Irish provinces NEWS and GOSSIP thread part 2

by **profitius** Tue 12 Sep 2017, 5:16 pm

First topic message reminder :

Continued from this one. https://www.606v2.com/t63658-irish-provinces-news-gossip-thread-2016-17
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by SecretFly Thu 30 May 2019, 11:57 am

Collapse2005 wrote:Speaking of odds is anyone here good at statistical problems?

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?”

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Thoughts?

I don't know about other people but I'd simply tell him in a serious tone: "I said Door 1 not 3."

I'm not sure how much of a statistical problem it is as I think you'd need to have evidence of an actual show that used such techniques in order to apply statistical perameters?

I think it's a simple 50/50. The guy either wants to fool you into thinking you picked the right door by giving you a second option to pick another door (meaning that you will stick with 1 - the door he knows holds another goat) - OR - the guy wants you to think you're smarter than he is, that you're on to him, that you know he's trying to coax you to stay with 1 when the car is actually behind the door he's suggesting to you.

I think statistics would be working out what kind of showman the host is. Does he like risk? Does he enjoy sustaining tension in order to increase value of show and perhaps his future salary? Does he enjoy contestants winning big or does he get more fun out of seeing contestants lose. Is he risk averse and would be more likely just to open door 1 for you if that was the door you first picked?

Personally, if I choose a number, I stick with it. So I might have chosen wrong - so be it. The chances are that I might also choose right. Same odds as the person who changes their selections when prompted.... I think.

by BamBam Thu 30 May 2019, 12:04 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:Speaking of odds is anyone here good at statistical problems?

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?”

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Thoughts?

Google "Monty Hall problem" its a famous stats problem

The short answer is that you double your chances of winning by switching to door number 2. The key bit is that the host knows which door has the prize, and chooses not to open that door

by SecretFly Thu 30 May 2019, 12:07 pm

Double your chances but still risk losing.

I don't get the logic of betting mostly.... and mostly most bookies thrive on that fact with their clientele Wink

by Kingshu Thu 30 May 2019, 1:03 pm

When you pick the door its a 1 in 3 chance of being a car, once one is opened if you change your odds increase to 50:50.
Think if there were 100 doors your odds of the car are 100 to one, tmyou pick 59, and he opens all the doors bur 37 and 59, iwould you now switch?

by **rodders** Thu 30 May 2019, 1:12 pm

Let me guess, this is a metaphor for the squad selection and Dave Kearney is the goat?

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 2:00 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Speaking of odds is anyone here good at statistical problems?

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?”

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Thoughts?

I don't know about other people but I'd simply tell him in a serious tone: "I said Door 1 not 3."

I'm not sure how much of a statistical problem it is as I think you'd need to have evidence of an actual show that used such techniques in order to apply statistical perameters?

I think it's a simple 50/50. The guy either wants to fool you into thinking you picked the right door by giving you a second option to pick another door (meaning that you will stick with 1 - the door he knows holds another goat) - OR - the guy wants you to think you're smarter than he is, that you're on to him, that you know he's trying to coax you to stay with 1 when the car is actually behind the door he's suggesting to you.

I think statistics would be working out what kind of showman the host is. Does he like risk? Does he enjoy sustaining tension in order to increase value of show and perhaps his future salary? Does he enjoy contestants winning big or does he get more fun out of seeing contestants lose. Is he risk averse and would be more likely just to open door 1 for you if that was the door you first picked?

Personally, if I choose a number, I stick with it. So I might have chosen wrong - so be it. The chances are that I might also choose right. Same odds as the person who changes their selections when prompted.... I think.

Ha ha Fly. No youre wrong the odds are better to change your selection. Its called the Monty Hall problem.

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 2:01 pm

BamBam wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Speaking of odds is anyone here good at statistical problems?

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?”

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Thoughts?

