US Open - Matches

First topic message reminder :

Have changed the topic so that this thread can run through the tournament. Hope that's OK

JHM, when you sign 10y agreements, you will dance to their tune, or else.

No your not silly, have some confidence will you.

Kohli slapping Nadal, in a superb way.

It won't last

Roger Federer was just far too inconsistent in all facets of his game. It is a mere continuation of his form this season barring a few bright moments. I really cannot see where he goes from here - perhaps back to try the new larger racquet? Who knows?

Meanwhile, Kohlschreiber is putting up a great scrap against Nadal in a first set tie-break.

Set for Kohli!!

Rafa's got this in 4

yes kohli!

Kohlschreiber takes the first set against Nadal!  

Nadal in 4 then...  

Kohli always seems a bit awkward for Nadal when I watch their games.

Kohlschreiber takes the first set tie-break. I doubt whether he can keep this pace up though but nice to see Rafa being tested.

Lots of honesty from Fed in his interview

Jahu wrote:JHM, when you sign 10y agreements, you will dance to their tune, or else.

No your not silly, have some confidence will you.

Or else what? You lose a few million. So what - he can afford it. Fed is hardly the first athlete to carry on past their sell-by date in the vain hope of recapturing former glory. That's the mentality that sportsmen have.
Of course he's not enjoying losing - but he's too stubborn to give up on the idea that he can re-capture past glories one more time.
When you've got more money than you can ever spend and know that you can still earn millions after you retire, it's not about the money. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just....

Gasquet takes the second set on a tie-break and is level at one set all with Raonic.

US crowd are pulling for nadal big time.
A wonderful fh drive down the line from kohli gets a few disappointed ooooo's and ahhhh's, shame.

The BBC Radio commentary, to which I have now switched in bed, seem obsessed with the notion that Nadal will lose too

I'd be surprised if Rafa doesn't turn this around. Kohlschreiber holding his own at the moment...but for how much longer?

Nadal trying to out-do Federer on the missed breakpoints.

Currently 0/7

He has always looked up to Roger...

Tipsy saves match points on his own serve... Not sure if 2 or 3. Only saw the score at 15-40.

David Ferrer wraps up the win over Tipsarevic in four sets in a match lasting just under four hours. Raonic in total control in the third set against Gasquest leading 5-2.

Rafa breaks Kohlschreiber's serve to lead 4-3 and you feel the match tide has changed.

Ferrer comes through the tie-breaker though. Second man into the quarters. Now just one win away from a potential world no.3 spot if Murray should slip up in his next two matches.

Nadal finally breaks Kohlscreiber. Floodgates will surely open now. Time for bed...

Rafa takes set 2. This is where we see what Kohli is made of, starting well is fine but it's best of 5 for a reason

ChequeredJersey wrote:He has always looked up to Roger...

 , comment of the day, but last time Fed looked upto Nadal in Wimbledon so may be its Nadal's time I guess. 

Nadal is playing some good tennis here.... except when he generates a break point.
Kohli is giving as good as he's got...unlike 'He who has fallen from Grace' earlier...

Nadal has taken just one of 16 break points. That profligacy would be fatal against Nole or Murray.

It is unusual for him. Reckon he'll be fine though. He's also given Kohli 0 break points. Oh and it is 2 he has converted

ChequeredJersey wrote:It is unusual for him. Reckon he'll be fine though. He's also given Kohli 0 break points. Oh and it is 2 he has converted

At a stage before is 2nd break, he had converted just 1 of 16. He's improved though. But not the best day at the office. He's far from the lock for the title many have him as.

He's not a lock at all. But I think he's still favourite by some margin

Has he been broken at all this tournament?

He has also, even when he lost a set, never remotely looked like losing this match

He's been much better as the match has worn on. Looks a certainty for the Final. No way is he losing to Robredo or Ferrer if they meet.

Well, he's been broken. And Kohli should have broken at the beginning of the 4th set when he smacked a smash on break point into the net. Decent performance though from Nadal.

Gasquet finally wraps up his match against Milos - so it will be Rafa vs Robredo and Ferrer vs Gasquet in the QFs in the bottom half - three Spaniards.  Not bad.

Disappointed with Roger's exit, but Robredo was the better player today - as shocking as it still sounds to me.

Gasquet broke a big hoodoo for him: first QF on a GS since wimbledon 2007 after 11 attempts making the 4th round. He even saved a MP which shows he can hold his own now.

Or perhaps it just shows that Raonic can't close out a match yet? I'd like to be proven wrong but I can't see Gasquet troubling Ferrer. Likewise with Robredo And Nadal.

Me neither CC. Gasquet will probably lose in straight sets next. Was just pleased to see that gasquet is not the one choking for a change!

Yes I see what you mean. Perhaps he will just relax now and play uninhibited stuff against Ferrer. I doubt it. Robredo will be on top of the world right now but that will change once he faces Rafa Nadal.

