Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Duty281 wrote:Sunak speaks for a grand total of 84 seconds and then scuttles away to get his orders.

Crackpot.

Samo wrote:Latest Ipsos pooling for the Evening Standard:

Labour 47%
Cons 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%

The lowest Ipsos rating the Tories have had since the start of regular polling in 1978.  If this result was repeated nationwide in a general election Labour would have a 424 seat majority, with the Tories left with 25 seats, and Lib Dems becoming the official opposition with 47 seats.

Sunak is also polling at -54, which is the worst Tory leader rating in 30 years.  Infact only Corbyn (summer 2019) has polled lower since 1994.

Turns out demonizing migrants and trans people isnt actually a vote winner.  Better be a bloody good budget.

I would say "Here's hoping!", but I actually don't think Labour are that great. We need to ditch FPTP and have some form of PR, for one thing...

navyblueshorts wrote:

Samo wrote:Latest Ipsos pooling for the Evening Standard:

Labour 47%
Cons 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%

The lowest Ipsos rating the Tories have had since the start of regular polling in 1978.  If this result was repeated nationwide in a general election Labour would have a 424 seat majority, with the Tories left with 25 seats, and Lib Dems becoming the official opposition with 47 seats.

Sunak is also polling at -54, which is the worst Tory leader rating in 30 years.  Infact only Corbyn (summer 2019) has polled lower since 1994.

Turns out demonizing migrants and trans people isnt actually a vote winner.  Better be a bloody good budget.

I would say "Here's hoping!", but I actually don't think Labour are that great. We need to ditch FPTP and have some form of PR, for one thing...

At least alcohol duty was frozen....Cheaper for the majority of the Country to drown their sorrows at what a mess the Country is in..

Pathetic. Just pathetic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

What a surprise! A former Maggie 'fellow' at The Heritage Foundation with a background of specifically targetting Muslims.

I want to know why the Taxpayer is paying out for some muppet of a Tory slandering someone and getting rightly corrected for it..

Disgrace..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I want to know why the Taxpayer is paying out for some muppet of a Tory slandering someone and getting rightly corrected for it..

Disgrace..

You and me, both!

I remember when something like that would have been a strict resignation matter. Boris Johnsons influence lives on.

Samo wrote:I remember when something like that would have been a strict resignation matter.  Boris Johnsons influence lives on.

Living in strange times Samo.....Never would have thought i'd see a PM give such a xenophobic speech while crapping on democracy after the Rochdale count.......Dangerous speech trying to criminalise the right to protest.....and characterising people who voted against the system and genocide as basically thick or worse.

Personally.....Narcissistic, Divisive types like Galloway would never get my vote.......But if people want to vote for him they can and why they do should be of more importance to little Rishi than creating trouble..

I'm afraid I think the majority of our politicians are too far gone now. I'm sure there are some that genuinely mean well, but many of them have either already got out, or are doing so.

Currently reading Rory Stewart's 'Politics on the Edge'. Only ~1/3 of the way through and it's already clear how unsuited to being an MP or, God forbid, a Minister, too many of those from the recent past are/were.

Brave person, the IDF soldier that did this. Well done. I bet your mum is really proud of you - actually, she may well be:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68557147

I'm really impressed with the IDF. A top notch military, always ensuring the safety of non-combatants and treating the sick and injured in medical facilities with all the due care and attention that those places are accorded by various UN conventions etc:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68536243

The IDF and the actions of the Israeli state in Gaza are really something we should all look up to...

Latest polls:

Delta - 23% Labour lead; Redfield - 26%; We Think - 18%; Techne - 22%; Survation - 19%; YouGov - 24%; More in Common - 15%; Ashcroft - 22%; Savanta - 18%; Opinium - 16%.

So, just a matter of time before Labour get in. The door is closing, nearly closed, on any May election, so it seems September/October will be when it happens.

More talk of Tory MPs wanting to oust Sunak, but who would want the greatest of hospital passes in assuming the leadership at this stage?!

