Who is for the Drop?

First topic message reminder :

I've probably just given Blackburn the kiss of death by suggesting on their thread that they'll avoid the drop.

My teams for the drop are the three new boys. I think inexperience will ultimately count against them. QPR's recent poor results are not far off becoming a freefall. Despite very respectable starts, I don't see Norwich or Swansea scoring enough and believe their commendable work rates may lead to them both running out of gas around Easter.

All carefully worked out and most likely entirely wrong. What do others think?

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:Bitter?

Possibly

Honest?
100%

Really - but I do agree that incident with the corner was most bizarre. I assume it is very much more likely to be down to a c*ck up rather than a conspiracy. It could well be one of those rules that the ref had never had to apply before in his entire career.

To be fair to Blackburn that corner was quick thinking, seem to remember replays at the same time being used over and over again to say Yakubu did actually touch the ball, and I can't believe it was a practiced routine in anyway.

Really hope Bolton go down - really can't stand their fans.

Wigan will be gutted - Chelsea take lead with a (reportedly) clearly offside goal. Meanwhile Blackburn and Bolton also losing.....

Very poor from Blackburn and Bolton (who still have a game in hand) both losing 3-0 and Blackburn had a man sent off at the end (with a three or four game suspension).

Unlucky and some naivety from Wigan - they should have stuck with a 1-1 draw, instead they went attacking and got caught on the counter-attack. You can't allow yourself to do this against a team such as Chelsea.

Excellent draw for Aston Villa at Liverpool.

It is being said that Martinez attacking attitude is what ultimately cost them a draw (apart from the referee - both Chelsea goals look to be offside - the first one clearly). If Wigan do get relegated which seems likely then I think they will be in a good position to bounce back? They do seem to be financially stable and they have shown they can be quite a good team.

Although we ( Blackburn ) got battered today, if QPR lose tomorrow then this weekend would not have been that bad, i expected Bolton to win and pull clear but thankfully for me Dempsey and Fulham had other ideas.

IF we can get something from Liverpool and Swansea and then win our last 2 homes games against Norwich and Wigan we should be okay, i don't expect anything from Spurs or Chelsea's away, but if we could go to Stamford Bridge last game knowing say QPR need a result at City we could do it esp as I say we beat Wigan second from last game and potentially relegate them.

Its just too hard to predict though!!

Wolves lost away to Stoke 2-1. So four out of the bottom five lost today, with QPR playing Man Utd away from home tomorrow.

QPR at old trafford playing Man Utd: QPR have a player sent off after 13 minutes of play AND a penalty awarded against them. Is this dirty play from QPR or the "famous" big team bias the top teams get when playing the "minnows".

It's obvious big team bias and you guys know how much I hate QPR.
That decision was a disgrace

I sometimes wonder why spend so much money on players and players wages when for a fraction of the costs one can buy off officials. This is only an idle thought and not speculation. Presumably it's the "big team pressure" effect that gives rise to such decisions, but it ruins the game.

Television replays show minimal contact between the two players, Man Utd's Ashley Young and QPR's Shaun Derry, plus Ashley Young was miles off-side. The decision is being called controversial rather than fraudalent.

Final scores
Referee 2 QPR 1
Referee 2 Wigan 1.

Not only do these decisions affect the relegation battle (esp. when a player is sent off so early) but it also affects the Premiership title (to a little degree) and the competition for Champions league places.

Business back to normal at the basement end this weekend with the bottom five all losing.

Wigan and QPR were certainly unfortunate but that's no real consolation - bad luck comes with no points!

All are playing over the next three days. Vital fixtures - aren't they all?! Blackburn at home to Liverpool and QPR at home to Swansea seem to have the best chance of picking up points ....

Although Bolton lost away to Newcastle, it is generally agreed they played very well and would have been worth a draw if it hadn't been for a brilliant goal from Ben-Arfa and a standard goal from Papiss Cisse.

Villa are currently winning at home to Stoke.

I suspected that Blackburn would lose to Liverpool - I didn't think Steve Kean had quite the managerial intelligence to overcome Liverpool at home. Looking at the result however, it seems that Blackburn were well and truly beaten against a Liverpool side reduced to ten men after 24 minutes - with their goalkeeper being sent off. Liverpool had 12 shots on target and Blackburn had 4 shots on target. Final score Blackburn 2 Liverpool 3.

To be honest, Blackburn were very poor tonight against a team that was there for the taking. Yakabu's penalty miss was shocking, and if Liverpool didn't have Bellamy (who was a class apart), playing they'd have proabably have lost. But well done Liverpool for winning when they played average for most of the game.
Blackburns last 2 home games against Norwich & Wigan are must win games.
Tomorrow QPR are at home to Swansea, and Wigan are at home to Man Utd.

