Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Soft thread split, hard thread split, no-deal thread split. Who gives a sh!t as long as we get a thread split by the 15:35 deadline.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:The point was made again this morning that even if we leave without a deal on 31st October, we'll still want to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU - most of our trade is with the EU, simple geography dictates that it always will be, and this can't be replaced or offset by trade elsewhere.  And what will reappear when we come to negotiate a free trade agreement? The issue of Irish border. So leaving on Hallowe'en really won't bring an end to things in any meaningful way - we'll just knowingly damage the economy, and then re-enter negotiations.

Only this time in a still weaker position.

I have seen talk suggesting that calling a GE might be an easy way of having parliament out of the way when Halloween comes around. Parliament can't stop no deal if it has been dissolved.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:The point was made again this morning that even if we leave without a deal on 31st October, we'll still want to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU - most of our trade is with the EU, simple geography dictates that it always will be, and this can't be replaced or offset by trade elsewhere.  And what will reappear when we come to negotiate a free trade agreement? The issue of Irish border. So leaving on Hallowe'en really won't bring an end to things in any meaningful way - we'll just knowingly damage the economy, and then re-enter negotiations.

You are exactly right, Luckless.  Even a No Deal exit will need a deal after exit...or deals.  The EU and the UK won't suddenly stop talking to each other for 50 years.  Even if thin skinned bureaucrats wanted to stop all communication, pragmatism wouldn't allow it to last long.
So yes, the UK leaves without a Deal.  Pretty soon two political entities (UK and EU) would be heavily into public or private chats about improving any No Deal terms in the interests of both entities.  

So a few things.
1. If such an inescapable truth exists, then why the panic about a No Deal exit?  DEALS will come, one way or another.  Fact.  The EU need UK trade as much as the UK needs the Nations of the EU.
2. No, the UKs position in negotiating a Deal is not stronger or easier from within the EU (pre-leaving) than it would be as a clear and defined Independent Nation negotiating with another political entity.  The same conditions apply always.  The UK wants access to EU markets.  The EU in turn wants access to the UKs high spending 60 million population (and growing) right on its doorstep.
3.  The UK fully outside the EU would be able to exert more diplomatic pressure on the individual Nation States in one on one chats.  At present the EU is warning off members from engaging with the UK in one on one chats but with a UK fully outside and wanting good International relationships with individual EU states, they could make any controlling hand by the EU look very bad in Public relations terms and stir bad feeling in EU Nations that might start to scent too much EU influence over one on one International relationships.

On your first point, Fly, I've said before that the government has a duty to everyone in the UK, regardless of how they voted in 2016, to make leaving the EU is as smooth and pain-free as possible. Remember, it was only a narrow majority that voted to leave. Leaving with no deal will cause major and unnecessary damage to the economy, even if that jolt is temporary - many small businesses won't be able to ride it out while negotiations continue. And as I've also said before, it's possible to want the UK to leave the EU and to be appalled at the prospect of leaving without a deal. That's not the Brexit the country was promised.

Keep an eye / ear out for government ministers talking about the 'undemocratic backstop' over the next few weeks and months - Raab said it twice in a BBC interview this morning, plus someone's quoted saying on the front of the Telegraph. It was jarring, because it was new. Quite what makes the backstop undemocratic is beyond me, but that'll be the phrase now, along with 'turbo-charging' preparations for no deal. They're laying groundwork here, and it's not subtle.

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Keep an eye / ear out for government ministers talking about the 'undemocratic backstop' over the next few weeks and months - Raab said it twice in a BBC interview this morning, plus someone's quoted saying on the front of the Telegraph. It was jarring, because it was new. Quite what makes the backstop undemocratic is beyond me, but that'll be the phrase now, along with 'turbo-charging' preparations for no deal. They're laying groundwork here, and it's not subtle.

it's pathetic isn't it? But some people will fall for it.