I could actually see a scenario where Sunak stands down before the election, perhaps because he doesn't want to go down with the ship, and caretaker leadership passes to Cameron who leads his party to a stunning comeback win after successfully arguing that it's a choice between traditionally strong and stable Tory government, or chaos with Keir Starmer solemnly leads the Tories into the GE campaign and hands the leadership off to whatever's left at the end of it.

The Tories are, in every poll I think, closer to third placed Reform than first placed Labour. As I've mentioned before, I'm unconvinced by Reform's relatively high place in the polls, where they're now recording as high as 14%, due to their multiple poor by-election results in the last few years, but for every polling company to be incorrect would be quite something. The vast majority have them between 11 and 14%, with Survation the lowest at 8%. A little lower, overall, than 2015 UKIP numbers at this stage.

There does exist a scenario where Farage returns to lead Reform, and then Reform overtake the Tories in the polls, at least in the short-term. Although, of course, even if Reform got more votes than the Tories at the GE (highly unlikely), the Tories would still end up with more seats, a lot more seats, due to FPTP.

Lib Dems not fulfilling their bit of the 1997 scenario. They got nearly 17% of the vote in 1997, but current polling has them struggling to go much higher than 10/11%, which isn't any better than their poor 2019 effort.

Writing been on wall for some time now, since debacle of Boris and partygate etc that Tories are going to lose and lose badly in GE and it doesn't matter who is leader they are doomed.
It all comes down to who wants to be party leader in opposition.

Replacing Sunak before election be madness and pointless.

Wouldn't worry about the Lib Dem share.....There will be a gentleman agreement to back off in Labour areas from the Dems and vice versa......

The Tories will be skewered on the Coast and in the Cities.

I expect thirty more Lib Dem mps at least....

Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

Landlords are thieves. The sooner they get in the bin the better.

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

We had a look at how the financials work for letting properties a few years ago when we had an inheritance to invest. If you are not a cash buyer its very hard to make the numbers balance, at least for a few years.

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

We do need immigrants, but we don't need over half a million every year, particularly with public services under strain.

I agree about AirBnbs which are a blight on society, and the need for more council properties. The need for most houses is in the South East/London area. Agree about a lot of second homes in Cornwall that lie empty, but not exactly sure there's a housing crisis in that part of the UK with it being sparsely populated.

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

We do need immigrants, but we don't need over half a million every year, particularly with public services under strain.

I agree about AirBnbs which are a blight on society, and the need for more council properties. The need for most houses is in the South East/London area. Agree about a lot of second homes in Cornwall that lie empty, but not exactly sure there's a housing crisis in that part of the UK with it being sparsely populated.

How many immigrants a year ?? Where from ?? The criteria ?? What about immigrants fleeing oppression ???.....You can't make blanket statements..

Immigrants aren't the problem....They are an easy target.......Blame them for the Country while 570 billion pounds is being held offshore according to "Taxjusticeuk"....

Wow just imagine if 40% of that was in the treasury......Higher wages.....More being spent on services...Social care....More money spent in shops and other enterprises......More jobs being created...A greener environment..

No we will blame Johnny Foreigner instead..

Open your eyes Son.....

EU migrants were net contributors to the UK economy but you Frak that with Brexit.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

We do need immigrants, but we don't need over half a million every year, particularly with public services under strain.

I agree about AirBnbs which are a blight on society, and the need for more council properties. The need for most houses is in the South East/London area. Agree about a lot of second homes in Cornwall that lie empty, but not exactly sure there's a housing crisis in that part of the UK with it being sparsely populated.

How many immigrants a year ?? Where from ?? The criteria ?? What about immigrants fleeing oppression ???.....You can't make blanket statements..

Immigrants aren't the problem....They are an easy target.......Blame them for the Country while 570 billion pounds is being held offshore according to "Taxjusticeuk"....

Wow just imagine if 40% of that was in the treasury......Higher wages.....More being spent on services...Social care....More money spent in shops and other enterprises......More jobs being created...A greener environment..

No we will blame Johnny Foreigner instead..

Open your eyes Son.....

You've gone off the deep end there.

I'm not blaming immigrants for the state of the country, neither did I hint at that in my post. But we don't need over half a million a year.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

We do need immigrants, but we don't need over half a million every year, particularly with public services under strain.

