US Open - Matches

First topic message reminder :

Have changed the topic so that this thread can run through the tournament. Hope that's OK

ChequeredJersey wrote:But that's not how a favourite works. If you had to put money on someone, it would not be Murray or Djokovic, or at least it shouldn't be, as they have to play each other. Given that those three are going to be roughly 50-50 against each other that puts Rafa at a considerable mathematical advantage.

I'm not on about opening a book   I'm talking about who would win if it was a Rafa v Murray or Nole final

Of course working out the mathematics, you're 100% correct. But just because Man U and Chelsea play each other in the SF of the FA Cup, it doesn't mean that the winner wouldn't be favourite for the final

CaledonianCraig wrote:How likely is Nadal to make the final though? Extremely likely.

How likely is Murray to make the final? Well Berdych or Wawrinka won't be easy and then comes Djokovic. Two potentially draining matches there - just what you don't need before facing Rafa.

How likely is Djokovic to reach the final? I'd say he has about the same chance as Andy or perhaps slightly better owing to his potential QF.

To me it has been obvious that this is a far different Rafa that exited at Wimbledilon - better movement, more aggressive and more confident.

Agree with your last point!! I think the draining nature of matches for Murray are overstated. You're talking about him as it's his first trip through a slam draw. If (and I admit it's a fairly big "if") Andy gets to the final, I would make him slight favourite - simply because he's the holder and hasn't got worse

As things stand now though Rafa would be and is favourite with bookmakers and that won't change. Rafa will cruise into the final without losing a set from here so that will enhance his chances even more. I'd love to think Andy could do the same but I doubt it and same goes for Novak.

I am not writing Andy off but merely pointing out the magnitude of the task in front of him. If he pulls it off it will be his most arduous route to a slam win by some way.

CaledonianCraig wrote:How likely is Nadal to make the final though? Extremely likely.

I find it incredibly dull to be this certain of a finalist at this stage of the tournament.

Rafa's remaining opponents in his half are two Spaniards and a guy with a SHBH. It couldn't be more perfect for him.

His H2H against those players:

Ferrer 20-4
Robredo 6-0
Gasquet 10-0

Zzzzzzzzz.

Rafa has to be favourite. He has 1 very tough match left. Murray has probably 3. Novak probably 2.

I think he'll win it.

Agreed HM but it is what it is.

Still a bit in shock to hear that Federer lost. That being said alarm bells have been ringing for a while. Never thought Robredo would have the weopans to hurt Federer but he was playing great in the
1st set (only saw up to about 4-4). Federer at that stage was throwing in a real mix of the sublime and the shanks.

Anyway, onwards we go but really struggling to see how Nadal can be stopped. Fair play to Kohli for taking the match to him, a very under rated player. Draw really coming together for rafa but you can only beat who is in front of you. Murray and Djokovic have had pretty comfortable draws to date too in fairness.

Appalling that Novak and Andy are the youngest players remaining in the draw at aged 26  

You actually wonder if someone like Evans could do something sensational in the game

HM Murdoch wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:How likely is Nadal to make the final though? Extremely likely.

I find it incredibly dull to be this certain of a finalist at this stage of the tournament.

Rafa's remaining opponents in his half are two Spaniards and a guy with a SHBH. It couldn't be more perfect for him.

His H2H against those players:

Ferrer 20-4
Robredo 6-0
Gasquet 10-0

Zzzzzzzzz.

But isn't that always the case for Rafa? It would be difficult to construct a draw for him that would look challenging on paper. You could I suppose throw in Davydenko, Rosol and Darcis who on paper might look a little more challenging but I have a feeling those matches would be even more one sided than the ones you have mentioned. With the way Federer played last night I for one am pleased he isn't on this list (maybe some other time... ). Most of the time the excitement of watching Nadal play is his incredible game and watching him play with so much weight on his shoulders because he has so much to lose. When Novak went on that incredible winning streak against him it felt that the battle was for what Rafa owned. And even then Rafa kept the "holy grail"....  

Maybe Rafa lost all those matches with Novak to stop us from falling asleep?...

I agree Hawkeye with your point. If Nadal's had Berdych or Wawrinka or Youzhny, we would probably be saying how his head to head is so good that none of them are any threat.

The fact is we expect Nadal to pretty much beat everybody. Novak is the only player that seems to bring any uncertainty to the outcome of their matches. Even Murray who has improved dramatically has a bad match up with Rafa. When you think he has played Murray 3 times at Wimbledon and has dropped 1 set. In 2011 US open i remembering thinking, here is Murrays best surface and Rafa had been struggling against Novak and that was a real chance for Murray. Nadal beat him pretty comfortably again.