.... all that 'undemocratic', 'populist', 'people's vote v Referendum vote' stuff is Way beyond my Purview!!!!!!!


Finally got a chance to misuse my favourite new word!!!!  I'll be happy for a full week on the buzz of that

Extraordinary that Boris has gone from the chance of no deal being "a million to one against" to the Government now working on the assumption that we'll exit with no deal, all within about a week.

Again demonstrating just how much his word is worth.

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand. Nothing to worry about then, is there?
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

No, they won't. That's the point he's making. Another bizarre post.

When we leave the EU, we'll have to negotiate deals with countries that have agreements with the EU which we'll no longer benefit from once we leave. This'll be easier to do if we guarantee them the same terms and standards as they agreed with the EU, but then where does that leave the panacean trade agreement with the US, which has (according to the President) been impeded thus far by those same EU standards?

Pr4wn wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

No, they won't. That's the point he's making. Another bizarre post.

No, bizarre is underground eating establishments on playboy islands.

But back to Boris.  So Boris has no leverage because the EU will simply say "Leave with your No Deal"?  
So they have no leverage with him either?

We're back to my point.  The EU truly believes Boris is more serious about just leaving without a Deal than they ever believed May was. And despite what Navy thinks, that is a different dynamic.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:When we leave the EU, we'll have to negotiate deals with countries that have agreements with the EU which we'll no longer benefit from once we leave. This'll be easier to do if we guarantee them the same terms and standards as they agreed with the EU, but then where does that leave the panacean trade agreement with the US, which has (according to the President) been impeded thus far by those same EU standards?

I think deregulation of over-bearing standards would increase willingness of countries to engage with a less standard obsessed UK than standard-mad EU?  Don't you think? No.  Plus, if these same Nations see UK/US trade take off, they'd likely begin to question even more the 'standards' demanded in the closed off enclave called the EU.
The problem with being trapped in a block like the EU is that you have to accept all standards or you don't trade - either inside or outside the EU.  You have to accept everything before you get to the bit that might specifically make you some money for you in your 'small business'.  That constraining on business not a liberator of business.  Trading within the EU block is shackles not 'market forces at play'.

The public will always demand standards, especially if they have a Real free press to highlight concerns that might be hidden from them by industry.... but obsessively overcooked standards are not inviting for industry, on the contrary, they inhibit growth, increase costs both for producer and purchaser. Does the UK really have to rise up to EU level standards or is the pressure then on the EU to relax those standards?

Why would there be pressure on the EU to relax its standards? It already has agreements with these countries. We'll be the ones starting afresh.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Why would there be pressure on the EU to relax its standards? It already has agreements with these countries. We'll be the ones starting afresh.

The EU for the time being is still a collection of Nations.  If they see UK and US trade explode on less dogmatic 'standards' required, then perhaps pressure comes from inside the EU itself to roll back on standards required to compete.

I do wish you would all stop assuming that this EU is something monolithic in mind and purpose and that it's an never-moving straight line to the future with one common attitude leading it.  This IS the propaganda that is produced and they are certainly using this One Voice feint for all they can in the Brexit negotiations.

But if you notice how often they feel compelled to declare that the EU has an unbreakable resolve to approach Brexit and all issues with one united voice then you know that the truth is different, and the EU Elections prove it.  The EU is not united.  They all have Eurosceptics breathing down their necks.  They have their own big problems.  I repeat, UK prospering outside the EU is Not the image they need right now.  War on two fronts.  Their 'internal' battles are bigger even than the UKs.

You've jumped ahead a few steps there, Fly. Before any US deal, we'll need to secure deals with countries that already have deals with the EU, and the quickest way to get those sewn up is to commit to keeping the same standards as we have now. But the US doesn't want us to have the same standards as we have now.