I agree about AirBnbs which are a blight on society, and the need for more council properties. The need for most houses is in the South East/London area. Agree about a lot of second homes in Cornwall that lie empty, but not exactly sure there's a housing crisis in that part of the UK with it being sparsely populated.

How many immigrants a year ?? Where from ?? The criteria ?? What about immigrants fleeing oppression ???.....You can't make blanket statements..

Immigrants aren't the problem....They are an easy target.......Blame them for the Country while 570 billion pounds is being held offshore according to "Taxjusticeuk"....

Wow just imagine if 40% of that was in the treasury......Higher wages.....More being spent on services...Social care....More money spent in shops and other enterprises......More jobs being created...A greener environment..

No we will blame Johnny Foreigner instead..

Open your eyes Son.....

You've gone off the deep end there.

I'm not blaming immigrants for the state of the country, neither did I hint at that in my post. But we don't need over half a million a year.

Based on what?

Based on Duty reading the Daily Mail.....

The paper that calls Public sector workers scroungers while supporting ex chancellors that forget to pay millions in Tax.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Personal opinion: absurd house prices/housing 'market' is the root of (almost) all evil in the U.K. This would be a start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/19/end-of-landlords-surprisingly-simple-solution-to-uk-housing-crisis

If we're going to continue with population growth of upwards of half a million a year, and it seems we are, we need more houses built. Simple as that. But neither Labour nor Tory will do this/are doing this.

There is a space for private landlords, but more restrictions need to be implemented. Buy to let mortgages shouldn't be a thing. Tenants should get more protection, both from evictions and rent rises. Johnny foreigner shouldn't be allowed to buy up houses and then rent them out, while watching the money roll in from his/her home in Malaysia or South Africa.

It should also be easier for people to buy homes. I'm not entirely sure how, but perhaps lower deposits could be a starting point? And if you're paying a f**kton of rent every month, it should prove your trustworthiness to pay a f**kton of a mortgage every month.

#shrug We need immigrants, but the right wing don't understand/accept that. Another argument, though.

There are plenty of houses empty; certainly for most of the year. Half of Devon/Cornwall is dead for 5 days-a-week, for most of the year due to second homes, AirBnBs etc - time to get rid/tax to the hilt. There's plenty of other properties empty and agree foreign investment in property (i.e. buying up en masse and off plan) should be stopped/re-possessed. Screw them - if a Government can't look after its own, what's the point of it?

The chant of 'build more!' just serves developers and their mates. By all means build more, but they should be Council-owned. Thatcher's sell off, while not replacing Council stock, was only half thought through.

We do need immigrants, but we don't need over half a million every year, particularly with public services under strain.

I agree about AirBnbs which are a blight on society, and the need for more council properties. The need for most houses is in the South East/London area. Agree about a lot of second homes in Cornwall that lie empty, but not exactly sure there's a housing crisis in that part of the UK with it being sparsely populated.

How many immigrants a year ?? Where from ?? The criteria ?? What about immigrants fleeing oppression ???.....You can't make blanket statements..

Immigrants aren't the problem....They are an easy target.......Blame them for the Country while 570 billion pounds is being held offshore according to "Taxjusticeuk"....

Wow just imagine if 40% of that was in the treasury......Higher wages.....More being spent on services...Social care....More money spent in shops and other enterprises......More jobs being created...A greener environment..

No we will blame Johnny Foreigner instead..

Open your eyes Son.....

You've gone off the deep end there.

I'm not blaming immigrants for the state of the country, neither did I hint at that in my post. But we don't need over half a million a year.

Based on what?

Based on having 800,000 16-24 year olds who are NEETS, but many businesses would rather import cheap labour from abroad. Based on not having enough housing or public services to provide adequately for people. Based on a majority of immigrants not being high skilled.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Based on Duty reading the Daily Mail.....

The paper that calls Public sector workers scroungers while supporting ex chancellors that forget to pay millions in Tax.

Don't read the Mail and currently work in the Civil Service, but carry on with your usual untruths.

Duty281 wrote:...I'm not blaming immigrants for the state of the country, neither did I hint at that in my post. But we don't need over half a million a year.

navyblueshorts wrote:Based on what?

