Ireland WC

First topic message reminder :

Bit early i know.
Will update squads etc once they are announced.
And add the fixtures when I get a spare 10 mins.

Will Addison has been called up to the training squad

Cyril wrote:Sounds like wishful thinking, Fly. Do you honestly think there is any real holding back of players for the last year in favour of a World Cup? You’ve been saying this since (after) the first game of the 6 Nations.

No side sets itself up to get the stuffing knocked out of it in a major tournament and then again in warm up games just to ‘bounce back’ just in time. Especially not a side who are so reliant on confidence.

Seems you only read me selectively, Cyril.

I'm not in camp, I'm not on speed dial to Joe of any of the players.  I don't have a back seat in training  or attend video dissection classes.

So I, like all of you, do a heck of an amount of guessing based on words from players/coaches, what I see on the field, what my experiences are of Irish rugby over the decades, what I instinctively feel from week to week, what I believe Irish players as individuals are capable of, what their records might be, what might be motivating them.

I've criticised the team more heavily than plenty of others in here.  I've done the misery stuff, the "we're hopeless" stuff.... and if you read more of me, even in recent weeks, you'd know that.

So.... I'll say we don't have a snowball's chance in hell at the WC if you really want me to, Cyril.  I'll say we're primitive and spent as a side.  I'll say we're not in that same league as England and Wales plus others on the top rungs of the rankings.  I'll say anything to put a smile on your face, Cyril..... but I won't think those things.

I'll think we're playing 3rd world rugby for a year now, that we have the players that can play much much  better, that it's reasonable to assume we haven't forgotten what is needed to compete with you top class, blue ribbon sides  .... that we can surprise and punish expectations of us...positively as well as negatively.

So yeah, we could be destroyed by Wales in the next two games...and we could win a World Cup.  It's all possible.  I'm guessing. Don't be offended by my guess work, it ain't personal.  You got a great team there, possible World Cup winners - I'm guessing again of course.

To be honest, Fly, I think you’ll win the pool handily enough. It’s just those buggers NZ and SA that will cause the problem.

Cyril wrote:To be honest, Fly, I think you’ll win the pool handily enough. It’s just those buggers NZ and SA that will cause the problem.

Wishful thinking there Cyril!

Wales team:

Wales: Hallam Amos; Owen Lane, Scott Williams, Owen Watkin, Steff Evans; Jarrod Evans, Aled Davies; Rhys Carre, Ryan Elias, Samson Lee, Adam Beard, Bradley Davies, Aaron Shingler, Josh Navidi (capt), James Davies.
Replacements: Elliot Dee, Rob Evans, Leon Brown, Jake Ball, Ross Moriarty, Tomos Williams, Rhys Patchell, Jonah Holmes.


This is most likely the Ireland team:
IRELAND (possible v Wales, Cardiff, Saturday, 2.30pm): Will Addison; Andrew Conway, Chris Farrell, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Jack Carty, Kieran Marmion; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; James Ryan, Iain Henderson; Tadhg Beirne, Peter O’Mahony (capt), Jack Conan.
Replacements: Andrew Porter, Rory Best, Tadhg Furlong, Devin Toner, Jordi Murphy, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Garry Ringrose.
.

Interesting line up from Ireland.

It looks like the big loser is Rhys Ruddock, surely he won't make cut now.

Porter covering LH again.

Henderson's 3rd appearance and second start. Is that a sign he has secured his place or that he needs to redeem himself. Toner will surely start next week alongside Ryan. Has Kleyn blown it or will he bench next week?

Conway's 3rd start at 14, albeit Earls is injured. That would suggest he is likely going ahead of DK....

Interesting that Addison is still in the frame. Could that be a sign there are injury concerns for Earls or Henshaw?

I expect Aki will make way for Ringrose and we'll see Farrell switch.

Started a match day thread for the test this weekend. Thought it might help keep your pre-RWC thread separate..!

https://www.606v2.com/t69018-wales-vs-ireland-31st-of-august-match-thread#3835931

After today's game anyone else think that maybe Conway and Addison will go to Japan with Farrell missing out?
That's assuming Henshaw and earls are both fit?
Also I think scanell is now in pole position to take over from best.
And Jack McGrath will miss out

Carty is now our number 2 ten untill carberry returns

carpet baboon wrote:Carty is now our number 2 ten untill carberry returns

Well yes carpet, but that Wales side wasn't England stuffed with first teamers in full belligerent flow.  We need to know which fill-in 10 can live with a top team in full competitive flow.  Too late now I know for 'testing'.. the choice has to be made and hope for the best if Sexton is injured.