Nadal's record against his rivals is just phenomenal. I still feel that Novak is the only one who can stop him but in his current form I would favour Nadal slightly

HE, the reason this draw is predictable is that nobody in Rafa's side has the weapons to challenge him.

Having Murray in his half would have made it more interesting. Heck, even Berdych in his quarter would have made it better. Those guys at least have the weapons to threaten Rafa.

Worse still, they are guys who walk out on court thinking they are already beaten. Too many years of being totally owned can do that to a player!

Nadal would have been favourite, whatever the draw, because he is playing so well.

But it would be nice if he'd have to break a sweat in slam QFs and SFs!

Agree to an extent Murdoch that Berdych has the weopans but crucially I dont think he has the belief against Nadal. Also Murray on hard courts should have the upper hand on Rafa. However even on hard courts (Murrays best and Rafas worst surface) Rafa still has postive H2H !

Nadal is so often considered a clay court specialist but his results on all surfaces prove this to be untrue. For his legacy though I do feel he needs to maybe add another US open or Oz Open title to his collection. If he were to win another US open and another Oz open, he would be the greatest in my opinion. This coming from a Novak fan!

His tally of slams and unrivalled H2H record against all rivals is mind blowing and may never be replicated.

Cogen wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:Teaser: Federer has a 7-1 record on Armstrong.  Who was his only loss to and in what year?

Hmmmm...

Well, he won between 2004 and 2008, so those years are all out. 2009 he lost in the final to Del Potro so that would definitely have been on Ashe. 2010 and 2011 he lost to Djokovic in, I think, the semi-finals, and I can't imagine they wouldn't have been on Ashe either.

Soooo... maybe Berdych in the QF last year? Was their match on Armstrong... I can't remember...

If not, then I'll go back to 2003 when I think Nalbandian beat him in the... fourth round? Or was it quarters?

Can't remember any further back than that.  

Apparently it was in 2000 on his debut to the Special Juan, Juan-Carlos Ferrero.

Slasher, I agree, but at least Berdych is a player who, if he produces his best tennis, could make Rafa work and can give him a couple of scares along the way.

That's all I want. I expect Rafa to win whoever he plays but Ferrer, Robredo and Gasquet will just be a procession for him. It would be amazing if even drops a set and, for a slam QF and SF, that's poor entertainment.

I distinctly recall Robredo causing Nadal all sorts of troubles in Paris a few years back. Went after him hitting flat and hard and served for the match at 5-4 in the third. He choked it away after that to go down 7-5, but it was a close match and for large parts of it Nadal was being bossed, so maybe it's not such a foregone conclusion. Nadal wasn't that convincing against Kohlschreiber after all.

Having said that, I expect Nadal to make the final comfortably, and given that he should be much fresher than whoever comes through the opposite half, that gives him a big advantage.

HM Murdoch wrote:
I find it incredibly dull to be this certain of a finalist at this stage of the tournament.

Rafa's remaining opponents in his half are two Spaniards and a guy with a SHBH. It couldn't be more perfect for him.

His H2H against those players:

Ferrer 20-4
Robredo 6-0
Gasquet 10-0

Zzzzzzzzz.

This sums things up very succinctly and I could not agree more.

Rafa has been able to bring his best tennis to this USO and deserves full credit for an outstanding level of play through these early rounds.

That said, there has been very little to test him, and nor is there is much to worry about from the players listed by HMM. I think any bookmaker would be safe to offer odds of 100/1 for Robredo or Gasquet upsetting Rafa in this current vein of rich form (barring injury or some sort of dramatic meltdown) and maybe 50/1 in the case of Ferrer.

And so ......yes ....... as far as the certainty of Rafa making at least the Final goes, a bit of a snoozefest.

Once he has made it to the Final, I will be very surprised if he doesn't go home with the trophy. Still the clear favourite for me, and I'm seeing nothing to change that.

I kinda feel for Rafa in terms that his draw has become so much of a formality. I think we need to give credit where it's due to Robredo, Gasquet and Ferrer as I doubt anyone would've had them in their list probably bar Ferrer to make it this far. Robredo has had a stunning year so far and to come back as he has just shows life in the old dogs is becoming habit as with Ferrero, Hewitt and Haas to mention.

A Nadal victory is by no means guaranteed as if either Murray or Djokovic get to the final will be no easy victory.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I kinda feel for Rafa in terms that his draw has become so much of a formality. I think we need to give credit where it's due to Robredo, Gasquet and Ferrer as I doubt anyone would've had them in their list probably bar Ferrer to make it this far. Robredo has had a stunning year so far and to come back as he has just shows life in the old dogs is becoming habit as with Ferrero, Hewitt and Haas to mention.