Additionally, seeing as we're talking about a US-UK trade deal, Nancy Pelosi has said several times what shouldn't need saying: no trade deal if the Good Friday agreement isn't respected. You'll know how powerful the Irish-American lobby is. Trump declaring readiness to do business doesn't make that go away.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You've jumped ahead a few steps there, Fly. Before any US deal, we'll need to secure deals with countries that already have deals with the EU, and the quickest way to get those sewn up is to commit to keeping the same standards as we have now. But the US doesn't want us to have the same standards as we have now.

Additionally, seeing as we're talking about a US-UK trade deal, Nancy Pelosi has said several times what shouldn't need saying: no trade deal if the Good Friday agreement isn't respected. You'll know how powerful the Irish-American lobby is. Trump declaring readiness to do business doesn't make that go away.

If Trump says the UK are getting a good deal it must be true..

After all he told the UK to detain an Iranian Oil tanker and when the drama escalated told the UK to P-OFF you are on your own...

what is not to believe ????..

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You've jumped ahead a few steps there, Fly. Before any US deal, we'll need to secure deals with countries that already have deals with the EU, and the quickest way to get those sewn up is to commit to keeping the same standards as we have now. But the US doesn't want us to have the same standards as we have now.

Additionally, seeing as we're talking about a US-UK trade deal, Nancy Pelosi has said several times what shouldn't need saying: no trade deal if the Good Friday agreement isn't respected. You'll know how powerful the Irish-American lobby is. Trump declaring readiness to do business doesn't make that go away.

That's 's your view of how it should pan out, informed b your specific politics and beliefs.  It doesn't have to work that way though.

On Pelosi.  Is she President?  She gives her opinion, based on the present and on her Party policies.  She doesn't control the future or even the present.  She can make life difficult for her political enemies, including Trump.  But so can he make life difficult.  Plus there is an election around the corner and legal events that might fixate Pelosi's mind more than UK and Irish events and troubles.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You've jumped ahead a few steps there, Fly. Before any US deal, we'll need to secure deals with countries that already have deals with the EU, and the quickest way to get those sewn up is to commit to keeping the same standards as we have now. But the US doesn't want us to have the same standards as we have now.

Additionally, seeing as we're talking about a US-UK trade deal, Nancy Pelosi has said several times what shouldn't need saying: no trade deal if the Good Friday agreement isn't respected. You'll know how powerful the Irish-American lobby is. Trump declaring readiness to do business doesn't make that go away.

If Trump says the UK are getting a good deal it must be true..

After all he told the UK to detain an Iranian Oil tanker and when the drama escalated told the UK to P-OFF you are on your own...

what is not to believe ????..

What drama?

Oh the stage managed event to yet again try to drag Trump into a war with Iran?   Yeah, a bit like the time when he said he was angry enough to air strike Iran, invited Nancy and Chuck in to see his plans and then called a halt to any air strike as soon as they left the building to tell their media pals about classified operations.

The 'war monger' doesn't want needless war, has stated so many times and has to date kept that promise too to his supporters - and yet still gets called a dangerous war monger.  Back to his core supporters, they are having a ball with the desperate acts by Trump enemies to drag him into a war - Any war! - Korea, Russia, Iran, it doesn't matter - and Trump just yawns as he observes the stunts from the Oval Office - knowing all the intel that tells him 'scam'.

SecretFly wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You've jumped ahead a few steps there, Fly. Before any US deal, we'll need to secure deals with countries that already have deals with the EU, and the quickest way to get those sewn up is to commit to keeping the same standards as we have now. But the US doesn't want us to have the same standards as we have now.

Additionally, seeing as we're talking about a US-UK trade deal, Nancy Pelosi has said several times what shouldn't need saying: no trade deal if the Good Friday agreement isn't respected. You'll know how powerful the Irish-American lobby is. Trump declaring readiness to do business doesn't make that go away.

That's 's your view of how it should pan out, informed b your specific politics and beliefs.  It doesn't have to work that way though.