Google "Monty Hall problem" its a famous stats problem

The short answer is that you double your chances of winning by switching to door number 2. The key bit is that the host knows which door has the prize, and chooses not to open that door

Correct

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 2:03 pm

rodders wrote:Let me guess, this is a metaphor for the squad selection and Dave Kearney is the goat?

Close, Schmidt is the host and the fans are contestants. They think the odds are in favour of sticking but they are of course wrong.

by **rodders** Thu 30 May 2019, 2:07 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
rodders wrote:Let me guess, this is a metaphor for the squad selection and Dave Kearney is the goat?

Close, Schmidt is the host and the fans are contestants. They think the odds are in favour of sticking but they are of course wrong.

I'll go for door 2, apparently Simon Zebo is behind it...

by **rodders** Thu 30 May 2019, 2:13 pm

Speaking of exiled wingers, anybody following this Tom O'Flaherty guy?

I'm assuming he qualifies for Ireland somehow?

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 2:29 pm

rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
rodders wrote:Let me guess, this is a metaphor for the squad selection and Dave Kearney is the goat?

Close, Schmidt is the host and the fans are contestants. They think the odds are in favour of sticking but they are of course wrong.

I'll go for door 2, apparently Simon Zebo is behind it...

Unfortunately he isn't even in the room. We could probably do with him now.

by **rodders** Thu 30 May 2019, 3:39 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
rodders wrote:Let me guess, this is a metaphor for the squad selection and Dave Kearney is the goat?

Close, Schmidt is the host and the fans are contestants. They think the odds are in favour of sticking but they are of course wrong.

I'll go for door 2, apparently Simon Zebo is behind it...

Unfortunately he isn't even in the room. We could probably do with him now.

He's no Mike Haley .... Run

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 3:48 pm

Players are often considered sh1t until they have been given a chance to really prove themselves. I remember watching Tommy Bowe in his 4th test for Ireland in 2005 against New Zealand thinking this is one of the worst players I have seen play for Ireland in a while. To put his performance into context Anthony beer belly Horgan was playing on the other wing and didn't look that bad by comparison. It wasn't long before Bowe really shone though.

by **rodders** Thu 30 May 2019, 3:59 pm

That is true, I thought both Bowe and Stockdale were both poor enough when I first saw them, I couldn't have imagined they'd have reached the levels the did.

by Collapse2005 Thu 30 May 2019, 4:14 pm

rodders wrote:That is true, I thought both Bowe and Stockdale were both poor enough when I first saw them, I couldn't have imagined they'd have reached the levels the did.

Yeah Murray too. Some players just seem to come out of nowhere.

by Collapse2005 Tue 04 Jun 2019, 2:28 pm

Graham Rountree signs on at Munster as forwards coach. Nice bit of business.

by SecretFly Tue 04 Jun 2019, 2:46 pm

rodders wrote:That is true, I thought both Bowe and Stockdale were both poor enough when I first saw them, I couldn't have imagined they'd have reached the levels the did.

Steady. I know they get paid well enough by Irish standards but they're not exactly billionaires yet.

by **rodders** Tue 04 Jun 2019, 4:05 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:Graham Rountree signs on at Munster as forwards coach. Nice bit of business.

Crikey Farrell must have serious influence with the IRFU.

by Collapse2005 Tue 04 Jun 2019, 4:11 pm

Yeah must do. Imagine, three of the best English coaches now work in Ireland. Who would have thought?!?

by SecretFly Tue 04 Jun 2019, 4:44 pm

Let's hope they now go prove it in more potent terms than in recent months. It hasn't been the greatest few months for Irish rugby. Time for th English lads to roll up the sleeves now, start learning a few old staple rebel songs to sing in the dressing rooms and make us roar at both Provincial level And International.