Duty281 wrote:Based on having 800,000 16-24 year olds who are NEETS, but many businesses would rather import cheap labour from abroad. Based on not having enough housing or public services to provide adequately for people. Based on a majority of immigrants not being high skilled.

Sorry. Must be me. Why don't we need ~500k immigrants p.a. ? As things stand, perhaps we do. We certainly need someone to do the work and generate the taxes so that the increasing % retired population can still enjoy their holiday homes in Benidorm etc.
If housing is desperately needed, perhaps it would have been good not to evict the Polish (and other) builders? I bet those immigrants would be pretty keen on doing whatever is asked of them...

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:...I'm not blaming immigrants for the state of the country, neither did I hint at that in my post. But we don't need over half a million a year.

navyblueshorts wrote:Based on what?

Duty281 wrote:Based on having 800,000 16-24 year olds who are NEETS, but many businesses would rather import cheap labour from abroad. Based on not having enough housing or public services to provide adequately for people. Based on a majority of immigrants not being high skilled.

Sorry. Must be me. Why don't we need ~500k immigrants p.a. ? As things stand, perhaps we do. We certainly need someone to do the work and generate the taxes so that the increasing % retired population can still enjoy their holiday homes in Benidorm etc.
If housing is desperately needed, perhaps it would have been good not to evict the Polish (and other) builders? I bet those immigrants would be pretty keen on doing whatever is asked of them...

Because we've got enough of our own population to do what is termed unskilled labour, but some businesses would rather import cheap labour from overseas and keep the minimum wage as the maximum wage. Plus many are coming over as dependents of other immigrants (including students), and that's without getting into the numbers that are coming over as 'students' when, in reality, they're exploiting loopholes in the system. You could also add in our quite generous asylum system, with high rates of acceptance.

The majority of those people listed above burden our country. We do not need them.

Immigrants who fill the skills we need, asylum seekers genuinely fleeing persecution, and those actually pursuing educational aims, while fitting in with our socially liberal values, are a great asset to our country. But they don't account for the over half a million influx every year, unfortunately.

If housing is desperately needed, and it is, we need a government which actually has a proper house-building program. But Starmer's only planning to build 300,000 homes a year for the life of the next Parliament, which is barely more than the Tories.

Duty281 wrote:There does exist a scenario where Farage returns to lead Reform, and then Reform overtake the Tories in the polls, at least in the short-term. Although, of course, even if Reform got more votes than the Tories at the GE (highly unlikely), the Tories would still end up with more seats, a lot more seats, due to FPTP.

Poll out from YouGov today putting the Tories at 19%, Reform at 15%. 15% and led by a nobody in Tice could easily become 20%+ under Farage.

I wonder how much Reform will actually be squeezed by tactical voting at this election. UKIP in 2015 were squeezed by it, but that was during a tight contest in the race between Cameron and Miliband. In 2024, however, Tory voters might accept that Starmer's PM whether they vote for Reform or not, so they might as well 'protest' vote in this election.

Hopefully Reform beat the Tories to 2nd in this election in the popular vote stakes. When Reform inevitably end up with fewer seats than the Tories in that scenario, a proper light will be shone on the unfairness of FPTP.

How ****ed up is this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68631712

The US supports an immediate Gaza ceasefire at the UN etc, but China and Russia veto the motion. A nice look for Israel, at least - supported by dictatorships.

Not just re. this issue, but it's increasingly clear that the so-called 'Security Council' of the UN is not fit for purpose, and especially re. the Nations that have veto powers. A joke.

Another by-election defeat incoming for the Tories, as Benton resigns from his Blackpool South constituency. It was a Tory win in 2019, although Benton has since lost the whip.

This one will easily go to Labour*, and by a big margin, with a negligible Lib Dem/Green presence. As ever, will be interesting to see if Reform can finally justify their national polling with a decent showing - UKIP got 17% here in 2015. You'd expect Reform, if they really are polling at 11-15% nationally, to get 20%+ in a by-election.

*As long as they don't have to bin their own candidate again!