Complete nonsense Robins, Blackburn had one clear cut chance all night (Yakubus header) apart from that they where reduced from shooting from range with little power. Liverpool suffered last night because of the red card, it meant a reshape and left Carroll isolated so when we got the ball up to him there was nobody close to lay it off to, prior to the red card we where controlling the game and our first goal was a superb counter attack, the ball from Skrtel was fantastic.

Blackburn play their best football when they play physical, ugly football. When they try and pass and move they suffer. Honestly I'd like to see Blackburn go down, they are a very dirty team and play act at every opportunity, and last night the ref bought most of it. One incident that springs to mind is David Dunn lunging in studs up and not getting a booking because Spearing didn't fall over holding his leg, Maxi did the same tackle 30 seconds later and Dunn went down like he'd been shot resulting in a yellow card.

hampo171 wrote:Complete nonsense Robins, Blackburn had one clear cut chance all night (Yakubus header) apart from that they where reduced from shooting from range with little power. Liverpool suffered last night because of the red card, it meant a reshape and left Carroll isolated so when we got the ball up to him there was nobody close to lay it off to, prior to the red card we where controlling the game and our first goal was a superb counter attack, the ball from Skrtel was fantastic.

Blackburn play their best football when they play physical, ugly football. When they try and pass and move they suffer. Honestly I'd like to see Blackburn go down, they are a very dirty team and play act at every opportunity, and last night the ref bought most of it. One incident that springs to mind is David Dunn lunging in studs up and not getting a booking because Spearing didn't fall over holding his leg, Maxi did the same tackle 30 seconds later and Dunn went down like he'd been shot resulting in a yellow card.

Pot calling the kettle black with players going down like they'd been shot hampo (Suarez )

Btw from what I can see Robins was saying Blackburn were poor as well

I agree mate Suarez is awful for it, personally want it stamped out of the game.

I did say that Blackburn were poor and looked like a team going down. The point i was trying to make, was that Liverpool were there for the taking, and Blackburn just couldn't get near to the mark.

Sorry Tiger, that rant is fueled by pent up frustration of being a Liverpool fan

Blackburn should have really got something out of the game, we were playing one of the weakest teams we have all season, but more importantly the red card. I was actually impressed in the fighting spirit that the Liverpool players showed in the game, after the QPR result it wouldn't have been a surprise to see them lose all confidence when it was brought back to 2-2 and down to ten men.

3 points is 3 points though and I don't think there is much difference in quality between Doni and Brad Jones, we're going to miss Reina though.

A side note, Maxi's tackles are awful, he only knows to go sliding in two footed.

Woo - Woo

Wigan beat Man Utd 1-0!
QPR beating Swansea 3-0!

Wolves lost to Arsenal 3-0. Their goal difference is now -39.

Wolves had a player sent off after 7 mins - Sebastien Bassong was sent off and Arsenal awarded a penalty. Wolves appeared to have played well. I wonder whether it is the big club bias again.

It seems that Wigan had a perfectly scored goal disallowed in the first half. I wonder whether it is the ...

hampo171 wrote:Sorry Tiger, that rant is fueled by pent up frustration of being a Liverpool fan

No problem hampo.

Tonights results have just illustrated how poor Blackburn were, with both Wigan & QPR winning and moving out of the bottom 3.
Intrestingly Wigan's last 2 games, are Blackburn away, Wolves Home. Play like they did tonight in those 2 games and thry could be safe.

Update to the Race for the Bottom table

20: Wolves		19: Blackburn		18: Bolton		17: Wigan		16: QPR		15: A Villa
P33 GD-39 Pts22		P33 GD-25 Pts 28		P32 GD-29 Pts29		P33 GD-26 Pts31		P33 GD-18 Pts31		P32 GD-9 Pts 35
Sunderland (a)		Swansea (a)		Tottenham (h)		Arsenal (a)		West Brom (a)
Man City (h)		Norwich (h)		Swansea (h)		Fulham (a)		Tottenham (h)
Swansea (a)		Tottenham (a)		Aston Villa (a)		Newcastle (h)		Chelsea (a)
Everton (h)		Wigan (h)		Sunderland (a)		Blackburn (a)		Stoke (h)
Wigan (a)		Chelsea (a)		West Brom (h)		Wolves (h)		Man City (a)
				Stoke (a)

Swansea and Norwich are going to have a big say in whether or not Blackburn stay up. I saw the highlights of the Blackburn v Liverpool match, and Blackburn's defence was woeful.