Is that the real reason Rountree is coming in to Munster btw? So that he can have his Irish coaching residency ticket already stamped when Farrell swoops in to take him to International later this year?

by Collapse2005 Tue 04 Jun 2019, 4:54 pm

Cant say I agree really. 3rd in 6 nations, 2nd in champions cup and first in Pro 14 is never a bad year. B minus. Under 20s grand slam and they just spanked England at the under 20s RWC.

by Brendan Tue 04 Jun 2019, 5:07 pm

It's good that Munster is still seen as a good job. You wonder if people outside the league would see Munster as a Leicester once good team but a bad place for your reputation as the fans want trophies and the team aren't at that level.

by thebandwagonsociety Tue 04 Jun 2019, 5:47 pm

I've always found munster fans to be quite honest and realistic on their team when talking in small numbers. Like most fans the bravado comes out when in the crowd. But Munster will cheer on an underdog so long as they have heart and show they are putting in maximum effort. A player or team that doesn't try is what irks a munster fan.

And this is from a Leinster fan who know half the crowd around me for most matches in the RDS are only interested in the pints, overpriced nosh and tries.

by SecretFly Tue 04 Jun 2019, 6:00 pm

Brendan wrote:It's good that Munster is still seen as a good job. You wonder if people outside the league would see Munster as a Leicester once good team but a bad place for your reputation as the fans want trophies and the team aren't at that level.

Munster still had a lot of potential wrapped up in a good bit of dysfunctionality at coaching level.

To tell the truth I do think Munster got carried away on the idea that it's a family ( i.e. Promoting from inside the group to serious coaching positions). Even Rog and Paulie kinda ran away from the possibility that the same might happen to them. And by the way they've interpreted their pathways in coaching when interviewed, I think they've hinted that being past Munster players was no qualification for jumping straight into coaching at their home Province. The bond is too close.

I think it's a right choice to take in more external coaches from outside the 'family' so that new eyes and a different kind of 'authority' get an extra percentage in performance...hopefully.

by **rodders** Wed 05 Jun 2019, 10:00 am

Collapse2005 wrote:Cant say I agree really. 3rd in 6 nations, 2nd in champions cup and first in Pro 14 is never a bad year. B minus. Under 20s grand slam and they just spanked England at the under 20s RWC.

I agree it's been a much more successful year than it appears - If you consider all 4 teams in the pro14 Knock out stages and 3 in the ECC QF as well, results wise there are a lot of positives.

I think maybe a lot of the negativity stems from the drop off from last year, which was exceptional, and also the manner of the defeats of Irish teams at both club and international level has been concerning.

We've really been comprehensively beaten by rival teams, a number of times, in a way we've rarely experienced under Schmidt, so heading into the RWC there are big question marks over the players and coaches .

by Collapse2005 Wed 05 Jun 2019, 10:21 am

The Wales game was a concern for sure. I see the England game as more of a blip than anything. We had just had an incredible year and players were caught on the hop by a very good and very hungry England side. Re Wales, we nearly always lose to them when then are one game away from a slam but this was a bigger loss that we would have wanted (if we had to lose).

All teams have set backs and need to find new means to win which Schmidt and co have time and time again proved that they can come up with. The doom and gloom dates all the way back to Schmidt's first or 2nd test when we got hammered in Dublin by Australia and then almost beat NZ. He often goes from a terrible coach to our best ever depending on whether we win or lose which is quite fickle.

I mean people are still talking about SA as contenders even though they have lost half of all their games in the last two years. Ireland have played more and just lost 3. That's only 1 more than NZ and 3 more than Wales.

by **rodders** Wed 05 Jun 2019, 11:15 am

Collapse2005 wrote:
I mean people are still talking about SA as contenders even though they have lost half of all their games in the last two years. Ireland have played more and just lost 3. That's only 1 more than NZ and 3 more than Wales.

That is a good point but I suppose SA are a bit like France, you always feel with the players they have they just turn up and perform even if the form is not there.

For us, particularly in the Schmidt era its been more about being greater than the sum of the parts. Tactically and physically, our 2 strengths, we've been caught out a bit after Xmas - maybe it is the inevitable dip with being so successful with a small pool of players, it only takes a few injuries and key players to dip a bit to make a difference.

by SecretFly Wed 05 Jun 2019, 11:18 am

[quote="rodders"]

Collapse2005 wrote:

We've really been comprehensively beaten by rival teams, a number of times, in a way we've rarely experienced under Schmidt, so heading into the RWC there are big question marks over the players and coaches .

