QF2 - Match Thread - New Zealand v Ireland - 19/10/19 - K/O 11:15 BST

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

NZ



Team: B Barrett; Reece, Goodhue, Lienert-Brown, Bridge; Mo'unga, Smith; Moody, Taylor, Laulala, Retallick, Whitelock; Savea, Cane, Reid.

Replacements: Coles, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao, S Barrett, Todd, Perenara, Williams, J Barrett.


Ireland



Team: Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, James Ryan, O'Mahony; Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbery, Larmour.



Venue: Tokyo
Referee: Nigel Owens
AR1: Pascal Gauzere
AR2: Angus Gardiner
TMO: Graham Hughes

[Old Man]

AB’s do kick a lot, by memory they made something like 39 kicks in the opening game.

Difference is though they kick very astutely and accurately

[Collapse2005]

AB’s do kick a lot, by memory they made something like 39 kicks in the opening game.

Difference is though they kick very astutely and accurately

No question about that

[Collapse2005]

Key for thr ABs will be their back row and defense. Both will need to be better than it has been lately v Ireland if they want to win this one.

[rodders]

AB’s do kick a lot, by memory they made something like 39 kicks in the opening game.

Difference is though they kick very astutely and accurately

No question about that

I think that is correct and the key to the game is how well Ireland can retain the ball.

[Engine#4]

Hats off to them if they can outgun the Irish backrow given the week that's in it with the anniversary of Anthony Foley's passing.

[The Great Aukster]

Ireland’s form is a bit off, but with that comes the knowledge Ireland will most certainly lift for this encounter.

Hansen has picked a talented team, but with some sense of experimentation to it.

If you picked only on recent form the odds are with NZ, but we all know knock out matches are never a forgone conclusion.

Big sense of experimentation, and why not? Hansen obviously feels he can afford to take risks having missed the Italy run out. This almost 'foregone conclusion' is the perfect opportunity to test options for bigger encounters. The odds are also massively in his favour, as Ireland have never progressed beyond this stage and the ABs are the current Champions. On top of that Ireland are not on form with injury concerns and New Zealand are rested, fit and firing.

The rain is the only glimmer of hope for Ireland - even the AB's slippery handling will be tested playing a fast game in slippery conditions. Schmidt's team on the other hand have played their conservative brand in all conditions so may be less affected by it - hence his selection of the experienced players for what is effectively their RWC Final.

[Collapse2005]

I think this (or France) is the perfect quarter final for Ireland. NZ are favorites and therefore no chance of complacency which may have been to blame for poor performances in previous quarters. Our previous best performance in a quarter was against the favorites in 1991, Australia.

Happy enough not to have to play England and Wales and they know us inside out and I have begun to buy into the hype around SA as they do now appear to have found some consistency to their game and I dont think Ireland would like SAs ferocious defense.

France and Japan would have been easier opponents but we cant get Japan and we lost to the already anyway.

I think the match up kind of suits Ireland too in terms of styles.

I think we have the players, game plan and belief to make NZ look quite average on Saturday and get the win. Hopefully thats how it pans out. Slightly concerned with Owens but we shall see.

Win lose or implode Joe Schmidt's impact on Irish rugby will live on untainted for a long time.

[Duty281]

If Ireland play to their potential, this has all the makings of a close encounter. Trouble is, the Irish haven’t played to their potential since last autumn!

I’m expecting the four favourites - England/Kiwis/Wales/South Africa - all to win this weekend, but if an upset is to happen I think it is most likely to come from this game.

[Taylorman]

AB’s do kick a lot, by memory they made something like 39 kicks in the opening game.

Difference is though they kick very astutely and accurately

No question about that

I think that is correct and the key to the game is how well Ireland can retain the ball.

Which is why I don’t think they’ll kick a lot at all, unless they think they’ll retrieve it for certain. Why pick a side obviously intent on high pace and energy, and kick to a side that at its center wants to retain the ball.

Makes zero sense.

[Collapse2005]

AB’s do kick a lot, by memory they made something like 39 kicks in the opening game.

Difference is though they kick very astutely and accurately

No question about that

I think that is correct and the key to the game is how well Ireland can retain the ball.

