Forecasts for the Tri Nations...?

First topic message reminder :

Yep, SH members us Northerners are all that little bit more intrigued in your three way comp this year due to the RWC in September. Not that we don't usually admire from afar, we do, just it is usually such a different spectacle to what we get in the Six nations up here we become overawed.

So for those of you who dont know, here are the historical results since 1995

1996 New Zealand 4 Wins
1997 New Zealand 4 Wins
1998 South Africa 4 Wins
1999 New Zealand 4 Wins
2000 Australia 4 Wins
2001 Australia 4 Wins
2002 New Zealand 4 Wins
2003 New Zealand 4 Wins
2004 South Africa 4 Wins
2005 New Zealand 4 Wins

The competition was expanded in 2006 and sees each of the three nations play each other three times, although the 2007 series reverted to a double round-robin to reduce fixture congestion in a World Cup year.

2006 New Zealand 6 Wins
2007 New Zealand 4 Wins
2008 New Zealand 6 Wins
2009 South Africa 6 Wins
2010 New Zealand 6 Wins


Total Games Played 68

NZ Games won 48
NZ Pints Scored 1841

SA Games won 27
SA Points Scored 1387

Oz Games Won 26
Oz Points Scored 1398

Graham Henry named a 34-man squad, including four players as injury cover, to play Fiji on July 22 and then the Tri-Nations rugby Tests against Australia and South Africa.

Forwards
John Afoa (Auckland), Corey Flynn (Canterbury), Ben Franks (Tasman), Owen Franks (Canterbury), Jarrad Hoeata (Taranaki), Andrew Hore (Taranaki), Jerome Kaino (Auckland), Richie McCaw (captain, Canterbury), Keven Mealamu (Auckland), Liam Messam (Waikato), Kieran Read (Canterbury), Adam Thomson (Otago), Brad Thorn (Canterbury), Samuel Whitelock (Canterbury), Ali Williams (Auckland), Tony Woodcock (North Harbour).

Backs
Daniel Carter (Canterbury), Jimmy Cowan (Southland), Israel Dagg (Hawke’s Bay), Andy Ellis (Canterbury), Hosea Gear (Wellington), Zac Guildford (Hawke’s Bay), Richard Kahui (Waikato), Mils Muliaina (Waikato), Ma’a Nonu (Wellington), Colin Slade (Canterbury), Conrad Smith (Wellington), Isaia Toeava (Auckland), Piri Weepu (Wellington), Sonny Bill Williams (Canterbury).

Injury replacements:
Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders), Cory Jane (Hurricanes), Sitiveni Sivivatu (Chiefs) and Ben Smith (Highlanders).



Australia coach Robbie Deans named the following expanded 40-man squad on Sunday for a test match against Samoa and for the southern hemisphere's Tri-Nations competition.

Forwards
Ben Alexander, Ben Daley, Dave Dennis, Rocky Elsom (captain), Saia Faingaa, James Hanson, Scott Higginbotham, Matt Hodgson, James Horwill, Sekope Kepu, Salesi Maafu, Ben McCalman, Stephen Moore, Dean Mumm, Wycliff Palu, David Pocock, Tatafu Polota Nau, Beau Robinson, Benn Robinson, Radike Samo, Nathan Sharpe, Rob Simmons, James Slipper, Sitaleki Timani, Dan Vickerman.

Backs
Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Luke Burgess, Quade Cooper, Rod Davies, Anthony Faingaa, Will Genia, Mark Gerrard, Matt Giteau, Digby Ioane, Pat McCabe, Luke Morahan, James O'Connor, Nick Phipps, Lachie Turner


Peter de Villiers named a 27-man squad Friday for Tri-Nations Tests in Australia and New Zealand this month:

Backs
Gio Aplon, Bjorn Basson, Adrian Jacbos, Elton Jantjies, Jean de Jongh, Patrick Lambie, Charl McLeod, Lwazi Mvovo, Odwa Ndungane, Wynand Olivier, Ruan Pienaar, Morne Steyn

Forwards
Heinrich Brussow, Jean Deysel, Deon Greyling, Alistair Hargreaves, Ashley Johnson, Ryan Kankowski, Werner Kruger, Flip van der Merwe, Johann Muller, Coenie Oosthuizen, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Danie Rossouw, John Smit (capt), Deon Stegmann, Adriaan Strauss


The team of the Tournament in the recent Super 15 as selected by Planet Rugby.com was

15 Kurtley Beale Aus (Waratahs) The 'Tahs 22-year-old backdoor man was a relatively easy pick after remarkable season. Crusaders full-back Israel Dagg was the only other serious contender. What a shame he got injured when he did.