The very point and it outshoots the idea that we still did okay in the year. It's only an okay year so far if players have been holding something back. If they've been pumping as hard as they can and were as greedy as they could have been then we're in serious trouble.

I hope and think there was some containment of energy going on. Time will prove all.

by Collapse2005 Wed 05 Jun 2019, 11:20 am

Yeah there is no doubt that SA get a pass on form because of their historical form at RWCs. I think in a once off shoot out, Ireland v SA in the quarters Id still fancy our chances.

Also on form, yep we are in a lull period but I just don't see that as big a deal as most.

by Collapse2005 Thu 06 Jun 2019, 12:04 pm

I like the look of Ireland under 20s back up 10 Ben Healy. Looks like a top prospect for Munster. Very composed from the bench for Ireland's win over England. The scrum half Casey looked good too albeit did some bad stuff too.

by LeinsterFan4life Thu 06 Jun 2019, 9:04 pm

Stuart Olding was voted the ProD2 sides’ ‘Player of the Season’ by fans, after he helped them to win promotion to the Top14. Be good to see him back in Ireland at some stage, quality player.

by Collapse2005 Thu 06 Jun 2019, 9:41 pm

Good on him.

by **profitius** Fri 07 Jun 2019, 9:19 am

Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

by Collapse2005 Fri 07 Jun 2019, 9:21 am

profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

by **rodders** Fri 07 Jun 2019, 10:17 am

Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

by Brendan Fri 07 Jun 2019, 10:40 am

rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

by marty2086 Fri 07 Jun 2019, 10:46 am

Brendan wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

Is it true Flannery is leaving the game altogether?

by carpet baboon Fri 07 Jun 2019, 11:02 am

marty2086 wrote:
Brendan wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

Is it true Flannery is leaving the game altogether?

Might be be heading back to football? All the arsenal players spoke very highly of him when he was there S&C coach

by **rodders** Fri 07 Jun 2019, 11:04 am

Brendan wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

Saw it mentioned somewhere that they were offered contracts lower than they'd verbally agreed, leaving them no option but to walk away. Not sure if that is true or not....

by marty2086 Fri 07 Jun 2019, 11:10 am

carpet baboon wrote:
marty2086 wrote:
Brendan wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

Is it true Flannery is leaving the game altogether?

Might be be heading back to football? All the arsenal players spoke very highly of him when he was there S&C coach

That was under Wenger though, that's what surprised me because he did a lot of work to get there so would seem a waste

Aren't Ulster looking for a new S&C coach?

by marty2086 Fri 07 Jun 2019, 11:11 am

rodders wrote:
Brendan wrote:
rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:
profitius wrote:Larkham close to signing according to one paper. Was in Limerick yesterday.

Yeah I saw that, was kind of surprised by that.

That is big news, similar to Rowntree this seemed a quick piece of business and makes me wonder if the IRFU always planned to bring them in over Flannery and Jones.

It is beginning to look like Munster had plans in place to upgrade the coaching staff. Because Flannery and Jones are Munster men it seems they were allowed to say they were leaving for themselves to save face.

Saw it mentioned somewhere that they were offered contracts lower than they'd verbally agreed, leaving them no option but to walk away. Not sure if that is true or not....

If that's true, it's a pretty sh!tty move

by geoff999rugby Sat 08 Jun 2019, 11:01 am

Food for thought

Irish provinces NEWS and GOSSIP thread part 2 - Page 15 Irish_10

by SecretFly Sat 08 Jun 2019, 11:27 am

marty2086 wrote:

If that's true, it's a pretty sh!tty move

I'd say it's about the only way you can get rid of respected ex-players in a 'family' orientated Province that allows them to suggest they left voluntarily.