Plus..... our 10s.... all of them need to become much better points takers.  They all get a few, lose an important few and in these games where groups of 3 and 2 points are so important.... I get so frustrated by this continuous Irish issue that nobody seems to give a Schidt about.  It's just too inconsistent.  Other top sides have so many great consistently accurate kicking options.  Not getting these points metronomically keeps us struggling to create the gaps needed for breathing space.

Id take Carty ahead of Carbery

SecretFly wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:Carty is now our number 2 ten untill carberry returns

Well yes carpet, but that Wales side wasn't England stuffed with first teamers in full belligerent flow.  We need to know which fill-in 10 can live with a top team in full competitive flow.  Too late now I know for 'testing'.. the choice has to be made and hope for the best if Sexton is injured.

Plus..... our 10s.... all of them need to become much better points takers.  They all get a few, lose an important few and in these games where groups of 3 and 2 points are so important.... I get so frustrated by this continuous Irish issue that nobody seems to give a Schidt about.  It's just too inconsistent.  Other top sides have so many great consistently accurate kicking options.  Not getting these points metronomically keeps us struggling to create the gaps needed for breathing space.

That is true. But our best goal kicker is the scrum half Joe has already binned.

The predicted Ireland Squad on Joe

PROPS (5)
Cian Healy, Dave Kilcoyne, Tadhg Furlong, Andrew Porter, John Ryan
HOOKERS (3)
Rory Best, Niall Scannell, Sean Cronin
LOCKS (4)
James Ryan, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne
BACK ROW (5)
Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander, Jordi Murphy, Jack Conan
SCRUM-HALVES (2)
Conor Murray, Kieran Marmion
OUT-HALVES (3)
Johnny Sexton, Jack Carty, Joey Carbery
MIDFIELD (4)
Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Will Addison
BACK THREE (5)
Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale, Rob Kearney, Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway

Porter LH and TH cover, and he’s pretty good so not sure what Guns was talking about. If Ireland have their open-sides available then it’s beginning to look like a good team again.

Kleyn misses out. Seems a bit of a cheap cap now.

Is Aki back to first choice 12?

6 scrum penalties awarded to Ireland, if we can maintain that dominance in the scrum next Saturday we have a good shot of backing up our win.

Collapse2005 wrote:6 scrum penalties awarded to Ireland, if we can maintain that dominance in the scrum next Saturday we have a good shot of backing up our win.

Possibly, but 3 of those Welsh props from yesterday have been culled from the squad completely. So they won’t be playing next Saturday I assume. Fingers crossed that means a better Welsh scrum!

I pretty sure it does

Still not a strong area for Wales. First choice is probably Francis, Owens and Smith - not exactly a world beating unit or anything to make the opposition quake in their boots. But still hopefully enough to get parity and not get munched like the scrum yesterday (although we seemed to get the march on the Irish scrum on two occasions).

The Oracle wrote:Still not a strong area for Wales. First choice is probably Francis, Owens and Smith - not exactly a world beating unit or anything to make the opposition quake in their boots. But still hopefully enough to get parity and not get munched like the scrum yesterday (although we seemed to get the march on the Irish scrum on two occasions).

From what I've seen so far, I would guess that the Welsh and Irish scrums are good enough to live with the All Black and Aussie ones, and will struggle with SA, France and England. Meanwhile, I think England will be hoping for plenty of knock ons - they probably have the best replacement tight 5

I’m gonna be controversial and say Kilcoyne should start with Healy coming off the bench. Less controversial for me would be POM missing out entirely, Beirne to 6.

Poorfour wrote:

The Oracle wrote:Still not a strong area for Wales. First choice is probably Francis, Owens and Smith - not exactly a world beating unit or anything to make the opposition quake in their boots. But still hopefully enough to get parity and not get munched like the scrum yesterday (although we seemed to get the march on the Irish scrum on two occasions).

From what I've seen so far, I would guess that the Welsh and Irish scrums are good enough to live with the All Black and Aussie ones, and will struggle with SA, France and England. Meanwhile, I think England will be hoping for plenty of knock ons - they probably have the best replacement tight 5

gaww, that as well? targets are definitely being moved onto the English backs, never mind what the rankings say. England go to the top of the betting I say.

Rumours that Toner might not make the squad.

profitius wrote:Rumours that Toner might not make the squad.

cause of citing or because he has been cut? That would be a strange call given how bad the lineout has been.

profitius wrote:Rumours that Toner might not make the squad.

Fitness or tactical reasons?