Wolves are down. Blackburn must win there home games, as can't see them doing much in the away ones.After the Arsenal game, Wigan's fixtures are intresting, and i can see them doing enough to get out. Bolton will depend which team turns up, and if they can continue to score, but with there fixtures can see them just doing enough.QPR's fixture list is bad and they really need a win on saturday.

Five games left (other than for Bolton) - Wolves would have to win at least 4 of them (probably all 5) to get out. That's not happening.

Villa probably just need to pick up a couple of points to guarantee their safety, especially as their goal difference is effectively another point.

Wigan are going pretty well at the moment, and I can see them getting between 6 and 8 points in their remaining games (wins in the last 2, a couple of draws elsewhere), so they should get to about 38 points, which I think will be enough to keep them up.

QPR I can only see taking 4 or 5 points - don't see them getting anything off City or Chelsea, and anything they get against Spurs will be a bonus. Taking something from Stoke will be essential, and they'll need a performance against West Brom. 35 or 36 points, which I think won't be quite enough.

Bolton I think will get out - their fixture list is not too bad, with Spurs at home being their toughest fixture. I can certainly see 8 to 10 points from those fixtures, especially if Villa continue to be so poor.

Blackburn look to be in big trouble - can't see any points from trips to Spurs or Chelsea, so they have 3 games that I think become 'must win', and I just don't see them taking more than 6 points from these, leaving them around 34 points and probably finishing 2nd bottom.

all season i thought blackburn and wigan would stay up, and i still just about think that will be the case, wolves will be mathematically gone for the last game of the season, so if wigan need 3 points to stay up, id be fairly confident of them getting it, blackburn however, im not so sure, i just cant see where the points come from, and if it comes down to the last game of the season, then id certainly want to be in wigan and boltons shoes, if i were to put money on it now, id definately be putting money on wigan staying up, and a much smaller amount of money on blackburn

Looking at points gained over the last 10 games it's no surprise why Wolves are bottom having gained just 4 points.

Wigan are the form team having taken 16 points whilst Villa are the draw specialists with 8 points. Assuming Wigan continue their run of form and Villa claw a few more points they both should be safe.

Bolton, Blackburn and QPR all have 10 points from those games. It could well be that Bolton's game in hand is key here given the fact that most of Blakburn's points came some time ago and the difficult run in QPR face.

Wolves are dead and buied; Blackburn are staring into the abyss and it's squeaky bum time for both Bolton who may well stay up and QPR who probably won't.

I think unless Blackburn win today we are down, I don't think 6 points should we beat Norwich and Wigan will be enough to keep us up.

Lets hope we win today or I am proved wrong...

Since McCarthys sacking
Wolves P8 W0 D1 L7 F6 A24 GD-18 Pts+1

Wolves 0-3 Arsenal
Stoke 2-1 Wolves
Wolves 2-3 Bolton
Norwich 2-1 Wolves
Wolves 0-5 Man Utd
Wolves 0-2 Blackburn
Fulham 5-0 Wolves
Newcastle 2-2 Wolves

Prior to McCarthys sacking (taking the last 8 Premier league matches)
Wolves P8 W1 D3 L4 F9 A17 GD-8 Pts+6

Wolves 1-5 West Brom
QPR 1-2 Wolves
Wolves 0-3 Liverpool
Wolves 2-3 Aston Villa
Tottenham 1-1 Wolves
Wolves 1-2 Chelsea
Bolton 1-1 Wolves
Arsenal 1-1 Wolves

The biggest difference has been Wolves have lost defensive discipline since they sacked McCarthy - there is a huge difference in the goal difference. Whereas McCarthy was able to get draws and a win, Connor has only managed to get one draw and losses, because they are conceding more goals.

James_182 wrote:I think unless Blackburn win today we are down, I don't think 6 points should we beat Norwich and Wigan will be enough to keep us up.

Lets hope we win today or I am proved wrong...

At this stage a teams confidence is of key importance. Blackburns confidence has taken a knock (their defensive qualities is the key worry), they really need to generate confidence as soon as possible as they will be relegated otherwise.

Swansea 3 Blackburn 0
WBA 1 QPR 0
Sunderland 0 Wolves 0

Blackburn have shown why they are now strong candidates for relegation - very poor defence (come on Steve Kean - strengthen the defence!). QPR are strong but not quite good enough away from home - Hodgson shows he is tactically smarter than Hughes (when Hodgson has the home advantage).

After this weekends matches the remaining fixtures for Wigan and Bolton look to be quite kind for them.