A Nadal victory is by no means guaranteed as if either Murray or Djokovic get to the final will be no easy victory.

It's a fair point lk re "life in the old dogs" and the guys you mention have done well to stay competitive on the tour. But the fact remains they no longer have the armoury to threaten right at the business end of tournaments that really matter.

Age does inevitably catch up, as it always has done in all elite sport. Ferrero wasn't winning titles beyond 30, and I honestly can't remember when Hewitt last won anything of real note. Even Haas and Federer have just TWO 250's between them this year. Robredo has had a good season but with two very low key titles and an overall W/L ratio of 35-17, I would be inclined to describe it as very respectable rather than "stunning."

It's a sad indictment of the current state of tennis that we looking at the likes of Haas and Robredo turning in "good for their age" seasons as one of the main stories of the year.

The lack of youth breaking through is not a new issue but the decline of Federer, loss of form from Novak and inconsistency outside of the slams from Andy means we are not even getting the top guys going at it full tilt.

In my opinion, 2013 has been the worst year for tennis for quite a while.

lags72 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I kinda feel for Rafa in terms that his draw has become so much of a formality. I think we need to give credit where it's due to Robredo, Gasquet and Ferrer as I doubt anyone would've had them in their list probably bar Ferrer to make it this far. Robredo has had a stunning year so far and to come back as he has just shows life in the old dogs is becoming habit as with Ferrero, Hewitt and Haas to mention.

A Nadal victory is by no means guaranteed as if either Murray or Djokovic get to the final will be no easy victory.

It's a fair point lk re "life in the old dogs" and the guys you mention have done well to stay competitive on the tour. But the fact remains they no longer have the armoury to threaten right at the business end of tournaments that really matter.

Age does inevitably catch up, as it always has done in all elite sport. Ferrero wasn't winning titles beyond 30, and I honestly can't remember when Hewitt last won anything of real note. Even Haas and Federer have just TWO 250's between them this year. Robredo has had a good season but with two very low key titles and an overall W/L ratio of 35-17, I would be inclined to describe it as very respectable rather than "stunning."

Ferrero won Stuggart beyond 30 I think.
 
I don't expect Haas or Hewitt to clean up on the titles side of things, but it is nice for them to throw in performances now and then that serve a reminder of how good they are. I find it with these guys stunning given the injuries they have suffered in the prime of their careers.
 
The lack of youth coming through that can challenge these guys is frighteningly obsolete.

Yes, a disappointing year if measured in terms of any stand-out performances from new blood and what could be called 'youthful breakthrough'

There have been some great matches* during the course of the season but none of them involved any up & coming rookies.

How long before we get to see some different faces in Slam and Masters Finals ........  

*most notably IMO :

Wawrinka v Djokovic, AO
Federer v Nadal AO
Nadal v Djokovic RG
Del Potro v Djokovic W

I would add Delpo's performances at IW for outslicing Murray and Djokovic and nearly Nadal. Also Dimitrov v Djokovic at Madrid.

Delpo's performances earlier in the year make his very poor showing at this USO even more bewildering. But there was talk of another wrist injury coming in to the tourney - has he since expanded on this himself ...... ?

lags72 wrote:
Wawrinka v Djokovic, AO
Federer v Nadal AO
Nadal v Djokovic RG
Del Potro v Djokovic W

Federer v Nadal AO was 2012! It was Federer v Murray this year!

I'd agree with Stan v Novak AO and JMDP v Novak at Wimbledon.

Novak v Rafa at RG had an exciting finish but a lot of it was quite poor (chiefly down to Novak, Rafa played very well almost throughout).

Another one I enjoyed was JMDP v Rafa at IW.

There have been a lot of let downs. Andy was poor v Novak in Oz, Novak was poor v Andy at Wimbledon. Rafa v Ferrer was perhaps the worst slam final since Wimbledon 10.

Masters finals have featured ineffective performances from Raonic, Wawrinka and Federer. Ferrer nearly caused an upset in Miami but inevitably choked.

My pulse has not raced very often this year!

I sure got my dates wrong there HMM re the AO Fedal match.

And if I'm still thinking back to 2012, I guess that adds further strength to your assessment of 2013 as a less-than-sparkling season ..... !!

Yes, its been an odd season. Murray and Djokovic have basically been poor except in the slams. Fed has been poor everywhere and no one else can challenge Rafa. Consequently, all the masters bar probably Monte Carlo have been limp. DP's run at IW was good but I felt it was more a result of the poor form of others (Murray was laughably bad in particular) rather than a big step forwards by Juan.