I can understand that Joe likes the Henderson/Ryan partnership. It's high work rate and explosive power.
But if he leaves Dev behind that says he's playing an extra lineout option in the back row. So Bernie at 6

Collapse2005 wrote:

profitius wrote:Rumours that Toner might not make the squad.

cause of citing or because he has been cut? That would be a strange call given how bad the lineout has been.

Cut. Murray Kinsellas "possible" squad is:

Possible Ireland World Cup squad:

Hookers (3): Rory Best, Niall Scannell, Sean Cronin

Props (5): Cian Healy, Dave Kilcoyne, Tadhg Furlong, John Ryan, Andrew Porter

Locks (4): James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne

Back rows (5): Peter O’Mahony, CJ Stander, Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Rhys Ruddock

Scrum-halves (2): Conor Murray, Luke McGrath

Out-halves (3): Johnny Sexton, Joey Carbery, Jack Carty

Centres (4): Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Will Addison

Back threes (5): Stockdale, Kearney, Keith Earls, Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway.


No Toner, Farrell, Marmion, Jordi Murphy, Herring, Jack McGrath

I think Farrell and McGrath might get cut alright but I cant see Toner getting axed. He is the one guy that Schimdt always picks. He has capped him more than anyone including Sexton.

They have to announce the team to world rugby today but will not announce publicly until Sunday.

I'd feel that if Toner hasn't made it, it's because he just doesn't have the  physique to be dynamic + physically belligerent, as there has also been murmurings that Ireland's style will indeed change to combat the increasing impotence of our methodical phase play to gain the traction that it once did.

I'd also assume if he is being dropped that perhaps the coaches are more satisfied with the lineout in training than there is evidence of it being okay on game day.

If our lineout was indeed so vulnerable without Toner then you simply couldn't afford to leave him off the plane.  Logic would presume coaches are not overly concerned about the lineout if Toner is dropped.

I can think of other players that lacked physical presence ahead of Toner.

Collapse2005 wrote:I can think of other players that lacked physical presence ahead of Toner.

You are right.  I've seen it too... Henderson being one surprising example if I'm forced to name names.

But what are we actually seeing in games?  Truth or deception.  Yes a bit of preparation timing blues but still, some bluffing just has to be going on on form terms or other players whose names will undoubtedly be on the Japan list shouldn't be on it either on current evidence of form.  Even the great white New hope, Beirne, has been merely okay without being anything resembling explosive yet in an Irish shirt.

Toner might be physical in those gritty close proximity spaces, but getting from A to B dynamically to charge up back play options?  
I always said he's become Ireland's undroppable.  That was an uncomfortable feeling.  Still is if he misses the plane and the lineout is as honestly fragile as it looks.

Heard from some sources that Farrell made the cut. I think Kilcoyne has earned his inclusion ahead of McGrath. He has been good this year.

Why are Ireland waiting till Sunday to announce?

Toner being out is definitely a surprise, I didn't see the game at the weekend, but against England the line out looked a big problem without him. What do you think the first choice lock partnership would be?

I thought Kleyn looked pretty average against Italy and completely lightweight against England. With Beirne looking a better 6 than lock, I struggle to see the sense in omitting Toner.

BamBam wrote:Why are Ireland waiting till Sunday to announce?

Joe has always had this thing about being last. Who knows?

Toner would be a surprise, I presume he simply isn't fully fit.

Kleyn has been average enough and we've yet to see Beirne at lock.

I think he has to take Addison to cover 15 and Conway has looked sharp. Farrell would be unlucky but 4 centers is probably a luxury we can't afford.

Didnt think the weather would be a factor but it looks like this year will be marginally hotter than historical averages for September in Japan. Its possible that the games v Scotland and Japan could be up to 28 degrees which is very hot for a rugby match.

I can see the thinking if that is the squad.
If he wants a more mobile BR against the Scots he could go Bernie, Conan, VDF.
If he wants to overpower Japan he can pick PoM CJ and Ruddock.
And Ruddock can cover SR can't he?

Collapse2005 wrote:Didnt think the weather would be a factor but it looks like this year will be marginally hotter than historical averages for September in Japan. Its possible that the games v Scotland and Japan could be up to 28 degrees which is very hot for a rugby match.

 It is, but cooler than last week at Twickenham.

LondonTiger wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Didnt think the weather would be a factor but it looks like this year will be marginally hotter than historical averages for September in Japan. Its possible that the games v Scotland and Japan could be up to 28 degrees which is very hot for a rugby match.

 It is, but cooler than last week at Twickenham.

Really? Didnt realise it was so hot last week. How hot was it?

28 is probably worst case scenario so fingers crossed it wont the that hot.

31degrees at kick off.