Duty281 wrote:Another by-election defeat incoming for the Tories, as Benton resigns from his Blackpool South constituency. It was a Tory win in 2019, although Benton has since lost the whip.

This one will easily go to Labour*, and by a big margin, with a negligible Lib Dem/Green presence. As ever, will be interesting to see if Reform can finally justify their national polling with a decent showing - UKIP got 17% here in 2015. You'd expect Reform, if they really are polling at 11-15% nationally, to get 20%+ in a by-election.

*As long as they don't have to bin their own candidate again!

Blackpool is the most Euro sceptic place in the North West with nearly 70% voting to leave the EU........If they can't breakthrough here then they might as well forget it..

Bigots and Rock are what Blackpool is famous for these days...

YouGov's latest MRP putting Labour at 403 seats, Tories at 155, Lib Dems at 49, SNP at 19. Roughly 1997 levels.

I know there's been a lot of polls where the Tories have been forecast to be double digits in terms of seats, but this MRP is a much more realistic figure and roughly in tune with what we can expect (as things stand).

Interestingly, this would see Mordaunt lose her seat (currently 4% behind Labour) and would take out someone who is strongly favoured to assume the leadership after Sunak's time is up, leaving the door open for Badenoch (her constituency, the newly formed North West Essex, has Badenoch leading by 14%, so she should almost certainly be returned to Parliament).

IDS and JRM are also out of the Commons on that polling. As are the seats of Shapps, Chalk, Donelan, Harper, Davies, and Mercer (all cabinet members; lost track of which ones are standing/not standing again!). Hunt's new seat is also being lost.

Gove is hanging on by a whisker (33-32 in his seat).  And even Sunak's constituency isn't safe - his lead is 39-27 over Labour, with the Lib Dems taking 10% and Reform taking 15%. Come on Lib Dems, stand down and let's see Sunak lose his seat. Portillio moment x1000.

In Scotland, the picture is 28 seats for Labour, 19 for the SNP, and 5 each for the Tories and Lib Dems. Still could be a lot of flux in that area. Looking at the polling in depth, a lot of Labour gains are by 1-3% margin, so it could easily flip back to SNP dominance.

It's a similar story with a lot of the forecasted gains for the LDs from the Tories, many of these are by wafer thin margins. But for now the Lib Dems are forecast to go to 49 seats, an increase of just over 30 seats, despite, um, not really gaining much in the way of votes since 2019. Such is FPTP and the power of concentrating the vote. But the Lib Dems certainly deserve more seats, even 49 is selling them short.

Reform are forecast to get 20%+ of the vote in 28 constituencies, but aren't likely to win any seats, a similar proposition to UKIP in 2015. Perhaps their best chance is in Ashfield, where Lee Anderson will presumably be standing for Reform - currently it reads 35% Labour; 23% Reform; 18% Tory, but this is a very incomplete picture, because in 2019 an independent won 27.6% of the vote in that seat and nearly won the constituency (he isn't properly represented in this MRP). That person is standing again so everything is very complicated in Ashfield. It's a possible four-way marginal!

Reform are also likely to insert themselves into several three-way marginals - in Boston, Bassetlaw, Clacton, Castle Point, South Basildon, Louth, Mansfield, Great Yarmouth, and NE Cambridge.

Greens forecast to hold their one seat, despite Lucas leaving, and they're not really close to winning anything else, although they may get themselves involved in a three-way fight for the two Isle of Wight seats.

The longer Sunak holds off calling a GE the worse it will be for them. And it boils my blood when I see him constantly telling journalists that the public dont want an election.

Samo wrote:The longer Sunak holds off calling a GE the worse it will be for them. And it boils my blood when I see him constantly telling journalists that the public dont want an election.

Agreed. Nothing can save them now. Even if the economy suddenly bounces (which it won't), they need to be seriously cleared out to force them to take a good long look at themselves. If it weren't for the useless FPTP system, I wouldn't actually see them being returned to power again for a generation - the right wing aren't really Tories, and as long as they continue to burn their own house down from the inside, the longer it'll be before they're considered as a serious party again.
The right wingers should sod off and form their own party, but I guess Tice has already given them a home. Ditto the extreme leftists who call themselves Labour.