Which is why I don’t think they’ll kick a lot at all, unless they think they’ll retrieve it for certain. Why pick a side obviously intent on high pace and energy, and kick to a side that at its center wants to retain the ball.

Makes zero sense.

because New Zealand want to fulfill their destiny of being the first side to lose to Ireland in the quarter finals.

[rodders]

I think this (or France) is the perfect quarter final for Ireland

I just hope we leave something in the tank for the SF.... Ireland to beat the ABs, stuff England and get revenge on Japan in the final....

[SecretFly]

I think this (or France) is the perfect quarter final for Ireland

I just hope we leave something in the tank for the SF.... Ireland to beat the ABs, stuff England and get revenge on Japan in the final....  

That would be a perfect ending.  I'd love to get another crack at Japan.  Oh well..... first reality; knacker the bejaysus out of ourselves getting the 3 point win against NZ, then have nothing left in the tank for England, who'll marmalise us for the 3rd time this year.

[Taylorman]

We still need our revenge on Ireland last start. Can’t have two in a row, haven’t for ten years

[Collapse2005]

First time for everything Taylorman

[Taylorman]

True, as Japan illustrated

[Taylorman]

Ireland’s form is a bit off, but with that comes the knowledge Ireland will most certainly lift for this encounter.

Hansen has picked a talented team, but with some sense of experimentation to it.

If you picked only on recent form the odds are with NZ, but we all know knock out matches are never a forgone conclusion.

Big sense of experimentation, and why not? Hansen obviously feels he can afford to take risks having missed the Italy run out. This almost 'foregone conclusion' is the perfect opportunity to test options for bigger encounters. The odds are also massively in his favour, as Ireland have never progressed beyond this stage and the ABs are the current Champions. On top of that Ireland are not on form with injury concerns and New Zealand are rested, fit and firing.

The rain is the only glimmer of hope for Ireland - even the AB's slippery handling will be tested playing a fast game in slippery conditions. Schmidt's team on the other hand have played their conservative brand in all conditions so may be less affected by it - hence his selection of the experienced players for what is effectively their RWC Final.

Our best test this year was in cold, rainy conditions. Barrett said a wet ball- due to rain was far better than one due to humidity. Besides, the game doesn’t need boring conservatism. This is the games showpiece, the main event.

[Guest]

Don't get points for style.

Don't think this will be a particularly riveting game - one for the purists. Tense, though.

[SecretFly]

Well, there are a lot of people watching around the world at these WC games who are perhaps very new to the game.  They've heard that fast and furious with loads of tries is the best that it gets.  And I'm sure the newbies enjoy those games.

But that's the beauty of rugby.  There are different versions.  If this game becomes an epic attritional slugfest for purists - and they can be absolutely riveting - then there'll also be newbies who enjoyed the fancy stuff to a degree but weren't really connected until the other version showed it's face.  Different preferences emerge.  Newbies become purists.

[Taylorman]

Very true, and key to the League comparison which every side everywhere has a five tackle kick, five tackle kick gameplan. That's it.

Schmidt has found thus style gives Ireland its best chance of winning matches, beating the ABs. But as a kiwi, he will not like that position. Irish kids want to be admiring players more like Larmour, not Kearney, as 'safe' as he is.

[Guest]

I can see the ABs running the Irish side ragged and winning comfortably

[Collapse2005]

Did you copy and past that from November Ebop?

[SecretFly]

I can see the ABs running the Irish side ragged and winning comfortably

Are roo from New Zealand, Ebop?

[SecretFly]

No need to be shy, Ebop. We'll do an 'England', that's what you mean.

Everyone remembers England.

Maybe that's Joe's 'set up'.

[asoreleftshoulder]

NZ will struggle against our defense, they are a great team in attack when it's turnover ball or kick return but they won't get much of that against this Ireland team. They will struggle to break us down in phase play, be forced to kick at us and then won't get the ball back for long periods.They aren't patient enough in defense so will give away penalties giving us attacking territory and possession.
Ireland to win by 10 +

[Guest]

Guns, this is a RWC game on neutral soil and the ABs know how to win important RWC games home and away, unlike Ireland. It’ll be an AB shut out. Ireland won’t know how to score and after being run ragged will implode. Ireland won’t be able to rely on the referee to bail them out with penalties because Owens doesn’t focus solely on the ABs like a lot of NH referees (eg, Barnes, wacky French double act).

