Wales vs the Boks

by maestegmafia Mon 24 Nov 2014, 8:21 am

First topic message reminder :

Wales vs the Boks - Page 6 Wales_10

Wales v South Africa
29 November 2014
KO: 14:30
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: John Lacey (Ireland)

****
Another week of misery for us Welshmen. What a shame, so much to be proud of vs the ABs but the scoreline does not reflect that.

These boys have shown they can push SA and it would be good to take something from this Autumn Series though I doubt many of expect we will.

Will be missing some good players who have to return to their clubs. So will SA.

We also have a good number of worrying injuries. Not sure if the team announcement will be Tuesday or not...?

The boks fielded a few experimental selections last Saturday against Italy in a weakened team. I imagine they will change a few players around and we will see a side similar to that which beat England.

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 6:49 am

Match preview

Jan de Koning Rugby 365 wrote:Wales, who haven't beaten a Southern Hemisphere Tier One team since 2008, are desperate to end a 23-match losing streak when they host South Africa in Cardiff on Saturday.

The last Welsh victory over a SANZAR nation was a 21-18 win over Australia in November 2008, also coach Warren Gatland's sole winning performance against either the Wallabies, Springboks or All Blacks in 27 matches since he took charge.

Despite the media outcry and suggestions that his job is on the line, the Welsh coach, Gatland, stood firm in his believe that they will be a genuine threat at next year's World Cup.

He feels they have a real chance against a Springbok team deprived of a host of frontline players.

However, he knows South Africa will not be a roll-over, the Boks having notched up the year's sole defeat of New Zealand and also having only ever lost to Wales once in 29 clashes.

It promises to be a humdinger of a Test match at the Millennium Stadium, where Wales went down 16-34 to the All Blacks last week - still leading with 12 minutes to play, before three late tries saw the Kiwis race clear.

We keep saying to ourselves, we know we are good enough and we keep putting ourselves into positions to win these games","Gatland said ahead of the arrival of South Africa.

"Look how close they have been," he said of their losses to Australia (28-33) and New Zealand (16-34), with a 17-13 win over Fiji sandwiched in between

"There is no-one more disappointed than myself," the Welsh coach said of a recent run that also include two defeats to the Boks in June - 16-38 and 30-31.

He is certainly well supported by his captain, Sam Warburton, who also feels that victory over the Boks is not as fanciful a suggestion as some are claiming.

"I always say why not?" Warburton said, adding: "The players know they are good enough - it will happen.

"We have worked too hard to keep losing these games.

"I agree with Warren [Gatland] it is not a fitness issue," he said of their failure to close out matches in the last 10 minutes.

The statistics may suggest otherwise.

The last time South Africa played Wales, the Boks came back from deficits of 0-17 and 17-30 to triumph 31-30 in Nelspruit.

The Springbok coach, Heyneke Meyer, used those encounters as a warning to his team - ensuring there's no complacency or a lack of focus, which cost them so dearly in their opening tour match against Ireland.

The Boks opened their November series with a 15-29 defeat by Ireland, but bounced back to beat England 31-28 and then eased past Italy (22-6).

"When we played them [in June] it was two of the toughest games we've had this year, including the Rugby Championship," Meyer said.

The Bok coach felt those games could have gone either way and suggested that against New Zealand Wales did well - despite conceding three late tries.

"I believe Wales is a quality side," Meyer said, adding: "I'm not sure why they have lost it in the last 10 minutes, when they could have won it. It doesn't make them a bad side."

He said Wales have a very good forward pack, their defence is up there with the best in the world and they can play a very good tactical game.

"Their backs are big and strong and if they get quick ball on the front foot they are very dangerous."

Gatland has made three enforced changes to his run-on team, Liam Williams notably coming in for injured Northampton wing George North.

Veteran prop Gethin Jenkins and hooker Scott Baldwin take over from Paul James and Richard Hibbard, who have returned to club duty with Bath and Gloucester respectively since Saturday's match falls outside the international Test window.

Meyer made eight changes to his team from the one that beat Italy last week.

Prop Tendai Mtawarira, hooker Bismarck du Plessis, fullback Willie le Roux, as well as wings Cornal Hendricks and Lwazi Mvovo will all start.

The changes in the back three were required because Johan Goosen (Racing Metro), Bryan Habana (Toulon) and JP Pietersen (Japan), who started against the Azzurri, are not available, while the two changes to the front row are rotational.