On Pelosi.  Is she President?  She gives her opinion, based on the present and on her Party policies.  She doesn't control the future or even the present.  She can make life difficult for her political enemies, including Trump.  But so can he make life difficult.  Plus there is an election around the corner and legal events that might fixate Pelosi's mind more than UK and Irish events and troubles.

No, Pelosi isn't president. But she doesn't need to be president. Trump knows the power she holds as speaker.

But let's imagine Trump has the power of a king: how quickly do you think a free trade agreement could be agreed?

Life on WTO terms won't be peachy. We'll need to get a wriggle on.

Just a mark of Johnson's incompetence shone through in the live debate. Rory Stewart asked him what his plans were for the border issue in Ireland. BJ said the UK would use a trade act (can't remember the name for it) and Rory Stewart had to point out to him that trade deal would only be usable in the case of a deal being struck. Boy oh boy an underling telling the PM what's what.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
But let's imagine Trump has the power of a king: how quickly do you think a free trade agreement could be agreed?

Life on WTO terms won't be peachy. We'll need to get a wriggle on.

Well, if Trump had the power of a king (not a real one like the Queen but a fantasy one like the Queen of Hearts from Alice in Wonderland) then an agreement might take weeks.  The word 'agreement' has no natural timeframe and we know Trump gets bored with long drawn out things.

But of course if the UK are involved, and there are Parliamentarians who want to slow and stall the process, then yes, it could take years.  They are politicians, he is a business man.  They are two different things.  They feel no urgency because their careers are all about talking and discussing.  I'm sure Trump would want things done quicker but then he isn't a king....... yet!  . Oh he'll kill me for letting out that plan too early.

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

That's the point. They have no real incentive to do that.

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

That's the point. They have no real incentive to do that.

Em, I was being facetious.  I know the EU haven't the UK's best interests at heart.  The either want to just keep you for their best interests or they want to ruin you on the Leaving.  It's nothing personal just biz.

But for the third time, the dynamic Has changed.  They believe Boris more than they ever believed May.  It's true.  They'll attempt to call his bluff of course.  It'll go right to the edge again.  And as I admitted before, Boris could indeed fold.  But for now, the EU is still hoping they can grind the UK down so that staying becomes the option.  So they too are talking big about just Leave but it'll be late nights indeed as they fear No Deal exit approaching.  They never feared that with May.  Never.

Maybe someone can correct me if I have the following wrong.

1) It has been said by some that David Cameron put the EU Referendum on his 2015 General Election manifesto to appease the "eurosceptics" (ERG?) in the Conservative Party. I don't know how the "eurosceptics" forced Cameron to do this, and what the eurosceptics would have done if Cameron had refused.

2) It has been said that the "eurosceptics / Brexiters" in the Conservative party such as Boris Johnson were surprised and didn't expect the Yes vote.

3) There has been some suggestion that Boris Johnson was not a eurosceptic but allied himself to the eurosceptics as he thought it would be political advantageous for him to do so.

I can't reference any of this - it is just some of the articles - comments I have heard - read here and there.

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

That's the point. They have no real incentive to do that.

Em, I was being facetious.  I know the EU haven't the UK's best interests at heart.  The either want to just keep you for their best interests or they want to ruin you on the Leaving.  It's nothing personal just biz.

But for the third time, the dynamic Has changed.  They believe Boris more than they ever believed May.  It's true.  They'll attempt to call his bluff of course.  It'll go right to the edge again.  And as I admitted before, Boris could indeed fold.  But for now, the EU is still hoping they can grind the UK down so that staying becomes the option.  So they too are talking big about just Leave but it'll be late nights indeed as they fear No Deal exit approaching.  They never feared that with May.  Never.

And why would they fear Johnson? The UK is still the same UK as the one that May negotiated on behalf of. Still the same size economy, still nowhere near as relevant as Johnson thinks it is.

The problem Johnson has is that the EU, unlike him, has principles. Some items for them - the Irish border being one - are not up for negotiation.