How else would you do it? Keep them on even though you believe they are holding back the full potential of the team or coldly and publically sack them? The former hurts the Province simply to pander to sentiment, and the latter hurts the Province because they would be seen by many, or certainly it would be projected as such in some elements of the media, that they were heartless and icy in their treatment of the Munster 'family' coaches.

They were identified as impediments to future Munster ambitions and they had to go. I guess 'sh!tty move' was always going to be on the cards when that determination was arrived at.

by geoff999rugby Sat 08 Jun 2019, 11:32 am

Cant agree

To agree verbally and then retract - that is a Sh!tty move
To only offer them a lower value contracts in the first place is, on the other hand, fair enough

by SecretFly Sat 08 Jun 2019, 11:52 am

geoff999rugby wrote:Cant agree

To agree verbally and then retract - that is a Sh!tty move
To only offer them a lower value contracts in the first place is, on the other hand, fair enough

Agreeing 'verbally' would be in my mind more a preliminary rough idea of what might be on the cards if and when other things are determined. For example, there was a HEAD coach who was also in renewed contract talks at the time, and his ideas on what he wanted in any future re-signing was I'm sure being heavily discussed both with him and around him. The Head coach was a more important discussion in the minds of Munster so .... verbal agreement? .... nothing is agreed until it's on paper and signatures have been signed.

People are just too smart these days. They can't be fooled by much stage managed stuff. There was never going to be an easy bye bye for these two men. Everybody with a functioning brain knows it was a sacking in all but name (because of assistant changes wanted and contracted for by the Head coach).

The sour taste extra stuff...well it's inevitable, I suppose - but inescapable. I think it was the right move. And there is no easy way to make the right move that's goin to annoy some hurt people.

by **rodders** Mon 10 Jun 2019, 10:00 am

geoff999rugby wrote:Cant agree

To agree verbally and then retract - that is a Sh!tty move
To only offer them a lower value contracts in the first place is, on the other hand, fair enough

All I heard and it may be untrue is that Munster delayed on presenting the contracts and when they did the terms were less/different to what both had been led to believe i.e. that their current roles would be extended but what they received were in fact more junior terms.

Personally I think it is a pretty ruthless move, if it is true, and can't blame them for walking away.

It looks like Nucifera's strategy (I believe he said as much recently) is to take a much more assertive role in each provinces coaching set up, which in many ways is good because the IRFU are showing they will pay to get the personnel they want in place, but not so good if you are deemed surplus like Flannery and Jones.

by SecretFly Mon 10 Jun 2019, 11:32 am

Watch out! I hear that NuicanceFella has been drafted in to take care of all future 606 mod contracts. Oh dear....., there will be blood.

by **rodders** Mon 10 Jun 2019, 11:49 am

I really don't think they could offer worse terms....

by SecretFly Mon 10 Jun 2019, 12:12 pm

Oh so he's already been in situ for some time? Oh alright. Got my dates wrong, I guess.

by marty2086 Mon 10 Jun 2019, 1:12 pm

SecretFly wrote:
marty2086 wrote:

If that's true, it's a pretty sh!tty move

I'd say it's about the only way you can get rid of respected ex-players in a 'family' orientated Province that allows them to suggest they left voluntarily.

How else would you do it? Keep them on even though you believe they are holding back the full potential of the team or coldly and publically sack them? The former hurts the Province simply to pander to sentiment, and the latter hurts the Province because they would be seen by many, or certainly it would be projected as such in some elements of the media, that they were heartless and icy in their treatment of the Munster 'family' coaches.

They were identified as impediments to future Munster ambitions and they had to go. I guess 'sh!tty move' was always going to be on the cards when that determination was arrived at.

How about don't make an offer to people if you're still looking for a better alternative, it's a sh!tty move

I wonder how many life decisions the two and their families made based on the first offer only to have the rug pulled from under them.

Being honest would be the best approach and hardly emphasises the 'family' orientated nature of the province by acting in such a way

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