Wolves could be automatically relegated after their match with Man City.

Steve Kean has said they need 2 wins and a draw to stay up. Now they have Norwich and Wigan at home and Spurs and Chelsea away. I can't see them picking up 6 points let alone seven!

Hope QPR go down. Something about Mark Huges gets on my last nerve.

azania wrote:Hope QPR go down. Something about Mark Huges gets on my last nerve.

He'll probably jump ship at the end of the reason anyway. I'm surprised his ego allowed him to take such a job.

I should have put money on it. Wigan after beating Man Utd at home, and "effectively" beating Chelsea away (ref gives two offside goals to Chelsea), beat Arsenal 1-2 at the Emirates.

Incredible recovery by Wigan this season after they were down and out.

Superb effort. I called a wigan 3-2 tonight, almost right

His side are playing with their hearts on their sleeves and everyone is pulling in the same directio. Martinez deserves credit for the new formation that has reujuvinised Wigan's season, suits them down to the ground.

He's also made some cracking signings in Moses and Baujesor. Gary Caldwell has been immense in recent games, real rock at the back.

Wolves definitely down, what a state they are in. Owners reacted to harshly and got rid of the man who could have kept them up. They missed the opportunity to get Bruce and for some reason appointed Terry O'Connor, who looks massively out of his depth.

Steve Kean has battled with the Rovers fans who are quite rightly angry with how their club is being run into the ground. Owners get rid of the man who stabilised the club, tries to sign ludicrous signings like Ronaldhino rather than truly focussing on building a team. They got in a yes man who, for all his supporters in the wake of the Rovers fans criticism, is a big problem, effectively ending hopes of survival with losing key dressing room players like Samba and not playing influential players like David Goodwillie. They are down and i'm sure the owners will be looking for a quick way out of Ewood, leaving Rovers with a host of problems including inevitibale relegation.
QPR will go down for me. Got a much tougher run in than Bolton who play far more winnable games for me. Can't see QPR getting anything from City last game of the season if they need to.

Update to the Race for the Bottom table

20: Wolves		19: Blackburn		18: Bolton		17: QPR		16: Wigan		15: A Villa
P34 GD-39 Pts23		P34 GD-28 Pts28		P32 GD-29 Pts29		P34 GD-19 Pts31		P34 GD-25 Pts34		P33 GD-13 Pts35
Man City (h)		Norwich (h)		Swansea (h)		Tottenham (h)		Fulham (a)		Sunderland (h)
Swansea (a)		Tottenham (a)		Aston Villa (a)		Chelsea (a)		Newcastle (h)		Bolton (h)
Everton (h)		Wigan (h)		Sunderland (a)		Stoke (h)		Blackburn (a)		West Brom (a)
Wigan (a)		Chelsea (a)		Tottenham (h)		Man City (a)		Wolves (h)		Tottenham (h)
				West Brom (h)						Norwich (a)
				Stoke (a)

Considering the remaining fixtures then I think it is looking like Wolves, Blackburn and QPR need to start thinking about the Championship for next season. I think relegation could leave both Wolves and Blackburn in a precarious position. I think QPR have the funding and support to get back into the premiership (assuming Hughes doesn't jump ship to Aston Villa or Spurs). Bolton have the additional advantage of knowing what needs to be done having played two games fewer than those around them.

Unbelievable QPR have another player sent off! Can they hold on to their 1-0 lead against Spurs.

How many dismissals is that now this season? Fine coming their way I presume.

I think it averages close to one every two games under Mark Hughes.

Anyway, QPR hold on to win, which means Wolves have to BEAT Man City tomorrow otherwise they are mathematicaly relegated. Even a draw against City will see them relegated.

I wonder if the Wolves board regret sacking Mick McCarthy now? I'd have still have expected them to have gone down with him in charge but I think they would have had a few more points.

FreekShow wrote:I wonder if the Wolves board regret sacking Mick McCarthy now? I'd have still have expected them to have gone down with him in charge but I think they would have had a few more points.

It couldn't have gone worse for Wolves after his sacking. The performance of Wolves has been distinctly worse compared to when McCarthy was in charge. The major problem is how are they going to get out of the championship (hopefully by not being relegated into the first division). Connor is clearly not the man for the Number One spot.

Although Bolton have TWO games in hand they are now 4 points behind Wigan and QPR with a worse goal difference. Hence, Bolton will have to work reasonably hard not to be relegated.

Some more twists and turns yesterday. I certainly didn't expect QPR to beat Spurs and thought Wigan might pick up a point at Fulham. Wrong as usual.

What next?