The public doesn't want extremes; they just want some sensible, honest politics and policies, so they can reasonably get on with their own lives and not feel embarrassed about the politicians meant to represent their interests, rather than those of the political creasy pole climbers.

How pathetic are we? And how contemptuous of Palestinian lives?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68714128
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68737846

'Twas ever thus, I guess. Nothing much happens while tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians are murdered, but as soon as 7 'Western' aid workers are demonstrably murdered by the IDF, action occurs and Biden basically threatens Israel, forcing them to allow aid in (thereby admitting that they have been, in actual fact, preventing aid from reaching Gaza all along - oops).

Then there's the vacuous Deputy PM, no-mark Oliver Dowden, trying to claim that the Israeli campaign is somehow legitimate and that continuing to sell arms to Israel (despite the evidence in front of our own eyes) is just fine and dandy. Nauseating PoS.

All the while this BS verbiage is going on, Israel only concerns itself with 'realities on the ground' (all it's ever done throughout its history for the last ~80 years), and is allowed to continue its hideous campaign while 'the West' pretends to wring its hands. Truly disgusting.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza will never be resolved unfortunately, neither side will concede anything. Isreal will not stop until they have to their satisfaction completely eliminated Hamas. In doing so 1000s more will perish. Hamas will never give up. A gruesome stalemate will continue.

I'm more concerned with lack of coverage of Ukraine, we are getting saturated with news 24/7 of Gaza situation but Ukraine is still fighting a war against invaders.
I know I've mentioned this in past but focus being taken away is detrimental to support for Ukraine and will be even more so if Trump gets in. I can see him immediately pulling plug there.

mountain man wrote:The ongoing conflict in Gaza will never be resolved unfortunately, neither side will concede anything. Isreal will not stop until they have to their satisfaction completely eliminated Hamas. In doing so 1000s more will perish. Hamas will never give up. A gruesome stalemate will continue.

I'm more concerned with lack of coverage of Ukraine, we are getting saturated with news 24/7 of Gaza situation but Ukraine is still fighting a war against invaders.
I know I've mentioned this in past but focus being taken away is detrimental to support for Ukraine and will be even more so if Trump gets in. I can see him immediately pulling plug there.

Fundamental issue with Trump is that in his mind Zelensky slighted him by refusing to bend over backwards to create dirt on Hunter. That means Trump wants revenge, and that is more important to him than millions of lives. Add in to that the fact that Putin has his balls in a box really doesn't help

Israel trying to coerce the US and UK in to another Gulf war......Please don't fall for it.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Israel trying to coerce the US and UK in to another Gulf war......Please don't fall for it.

Quite. Love the fact (heavy irony here) that, essentially, an Israeli act of war (Israel assassinating high ranking Iranian military personnel in the Iranian Consulate in Syria) isn't condemned for what it is by 'the West', but Israel's call for sanctions on Iran following the latter's response the other day appears to be falling on sympathetic ears and 'the West' is condemning Iran in no uncertain terms. Absurd. I can just see the US or UK reaction if some of their top military were blown to pieces while in one of their Consulates somewhere. Just don't ask too much about Mosaddegh and the rise of the current Islamic Republic...
Still Israel has always been allowed carte blanche to conduct as many extra-judicial murders on foreign soil as it likes, based purely on its own 'intelligence', in the full knowledge of US support.

If anyone wants to know exactly what's going on with this sort of narrative, read 'Manufacturing Consent', by Herman and Chomsky. A bit heavy going in places, but right on the money. Applicable to the UK as well. Palestinians and Iranians clearly 'unworthy'....

Edit: I'll take the 'dislike' from someone as a positive, although it would be nice to discuss what your problem with the above actually is...

Well, there's a surprise. Israel takes the opportunity to increase its settlement building as part of its ongoing efforts to prevent any eventual solution to the issues with the Palestinian people:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/17/revealed-israel-has-sped-up-settlement-building-in-east-jerusalem-since-gaza-war-began

Realities on the ground again, while the rest of the world just sits on its arse, talks and wrings its hands.