Both teams still have a few matches to fine-tune their squads - Wales in the Six Nations and the Boks in the Rugby Championships - but both coaches know that time is precious and this game is vital.

"The year-end Test are not a competition, it's about using it to play against the best teams in the world who have come off really strong campaigns to prepare potentially for the Six Nations, which is our competition, and the World Cup," he said.

"What we're going to be judged on is our performance in the World Cup and our whole focus is on getting out of that pool in the World Cup.

"That's been the whole emphasis of this campaign and it'll be the same with the Six Nations."

Players to watch:

For Wales: You can always look at powerful Jamie Roberts and the guile of Jonathan Davies in the midfield. Taulupe Faletau has not been as effective as he can be, while Sam Warburton will always push the envelope at the breakdown. You also wonder if Mike Phillips will be a hindrance or an asset when he comes off the bench.

For South Africa: The return of Willie le Roux cat fullback creates an expectation of exciting things to come and sometimes he is simply sublime. Cornal Hendricks, after bursting onto the scene, has gone flat and needs a good performance. Lwazi Mvovo also gets a rare start on the other wing and will have to use the opportunity to press his claim for more regular appearances in the matchday squad. Pat Lambie will be in the spotlight because of the competition at flyhalf, as will Handré Pollard when he comes off the bench.

Head to head: There are some intriguing battles all over the park, but none will be more interesting than in midfield - the Welsh duo of Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts against the Springbok pair of Jan Serfontein and Jean de Villiers. Probing with brute force comes to mind when trying to describe what will happen at the Millennium Stadium. The other face-off worth looking at i between two seasoned and grizzled locks - the much younger (29year-old) Alun Wyn Jones (Wales) against Victor Matfield (37).

Recent results:
2014: South Africa won 31-30, Nelspruit
2014: South Africa won 38-16, Durban
2013: South Africa won 24-15, Cardiff
2011: South Africa won 17-16, Wellington (World Cup pool match)
2010: South Africa won 29-25, Cardiff
2010: South Africa won 34-31, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 20-15, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21, Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17, Bloemfontein
2007: South Africa won 34-12, Cardiff

Prediction: You never write off Wales. Go look at the first hour of their encounters against both New Zealand and Australia to find reasons why they are indeed a threat. South Africa will have to soak up lots of pressure if they are to come out on top. No doubt Wales will ask lots of questions, but we feel South Africa will sneak a late winner - by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Emyr Phillips, 17 Aaron Jarvis, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 James King, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Scott Williams.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Lodewyk de Jager, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Handré Pollard, 23 Damian de Allende.

Date: Saturday, November 29
Venue: Millennium Stadium Cardiff
Kick-off: 14.30 (14.30 GMT; 16.30 SA time)
Expected weather: The roof will be closed, as always, but it will be damp underfoot and even though the surface has improved, it still cuts up at times. High of 12°C and low of 7°C
Referee: John Lacey (Ireland)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), Pascal Gauzère (France)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 6:49 am

I personally think this match is Wales' to lose.

by **Pal Joey** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:03 am

In a real or moral sense, Biltong?

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:08 am

real mate. Moral doesn't cut it anymore, although if we do manage to win with that team we should take the honours morally, literally, figuratively and gleefully.

by **Pal Joey** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:16 am

Without having read back in the thread recently - are you concerned that too many changes have been made for the Boks?

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:25 am

15 Willie le Roux,
14 Cornal Hendricks,
13 Jan Serfontein,
12 Jean de Villiers (captain),
11 Lwazi Mvovo,
10 Pat Lambie,
9 Cobus Reinach,
8 Duane Vermeulen,
7 Teboho Mohoje,
6 Marcell Coetzee,
5 Victor Matfield,
4 Eben Etzebeth,
3 Coenie Oosthuizen,
2 Bismarck du Plessis,
1 Tendai Mtawarira.

If you look at the team:

Our back three should be a huge area of concern defensively, Hendricks is a class finisher, but poor under the high ball and iffy on defence, Willie himself is not the greatest defender and Mvovo neither.

Our midfield combination has struggled this year, de Villiers keeps shooting the line leaving Serfontein in a hole (literally), on attack thy are one dimensional.

Lambie and Reinach is at least a breath of fresh air.

OUr backrow is compromised with Oupa, it isn't that he is a bad player, but his workrate is poor, our locking combination have been severely influenced by injury this year, and the mere fact that Victor keeps being selected means we lose physicality and power.