And, to remind you yet again, if the UK exits the EU without a deal, the impact felt by the EU will be nowhere near as severe as that felt by the UK. The EU are well-aware of this and, thus, they have far more leverage than Johnson does. How is that difficult to understand?

Pr4wn wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Going even by posts here, it's clear that already many if not most observers both in the UK and in Europe believe Boris Johnson is much more serious about the prospect of a No Deal than was ever believed by 'Peace in our Time' repeat offender Theresa May.
So already a different dynamic scented in the air.... the arrogant certainty drains from the EU politburo.  They know the bully tactics won't work this time.  
Hmmmmm..... they might even have to consider actually Negotiating in the next round of Negotiations.   The shock of it all!  Those ungrateful Brits no longer want to obey the rule of no new negotiations in any new negotiations!!!  Drat!  If it wasn't for those pesky kids!

Don't be daft. Boris has no leverage with the E27. Different dynamic? Only in Boris's head.

Grand.  Nothing to worry about then, is there?  
The Great EU will come to your rescue and save you from Boris's delusions of grandeur - they know a thing or two about such delusions.

That's the point. They have no real incentive to do that.

Em, I was being facetious.  I know the EU haven't the UK's best interests at heart.  The either want to just keep you for their best interests or they want to ruin you on the Leaving.  It's nothing personal just biz.

But for the third time, the dynamic Has changed.  They believe Boris more than they ever believed May.  It's true.  They'll attempt to call his bluff of course.  It'll go right to the edge again.  And as I admitted before, Boris could indeed fold.  But for now, the EU is still hoping they can grind the UK down so that staying becomes the option.  So they too are talking big about just Leave but it'll be late nights indeed as they fear No Deal exit approaching.  They never feared that with May.  Never.

And why would they fear Johnson? The UK is still the same UK as the one that May negotiated on behalf of. Still the same size economy, still nowhere near as relevant as Johnson thinks it is.

The problem Johnson has is that the EU, unlike him, has principles. Some items for them - the Irish border being one - are not up for negotiation.

And, to remind you yet again, if the UK exits the EU without a deal, the impact felt by the EU will be nowhere near as severe as that felt by the UK. The EU are well-aware of this and, thus, they have far more leverage than Johnson does. How is that difficult to understand?

It's difficult to understand if you spend your time on opinion-based sites (and conspiracy sites) that match your own views, which you then use to legitimise yourself and fool yourself into thinking you are an independent thinking free spirit working on a higher intellectual plane to others.

No name Bertie wrote:Maybe someone can correct me if I have the following wrong.

1) It has been said by some that David Cameron put the EU Referendum on his 2015 General Election manifesto to appease the "eurosceptics" (ERG?) in the Conservative Party.  I don't know how the "eurosceptics" forced Cameron to do this, and what the eurosceptics would have done if Cameron had refused.

2) It has been said that the "eurosceptics / Brexiters" in the Conservative party such as Boris Johnson were surprised and didn't expect the Yes vote.

3) There has been some suggestion that Boris Johnson was not a eurosceptic but allied himself to the eurosceptics as he thought it would be political advantageous for him to do so.  

I can't reference any of this - it is just some of the articles - comments I have heard - read here and there.

That is pretty much my understanding. Boris wanted to position himself for a leadership challenge post referendum. It is on record that at a certain point he wrote 2 alternative columns for the Times (I think it was the Times) one pro Brexit, the other anti. He went with the pro Brexit one.

Bloody EU insisting on standards like proper hygiene in the preparation of chicken for human consumption.  The vicious b@stards!

superflyweight wrote:Bloody EU insisting on standards like proper hygiene in the preparation of chicken for human consumption.  The vicious b@stards!

I know I want chicken washed in chlorine. I want veggies covered in insecticide and genetically-modified plus lest we forget the beef pumped with steroids.

No name Bertie wrote:Maybe someone can correct me if I have the following wrong.