14 Kade Poki NZ (Highlanders) The first of a few tough calls as the Highlanders' flyer ended on a dead heat with Lelia Masaga. But we gave Poki the nod for his part in the Highlanders' outstanding early season charge. Honourable mentions must also go to Sean Maitland, Rod Davies, Rene Ranger, Henry Speight and JP Pietersen.

13 Robbie Freuan NZ (Crusaders) Graham Henry doesn't reckon he's good enough for the All Blacks (at least not yet) but Freuan has been a constant figure in our selections since early March. Some say Sonny Bill Williams makes him look better than he really is...time will tell if he's the real deal. The Stormers' Jaques Fourie was next best.

12 Sonny Bill Williams NZ (Crusaders) A clear winner here. SBW has set a new benchmark for what is possible on attack, leading the offload stats by quite some distance. The All Blacks are spoilt for choice at 12 because Ma'a Nonu had a strong finish to the season and Luke McAlister also got regular mentions.

11 Digby Ioane Aus (Reds) Ok, ok, we'll admit that Queensland's newest breakdancing sensation was picked as a centre in Round Seven. Zac Guildford and Drew Mitchell both made the weekly selection three times but the latter didn't finish the season and neither can boast Ioane's versatility nor his way-cool dance moves...so we bent the rules a little. Go on Digby, get down with your bad self.

10 Dan Carter NZ (Crusaders) As we expected at the start of the year, this was a close run thing and Quade Cooper can justifiably feel a little unlucky since he was the tournament's top points scorer. But when Cooperman went head-to-head with DC in Round Fifteen, he came off second best, which ultimately tipped the count in the Crusaders pivot's favour. All hail king Carter.

9 Will Genia AUS (Reds) We don't expect too many arguments here, especially after that try in the final. Charl McLeod and try-machine Sarel Pretorious deserve a mention.

8 Kieran Read NZ (Crusaders) Another clear choice from the losing finalists. Read revelled in the responsibility of leading the travelling Crusaders for much of the season in the absence of Richie McCaw. Quite possibly the best 8 in the world at the moment.

7 Ashley Johnson SA (Cheetahs) Eh? What about Matt Todd? Every team deserves a surprise package. Johnson got the nod at 7 for three consecutive weeks between Rounds Thirteen and Fifteen and once at number eight in Round Two. Johnson scored four tries for the Cheetahs, including one in their upset win over the Crusaders (when Todd was on the bench).

6 Scott Higginbotham Aus (Reds) Our Man of the Match in the final, Higginbotham was a key element in the Reds' winning formula. A mention must also go to Highlanders captain Adam Thomson, who scored six tries, the most for any forward in the competition.

5 Victor Matfield SA (Bulls) So much is expected of Matfield that when his name isn't in lights every weekend the naysayers immediately claim he's past it. But over the course of the season his name cropped up enough to remind us all of his class. Andries Bekker wasn't far behind but went missing in the Stormers' biggest game of the year.

4 Nathan Sharpe AUS (Western Force) Yes, we know Sharpe was wearing a '5' on his back for most of the season but he was the standout second rower of the tournament and can't be left out. Workhorse Brad Thorn kept on grafting in the trenches while Rynhardt Elstadt was one of finds of the season.

3 John Afoa NZ (Blues) A dead heat with WP Nel (Cheetahs) and Owen Franks (Crusaders) but we'll go with Afoa, who produced arguably his best season for the Blues - his last before heading to Ulster.

2 Bismarck du Plessis SA (Sharks) The Sharks charger finished level with Keven Mealamu thanks partly to the Blues playing two extra games and the Du Plessis-Smit situation at the Sharks.

1 Wyatt Crockett NZ (Crusaders) Crocket's game has come on in leaps and bounds all around the field this year but his scrummaging has been phenomenal. The Crusaders' demolition of the Stormers' set-piece in Cape Town will go down as one of the highlights of the season. A mention too for the Highlanders' Jamie Mackintosh.