Another interesting factoid re. the wonderfully democratic, obviously non-apartheid State of Israel: it is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and it does not allow IAEA access to its nuclear facilities. Lovely.

Just under two weeks away from the local elections, which will be an amusing preliminary before the main event in the autumn/winter.

The Tories are defending 985 local seats in this set of local elections; Labour 965; the Lib Dems 410.

The vast majority of seats up for contest this year were last contested in 2021, when the Tories were doing very well. How quickly things can change.

According to Rallings and Thrasher, the Tories vote in 2021 was at 40%....this year it's going to plummet. In 2023 the vote was down to 29%, and Rallings and Thrasher reckon that if it's the same number again this year then the Tories will lose around 500 seats. But it could well be lower than last year...

It could be further worsened by Reform nipping away at the Tories in some seats.

The Blackpool South by election is going to be on the same day, which will be an easy win for Labour. And Khan should extend his term as Labour mayor comfortably enough. There's also a lot of seemingly pointless 'Police and Crime Commissioners' up for re election, most of them are currently Tory, so that may represent another change, plus some other mayoral contests that hardly anyone seems to want.

Sunak's great plan for masterminding a comeback appears to revolve around removing the power of GPs to sign people off work. That really taps into what the people want and will get the votes, no doubt, Tory surge incoming.

It would be easier to take the Tories more seriously if they stopped choosing joke candidates like Susan Hall

Not that it is likely that I would ever vote for them, of course

Assume most will have seen this in the news :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68872398

Not quite sure why the police have to apologise for basically giving the man some good advice about not antagonising the pro Palistine march in which if he'd been allowed to cross road and confront them(which is obviously intended to do) he'd have almost certainly been assaulted. I watched footage on news and the officer was polite and was protecting him by preventing him going over road.
The quote of "looking openly Jewish" has been leapt on but seeing as there is a Palistine/Isreal conflict on at the moment given the way the man, who is the head of the Campaign for Antisemitism, was attired it was a reasonable assumption.
In retrospect given the fuss the quote has caused, maybe next time the officer won't use those words but I don't see it as offensive or provocative etc.

As ever these days, far too many people go looking for offence at every opportunity.

mountain man wrote:Assume most will have seen this in the news :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68872398

Not quite sure why the police have to apologise for basically giving the man some good advice about not antagonising the pro Palistine march in which if he'd been allowed to cross road and confront them(which is obviously intended to do) he'd have almost certainly been assaulted. I watched footage on news and the officer was polite and was protecting him by preventing him going over road.
The quote of "looking openly Jewish" has been leapt on but seeing as there is a Palistine/Isreal conflict on at the moment given the way the man, who is the head of the Campaign for Antisemitism, was attired it was a reasonable assumption.
In retrospect given the fuss the quote has caused, maybe next time the officer won't use those words but I don't see it as offensive or provocative etc.

As ever these days, far too many people go looking for offence at every opportunity.

Hadn't seen this latest on this issue, but have to admit I did wonder why initial stills of this person's interactions with the Met were a bit odd as carrying CAS logos - almost as if someone was along for the ride and they were really trying to get some 'anti-Semitism' on camera - when he initially claimed to have been just on the way from attending the Synagogue.

He was 'openly Jewish' (unless he was in fancy dress), so don't see a real problem with the words being used. The copper was clearly stating a fact, with a view to the obvious issue re. potential trouble with marchers and avoiding a potential problem. What he wasn't saying was that being 'openly Jewish' was any issue per se, even if that's how it's being deliberately viewed by clowns like Braverman and Sunak.

Yousaf on his way out. Lasted longer than I thought he would, to be fair.

Seems like they've struggling for an identity beyond indy? Sturgeon held it together but they're taking blows from all angles now

Nice. Lovely people the IDF...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw07wgrwzywo

Plus ça change...

Latest YouGov poll.

Labour 44%; Tories 18%; Reform 15%.

Come on, Nige, lead Reform and put the Tories in third.

Going to be another bruising day for Sunak with the local elections happening today. Will he even lead the Tories into the GE?

Who else is going to take on the job for a few months until they get smashed in a GE? Might as well just call it now if they're gonna replace Sunak