1) It has been said by some that David Cameron put the EU Referendum on his 2015 General Election manifesto to appease the "eurosceptics" (ERG?) in the Conservative Party.  I don't know how the "eurosceptics" forced Cameron to do this, and what the eurosceptics would have done if Cameron had refused.

Cameron feared that UKIP would split the right wing vote, meaning Labour win the 2015 GE. 2 Tory MPs defected to UKIP before 2015, and this number would have been greater had the Tories not offered the referendum. Furthermore offering the ref did succeed in stopping UKIP splitting the Tory vote, and was crucial to them winning a majority.

2) It has been said that the "eurosceptics / Brexiters" in the Conservative party such as Boris Johnson were surprised and didn't expect the Yes vote.

3) There has been some suggestion that Boris Johnson was not a eurosceptic but allied himself to the eurosceptics as he thought it would be political advantageous for him to do so.  

I can't reference any of this - it is just some of the articles - comments I have heard - read here and there.

Boris was Eurosceptic when he was a journalist in the early 2000s, but in the years before 2016 was pro-EUish (spoke in speeches about the importance of the single market). Supporting Brexit was certainly a tactical ploy by Boris, making him popular with the grassroots, and he probably would have been PM whichever way the referendum went. I guess he probably would have preferred to have lost the ref by a close margin, instead he's in a pickle trying to match his promises with reality.

SecretFly, you talk about No Deal as if it's leverage in the UK's favour. Do you understand how negotiations work? No Deal hurts the UK more than the EU, as the proportion of trade the UK does with the EU is multitudes higher than the other way round.

My guess is that even if you're proved wrong, you will make up some bizarre conspiracies to cover up your bad analysis. If Boris, who has every political incentive to make his promises come true, has to admit to himself WTO Brexit would be a disaster for the UK, he'd call for an extension or change his mind on the backstop before Oct 31st. If that happens you'll blame Boris' lack of resolve for the failure rather than the realities of No Deal.
If No Deal Brexit happens and it does cause significant economic damage to the UK, you'll probably blame civil servants for not doing a good enough job for not protecting businesses.

Make some predictions, or do analysis, that is actually verifiable. Don't include cop-out get out of jail free clauses.

It's sh!t for Johnson to claim that it's up to the EU whether or not we leave without a deal. This whole thing was our idea, not the EU's, they've accepted our decision to leave, and they're under no obligation to give us everything we ask for just because we've decided to leave.

As well as being sh!t, it's embarrassing, and given that we'll need a deal with the EU whatever happens, it's quite possibly self-defeating. And other countries / blocs we'll want / need to make deals with - how do Brexiters think they view us as trading partners, especially the threat to withhold money owed?

Fly is an Irish (Republic) citizen as far as I'm aware, its an interesting Eurosceptic viewpoint that I'm not aware of many Irish people sharing openly, but I disagree with him massively all the same

No deal is the worst possible scenario for us. The Brexit headbangers still proposing it are either a) waiting to make a massive packet on the markets and currency decline, b) want to be out before the EU's new anti tax directive rules come in or c) have been brainwashed by the media funded by a combination of those in a) and b)

Its insane that so many are now crowing that they wanted no deal all along when it was never even mentioned as a possibility during the referendum campaigning. The "We Won So Get Over It" crowd are treating it as a football match, because they lack the intelligence to spot they were duped, and even if they do spot that, lack the emotional intelligence to admit it and hold up their hands

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Keep an eye / ear out for government ministers talking about the 'undemocratic backstop' over the next few weeks and months - Raab said it twice in a BBC interview this morning, plus someone's quoted saying on the front of the Telegraph. It was jarring, because it was new. Quite what makes the backstop undemocratic is beyond me, but that'll be the phrase now, along with 'turbo-charging' preparations for no deal. They're laying groundwork here, and it's not subtle.

it's pathetic isn't it? But some people will fall for it.

Raab repeating it again today, and Javid going with 'anti-democratic backstop'. I hope a journalist asks them what makes it undemocratic next time they say it.