Fixtures

July 2011

Sat 23, Australia v South Africa

Stadium Australia, Sydney
20:00 local, 10:00 GMT, 11:00 BST


Sat 30, New Zealand v South Africa

Westpac Stadium, Wellington
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

August 2011

Sat 6, New Zealand v Australia
Eden Park, Auckland
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

Sat 13, South Africa v Australia
Kings Park Stadium, Durban
17:05 local, 15:05 GMT, 16:05 BST

Sat 20, South Africa v New Zealand
Nelson Mandela Bay, Port Elizabeth
17:05 local, 15:05 GMT, 16:05 BST

Sat 27, Australia v New Zealand
Lang Park, Brisbane
20:05 local, 10:05 GMT, 11:05 BST

Sat 23, Australia v South Africa
(20:00 local, 10:00 GMT, 11:00 BST)




Lets hear your thoughts and opinions...

Taylorman wrote:You're still placing a lot of emphasis on 2 matches- last minute win in Hong Kong, by which time ALL trophies had been handed out and the sxv, which the Reds won well.

Other than that where are the ups? Where is the momentum? the reds path to the final? Saders and Blues were practically on the same path.

Where is the depth? NZ had 2 squads of 30 top 4, not one. Where is the tight 5- better than last year? Sorry but I dont see it.

Can't agree the Crusaders loss to the Reds will negatively impact on the AB's- in fact the resolve of the Crusaders season in getting that far will have a far greater impact on the AB's- a whole season of adversity versus the narrow loss of the final- go figure.


A Hong Kong win and a Reds superxv win isnt a lot to put your money on and yes the bookies don't always get it right, they got Hong Kong wrong as well. Thats 2.

I am not saying there is any supremacy of W over ABs at this point. Nor am I banking on 2 wins either. The ABs are still the benchmark for consistent results in all situations - but they won't improve on their 2010 performances. Their key players do not look very convincing to me. W will.

But to deny they are on the rise is just short sighted.

Relative to NZ, Australian rugby is on the up. The gap is closing and this started from 2010. You only need that kind of rise and improvement over 12 months and it can make all the difference. Last time W won RWC was in 1999. But they were nowhere in 96 or 97. It was only in 98 the tide was turning.

The scores are getting closer you have to accept even if you put no weight on "on the bell" scores like Hong Kong. You can't get a lot closer than 22-23. If it had gone the other way - I submit it should have over McCaw's "try" - then you would be looking at 2-2 for the W/AB series.

Now the ABs lost in Hong Kong of course you seek to downgrade the significance of that test because all the trophies were handed out. Is that yet another excuse I hear? that "oh, well we already won the Bledisloe so we didn't take it seriously". You are speaking absolute rubbish. ABs were desperate to win that test, they were chasing a rare world record number of consecutive test wins which could have been achieved during AI. W stopped them. McCaw admitted much later that the loss stung him.

"To be fair I think that part of your post was pretty prevalent amongst kiwis as well at this time last year."

ha ha...you're dead right there... I was the same now I think back. Good call.

I remember talking to Biltongbek after the final and was dreading what a mixture of Stormers/ Bulls squad off the back of a 3-0 sweep was going to do to us.

At that time Henry's background planning from the previous year's 3N and AI's (where we finished by also climbing all over France in the last match) wasnt as well known at that point and the Eden Park Boks opener illustrated clearly the work the coaching team had done.

That's why I figure his last 7 months analysis is important this year. No idea what it will bring but its sure to be something.

My best bet is less expansive, more controlled ball and HUGE defensive patterns...

Good call though... and good luck with the 3N...

Taylorman wrote:
Now they're out again...even though none of the 3N teams have played this year...

where does this all come from I wonder...

In the overwhelming majority of cases it come from New Zealand.

Geez Rob me trying to 'lower the standard' of the match in Hong Kong is the same as you getting motivational points from the win isn't it- tide must be turning kind of thing.

Yes the AB's were desperate to win that match as they were desperate to win the 17 they did before it- but it can't go on forever- not that Oz have ever been in that position but finding motivation match after match isnt easy- especially when every single team is trying to knock your block off knowing the last umpteen have failed.

If it was such a good win why didn't they do it on other occasions, why did they get done by England straight after it if it was a measure of their improvement.

All I saw was inconsistency. Even within matches- huge leads on SA then a loss or had to scramble a Beale 45 yarder.

have they improved?... WHO knows?

Taylorman wrote:Geez Rob me trying to 'lower the standard' of the match in Hong Kong is the same as you getting motivational points from the win isn't it- tide must be turning kind of thing.