ChequeredJersey wrote:He's not a lock at all. But I think he's still favourite by some margin

I still don't understand how anyone can say this. Favourite? Perhaps. But "by some margin" when he's not won a hard court slam for three years. How? An on form Novak, Andy or even Berdy are all capable of beating him over 5 sets

It isn't 2010, when these were all far more fey in their approach. And winning a load of three sets events means nothing as Murray found out in 2009/10

Yep the road to the final seem taylor made for Nadal now...
Gasquet throwing his socks on the court after the loss of the 1st set was the poor sportmanship moment of the week!

banbrotam wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:He's not a lock at all. But I think he's still favourite by some margin

I still don't understand how anyone can say this. Favourite? Perhaps. But "by some margin" when he's not won a hard court slam for three years. How? An on form Novak, Andy or even Berdy are all capable of beating him over 5 sets

It isn't 2010, when these were all far more fey in their approach. And winning a load of three sets events means nothing as Murray found out in 2009/10

I have Nadal as firm favourite due to these factors:-

The form player on hard courts this year by some way.

He has a comfortable run into the finals what with Robredo in the quartets and Ferrer in the semis unlike the other half of the draw.

His closest rivals don't come into the tournament in the best of form. Djokovic has suffered a noticeable dip in form whilst Murray hasn't set the world alight in recent Masters tournaments.

Don't get me wrong banbro I am not writing anyone's chances off but taking everything into account you have to make Rafa favourite.

banbrotam wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:He's not a lock at all. But I think he's still favourite by some margin

I still don't understand how anyone can say this. Favourite? Perhaps. But "by some margin" when he's not won a hard court slam for three years. How? An on form Novak, Andy or even Berdy are all capable of beating him over 5 sets

It isn't 2010, when these were all far more fey in their approach. And winning a load of three sets events means nothing as Murray found out in 2009/10

How can either of Murray or Djokovic be seen as good bets when they probably have to play each other? Rafa's draw is much easier. And Berdych might technically be capable of beating him in 5 sets but I'll believe that when I see it, then see the replay again then see the highlights

I don't necessarily disagree with Rafa been the favourite. It's the "clear" / "firm" favourite tag that I find puzzling.

For me, I still think Murray or Djoko are slight favourites - but can understand people describing Rafa as this as well

Neither Murray or Djokovic can be called favourites to reach the final so cannot see how they can possibly be favourites ahead of Rafa to win the title who looks a nailed on cert for the final. On top of that Novak is clearly going through a dip in confidence and form whilst, as I said, Andy's poor showings in Masters events lately cannot fill people with confidence.

How can Murray or Djokovic be slight favourites? If you mean either one of Djokovic or Murray winning rather than Nadal then yes but that makes either of them individually far less likely to win it.

I don't see the confusion. Murray or Djoko are more a favourite to win this event than Rafa

i.e. whoever gets to the final, for me, is the slight favourite

I remember we had everyone telling us that Rafa was the favourite at Wimbledon and we all know what happened there

Considering the recent (last year or so) slam record of the other two and the question marks over Rafa's ability to be at this best over seven rounds of a hard court slam (simply because he hasn't won one for three years) I continue to be amazed at why the Spaniard seems to be the accepted clear favourite

Of course it is true, that Andy and Novak could cancel each other out (and a hard match for Murray against Berdych wouldn't help) and be too mentally drained for the final - hence why I don't think Rafa been slight favourite is an issue

Rafa to my mind is clear favourite. His path to the final is wide open.

The only reservation I have is that the last couple of months have been Rafa's hard court game at its finest but there have been a few matches where he has just squeaked through. It will only take a small dip or a more resilient opponent and those narrow victories could turn into a narrow defeat.

Montreal v Novak was a good example. Novak was poor for chunks of that match and had his token brain fart in the 3rd set tie break. Yet it still took Rafa until a 3rd set tie break to get the win. Only a small improvement from Novak may have got him the win but his performance had room for a significant improvement.

Andy 2.0 v Rafa is the big unknown. But I feel pretty convinced Andy will come into the match seriously pumped up and ready to go to war and will produce his best tennis. This is the match up I'm most keen to see as it could be an epic.

Conversely, I strongly suspect that should Novak face Rafa, he'll choke big time. I don't think his mind is right to face the level of challenge Rafa presents.

The best final for the sake of the tournament will be Rafa v Andy.

But that's not how a favourite works. If you had to put money on someone, it would not be Murray or Djokovic, or at least it shouldn't be, as they have to play each other. Given that those three are going to be roughly 50-50 against each other that puts Rafa at a considerable mathematical advantage.

summerblues wrote:Gasquet finally wraps up his match against Milos - so it will be Rafa vs Robredo and Ferrer vs Gasquet in the QFs in the bottom half

Rafa could play all 3 at once and still win! Dream draw for him.

How likely is Nadal to make the final though? Extremely likely.

How likely is Murray to make the final? Well Berdych or Wawrinka won't be easy and then comes Djokovic. Two potentially draining matches there - just what you don't need before facing Rafa.

How likely is Djokovic to reach the final? I'd say he has about the same chance as Andy or perhaps slightly better owing to his potential QF.

To me it has been obvious that this is a far different Rafa that exited at Wimbledilon - better movement, more aggressive and more confident.