Lib Dems win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. Not only has Johnson set a record for the quickest time as PM to lose a seat, but he now only has a working majority of one.

He’s going to need allies and need them quick.

It is really funny listening to Tories on TV this morning moaning about Lib Dems getting assistance by Plaid Cymru and Greens withdrawing candidates from the by-election. Aren't the Tories getting massive assistance in forming a government with the DUP? And then them claiming their candidate was very popular and respected. What? When he was found guilty for fraudulent expenses claims? The Tories are a law unto themselves they really are.

CaledonianCraig wrote:It is really funny listening to Tories on TV this morning moaning about Lib Dems getting assistance by Plaid Cymru and Greens withdrawing candidates from the by-election. Aren't the Tories getting massive assistance in forming a government with the DUP? And then them claiming their candidate was very popular and respected. What? When he was found guilty for fraudulent expenses claims? The Tories are a law unto themselves they really are.

Found guilty for fraudulent expenses claims and then unseated by the people he was supposed to be representing.

Pr4wn wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:It is really funny listening to Tories on TV this morning moaning about Lib Dems getting assistance by Plaid Cymru and Greens withdrawing candidates from the by-election. Aren't the Tories getting massive assistance in forming a government with the DUP? And then them claiming their candidate was very popular and respected. What? When he was found guilty for fraudulent expenses claims? The Tories are a law unto themselves they really are.

Found guilty for fraudulent expenses claims and then unseated by the people he was supposed to be representing.

It was funny as well as the Tory MP then claimed that the area had voted for Brexit. I am not sure what point he was trying to make as it shows that people's minds change over small periods of time. Perhaps people voted solely for Brexit with a deal being struck but now people do not want it if there is No Deal as it looks certain to be now hence how they voted in the by-election.

Fact check it.

A poll by Lord Ashcroft a former Tory shows 52% would now vote Yes for Scottish Indepence with No standing at 48%.

Does anyone ever wonder why individual societies, and larger political entities, now seem to Always be split pretty much down the middle?

It always seems to be a percentage that either wants to go one way or the other based on nothing more than a good loud sneeze.

Strange that the World finds itself so finely divided on basically anything one cares to throw up for a vote - right wing/left wing, Globalist/Nationalist, Trump, Boris, sexism, climate change,  EU, Brexit, Scottish Independence etc, etc, etc.  
Everything miraculously seems to be on a knife edge - "you won the vote this time but if we had it tomorrow, on that result, we'd probably beat you when a few people realised their mistake."

Is it all really so naturally on edge, even though many many of us in the western world, for example, have read the same books, watched the same TV and movies, listen to the same music, and pretty much up until the relatively recent past, watched the same news shows.

And a bloody unquestionable big majority can be found for so little?  

Do we as humans just naturally crave rancour and division and contrariness  (not for one moment claiming this is a bad thing as it hints soundly at evolution doing its natural business) or is it more an orchestrated controlled environment created by our governing overlords (politicians, corporate gods, bankers etc) to serve a greater cruising purpose that we plebs are never given access to?
Just very weird sometimes when you keep hearing the polls on just about anything and it's mostly always in that 50something/40something band.

Dictatorship needed to break the stalemate!  I'll elect myself World leader with a heavy heart.....now where's my private destroyer Pleasure yacht, I need a break from my duties already.

SecretFly wrote:Do we as humans just naturally crave rancour and division and contrariness  (not for one moment claiming this is a bad thing as it hints soundly at evolution doing its natural business) or is it more an orchestrated controlled environment created by our governing overlords (politicians, corporate gods, bankers etc) to serve a greater cruising purpose that we plebs are never given access to?

I'd say it's 50/50.

Okay then. Proven. We need a true voice of the oppressed peoples to take us out of this Groundhog Day nightmare. Better the whip and chain of certainty than to constantly endure a 50/50 split existence.