Yes the AB's were desperate to win that match as they were desperate to win the 17 they did before it- but it can't go on forever- not that Oz have ever been in that position but finding motivation match after match isnt easy- especially when every single team is trying to knock your block off knowing the last umpteen have failed.

If it was such a good win why didn't they do it on other occasions, why did they get done by England straight after it if it was a measure of their improvement.

All I saw was inconsistency. Even within matches- huge leads on SA then a loss or had to scramble a Beale 45 yarder.

have they improved?... WHO knows?

I never said they have consistency yet. ABs lost the last test against W. It was a great win for the W, except in your opinion - I think you would be by yourself on that one.

The finish was good- O'connor was impressive- very impressive.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoyed the Wallaby matches last year. I thought their tries from deep were refreshing as anything to see and play against because no one else does it- especially like that.

I guess its difficult to say a teams good, when its not consistent. Cos inconsistency means good one week, not good the next. Have to agree though, it is one hugely underated achievement to get anywhere near a level you can say you're consistent- the ultimate achievement in sport I believe. The rest comes with it.

Not many can do it and it doesnt last long.

Warning: this may be boring. My mind wandered, but others may have better concen ...

Some analysis a guy has started on the 3Ns place kickers.

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/kicking-difficulty-whos-the-top-gun-in-the-tri-nations/

Did Sheldon from "The Big bang Theory" write that?

The Wallabies are improving,Deans always was one for starting players young.Probably post RWC they will have more established players than Nz or SA.
If you take the S15 tournament as a wholeEddie Jones stated Aus had only
two teams that were any good out of 5.Eddie makes wild statements.
But truth is Aus any year only produce at best 3 good teams,same applies to Nz and SA but the latter have more depth than Aus.
If the S15 has proved anything you need larger squads to cover injuries.
If you look at past 3Ns you can only take it year by year,last year isn`t this,
Not impressed by NZ players this year?Wellington disrupted by internal troubles plus injuries to key Backs.
Crusaders and Blues often having only about 18 first choice squad members fit for several matches.Aus and SA franchises suffered too.
The 3Ns will be shadow boxing Kahui [sick note] fit one of the best backs in world Rugby but when is he fit? blown up AGAIN.
Benn Robinson 0ut for 3Ns maybe RWC,doubts over Broussow,Crusaders players to be rested?
What it amounts too is this year will be a state of attrition,who will win 3Ns,Bledisloe,and RWC ,I know not.
W hat I do know is I am fed up watching the same 3 sides endlessly year after year for money.
A 3Ns plus Bledisloe two matches home and away is enough,not 4 the 6 match format skewed it to Home advantage SA/Nz.
Fact was to win a 3Ns you needed to win your home games,then take one from Oz most years to win it.
In the 4 3Ns in the 6 match format only one went against the draw NZ 2006,fact is both S15/3Ns domination has been down to teams that travelled best NZ`s.That means nothing in any given year but travel means an awful lot in these comps.
In RWCS that factor is removed,teams that do knockout better winSA/AUS.
who wins league style comps is down to player depth.
In them at least you can have a replacement ready for next week,in RWC`s
if a key player is injured.temptation is to try and get him fit or put him on the park not match fit rather than replace him and have him finished from the tournament.
To be honest I think the final this year will be contested by one of 4 sides,Aus.SA,England,France.
I don`t think NZ have the all round game for a RWC if running Rugby fails they`ve shown know inclination to rely on 10 man,defence.drop/penalties to win matches.
You may not like it but that has been the lesson of past ones and NH reffing of the breakdown is likely to lead to more reliance on goal kickers.
For sure there will be a lot of new faces in Black shirts and Green come 2012.

The important factor is to not pay too much attention to popular opinion. If you look at public sentiment when the markets fall, lthough everyone knows now is not the time to sell, human nature is to sell anyway.

Whereas the experts are the ones making the money as they pay no heed to public sentiment.

Rugby supporters are very similar in nature. How many times have we seen supporters from countries get over confident because of one or two wins, and then believe their teams are going to become contenders. The fact remains there are so many factors to take into consideration, and most of us choose to ignore those factors if they don't suit our way of thinking.

So chin up boys, do what I do. I will state the obvious facts about the Springboks, but deep down inside it doesn't matter what popular opinion says.

That is how I remain objective.