[Collapse2005]

Sounds like they just need to show up

[majesticimperialman]

This should be an All Black's win. But beware of the Irish, they have a tendency to put in some magic play. 

It is on neutral ground, so no advantage to either team. If Ireland are in front at half time, it will be a question can New  Zealand make a come back? thing is they have done it before in lots of game's but this is a rugby world cup. 

Will the thought of making the first team to win the RWC 3 times in a row get to them.
For Ireland's sake lets hope so.

[Guest]

No need to be shy, Ebop

Just needed more spice for Guns

[Taylorman]

Guns, this is a RWC game on neutral soil and the ABs know how to win important RWC games home and away, unlike Ireland. It’ll be an AB shut out. Ireland won’t know how to score and after being run ragged will implode. Ireland won’t be able to rely on the referee to bail them out with penalties because Owens doesn’t focus solely on the ABs like a lot of NH referees (eg, Barnes, wacky French double act).

Well I agree.
Some don't remember but talk of a French upset in 2015 was just as frequent at this point.

After the 50-60 odd point win that changed to 'well they played probably the worst French team in decades' - funny that, post match when France were just as competitive in pool as Ireland this time.

[SecretFly]

Yes but that's a French stat.

You might shaft us and embarrass us with th shoreline. But...then again...you mightn't.

[Taylorman]

I know Fly, we may not, and I'll look really stooopid on here but over the years you learn from things and speaking your mind on a forum anonymously is really not an environment to be too concerned about.

I know I'm a pain with my comments to many but I also agree with speaking my mind. Unfortunately this is rugby and NZ has a vested interest in it that makes it absorbing for most of us.

So I take the view that we're going to win every time, and on that I can only be wrong 15% of the time or so. I also take the view that innovation and new ideas make this game the beauty it is and frown on those taking up a style thats designed to kill a game of creativity...until it suits, and its because there are those that enjoy that style that makes the discussion invigorating. No point us all agreeing that the AB way is the only way.

[Taylorman]

If the ABs lose Hansen will be swamped with Kiwi's saying why dump the tried and trues...the Crottys, Smiths who's game management and decision making is second to none and instead go with the just out of school kids who just want to tear up everything.

No other coach would drop Crotty and Smith right out.

But for me, thats how far Hansens come as a coach, he'll back youth and he'll back potential. And with the numbers leaving, he has had to. But I think in doing that, he's found a new niche of success. If players are raw and brash enough...the fearless teenager concept...and theyre brought into the AB environment to push the envelope, he'll let them at it.

And thats what we are hoping to see tomorrow. A side extending itself as far as it can possibly go. Do as much as is humanly possible in the time and space they have for the 80 as athletes in this sport. And for me that will be Hansens legacy, the accumulation of knowledge that has brought him to this point.

[Guest]

Well I agree.
Some don't remember but talk of a French upset in 2015 was just as frequent at this point.

After the 50-60 odd point win that changed to 'well they played probably the worst French team in decades' - funny that, post match when France were just as competitive in pool as Ireland this time.

Not really. It was just years of hoping/waiting/wanting to see France be the team of old that was inconsistent, but capable of world beating brilliance. They haven't been close to that since 2011, when the likes of Heymans, Clerc, Poitrenaud were in the back 3.

Instead, there were years of 'ooh, but they'll eventually come good, surely...' until, yes, quite clearly, the ABs hammering them was a sign that they really were in the sh1t, this wasn't just inconsistency or a cultural issue, and France have (annd would) go on to spend the rest of the decade outside the top table of rugby nations.

You're just about the only one still pushing the 'but it's France...you never know' narrative on this site. No on else really is. Everyone expects a relatively tough but comfortable Welsh win if they don't bottle it. France are the 7th best team left in the tournament. Individually very good, but nothing suggests these players have played in anything other than amateur-coached sides. They don't have that 'thing' that old French teams could fall back on.

Not everything's about NZ.

[Collapse2005]

Guns, this is a RWC game on neutral soil and the ABs know how to win important RWC games home and away, unlike Ireland. It’ll be an AB shut out. Ireland won’t know how to score and after being run ragged will implode. Ireland won’t be able to rely on the referee to bail them out with penalties because Owens doesn’t focus solely on the ABs like a lot of NH referees (eg, Barnes, wacky French double act).