Our front row is going to be penalised into kingdom come tomorrow because Coenie Oosthuizen scrums in AT EVERY SCRUM, and the Irish referee is going to blow him to pieces.

Our bench players is at least stronger but have not had much game time. So theywill be diconbobulated when they come on.

by bedfordwelsh Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:31 am

People go on about our results against the SH and yes they are bad but what Welsh coach can really say he has a good record against them?

We have only ever beaten the Boks once under Henry and we haven't beaten the ABs since the fiftys.

Yes we play them more but that's down to the relative ease of travel these days compared to donkeys years ago.

by LordDowlais Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:41 am

I will be very, very, surprised if Wales won on Saturday, any one of the three SH sides could put out what ever players they liked, we would still lose. We just do not seem to know how to beat any of you, and what boils my urine the most is, England or Ireland will show one of you your own arris one week, and then Wales would have no issues with playing England or Ireland the week after, I do not know what it is, it's almost as if we do not want to beat any of you. steam

by bedfordwelsh Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:43 am

LD,

However we get told its not mental or psychological. Well if that's the case we obviously just not good enough no matter what anyone says or thinks.

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:49 am

BedfordWelsh, Ireland beat us by outsmarting us, hell Scotland manages to beat us now and then by outsmarting us.

Wales does the same thing over and over expecting a different result, that is lunacy I my book.

However I really believe tomorrow Wales won't need anything special. That is not a great Bok team, it is tired and the combinations apart from Reinach and Lambie isn't going to work.

The Boks have digressed this year, badly. And on top of that we have been in poor form this month.

by bedfordwelsh Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:55 am

Bil,

I really just don't think we are mentally strong enough, all the SH sides know that if they are in the game with 5-10 mins to go then it will play on our minds.

Maybe this weekend will be the time to prove doubters wrong and I obviously hope we do but until I see it I won't believe it.

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 8:58 am

You'll be happy tomorrow mate I don't see us winning this one, and in all honesty it peeves me off that I have to feel this way about the Boks

by bedfordwelsh Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:04 am

Biltong wrote:You'll be happy tomorrow mate I don't see us winning this one, and in all honesty it peeves me off that I have to feel this way about the Boks

lol,

One of us will be just be gentle with us and gracious in Victory please mate Wink

by LordDowlais Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:04 am

Bil, you lot only just beat the worlds best a few week ago. Headscratch

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:24 am

LordDowlais wrote:Bil, you lot only just beat the worlds best a few week ago.

Mate that was nearly 2 months ago at home, we always lift for our home match against NZ and it was our first win against them under Meyer.

Since the we have lost to Ireland, struggled against Italy and England, and come to the end of a long year.

Instead of Habana we have Mvovo who last played a test in 2012. Our form has regressed, I cannot explain to you how much poorer we are currently when compared to Ellispark 2 months ago.

Ellispark was a dry day on a hard and fast surface.

Millenium stadium has soft ground, the pitch seems to have issues, our form is bad, some weak selections.

BUt hey, I can only repeat these issues so many times. Lets see what tomorrow brings (there is a song with those lyrics Wink

)

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:26 am

bedfordwelsh wrote:
Biltong wrote:You'll be happy tomorrow mate I don't see us winning this one, and in all honesty it peeves me off that I have to feel this way about the Boks

lol,

One of us will be just be gentle with us and gracious in Victory please mate

I am always gentle when we win mate, but I suspect the Welsh supporters after tomorrow will be less gentle with us Wink

by mckay1402 Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:26 am

I think the only way Wales can really win is if they actually batter SA. People bang on about the NZ test and how Wales were in a position to win it and threw it away but just before that game people were talking about this NZ team as the best ever. To be in front against the best rugby team ever going into the final 10 minutes is a pretty good place to be I think.

by FerN Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:40 am

Well, there were a few times when we won when we shouldn't have. I always had the believe that we could close it out then and maybe rattle the Welsh. This time around I don't have that believe. Unless the Wales implodes and give it to us, I feel that If we aren't in front the last 10 minutes, we are going to lose.