Yeah that´s true boomeranga. 2009 was a bad year for the ABs with a 3-0 whitewash to SA and a loss to France. We won everything else including a morale boosting win in France in November which gave a lot of confidence back - sounds familiar to last year for the Wallabies coupled with Hong Kong.

There were plenty of nerves for that game in Eden Park with Nonu coming back from injury with little rugby. Then it was one of the most complete performances we´d seen in a while from the boys.

One thing´s for sure, if the Wallabies can score a win in NZ then they´ll be brimming with confidence. The Boks have all their big names back for their home games so in a way they have the pressure taken off them. That´s something I hope the ABs do in the away games but I guess that´s dependent on their two home game results.

One of the interesting things this year is it appears there will be more closed shop matches, more control and less expanse and a little more in the way of chipping tactically and to regain posession.

The AB school sessions this week are focussing on the AB gameplan template this year and its clear the helter skelter bizo will be turned down for the sake of control and percentage.

Henry says 'dont get me wrong. We'll still be using our abilities to run the ball etc and the 2 Superxv finalists were the most expansive teams in the competition'

For me this says two things. The direction taken by the ABs last year and probably ended in a better manner by Australia by years end- running the ball from deep, is now being brought to question as the primary tactic.

The other thing is it brings the game back to the SA/ England approach to the game. One dominated by less expanse, the boot and field position/ pressure on the opposition.

Henrys analysis will have told him exactly what tactics are gaining yards, tries, positional advantages etc and he will have ensured hes picked the players to achieve that gameplan.

Largely, hes picked the same players. By not picking Fruean and the like at all its clear hes gone for experience and leadership with some players- Guilford and the like being too good in form to leave out. Certainly his linking through the midfield will assist any close in gameplan.

I also think it places more pressure on Cooper and Beale to be dead sure of their options and both have a tendency to try the untried so to speak more instinctively than their NZ or SA counterparts.

I'm not sure what next weeks match between SA and Ozwill throw up but it does seem the winds of change are upon us and it may be that the run at all costs manner we have started getting used to is on the way out..

I just hope GH is sticking to his 'leading the way' motto rather than following the trodden track as it may be hard for some players to adjust and suppress their attacking skills if the plan is based around control, waiting for the best opportunities etc because that means these players will now have to think more and more about execution rather than just doing it.

And thinking first in rugby doesnt always go together.

Once long ago a Great Player [Ron Jarden]wrote a Coaching manual "Rugby on the Attack" .He played in the age of reality when defence was man to man marking[plus the famous cover defence].
His dictum was every time a player has the ball he thinks "whats on"and acts accordingly .Think before acting don`t do stupid things like playing the
ball when your off side,kicking down someones throat,or giving hospital passes.
In other words concentrate on what your doing,flashes of brilliance will win matches.BUT not making as many mistakes as the other side will win you more.
HE was one of the greatest thinkers on the game in his era,and the chapter on" kicking for profit" should be compulsory reading today as well.
He scored 143 tries in a career in an era when wings did`nt score trys,kicked a good few goals as well.Created lots of tries as well.
In other words concentrate for the full 80 plus minutes,and keep errors to a minimum.
That simple advice at ANY level is still valid in this high tech age.

Yes but a bit simplistic for what I was getting at. I'm not talking about blindly running amok with no real thought.

My concern is if they start getting into agreement over having standards based on when to do what where and how etc, although they say they want to keep the game open, going from the status quo to a gameplan based around sticking to preset rules means the ability to go with instinct becomes stifled.

Theyve got to a point now where some of the play is there because they dont need to think about it. Having rules around it will impact both individuals and established combinations. One of the key strengths of this team is to act without thinking, to know instinctively the right thing to do based on experience and success in the past and through establishing habit.

The downside to thinking first is lost opportunities and confidence.

Tweak with it by all means but don't undercut the natural talents of the players who got there through being able to largely operate with little time and space- and at test level both are very sparse indeed.

Taylorman as you rightly say, instinctiveness is what breaks open matches these days.

Most countries now employ strong defensive techniques and it is the player who instinctively manages the accurate offload, little chip etc that will allow his team those "unpredictable" moments of opportunity.

Of courese accuracy is the emphasis. A mistake will cost you 7 points on the other side of the white line.

For anyone interested here is PRs take on affairs

Oz
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_7050957,00.html

NZ
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16016_7050495,00.html

SA
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3561_7050207,00.html