Well I agree.
Some don't remember but talk of a French upset in 2015 was just as frequent at this point.

After the 50-60 odd point win that changed to 'well they played probably the worst French team in decades' - funny that, post match when France were just as competitive in pool as Ireland this time.

Ireland beat France fairly easily in 15. Dont recall them being that competitive. No one was scared of France in 15..
..except NZ.

[Geen sport voor watjes]

NZ will struggle against our defense, they are a great team in attack when it's turnover ball or kick return but they won't get much of that against this Ireland team.  They will struggle to break us down in phase play, be forced to kick at us and then won't get the ball back for long periods.They aren't patient enough in defense so will give away penalties giving us attacking territory and possession.
Ireland to win by 10 +

Personally I can’t believe I agree with you but looking at both teams I think we will win this by 10+

[Guest]

Losing to Japan was surely the death knell for Ireland in this tournament. They did win subsequent games against no-names but it’ll be difficult to flush the dunny on that Japan loss.

[Taylorman]

Well I agree.
Some don't remember but talk of a French upset in 2015 was just as frequent at this point.

After the 50-60 odd point win that changed to 'well they played probably the worst French team in decades' - funny that, post match when France were just as competitive in pool as Ireland this time.

Not really. It was just years of hoping/waiting/wanting to see France be the team of old that was inconsistent, but capable of world beating brilliance. They haven't been close to that since 2011, when the likes of Heymans, Clerc, Poitrenaud were in the back 3.

Instead, there were years of 'ooh, but they'll eventually come good, surely...' until, yes, quite clearly, the ABs hammering them was a sign that they really were in the sh1t, this wasn't just inconsistency or a cultural issue, and France have (annd would) go on to spend the rest of the decade outside the top table of rugby nations.

You're just about the only one still pushing the 'but it's France...you never know' narrative on this site. No on else really is. Everyone expects a relatively tough but comfortable Welsh win if they don't bottle it. France are the 7th best team left in the tournament. Individually very good, but nothing suggests these players have played in anything other than amateur-coached sides. They don't have that 'thing' that old French teams could fall back on.

Not everything's about NZ.

Yes I'll give you that, and it represents about 30-40 years of French rugby that looks to have gone down the gurgler if thats the case, but, as ever, when you're burnt...twice, nearly three times you don't forget easily. Even now it still wouldnt surprise me if France rip it, simply because its a world cup...and those guys share how they managed to beat the odds over the years.

France were also 5th in 2011 and lost twice in pool so they actually werent that good- results wise- then either, but somehow turned superhuman post pool.

[Guest]

This French team is significantly better than the one in 2015, but not to the point where they look like they could run Wales ragged for 20-30 minutes. That would be the only way they could win and compensate for all their deficiencies. But when you look at the French team in 2015 - there are some absolute journeymen in that team. It's full of non-French average players. This side is at least a bit more French with a few Fijians thrown in.

France had won the 6Ns in 2010. The last time they won it. Not even close to comparing that French team to this one.

[Taylorman]

Yet they lost to Tonga in pool, then made the final. What I'm saying is, you can't classify France because they're all over the place. From one week to the next.

I know you support Wales, but there is ample evidence from this tournament's history alone to suggest France know how to go against the grain, and theyve been doing that more than most since 1987. Shouldnt have beaten oz then, but did.

Shouldnt have beaten the Abs in 99 and 07, but did. Shouldnt have made the final in 2011 after losing to Tonga, but did.

All I'm seeing from you is 'oh but thats all irrelevant now. Well, I don't see it. France have a solid history of performing, even when theyre considered poor.

Im not saying theyll win, but it sure wont surprise me if they do. Its what 'they do'. They are the masters of World cup upsets. So no point telling me how 'bad they re now'.

Heard that many times before.

[Taylorman]

NZ are either going to thrash Ireland or lose is the way I see it. If its close at the end Hansen will have sent boys out to do a mans job.

Thats my main concern. be a tragedy if it turns out that all we needed was to have ultra reliable Crotty and Ben Smith on and didnt even ask them to kit up.

As it is...in Hansen we trust...