The reason Scots seek independence is if you look at the make-up of Parliament then Scotland has around 8.5% of all seats in the house. Not much of a voice that in what is meant to be a union of equals.

In the last 20 years or so politically Scotland has drifted away from the rest of the UK. Across England and Wales certainly then Tories and Labour are still the daddy parties - that is no longer the case in Scotland.

Again, I can fully understand the concept of the desire for Independence amongst many Scottish people.  It's a noble idea not a dirty idea and it in no way infers an isolationist caving inward of a newly won xenophobia if it was ever achieved.  
I'm sure any new Independent Scotland would be outward looking both in terms of philosophical desire and in terms of downright blunt pragmatism.  I'm sure a newly Independent Scotland would want a warm and familial relationship with its nearest neighbour (England) and a healthy trading relationship.  All that would be different is that the sovereign government that ruled over the territory would be more genuinely representative of the needs and distinct wishes of the Scottish people, and no longer have much of their destiny be decided for them from London.  Any agreements would be based finally on an agreement of equals...two sovereign Nations rather than two greatly variant populations.

So I agree with all that.  And that's why I always have an issue with Scottish Nationalists who want to escape the unequal balance of representation in a 'union of equals' dominated by the large population of England yet are so enthusiastic about the other 'union of equals' where their representation is even far less of a percentage.
Also, as the London-centric Union continues to lose ancient power to devolution, this other Union is only increasing its centralised grip on power as the French/German axis assumes more and more to speak for and plan for what they deem to be the rightful future of the EU, without consulting their 'equal' partners at all.  This extends even to the point of choosing which nations shall be our friend and which our enemies.  

Scotland and no other small Nation in Europe will have any more realistic an 'equal' voice in the future of that European Union than you say the Scottish now have in Westminster.  Any leader of any small EU Nation that claims otherwise is either extremely ignorant of how power works of they've already sold out the idea of 'equal' representation as they bow to the sexy EUism/euphemism of "pooling sovereignty".  It's not designed to be a pool, it's designed to be a quicksand pit where sovereignty (Independence) dies.... certainly for the little ones.

The future dreams of Europhiles is as clear as day and it's in treaty print - and yet still we have National politicians claim all is fine, they still control their own National destiny, the EU will never become a United States with a central Government.  Such  talk is only fear mongering etc, etc.  
No - it's truth.  The only way to guarantee 'Independence' is to get out when getting out is doable legally.  Regions trying to get out of Internationally recognised Nations have a much stickier time getting out, as Catalonians and Scottish people already know.  Even the referenda on Leaving have to be approved by the entity you want to Leave!  Thus the rush by Europhiles to consolidate what's left when/if the UK leaves.  They already want to cut off escape routes of other like minded Nations by pushing for greater and greater legal 'harmony'.  Try having an Independent voice in that set up with 5 million people to work with against 450 million.  

And don't rely on any good faith of other small Nations to stick together either.  Won't happen.  After all, we didn't get to host a Rugby World Cup..... . There is no natural loyalties, only deals and money.

Quick question Secret Fly. Do you see Ireland as an independent country?

CaledonianCraig wrote:The reason Scots seek independence is if you look at the make-up of Parliament then Scotland has around 8.5% of all seats in the house. Not much of a voice that in what is meant to be a union of equals.

In the last 20 years or so politically Scotland has drifted away from the rest of the UK. Across England and Wales certainly then Tories and Labour are still the daddy parties - that is no longer the case in Scotland.

Some Scots, namely less than half.

Soul Requiem wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The reason Scots seek independence is if you look at the make-up of Parliament then Scotland has around 8.5% of all seats in the house. Not much of a voice that in what is meant to be a union of equals.

In the last 20 years or so politically Scotland has drifted away from the rest of the UK. Across England and Wales certainly then Tories and Labour are still the daddy parties - that is no longer the case in Scotland.

Some Scots, namely less than half.

Prove that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum