's No 1 threat I think-well I think Aussie will win it-but what gives me hope is the scrum, Cooper under pressure and them not consistently having the goods under pressure as a collective in the big games. But it is getting better and that is ominous for everyone else.

by OzT Thu 14 Jul 2011, 2:38 pm

not to mention the two losses to the boks after having blitzed them in the 1st 20 minutes.

Nut I am sure those losses will have toughen the Wallabies up, and maybe teach them how to defend and close a game down.

by Rob B Thu 14 Jul 2011, 4:00 pm

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:No complaints with the claim of mental toughness Rob. But might I point out the Sydney test where the Wallabies played great rugby and ABs showed great mental toughness to come out on top. Or the previous week where they were down against the Boks and found a way to come back at the dead.

No doubt the Wallabies are closing the gap but one win from 4 matches last year against the ABs isn´t necessarily an indication of mental toughness that they have in spades and keep on showing.

Agree in the main. They grew as the season went on. Ordinary in June - typical slow start to the season; getting better in Aust then very good in SA, HK and AI (except England where they did not turn up). And all essentially with no scrum.

Yes Sydney up 22-9 and lost 22-23. The nightmares are returning. If I am right that was the test where Sir Richie scored the game changing try by breaking off the scrum early (illegally) on the blind side, No 8 passed it to him all of a sudden ABs had created this magical 3 on 2 scenario (or 2 on 1). We were all waiting for the whistle to go for the penalty but alas it was for the try! Gut wrenching. That's why HKG was so sweet. C'est la vie. They learnt a bit from Sydney. Closed out a tight one in SA and the tight one in HKG. Just learning how to win. I just get the sense that when the heat is on certain key players just deliver more as they get better - not all of them but those in the key spots like 9,10,15. Remember Beales 54 metre penalty goal in SA to win in altitude for the first time ever. Those moments will help them.

by emack2 Thu 14 Jul 2011, 5:42 pm

Robb t sorry it was a converted try,not a penalty,BUT s15 does not equate to 3Ns.
Away form is what counts, one win in 11 at death knock,does`nt equate to supremacy.S15 form means nothing in 3Ns.
I think the All Blacks will win there home games,and are more than capable of winning away.
In 2009 the All Blacks were injury riddled in the 3Ns dropped 3 games to SA for the only time in a 3Ns.
In 2010 the boks were handicapped after the loss of key players,After the first 3 AB wins,there was little between the 3 sides in the last 3.
Mental toughness?the All Blacks won two,they should`nt have,the Boks could have won 3 matches and certainly should have won 2 of the 3 versus Aus.
Agreed Australia should have won both games versus England in Australia,but they were wel beaten in England.
I go into EVERY toournament with an open mind no matter who I support,but I trust in history to a large extent.
History said the Reds would win the S15 final,History s sides win 3Ns that travel best.
Only one has been decided on bonus points 2004,last time Aus won in NZ was 2001,this year to take the 3Ns think they will have to do it again.

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 9:12 pm

You're still placing a lot of emphasis on 2 matches- last minute win in Hong Kong, by which time ALL trophies had been handed out and the sxv, which the Reds won well.

Other than that where are the ups? Where is the momentum? the reds path to the final? Saders and Blues were practically on the same path.

Where is the depth? NZ had 2 squads of 30 top 4, not one. Where is the tight 5- better than last year? Sorry but I dont see it.

Can't agree the Crusaders loss to the Reds will negatively impact on the AB's- in fact the resolve of the Crusaders season in getting that far will have a far greater impact on the AB's- a whole season of adversity versus the narrow loss of the final- go figure.

And your 'tired' comments appear to be based on the saders effort in the Reds final or some of the Saders or Blues AB efforts- yet at the same time are reluctant to compromise the fact that the saders just might be a little jaded after 100k of travel.

Otherwise where else has it come from? The rest of the Superxv? Last year? Where is this tiredness?

Wallabies are at a cross roads- no one knows where they are at but I think we can agree they have or will move- its just whether it is up- in which case Deans will have successfully negotiated the transfer of both skills and momentum, or down, in which case he hasnt.

A Hong Kong win and a Reds superxv win isnt a lot to put your money on and yes the bookies don't always get it right, they got Hong Kong wrong as well. Thats 2.

by boomeranga Thu 14 Jul 2011, 10:31 pm

emack2 wrote:Robb t sorry it was a converted try,not a penalty,BUT s15 does not equate to 3Ns.
Away form is what counts, one win in 11 at death knock,does`nt equate to supremacy.S15 form means nothing in 3Ns.
I think the All Blacks will win there home games,and are more than capable of winning away.
In 2009 the All Blacks were injury riddled in the 3Ns dropped 3 games to SA for the only time in a 3Ns.
In 2010 the boks were handicapped after the loss of key players,After the first 3 AB wins,there was little between the 3 sides in the last 3.
Mental toughness?the All Blacks won two,they should`nt have,the Boks could have won 3 matches and certainly should have won 2 of the 3 versus Aus.
Agreed Australia should have won both games versus England in Australia,but they were wel beaten in England.
I go into EVERY toournament with an open mind no matter who I support,but I trust in history to a large extent.
History said the Reds would win the S15 final,History s sides win 3Ns that travel best.
Only one has been decided on bonus points 2004,last time Aus won in NZ was 2001,this year to take the 3Ns think they will have to do it again.

I think 2009 and 2010 NZ v SA should teach us that none of us can rely on last year. In each year, I think to detract from the dominant team would be unfair, but the 0-3 to 3-0 switch was as much down to injuries to both sides so much that I genuinely doubt either would have swept the other if both were closer to full strength. The circumstances which your team / the opposition find themselves in this year will again be a big factor.

by Taylorman Thu 14 Jul 2011, 11:24 pm

For the ABs the biggest change between 2009 and 2010 was the tackle ball rule interpretation. In short it favoured running the ball rather than kicking it. That combined with SA's unwillingness to move from the style of 2009- kick for territory/ pressure etc meant it threw them.

SA also had injuries- Du Preez, Smith etc but the momentum shift was certainly helped by the focus on running the ball.

That will happen with NZ and Oz this year but there does seem to be an increasing kicking game coming back- short chips through and over seem to be common.

I'm looking forward to the 3N and especially in seeing what this years Oz and SA 3N teams bring- there's a freshness about them this year even if for different reasons.

NZ will be much of the same but I think the strong leadership across the team- Mealamu, Thorne, Reade, Maccaw, carter , Smith and Mils will be what makes this team. Much better decision making all round than previously.

by Taylorman Fri 15 Jul 2011, 2:21 am

Funny reading the overseas tabloids again in the last week. Tindall's come out saying England are going to do this and that to NZ. Elton Flatley reckons the Wallabies have it all over the ageing AB's through 'confidence', some reckon Henry's got no game plan etc...

Deja vu from last year after the Bulls/ Stormers final... "AB's will struggle after 2009 and not making the sxv final blah blah"..... then....

BOOM... Eden Park comes and the rest of the year is effectively over... then its... "Oh no ones gonna get near them next year blah blah...'

Now they're out again...even though none of the 3N teams have played this year...

where does this all come from I wonder...

by boomeranga Fri 15 Jul 2011, 2:38 am

Taylorman wrote:

Deja vu from last year after the Bulls/ Stormers final... "AB's will struggle after 2009 and not making the sxv final"

To be fair I think that part of your post was pretty prevalent amongst kiwis as well at this time last year. Confidence shifts very quickly.

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