[Taylorman]

Interesting the sides have only met once in this tournament. SA in 95 when NZ got a French version of the then 'grand slam' of the four home unions at the time.

My one memory from that match is the amazing 60 odd meter run of Lomu to all but score, handing up to Kronfeld who followed Lomu around all tournament picking up the pieces.

[Taylorman]

This French team is significantly better than the one in 2015, but not to the point where they look like they could run Wales ragged for 20-30 minutes. That would be the only way they could win and compensate for all their deficiencies. But when you look at the French team in 2015 - there are some absolute journeymen in that team. It's full of non-French average players. This side is at least a bit more French with a few Fijians thrown in.

France had won the 6Ns in 2010. The last time they won it. Not even close to comparing that French team to this one.

Since 2016 Wales have won 3, lost one:

France v Wales 10-19 W
France v Wales 20-18 F
France v Wales 13-14 W
France v Wales 19-24 W

Margins of 9, 5, 1 and -2, France scoring 6 tries to 5 across the four.

Can't see how this is that much of a mismatch to be honest, that doesnt assume dominance, thats two very close teams.
Certainly enough to not think all hope is lost for France.

[Pie]

Ireland to win and thought tight I expect to see the same hi tempo bullying of NZ that we saw in Chicago and last year. They just cant take it.

[Taylorman]

Ireland to win and thought tight I expect to see the same hi tempo bullying of NZ that we saw in Chicago and last year. They just cant take it.

Aha, not like Ireland can huh?

Japan, England, twice, Wales...all in 2019...lets see about them vs the ABs....Japan...never, Wales, 1954, England, oh, theres one...2012, then losing the next 6 straight.

I can see how they all troubled them (not)...

[Pie]

You're playing Ireland

[Taylorman]

Yep, in a world cup knockout. Different beast, as you saw with Japan. Ireland won't know what hit em. France to upset I'd say. Recent matches fairly even.

[The Great Aukster]

Same old blinkered thinking about creativity being spouted! Yes the ABs can convert a 2 on 1, so can others. Sometimes they offload out the back door, so can others. Maybe they're good at maximising turnover opportunities but where's the real creativity in that?
The most creative thing to happen on the rugby field for years didn't involve scoring tries at all but showed the power of the mind - when the Italians didn't engage with England and have no offside line. Now THAT was creativity!

[The Great Aukster]

Come to think of it the ABs do show a lot of creativity in the haka... and they brought the world the double spear tackle.

[Taylorman]

Come to think of it the ABs do show a lot of creativity in the haka... and they brought the world the double spear tackle.

Still crying huh? 14 years and counting.

Good thing about Ireland is probably for the first time ever they get to play the All Blacks when they want a match more than any other. Ireland haven’t progressed to that point in this tournament before. So Chicago and Dublin, or Auckland or anywhere else, nothing on this.

If Ireland manage to get up for this one, they will truly have come of age.

[Ninjarugby]

Tomorrow afternoon, either Schmidt or Hansen will be without a job but I'm sure they'll manage.
Some of the players will retire from international rugby & in fairness Rory Best & Read have had pretty decent careers so they can't really complain.
One things for sure from an Irish point of view I'm sure Best wouldn't have it any other way. It's a great way to go out (or stay in).
The pundits have had their say, the coaches have had their say & prepped their teams so not it's time to let the players do the talking.
All the talk about Ireland not getting past the quarter final is put on hold. This time 4 years ago, Ireland hadn't beaten the AB's, won in SA or beaten Aus on their own turf so they have progressed more than any other team IMO.
NZ have gone 17 games in the WC unbeaten & Ireland like beating teams on 17 game winning streaks.
Last team to beat NZ were France & I'm positive they didn't see that coming. France didn't see that coming either.
Before that in 2003 it was an interception from Mortlock if I'm not mistaken but the one thing I am sure of is that the AB's know they have a game on their hands and I expect fireworks so lets hope for a great game.
My only worry is that if Ireland do pull it off and give as much as they did 4 years ago they'll have nothing in the tank & injuries to face England (Sorry Oz, unless Hoopcock reinvent themselves that's just not going to happen), begrudgingly Curry & Underhill are class & & the English will have too much up front.
Hopefully we do get 1 surprise!

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