As for the slams. Oz had some good matches bjt a poor final. RG had the drama of the SF but a poor final. Wimbledon had all the early excitement but a poor final. This one is probably shaping up for some good top half matches but whether we get a good fjnal may depend on what energy the top half finalist has left.

I would agree that 2013 has been a poor year for tennis, particularly Wimbledon. It was nice from the point of view of Murray fairytale victory but Nadal and Federer going out early left a big hole in the draw. Heck Djokovic played poor and somehow still made the final beating the likes of Berdych and Delpo. Actually come to think of it Delpo performance against Ferrer was excellent given the fall he took.

French open with exception of Nadal vs Djoko was pretty awful and I would agree that Murray was poor against Novak in Oz final and Novak was brutal in final of Wimbledon

Here is hoping the remaining matches at US open are exciting, a really good final at the very least.

Some of the younger players really need to start stepping up to the plate. When you think of Safin when he came out of nowhere to beat Sampras at US open and when Hewitt hit the scene and did something similar to Sampras. There is a real lack of talent or hunger among the younger generation.

Ivanovic's celebrations really irritate me, but I'll forgive her because she's Ana.

Id forgive Ana for a lot of things...

Djokovic to bagel Granollers at least once, I think.

I wonder if who wants to win the Hewitt/Youzhny match!!

Hewitt hopefully wins.

Hewitt  

Youznhy comes from a break down in the last set to seal a win over Hewitt.

Cracked open a beer, time to put the feet up and watch Djokovic

Shocking loss by Hewitt, that's going to really hurt for a while.
4-1 up in the 4th...5-2 up in the 5th....ouch...ouch....ouch!!!!

HM Murdoch wrote:

lags72 wrote:
Wawrinka v Djokovic, AO
Federer v Nadal AO
Nadal v Djokovic RG
Del Potro v Djokovic W

Federer v Nadal AO was 2012! It was Federer v Murray this year!

I'd agree with Stan v Novak AO and JMDP v Novak at Wimbledon.

Novak v Rafa at RG had an exciting finish but a lot of it was quite poor (chiefly down to Novak, Rafa played very well almost throughout).

Another one I enjoyed was JMDP v Rafa at IW.

There have been a lot of let downs. Andy was poor v Novak in Oz, Novak was poor v Andy at Wimbledon. Rafa v Ferrer was perhaps the worst slam final since Wimbledon 10.

Masters finals have featured ineffective performances from Raonic, Wawrinka and Federer. Ferrer nearly caused an upset in Miami but inevitably choked.

My pulse has not raced very often this year!

Fed v Murray was actually a good SF. Problem is, I suspect that Novak or Andy are not 100% fit and Roger obviously isn't and Rafa wasn't

Granollers is a dream opponent for Novak. It's 5-2 and Novak hasn't lost a point on serve yet!

Interesting that Youznhy and Robredo who were apparantly easy cannon fodder for Murray at Wimbledon are both in the QF of the next slam  

Is there any truth to the rumour that Granollers walked on court to the song "Digging in the Dirt" by Peter Gabriel?  

Nice little drop shot from Granollers there, i liked that. Novak has this in the bag though!

banbrotam wrote:Interesting that Youznhy and Robredo who were apparantly easy cannon fodder for Murray at Wimbledon are both in the QF of the next slam  

And we all know that an easy path to a GS final means it doesn't really count as a proper slam win. Just don't tell Rafa. Shhhh.

HM Murdoch wrote:Granollers is a dream opponent for Novak. It's 5-2 and Novak hasn't lost a point on serve yet!

And he goes the whole set without losing a point on serve!

Encouraging to see a bit of zip to Novak's game today.

The Special Juan wrote:Djokovic to bagel Granollers at least once, I think.

Good prediction!

Holy cow, Novak wins 6-3 6-0 6-0 against granollers! Didn't see it but that sounds like a pretty scary performance from Novak. Anybody see it? Granollers has a pretty big serve when I have watched him in the past

Well played Novak. Superb tennis.

Novak wins 6-3 6-0 6-0. The most one-sided match I've seen in a long time.

Novak was excellent but Granollers was terrible. Just awful.

It just came out in the interview that Novak won 25 points in a row on his serve to start the match! That's just crazy.

Granollers had played three straight five setters and was struggling in his doubles match yesterday. Not a shock that he had little left to give against the Djokovic machine.

Sounds like a massacre. Novak will now play Mikhail Youznhy in the quarters. The more of these wins he can get the more his mojo may return.