Apparently the squad is being announced today rather than Sunday, must be due to the leaks

LondonTiger wrote:31degrees at kick off.

Thats interesting. Thats very hot for 80 minutes of rugby.

Collapse2005 wrote:Didnt think the weather would be a factor but it looks like this year will be marginally hotter than historical averages for September in Japan. Its possible that the games v Scotland and Japan could be up to 28 degrees which is very hot for a rugby match.

It's the humididty which does you in Japan. Usually gets better later in the year but today was bad. Still, we have a few weeks to go.

Rugby Fan wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Didnt think the weather would be a factor but it looks like this year will be marginally hotter than historical averages for September in Japan. Its possible that the games v Scotland and Japan could be up to 28 degrees which is very hot for a rugby match.

It's the humididty which does you in Japan. Usually gets better later in the year but today was bad. Still, we have a few weeks to go.

I was in Japan in September a few years ago and it never got above 24/25. Mostly sunny with some rain, perfect for rugby.

Farrell makes it Addison out. Other than that it's the squad that was out this morning

carpet baboon wrote:Farrell makes it Addison out. Other than that it's the squad that was out this morning

Yeah I heard Farrell was in alright, must have been a late call.

Crikey that is a bit of mess, Joe won't be happy with the leaks.

I guess there were some very tight calls, you have to feel for Addison being named and then not named... personally I thought he did enough and he's the only genuine 15 behind Kearney but it would have been harsh on Farrell.

Ruddock is a big call but I wonder if the decision to try POM at 7 was a sign Murphy might miss out.

Toner and Marmion are the big omissions.

Surprised Ruddock made it in. He captained the Italy game and won't let anyone down. But he tends to be more of sign of stress/pressure starting to show. When Leinster were in their pomp, he isn't in the conversation, but when pressure comes on for a performance his name appears into the matchday.

Toner being jettisoned is a big call. But he must feel that Best and Henderson can run the lineout. Time for Hendo to step up. Will they fall into the usual trap or pushing for the back-of-the-lineout draw.

Cronin being picked is strange in the other direction. When Schmidt has had the option for a on-par or slightly below-cronin option he tended to drop Cronin out altogether. Is there something wrong with Herring?

Larmour is lucky to be selected. Addison missing out between Conway/Larmour/Addison is a surprise. Larmour is picked on name rather than what he's shown in recent games.

4 out and out centres selected means he's planning for attrition in that position which he must do. Are there too many players selected with history of high rate of recurring injuries? Especially centres where we have upped the numbers, front row where we've decided to reduce the numbers counter-intuitive, and backrow where the set up of the game means there will be heavy injuries.

Feel sorry for big Dev.  Don't suppose most people will realise how central a cog he has been in Irish successes and yet didn't make it to the big show.

Though he might want to stay in a hotel close to the airport for the duration.  If our lineout is going from bad to worse, Joe might nobble one of the less important players in training.

"Dev could you come out in a hurry? Little Luke was knocked out in a card game by Peter."

Do you have to replace like with like?

Ireland World Cup squad:

Backs: Rob Kearney (Leinster), Jordan Larmour (Leinster), Keith Earls (Munster), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster), Andrew Conway (Munster), Chris Farrell (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Jonathan Sexton (Leinster), Joey Carbery (Munster), Jack Carty (Connacht), Conor Murray (Munster), Luke McGrath (Leinster)

Forwards: Cian Healy (Leinster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Rory Best (Ulster, capt), Niall Scannell (Munster), Sean Cronin (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Andrew Porter (Leinster), John Ryan (Munster), James Ryan (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Jean Kleyn (Munster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster), CJ Stander (Munster), Peter O'Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Rhys Ruddock (Leinster).

By the way, I don't think Joe or any of the officials in IRFU are dumb people, so I don't know what the initial game was of saying he was going to withold the squad from the public for a week.  Ireland rugby is full of leakers and lurkers.  It was never a realistic prospect.

Maybe Joe was out to finally unmask the central leaker who has hounded him through his time before he goes.

Gallows for big Dev at dawn!  The culprit played his hand once too often.

SecretFly wrote:Feel sorry for big Dev.  Don't suppose most people will realise how central a cog he has been in Irish successes and yet didn't make it to the big show.

Though he might want to stay in a hotel close to the airport for the duration.  If our lineout is going from bad to worse, Joe might nobble one of the less important players in training.

"Dev could you come out in a hurry?  Little Luke was knocked out in a card game by Peter."

Do you have to replace like with like?

Not unless the rules have changed. In 2011 England replaced Sheridan with Waldrom and there were other examples of players replacing others in different positions in 2015.