Wales v England thread (6 Nations)

by mikey_dragon Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:49 pm

First topic message reminder :

Date: 23rd Feb 2019
Time: 9:45 am (Mountain Time)
Venue: MILLENIUM Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)

Teams:

Wales: Wales: Liam Williams (Saracens); George North (Ospreys), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Worcester); Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, captain), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Aled Davies (Ospreys), Dan Biggar (Northampton), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).

England: Daly; Nowell, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; Moon, George, Sinckler, Lawes, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Williams, Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford, Cokanasiga.

LondonTiger wrote:ANY personal attacks will be a ban. No warnings.

by No 7&1/2 Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:55 pm

Cokanasiga scoring another great try in the first half. Must be tempting Jones to have a punt from the bench.

by Pie Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:16 pm

I dont buy it, I think Biggar will be fine they wouldn't have risked him this weekend otherwise. Its described as a minor twisted knee so a few days rnr he should be ok

by lostinwales Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:53 pm

There is a picture of Biggar with a lot of strapping.

Anyway it must be a little concerning to be relying on a FH who can be a little flakey and who will have Curry and Lawes hunting him without the safety net of having Biggar on the bench. If Patchell does come in he won't exactly be battle hardened.

by robbo277 Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:47 pm

Pie wrote:I dont buy it, I think Biggar will be fine they wouldn't have risked him this weekend otherwise. Its described as a minor twisted knee so a few days rnr he should be ok

I don't think it was Wales decision to "risk him". Northampton would have picked him because it's not an International weekend. He may come through, but I don't think Wales would have had a say in him playing.

by Guest Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:31 pm

Patchell looked flaky tonight for the Scarlets. Some nice touches and really took the ball to the line but flung a few passes at close range and general decision making was off.

I think Biggar will be fine.

by mikey_dragon Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:15 pm

Jeez Welsh club (regional) rugby really is in crisis mode. Amateur set-ups across the board.

by **RiscaGame** Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:45 pm

Biggar will be fine seemingly. Guy recovers from knocks pretty well, to be fair to him.

by maestegmafia Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:01 pm

miaow wrote:Patchell looked flaky tonight for the Scarlets. Some nice touches and really took the ball to the line but flung a few passes at close range and general decision making was off.

I think Biggar will be fine.

He hasn’t had much game time recently I guess

by Guest Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:44 pm

Hasn't played for months, so understandable. Still Wales' most potent/taleneted 10 but don't think he'll be ready for the World Cup. Could be vital off the bench though, particularly in the later rounds when, presumably, it'll be Wales' attack that lets them down/sees them trailing in games.

Would be bad luck for him if he does play against England. Thrown in last year and didn't play too badly, but clearly rattled. Now, rusty and lacking match fitness, asked to play again. Absolutely not the way you want to manage a player, particularly one like Patchell who is talented and creative but clearly also a confidence player.

by yappysnap Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:23 am

I think the break has come at thw wrong time for England.

It gives Wales extra time to plan against our kicking game while we lose a bit of the momentum we built up.

by **Rugby Fan** Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:54 am

yappysnap wrote:I think the break has come at the wrong time for England.

It gives Wales extra time to plan against our kicking game while we lose a bit of the momentum we built up.

Hard to know, isn't it? When you rely on a very physical game, with players making record tackle counts, then an extra week to recover may not be such a bad thing in a key Six Nations match.

I'd also be a bit surprised if England planned to play the same way against Wales. The 1014 guys pointed out that Ireland and France both fielded back three combinations which were playing together for the first time in a Test, and had few caps in those particular positions. That won't be the case with Wales, and definitely won't be with opposition like NZ and Australlia.

by Guest Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:28 am

I can see England putting in more contestable kicks against Wales. Similar to last year, target the supposed weak players in the air with cross field dinks etc in the middle of the park. Then once they're tied up and if they can get quick ball, move it through the hands and/or put a long grubber in.

Also, EJ countered Ireland by effectively nullifying the key Irish strengths. Wales' strength is unoubtedly ball retention and moving the play around through relatively horizontal phases before trying to burst into life as and when the opposition tires, switches off, or makes an obvious mistake. Stop that at source and you stop Wales - so expect the set piece, in particular the lineout to be targeted heavily. Everything contested - don't let the phase play happen, force Wales to kick it back to them from slow/disrupted ball.

Also, expect them to rush the half backs. Spot blitz on Anscombe and some heavy/late clearouts throw the ruck on Tomos Williams as Keith Earls suffered. Finally, best form of defence for England will be attack. Turnover ball, running from A to B as hard and as fast as possible. As against Australia, if they get 2-3 phases going forwards they'll start running with several options in the attack, from BV to George to Slade to a winger. Each one's a viable receiver and Wales' scramble defence will have to anticipate and read those situations.

by EnglishReign Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:57 pm

yappysnap wrote:I think the break has come at thw wrong time for England.

It gives Wales extra time to plan against our kicking game while we lose a bit of the momentum we built up.

Does feel a bit like we have to start from scratch, although maybe not a bad thing as Wales will play smarter than France/Ireland, so we will need time to address that and mix up our gameplan.

by WELL-PAST-IT Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:25 pm

It looks like Bigger picked up his injury playing for Wales, last week, missed Tuesday training but trained hard on Thursday so was deemed fit to play. Suffered a bit of a recurrence so was pulled off. Boyd thinks he will be okay for Saturday.

by **LondonTiger** Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:54 pm

Ashton ruled out with a calf strain.

by **LondonTiger** Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:56 pm

Forwards
Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers)
Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter Chiefs)
Tom Curry (Sale Sharks)
Ben Earl (Saracens) *
Charlie Ewels (Bath Rugby)
Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers)
Jamie George (Saracens)
Alec Hepburn (Exeter Chiefs)
Nathan Hughes (Wasps)
George Kruis (Saracens)
Joe Launchbury (Wasps)
Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints)
Ben Moon (Exeter Chiefs)
Brad Shields (Wasps)
Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins)
Jack Singleton (Worcester Warriors) *
Billy Vunipola (Saracens)
Harry Williams (Exeter Chiefs)
Mark Wilson (Newcastle Falcons)

Backs
Mike Brown (Harlequins)
Joe Cokanasiga (Bath Rugby)
Elliot Daly (Wasps)
Ollie Devoto (Exeter Chiefs)
Owen Farrell (Saracens) captain
George Ford (Leicester Tigers)
Jonny May (Leicester Tigers)
Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs)
Dan Robson (Wasps)
Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs)
Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors)
Ollie Thorley (Gloucester Rugby) *
Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers)
Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)

by robbo277 Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:09 pm

As expected, Dylan Hartley and Maro Itoje don't make the gameweek squad having been called in to the squad on the off week, probably more for a progress check than anything else.

Hepburn, Singleton, Ewels, Earl, Thorley, Devoto, Te'o and Brown are probably training fodder, while Eddie has decisions to make over Cole or Williams and probably Shields and Hughes will be in his consideration. With Ashton out I fully expect to see Cokanasiga, but accept we could see Brown or even Te'o benched instead.

Moon and Genge to start is the big question in the absence of Mako and I guess while we have a number of excellent second rows there will always be a selection debate over which two start, although I'd expect to see Launchbury on the bench again. Everything else is pretty much set in place.

Eddie's (Robbo's) likely 23:

Moon (Genge), George, Sinckler, Lawes, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, Vunipola.
Youngs, Farrell, May, Tuilagi, Slade, Nowell, Daly.
Cowan-Dickie, Genge (Moon), Cole (Williams), Launchbury, Hughes, Robson, Ford, Cokanasiga.

by majesticimperialman Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:23 pm

Ashton being injured will give a chance for Joe Cokanasiga to come in.

Looking forward to see what he can do against Wales.

by Pie Sun Feb 17, 2019 7:27 pm

Doesnt matter who is out for England their strength in depth is ridiculous with people like Cokanasiga in the wings and Jospeh and Watson not even in the squad.....its a completely uneven playing field. Maybe thats why Ashton did his calf.

All that being said if you were going to lose talismanic figures from that side then Mako, Maro and to a lesser extent Ashton would fit that bill. Billy slipping in the shower would be too much to hope for.

Wales can do it but players like Ball, Owens, Moriarty and Tipuric, North and JD2 will have to have the game of their lives and we have to figure a way of getting our back 3 behind their line so either getting wide off 2nd phase which means loading breakdown or a kicking game that outsmarts a superb blitz defense. We have to take England physicality, wrap it up and send it back with interest.

This could be a Mitchell-Edwards head to head

by lostinwales Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:04 pm

Pie wrote:Doesnt matter who is out for England their strength in depth is ridiculous with people like Cokanasiga in the wings and Jospeh and Watson not even in the squad.....its a completely uneven playing field. Maybe thats why Ashton did his calf.

All that being said if you were going to lose talismanic figures from that side then Mako, Maro and to a lesser extent Ashton would fit that bill. Billy slipping in the shower would be too much to hope for.

Wales can do it but players like Ball, Owens, Moriarty and Tipuric, North and JD2 will have to have the game of their lives and we have to figure a way of getting our back 3 behind their line so either getting wide off 2nd phase which means loading breakdown or a kicking game that outsmarts a superb blitz defense. We have to take England physicality, wrap it up and send it back with interest.

This could be a Mitchell-Edwards head to head

Strength in depth in some positions.. Wing is fine - and there are some fine players (Roko, Solomona) who could do a job but are out of contention. Itoje is Itoje but we still have 3 absolute top level locks, and while we will lose Mako's work rate and experience, the set piece won't be any weaker regardless of which of Moon or Genge is starting, and Genge is a scary prospect in his own right.

by Pie Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:18 pm

Yes agree on Genge but like Sinckler (who has reined it in) I think he has a temperament that could be exploited, while acknowledging he is a fearsome prospect.

Apparently Ken says they are having to rein in some Welsh youngsters...

Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war!

by Guest Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:38 pm

All that discussion about combined teams on here and the BBC produces this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/47273547

Think I agree with every decision. If Itoje, Mako and Genge are out then you'd take Rob Evans over Moon, but probably the two English props before Evs at the moment. Second rows are tight but think AWJ and Lawes make a good pairing.

The only other query would be Wilson or Navidi/Moriarty at 6 but don't really feel strongly either way.

Wales v England thread (6 Nations) - Page 9 2019-016

by BigTrevsbigmac Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:30 pm

miaow wrote:All that discussion about combined teams on here and the BBC produces this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/47273547

Think I agree with every decision. If Itoje, Mako and Genge are out then you'd take Rob Evans over Moon, but probably the two English props before Evs at the moment. Second rows are tight but think AWJ and Lawes make a good pairing.

The only other query would be Wilson or Navidi/Moriarty at 6 but don't really feel strongly either way.

Peter Jackson was the only one who talked sense on scrumv.

by majesticimperialman Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:01 pm

England have put in a lot of dominant tackles in the first 2 game's.

The game against Ireland was very brutal, England stopped Ireland with the first up hard tackles. Did not allow Ireland to get their running game going, to play they way Ireland usually do play.

The thing is can England do the same against Wales? Do Wales have the players to put an end to England's game plan? Stop England with Dominant tackle's?

England have had continuity in the first 2 game's. Unlike Wales who have had 2 different teams. Will this stand Wales in good stead or will it lead too Wales's undoing?

Only time will tell i guess.

by Guest Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:06 pm

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:Peter Jackson was the only one who talked sense on scrumv.

Errrr...???

The man who, when asked what his favourite Wales v England moment is, uses a recycled (and largely fictional) anecdote from the after dinner circuit that's not even related to him?

He's a weird one. Like the geriatric relative you just have to kind of put up with. Not sure how that was 'sense' but there we go...

by maestegmafia Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:12 pm

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:
miaow wrote:All that discussion about combined teams on here and the BBC produces this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/47273547

Think I agree with every decision. If Itoje, Mako and Genge are out then you'd take Rob Evans over Moon, but probably the two English props before Evs at the moment. Second rows are tight but think AWJ and Lawes make a good pairing.

The only other query would be Wilson or Navidi/Moriarty at 6 but don't really feel strongly either way.

Peter Jackson was the only one who talked sense on scrumv.

To be fair there was a lot more sense than you give credit. Main point being that in attack England have targeted the opposition back three positioning smartly with kicks and consistently worked a blitz defence.

If the back three work well those spaces don’t exist, countering a blitz defence can be done by putting through kicks short and deep which neither France or Ireland did well.

by Guest Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:21 pm

'Dominant tackle' has definitely become a buzzword. Expect to see it as one of the rules for a drinking game come the RWC.

It's just stopping a team behind the gainline. England managed to do it repeatedly to Ireland, who are used to grinding their way forward and exploiting space when defence is unsettled, usually through box kicking. Big achievement by England but a blitz defence, with the size and strength of their players, is nothing particularly ground breaking.

The issue Wales have is whether they can jab away, perhaps taking a few 'dominant tackles' in the process, before dropping a shoulder and breaking, or finding North or Adams on a lovely inside pass through a gap. France did it a ridiculous number of times, and Ireland also made a few line breaks and England missed quite a few tackles. It's what you'd expect from such an aggressive line. It's there to be exploited - I'd expect both teams to be aware of this and working to either proift/minimise England's propensity to miss tackles and allow line breaks. I'd also expect Wales to kick from 10 a lot more than Ireland did. Both clearing long down field for territory and dinks/crossfield from first phase. Biggar loves doing the latter and is surprisingly good at it: https://youtu.be/toNSVbh1NAE?t=10

Honestly, I think this game will ultimately come down to who takes their chances. Both coaches will have prep'd their sides well. I don't think England will be as dominant as most fans are probably expecting they might. England will have the physical edge but, hopefully, Wales can force errors and turn them over. Eventhough England dominated the collisions in 2015, Wales won the game because Biggar kept Wales in it with his kicks - then the final quarter came and Wales started cutting loose, looking the better team. Different situation admittedly but Wales HAVE to stay in touch - they know they can play for 80+ minutes if necessary, they know they have the players to play it loose and score tries (Tips, North, Liam, Ansc, the 9s) but it comes down to taking chances.

Can Wales score tries when the situation present themselves? Will they actively pursue tries when there's a choice? And is their kick % good enough?

At the moment, I haven't seen enough to think they will, particularly with Anscombe and Parkes as the two frontline kickers on the field. Against Daly, Farrell and Slade, that could be a tough ask.

But 'dominant tackles' - yeah, being strong is a massive part of the game. England are very physical and they're playing to their strengths. Winning the physical battle is just about 50% of Rugby. But this tactic isn't that different to how they played in 2016 and 17. They're up hard and fast and competing - but against Ireland they didn't turn over as many rucks and were more ruthless with ball in hand. Wales have a more passive, but less confrontational defence, and I think that will need to change to face England - something like 2017 (until Moriarty went off) will be required. Big hits to stop momentum.

by Scottrf Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:31 pm

France made a ridiculous number of clean breaks against England but scored 3 times as many tries against Wales. Go figure.

by maestegmafia Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:34 pm

This thread has been going really well over the last week. Let’s keep it that way. As LT wrote above the mods have agreed to zero tolerance to people trying to derail.

by maestegmafia Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:36 pm

Scottrf wrote:France made a ridiculous number of clean breaks against England but scored 3 times as many tries against Wales. Go figure.

Stats, you gotta love them. Must be a nightmare analysing the numbers.

by Cyril Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:53 pm

I think Wales will probably be able to keep the score down. However, as an England fan, I would be disappointed not to win by 10+.

Hope it’s a good game too

by **Rugby Fan** Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:52 am

1014 team noted that England have so far made the lowest number of metres with ball in hand, while conceding the most.

The kicking game explains the first. May has scored all his tries while making only half the metres that Ioane makes on average over 2 games. As for conceding, kicking will be part of the story, since opposition players can get a run-up but missed tackles might also be a contributor.

Whether that's a weakness, or just the way England choose to defend (steering attackers in certain directions if they do beat the tackler) will be clearer in the Wales match. France lead all the teams in metres made, and yet have lost both matches, so the numbers alone don't reveal much divorced from context.

by lostinwales Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:58 am

Rugby Fan wrote:1014 team noted that England have so far made the lowest number of metres with ball in hand, while conceding the most.

The kicking game explains the first. May has scored all his tries while making only half the metres that Ioane makes on average over 2 games. As for conceding, kicking will be part of the story, since opposition players can get a run-up but missed tackles might also be a contributor.

Whether that's a weakness, or just the way England choose to defend (steering attackers in certain directions if they do beat the tackler) will be clearer in the Wales match. France lead all the teams in metres made, and yet have lost both matches, so the numbers alone don't reveal much divorced from context.

It is only a weakness if we start losing games. The only stats that really matter are on the scoreboard. Said this before but the other stats can be used to explain what happens, but you can't determine what should happen from the same numbers.

by BigTrevsbigmac Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:18 am

maestegmafia wrote:
BigTrevsbigmac wrote:
miaow wrote:All that discussion about combined teams on here and the BBC produces this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/47273547

Think I agree with every decision. If Itoje, Mako and Genge are out then you'd take Rob Evans over Moon, but probably the two English props before Evs at the moment. Second rows are tight but think AWJ and Lawes make a good pairing.

The only other query would be Wilson or Navidi/Moriarty at 6 but don't really feel strongly either way.

Peter Jackson was the only one who talked sense on scrumv.

To be fair there was a lot more sense than you give credit. Main point being that in attack England have targeted the opposition back three positioning smartly with kicks and consistently worked a blitz defence.

If the back three work well those spaces don’t exist, countering a blitz defence can be done by putting through kicks short and deep which neither France or Ireland did well.

I was specifically talking about combined team selection. On form only Tipuric & Williams come close to displacing their opposite numbers but then you would be displacing Daly & Curry and to be frank even those cases could be made for English players.
Some of the Welsh players chosen in the combined team is certainly not based on form & that was my point.

I get the analysis & agree with that.

by yappysnap Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:33 am

lostinwales wrote:
Rugby Fan wrote:1014 team noted that England have so far made the lowest number of metres with ball in hand, while conceding the most.

The kicking game explains the first. May has scored all his tries while making only half the metres that Ioane makes on average over 2 games. As for conceding, kicking will be part of the story, since opposition players can get a run-up but missed tackles might also be a contributor.

Whether that's a weakness, or just the way England choose to defend (steering attackers in certain directions if they do beat the tackler) will be clearer in the Wales match. France lead all the teams in metres made, and yet have lost both matches, so the numbers alone don't reveal much divorced from context.

It is only a weakness if we start losing games. The only stats that really matter are on the scoreboard. Said this before but the other stats can be used to explain what happens, but you can't determine what should happen from the same numbers.

2 games don't give enough data either.

All we need is Daly to run a few balls back from deep and it'll massively change the metres made stat, likewise if the forwards start popping the ball to each other it could come to nothing but our offloads will look sweet.

by yappysnap Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:35 am

I believe after the Ireland game there was a stat saying that England won most of their collisions. That is far more useful.

Likewise the fact that two games running now Farrell has had the vision and skill to throw a wide on-target pass to his wings to score is a more pertinent stat.

by maestegmafia Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:58 am

yappysnap wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Rugby Fan wrote:1014 team noted that England have so far made the lowest number of metres with ball in hand, while conceding the most.

The kicking game explains the first. May has scored all his tries while making only half the metres that Ioane makes on average over 2 games. As for conceding, kicking will be part of the story, since opposition players can get a run-up but missed tackles might also be a contributor.

Whether that's a weakness, or just the way England choose to defend (steering attackers in certain directions if they do beat the tackler) will be clearer in the Wales match. France lead all the teams in metres made, and yet have lost both matches, so the numbers alone don't reveal much divorced from context.

It is only a weakness if we start losing games. The only stats that really matter are on the scoreboard. Said this before but the other stats can be used to explain what happens, but you can't determine what should happen from the same numbers.

2 games don't give enough data either.

All we need is Daly to run a few balls back from deep and it'll massively change the metres made stat, likewise if the forwards start popping the ball to each other it could come to nothing but our offloads will look sweet.

Stats and forum posters analysis of them often fails to differentiate Meters made cross the gain line is far more important than meters made with ball in hand.

How many meters mentioned were a fullback running from deep into a solid defence, getting turned over and the opposition running in a try from a kick through...!!

by No 7&1/2 Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:07 am

Stats are almost impossible to use and discern anything unless you've watched the games. Even then we generally only get the limited 4 or 5 lines. Itv produced a new dominant tackles one and now it's everywhere. From metres made to limepits won etc.
Ironically the best one for England so far isn't used. First to the ruck. No turnovers conceded from rucks vs Ireland. 2 vs france. That'll be a key area vs Wales. Look after the ball to the same extent vs Wales and England will win.

by BamBam Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:45 am

Takes a lot to make Joe Marler look like an insightful, observant and knowledgeable pundit, but Adam Jones manages it

Analysis like "Oh he's in, he's in" is definitely worthy of being lauded

by Ricardo74 Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:13 am

yappysnap wrote:I believe after the Ireland game there was a stat saying that England won most of their collisions. That is far more useful.

Likewise the fact that two games running now Farrell has had the vision and skill to throw a wide on-target pass to his wings to score is a more pertinent stat.

Absolutely this. It's a case of picking the stats to support your case, whatever case you are trying to put. What's the quote? "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"....

As a side note, anyone noticed the increasing use of "offload" instead of the more simple "pass"? For me, it's an "offload" if it's out of contact, especially via a slipped out hand, or out the back of the hand; not a pop pass prior to contact. Pet peeve.

by robbo277 Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:31 am

maestegmafia wrote:
BigTrevsbigmac wrote:
miaow wrote:All that discussion about combined teams on here and the BBC produces this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/47273547

Think I agree with every decision. If Itoje, Mako and Genge are out then you'd take Rob Evans over Moon, but probably the two English props before Evs at the moment. Second rows are tight but think AWJ and Lawes make a good pairing.

The only other query would be Wilson or Navidi/Moriarty at 6 but don't really feel strongly either way.

Peter Jackson was the only one who talked sense on scrumv.

To be fair there was a lot more sense than you give credit. Main point being that in attack England have targeted the opposition back three positioning smartly with kicks and consistently worked a blitz defence.

If the back three work well those spaces don’t exist, countering a blitz defence can be done by putting through kicks short and deep which neither France or Ireland did well.

The issue is though a lot of teams when defending in their own half are pushing their wingers up into front line defence which isolates the full back. For the back three to work well, one of these has to drop as well so you can have two men in the backfield and then operate a pendulum. But the whole point of pushing those men up in the first place was to stock your front line defence, so if you revert to a pendulum system then England could keep ball in hand more and work the numbers.

Another key strength has been when we've kicked from our 22 our chasers have probably caught a decent percentage of kicks. May has been getting up and being a nuisance, even if the defenders start back.

For what it's worth, I think Wales will start with 14 men up and see if Williams can do a better job of dealing with it than Henshaw and Huget, but they'll be ready to adapt to a pendulum system if they're struggling.

by robbo277 Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:38 am

lostinwales wrote:
Rugby Fan wrote:1014 team noted that England have so far made the lowest number of metres with ball in hand, while conceding the most.

The kicking game explains the first. May has scored all his tries while making only half the metres that Ioane makes on average over 2 games. As for conceding, kicking will be part of the story, since opposition players can get a run-up but missed tackles might also be a contributor.

Whether that's a weakness, or just the way England choose to defend (steering attackers in certain directions if they do beat the tackler) will be clearer in the Wales match. France lead all the teams in metres made, and yet have lost both matches, so the numbers alone don't reveal much divorced from context.

It is only a weakness if we start losing games. The only stats that really matter are on the scoreboard. Said this before but the other stats can be used to explain what happens, but you can't determine what should happen from the same numbers.

I think I put it on another post, or possibly this one, but against France we kicked about 40m every try. That's metres made by kicking and regathering. There's no stat for it, but just in those 6 plays we got upwards of 200m. That doesn't include e.g. 30m made by kicking from halfway to the opposition 5m line and the opposition shanking a clearance out on the 22, which also happened a couple of times from memory.

That England have such "poor" stats is a failure of the stats and/or their analysis, rather than England. If this tactic continues and catches on more widely, then statistical measures will catch up. You'll probably see some kind of "metres made from regathered kicks" or something.

by Scottrf Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:09 am

Ricardo74 wrote:As a side note, anyone noticed the increasing use of "offload" instead of the more simple "pass"? For me, it's an "offload" if it's out of contact, especially via a slipped out hand, or out the back of the hand; not a pop pass prior to contact. Pet peeve.

It's never used to mean pass in stats.

by Poorfour Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:12 am

England are playing a game that current stats don't measure well. So many games are won by dominating territory and possession that the things we measure emphasise those and don't have good metrics for measuring a team that's comfortable without the ball.

England's stats are not dissimilar to those in some All Black games (though the dominant tackle count is, for the time being, very much their own thing) - happy to not to have possession, stifling the opposition's attack and waiting for the chance to pounce. It works if you can force errors, limit the penalty count and be clinical; so far England have done that. Even against Ireland, their penalty count was pretty good by international standards (Ireland's was incredible, in the literal sense of the word) and mostly concentrated in the period around the Irish try. They left some scores on the field against France, but only after the game was comfortably won.

The big difference between the upcoming game and the previous two are that Wales will not have players out of position in their back three. They also have decent tactical kicking options and a good kick chase (but so did Ireland) and the bench and fitness to change up the game in the last quarter (but so do England).

England won't find it so easy to create space behind the lines, so I suspect they will have to do more to interest the defence and create holes elsewhere, and make more use of wide runners if the big carriers can draw in more defenders.

The threat for Wales is that Farrell, Slade and Daly all offer kicking, passing and running threats, which means that the point of attack can come from all points on the field, whereas you know what Manu and Billy will do but it's much harder to stop them. Add in Sinckler, who has been used as much to distribute as to carry in the first two games, and potentially Genge and it will take a particularly well organised and committed defence to maintain its shape over multiple phases.

The threat from Wales depends a bit on the personnel available to them, but it probably hinges on getting the ball to JD2 or North (if he has space for a run-up), on creating broken field play for Williams, and on putting Daly under pressure with the high ball, which neither Ireland nor France managed to do.

by Ricardo74 Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:12 am

Scottrf wrote:
Ricardo74 wrote:As a side note, anyone noticed the increasing use of "offload" instead of the more simple "pass"? For me, it's an "offload" if it's out of contact, especially via a slipped out hand, or out the back of the hand; not a pop pass prior to contact. Pet peeve.
It's never used to mean pass in stats.

I meant more in commentary and the in-game punditry. You are, of course, right about the official stats.

by Scottrf Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:21 am

I think people are getting a bit hung up on how the first two games have gone personally. Kicking into space isn't England's tactic. It's one tactic England have based on the circumstances. Wales defending these kicks well isn't going to mean England have no threat.

There are strong carrying options all over the park, and players which attract multiple defenders. The combination of this and the kick threat will create overlaps, the same type Farrell spotted and exploited for the first try against Ireland.

by LordDowlais Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:33 am

Well, this is it now, were into 6N's week again. The break is over, and it's time to start getting excited again. Yahoo

dewch ymlaen Cymru Wales

by **LondonTiger** Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:43 am

Poorfour wrote:England are playing a game that current stats don't measure well. So many games are won by dominating territory and possession that the things we measure emphasise those and don't have good metrics for measuring a team that's comfortable without the ball.

During their current winning run, Wales have had, on average, 45% possession (taken from an article in the Times last week). Exclude Tonga and Italy and that number drops. NZ tend to win with less than 50% possession too.

by No 7&1/2 Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:47 am

And Ireland have been brilliant while dominating possession. Rugby is such a varied game it's really not 1 size fits all.

by maestegmafia Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:08 am

Scottrf wrote:I think people are getting a bit hung up on how the first two games have gone personally. Kicking into space isn't England's tactic. It's one tactic England have based on the circumstances. Wales defending these kicks well isn't going to mean England have no threat.

There are strong carrying options all over the park, and players which attract multiple defenders. The combination of this and the kick threat will create overlaps, the same type Farrell spotted and exploited for the first try against Ireland.

I agree

England have made some superb passes, particularly for their first try of the championship. They know how to break down defences and their entire team are excellent at capitalising on them. In contrast so far wales have crossed the opposition try line or broken the gain line and capitalised with anywhere near that level of efficiency.

England’s set piece has been near faultless and wales line out has been a weakness. It sure could be a tough afternoon for wale if they don’t tidy up their game before Saturday.

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