Edit: After that it will probably be open season for the Wales. The moment Ireland got one win over us they started beating us regularly. Maybe the same thing will happen to Wales. I think there is a very real psychological element at play here. From 2010 onwards most of the Bok vs Wales games could have gone either way, and some should have gone Wales way but none did.

by FerN Fri 28 Nov 2014, 9:49 am

http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Warburton-100-certain-of-big-win-20141128

Why do the Welsh put so much pressure on themselves. Having to say it is only a matter of time before they win a SH team already adds pressure on the team. And if they lose it is just going to add more fuel to the Wales can't play SH teams fire.

by **Biltong** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 10:01 am

"The players know they are good enough and I can say with 100% certainty that it will happen,"

Nothing wrong with that, you would argue if you play three teams often enough the chances are 100% you will eventually win one. It isn't like Wales is a bad team, is it?

by Guest Fri 28 Nov 2014, 10:42 am

I don't see us winning tomorrow, as much as I want to. I expect us to be pretty close, but somehow blow it in the final quarter again. I also see us picking up a few knocks to get people further irritated by this extra AI farce.

by **George Carlin** Fri 28 Nov 2014, 11:16 am

FerN wrote:http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Warburton-100-certain-of-big-win-20141128

Why do the Welsh put so much pressure on themselves. Having to say it is only a matter of time before they win a SH team already adds pressure on the team. And if they lose it is just going to add more fuel to the Wales can't play SH teams fire.

More stunt journalism. What exactly is Sam supposed to say? "No, the mood in the camp is terrible. I've recently started mixing gin with Valium and we're just praying to Barry John that we can keep the spanking we'll receive to within 30 points".

by wales606 Fri 28 Nov 2014, 11:53 am

STOP RAISING MY HOPES BILTONG!

It's very mean,

the bookies say we are going to lose and they are always right....at least until the final whistle blows.

South Africa are the 2nd best team in the world and we are 6th. Now shhhhhhhh

by GavinDragon Fri 28 Nov 2014, 1:43 pm

good to see someone in the media talking some sense

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-vs-south-africa-mike-8192550

by Guest Fri 28 Nov 2014, 2:08 pm

We all loved these last time. Different journo now. Simon Thomas is a bit better than Andy Bowell.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-vs-south-africa-how-8193387

by GavinDragon Fri 28 Nov 2014, 2:52 pm

111-114 I would say that is a fair relection overall

by bedfordwelsh Fri 28 Nov 2014, 2:54 pm

Biltong wrote:
bedfordwelsh wrote:
Biltong wrote:You'll be happy tomorrow mate I don't see us winning this one, and in all honesty it peeves me off that I have to feel this way about the Boks

lol,

One of us will be just be gentle with us and gracious in Victory please mate

I am always gentle when we win mate, but I suspect the Welsh supporters after tomorrow will be less gentle with us

Bilt,

The real fans will be gentle mate no worries because let's be honest even IF we win our record is still nothing to shout home about.

by GavinDragon Fri 28 Nov 2014, 2:59 pm

it seems like a lose lose situation for us, if we lose, it will add to the pressure greatly, even if (and it is a big if) we win it will not completely satisfy people

by Guest Fri 28 Nov 2014, 4:43 pm

GavinDragon wrote:111-114 I would say that is a fair relection overall

Yeah, there's a few I don't agree with but it's much better than Bowell.

Personally, I don't rate AWJ that highly, especially as good as Matfield. I also thought he undersold Rhys Webb a little. That's all I can remember off the top of my head.

by Guest Fri 28 Nov 2014, 5:24 pm

Mike Phillips and Jarvis are not fully fit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/30252853

Drop Phillips immediately, a fully fit Phillips isn't good enough anymore let alone one whos ill.

by ScarletSpiderman Fri 28 Nov 2014, 5:30 pm

Iron Mike - drop both a tight head covering loose head, and injured? Total joke when you got a fit loose head waiting to be used.

by No9 Fri 28 Nov 2014, 6:20 pm

Lot of mutual respect going on here guys with no-one to prepared to win this game...

So go on, I'll say it... Wales to win this game by 2 points... Hug

It will put a nice shiny gloss over those cracks before the RWC. Whistle

by Taylorman Fri 28 Nov 2014, 7:31 pm

Can't help feeling the chips are on the NH sides for both matches this weekend. Both SA and Oz are vulnerable at this time, are away, and are at the end of a very tough year. Losses here will do wonders for both sides next year anyway wanting to come back with a point to prove. . Signs are there both wins are on the cards.

by maestegmafia Sat 29 Nov 2014, 12:40 am

No9 wrote:Lot of mutual respect going on here guys with no-one to prepared to win this game...

So go on, I'll say it... Wales to win this game by 2 points...

It will put a nice shiny gloss over those cracks before the RWC.

It will boost confidence for sure. I don't think Wales paper over the cracks. Their squad and coaches seem too insular.

by maestegmafia Sat 29 Nov 2014, 12:42 am

I think we should see another good performance, hopefully another great test match. Hopefully, no offence to our Bok supporting mates on here we will see a deserved win for Wales too

by Taylorman Sat 29 Nov 2014, 12:49 am

deserved?...'earned' I hope you mean.

by maestegmafia Sat 29 Nov 2014, 8:20 am

Taylorman wrote:deserved?...'earned' I hope you mean.

Either way...? So long as there is effort and reward.

by rainbow-warrior Sat 29 Nov 2014, 8:50 am

Mass clear out of the bench on 65 is the failing of Wales. I doubt very much the AB's would have scored so many in the last 10 had we been more prudent. Wales play the same kind of game as last week we could win well.

by Guest Sat 29 Nov 2014, 10:09 am

rainbow-warrior wrote:Mass clear out of the bench on 65 is the failing of Wales. I doubt very much the AB's would have scored so many in the last 10 had we been more prudent. Wales play the same kind of game as last week we could win well.

They have to clear out the bench if the players are knackered after 60 minutes of blitz defense.

by **Pal Joey** Sat 29 Nov 2014, 10:37 am

IronMike wrote:
rainbow-warrior wrote:Mass clear out of the bench on 65 is the failing of Wales. I doubt very much the AB's would have scored so many in the last 10 had we been more prudent. Wales play the same kind of game as last week we could win well.

They have to clear out the bench if the players are knackered after 60 minutes of blitz defense.

Not sure if it should be done all at once though. Surely it's better to stagger the subs?

Australia guilty of doing it too - you could say it takes the steam completely out of any impetus they might have. In my mind that's a huge risk to take. Why not (depending on the game situation of course) 2 @ 50-55, 2-3 @ between 55-65... and last 2-3 (if required) in the last 10-15 mins?

Apart from injury, I can never understand those 78m ones. Whilst it may slow down the play in the dying stages and eat up some time it can also easily backfire if the choice/timing is not carefully made. Seen that happen a few times and at others times produce some very tenuous "just held on"s.

by Guest Sat 29 Nov 2014, 11:49 am

The Loaded Dog wrote:
IronMike wrote:
rainbow-warrior wrote:Mass clear out of the bench on 65 is the failing of Wales. I doubt very much the AB's would have scored so many in the last 10 had we been more prudent. Wales play the same kind of game as last week we could win well.

They have to clear out the bench if the players are knackered after 60 minutes of blitz defense.

Not sure if it should be done all at once though. Surely it's better to stagger the subs?

Australia guilty of doing it too - you could say it takes the steam completely out of any impetus they might have. In my mind that's a huge risk to take. Why not (depending on the game situation of course) 2 @ 50-55, 2-3 @ between 55-65... and last 2-3 (if required) in the last 10-15 mins?

Apart from injury, I can never understand those 78m ones. Whilst it may slow down the play in the dying stages and eat up some time it can also easily backfire if the choice/timing is not carefully made. Seen that happen a few times and at others times produce some very tenuous "just held on"s.

I don't like mass replacements either, they disrupt the team, and we have very few bench players at the moment who can actually make an impact.

On a side note, Warren Gatland admits he has sleepless nights after losses, no wonder he looks so tired

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/30254430

by The Saint Sat 29 Nov 2014, 12:12 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Taylorman wrote:deserved?...'earned' I hope you mean.

Either way...? So long as there is effort and reward.

I think they have to earn it first so that they can deserve it.

by The Saint Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:21 pm

Meyer said a lot of kind words about Wales (the rugby team and nation) moments ago. Personally I think he's after the Wales job...

by nathan Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:23 pm

Instead of the South Africa job?

by The Saint Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:32 pm

Not too smart are you Nathan.

by nathan Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:33 pm

How post without insulting someone you child

by The Saint Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:39 pm

nathan wrote:How post without insulting someone you child

Fancy rephrasing this? thumbsup

by Nematode Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:42 pm

The commentary from Brits and the other one (not JD) is appalling.

by nathan Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:42 pm

Why? can't you work it out yourself?

by glamorganalun Sat 29 Nov 2014, 2:45 pm

Just reminded Priestland is on the bench to throw the game at the end.

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